australian commodities

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a federal government deficit of around DS$163 billion in DS financial year. 2006 07 ..... motive fuel, domestic holiday travel and accommodation, and deposit and loan facilities. ...... jharkhand. 4 000
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contents

economic overview outlook for australia’s commodity sector

australian agriculture – opportunities and challenges in the medium term

5 21 25

commodity outlook grains – wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds sugar wine grapes and wine wool cotton meat – beef and veal, sheep meat, pig meat, poultry dairy fish and seafood

energy and minerals – key isues for the medium term energy oil and gas thermal coal uranium

metals steel and steel making raw materials gold aluminium and alumina nickel copper zinc

30 49 56

64 70

76 88 99

112 118 118 132 140 148 148 161 167 174 182 189

articles global integrated assessment model – a new analytical tool to assess climate change risks and policies

195

abare: don.gunasekera, melanie.ford, edwina.heyhoe, andrew.gurney, helal.ahammad csiro: steven phipps, ian harman, john finnegan, markus brede

agricultural trade – the changing environment for trade policy and agricultural prices

217

ivan.roberts, phantipa.puangsumalee and jammie.penm

productivity growth australian broadacre and dairy industries

236

shiji.zhao, katarina.nossal, phil.kokic and lisa.elliston

farm financial performance – australian farm income and drought recovery, 2005-06, 2006-07 and 2007-08

243

stephen.hooper, dale.ashton, sarah.crooks, daniel.mackinnon, panos.nicols and paul.phillips

murray darling basin economic implications of water scarcity

265

tim.goesch, simon.hone, ahmed.hafi, sally.thorpe, kenton.lawson, sharon.page, neal.hughes and peter.gooday

statisical tables abare contacts australian commodities • vol 15 no. 1 • march quarter 3

283 320

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unit

2005 -06

2006 -07

2007 -08 s

2008 -09 f

2009 -10 f

2010 -11 f

index index index index index index index index index index

86.3 91.3 88.6 93.7 98.8 104.5 81.5 86.2 88.4 93.6

90.7 93.2 97.0 99.7 90.1 92.6 101.6 104.4 96.0 98.7

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

101.7 99.0 123.9 120.5 144.1 140.2 110.9 107.9 119.9 116.7

102.1 97.0 118.3 112.3 137.6 130.7 105.9 100.6 115.5 109.7

103.3 95.7 107.4 99.5 128.4 118.9 94.1 87.1 107.0 99.1

a Base: 2007-08 = 100. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast. Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARE.

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2012 -13 f 103.6 91.4 97.3 85.8 115.3 101.7 85.9 75.7 98.9 87.2

