Ministry of Planning and International Co-operation
Puntland’s Consumer Price Index & Exchange Rate Regime
Updated Report
Garoowe, Puntland State of Somalia
January, 2013
Puntland’s Consumer Price Index & Exchange Rate Regime
Executive Summary CPI is obtained by comparing through time, the cost of a fixed basket of commodities purchased by consumers. Since the basket contains commodities of unchanging or equivalent quantity and quality, the index reflects only pure price movements. Price movements of the goods and services represented in the CPI are weighted according to the relative importance of commodities in the total expenditures of consumers. Table 1 and Figure 1 show a rapid increase in the general of prices in Puntland except for the year 2010. As can be seen in Table 1 there are three-digit figures for all quarters of 2008 in Garoowe and two for the whole of Puntland. These figures show a decline, signalling a deflationary period. This trend continues for the second quarter of 2009 though for the first quarter of 2009 prices show a slight increase. The third and the fourth quarter of 2010 show once again an increase/decrease in the general price level with respect to 2005 (140.43% & 79.96%) and with respect to the second/third quarter of 2010 (44.74% & -60.47%), respectively. In the first quarter of 2011 the rate of inflation has reached 114.87% with respect to the base year 2005 which shows an increase of 34.91% with respect to the last quarter of 2010. Prices have increased in quarter three due mainly to an increase in prices in Bossaso (Table 1). Both Bossaso and Garowe have shown a decrease in prices in the fourth quarter of 2012. Therefore, the inflation rate of Puntland has fallen to average of 61.83% in 2012 with respect to the base year 2005. For the first time in the history of Puntland, and indeed in Somalia in general, there is a declining trend in the market exchange rates and since August 2011 it is below the level (around SoSh20.99 in December 2012 per US$) of the official exchange rate of SoSh30,000 per US$ (See Table 2 & Figure 2). This might raise a negative implication to the activities of the vibrant business community in Puntland as well as to consumers purchasing power as most of are receivers of remittances from their relative from abroad.
Puntland’s Consumer Price Index & Exchange Rate Regime Table of Contents
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................2 I. CPI in Puntland ...........................................................................................................................................4 I.1 Limitations in Puntland’s CPI computations.............................................................................................5 II. Inflation in Puntland...................................................................................................................................5 Figure 1: Inflation Rates ................................................................................................................................6 III. Foreign Exchange Rates...........................................................................................................................7 Figure 2: Foreign Exchange Rates Fluctuations (SoSh/USD)........................................................................7 IV. About this report.......................................................................................................................................7 V. Annexes......................................................................................................................................................8 V.1 Table 1: Inflation in Puntland (Base Year 2005) in %.............................................................................8 V.2 Table 2: Foreign Exchange Rates............................................................................................................9 V.3 Garoowe CPI..........................................................................................................................................10 V.4 Bossaso Consumer Price Index..............................................................................................................13 V.5 Galkacayo Commodity Prices................................................................................................................14 V.6 Consumer Price Index............................................................................................................................17 V.6.1 The Nature of the Data used for Weighting........................................................................................19
I. CPI in Puntland The Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Planning and International Co-operation publishes the CPI (for a definition of CPI see Annex V.6) on a monthly basis. For the first week of every month, data is collected from the different markets in three cities in Puntland (Garoowe, the capital of Puntland, Bossaso the main financial city, and Galkacayo the second main commercial city). Aggregations are then obtained by compiling data on quarterly and on annual basis. CPI is obtained by comparing through time, the cost of a fixed basket of commodities purchased by consumers. Since the basket contains commodities of unchanging or equivalent quantity and quality, the index reflects only pure price movements. Price movements of the goods and services represented in the CPI are weighted according to the relative importance of commodities in the total expenditures of consumers. Samples in the price survey are obtained from a judgmental selection of geographical areas, representative commodities, and types and locations of retail outlets. Puntland has started approximately with a basket of 127 commodities specified to represent the price movement in 20 basic commodity classes. Sample commodities are chosen on the basis of representative-ness and expected continuous availability. The price quotes used in the construction of the CPI are collected by personal visits to selected retail outlets in the main urban areas of Bossaso, Galkacayo, and Garoowe. For details in the derivation of CPI contact the above Statistics Dept. Generally, factors affecting the quality of the CPI include: - the size and composition of the price samples of commodities and outlets – the accuracy of the expenditure estimates used to assign weights – the frequency and speed of updating of the contents and weights of the CPI basket – the effectiveness of error detection and correction, and imputation methods for missing data – the application of appropriate methods of adjusting for quality change of commodities in the CPI sample. The CPI is believed to be sufficiently accurate for most practical purposes. In terms of general accuracy it is better at the Puntland level for any product index in the CPI compared to the same index at the city level. The method used to construct CPIs in Puntland is the Laspeyres index. The Laspeyres index uses a typical basket purchased in the earlier of two periods compared. The Laspeyres index is computed as:
where P is the change in price level, t0 is the base period (usually the first year), and tn the period for which the index is computed, and represents the prevailing price of c in period t represents the quantity of c sold in period t If, across two periods t0 and tn, the same quantities of each good or service were sold, but under different prices, then
I.1 Limitations in Puntland’s CPI computations The statistical sources required for regional and outlet-type breakdowns are usually weaker. Only a largesample Household Expenditure survey can provide a regional breakdown. Regional population data are sometimes used for this purpose, but need adjustment to allow for regional differences in living standards and consumption patterns. Puntland is still waiting to implement a Household Expenditure survey as proposed on a number of occasions followed by frequent disruptions since 2002. It would have been easier to categorize the statistical relevance and the choice of representative goods and services basket. These are only part of the general CPI weaknesses: (i) Average spending pattern; (ii) Calculation errors; (iii) Expenditure survey absence; (iv) Delay in updating basket. II. Inflation in Puntland The percent change in the CPI is a measure of inflation. It is calculated by the formula Quantity*price in specific year CPI = -------------------------------------------------- * 100 Quantity*price in base year/period The rate of inflation is calculated by the formula
Inflation Rate =
CPI new – CPI old -----------------------------------*100 CPI old
Inflation is computed quarterly & annually using the CPI at city levels and at Puntland level as shown in Table 1 below: Adjustments are needed to compute the proper inflation rate. This will require the elimination of some items in the list which might over-estimate or underestimate the rate of inflation in Puntland. For the above years the price of timber was removed from the list as a major item that considerably amplifies the general price level. Inflation rate for Puntland was calculated by averaging the CPI data for only two cities (Garoowe and Bossaso). Galkacayo could not be included for Puntland CPI as the collection of data started late in 2008 by the MoPIC’s Dept. of Statistics team with the assistance of UNDP-Somalia.
