3.3 Socio-economic drivers

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market demands (Nuttall, 1992). After World War II, the administration of both Denmark and Canada could be termed as a “welfare colonialism” (Paine, 1977), ...
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3.3 Socio-economic drivers LEAD AUTHORS: THIERRY RODON, RIKKE BECKER JACOBSEN, CLIVE TESAR

Key messages • New international governance gaps continue to emerge in the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait (BBDS) region. Among the scenarios for future climate change and oil and gas exploration, the more extreme ones will make those gaps more problematic. Governance will exert a very strong influence on the outcome of most change processes in the region. • The region shows a very clear trend of more localized governance. Regional governments are increasingly becoming key players for domestic development and are increasingly empowered to enact policies aimed at offsetting negative trends affecting the region’s population. • Dependence on outside workers in various sectors, including service and public administration, is a current fact, with slightly different trends in Nunavut and Greenland. If the region’s population is to take an increasingly active part in governing and in benefiting from the changes to come, adequate access to relevant education and training will be required. This need will become particularly acute with industrial development and increasing devolution of governance. • Development of the formal economy is seen by many decision-makers as an important driver for societal development as well as independence in the region. A significant trend is the continued economic, social, and

Guiding questions What are the ongoing and future trends – within economy, demography, governance, education, and culture – that may potentially drive development in the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region? How do these trends interact? 3.3.1

Governance

The colonial history of the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region provides an overall context for the social and economic dynamics in the region. The colonization of the region was tightly connected to the exploitation of Arctic resources, from the early fur trade and whaling of the 17th and 18th centuries to the fishing and mining of the 20th century (Nuttall, 1992). Colonial administration played out differently in Nunavut and Greenland. In Greenland, for example, the Danish administration was characterized as being paternalistic up until World War II (Nuttall, 1992), with Inuit being somewhat economically and culturally “protected” – and isolated – from the outside world. In Nunavut, in contrast, the Canadian administration was more directly informed by Euro-Asian market demands (Nuttall, 1992). After World War II, the

cultural importance of the subsistence (“land-based”) economy. Fishing, hunting, and gathering activities are a key part of the region’s mixed economy, with the subsistence economy and the cash economy supporting each other. However, this interdependence is sensitive to changes in policy and climate. Although elements of a formal economy are required to underpin the subsistence economy, it is likely that tension between the two economies will increase as nonrenewable resource exploitation and associated activities affect local environments. Because of the social and cultural values embedded in the subsistence economy, changes to this economic system will have substantial impacts on Indigenous peoples in the region. • The strength of the Inuit language shows different trends within the region. Kalaallisut remains strong in Greenland. Inuktitut is widely used on the Nunavut side of the BBDS region but shows signs of erosion, especially in younger generations. Language is closely linked to issues of identity, well-being, governance, and education. • The BBDS region is still quite isolated (more so in Nunavut than in Greenland), but both areas show trends of increasing connectivity within and outside the region. Physical infrastructure improvements are a key driver of connectivity of various sorts, with implications for security, health, education, and various economic sectors.

administration of both Denmark and Canada could be termed as a “welfare colonialism” (Paine, 1977), in which it became important to improve the living standard of the Indigenous population by means of “modernization.” This modernization was implemented with great speed. The result was not only rapid social, economic, and cultural change that continues through today, but also historical and social trauma. 3.3.1.1

International cooperation and competition in the region

The Arctic is portrayed by actors within as well as outside the region as a vulnerable ecosystem, a climate change “canary in the coal mine,” a last frontier for resource exploitation, and a revived sphere of geopolitical interest. To Inuit living in the region, it is simply home, whether they were transported to the area within living memory (like the people of Resolute, Grise Fiord, and Qaanaaq) or have lived there for many generations. Based on emerging images of the Arctic, international competition and cooperation have evolved and are continuously evolving, with implications for the overall governance framework for the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region.

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Trends of international competition that are affecting development in the BBDS region include the rush to establish rights to emerging resources, be they continental rights or rights to new fish stocks entering the region. There may well be competition also for quotas of marine mammals that are projected to become increasingly limited in population size, such as narwhals and belugas. Quota levels are already viewed as unnecessarily restrictive by local hunters (Ford and Goldhar, 2012; Rodon 2014b). A major trend of international cooperation includes the establishment of the Arctic Council and its scientific working groups on natural and human development, as well as the established regional organizations that coordinate the governance of the living marine resources harvested by the industries and people of the region (e.g., the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, the North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission, the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission, the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization, the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization). Most recently, the five Arctic Ocean coastal states have begun engaging in scientific dialogue on the living marine resources of the central Arctic Ocean, in discussions that have expanded to include Iceland and some observer states (Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2015). Meetings in the spring of 2016 between the heads of state of Canada and the United States of America (USA) and between the Nordic countries and the USA have added more commitments to international cooperation in the Arctic, including commitments to conservation, sustainable development, and the inclusion of traditional knowledge in setting policy (Government of Canada, 2016; White House, 2016). New governance gaps continue to emerge, as environment, policy, and society change. One type of governance gap that could potentially affect the region is created by the new exploration activities of the extractive industries. When Cairn Energy was drilling for oil off Greenland (2010–2011), there were concerns in Canada about potential spills entering Canadian waters. A 1983 treaty exists between Canada and Denmark on cooperation relating to the marine environment (Agreement between the Government of Canada and the Government of the Kingdom of Denmark for Cooperation Relating to the Marine Environment, 1983), but it covers only consultation on such developments. The treaty does not establish a process for managing the shared body of water. Without such an agreement, continued industrial development that affects marine resources could be a driver of conflict. Bilateral cooperation across the Greenland/Canadian borders within the BBDS region is generally increasing. Bilateral agreements exist between Canada and Greenland in relation to the governance of shared fish resources (e.g., shrimp and Greenland halibut) and marine mammals (e.g., polar bears in the McClintock Channel). Increased scientific cooperation between Greenland and Canada is another significant trend. Increasing cooperation between the regional governments is also emerging. For example, Greenland and the Government of Nunavut signed, in 2000, a memorandum of understanding on cooperation. This memorandum prioritizes cooperation for the

