A Glimpse at the Future of Technology Enhanced ... - CiteSeerX

Download PDF
1 downloads 26097 Views 742KB Size Report
Comment
Learning scenarios and contexts, in the form of future technology-enhanced profes ..... Career paths are changing - rather than being employees, more and more ...
A Glimpse at the Future of Technology EnhancedProfessional Learning: Trends, scenarios and visions Vana Kamtsiou1, Tapio Koskinen2, Ambjörn Naeve3, Dimitra Pappa1, and Lampros Stergioulas4

The roadmapping processes The Prolearn roadmapping process aims to provide us with the information of where we are (current state) and were we want to go (vision/foresight/desired future). Once this is achieved we will be in a position to determine how we can get there (action plan). The process includes the following stages (Figure 1):

1

Division of Applied Technologies, National Centre for Scientific Research - Demokritos, 15310 Agia Paraskevi, Attiki, Greece {vana;dimitra}@dat.demokritos.gr 2 Lifelong Learning Institute Dipoli, Helsinki University of Technology, P.O.B. 8000, 02015 HUT, Finland [email protected] 3 Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), NADA, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden [email protected] 4 Department of Information Systems and Computing, Brunel University, Kingston Lane, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK [email protected]

• Vision: tacit idea representing the desired future state • Expressed future state: instantiation of the vision in a formal and systematic way • Gap analysis: between the current state of the art and desired future state (critical capabilities needed to implement one or more vision statements) • Actions: a portfolio of short-, mid- and long-term actions and recommendations, based on the gap analysis Where we want to go?

Visions

The paper presents future visions of technology enhanced professional learning as expressed in a pan-European roadmapping activity. A new approach is introduced and employed to develop a roadmap for technology enhanced professional learning. Interesting findings from the first phase, which identified the future visions are presented and their analysis using conceptual mapping is proposed.

Introduction The aim of this foresight study is to map out the desired future for technologyenhanced professional learning (TEPL) in the form of prevalent visions in the community at large. The study represents the first phase of a larger technology roadmapping activity aiming to provide a 10-year-span technology roadmap for European professional training, an initiative which has been launched within the Prolearn Network of Excellence [23]. The Prolearn Network of Excellence focuses on identifying the emerging future eLearning scenarios and contexts, in the form of future technology-enhanced professional learning resources, and the use of these learning resources for professional training in Small/Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and larger companies. In pursuing this, the Prolearn Network of Excellence aims to also advance the state-of-the-art in the critical areas of personalized adaptive learning and interactive media, with learning resources connected to real-world settings and reusable in different contexts. This paper first describes the specific methodology employed in order to compile a roadmap for technology-enhanced professional learning for the mid-term future (the next 10 years). It then follows on to describe in detail the work of the first phase (future visions) and discusses preliminary results. The work has brought together external experts and industry stakeholders in order to synthesize and combine knowledge.

Expressed future state

How to get there? Gap Analysis

Actions

Figure 1. Roadmapping stages

In Figure 1, the first two stages comprise Phase 1 (Where do we want to go? - outputs: Vision statements and Expressed future state) and the last two stages comprise Phase 2 (How can we get there? - outputs: Critical capabilities and recommended actions). This paper is concerned with the formulation of the future visions (Phase 1). In Phase 1, the future scenarios and the shared visions are identified and a framework is set up for the subsequent gap analysis. A variety of activities, including scenario building, international forums, surveys and workshops with experts, are used to derive and express the visions, in terms of the core concepts (vision statements, goals and influential factors). The main principle is “finding the currents that lead you where you want to go” (proactive), instead of “floating in the currents you are presently in” (reactive). In the framework of Prolearn, roadmapping is a knowledge creating process (Figure 2) that spirals outwards from the core partners of the Prolearn Network (individuals, groups, the whole Network) via the Network’s associated partners, to the entire scientific community and industry. Therefore, it is both a learning activity and a knowledge creation process for the community building the roadmap. According to Nonaka [13-17], the key to knowledge creation lies in the following four SECI modes of knowledge conversion, which occur when tacit knowledge and explicit knowledge interact with each other: • Socialization (sharing tacit knowledge): The process of sharing experiences (tacit knowledge), thereby creating new tacit knowledge. • Externalization (converting tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge): The process of articulation and conversion of tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge.

• Combination (Systematic combining of explicit knowledge): The process of restructuring and aggregating explicit knowledge into new explicit knowledge. • Internalization (Internalizing new knowledge as tacit knowledge by the organization): The process of reflecting on explicit knowledge and embodying explicit knowledge into tacit knowledge. According to Nonaka, because tacit knowledge includes mental models and beliefs in addition to know-how, moving from tacit to the explicit is really a process of articulating one’s vision of the world - i.e. what it is and what it ought to be. When individuals invent new knowledge, they are also reinventing themselves, their organization and even the world [13-17]. Similarly, knowledge creation in a roadmapping exercise is a continuous process where individuals and groups transcend their boundaries by acquiring a new context, a new view of the subject domain, and new knowledge. The employed roadmapping process model (Figure 2) is derived from the SECI process by replacing the triplet of social entities {Individual, Group, and Organization} with {Core Partners, Associate Partners, and Scientific Community & Industry} [3,9]. Systemizing ba