Figure 1: Inflation Rates
Figure 1 shows a rapid increase in the general of prices in Puntland except for the year 2010. As can be seen in Table 1 there are three-digit figures for all quarters of 2008 in Garoowe and two for the whole of Puntland. These figures show a decline, signalling a deflationary period. This trend continues for the second quarter of 2009 though for the first quarter of 2009 prices show a slight increase. The third and the fourth quarter of 2010 show once again an increase/decrease in the general price level with respect to 2005 (140.43% & 79.96%) and with respect to the second/third quarter of 2010 (44.74% & -60.47%), respectively. In the first quarter of 2011 the rate of inflation has reached 114.87% with respect to the base year 2005 which shows an increase of 34.91% with respect to the last quarter of 2010. Prices have increased in quarter three due mainly to an increase in prices in Bossaso (Table 1). Both Bossaso and Garowe have shown a decrease in prices in the fourth quarter of 2012. Therefore, the inflation rate of Puntland has fallen to average of 61.83% in 2012 with respect to the base year 2005. Inflation in Puntland has two major sources: domestic and International: (i)
The domestic source is being contained to some extent by some positive steps taken by the Puntland Government in 2008, such as closing all the money printing establishments within Puntland as well as controlling for incoming banknotes from elsewhere. The Government has also set clear cut pro-poor policies such as reducing taxes by 20% to all imported necessity goods (mainly food items in 2008) and reduced by US$2 the commission fee levied at the quarantine station gate per animal for exports in 2010 as well as lifting all local taxation for livestock transportation for exports.
(ii)
On the international front, after the experience of summer 2008, there is a real concern about the high volatility of energy prices, the new strategy for bio-fuels, and the declaration that a good number of world food country exporters are on the brink of withdrawing and restricting their exports and hence their export policies will have direct effects to local consumers everywhere. Now, we are expecting the full impact of the global financial crisis.
As in most countries of the world, one of the main objectives for Puntland is to keep the inflation rate as low as possible. III. Foreign Exchange Rates A liberal financial system operates in Puntland, with a dual exchange rate subsystem that uses market rates for private transactions but a usually overvalued rate for government transactions.The widely used foreign exchange rate in Puntland is the So.Sh./US$ as shown below: Figure 2: Foreign Exchange Rates Fluctuations (SoSh/USD)
IV. About this report This report is the result of a joint contribution of: Hussein Bulaale Director, Statistics Dept. MoPIC
[email protected] Said Sayte CPI Specialist, MoPIC
[email protected] Anab Ali Shire Data Producer, Statistics Dept. MoPIC,
[email protected] Muse Duale UNDP-Garowe
[email protected] Osman Yassin Former Consultant (statistician)
[email protected] Mohamed Samantar Chief Editor
[email protected] Special thanks are extended to the three reviewers of an earlier version of this report: Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Former Professor at Niagara University, USA
[email protected] Richard Ng’etich UNDP-Somalia, Kenya
[email protected] Abdikarim Farah Senior Economist, IMF,
[email protected]
V. Annexes V.1 Table 1: Inflation in Puntland (Base Year 2005) in % Year Garoowe Bossaso Puntland 2006 43.32 16.11 29.72 2007 86.65 15.55 51.10 2008(Jan-Mar) 102.01 5.83 53.92 2008 (Apr-Jun) 166.02 23.18 94.60 2008 (Jul-Sept) 204.49 72.12 138.31 2008 (Oct-Dec) 211.36 40.99 126.18 2008 170.97 36.53 103.25 2009 (Jan-Mar) 212.91 53.75 133.33 2009 (Apr-Jun) 176.75 49.96 113.36 2009 Jul-Sept) 171.00 81.07 126.04 2009 (Oct-Dec 120.59 06.99 63.79 2009 170.16 50.44 110.30 2010 (Jan-Mar) 160.22 43.52 101.87 2010 (Apr-Jun) 150.47 40.97 95.69 2010 (Jul-Sept) 193.48 87.37 140.43 2010 Oct-Dec) 137.19 22.80 79.96 2010 160.34 48.67 104.49 2011 (Jan-Mar) 181.03 48.71 114.87 2011 (Apr-Jun) 166.73 19.69 93.21 2011 (Jul-Sep) 163.44 70.06 116.75 2011 (Oct-Dec) 190.90 58.03 124.47 2011 175.525 49.1225 112.325 2012 (Jan-Mar) 126.57 46.20 86.385 2012 (Apr-Jun) 147.66 53.91 100.785 2012 (Jul-Sept) 139.88 84.98 112.43 2012 (Oct-Dec) 133.61 54.23 93.92 2012 111.93 59.83 61.83 Source: Statistics Department, MoPIC