sustainable management of polar bears and fisheries in waters common to Greenland and Nunavut. The Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC), which was established in 1977 (as the Inuit Circumpolar Conference), remains a vital player in pan-Arctic cooperation to enhance Inuit rights and perspectives in decision-making relevant to the region. ICC promotes Inuit rights and perspectives in international bodies such as the Arctic Council and the United Nations and also functions as a forum for Inuit in Canada and in Greenland to share information and formulate collective positions. An emergent ICC-sponsored body is currently considering the future of the Pikialasorsuaq/North Water Polynya, an important ice-free region in Baffin Bay (see Section 3.1.4 and Subchapter 6.2). As a newer trend, ICC Greenland is also making itself heard in relation to Greenland’s discussions of participatory decision-making within Inuit self-governance. 3.3.1.2

Localizing governance in the region

The shift toward more powers for governments in the region has been a long-term trend in the Canadian Arctic and in Greenland (see also Chapter 2). The creation of the Nunavut Territory in 1999 is a clear example of this trend. The Nunavut government has quasi-provincial powers, with the exception of land and nonrenewable resources management. Inuit of Nunavut express their rights to selfgovernment through the public Government of Nunavut. Inuit make up 85% of the Nunavut population (Statistics Canada, 2011a, 2011b) and also protect their Indigenous rights through co-management boards (boards designed to allow Indigenous peoples’ participation in decisions about land and wildlife) (White, 2008; Rodon, 2014b). Without the revenue of resource development, the territorial government has limited financial autonomy. At this point, 98% of its revenues are transferred from the Canadian government (Rodon, 2014a). The creation of the Nunavut territory was layered onto the 1993 Nunavut Land Claim Agreement (Agreement between the Inuit of the Nunavut Settlement Area and Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 1993) that confirmed Inuit ownership of more than 350,000 km2 of land (of which about 10% also includes mineral rights) and also created Inuit institutions to safeguard Inuit rights on those lands and elsewhere within the Nunavut Settlement Area. The Canadian territories are also negotiating powers on land and resources. A recent example is the 2013 devolution agreement between the Canadian government and the government of the Northwest Territories (Northwest Territories Lands and Resources Devolution Agreement, 2013), following a similar deal in the adjacent Yukon Territory. The Government of Nunavut is currently negotiating its own devolution deal. It should be noted, however, that this process will likely take several years if it follows the pattern of the previous two devolution agreements. Devolution of lands and resources would theoretically allow the Government of Nunavut to become less financially dependent on the federal government but would also likely increase pressure on the territorial government to promote more resource development in order to maintain or increase government revenues.

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Nunavut Legislative Assembly building

In Greenland, decolonization began in the 1970s, with international opinion and the ethno-national movement of Greenland’s elite laying the foundation for the devolution process that started with the establishment of Greenland Home Rule in 1979 (Dahl, 1986). In 2009, Greenlanders voted, in a national referendum, in favor of further independence in the form of Greenland Self-Government. This new arrangement transferred to Greenland the full rights to its underground resources as well as the possibility to “take home,” whenever the Greenland Self-Government decides, some of the remaining fields of responsibility that are still placed within Danish institutions. Other fields of responsibility can be transferred only when Greenland decides to be an autonomous state (Lov om Grønlands Selvstyre, 2009; see also “The Greenland Home Rule scheme,” www.stm.dk/_a_2566.html). Throughout Greenland history, mineral resources have been exploited for their economic potential (Rosing et al., 2014), but these resources have received renewed attention since the commencement of Greenland Self-Government in 2009. While welfare and well-being through economic growth is often presented as a goal in itself, economic dependence on Denmark remains a key concern within the Greenland government. An annual block grant from Denmark accounts for one-third of Greenland’s gross domestic product (GDP), and leading politicians have been explicit about the connection between their aspirations for increased independence from Denmark and their choice of an active mineral resource extraction policy. However, a report by a panel of academics from Greenland and Denmark (Rosing  et  al., 2014) suggests that mineral development is unlikely to cover the costs of full independence plus the incremental costs associated with demographic issues (e.g., more elders, fewer young people, and increased social expenditures). In 2013, the Greenland government explicitly allowed for the mining of radioactive materials in Greenland.

Devolution has proved to be a challenge in terms of capacity, and the Greenland Home Rule government has depended on Danish labor immigration in, for example, administration, hospitals, and schools. Greenland still needs foreign labor, though the picture is slowly changing as more and more Greenlanders are taking secondary, vocational, and higher education. The Government of Nunavut also has trouble filling its positions (25% of government positions were unfilled in 2014) (Government of Nunavut, 2014). If Inuit access to education is not improved and if other barriers to Inuit participation in the bureaucracy are not lowered, then devolution might foster the need for more administrators from southern areas. This situation may create an in-migration and would lower the percentage of Inuit employees in the government, thus making it harder to fulfill the Nunavut Land Claim Agreement (NLCA) obligation (Article 23) to have a representative bureaucracy (meaning 85% Inuit; the current percentage in the government administration is only 50%). 3.3.1.3

Shifting paradigms for natural resource management

Various concerns for ecological, economic, and social sustainability have gradually emerged to shape natural resource governance paradigms in the region. Competing policy goals are shaping governance design, including decision-making procedures, planning practices, design of access rights, and monitoring arrangements. In turn, these governance institutions have different impacts on the state of the natural resources, on local societies, and on both the formal and subsistence economies of the self-governed polities. In the BBDS region, there is also an ongoing epistemological debate that has a direct bearing on resource management. National and regional governments are increasingly taking into