Knowledge

OUTPUT Manifestos Gap Analysis

Reflective Analysis tools

INPUT Context Maps Connecting Deducing

Conceptual modeling tools

Combination

Explicit

Dialoguing ba

Internalization

Reflecting Embodyin g

Associate Core

Tacit

Community building events

OUTPUT Explicit Vision Collective perspective

INPUT - Scenarios - Trends - Seed visions

Articulating Conceptualizing

OUTPUT Increased Understanding Actions & time plans

Scientific Community & Industry Externalization

Exercising ba INPUT Manifestos Gap Analysis

ferent stakeholders in a variety of Professional situations. Desktop research and online surveys are also used during this phase. The aim was to create seed visions that can be used as input for starting a dialogue with external groups. The next step was to initiate a dialogue with external experts and industry stakeholders in order to synthesize and combine knowledge. In this activity, it is important to bring together people with different expertise and scientific backgrounds. A symposium with researchers, academics, industry experts and policy makers was organized where the seed visions were discussed and extended by others. Interviews with companies, forums and virtual communities are also set up in order to test, validate and update the vision statements. During the Combination process, the outcomes of the dialogues are analyzed in order to clearly systematize concepts, identify trends and factors influencing those concepts and analyze their relationships. During this phase we use conceptual modeling tools. The different context maps are studied and the final vision statements are derived. The resulting knowledge is formulated and presented using the Conzilla browser tool. [8, 10, 11]. The resulting model is an “electronic document” in the form of a Java applet, which is available at www.conzilla.org/demo/RM.html During internalization process, this explicit knowledge, in turn, can be reflected upon and internalized into new tacit knowledge. In the later Phase 2, the critical elements for achieving the vision statements will be identified and a gap analysis of what is available and what is missing (needed for the future) will be performed. Prolearn roadmapping is not a linear process and more cycles of the SECI Spiral will follow. Figure 3 provides a more in depth view of the spiraling ‘express future state” process which transcends individual views and experiences to form collective knowledge at a macro level (definition of desired future state – shared vision).

Socialization INPUT networking Activities projects

Originating ba Experiencing Empathizing

OUTPUT Increased individual understanding

Tools supporting debate

Figure 2. The Prolearn roadmapping process Framework (based on the SECI model)

During the Socialization process, networking activities and community building tools are important. Face to face meetings, various workshops, and virtual meetings have been organized to bring together the wider community of the Prolearn network (both core and associate partners spanning more than 300 organizations) on a common contextual platform and tap into their collective experience and knowledge. During the Externalization process, awareness was raised of the key issues involved in TEPL, and the implicit concepts and ideas originated during the socialization process were expressed. Individual views and visions were expressed via scenarios produced by Prolearn partners, and by other experts and initiatives, and also through brainstorming sessions where individual visions were discussed and extended. These activities provided with a good indication of what TEPL means to dif-

Figure 3. Express future state

Prolearn teams (Workpackages), play a central role in this knowledge creation process of building the roadmap because they provide the shared context where the team members can interact with each other and engage themselves in common projects and activities on which effective reflection depends. This provides a new individual understanding of the relevant concepts and their relationships. This new “know-how” is articulated via a constant dialogue where teams pool their information and examine it from different angles, thus integrating their diverse individual perspectives into a w collective perspective. The resulting “seed” knowledge is modeled and

conceptualized and thus is easily communicated to external groups in order to synthesize information from many different sources and bring in different perspectives and contexts. In that way, an increased collective understanding is achieved where the actual concepts and their contexts are reinvented and extended by others. To this end, the micro and macro dimensions interact with each other, and changes occur at both the micro and the macro level. Thus the existing visions of the core partners of the Prolearn network (micro) influence and at the same time are influenced by the environment (macro) with which the network interacts. Figure 4 is a quick summary of the roadmapping activities. We are working at both micro and macro levels: Micro level involves activities that are raising awareness in the relevant foresight issues in TEPL Macro level involves activities that are synthesizing and combining knowledge and expertise. In parallel we are analyzing and presenting the resulted knowledge using conceptual modeling tools and Conzilla browser.

Figure 4. Prolearn roadmapping activities

Formulation of Visions Initial findings included both the identification of major trends and the articulation of vision statements for the desired future state. A number of instruments have been employed to identify major trends and derive vision statements from stakeholders, including: Scenario analysis, brainstorming sessions, international Roadmapping forums; Interviews with companies (to generate discussion on the vision statements);

Virtual communities on the web and multi-target large scale online survey of current trends. Scenario Analysis In order to draw the roadmap between the current state (As-Is) and the desired future state (To-Be), detailed possible future scenarios were developed. The training solutions described in the scenarios represent realistic everyday training ten years from now in various professional situations. Twenty five scenarios were processed and analyzed and the key drivers and factors per scenario were identified. During the scenario analysis process, we have described the primary focus of each scenario as the scenario training context, the business requirements as the driving forces behind the scenario, and the focus areas, where the focus should be if one wanted to realize the scenario. The sources for the 25 scenarios were the following: 11 scenarios have been independently developed by Prolearn core and associated partners, 7 scenarios were analyzed from the work of Norris et al. [18]; Time2Learn Thematic Network (EU) [31]: 1 scenario; ROCKET project (EU)[27]: 2 scenarios; Ariel Project (EU): 4 scenarios. Analyzing the scenarios, we start from identifying the key business requirements which are considered to be the driving force behind the scenarios. The rationale behind these groups of drivers is primarily economic, centered on the use of TEPL in order to improve competitiveness in EU companies. Four different sets of business requirements have been identified. Each set has a different focus. The first 3 sets are more focused on the intrinsic business requirements and are differentiated by the intended result of the training: a) TEPL supporting Continuous Improvement in Companies (micro level); b) TEPL supporting Business Process Re-engineering in Companies (medium level); c) TEPL supporting Goal Oriented Change in Companies (macro level). The 4th set is focused more on the market requirements and the emergence of knowledge exchanges and new ways of knowledge management. TEPL supporting Continuous Improvement in Companies (micro level) • Competency development of the current workforce in a short period of time: (e.g. Training on demand, triggered by immediate project needs) • Training built into the work itself (Workflow learning) • Solve performance problems related to standard or specialized projects • Introducing new employees to an organization/project/role • Support collaborative work on new interdisciplinary topics TEPL supporting Business Process Re-engineering in Companies (medium level) • Changes in management strategies • Cost accounting for the cost and price of knowledge • Value on investment drives ICT developments • Linking training to business processes and re-conceptualize learning processes • Internal communication problems among different company’s departments, branches or within project teams

• Managers and employees as knowledge and learning activists • Role out of new or improve standard process and maintain it TEPL supporting Goal Oriented Change in Companies (macro level) • Technology enhanced learning driven by changes in corporate strategy, goals, new products • Introduction of new products/services to the market under stringent timelines (time-to-market) • New forms of organization, new types of learners, such creating and leading teams across the new ecosystems of suppliers, partners and customers • Need to align business goals and processes among newly acquired partner companies (fusion of KM, LMS and business processes) Knowledge exchanges • E-Repositories and Knowledge Marker places • Vertical silos of traditional content providers are broken up by the horizontal structures of marketplace exchanges • Market places set relationships with aggregators of supply and aggregators of demand • Many sources-publishers, universities, professional societies, and trade associations, and learning management system in companies - in different levels of granularity • Marketplace pool explicit and tacit knowledge plus performances and experiences • Added value services: content assessment and review, aggregations of knowledge recommended by experts, training assessment, use search engines, and other user support tools, personalization of learning curricular, consulting services, access to communities of practice and experts networks The next step was to identify the main priority areas where most of the new challenges are found: the technology area and the socio-cultural area. • Technology Area: Knowledge markets; Content Development, management and delivery (anytime, anywhere); Processes, models and infrastructures; “Ambient Intelligence”. • Socio Cultural Area: Collaboration & Communities of Practice; Informal learning, capture and exchange of tacit knowledge; New University structures (i.e. Corporate University); Universities as providers of learning services adapted to corporate needs; Associations (Professional, Trade Unions) offering access to experts and communities of practice.