V.2Table 2:
Foreign Exchange Rates
Table 2 - Average Monthly Exchange Rate* for So.Sh per USD 2001-2012 (hundred thousands) 200 2 19.9
200 3 20.4
200 4 17.9
200 5 14.9
200 6 15.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
January
200 1 13.0
14.90
13.9
19.5
20.2
17.2
15.3
15.0
15.40
March
14.5
21.0
20.2
17.3
15.3
14.0
16.10
April
17.2
21.7
20.2
17.8
15.2
14.0
16.10
May
17.2
21.7
20.2
17.6
15.3
14.0
17.50
June
18.0
22.0
20.2
17.7
15.1
14.0
19.00
July
16.7
21.6
20.2
17.0
14.9
14.0
19.20
August
18.4
21.6
20.1
14.4
15.3
15.0
19.60
September 19.1
20.6
20.0
14.0
15.6
15.0
20.30
October
22.0
18.9
19.4
14.0
15.3
15.0
21.30
November 23.3
18.5
19.3
14.2
15.2
15.0
21.30
December
20.0
19.0
14.3
15.0
15.0
21.3 0
29.0 0 29.0 0 29.5 0 31.1 5 32.2 5 32.0 0 32.7 0 32.5 1 31.7 2 31.8 7 30.5 7 31.1 8
31.5 0 31.7 5 32.1 5 31.8 9 32.5 0 32.5 0 32.5 0 32.5 0 31.4 5 30.5 0 31.1 4 32.0 0
31.2 5 32.1 5 31.5 0 30.5 0 31.5 0 31.5 0 32.0 0 31.3 0 31.0 0 30.8 9 29.1 3 29.0 5
25.25
February
25.7 0 25.7 0 26.5 0 29.1 0 34.0 0 38.6 0 38.1 0 35.9 0 34.6 0 34.0 0 31.0 0 31.0 0
Source:
19.8
24.15 24.50 24.50 24.50 23.50 21.79 21.18 21.50 21.32 21.93 20.99
Statistics Department, MoPIC
* This reflects only the foreign market exchange rates. Since August 2011 the official exchange rate is fixed at So.Sh 30,000 per US$. After discussions with the Puntland authorities traders are allowed to pay 60% of their duties in US$ and the remaining 40% in SoSh at the official rate of exchange.
V.3 Garoowe CPI Sectors
2005
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 F30 B10 B11 B12 C13 C14 C14a C15 C16 C16a D17
Maize Local Maize Import Sorghum Rice Local Rice Import Wheat Floor Wheat Bread Spaghetti Sugar Camel Meat Beef Meat Goat Meat Cow milk Camel milk Goat milk Milk powder Eggs Eggs(import) Sesame oil
5,333.33 4,000.00 6,000.00 0.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 5,000.00 500.00 11,000.00 8,666.67 50,000.00 0.00 60,000.00 0.00 9,000.00 7,333.33 74,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 30,000.00
D18
Seeds (white) oil
20,000.00
D19 H35 H36 H37 G31 G33 G34 G32
Ghee Soft drinks Ice Juice Tea Cardamom Coffee powder Salt
80,000.00 9,000.00 3,000.00 8,000.00 30,000.00 145,000.00 12,000.00 4,000.00 599,333.33
CPI Fruits and vegetables E20 E21 E22
Onions Tomatoes Bananas
8,000.00 5,000.00 10,000.00
2011
2012(Q4)
16,000.00 14,333.33 16,000.00 0.00 24,166.67 20,000.00 34,000.00 2,000.00 30,333.33 27,666.67 143,333.33 0.00 163,333.33 0.00 29,333.33 29,333.33 413,666.67 8,000.00 7,000.00 135,000.00
2009
16,000.00 16,000.00 16,000.00 0.00 23,333.33 22,666.67 32,000.00 2,000.00 30,000.00 34,333.33 189,166.67 0.00 173,333.33 0.00 45,000.00 41,666.67 450,000.00 6,333.33 5,333.33 76,500.00
2010
22,666.67 24,000.00 25,000.00 0.00 25,000.00 23,333.33 34,333.33 2,000.00 30,000.00 30,000.00 194,166.67 185,833.33 188,333.33 28,000.00 26,666.67 26,666.67 420,000.00 6,000.00 5,333.33 96,666.67
19,333.33 19,666.67 23,000.00 0.00 17,666.67 19,166.67 39,000.00 2,000.00 20,666.67 21,666.67 185,000.00 188,333.33 180,000.00 30,000.00 28,333.33 28,000.00 341,666.67 5,833.33 5,000.00 91,666.67
30,000.00 353,333.33 18,000.00 12,000.00 20,000.00 68,000.00 287,916.67 59,166.67 8,000.00 1,969,916.67
45,000.00 300,000.00 18,000.00 10,000.00 18,000.00 76,666.67 783,333.33 75,000.00 8,000.00 2,513,666.67
51,666.67 460,000.00 17,666.67 12,666.67 17,666.67 68,333.33 750,000.00 75,000.00 9,333.33 2,856,333.33
42,333.33 423,333.33 15,333.33 14,000.00 19,000.00 51,666.67 620,000.00 63,333.33 9,333.33 2,524,333.33
328.68
419.41
476.59
421.19
19,666.67 30,833.33 3,000.00
30,000.00 28,333.33 3,000.00
20,000.00 31,666.67 3,333.33
26,666.67 31,083.33 2,750.00
E23 E23a E24 E25 E26 E27 E28 E29
