modelo climático regional (RCM) del Centro Hadley del Reino Unido, para aportar ... CMIP3 y el RCM captan satisfactoriamente las peculiaridades de la circulación atmosférica de gran escala ... Similarly, the agricultural sector, which contributes .... sea level rise in the Caribbean under either a 2.0 or 2.5 ºC global warming ...
Atmósfera 26(2), 283-309 (2013)
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A. V. Karmalkar et al.
Latitude (ºN)
Latitude (ºN)
Latitude (ºN)
Latitude (ºN)
294
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 J 0 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 J 0 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 J 0 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 J
CMIP3 20C PRCP (70W−80W)
(a)
18
(b)
CMIP3 20C PRCP (58W−68W)
17 16 15 14 13 F 0.6
M
A
1.2
M
1.8
J J [mm/day]
2.4
3
A
3.6
S
O
N
4.2
4.8
5.4
D
J 0
6
(c)
RCM−H 20C PRCP (70W−80W)
12
F 0.6
M
A
1.2
18
M
1.8
J J [mm/day]
2.4
3
A
3.6
S
O
N
4.2
4.8
5.4
RCM−H 20C PRCP (58W−68W)
(d)
A
D 6
17 16 15 14 13 F 0.6
M
A
1.2
M
1.8
J J [mm/day]
2.4
3
A
3.6
S
O
N
4.2
4.8
5.4
RCM−E 20C PRCP (70W−80W)
D
12
6
J 0
F 0.6
M 1.2
18
(e)
M
1.8
J J [mm/day]
2.4
3
A
3.6
S
O
N
4.2
4.8
5.4
RCM−E 20C PRCP (58W−68W)
D 6
(f)
17 16 15 14 13 F 0.6
M 1.2
A
M
1.8
J J [mm/day]
2.4
3
A
3.6
S
O
N
4.2
4.8
5.4
CMIP3 20C SST (70W−80W)
D
12
6
J 0
F 0.6
M 1.2
18
(g)
A
M
1.8
J J [mm/day]
2.4
3
A
3.6
S
O
N
4.2
4.8
5.4
CMIP3 20C SST (58W−68W)
D 6
(h)
17 16 15 14 13 F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
12
J
F
M
A
M
[ºC] 24 24.5
25 25.5
26 26.5
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
[ºC] 27 27.5
28 28.5
29
24 24.5
25 25.5
26 26.5
27 27.5
28 28.5
29
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Latitude (ºN)
Caribbean climate change
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17
(a)
CMIP3 PRCP Bias (70W−80W)
17 16 15 14 13 J
F
M
A
M
J J [mm]
A
S
O
N
D
Latitude (ºN) Latitude (ºN) Latitude (ºN)
F
M
A
M
J J [mm]
A
S
O
N
D
−2.75 −2.25 −1.75 −1.25 −0.75 −0.25 0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75
(d)
17 16 15 14 13 J
F
M
A
M
J J [mm]
A
S
O
N
D
(e)
RCM−E PRCP Bias (70W−80W)
12 J
F
M
A
M
J J [mm]
A
S
O
N
D
−2.75 −2.25 −1.75 −1.25 −0.75 −0.25 0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75
18
(f)
RCM−E PRCP Bias (58W−68W)
17 16 15 14 13 J
F
M
A
M
J J [mm]
A
S
O
N
D
−3.41 −2.79 −2.17 −1.55 −0.93 −0.31 0.31 0.93 1.55 2.17 2.79 3.41
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17
12 J
18 RCM−H PRCP Bias (58W−68W)
(c)
RCM−H PRCP Bias (70W−80W)
−2.75 −2.25 −1.75 −1.25 −0.75 −0.25 0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17
(b)
18 CMIP3 PRCP Bias (58W−68W)
−2.75 −2.25 −1.75 −1.25 −0.75 −0.25 0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17
295
F
M
A
M
J J [mm]
A
S
O
N
D
−3.41 −2.79 −2.17 −1.55 −0.93 −0.31 0.31 0.93 1.55 2.17 2.79 3.41
18
(g)
CMIP3 SST Bias (70W−80W)
12 J
(h)
CMIP3 SST Bias (58W−68W)
17 16 15 14 13 J
F
M
A
M
J
J [ºC]
A
S
O
N
D
−1.65 −1.35 −1.05 −0.75 −0.45 −0.15 0.15 0.45 0.75 1.05 1.35 1.65
12 J
F
M
A
M
J
[ºC]
J
A
S
O
N
D
−1.65 −1.35 −1.05 −0.75 −0.45 −0.15 0.15 0.45 0.75 1.05 1.35 1.65
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296
(a)
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mm/day
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1014
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1013
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7
8 NCEP 20C CMIP3 20C CMIP3 A2
5 4
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m/s
6
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D