Trends affecting TEPL From the outputs of the above mentioned instruments a raft of major trends, which are perceived to be highly influential for the future of TEPL, were identified and categorized as follows: Market The producers are becoming consumers and vice versa – there are indications that this distinction is now becoming irrelevant. This blending of producing and consuming, gives birth to a new type of consumers, called “prosumers” [32], who become directly involved in the creative process of products design and manufacture. “Prosumers” are part of a proactive market that develops individually tailored products (mass customization). People Career paths are changing - rather than being employees, more and more people are now self –employed. There is also a move from national/ethnic identities towards increasing impact of interests and motives. Also Europe faces an undeniable trend of an aging population and workforce. Skills. In the skills base, there is a move from simpler to more complex skills and from slowly changing to faster changing. Work patterns. There is a move towards the destandardisation of working hours and lifestyles, gradually shifting from serial (8 hours) to parallel (24/7/365) work patterns and the boundaries between living and working gradually blur. Companies The modern economy is becoming increasingly “digital”, as bytes replace bricks and enterprises witness a move from production of goods towards intangible assets, such as media, software, and the provision services. Organisations become “smart” [1] and “agile”, i.e. are knowledge-driven, internetworked, dynamically adaptive to new organisational forms and practices. Company structures move from vertical position-based hierarchies to horizontal project based interdisciplinary teams, stemming out of intra- and inter-organisational collaborations. This shift from rule directed to problem/project based work, results in flatter, leaner organizational structures with increased self regulation and less day to day direction from the top. Business processes. There is a move from low capital costs to customer perceived values, as the customer becomes the reference point of all activities.

Employees. At the workplace there is a move from close supervision to more independence and responsibility. This implies leadership qualities. Employees are expected to form networks within and outside their organizations, master the skills of creative collaboration, respond to frequently changing priorities, and assume personal responsibility for setting their own direction. This increased autonomy is a new source of stress in the workplace. Products and Services. There is a move from standardized forms of production and delivery to customized forms and from in-house operations to more flexible outsourced forms. Traditional companies are loosening up, moving from value chains to value nets.

Findings of the European Experts’ Symposium on Future and Emerging Issues in TEPL The objectives of this symposium [1] were to identify, record, discuss and analyze the emerging issues of technology enhanced professional learning and to pave the way for common future actions. The symposium had a unique focus on the future of technology enhanced professional learning and was a two-day-event involving 67 distinguished experts representing various sectors of the European Education and Training Community. The symposium participants were engaged in highly interactive, structured sessions that have been formed around six main themes. The working method employed in the symposium is known as “learning discussion forum” or “Learning Café which involved expert’s introductions and group discussions. The unique composition of the symposium together, with its pioneering methodology of synergy and interaction, provided and documented new ideas and concerns, which were crystallized in a series of observations, important for future planning in this field. The dialogue resulted in the articulation of the following interesting points: • The vision for the future Knowledge Workers focuses on three main axes: (i) promotion of innovation, creativity, proficiency and flexibility in learning and work, (ii) maximum employability of the European labor force, and (iii) equal opportunities in education and career. • The management of human resources has to change and learning has to be integrated in the working and business processes. • Time-to-proficiency becomes increasingly important in order for the European companies to stay competitive. Therefore, there is a need to improve the conditions for individual and organizational learning significantly and systematically in order to increase the learning speed and the ability of individual workers as well as companies to change rapidly. • The training programmes have to be aligned with the strategic goals of the enterprise.

• A tendency of convergence between work and personal life is observed, where the lines between learning and work, work and leisure, and also formal, informal, non formal forms of learning, are becoming more and more blurred. • The need of greater flexibility in professional development is a stress-inducing factor for the employees, as it creates intense feelings of insecurity towards work. • Greater understanding is needed on what the knowledge worker needs are and what the skills and competencies in the new knowledge society and knowledge work should be. There is also a need to identify the underlying factors that have a major impact on knowledge worker productivity, some of them being very difficult to measure, such as values, self-image, traits and motives. • An important change relating to the organization of jobs and company structures is emerging, which tends towards the demise of hierarchy as well as of specific titles and job descriptions, with a strong tendency towards flexible types of jobs defined by the particular “project” assignments. • An increased imbalance of education was identified between higher ranked and lower ranked employees, as well as between small and large enterprises. In reality, “the future is already here but unequally distributed”. • The most-likely-to-succeed future type of training will be the “personalized learning”, which offers to the specific person the right skills, at the right time within the specific context (work, social, technical, cognitive etc). • There is also evidence of increasing convergence between official and unofficial training The Athens High-Level Symposium with International Experts [2] refined the output and articulated an overarching, condensed statement of the Future Vision, emphasizing “the promotion of innovation, creativity, flexibility in learning and work, employability, and equal opportunities”. Core vision for TEPL in 2015 The Prolearn Summer School Roadmapping Workshop [25] integrated the results from the various Prolearn foresight activities and came up with the following core vision for the future TEPL: “To support knowledge workers with technology-enhanced learning by promoting motivation, performance, collaboration, innovation and commitment to lifelong learning.” In this context, a knowledge worker is defined as someone who doesn’t just consume knowledge but who is able to create it and who reflects critically on every level of activity in the organization and contributes back. The six vision statements The Core vision is broken into 6 individual vision statements that synthesize and explain the core vision. Each vision statement has its distinct overall perspectives and focus. They represent different and complementary views of the core vision i.e. IST view, industry views, learner view, market and societal dimensions.