Lemon Mango Grapefruits (Medium) Papaya Beans Potatoes Green pepper Canned tomatoes
CPI Clothes and Shoes I39 Langre I40 Ready made shirt I41 Ready made trousers I42
Sandals (local)
I43
Sandals (import)
I44
Shoes (import)
J45 J46 J47 J48 J49
Shawl Sari Frock Headwear Sandals (local)
J50
Sandals (import)
J51
Shoes (import)
K52 K53 K54
Shirt Frock Ready made trousers
K55 K56
Sandals (local) Sandals (import)
10,000.00 15,000.00 3,000.00 20,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 2,000.00 101,000.00
145,000.00 135,000.00
24,166.67 10,000.00
10,000.00 10,000.00
9,333.33 9,833.33
9,166.67 10,166.67
8,333.33 35,333.33 35,333.33 19,750.00 49,000.00 6,000.00 241,416.67
35,000.00 45,000.00 16,666.67 21,000.00 43,333.33 6,000.00 248,333.33
45,000.00 58,333.33 22,666.67 25,000.00 49,666.67 6,000.00 280,833.33
45,000.00 53,333.33 19,333.33 18,000.00 40,500.00 5,000.00 261,000.00
239.03
245.87
278.05
258.42
564,583.33
446,666.67
616,666.67
500,000.00
270,416.67
243,333.33
276,666.67
208,333.33
302,500.00
313,333.33
302,333.33
236,666.67
0.00
0.00
121,666.67
94,166.67
271,250.00
270,000.00
290,000.00
276,666.67
401,666.67 305,833.33 0.00 305,833.33 50,833.33
289,166.67 321,666.67 246,666.67 275,000.00 48,333.33
320,000.00 148,333.33 653,333.33 323,333.33 48,333.33
296,666.67 138,333.33 586,666.67 433,333.33 42,500.00
0.00
0.00
85,000.00
83,333.33
282,083.33
255,000.00
310,000.00
260,000.00
313,333.33 222,500.00 245,000.00
323,333.33 194,166.67 283,333.33
283,333.33 168,333.33 285,000.00
296,666.67 203,333.33 258,333.33
191,666.67
221,666.67
253,333.33
216,666.67
0.00
0.00
73,333.33
0.00
205,416.67
248,333.33
230,000.00
203,333.33
120,000.00
60,000.00 130,000.00 180,000.00 147,500.00 0.00 140,000.00 20,000.00 64,000.00 120,000.00 145,000.00 72,500.00 75,000.00 95,000.00
0.00 76,250.00
K57
Shoes (import)
40,000.00
279,583.33 4,212,500.00
290,000.00 4,270,000.00
266,666.67 5,055,666.67
247,500.00 4,582,500.00
238.63
241.89
286.40
259.59
30,666.67 34,666.67 300,000.00 25,250.00 23,416.67
39,333.33 43,333.33 386,666.67 29,666.67 30,000.00
32,000.00 38,333.33 450,000.00 38,333.33 33,333.33
21,333.33 20,000.00 423,333.33 21,666.67 20,333.33
455,000.00 869,000.00
600,000.00 1,129,000.00
650,000.00 1,242,000.00
730,000.00 1,236,666.67
368.22
478.39
526.27
524.01
800,000.00
1,991,666.67
1,856,666.67
600,000.00
300,000.00 0.00 1,100,000.00
743,333.33 0.00 2,735,000.00
800,000.00 0.00 2,656,666.67
6,000,000.00 0.00 6,600,000.00
1,573,333.33 460,000.00 0.00 2,033,333.33
248.64
241.52
600
184.85
1,500.00 11,333.33 2,083.33 2,000.00 2,333.33
1,333.33 13,333.33 833.33 1,000.00 1,333.33
1,666.67 13,333.33 2,000.00 1,000.00 3,000.00
1,666.67 15,166.67 1,833.33 5,833.33 3,000.00
52,500.00 5,000.00
36,666.67 6,333.33
40,000.00 0.00
45,000.00 0.00
48,333.33 125,083.33
38,333.33 99,166.67
51,666.67 112,666.67
41,666.67 114,166.67
245.26
194.44
220.92
223.86
1,765,250.00
CPI Water, Power, Fuel and Transportation
M60 M61 M62 M63 M64 N65a
Water Kerosene Charcoal Diesel Petrol Garowe-Bosaso
20,000.00 10,000.00 85,000.00 10,000.00 11,000.00 100,000.00 236,000.00
CPI Furniture O81
Bed (local made)
O82 O83
Easy Chair Sofa (local)
CPI Medicine Q89 Q90 Q91 Q92 Q94 Q95 Q96 Q97
Antibiotics Antibiotics Analgesics Antigastritic Antimalaria Anticough (syrup) AntiTB Multivitaminc (syrup)
2,000.00 7,000.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 15,000.00 2,500.00 20,000.00 51,000.00
CPI
Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 1 CPI Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 2 CPI Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 3 CPI Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 4 CPI
597,833.33 104,666.67 1,778,333.33
2,140,583.33 230,333.33 4,109,666.67
1,976,333.33 224,500.00 4,116,250.00
3,157,833.33 281,166.67 4,261,666.67
2,756,000.00 283,666.67 4,417,000.00
959,000.00 733,333.33 36,500.00 4,209,666.67
3,134,333.33 3,430,000.00 127,500.00 13,172,416.67 312.91 2,248,000.00 254,083.33 4,145,000.00
1,838,833.33 2,673,333.33 125,166.67 10,954,416.67 260.22 1,990,416.67 246,500.00 4,074,583.33
1,139,666.67 2,885,666.67 104,333.33 11,830,333.33 281.03 2,761,083.33 310,666.67 4,428,750.00
