Availibility of renewable energy sources in Turkey ...

Energy Policy 42 (2012) 377–391

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Availibility of renewable energy sources in Turkey: Current situation, potential, government policies and the EU perspective Kemal Baris a,n, Serhat Kucukali b a b

Department of Mining and Mineral Extraction, Zonguldak Vocational School, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Kilimli 67500, Zonguldak, Turkey Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Eskisehir Yolu 29. Km, Yukariyurtcu 06810, Ankara, Turkey

a r t i c l e i n f o

abstract

Article history: Received 19 April 2010 Accepted 3 December 2011 Available online 13 January 2012

This study aims to explore the availability and potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey as well as assessing related government policies, financial and environmental aspects of renewable energy projects. Turkey is a country which has the highest hydropower, wind and geothermal energy potential among European countries. As a European Union (EU) candidate several incentives were developed in Turkey for electricity generation from renewable energy sources by the enactment of Law No. 5346 in 2005 which was later restructured by Law No. 6094 in 2010. The most important ones are: ease of land acquisition and feed-in-tariffs which promise purchasing of electricity generated and domestic manufacturing of equipment by the private companies with a price of 5.30–9.69 and 0.3–2.55 hc/kWh, respectively, depending on the type of the renewable and the equipment. However, feed-in tariff amounts take reservoir area into account instead of installed capacity for hydroelectric power plants. Moreover, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report is not mandatory for all renewable energy plants. According to the multi-criteria analysis tool developed in this study to evaluate the renewable energy source (RES) technologies the most appropriate renewable energy alternative for Turkey is biomass, simply because of the highest social benefit among others. & 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Renewable energy EU policy Turkey

1. Introduction Rapid increase of population and industrialization in the 20th century resulted in a huge energy demand across the world. According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 49% from 2007 to 2035 in International Energy Outlook 2010 reference case (EIA, 2010). Energy is the most important input of economic sustainability but it is not possible to provide sustainable development without protecting the environment and taking economic conditions into account (Fig. 1). Energy is considered to be a significant factor in economic development and prime agent in generation of wealth. Much of the world’s energy, however, is currently produced and consumed in ways that could not be sustained if technology were to remain constant and if overall consumption were to increase substantially. Electricity supply infrastructures in many developing countries are being rapidly expanded as policy-makers and investors around the world increasingly recognize the pivotal role of electricity in improving living standards and sustaining economic growth (Field and Raupach, 2004). The renewable energy sources

n

Corresponding author. Tel.: þ90 372 257 40 10x1525. E-mail address: [email protected] (K. Baris).

0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.002

have become more important than ever due to the increase in oil and natural gas prices by 500% in the last 15 years and corresponding political situation of the world. Nowadays, new energy investments are directed towards clean energy. Accordingly, the EU has adopted an energy policy aiming to maximize the use of renewable energy sources to reduce the dependence on fuel from non-member countries, to minimize emissions from carbon sources, and to decouple energy costs from oil prices. Furthermore, the Union’s policy targets to constrain the demand by promoting energy efficiency both within the energy sector itself and at end-use (COM, 2008, 781). Energy (E) is one of Turkey’s most important development priorities. Hence, utilization of indigenous renewable energy sources is of vital importance for Turkey to reduce its dependence on foreign energy supplies, provide supply security and prevent the increase in greenhouse gas emission. Turkey’s energy policy targets to increase the current share of renewable energy from 20% to 30% in coming years. Turkey has a quite diverse energy resources, including hard coal, lignite, oil, hydropower, natural gas, geothermal, wood, animal and plant wastes and solar. However, utilization of these resources is not at desired levels to meet the demand of the country. The energy demand of Turkey has been growing more rapidly than the energy production since it is a socially and economically developing country (Fig. 2).

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K. Baris, S. Kucukali / Energy Policy 42 (2012) 377–391