• Vision statement I: “Everyone should be able to learn anything at anytime at anyplace.” The main goal is to provide the right learning experiences at the right time for the right person. The statement is closely linked to the IST challenge. It embraces issues of digital convergence of communication networks, media, content and devices. The new capabilities offered by recent advances in mobile and internet communications can support and facilitate mobility towards a lifelong learning environment, enabling the creation, storage, management and access to knowledge everywhere and every time. The aim is to create and deliver a personalized learning experience to everyone. • Vision statement II (Industry Challenge): “Learning as a means to support and enhance work performance.” The main goals are to support human performance improvements and to provide links between business processes, competencies and learning processes; and use TEPL to design high quality work-based learning activities so that learning and working becomes interlocked. The statement is related to specific industry challenges, such as performance support and performance improvements at the work place. • Vision statement III (Industry Challenge): “Promote innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship at work.” This vision encompasses a variety of goals such as: a) Learning supporting radical change in an organization and improving ability to change; and b) Competency development (including thinking out of the box, creativity, asking the right questions, leadership). The statement is related to industry challenges such as investment and development of the company’s human capital and use of learning to support ability to change in organization • Vision statement IV: “Learning as a means to increase employability.” This statement focuses on the Learner’s perspective, the employees’ continuous professional development, and the need to increase employability. The goals in this vision include resilience, employability, getting skilled faster and personal growth. Enhanced mobility, employability and competency of the European workforce. Portability of learning achievements is one of the key-issues to be addressed. • Vision statement V: Market take-up. “Professional e-learning will be a commodity market in 2015.” This statement focuses on market take up of TEPL and the ability to purchase content and learning services regardless of type and country of the learner supplier in a unified transparent market. The main goals in this vision include market transparency, consumer driven market, one-stop-shopping, wider choice at all levels, and selection optimization. Development of both segments of the market: from the low end commodity market to the high end upscale, high value added segment. There are two alternative ways to achieving this vision. One is about the commodity market being based on the “canned courses” concept, while the other is based on communities of practice and collaborative creation and sharing of professional know-how. • Vision statement VI: Socially inclusion. “High quality learning for all”. This statement addresses social inclusion issues, such as digital divide, the gap between poor and rich etc. The goal will be to democratize knowledge provision and to support the so-called e-Inclusion and equal opportunities for all in the workplace.

tions of all stakeholders : the individual (VS I & IV), the enterprise (VS II & III), the market (VS V) and the European society as a whole (VS VI).

As depicted in Figure 5, the PROLEARN vision statements provide a holistic picture of the desired future of TEPL in an outwards spiraling way that highlights the aspira-

[1] Filos E., Banahan E., “Towards the Smart Organisation. An Emerging Organisa tional Paradigm and the Contribution of the European RTD Programmes”, 2000

Figure 5. The six vision statements address a variety of challenges in professional learning embracing all levels of the socio-economic system.

Conclusion Recent findings from a pan-European roadmapping exercise on the future of technology-enhanced professional training have been presented in terms of visions describing the desired future state. A new approach to roadmapping was employed, while the task of identifying the prevalent future visions involved a series of consensus building activities including scenario building and a number of community-based surveys and forums. The prevalent visions for the next 10 years seem to be centered on leveraging technology to promote (a) high performance for businesses through innovation, creativity, and flexibility, and (b) increased security for individuals in the form of employability and assuredness of equal opportunity.

References

[2] High-Level Symposium with International Experts on Technology Enhanced Professional Learning – Athens 19 and 20 December 2005. www.dat.demokritos.gr/pl [3] Kamtsiou, V., et. al. (2005) Roadmapping Methodology and Framework Analysis, version 2, Prolearn Deliverable 12.6, June 2005. [4] Kamtsiou, V., Stergioulas, L. K., Koskinen, T. (2005) A roadmapping framework for technology enhanced professional training, Proceedings of the 8th IFIP World Conference on Computers in Education (WCCE 2005), Cape Town, South Africa, 4-7 July 2005, pp. 157166. [5] Kappel, Th. (2001) Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future. The Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 18. [6] Lytras, M., Naeve, A., Pouloudi, A. (2005) A Knowledge Management Roadmap for ELearning: The Way Ahead, International Journal of Distance Education Technologies, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 68-75, (Special Issue on Knowledge management Technologies for ELearning), April-June 2005. [7] Naeve, A. (2001a) The Knowledge Manifold - an educational architecture that Supports Inquiry-Based Customizable Forms of E-learning, Proc. of the 2nd European Web-based Learning Environments Conference (WBLE 2001), pp. 200-212, Lund, Oct. 24-26, 2001 http://kmr.nada.kth.se/papers/KnowledgeManifolds/KnowledgeManifold.pdf. [8] Naeve, A. (2001b) The Concept Browser - a New Form of Knowledge Management Tool, Proc. of the 2nd European Web-Based Learning Environment conference, pp. 151-161, Lund, Sweden, October 24-26, 2001, http://kmr.nada.kth.se/papers/ConceptualBrowsing/ConceptBrowser.pdf. [9] Naeve, A., Yli-Luoma, P., Kravcik, M., Lytras, M., Simon, B., Lindegren, M., Nilsson, M., Palmér, M., Korfiatis, N., Wild, F., Wessblad, R., Kamtsiou, V., Pappa, D., Kieslinger, B. (2005). A Conceptual Modeling Approach to Studying the Learning Process - with a Special Focus on Knowledge Creation. Deliverable 5.3 of the Prolearn EU/FP6 Network of Excellence, IST 507310, June 2005 [10] Naeve, A. (2005), The Human Semantic Web – Shifting from Knowledge Push to Knowledge Pull, International Journal of Semantic Web and Information Systems (IJSWIS), Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 1-30, July- September 2005. [11] Naeve, A., Nilsson, M., Palmér, M. (2001) The Conceptual Web - our research vision, Proceedings of the first Semantic Web Working Symposium, Stanford, July 2001, www.semanticweb.org/SWWS/program/position/soi-nilsson.pdf [12] Naumanen, M. (2001) Roadmap – Kartta menestykseen. In MET-julkaisuja nro 23/2001, Finland. [13] Nonaka, I. (1994) A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation, Organization Science, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 14-37. [14] Nonaka, I., Takeuchi, H. (1995) The knowledge-creating company: How Japanese companies create the dynamics of innovation, New York: Oxford University Press. [15] Nonaka, I. and Toyama, R. (2003) The knowledge-creating theory revisited: knowledge creation as a synthesizing process, Knowledge Management Research & Practice, Vol. 1, No.1, pp. 2–10 [16] Nonaka, I., Konno, N., The concept of “Ba”: Building foundation for knowledge creation. California Management Review Vol 40, No.3, Spring 1998. [17] Nonaka, I., Toyama, R., Konno, N. (2000) SECI, Ba and Leadership: a Unified Model of Dynamic Knowledge Creation, Long Range Planning, Vol. 33 (2000), Elsevier Science Ltd. [18] Norris, D., Mason, J., Lefrère, P., (2003).Transforming e-knowledge, 2003. [19] Novak, J. D. (1990) Concept maps and Vee diagrams: Two metacognitive tools for science and mathematics education, Instructional Science, 19, pp. 29-52. [20] Novak, J. D. (1991) Clarity with concept maps, The science teacher 58(7), pp. 45-49. [21] Novak, J. D. The Theory Underlying Concept Maps and How to Construct them, http://cmap.coginst.uwf.edu/info/printer.html