1,262,000.00 2,126,666.67 94,833.33 10,940,166.67 #REF! 2,641,500.00 311,833.33 4,897,500.00
2,427,666.67 3,155,833.33 119,458.33 12,350,041.67 276.75 2,200,250.00 258,250.00 4,377,333.33
1,864,666.67 2,856,666.67 126,583.33 11,159,416.67 250.07 2,436,333.33 274,666.67 4,571,000.00
1,199,833.33 3,096,666.67 105,583.33 11,902,583.33 266.73 3,237,033.33 279,250.00 4,395,500.00
1,250,583.33 1,833,983.33 116,333.33 11,051,733.33 247.66 2,641,500.00 311,833.33 4,897,500.00
2,481,000.00 3,043,333.33 125,583.33 12,485,750.00 271.00 1,969,916.67 241,416.67 4,212,500.00
3,196,166.67 2,951,666.67 91,333.33 13,521,166.67 293.48 2,513,666.67 248,333.33 4,270,000.00
1,196,000.00 2,930,000.00 99,666.67 12,137,450.00 263.44 2,856,333.33 280,833.33 5,055,666.67
1,250,583.33 1,833,983.33 116,333.33 11,051,733.33 239.88
869,000.00 2,735,000.00 125,083.33 10,152,916.67 220.59
1,129,000.00 2,656,666.67 99,166.67 10,916,833.33 237.19
1,242,000.00 6,600,000.00 112,666.67 16,147,500.00 350.84
586,483.33 103,145.83 1,756,500.00 983,500.00 983,333.33 49,500.00 4,462,462.50 600,000.00 101,000.00 1,768,583.33 984,166.67 1,100,000.00 53,500.00 4,607,250.00 599,333.33 101,000.00 1,765,250.00 986,000.00 1,100,000.00 51,000.00 4,602,583.33
V.4 Bossaso Consumer Price Index 2005 Food and Drinks Including
586,000.00
2009 2,165,833.33
Year 2010 1,913,916.67
2011 2,625,625.00
2012 (Q4) 2,757,541.67
Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine
95,583.33 2,217,666.67
300,166.67 2,474,000.00
248,416.67 2,901,333.33
223,083.33 3,590,000.00
292,333.33 3,968,333.33
968,666.67 3,206,666.67 68,400.00
3,202,416.67 2,715,000.00 125,166.67
2,780,000.00 2,276,666.67 131,291.67
1,212,666.67 2,857,000.00 114,000.00
1,244,666.67 2,066,666.67 113,333.33
Total Sectors Quarter 1 CPI Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine
7,142,983.33 10,982,583.33 10,251,625.00 10,622,375.00 10,442,875.00 153.75
143.52
148.71
146.20
529,333.33 97,466.67 2,032,000.00
2,259,333.33 337,500.00 2,591,166.67
1,987,291.67 253,541.67 3,025,666.67
2,086,000.00 258,000.00 2,985,666.67
2,641,750.00 319,666.67 4,858,333.00
976,333.33 3,733,333.33 63,650.00
3,232,333.33 2,590,000.00 135,166.67
2,808,916.67 2,270,000.00 127,500.00
1,092,666.67 2,353,333.33 120,000.00
1,237,166.67 2,266,666.67 115,416.67
Total Sectors Quarter 2 CPI Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine
7,432,116.67 11,145,500.00 10,472,916.67
11,438,999.67 153.91
Total Sectors Quarter 3 CPI Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine
6,139,300.00 11,116,500.00 11,503,166.67 10,440,755.00 11,356,405.56
Total Sectors Quarter 4 CPI
149.96
140.91
8,895,666.67 119.69
431,166.67 89,666.67 1,303,333.33
2,279,750.00 346666.67 2,746,916.67
2,279,750.00 346,666.67 2,746,916.67
2,732,333.33 303,166.67 3,757,588.33
2,537,183.33 319,555.56 4,769,166.67
852,833.33 3,400,000.00 62,300.00
3,241,333.33 2,703,333.33 145,166.67
3,281,333.33 2,703,333.33 145,166.67
1,169,666.67 2,373,333.33 104,666.67
1,472,666.67 2,143,333.33 114,500.00
181.07
187.37
170.06
184.98
524,000.00 96,000.00 1,950,000.00
1,965,416.67 261,250.00 2,884,583.33
2,377,500.00 265,333.33 3,041,000.00
2,812,833.33 298,666.67 4,490,666.67
2,468,000.00 281,833.33 4,686,000.00
953,500.00 4,300,000.00 63,650.00
889,583.33 2,296,666.67 140,916.67
1,194,000.00 2,680,000.00 127,333.33
1,211,333.33 3,545,000.00 105,500.00
1,248,833.33 2,090,000.00 97,833.33
7,887,150.00
8,438,416.67 106.99
9,685,166.67 122.80
12,464,000.00 158.03
10,872,500.00 137.85
V.5 Galkacayo Commodity Prices 2008 Maize Local
0.00
2009 21,833.33
2010 22,333.33
2011
2012 (Q4) 0.00
0.00
Maize Import Sorghum Rice Local Rice Import Wheat Floor Wheat Bread Spaghetti Sugar Camel Meat Beef Meat Goat Meat Cow milk Camel milk Goat milk Milk powder Eggs Eggs(import) Sesame oil Seeds (white) oil Ghee Soft drinks Ice Juice Tea Cardamom Coffee powder Salt Onions Tomatoes Bananas Lemon Mango Grapefruits (Medium) Papaya Beans Potatoes Green pepper Canned tomatoes
Langre Ready made shirt Ready made trousers Sandals (local) Sandals