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2005 -06

2006 -07

2007 -08 s

2008 -09 f

2009 -10 f

2010 -11 f

2011 -12 f

2012 -13 f

US$/A$

0.75

0.78

0.87

0.83

0.80

0.78

0.77

0.76

farm – real a crops – real a

A$m A$m

27 807 29 418

27 795 28 572

26 651 26 651

31 448 30 607

35 079 33 307

37 598 34 829

39 457 35 659

40 467 35 680

A$m A$m

livestock – real a

A$m A$m

13 968 14 778 13 838 14 640

12 976 13 338 14 819 15 233

11 542 11 542 15 109 15 109

16 055 15 626 15 393 14 981

18 969 18 011 16 109 15 296

20 749 19 221 16 849 15 608

22 212 20 074 17 245 15 585

23 325 20 566 17 143 15 115

forest and fisheries products – real a

A$m A$m

3 687 3 900

3 846 3 954

3 926 3 926

4 193 4 080

4 429 4 206

4 677 4 332

5 088 4 599

5 454 4 809

mineral resources – real a energy minerals – real a

A$m A$m

92 438 97 793

107 928 110 944

115 065 115 065

153 448 149 342

157 882 149 909

151 490 140 332

151 878 137 259

153 676 135 497

A$m A$m

39 328 41 606

39 427 40 529

43 427 43 427

66 782 64 995

68 332 64 881

66 392 61 501

67 974 61 431

67 650 59 648

metals and other minerals – real a total commodities – real a

A$m A$m A$m A$m

53 110 56 186 123 931 131 111

68 502 70 415 139 570 143 469

71 638 71 638 145 642 145 642

86 666 84 347 189 090 184 029

89 551 85 028 197 390 187 422

85 098 78 830 193 765 179 493

83 904 75 828 196 423 177 517

86 025 75 849 199 598 175 986

farmers’ terms of trade a gross value of farm prodn b – real a

index A$m A$m

93.6 38 430 40 657

95.7 34 649 35 617

100.0 39 530 39 530

100.9 46 650 45 402

101.4 48 263 45 825

103.2 50 531 46 809

103.2 51 953 46 952

102.4 53 011 46 740

crops – real a livestock – real a net value of farm production – real a

A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m

20 628 21 823 17 802 18 834

16 418 16 877 18 231 18 740

20 226 20 226 19 304 19 304

25 775 25 085 20 875 20 316

27 121 25 751 21 142 20 075

28 699 26 585 21 832 20 224

29 732 26 870 22 221 20 082

30 727 27 092 22 284 19 648

7 291 7 714

3 406 3 501

5 135 5 135

10 309 10 034

10 941 10 389

11 917 11 039

14 490 13 095

14 293 12 603

volume of farm production a – crops – livestock

index index index

120.9 144.9 101.9

99.5 94.2 104.4

100.0 100.0 100.0

114.5 130.6 99.6

115.8 130.1 102.5

115.6 126.5 105.8

115.9 123.6 109.5

115.5 120.8 111.9

index index index A$m A$m

97.1 97.3 97.1

99.8 103.4 97.4

100.0 100.0 100.0

110.9 107.3 114.6

117.4 109.3 128.5

122.7 113.8 134.8

128.3 120.6 138.7

131.8 124.0 142.5

88 740 93 881

103 611 106 506

110 462 110 462

147 311 143 368

151 567 143 913

145 431 134 718

145 803 131 769

147 529 130 077

commodity exports exchange rate

value of exports

farm sector

minerals and energy sector volume of mine production a – energy – metals and other minerals gross value of mine prodn – real a

a In 2007-08 Australian dollars. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see table 21. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast. Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating farm price and production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fishers' ideal index with a reference year of 1997-98 = 100. Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARE.

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2006 -07

2007 -08 f

2008 -09 z

2009 -10 z

2010 -11 z

2011 -12 z

2012 -13 z

million ha t/ha Mt Mt Mt Mt % %

216 2.87 620 624 136 110 21.8 17.6

208 2.84 591 609 117 111 19.2 18.2

215 2.81 603 611 110 104 18.0 17.0

223 2.79 622 616 115 108 18.7 17.6

218 2.84 619 623 111 112 17.9 18.0

217 2.90 630 630 112 113 17.7 18.0

218 2.97 645 643 114 116 17.7 18.0

218 3.03 659 655 118 118 18.0 18.0

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176 186

212 218

339 339

288 282

295 282

301 281

307 281

310 277

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12 456 2.02 25 173 15 168

11 624 0.92 10 641 11 196

12 257 1.07 13 093 6 411

13 437 1.93 25 953 15 391

13 320 1.96 26 172 18 659

13 292 2.00 26 555 19 508

13 271 2.03 26 988 20 783

13 296 2.06 27 369 21 425

A$m A$m

3 296 3 486

2 765 2 843

2 143 2 143

4 734 4 607

6 125 5 815

6 709 6 215

7 400 6 688

7 815 6 890

A$/t A$/t

192 203

240 246

440 440

359 350

365 346

375 348

387 350

396 349

world area yield production consumption closing stocks trade stocks to use ratio trade to use ratio price a – nominal – real b

australia area yield production export volume export value – nominal – real c apw 10 net pool return d – nominal – real c

a US hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June. b In 2007-08 US dollars. c In 2007-08 Australian dollars. d Australian premium white wheat, 10 per cent protein. f ABARE forecast. z ABARE projection. Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Council; US Department of Agriculture; ABARE.