[22] Palmér, M., Naeve, A. (2005) Conzilla – a Conceptual Interface to the Semantic Web, Invited paper at the 13th International Conference on Conceptual Structures, Kassel, July 1822, 2005. To be published in the series of Springer Lecture Notes on Computer Science. [23] Prolearn Network of Excellence, http://www.prolearn-project.org [24] Prolearn network (2004) Roadmap methodology and framework analysis, Deliverable D12.1.2, IST [25] Prolearn Summer School Roadmapping Workshop at the Prolearn Summer School, Istanbul, Turkey, 5-9 September 2005. [26] Probert, D., Radnor, M. (2003) Frontier Experiences from Industry-Academia Consortia, Research Technology Management, Vol. 46, No. 2. [27] ROCKET project (2002) The state -of-the-art of Roadmapping, Deliverable D2.2, IST2001-38245 ROCKET project (Roadmap to communicating knowledge essential for the industrial environment). [28] Rumbaugh, J., Jacobson, I., Booch, G. (1999) The Unified Modeling Language Reference Manual, Addison Wesley Longman Inc. [29] Rehak, D. (2003), A SCORM Roadmap: SCORM’s Technical Evolution, http://www.lsal.cmu.edu/lsal/expertise/papers/presentations/pf8roadmap2003/roadmap2003 1028.pdf [30] Takeuchi, H., Nonaka, I., (eds) (2004) Hitotsubashi on Knowledge Management, Wiley & Sons, 2004. [31] Time2Learn network (2004) Needs assessment for future professional training in Europe, Deliverable D2-2, IST Time2Learn Thematic Network, http://www.time2learn.org

[32] Toffler A., “The third wave”, New York: Bantam 1981

PROLEARN ROADMAP eLIG workshop 3.7.2006 Espoo, Finland

WP12 objectives to build a roadmap that will: ¾ will integrate business drivers with enabling technologies to provide a logical framework of coordinating R&D to meet the grand challenges for European Technology Enhanced Professional Learning ¾ develop a value accumulating, ongoing roadmapping process with a high potential for sustainability ¾ Promote a knowledge network of roadmapping that amplifies the efforts of various groups and crystallize them at European level

1

What is a roadmap? ‰ A Roadmap is not a tool for predicting the future

‰ A Roadmap is a time-based plan that defines – where we are (state of the art) – where we want to go (vision statements) – how to get there (action plan) ‰ A Roadmap is a learning process for the interested community

Components of the PROLEARN roadmap Where we want to go?

How to get there?

Vision: tacit idea representing the desired future state Expressed future state: instantiation of the vision in a formal and systematic way (vision statements = challenges) The underline concepts, their contexts and their relationships are analysed and articulated and modelled

Gap analysis: between the current state of the art and desired future state (critical capabilities needed to implement one or more vision statements) Actions: a portfolio of short-, mid- and long-term actions and recommendations, based on the gap analysis

2

Desired future “finding the currents that lead you where you want to go” (proactive), instead of “floating in the currents you are presently in” (reactive)

Everyone tries to formulate their own desired future, as a result of this no one will have the desired future, and the reality will focus on negotiation, ongoing interplay that will actually form the future.

our starting point is to invent the future first and to “plan backwards” from there in order to link up with today

Roadmap framework ¾ In the framework of PROLEARN, roadmapping is a knowledge creating process that spirals outwards from the core partners of the PROLEARN Network (individuals, groups, the whole Network) via the Network’s associated partners, to the entire scientific community and industry. ¾ Therefore, it is both a learning activity and a knowledge creation process for the community that builds the roadmap. ¾ According to Nonaka the key to knowledge creation lies in the following four SECI modes of knowledge conversion, which occur when tacit knowledge and explicit knowledge interact with each other.

“ Because tacit knowledge includes mental models and beliefs in addition to know-how, moving from tacit to the explicit is really a process of articulating one’s vision of the world – what it is and what it ought to be.” Nonaka

3

SECI MODES- knowledge creation • Socialization (sharing tacit knowledge): The process of sharing experiences (tacit knowledge), thereby creating new tacit knowledge. • Externalization (converting tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge): The process of articulation and conversion of tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge. • Combination (Systematic combining of explicit knowledge): The process of restructuring and aggregating explicit knowledge into new explicit knowledge. • Internalization (Internalizing new knowledge as tacit knowledge by the organization): The process of reflecting on explicit knowledge and embodying explicit knowledge into tacit knowledge.