33,333.33 26,666.67 0.00 45,000.00 43,333.33 40,000.00 2,000.00 59,000.00 22,666.67 173,333.33 120,000.00 180,000.00 36,666.67 32,500.00 35,833.33 610,000.00 4,666.67 6,000.00 136,666.67 65,000.00 290,000.00 18,000.00 10,000.00 17,000.00 86,666.67 328,333.33 49,333.33 4,000.00 2,476,000.00 33,833.33 36,666.67 3,000.00 15,000.00 15,000.00
20,000.00 26,000.00 0.00 24,000.00 20,000.00 33,333.33 2,000.00 34,333.33 25,000.00 171,333.33 0.00 165,833.33 0.00 29,833.33 32,666.67 423,333.33 8,000.00 7,000.00 135,000.00 33,666.67 366,666.67 16,000.00 14,000.00 17,000.00 85,000.00 343,333.33 42,333.33 4,000.00 2,101,500.00 27,083.33 36,833.33 2,666.67 12,000.00 12,083.33
16,500.00 21,000.00 0.00 27,333.33 20,666.67 28,000.00 2,000.00 28,000.00 30,000.00 182,333.33 0.00 183,333.33 0.00 41,666.67 36,666.67 390,000.00 8,000.00 7,000.00 116,666.67 43,333.33 361,666.67 18,000.00 12,000.00 18,000.00 68,333.33 693,333.33 46,666.67 6,000.00 2,428,833.33 28,333.33 38,333.33 2,000.00 9,333.33 9,333.33
21,000.00 22,666.67 0.00 24,000.00 25,000.00 32,166.67 2,000.00 30,666.67 30,000.00 187,500.00 188,333.33 190,000.00 22,333.33 22,500.00 22,333.33 408,333.33 6,666.67 5,666.67 88,333.33 58,333.33 390,000.00 16,833.33 12,000.00 18,000.00 71,666.67 766,666.67 65,000.00 9,333.33 2,737,333.33 27,000.00 31,666.67 3,333.33 8,833.33 9,666.67
19,250.00 18,666.67 0.00 21,041.67 20,750.00 38,166.67 2,000.00 23,750.00 23,000.00 191,666.67 183,333.33 184,166.67 24,250.00 23,500.00 22,750.00 405,833.33 6,000.00 5,000.00 81,000.00 37,000.00 384,166.67 15,666.67 12,666.67 19,333.33 55,000.00 656,666.67 53,666.67 7,666.67 2,535,958.33 28,333.33 28,333.33 2,833.33 8,166.67 9,666.67
10,666.67 41,250.00 46,000.00 26,250.00 40,000.00 6,000.00 273,666.67 446,250.00
13,333.33 38,000.00 46,666.67 24,333.33 48,666.67 6,000.00 267,666.67 450,833.33
16,666.67 41,666.67 20,333.33 20,000.00 40,000.00 6,000.00 232,000.00 583,333.33
39,666.67 46,000.00 30,666.67 26,666.67 49,666.67 5,666.67 278,833.33 591,666.67
41,000.00 46,500.00 19,333.33 19,000.00 48,333.33 4,666.67 256,166.67 491,666.67
304,166.67
290,000.00
250,000.00
196,666.67
244,333.33
343,750.00 102,000.00 387,500.00
323,333.33 135,000.00 363,333.33
300,000.00 140,000.00 363,333.33
286,666.67 165,000.00 285,000.00
275,833.33 110,000.00 233,333.33
(import) Shoes (import) Shawl Sari Frock Headwear Sandals (local) Sandals (import) Shoes (import) Shirt Frock Ready made trousers Sandals (local) Sandals (import) Shoes (import)
340,000.00 178,333.33 201,666.67 337,500.00 71,666.67 173,333.33
406,666.67 466,666.67 603,333.33 296,666.67 42,333.33 133,333.33
353,333.33 700,000.00 300,000.00 333,333.33 46,666.67 313,333.33
321,666.67 146,666.67 586,666.67 320,000.00 44,333.33 136,666.67
261,666.67 133,333.33 600,000.00 351,666.67 39,166.67 90,166.67
353,333.33 211,666.67 140,000.00 208,333.33
350,000.00 423,333.33 141,666.67 255,000.00
383,333.33 376,666.67 171,666.67 303,333.33
273,333.33 300,000.00 183,333.33 221,666.67
233,333.33 330,000.00 218,333.33 250,000.00
185,000.00 0.00
265,833.33 0.00
293,333.33 0.00
223,333.33 100,000.00
228,333.33 0.00
230,000.00 260,000.00 4,474,500.00
269,333.33 308,333.33 5,525,000.00
266,666.67 313,333.33 5,791,666.67
265,000.00 287,500.00 4,935,166.67
241,666.67 251,666.67 4,584,500.00
55,000.00 50,000.00 300,000.00 37,666.67 29,333.33 472,000.00
43,333.33 47,666.67 360,000.00 24,666.67 23,166.67 498,833.33
30,333.33 40,000.00 383,333.33 26,000.00 23,666.67 503,333.33
32,333.33 40,000.00 438,333.33 36,666.67 32,666.67 580,000.00
21,833.33 21,666.67 421,666.67 22,500.00 21,500.00 509,166.67
3,313,333.33 1,520,000.00 3,000,000.00 7,833,333.33 12,000.00 2,500.00 3,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00
1,522,916.67 1,056,000.00 3,046,666.67 5,625,583.33 12,333.33 2,166.67 2,666.67 2,000.00 1,500.00
1,660,000.00 1,033,333.33 3,000,000.00 5,693,333.33 12,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 1,500.00
1,800,000.00 683,333.33 2,093,333.33 4,576,666.67 13,500.00 1,833.33 2,166.67 1,500.00 2,833.33
1,620,000.00 613,333.33 1,770,000.00 4,003,333.33 14,166.67 1,416.67 1,333.33 2,166.67 3,000.00
56,333.33 6,500.00