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account traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) when making management decisions (CEAA, 2015). Increasingly, holders of traditional ecological knowledge are questioning the scientific knowledge that constitutes the other significant knowledge input to decision-making (Dowsley and Wenzel, 2008). When the two types of knowledge disagree, the lack of consensus has the potential to delay decision-making, to repeatedly change the course of management (e.g., in the Greenland coastal fisheries; Jacobsen and Raakjær, 2012), or to increase tension over the decisions made, depending on which sort of knowledge is held to have prevailed in determining policy. Finding a way to truly integrate these epistemologies could be a valuable contribution to future adaptive management. The natural resources can be divided into living and non-living resources, for which different trends are observable (see also Chapters 6 and 7). 3.3.1.4

Living resources

Fisheries are already the most regionally important living resource in terms of economic value and employment, and they may well become even more important as economically important new species move northward into the region and more investment is put into the industry. The weight of the industry is more apparent in Greenland than in Nunavut. In Greenland, the fisheries industry creates over half of the region’s service and goods export (57% of 4.2 billion Danish kroner, DKK, in 2011, or approximately 469 million Canadian dollars, CAD), and the fishery sector has been estimated to create employment corresponding to 3,500 fulltime jobs (Copenhagen Economics, 2013). In Nunavut, federal government figures for 2013–2014 showed the total market value of Nunavut’s fishery was CAD 86 million (CanNor, 2015; see also Chapter 6 of this report), with 370 people employed seasonally in the offshore and inshore fisheries. (The CAD 86 million value accrues largely to out-of-territory ships and crews, mostly from Newfoundland and Labrador.) Since the 1980s, the total allowable catch (TAC) paradigm within living resources management has increasingly balanced ecological sustainability concerns against the more immediate economic and employment concerns of those groups in society that are directly dependent on fishing. TAC policy is a hot topic in the region, as quotas are often perceived as constraints imposed by central governments or even international opinion. The scientific knowledge base for TAC decision-making is often contested. A recent but seemingly significant trend is the influence of Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification on fishery policy-making; the certification requirements tend to favor more restrictive TAC policies in the Greenland fisheries (Jacobsen and Raakjær, 2012). Trends of consolidation and privatization are other significant and perhaps even more profound governance drivers in relation to living resources. In Greenland (Jacobsen and Raakjær, 2014) and the northwest Atlantic in general (Holm  et  al., 2015), trawler profitability, privatization, and consolidation are increasingly being promoted as a counterweight to previous policies that emphasized the need to sustain local settlements based on arguments of regional development or cultural identity alongside overall economic growth. The individual transferable quotas (ITQ) reform of

the coastal Greenland halibut fishery in 2012 is the latest example of this development (Jacobsen, 2013). The expected impacts of consolidation include increased competitiveness on the international market for the consolidated seafood companies, as well as increased taxable incomes to fund Greenland’s welfare state (Government of Greenland, 2009). Fishing access closure through consolidation, privatization, and a more restrictive TAC policy critically affects fishery-dependent families and communities that have few options other than fisheries and hunting to earn the cash income that also covers the running costs of subsistence activities. In economic terms, the closure of fisheries access affects the gross national product (GNP) when income alternatives are lacking because municipal social welfare budgets will then have to compensate for the loss of local income by increasing expenditures on public welfare (Delaney et al., 2012; Hendriksen, 2013). In Nunavut, the value of commercial fisheries has risen over the past few years, particularly along the east coast of Baffin Island. There is momentum behind these fisheries, as well as interest in exploring other fishing opportunities off Nunavut. In early 2015, government agencies and Inuit organizations combined to invest more than CAD 7 million in several exploratory fisheries and in research on existing fisheries (Government of Canada, 2015). With fisheries perhaps expanding as a resource, especially in the context of climate change and the arrival of new species, this sector has the capacity to increase employment options for Inuit communities that presently have few such options. Still, any expansion of fisheries resource use will also be determined by the governance arrangements in place. Under the land claims agreement in Nunavut, all Inuit have the right to hunt/fish and sell without any license or reporting, but the governments of Nunavut and Canada contend that this right does not extend to commercial harvesting for the specific purpose of selling outside of Nunavut. Thus, commercial harvesting requires a permit. In Greenland, commercial hunting and fishing is regulated with quotas and a license system. With few exceptions, only persons or companies holding a commercial license are allowed to market their catch nationally and internationally. In both Nunavut and Greenland, support programs for hunters and fishers will probably also play a role in the biologically, economically, and socially sustainable expansion of the fisheries. Other living resources (particularly seals, walrus, whales, and caribou/reindeer) make up a substantial portion of diets in the region, with a replacement value of millions of dollars (ITK and ICC Canada, 2012; Jeppesen, 2012). There are indications that the combination of climate change and socio-economic factors – such as equipment issues, cost of gas, and tensions between the wage economy and the subsistence economy – are reducing access to these traditional foods. Organizations in Nunavut cite this situation as exacerbating food insecurity. There is also value in the byproducts of subsistence hunting, such as walrus and narwhal tusks. There are indications of growth in the market for these products, particularly in China (Cooper, 2015). Living resources in the BBDS region are further discussed in Chapter 6.

Subchapter 3.3 · Socio-economic drivers

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Non-living resources

5 billion, or almost CAD 1 billion). In 2013, the subsequent parliament lifted a previous ban on uranium mining.