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2006 -07

2007 -08 f

2008 -09 z

2009 -10 z

2010 -11 z

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2012 -13 z

864 888 544 86 100 4.21

970 970 616 85 94 4.23

960 934 614 87 94 4.30

930 883 605 90 95 4.40

920 852 598 92 98 4.45

900 813 585 94 100 4.50

880 776 572 96 102 4.50

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426 51 477

395 42 437

404 43 447

418 45 463

434 47 481

450 48 498

459 49 509

543 2 544 2 691

566 3 065 3 151

437 2 647 2 647

447 2 541 2 473

463 2 535 2 407

481 2 517 2 332

498 2 541 2 297

509 2 591 2 284

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unit

2005 -06

2006 -07

2007 -08 f

2008 -09 z

2009 -10 z

2010 -11 z

2011 -12 z

Ac/kg Ac/kg million million ’000 kt

322 341 28.5 25.7 8 401 2 077

292 300 28.2 25.6 9 081 2 226

294 294 28.2 25.7 8 800 2 138

315 307 28.6 26.0 8 600 2 098

295 280 29.1 26.3 8 750 2 144

285 264 29.4 26.5 8 900 2 181

278 251 29.6 26.6 9 150 2 251

270 238 29.5 26.4 9 300 2 297

kg

35.4

36.3

36.3

36.5

36.8

37.5

37.6

37.9

Ac/kg Ac/kg kt kt kt kt

1 540 1 629 892 295 388 121

1 538 1 581 974 303 403 157

1 550 1 550 915 280 360 135

1 560 1 518 880 280 340 110

1 560 1 481 900 300 310 100

1 565 1 450 930 320 300 95

1 570 1 419 950 340 330 90

1 575 1 389 960 350 340 90

A$m A$m ’000

4 272 4 519 549

4 634 4 763 638

4 170 4 170 680

4 300 4 185 700

4 120 3 912 720

4 110 3 807 750

4 100 3 705 770

4 060 3 580 780

a Dressed weight equivalent. b In 2007-08 Australian dollars. c At 30 June. d Fresh, chilled and frozen, shipped weight. f ABARE forecast. z ABARE projection. Sources: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestries; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARE.

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2005 -06

2006 -07

saleyard price for sheep – nominal – real a

Ac/kg Ac/kg

175 185

saleyard price for lambs – nominal – real a

Ac/kg Ac/kg

retail price for lamb – nominal – real a sheep numbers b slaughterings sheep lamb production c mutton lamb consumption per person mutton lamb exports mutton exports d lamb exports d – to united states lamb export value d – nominal – real a live sheep exports

2007 -08 f

2008 -09 z

2009 -10 z

2010 -11 z

2011 -12 z

2012 -13 z

136 140

165 165

180 175

176 167

172 159

168 152

165 145

347 367

326 335

332 332

355 345

345 328

330 306

315 285

300 265

Ac/kg Ac/kg

1 216 1 286

1 220 1 254

1 230 1 230

1 260 1 226

1 270 1 206

1 280 1 186

1 290 1 166

1 300 1 146

million

91

86

85

87

90

92

94

96

’000 ’000

11 830 18 666

13 271 20 158

10 200 19 500

8 500 19 800

9 000 20 100

9 400 20 400

9 700 20 700

10 000 21 000

kt kt

244 382

271 413

215 404

180 412

190 420

198 426

205 434

210 440

kg kg

2.6 10.1

2.5 10.9

2.3 10.0

2.2 10.1

2.2 10.2

2.2 10.2

2.1 10.4

2.1 10.5

kt kt kt

145 143 39

162 150 41

142 160 44

108 163 46

114 167 48

120 170 50

126 172 51

130 175 52

$m $m ’000

767 812 4 248

748 769 4 138

830 830 3 750

900 876 3 700

905 859 3 800

910 843 4 000

890 804 4 100

875 772 4 200

a In 2007-08 Australian dollars. b At 30 June. c Carcass weight. d Fresh, chilled and frozen, shipped weight. f ABARE forecast. z ABARE projection. Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; ABARE.

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