58,333.33 5,000.00
56,666.67 4,500.00
41,666.67 0.00
42,500.00 0.00
59,333.33 144,666.67 Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables
53,333.33 137,333.33
50,000.00 130,666.67 1,555,833.33 139,000.00
Water Kerosene Charcoal Diesel Petrol Bed (local made) Easy Chair Sofa (local) Antibiotics Antibiotics Analgesics Antigastritic Antimalaria Anticough (syrup) AntiTB Multivitaminc (syrup)
48,666.67 112,166.67 2,278,333.33 275,333.33
46,666.67 111,250.00 1,981,833.33 235,000.00
2,523,666.67 241,333.33
2,715,472.22 280,333.33
Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 1 Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 2 Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 3 Sectors Food and Drinks Including Sugar Fruits and Vegetables Clothes and Shoes for all Water, Fuel, Power & Transportation Furniture Medicine Total Sectors Quarter 4
2,929,000.00 1,989,333.33 3,800,000.00 94,083.33 1,814,500.00 214,166.67 3,158,750.00 2,639,500.00 4,762,500.00 112,500.00 12,701,916.67 2,234,416.67 260,916.67 3,583,750.00 3,251,666.67 5,050,000.00 131,000.00 14,511,750.00
5,493,333.33 3,147,000.00 5,433,333.33 103,166.67 16,730,500.00 2,434,166.67 309,000.00 5,853,500.00 3,218,000.00 5,511,666.67 123,166.67 17,449,500.00 2,424,833.33 2,424,833.33 4,849,666.67 3,214,000.00 5,760,000.00 18,673,333.33 37,346,666.67
5,407,250.00 3,060,083.33 5,687,333.33 133,666.67 16,505,166.67 1,991,375.00 231,083.33 5,415,750.00 3,061,166.67 5,698,750.00 134,833.33 16,532,958.33 2,203,333.33 240,500.00 5,594,166.67 3,091,250.00 5,620,000.00 126,083.33 16,875,333.33
5,421,083.33 503,666.67 5,666,666.67 136,666.67 14,493,083.33 2,503,250.00 269,333.33 4,935,000.00 539,333.33 4,952,916.67 116,666.67 13,316,500.00 2,770,750.00 292,083.33 5,233,333.33 585,333.33 5,253,333.33 111,333.33 14,246,166.67
2,476,000.00 273,666.67 4,474,500.00 3,267,000.00 7,833,333.33 144,666.67 18,469,166.67
2,101,500.00 267,666.67 5,525,000.00 498,833.33 5,625,583.33 137,333.33 14,155,916.67
2,428,833.33 232,000.00 5,791,666.67 503,333.33 5,693,333.33 130,666.67 14,779,833.33
2,737,333.33 278,833.33 4,935,166.67 580,000.00 4,576,666.67 112,166.67 13,220,166.67
10,507,250.00
V.6Consumer Price Index A consumer price index (CPI) is an index number measuring the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It is one of several price indices calculated by national statistical
4,794,166.67 559,333.33 3,738,333.33 105,000.00 12,192,638.89 2,627,383.33 311,333.33 4,546,666.67 534,666.67 4,178,333.33 114,166.67 12,312,550.00 3080833.33 276666.67 4595166.67 506666.67 4121666.67 112500.00 12693500.00
agencies. The percent change in the CPI is a measure of inflation. The CPI can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effects of inflation) wages, salaries, pensions, or regulated or contracted prices. The CPI is, along with the population census and the National Income and Product Accounts, one of the most closely watched national economic statistics. Two basic types of data are needed to construct the CPI: price data and weighting data. The price data are collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times. The weighting data are estimates of the shares of the different types of expenditure as fractions of the total expenditure covered by the index. These weights are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households. Although some of the sampling is done using a sampling frame and probabilistic sampling methods, much is done in a commonsense way (purposive sampling) that does not permit estimation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the sampling variance is normally ignored, since a single estimate is required in most of the purposes for which the index is used. The index is usually computed monthly, or quarterly in some countries, as a weighted average of subindices for different components of consumer expenditure, such as food, housing, clothing, each of which is in turn a weighted average of sub-sub-indices. At the most detailed level, the elementary aggregate level, detailed weighting information is unavailable, so elementary