3.3.1.5

On the Nunavut side of the BBDS region, the federal and Nunavut governments are investing millions of dollars in geoscience to further investigate the mineral and petroleum potential of the land and the seabed (CanNor, 2014). Both the Nunavut government and the land claims organization Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated (NTI) support efforts to attract increased investment in the sector. Despite this enthusiasm, the only viable development at the time of this writing is the Mary River iron mine, which recently started production on northern Baffin Island. There is some local concern about resource development, as communities fear that aspects of that development may compromise their ability to harvest the animals on which they rely and may also more generally affect their livelihood in negative ways. In 2014, a court challenge was launched by the community of Clyde River, together with the community’s mayor and the local organization representing hunters and trappers, against a decision by Canada’s National Energy Board to authorize seismic testing in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. The challenge was rejected in the Federal Court of Appeal, but the hamlet has been granted leave by the Supreme Court of Canada to appeal the decision. Hearings were held in November 2016, and the Court is expected to rule on the case in the spring of 2017 (Rodon, 2018). Opposition to seismic testing in the region has also been voiced by many Inuit organizations, and NTI and the Nunavut Marine Council have proposed a moratorium on seismic testing in Baffin Bay. The federal government has refused to consider a moratorium before it conducts a strategic environmental assessment (Nunatsiaq News, 2014; Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada, 2014). That assessment has now been contracted through the Nunavut Impact Review Board for delivery in 2019. Environmental and conservation organizations are active in the region. The WWF has offices in Iqaluit and Nuuk and runs various projects mostly centered on the “Last Ice Area,” the area of projected resilient summer sea ice. Oceans North has also funded work in the region, and Greenpeace helped to support the Clyde River court case. Nunavut land use plans are drafted by the Nunavut Planning Commission, a co-management board established by the Nunavut Land Claim Agreement. These plans are intended to set the template for where development is allowed and encouraged and for where traditional land uses and conservation will be prioritized. Only two plans have been approved by the federal government (North Baffin and Keewatin); work on a Nunavutwide land use plan (which would supersede the regional plans) has been delayed by a lack of funding. Public hearings on the draft plan are now scheduled to take place in 2017. In Greenland, applications for extractive industries have been regulated under the Greenland Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum since 1998, with the governance framework being gradually adjusted since that time. Within the recent years of Greenland Self-Government (since 2009), the trend has been to continue and even intensify an active strategy for mineral and oil extraction. In 2012, the Greenland Parliament passed the LargeScale Projects Act, which provides a framework for large-scale projects (defined by total construction costs exceeding DKK

The mandatory use of environmental impact assessments (EIAs) and social impact assessments (SIAs) is a prominent trend, though still in its early stages. It is notable that, due to a variety of reasons, including political will, EIAs have in fact proven efficient in influencing industry planning (Hansen, 2010). The recent increase in project activity and planning has been met with an equally increased demand for public involvement and public access to information. A second trend in the governance of extractive resources is thus the expansion of governance discussions to include a strong focus on public participation, as well as social impacts. In 2014, a nongovernmental organization (NGO) for better citizen participation in extractive industry projects was created – uniting the Inuit Circumpolar Council, ICC Greenland, Transparency Greenland, and KNAPK (Association of Fishermen and Hunters in Greenland) with international, national, and local environmental NGOs (e.g., WWF and Friends of Nuuk Fjord). The confluence of interests and the emergence of joint projects among international environmental NGOs and Inuit fisher/hunter interests seems to represent a third trend in the natural resource governance landscape of the BBDS region (NGO Koalitionen for Bedre Borgerinddragelse, 2014). Non-living resources are further discussed in Chapter 7. 3.3.2

Demography

3.3.2.1

General population growth

In terms of population growth, the BBDS region shows different tendencies on the Greenland and Nunavut sides. The population of Nunavut’s Qikiqtaaluk Region (formerly called the Baffin Island region) is 19,498 (Nunavut Bureau of Statistics, 2015), with a growth rate of 7% from 2006 to 2011 (Statistics Canada, 2011a, 2011b). This growth is explained by a high fertility rate and lately by a positive migration rate. In 2015, the population of Greenland was 55,984 (52,515 within the BBDS part), with a negative growth rate (Statistics Greenland, 2015). In 2015, the Greenland population fell below 56,000 for the first time since 1997. It is difficult to predict future population trends in the Nunavut portion of the BBDS region. Nunavut has a very young population, with a median age of 24.1 years (Statistics Canada, 2011a, 2011b). For many years, people have expected a drop in fertility rate, but there is no sign yet of a drop. The current numbers show a fertility rate of just under 3 births per woman. Because replacement value is considered to be 2.1, the present fertility rate suggests a continuation of the Nunavut trend of a young and rapidly growing population. This population growth rate is both an opportunity and a challenge. The growing population will continue to put pressure on education, health, and housing services and on both the traditional and wage economies to create employment. However, if these numerous challenges are met, this young population could prove to be an asset for Nunavut.

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The population impact of resource development in Nunavut is for the moment quite moderate. The impact statement for the fly-in/fly-out Mary River project (where most employees fly in for a two-week shift and then fly back home for two weeks off) states that, “The potential for the Project to cause non-Inuit migration into communities, as well as the potential for Inuit to move out of the communities as a result of the Project was assessed. Neither of these possibilities is identified as significantly affecting the composition and numbers of the North Baffin populations or the community social fabric” (Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation, 2012, p. 17). Because the transportation infrastructure in Nunavut is so limited, it is likely that future developments would also be fly-in/fly-out, thus minimizing the impact on permanent immigration (see Chapters 7 and 10). For Greenland, the 2014 prognosis from Statistics Greenland is for a decline in the population. If fertility, mortality, and migration alone influence population size, then based on past and current trends, the total population can be expected to fall to 54,800 by 2030. A current trend is for net migration to be negative and for emigration to exceed the birth surplus (Statistics Greenland, 2015). 3.3.2.2