4

THE ROADMAPPING KNOWLEDGE PROCESS MODEL – A continuous process Systemizing ba OUTPUT Manifestos Gap Analysis

Reflective Analysis tools

Knowledge

Conceptual modeling tools

INPUT Context Maps Connecting Deducing

Combination

Explicit

Dialoguing ba

Internalization

Reflecting Embodyin g

Associate Core

Tacit

Community building events

OUTPUT Explicit Vision Collective perspective

INPUT - Scenarios - Trends - Seed visions

Articulating Conceptualizing

OUTPUT Increased Understanding Actions & time plans

Scientific Community & Industry Externalization

Exercising ba INPUT Manifestos Gap Analysis

Socialization INPUT networking Activities projects

Originating ba Experiencing Empathizing

OUTPUT Increased individual understanding

Tools supporting debate

The PROLEARN Roadmapping Process Framework (future state)

micro

macro

From individual views and experiences to collective knowledge

5

Prolearn Roadmapping Activities Micro level (raised awareness in relevant foresight issues in TEPL) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

Scenario writing and collection Scenarios process and analysis First set key factors Joint work with WP6 on user and market requirements Prolearn Summer School roadmapping workshop: output first set of vision statements Literature studies and desk research (results fed into a questionnaire on trends) Pre-survey to test the questionnaire

Macro level: (synthesizing and combining knowledge and expertise from external groups) ‰ ‰ ‰

Roadmapping forums Various workshops (EDEN, GAs, IAB, LEONIE, IPTS, LOMI seminars) Symposium – Athens 19 and 20 December 2005 (2nd version of V.S.)

Ongoing work ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

Large scale online survey on trends (EducaNext, elearningeuropa, VCC) Interviews with companies (vision statement discussion) Set up of virtual communities: VCC Future states of TEPL – final version of vision statements

Analysis (Concepts definition, Trends and factors analysis, analysis of relationships conceptual modeling) e.g. wiki on professional learning, learning ontology (WP1), vision statements analysis Presentation of the resulted knowledge at Conzilla browser

Scenarios ¾ 25 scenarios were processed and analyzed ¾ Scenario sources: ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

PROLEARN: 11 scenarios “Transforming knowledge 2003”, Paul Lefrere: 7 scenarios Time2Learn project: 1 scenario ROCKET project: 2 scenarios Ariel Project: 4 scenarios.

6

Scenarios analysis process The Scenarios Training Contexts

The driving forces behind the scenario, Why this scenario?

Drivers

Where the focus should be if we wanted to realize the scenario? Challenges

Political

Socio-Cultural

Business

Priority Areas

Technology

The primary focus of the scenario

Business drivers affecting TEPL Economic… rational…improve competitiveness of EU companies… TEPL supporting Continuous Improvement in Companies (micro) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

Competency development of the current workforce in a short period of time: (e.g. Training on demand, triggered by immediate project needs) Training built into the work itself (Workflow learning) Solve performance problems related to standard or specialized projects Introducing new employees to an organization/project/role Support collaborative work on new interdisciplinary topics

TEPL supporting Business Process Re-engineering in Companies (meso) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

Changes in management strategies Context and competence base grouping of employees Linking training to business processes and re-conceptualize learning processes Role out of new or improve standard process and maintain it Cost accounting for the cost and price of knowledge Value on investment drives ICT developments Internal communication problems among different company’s departments, branches or within project teams Managers and employees as knowledge and learning activists

TEPL supporting Goal Oriented Change in Companies (macro) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

Technology enhanced learning driven by changes in corporate strategy, goals, new products Introduction of new products/services to the market under stringent timelines (time-to-market) New forms of organization, new types of learners, such creating and leading teams across the new ecosystems of suppliers, partners and customers Need to align business goals and processes among newly acquired partner companies (fusion of KM, LMS and business processes)

7

Business drivers affecting TEPL External (Market) Drivers: Knowledge exchanges

‰ E-Repositories and Knowledge Marker places ‰ Vertical silos of traditional content providers are broken up by the horizontal structures of marketplace exchanges ‰ Market places set relationships with aggregators of supply and aggregators of demand ‰ Many sources-publishers, universities, professional societies, and trade associations, and learning management system in companies - in different levels of granularity ‰ Marketplace pool explicit and tacit knowledge plus performances and experiences ‰ Added value services: content assessment and review, aggregations of knowledge recommended by experts, training assessment, use search engines, and other user support tools, personalization of learning curricular, consulting services, access to communities of practice and experts networks

Priority areas for TEPL: Technology (1) 4 themes of rapid developments within the Technology area Knowledge exchanges ‰ e-Repositories and participation in knowledge marketplaces ‰ Educational brokers ‰ Open content initiatives (user –generated content) Content Development, management and delivery (anytime anywhere) ‰ Authoring tools for fast content development ‰ Knowledge objects can be delivered in multiple formats ‰ Knowledge objects can be repurposed and reused in any setting and context ‰ Knowledge and learning content is enriched with context-dependent metadata ‰ Learning is personalized and adaptive to the employee’s situational parameters

8

Priority areas for TEPL: Technology (2) 4 themes of rapid developments within the Technology area Processes, models and infrastructures ‰ Linking training to the business processes ‰ ERP, LMS, KM are fused into enterprise applications infrastructure ‰ Fusion of Learning and enterprise’s distributed processes ‰ New transformed LCMS, LMS, KM tools ‰ New learning concepts and methodologies ‰ Workflow learning, training built into the work itself “Ambient – intelligence” ‰ Ambient knowledge combined with artificial intelligence to create “ambient eintelligence” ‰ Low cost micro devices ‰ Intelligent agents become usual personal assistants ‰ Mobile, pervasive computing and devices are used for knowledge delivery ‰ Live, interactive online learning, virtual classrooms, web conferences ‰ Wearable devices

Priority areas for TEPL: Socio Cultural ‰ Collaboration – Communities of Practice ‰ Informal learning, capture and exchange of tacit knowledge ‰ New University structures (i.e. Corporate University) ‰ Universities as providers of learning services adapted to corporate needs (e.g. New business models for marketoriented design of academic learning solutions) ‰ Associations (Professional – Trade Unions) offer access to experts and communities of practice

9

The six main sessions of the symposium: Industry challenges in Professional Learning: Time-toproficiency, Competency and Human Capital Management. How to promote Learning Culture, Knowledge Sharing and Innovation? The theme was introduced by Richard Straub (IBM, eLIG) Trends that are shaping the E&T in Europe: economical, sociocultural and political. The theme was introduced by Claudio Dondi (Scienter) Learners perspective: Continuous Professional Development, employability, flexibility and survivability of European citizens; New paradigms of learning. The theme was introduced by Mervyn Jones (Imperial College, IACEE) Technology trends and their impact on learning, training, processes and organizations. The theme was introduced by Wayne Hodgins (Autodesk, IEEE) New forms of organization: partnerships, changing workplace organizations, networked organizations, value-networks. The theme was introduced by Wayne Hodgins (Autodesk, IEEE) Prolearn perspective: Future directions of Technology Enhanced Professional Learning - Learning Manifesto. The theme was introduced by Erik Duval (Ariadne) and Vana Kamtsiou (NCSR Demokritos)

Symposium main conclusions ¾ The vision for the future Knowledge Workers focuses on three main axes: ‰ promotion of innovation, creativity, proficiency and flexibility in learning and work, ‰ maximum employability of the European labor force, and ‰ equal opportunities in education and career.