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D
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297
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[2080−89(SRES A2) − 1970−89], PRCP (%), MJJ 43
19
−22
−21
−66
−73
−73
−67
−66
−9
−11
−25
20ºC
−34
−27
−85
−87
−88
−36
12ºC
12
−93
−83
−14
−13
−66
84ºC
32
8
−30
13
−18
−69
−16
−66
[%]
−65
−50
60ºC
−15
−1
39
37
−3 −50
−51
−48
20
−16
−17
−58
−28
−9
−71 23
−6
−75
−80
20
−8 −58
84ºC
−73
31
25
−1 −45
78ºC
−3 −51
2
72ºC
−22 −70
1
−82 11
−28 −82
66ºC
−39 −83
−30 −73
−20
−56 6
−22
−40
−50 33
−59
−30 13
−20
−65 7
−67 6
−21
−20
−20
−66 5
−34
−82 23
−14 −57
1
43
−13
−68
−10
−71 33
−19
−76
−40
−68 29
−24
−76
−35
−61
29
−1 −42
10
−30
−60
36
−7 −50
12
−29
−26
−70
−15
−74 21
0 43
−16
−75 16
−69 41
−16
−76 12
−27
−71
14
−27
−82
19
−3
24
−25
−76 0
−25
−78
−14
−13
−64 37
10
19
−14
−67 36
−17
−78 −1
−19
−77
24
−9
−1
−19
−76
21
−16
−62
−18
−69
−22
−82
3
−69 32
−43 22
−20
20
−9
−47 25
−13
−72 23
−26
−79
5
17
−22
−72
11
−14
−66
−18
−65
21
−75
13
30
−18
8
−13
−53
30
−30 13
−19
−56 29
−24
−81
9
−15
−59
20
−77
12
22
−22
−11
−59
−11
−38 11
40
13
−9
−43 9
−12
−64 23
−13
−62
13
−13
−66
−54
19
28
−8
−45 6
−13
−77
26
−10
−46 13
−8
−73
26
−8
−3
−54
30
−6
21
−29 17
−10
50
−7
−28 16
−11
44
−6
−29 12
−8
−49
29
−5
−51
−52
38
−7
−35
−49
41
−6
−25
−36
32
−4
−35
−24
32
12
−4
45
−4
−29
17
−3
44
−2
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25
0
44
−2
−27
31
1
42
1
−25
32
−1
35
4
−22
29
−2
−19 32
−54
3
−26
−69
66ºC
36
4
−14
22
0
38
2
−8
25
0
26
0
−13
22
8ºC
−28
−69
72ºC
16
6
−21
12ºC
22
6
−22
16ºC
−25
−65
−40
−71
1
[2080−89(SRES A2) − 1970−89], PRCP (%), ASON 28
20ºC
−24
−58
−20
−73
2
−30
26
−20
−76
5
18
−26
−81
9
−21
−45
−76
17
−18
−41
78ºC
(b)
24ºC
−14
−44
−66
17
−75
6
−29
−20
−24
−77
−7
−31
9
−26
−78
−5
−32
−75
17
−8
−58
−74
16
−5
−30
7
−30
−79
−10
−79
5
−28
−78
−6
−32
−79
19
−4
−30
−85
24
−18 −70
−30
−29
−73
12
−17
−77
5
0
3
−23
−76
−5
−26
−75
−2
11
−25
−82 19
8ºC
8
−23
−31
−75
−78
−8
−86
−2
−23
10
−18
−84
−3
−26
−78
−9
−38
−89
−4
−32
−80
−4
−36
−88
11
−37
−30
−83
−85
11
−6
−36
3
−21
−80
20
−78 −4
−22
−71
−18
−77 −7
−24
−70
−15
−40
−87
21
−27
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25
−21
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−33
−75
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−27
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30
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−30
−67 −10
−42
−85
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−45
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0
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−15
−37
−41
−85
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−63
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−17
−66
2
−33
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−48
−81
−8
−30
0
−37
−76
−3
−32
−86
−39
−78
−5
−45
16ºC
−33
−75
−80 −21
9
−37
4
−22
−62
50
−60 7
−24
−59
2
−33
−76 −22
−57
1
−33
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−57
6
−37
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−63
−5
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−74 −6
−60
−9
−30
−68 −10
−64
−5
−26
−82
−70
−18
−57 8
−24
17
−21
−50 11
−24
31
−20
−50 20
−24
44
−20
−55 22
−25
46
−19
−56 18
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34
−18
−60 12
−34
31
−21
−61 3
−32
26
−24
−69 3
−30
12
−25
−76 3
−28
9
−30
−81 1
−22
13
−29
23
24ºC
16
35
−18 −48
[%]
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60ºC
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Latitude (ºN)
Caribbean climate change
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 J