Urbanization

Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut, has witnessed a steady increase in population (8.3% increase between 2006 and 2011, according to Statistics Canada), and this trend is likely to continue. The community will most likely see an increase of population associated with resource development projects because all of the regional services are located here. Greenland, too, shows trends of urbanization and concentration. Overall, the number of residents living in settlements and small towns has been declining, particularly within the last 15 years. Since 1999, the number has declined by almost one-third, from just below 10,000 to about 7,500 (Statistics Greenland, 2015). As a result of this concentration process, the age composition is very different across the country, with relatively more elderly in settlements and smaller towns. This trend will become even stronger as the population ages. Still, there are nuances to the Greenland trend. Some settlements (e.g., in the Upernavik district) have not experienced this decline in population. This difference may be due to local opportunities for earning income from the local catch, sale, and production of Greenland halibut (Hendriksen, 2013). 3.3.2.3

Migration out of the region

For Nunavut, the latest statistics show a rapid growth of the number of Inuit living in the south (Morris, 2016). Reasons for moving south are varied; they include opportunities for health treatment and education and employment (Patrick and Tomiak, 2008) but also the escape of bad circumstances and poor living conditions in Nunavut (Morris, 2016). The outmigration seems to be greatest from western Nunavut, but we see an increase of Inuit in southern Canada (Statistics Canada, 2006, 2011b). At this time, the outmigration is offset by the very high fertility rate in Nunavut. The fly-in/fly-out

practice associated with resource development could also increase outmigration by encouraging northern workers to relocate to big centers where flights are available and where there is better and cheaper access to housing and services. In Greenland, despite relatively high fertility rates (compared to, e.g., Denmark), the population has remained fairly constant in recent decades due to net outmigration. Accompanying this net outmigration is, more recently, some “brain drain,” as an increasing number of young Greenlanders are not returning to Greenland after completing their education abroad, primarily in Denmark. Identified drivers of this phenomenon include a lack of student housing and trainee positions within Greenland, as well as concerns for the availability of housing and daycare and the quality of children’s school education upon return (Government of Greenland, 2015b; Sermitsiaq News, 2015). 3.3.2.4

Worker immigration

In Nunavut, the trend of increased worker migration will affect mostly Iqaluit. Resource development and a localization of government would bring more southern workers to the capital, thus affecting the balance between Inuit and non-Inuit. Already, the Iqaluit population is 50% non-Inuit. The effect on the composition of the Nunavut population outside Iqaluit should be quite small because this population is 85% Inuit. As noted above, an increase of government workers from outside Nunavut may be expected if a devolution agreement covering lands and resources goes ahead in Nunavut. In Greenland, a similar increase was seen in the 1980s in regard to Danish immigration, but this trend has since reversed. The trend might, however, change again if mineral exploitation creates a new demand for migrant workers. Danes currently make up approximately 10% of the population in Greenland. In the period from 2008 to 2013, the immigration of citizens from outside Denmark doubled, but in 2015, the total immigration was still only 974 persons. In the resource extraction sector, the established trend on the Canadian side of the BBDS region is to use fly-in/fly-out. This pattern of employment has been shown to be corrosive to family relationships and to cultural continuity (Gibson and Klinck, 2005). Due to this fly-in/fly-out model, only a small immigration of labor is forecasted on the Canadian side, even in the scenarios of high resource development (see Subchapter 3.4 for a description of the scenarios considered in this BBDS assessment). In Greenland, the immigration changes might be more dramatic, and the prospect has already caused much debate – e.g., about social dumping and pressure on the health infrastructure. As noted above, Inatsisartut (the Greenland Parliament) passed the Large-Scale Projects Act in 2012. This act facilitates the influx of foreign labor while also attempting to prevent the payment of low wages to foreign workers. International investors have estimated a need for 2,000–2,250 migrant workers (primarily Chinese) for a planned aluminum smelter to be constructed and operated by Alcoa in the vicinity of Maniitsoq (north of Nuuk). The estimated need for a planned iron mining project to be constructed and operated by London Mining (the so-called Isua project, close to Nuuk) is 1,000–3,000 workers (primarily Chinese) (London Mining Greenland A/S Isua, 2012). These

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Subchapter 3.3 · Socio-economic drivers

Pang Harbour, Pangnirtung, Nunavut

levels of foreign labor would make every tenth citizen in Greenland a Chinese worker, as fly-in/fly-out has not been presented as a relevant option for Greenland. Instead, plans have been to accommodate workers in camps outside the towns. In the service sector, the whole BBDS region can expect an increase of outside workers in the scenarios of high resource development (see Subchapter 3.4 for scenario descriptions). The Inuit Circumpolar Council has noted that a dramatic increase of worker immigration in connection with large-scale projects could make Inuit a minority in the region and would call for the specification of Inuit rights in the legislation of the self-governing territories (Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic, AACA, stakeholder consultation. See Chapter 1 for a description of the AACA consultation process.) ICC International furthermore states that, “The pace of resource development has profound implications for Inuit. A proper balance must be struck. Inuit desire resource development at a rate sufficient to provide durable and diversified economic growth, but constrained enough to forestall environmental degradation and an overwhelming influx of outside labour” (ICC, 2011, p. 1). 3.3.3

Economy

3.3.3.1

Formal economy

According to the 2013 Nunavut Economic Outlook, Nunavut is “set to embark on a prolonged period of economic growth” (Impact Economics, 2013, p. 17). The following trends are observed: • Government is still the main economic sector and could increase with devolution. • Mining is the biggest hope for major capital investment, job creation, and business opportunity, but at this time the industry is quite small.