Kaya (2006) and Balat (2008) investigated the renewable energy policies and the political organizations that shaped these policies in Turkey. Erdem (2010) has reported a detailed literature review about the renewable energy studies in Turkey and she discussed the policy and legal aspects of renewable energy in Turkey. Evrendilek and Ertekin (2003) estimated that Turkey’s economically feasible renewable energy potential exceeded 495 TWh/year in total, with a potential of 196.7 TWh/year of biomass energy, 125 TWh/year of hydropower, 102.3 TWh/year of solar energy, 50 TWh/year of wind energy and 22.4 TWh/year of geothermal energy. Insufficient government efforts toward energy policy have forced Turkey to increase its dependence on foreign energy supplies. Instead of sufficiently promoting the usage of indigenous energy resources and taking the necessary precautions, governments have relied highly on foreign energy supplies. Thus, the share of natural gas by the year 2005 as a thermal power plant fuel reached to 60% though Turkey has insufficient natural gas reserves (EUAS, 2008). Moreover, as stated in 8th and 9th Development Plans of Turkey, utilization of coal, the country’s most abundant fossil fuel source, in electricity production has also been promoted. In accordance with the increasing share of fossil fuels, the share of hydropower in total electricity production in Turkey has had a decreasing trend while that of thermal power plants had an increasing trend, as seen in Fig. 3, although its utilization to produce electricity has been promoted over the last decades. Fig. 4 shows the variation in the consumption of

Economy

2. Current energy trends and economic profile of Turkey In Turkey, the public sector monopoly was ended in 1982 and the private sector was allowed to build power plants and sell the electricity generated to Turkish Electricity Administration. The first law (Law No. 3096) that formed the framework for the participation of private sector in electricity industry was enacted in 1984. This law constituted the legal basis for private entrepreneurs to build new generation plants by means of build-operate-transfer (BOT) contracts. The law on Building and Operating of Electricity Generation Plants by BOT Model and Regulation of Energy Marketing (Law No. 4283) enacted in 1997 and provided the participation of private sector in building and operating of energy plants. Turkey has become one of the biggest economies around Europe and in the world over the last 30 years with rapid increase in its population and industrialization. According to According to OECD, Turkey was the 11th largest economy of the world with a gross domestic product (GDP) of 960.1 billion USD in 2007 (OECD, 2009).

Environment Sustainable Development

Energy

Fig. 1. Three main elements of sustainable development.

Total Energy Production and Consumption (mtoe)

renewable energy sources and the share of renewable energy in primary energy consumption between 1970 and 2006 in Turkey. As seen in the figure the share of renewable energy in primary energy consumption has been continuously declining. Although the government has tried to promote the utilization of indigenous energy sources this effort has not been adequate to meet the demand of the country mostly because of the lack of oil and natural gas reserves of the country. As a result, Turkey has inevitably become a net energy importing country even though total installed capacity has increased from 2234 to 41,744 MW between 1970 and 2008 (EUAS, 2008). It was reported that 74% of Turkey’s total energy demand was met by imported energy in 2007 (EUAS, 2008). This trend is expected to continue in coming years as projected in Fig. 5. More detailed information can be found on the development of Turkish energy sector elsewhere (Erdogdu, 2007). In Turkey, natural gas and electricity prices for residential and industrial use have increased by almost 8 and 7 times, respectively, between 1999 and 2010 (Table 1). Thus, the renewable energy sources have become a challenging alternative to fossil fuels for the country. In this study, current situation of renewable energy sources was investigated in detail and energy policies in Turkey was scrutinized by taking the EU policy into account.

120 Domestic Production 100

Total Consumption

80

60

40

20

0 1970

1974

1978

1982

1986 1990 Years

Fig. 2. Trends in total energy production and consumption of Turkey between 1970 and 2006. Data source: EUAS (2010).

1994

1998

2002

2006


379

Share of Renewables in Primary Energy Consumption (%)

Fig. 3. Share of thermal and hydropower in total electricity production in Turkey between 1923 and 2010. Data source: EUAS (2010).

20000 18000

Consumption (1000 toe)

16000 14000 12000 10000

40 Biomass Hydraulic Wind Geothermal Solar

30 20 10 0 1970

1980

1990 Years

2000

2010

8000 6000 4000 2000

19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06

72 19

19

70

0

Years Fig. 4. Consumption of renewable energy sources and share of renewable energy in primary energy consumption in Turkey 1970 and 2006 (MENR, 2010).