¾ The management of human resources has to change and learning has to be integrated in the working and business processes. ¾ Time-to-proficiency becomes increasingly important in order for the European companies to stay competitive. ¾ The training programmes have to be aligned with the strategic goals of the enterprise. ¾ A tendency of convergence between work and personal life is observed, where the lines between learning and work, work and leisure, and also formal, informal, non formal forms of learning, are becoming more and more blurred. ¾ The need of greater flexibility in professional development is a stressinducing factor for the employees, as it creates intense feelings of insecurity towards work.

10

Symposium main conclusions ¾ Greater understanding is needed on what the knowledge worker needs are and what the skills and competencies in the new knowledge society and knowledge work should be.. ¾ An important change relating to the organization of jobs and company structures is emerging, which tends towards the demise of hierarchy as well as of specific titles and job descriptions, with a strong tendency towards flexible types of jobs defined by the particular “project” assignments. ¾ An increased imbalance of education was identified between higher ranked and lower ranked employees, as well as between small and large enterprises. In reality, “the future is already here but unequally distributed”. ¾ The most-likely-to-succeed future type of training will be the “personalized learning”, which offers to the specific person the right skills, at the right time within the specific context (work, social, technical, cognitive etc). ¾ We also observe an increasing convergence between official and unofficial training.

Vision statements – creation process ¾ 1st Prolearn Summer School Roadmapping sessions (Version1 seed vision for starting a dialogue) 5-9 September 2005 – Prolearn core partners ¾ Dedicated Forum on VCC (version2) ¾ Core vision + 6 vision statements ‰ Core vision: Overall grand challenge ‰ 6 snap-shots of the desired future ‰ 6 different approaches

¾ Presentation at the Industrial Advisory Board workshop in Munich, 10 October 2005 ¾ Workshop at General Assembly in Madrid, 15 November 2005 ¾ Symposium in Athens 19-20 December 2005 67 participants from Academia, industry, policy makers ¾ New version of visions statements (version 3)

¾ Scientific publications ¾ Validation of vision statements

TODAY

¾ Online survey on Trends ¾ Interviews with industry

¾ Final version of vision statements

11

Major Trends affecting TEPL Today

Producers

Standardized In-house

Vertical position-based hierarchy

entity

Tomorrow

Market

Consumers

Product and services

Company structures

Outsourced

Horizontal project based interdisciplinary teams Self –employed

Employees National identities

Customized

People

Interest & motives Aging

Young

More independence Close supervision

Employees

More responsibility

Major Trends affecting TEPL Today

entity

Simpler Slowly changing

Serial (8 hours)

Low capital costs

More complex

Skills

Work patterns

Business processes

Value chains

Production of goods

Tomorrow

Faster changing

Parallel (24/7/365)

Customer perceived values Value nets

Companies

Provision of services

12

Powerful trends Work Longer

Globalization

Competition

…make us…

Work harder Travel more

Labor shortage Work complexity

Learn faster

‰eLearning market trend: towards a commodity market and commercialization of learning

Core vision of TEPL in 2015 “Support knowledge workers with technology-enhanced learning by promoting motivation, performance, collaboration, innovation and commitment to lifelong learning.”

A knowledge worker is someone who: ‰ doesn’t just consume knowledge but who is able to create it ‰ reflects critically on every level of activity in the organization and contributes back.

13

6 vision statements

Goals 1 Professional Learning The ability to shift (selecting, choosing, finding) channels, information, knowledge available Decision support systems High Context dependency Filtering the trash offer Technology Mobility Ambience Ubiquity Software above the Level of the Single Device (PDA, mobile phone, Laptop etc.)

Outcome 1

Vision 1

“Everyone should be able to learn anything at anytime at anyplace” Goals ¾ to provide the right learning experiences at the right time for the right person at the right place

Ability to bridge the technology assimilation gaps Sustainable knowledge markets Aggregation of supply and demand from several sources including provision of value added services such as access to experts, communities of practice, experiences, consulting One stop shop for learning experiences Market places Knowledge brokers Peer leaning, peer mentoring, social learning Support systems for mentoring Social trading, reputation management Size of community contribute to the quality of content Adapting the Regulatory frameworks for learning, education and training Ethical, legal issues Improvement in the cost/benefit relation of the learning experience Open content exchange Wiki University

14

Goals 2

To leverage CoP as sources for learning experiences Realistic training on demand environments processes Individual learning strategies: Reward schemes, performance reward schemes assessment

Professional Learning

Outcome 2

Vision 2

“Learning at a means to support and enhance work performance”

performance indicators monitoring Utilization of the corporate KM system to its full Potential in performance improvement

Goals

Identify management is a key requirement in Effective use of corporate KM

¾ to support human performance improvements and to provide links between business processes, competencies and learning processes

The existence of knowledge hubs and networks of experts Promote true Learning Organization: from single loop to double loop and deutero learning Learning to learn in a realistic environment Learning must be connected to all corporate systems and processes (convergence of KM, LMS and ERP) Increase employees’ understanding of how their job relates to the Larger context of the company goals

¾Use TEPL to design high quality work-based learning activities so that learning and working becomes interlocked

Learning embedded in companies systems and software (combination of learning content with other technologies) Feedback mechanisms – external and internal AMI at work Monitoring of social discussions Monitoring of social discussions Monitoring of external environment Real life examples to link learning processes to real work context Make it meaningful – build meaning into parameters and words that everybody understands