• Infrastructure projects will also be important: CAD 100 million federal transfer for public housing, the Iqaluit international airport project, the Nanisivik Naval Facility, and the Mary River Project. In a future scenario with a high level of mining development (see Subchapter 3.4), this sector would become very important in the Baffin Island economy. • Nunavut fisheries has been the sector with most growth in recent years, with more quota allocations and investments in equipment and research. This trend might continue, but climate change and ocean acidification could have major impacts on this industry because fish and feed stocks are sensitive to changes in water temperature and acidity. The types and timing of fisheries activities will change with climate change. For Greenland halibut, for instance, the inshore ice-based fishery will experience a decrease in available season, while the offshore fishery from boats will experience a longer season. • The regulatory environment could also affect the fisheries industry (through agreements with Greenland, for example, but also through competition with southern-based fisheries). Nunavut still lacks a deep-water port. • Tourism has a potential for growth. In 2011, more people were employed in the tourism industry than in mining (Impact Economics, 2013). The arts sector has always been strong in Nunavut but could be affected by the development of other sectors, as with few exceptions, employment in the arts is less lucrative. In Greenland, the current national economic situation is dismal. The growth rate has been negative for a couple of years, and growth prospects are dim. This situation is reflected in various economic indicators, including unemployment and also net migration. Public finances are under pressure not only in the short run but also in the medium to long run due to an aging population. Experts (Økonomisk Råd, 2014) warn that unchanged policies

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are simply not an option and that significant reforms are needed to ensure both fiscal sustainability and a more dynamic and growing economy.

Arctic indigenous peoples. It takes money to pursue traditional activities; households with higher incomes can, and do, choose to spend income on these activities” (Poppel, 2015, p. 55).

In recent years, the economy has benefited from increasing prices for seafood (particularly shrimp). This price increase is masking falling catches, and the biological advice indicates declining stocks. Falling quotas are thus part of the scenario. Fishing has benefited from the recent appearance of mackerel, but the medium-term implications are still uncertain.

The informal economy includes harvesting activities (hunting, fishing, trapping, and gathering) and also artistic activities (such as carving and sewing). Not all of these cultural activities are “traditional”; many are adaptations by younger artists who use elements of traditional culture but incorporate them into new fashion designs, television shows, or new musical forms. Harvesting activities are still very prominent in the BBDS region, especially in the smaller communities but also in towns like Nuuk and Iqaluit. The informal economy is thus contributing greatly to food security. For instance, a study of extended families in the Baffin Island community of Clyde River concluded that country foods contributed about 20% of the families’ total income (Harder and Wenzel, 2012; see also Chapter 4).

Previous enthusiasm surrounding oil and mining has waned. A ruby mine is under construction in Qeqertarsuatsiaat, south of Nuuk, and a few other projects are being planned. The exact impact of oil and mining projects on the economy in the near future is highly uncertain. Exploitation of natural resources can play an important role in the future to ensure a process toward a more self-sustaining economy. This trajectory also requires that these projects be used to create activities and employment for domestic enterprises and workers; if not, the social and financial gains from the projects would be limited. There is scope for increasing value added in fisheries and tourism, but these activities are not likely in themselves to have a decisive growth impact. The Arctic tourism industry in the BBDS region is, however, a means to diversify the region’s historical reliance on the resource industry. Tourism is often promoted as having an important role in economic development and diversification, and this sector may contribute to curbing the negative impacts of a boom–bust cycle in areas where resource-based economies are in decline or in flux, such as in the BBDS region. Tourism also enables local people to be employed on a seasonal basis while also allowing time to engage in traditional and cultural activities (see Chapter 8). Logistics remain an important challenge, with a small population scattered across a large country and difficult and expensive options for domestic and international transport. So-called small-scale disadvantages pose a challenge in many areas and constitute a potential cost driver and an impediment to economic development. Social and economic inequalities are relatively large, and a number of indicators point to poor living conditions for a substantial part of the population. Shortage of housing is also an issue (Skatte- og Velfærdskommissionen, 2010; Government of Greenland, 2015b; see also Chapters 4 and 10). 3.3.3.2

Informal economy

The economy of Arctic societies is characterized by the significance of the mixed economy, in which the formal and informal economies interact (Wenzel, 1981; Quigley and McBride, 1987; Usher and Weihs, 1989; Usher et al., 2003). Thus, the trend is for the formal and informal economies to be each other’s prerequisites rather than each other’s competitors. As the Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA) concludes, “A combination of traditional activities and cash employment, the mixed economy of the Arctic, is the prevailing lifestyle of

After public outcry, a moratorium on Baffin Island caribou hunting was changed in 2015 to an annual quota of 250, but it is clear that hunting pressure is affecting the sustainability of the practice of hunting that population. Human population growth and other factors, such as the growth of informal markets for wild foods, are also increasing the pressure on wildlife resources, especially around larger communities (see Chapter 6). There are large differences between the country food markets in Greenland and Nunavut. In Greenland, local food markets date back to colonial times, when they served Danish non-hunters. Today these markets serve all people but are most prevalent in larger towns. In Iqaluit, Nunavut, a local country food market has developed through a public market held twice a year and also through a Facebook page. Commercialization of country food is one component of addressing food insecurity issues in Nunavut (Ford et al., 2016). As the SLiCA survey (Poppel, 2015) also showed, informal sharing is still prevalent in the Arctic. The development of extractive industries could have contradictory impacts on subsistence (“land-based”) activities. Such development could, on the one hand, provide more financial means, thus allowing people to buy better equipment and gain better access to wild foods. However, work schedules – especially long shift work – could also negatively affect landbased (subsistence) activities (Rodon and Lévesque, 2014). The enclosure of work sites is another potential issue. Even at an early resource-exploration stage, local hunters from Nuuk have already experienced exclusion from common lands where they once hunted caribou. At the moment, little research has been conducted, and the few available results are inconclusive. There are also concerns about seismic work and mining-related shipping potentially having a negative impact on the availability or accessibility of marine resources (DFO, 2012). Warming may initially affect some Arctic species positively (see Subchapter 6.3), but climate change has already negatively affected land-based activities because of the stresses created for some species and because of the greater difficulty of traveling on land and sea ice for hunting, fishing, trapping, and gathering. This consideration was indeed a main concern that ICC, KNAPK, and Qaanaaq community members expressed in the AACA consultations (see Chapter 1).