aggregate indices are computed using an un-weighted arithmetic or geometric mean of the prices of the sampled product offers. It takes time to assemble and process the information used for weighting which, in addition to household expenditure surveys, may include trade and tax data. The index reference period, usually called the base year, often differs both from the weight-reference period and the price reference period. This is just a matter of rescaling the whole time-series to make the value for the index reference-period equal to 100. Annually revised weights are a desirable but expensive feature of an index, for the older the weights the greater is the divergence between the current expenditure pattern and that of the weight reference-period. For some of these lower level indexes detailed weights within them may be available, allowing computations where the individual price observations can all be weighted. This may be the case, for example, where all selling is in the hands of a single national organisation which makes its data available to the index compilers. For lower level indexes, however, the weight will consist of the sum of the weights of a number of elementary aggregate indexes, each weight corresponding to its fraction of the total annual expenditure covered by the index. An ‘elementary aggregate’ is a lowest-level component of expenditure, one which has a weight but within which, weights of its sub-components are usually lacking Thus, for example: Weighted averages of elementary aggregate indexes (e.g. for men’s shirts, raincoats, women’s dresses etc.) make up low level indexes (e.g. Outer garments), Weighted averages of these in turn provide sub-indices at a higher, more aggregated level,(e.g. Clothing) and Weighted averages of the latter provide yet more aggregated sub-indices (e.g. Clothing and Footwear). Most elementary aggregate indexes are necessarily ‘un-weighted’ averages for the sample of products within the sampled outlets. However in cases where it is possible to select the sample of outlets from which prices are collected so as to reflect the shares of sales to consumers of the different outlet types
covered, self-weighted elementary aggregate indexes may be computed. Similarly, if the market shares of the different types of product represented by product types are known, even only approximately, the number of observed products to be priced for each of them can be made proportional to those shares. The outlet and regional dimensions noted above mean that the estimation of weights involves a lot more than just the breakdown of expenditure by types of goods and services, and the number of separately weighted indexes composing the overall index depends upon two factors: The degree of detail to which, available data permit breakdown of total consumption expenditure in the weight reference-period by type of expenditure, region and outlet type. Whether there is reason to believe that price movements vary between these most detailed categories. How the weights are calculated, and in how much detail, depends upon the availability of information and upon the scope of the index. The situation in most countries comes somewhere between these two extremes. The point is to make the best use of whatever data are available. V.6.1 The Nature of the Data used for Weighting No firm rules can be suggested on this issue for the simple reason that the available statistical sources differ between countries. However, all countries conduct periodical Household Expenditure surveys and all produce breakdowns of Consumption Expenditure in their National Accounts. The expenditure classifications used there may however be different. In particular: Household Expenditure surveys do not cover the expenditures of foreign visitors, though these may be within the scope of a Consumer Price Index. National Accounts include imputed rents for owner-occupied dwellings which may not be within the scope of a Consumer Price Index Even with the necessary adjustments, the National Account estimates and Household Expenditure Surveys usually diverge.