Goals 3

Vision 3

Professional Learning

Outcome 3

“Promote innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship and work” Goals

Learner/employee empowerment (train your people on how to take more responsibility, independence) Project-based organizations Situated Learning: Self-organized Communities of Practice Social Processes (of knowledge sharing and collaboration): Managing diversity Collaboration/users contribution Web 2.0 applications Social learning, collaborative tools, software Knowledge Sharing Find peers and benchmarks to support learning learning from other’s experiences Knowledge networks, Communities of Practice Codifying of experiences across industry sectors Through new information hubs Intelligent agents

¾ learning supporting radical change in an organization and improving ability to change ¾To support innovation in an organization by enhancing knowledge sharing and collaboration ¾To develop specific competences related to thinking out of the box, creativity, asking the right questions, leadership

Search-based learning: using search engines to increase A better demand-driven access Mentoring and Coaching Gaming & simulation No algorithms that would guarantee a solution to something as intangible as innovation

15

Goals 4

Vision 4

Professional Learning

“Learning as a means to increase employability” Outcome 4

Personalization: Workplace based learning will facilitate employees’ skills development in tools and applications

Goals ¾ to promote resiliency, personal growth and fulfillment

Process integration and integration to Business management applications Increase adaptability: tools that enable building on personal strengths

¾To enhance mobility, employability and competency of the workforce

Training offer and knowledge content is tailored to meet the requirements of the individual customer, proactive learning instead of reactive teaching Self managed learning Portability of learning achievements Portfolios a and competency frameworks communicating the capabilities/ competency Map in to the work context The CVs and portfolios of today demonstrate that evidence building capacity is missing Career advisory services for the knowledge worker Mentorship, life planning, life management Leverage effectively other people’s experiences Entrepreneurship Self employment Taking responsibility of employment Market transparency for job opportunities across Europe

“Market take up driven by transparency, wider choice at all levels, selection optimization and consumer driven market”

Goals 5

Vision 5

Professional Learning

Outcome 5

Goals ¾to develop the low end commodity market

Online market places aggregating supply demand matching service Adequate IPR frameworks Increasing competitive advantage for TEPL over traditional modes of training (price) Tax breaks and other incentives that will boost the take-up of TEPL in SMEs will be implemented New types for learning providers based on web2.0 applications and integration at professional workplace Social networks and other communicative technologies allow the collaboration to be effective Widely adopted collaborative systems (tools) that enhance collaboration Learning applications will achieve the level of quality commonly experienced in entertainment industry products Rapid design and development of high quality multimedia content Open content exchange

¾to develop the high and upscale, high value added market ¾to enhance market take up of elearning ¾to develop the ability to purchase content and learning services regardless of type and country of the learner supplier in unified transparent market ¾to reach the target of 50% of SMEs actively using TEPL in Europe ¾communities of practice and collaborative creating and sharing of professional know-how will represent an evolving market (50% of SMEs participating in these activities)

Standards will contribute to market transparency Professional associations as facilitators of communities of practice Technology platforms for learning will follow the general converging platforms trend Professional learning scenarios and business models for further development of new research topics

¾to have courses for the individuals at the price of two DVDs ¾to increase transparency of the TEPL market in order to result in less fragmented TEPL market as a whole

16

Goals 6

Vision 6

Bridging the “knowledge divide”

Ubiquitous access to multiple channels Active participation of individuals instead of passive waiting and receiving Healthy market: transparency (price, offer, etc. comparison Diversity of offers SEM support Free access to basic resources that are of interest Examples of benefits of Professional learning Inter-organizational learning applied to SMEs context (peer learning, Learning Communities Thematic benchmarking of clusters of enterprises Policy incentives for SMEs to federate Lessons learned from CRM market Support the breaking of glass ceilings (when desired learning is uncommon because of the age, ethical background, sex, etc. of the learner Access to information and insight to it Bridging the knowledge divide TEPL supporting affirmative actions IPR licensing, open source issues

Outcome 6

“Access to professional learning for all – extending the knowledge based society” ¾Goals ¾ to promote e-inclusion and equal opportunities for all ¾To provide the needed support for SMEs to ease the first steps in the acquisition of professional leaning ¾To provide ubiquitous access to multiple channels to information and the knowledge needed to filter, understand and use the information

The role of intermediary organizations in knowledge transfer New accreditation structures for skills and knowledge Linguistic adaptation and localization of information resources

PLANNED ACTIVITIES • Vision statements – wiki • Large Online Survey on TRENDS affecting TEPL • Industry interviews based on vision statements • Finalization of Future state • Framework for Gap Analysis Workshop • Start Gap Analysis

17

performance Support

V2

APOSDLE (consolidate knowledge work processes/ combine knowledge and work processes and TEPL)

Promote innovation, creativity

V3

Increase employability

V4

Market take up

PROLIX (Linking business processes with learning processes to enhance performance at the workplace)

PRO -LC

Cooper (individual competency building in virtual teams)

TENCompetence (lifelong learning competency development of individuals groups and organizations) V5

iCamp (collaboration social networking communities of practice)

e-inclusion V6

EduXchange (new models for University to Companies Collaboration)

Publications Revised Methodology – Roadmapping processes – scenario results

‰ 8th IFIP World Conference on Computers in Education (south Africa), conference (IFIP) in the session on "Professional development and vocational education" , 4-7 July 2005: Vana Kamtsiou, Lampros Stergioulas, Tapio Koskinen, "A Roadmapping framewrok for Technology Enhanced Professional Training“ Scenario analysis results and survey on TRENDS affecting TEPL

‰ WEBIST 2006 Conference , Mohamed Amine Chatti, Ralf Klamma, Matthias Jarke, Ambjorn Naeve, Milos Kravcik, Dimitra Pappa, Vana kamtsiou, "Technology Enhanced Professional Learning:Processes, Challenges and Requirements" Symposium results and vision statements

‰ ICALT conference 2006, “Future Visions of Technology-Enhanced Professional Learning”, Kamtsiou, V., Naeve, A., Stergioulas, L. K. and Pappa, D.

18

Are those visions worth trying for? Will those visions be realised?

• Too early to tell!...

19