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The carving sector could also be affected by the development of extractive industries. In a low-development scenario (see Subchapter 3.4), carving could continue. In a high-development scenario, however, many of the carvers would probably be employed in a different sector. This shift could lead to lower carving production but also better-quality production (Impact Economics, 2013). 3.3.4

Education and culture

3.3.4.1

Formal education

Education is also an economic driver in the BBDS region, through public investment and also through the increase in human capital. Better access to formal education would diminish the outmigration of students who, at this time, must go south or go abroad to study. Education is a priority issue for the BBDS region, as discussed in Chapter 5. The Nunavut side of the BBDS region offers the whole range of primary and secondary education, but at this time there is no university in the Canadian Arctic. Nunavut Arctic College is a community college that provides training programs and also delivers two university programs accredited by southern universities (teacher training and nursing). A law program was offered in Iqaluit through a southern university from 2001 to 2005 and will be offered again in 2017 through a different university. School graduation rates in Nunavut are slowly increasing but are still the lowest in Canada. An improvement in graduation rates and the creation of a local university would help to reverse the trend of increasing proportions of southern workers in public administration and service jobs.

The Greenland trend, however, is in the direction of improving educational levels. From 2003 to 2013, the number of persons with a completed education above primary school (i.e., above grade 10 or 11) increased by 6%, to 15,105 persons in 2013 (34% of the population). 3.3.4.2

Inuit education

On both sides of the BBDS region, traditional education is informal and still occurs today within traditional cultural practices, mixed economies, and traditional systems such as food systems (Poppel, 2015). In the Canadian Arctic, some researchers contend that the Western system of education has eroded Inuit culture without allowing the people to fully participate in the new economy (Irwin, 1989; NTI, 2007), and many people in Nunavut are concerned that Nunavut youth are not adequately prepared in either form of education – Inuit or Western (Impact Economics, 2013).

MJ Photography/Alamy Stock Photo

Greenland offers a range of secondary, college, and university educational options. In 2005, the educational aim of the

Greenland Parliament was to increase the share of citizens with a qualifying education (that is, education beyond the 10-year elementary education; Boolsen, 2017) from one-third to two-thirds. The 2015 educational plan of the Government of Greenland states that the overall goal is for 70% of a year group leaving elementary school to obtain a qualifying education before the age of 35 (Government of Greenland, 2015a). Educational performance is currently unsatisfactory in terms of these stated aims. In 2013, 34% of men over 16 held a secondary or higher degree; for women, the proportion was 37% (Statistics Greenland, 2013). Many people leave public school (10th grade) with insufficient proficiency in subjects such as Greenlandic, Danish, and mathematics – and with a lack of motivation for continuing their education. Half of today’s cohort does not receive an education relevant for the existing labor market.

Ilimmarfik University of Greenland, Nuuk

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This situation could be changed by two initiatives. The first one is exemplified by the new Piqqusilirivvik Inuit Cultural Learning Centre in Clyde River. This facility is dedicated “to enabling the transfer of traditional culture and knowledge, taught in the Inuit language and based on the guiding principles of Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit” (Nunavut Arctic College, 2017; see also Chapter 5). The second initiative, the creation of an Inuit Nunangat university, is being discussed. The establishment of such an institution could greatly improve access to a knowledge economy but still contribute to maintaining the core elements of Inuit values and culture. In West Greenland, formal education has been considered a key driver in the modernization process that began in the 1950s. The resulting educational system has provided access to the knowledge economy, as Greenlanders are increasingly taking on key positions and functions in institutions such as schools, hospitals, and government agencies. Today, concerns about threats to Inuit knowledge in Greenland are being raised regarding climate change and the resulting challenges to subsistence activities (comments from ICC Greenland and the Greenland Ministry of Education, Church, Culture and Equality, in the AACA stakeholder consultation; see Chapter 1). ICC Greenland recommends that the teaching of Inuit knowledge be incorporated within the formal educational system (ICC Greenland). 3.3.4.3

Inuit language

Maintaining Indigenous languages is generally considered by the Indigenous peoples of the Arctic as being important for the identity of the individual as well as cultural continuity (Poppel, 2015). In the Qikiqtaaluk region, the Canadian census shows that between 2001 and 2011, the proportion of respondents who reported using Inuktitut most often at home declined from 68% to 64% (Statistics Canada, 2001, 2011b). Qikiqtaaluk Region nevertheless remains the Nunavut region where Inuktitut is the strongest. In order to understand the trend in Inuktitut usage in the Qikiqtaaluk region, one must distinguish between Iqaluit, where more than 50% of the inhabitants are non-Inuit, and the other communities, where Inuit constitute a strong majority. Figure 3.25 shows this difference, with 45% of Iqaluit inhabitants having Inuktitut as a mother tongue compared to 92% of residents in the other communities of Baffin Island. These numbers clearly show that Inuktitut is much stronger outside of Iqaluit – a city where Inuktitut is threatened by the prevalence of non-Inuktitut speakers and where 38% of Inuktitut speakers don’t speak it at home. Another indicator of the erosion of Inuktitut is the important difference between people having Inuktitut as their mother tongue (74%) and the people speaking Inuktitut most often at home (64%) (Statistics Canada, 2011b). In Iqaluit, although 45% of Iqalummiut (residents of Iqaluit) have Inuktitut as a mother tongue, only 28% speak it as their primary language at home. The other communities of Baffin Island report 92% of the people having Inuktitut as their mother tongue and 87%

Proportion, % 100

Mother Tongue Inuit language spoken most often at home

80 60 40 20 0

Iqaluit

Baffin Island excluding Iqaluit

Nunavut

Figure 3.25 Proportion of Inuktitut (Inuit language) speakers in different parts of Nunavut (data compiled from Statistics Canada, 2011b).