15 14 13 F
M
A
M
Latitude (ºN) Latitude (ºN) Latitude (ºN)
1
J
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A
S
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35
45
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PRCP Projections RCM−H (70W−80W)
18
(c)
F
M
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M
J
J [%]
−5
5
A
S
O
N
D
15
25
35
45
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PRCP Projections RCM−H (58W−68W)
(d)
17 16 15 14 13 F
M
A
M
J
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−6
6
A
S
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N
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12 J
18
30
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54
66
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(e)
PRCP Projections RCM−E (70W−80W)
18
F
M
A
M
J
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−6
6
A
S
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N
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18
30
42
54
66
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PRCP Projections RCM−E (58W−68W)
17 16 15 14 13 F
M
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M
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(b)
CMIP3 PRCP Projections (58W−68W)
16
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18 17
−55 −45 −35 −25 −15 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 J
(a)
CMIP3 PRCP Projections (70W−80W)
299
J
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6
A
S
O
N
D
12 J
18
30
42
54
66
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M
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M
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18
30
42
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66
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18
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Caribbean climate change
[2080−89(SRES A2) − 1970−89], SAT (ºC), ANN
(a) 3.2
3.5
2.9
3
3
2.7 2.2
2.9
2.6
2.1
3.3
3.1 3.5
4.1
2.9
4.2
3.1 2.2
84º W
4.8
3.1 2.3
5.5
4 2.4
84º W
5.5
4.2 2.4
4.2 2.5
4.1
84º W
84º W
[2080−89(SRES A2) − 1970−89], RCM−H SAT (ºC), ANN
(b)
20º N 16º N 12º N 8º N 84º W
78º W
72º W
66º W
60º W
3.7
3.2 2.4
3.3
2.9 2.1
2.7 2.1
2 [ºC]
60º W
[2080−89(SRES A2) − 1970−89], RCM−E SAT (ºC), ANN
(c)
6
24º N
2.5
1.8
4.7
3.6
2.6
2.25
2.6
1.7
5.2
2.5 3.2
2.6
1.8
5.3
2.4 1.6 3.3
2.8
1.6
3.2
2.5 1.6 3.8
2.9
1.9
2.75
1.5 3.1
2.4 1.6 4.1
2.9
2.1
5.5
3.3 2.4
3
2.1
2.5 1.6 4.2
3 2.4
1.6 3.1
3.25
3.1
2.4
1.6 3.1
2.5 1.6 4.2
3.2
2
3.8
3.1 2.3
3.2
1.8
2.5 1.6 4
1.7 3.1
2.4
1.7 3.1
3.1
2.4
1.7 3.1
2.4
1.8 3.1
2.6 1.5 3.7
2.9
1.6
2.5
1.8 3.1
2.5 1.6 3.5
2.8
1.7
1.9 3.1
2.5 1.6 3.2
2.9
1.9
2
2.5 1.6 3.2
2.5
1.9 3
2.4
1.8 3
3.5
2.4
1.9 3
2.5
1.8 3
3
2.4
1.9 3
2.5
1.8 3.1
2.5
1.9 3.1
1.9 3
2.5
1.9 3.1
2.5
1.9 3.1
2.6 1.7 4.1
2.1 3.1
2.5
2 3.2
2.9 2 4.4
2.1
2.5
1.9 4.3
3.5 2.4
12º N
8º N
2.6
1.9 5
2 3.1
1.9 3
2.5
2.9
2.4
3.75
2.6 2
2.9
2.5
3.1
2.6 2
3
2.5
2.1 3.1
2.8
2.6
4
2.1 3
2.1
3
2.7
2.1 3.3
2.7
2 3.1
2.9
2.7
2.1 3.2
2.8
2 3.1
3.4
2.6
2.2 3
2.7
2 3.8
3.7
2.8
2.2 3.1
2.7
2 4.2
4
2.9
2.2 3
2.7
2
4.1
2.9
2.1 2.9
2.7
16º N
3.5
2.8
2.7
2.1 3
2.6 2.1
3.3
2.7
2.1 3
2.7 2.1
3.3
2.8
2.1 2.9
2.7 2.1
3.2
2.8
2.2 2.9
2.7 2.1
3.1
2.8
2.2 2.9
2.6 2
3
2.8
2.2 2.9
2.7 2.1
3.1
2.7
2.1 3.4
2.7 2.2
3.1
2.7
2 4
2.9 2.2
3
2.7
2.1 3.6
2.8 2.1
3.1
2.8
2.2 3.2
2.8 2.1
3.2
3.1
2.2 3
20º N
3.6
2.9
2.1
24º N
301
6
5.5 24º N
5.5
5
5
4.5 20º N
4.5
4
4
3.5 16º N
3.5
3
3
2.5 12º N
2.5
2 [ºC]
8º N 84º W
78º W
72º W
66º W
60º W
2 [ºC]
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