speaking it most often at home. These gaps suggest a significant erosion in Inuit language use between generations. Resource development and devolution would certainly reinforce these language trends, by bringing more non-Inuit speakers to Iqaluit. In the communities, resource development could also have an impact through employment because mines require their employees to speak English. On the other side of the BBDS region, based on various experts’ subjective evaluations, Greenlandic (Kalaallisut) is estimated to be the mother tongue of 70% of Greenland’s people, with the remainder having Danish as their mother tongue (15%) or being naturally bilingual (15%) (Langgaard, 2001). Based on these numbers and the historical evolution of language in Greenland, Kalaallisut is judged to be a thriving mother tongue language in Greenland today and is expected to remain so for many decades to come (Langgaard, 2001). For the Greenlandic language, the question is no longer one of language survival but rather of how to develop the language into one that is essential to society and complete in covering all domains of present-day life and all levels of abstractions. The quality of Greenlandic language education is a critical driver in this process. The digitalization strategy of the Greenland Self-Government has prioritized the development of language technology, which has taken off at a considerable speed and could be considered one trend supporting the development of the Greenlandic language. A second supportive trend could be the emergence of new literature (e.g., Korneliussen, 2014) that takes as a point of departure the interests and concerns of the young generations. A third possible trend is the growth of the Internet, with its potential for building international language proficiency. This trend, however, is currently counterbalanced by high Internet prices, which make Internet access unavailable to many (Langgaard, 2015). Both strengths and weaknesses are connected to the continuing use of Indigenous languages, including those of the BBDS region: Inuktitut and Kalaallisut (Greenlandic). The Arctic Human Development Report (Larsen and Fondahl, 2015) points out that language retention is connected to the concepts of cultural

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vitality and fate control (i.e., controlling one’s own destiny), which contribute to well-being. The report also points out that in Greenland, mastery of only Greenlandic (and not also Danish) is a limiting factor in accessing post-secondary education. 3.3.4.4

Connection with the rest of the world

At this time, the Nunavut side of the BBDS region is poorly connected to the rest of the world, with no deep-water port in the communities and only one regional airport able to accommodate large jets (see details in Chapter 10). Mobile phone service is available only in Iqaluit. Internet access is provided by satellite and is very slow and unreliable, but since 2005 all Nunavut communities have at least been able to access broadband Internet through a government-sponsored program. Internet in parts of the Nunavut side of the region could become much faster if the Arctic Fibre project goes forward. A submarine fiber-optic Internet cable is planned to link China directly to Europe, but the project offers also the possibility (for a substantial fee) to connect the southern Baffin Island communities to the main cable. This connection would provide access to high-speed Internet, thus allowing the development of an Internet-based economy and giving access to telehealth systems and online education. Internet access is also used to connect families who live scattered across the region (and the entire Arctic), to coordinate events ranging from political participation (e.g., demonstrations in Greenland and Nunavut) to food sharing (e.g., the “Feeding My Family” Facebook page in Nunavut), and to express Inuit culture and engage in Inuit activism (e.g.,‘Sealfies’ in which people post pictures of themselves wearing seal products). A greater availability of Internet access will also likely increase opportunities for both the formal and informal economies. Already, a thriving Internet-based market exists for arts and crafts producers and harvesters from the region to sell their wares in Nunavut and beyond (Nordicity Group and Uqsiq Communications, 2010) Greenland also shows trends of increasing connectivity. In 2009, Nuuk and Qaqortoq were connected to the Internet through a fiber-optic cable running to Iceland and Canada. The remainder of the west coast is connected to the Internet through a 1,410 km chain of radio stations. For the east coast and the northern part of the west coast, Internet connections are via satellite. Obviously, the Internet comes cheaper, faster, and more reliably to residents in Nuuk and Qaqortoq than anywhere else in Greenland. The reason most often provided by citizens in Greenland for not having an Internet connection is the associated costs (including the purchase of a computer). Notwithstanding these considerations, 72% of the population has in-home access to the Internet. Internet penetration is greatest among town dwellers, with an occurrence of 75% compared to 53% in small settlements (HS Analyse, 2013). A PhD study of online distance teaching in Greenland schools (Øgaard, 2016) shows that distance teaching has been

perceived as a technical solution to the problem of inadequate access to professional teaching. The most prominent example in Greenland shows how a village school, through the Internet, has been connected to professional teachers from a town school. In this way, the teaching obtains legitimacy among parents, teachers, and students. To date, distance teaching has been about establishing a traditional school situation, even though distance teaching for primary school children holds strong progressive potentials for pedagogical development toward self-governance, cooperation, and the solid acquisition of functional academic skills (Øgaard, 2016). This study implies that distance teaching is gaining support and legitimacy but has not yet realized its potential for progressive pedagogical development. Greenland currently plans to expand the capacity of its only deep-water harbor in Nuuk. Three airports in the BBDS part of Greenland can accommodate jets. The costs of air and boat travel in Greenland are generally high. As a result, these costs constitute a negative driver for, in particular, the ability of private persons to physically connect with each other and the rest of the world. Tourism (fully addressed in Chapter 8) is also known to be sensitive to the cost of transport (Andrew, 2014). The development of extractive industries in the region could also improve connections to the rest of the world. The Baffinland mining company, for example, has built a jet airstrip to support the Mary River mine. However, these types of facilities are often not situated close to communities, so local benefits are limited.

Acknowledgments We thank Torben Andersen for a written contribution to the Greenland economy section and Per Langgård for helpful dialogue in regard to the Greenlandic language section. We are also grateful to Birger Poppel and Jack Hicks for a friendly review of an earlier version of the full chapter. Furthermore, we wish to thank Anders Øgaard and Andreas Møller Jørgensen for providing relevant information for the section on Internet distribution and long-distance teaching in Greenland.

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