In addition, average annual growth rate of GDP (based on current prices) was 4.3% in the last 20 years (IMF, 2010). According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), Turkey experienced a negative annual growth rate of 3.8% in 2009 as expected in most of the world economies after the global economic crisis began in mid2008. However, this trend is expected to change in 2010 by exhibiting an increase (8.8%) and continue until 2015 with an average annual growth rate of 5.4% (IMF, 2010). Although growth rate of population has been decreasing in Turkey for the last 20 years, Turkish population is still rapidly increasing together with industrialization. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) while annual growth rate

of population was 17.2% in 1986, it became 11.8% in 2007 and the total population of Turkey in that year reached 70.5 million. It is projected that the population of Turkey will reach 76.5 million and 80.2 million in 2015 and 2020, respectively (Turkstat, 2009). Economic growth and increase in population, of course, have brought more energy demand. Annual growth rate and population increase projections show that this trend will continue in coming years (Kucukali and Baris, 2010). Nowadays, the energy demand of Turkey is increasing more than its energy production. The Electricity Production Co. (EUAS), which is a government organization for electricity production in Turkey, has projected that total energy consumption will reach 126.3 mtoe

380


Total Energy Consumption / Production (mtoe)

250 Domestic energy production Total energy consumption

200

150

100

50

0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 Years

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fig. 5. Projections on domestic energy production and total energy consumption of Turkey between 2010 and 2020. Data source: EUAS (2010).

Table 1 Natural gas and electricity price variation in Turkey for residence and industry between 1999 and 2010. Years

1999a 2001a 2003a 2005a 2010b a b

Residence

Industry

Natural gas price

Electricity price

TL/m3

h/m3

TL/kWh

0.07 0.17 0.39 0.41 0.56

0.19 0.27 0.22 0.22 0.26

0.03 0.06 0.16 0.16 0.22

Natural gas price

Electricity price

h/kWh

TL/m3

h/m3

TL/kWh

h/kWh

0.06 0.04 0.09 0.08 0.11

0.05 0.14 0.31 0.35 0.52

0.13 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.25

0.02 0.05 0.13 0.12 0.16

0.05 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.08

Data was taken from Isısan-Buderus (2005). Data was taken from TEDAS (2010).

in 2010 and 222.4 mtoe in 2020 while domestic energy production will be 37.5 and 66.1 mtoe, respectively (EUAS, 2010). The share of electricity within final energy consumption has been increasing in Turkey. In 2007, the gross electricity consumption increased by 7.9% and reached to 184.4 TWh as gross electricity production rose to 191 TWh by a 8.7% increase (TEIAS, 2009a). Guler (2008) reports that Turkey’s electricity demand is projected to be 440.1 and 483.6 TWh according to the low- and high-scenario, respectively, by the year 2020 and to meet the demand current installed capacity (41,744 MW) must be increased to 80,000 MW and 96,000 MW according to the lowand high-scenario, respectively. In this context, power plant investments for a total installed capacity of 12,600 MW have been made in Turkey and they are expected to be completed by the year 2013 (i.e., 1000 MW for wind and other renewables, 8100 MW for hydropower plants and 3500 MW for thermal power plants). The shares of energy sources within the total electricity production in 2009 are presented in Fig. 6.

3. Renewable energy potential of Turkey and current situation Turkey is quite a rich country in terms of renewable energy potential. Turkey has a significant hydropower and wind energy potential with its coasts of over 7200 km and an average elevation of 1132 m (CIA, 2009). Turkey’s wind energy potential is primarily

Fuel-oil 3%

Other Renewables 2%

Coal 28% Natural gas 48% Hydropower 19%

Total: 194.1 TWh/year (2009) Fig. 6. The share of energy sources used for electricity production in 2009 (other renewables: windþ geothermalþ wastes) (TEIAS, 2009).

focused in Aegean, Marmara and Mediterranean regions from higher to lower, respectively. Since Turkey’s geological structure has a volcanic origin, the existence of more than 600 hot water sources whose temperature reach almost 100 1C makes the country very rich in terms of geothermal energy. Moreover, bioenergy has


the ratio of actual operating hour per year to that of total. The projects developed by private sector for this basin account for 20% of the total projects in the country. Renewable Energy Law (Law No.5346) defines a reservoir area less than 15 km2 for hydropower plants and does not have a limit for installed capacity. Even though it accelerated hydropower plant investments to an extent these features specified in Law No.5346 causes private sector to shift their investments from small hydropower plants (SHP) to large hydropower plants. For example, Koprubasi Dam, which is situated on the Western Black Sea Basin, having a height of 108 m, a reservoir area of 5.9 km2 and a 79 MW of installed capacity, lies within the frame of Law No. 5346. However, this creates a conflict between Turkey and the EU policy. In European Union Member States, countries limit the installed capacity and give the sector extra payments if they build SHP plant (Ringel, 2006). For example in Clean Development Mechanism, for hydropower projects above 20 MW, Member States must ensure that relevant international criteria and

an important share among other renewable energy sources. Renewable energy sources used in electricity production were hydropower, wind, geothermal and wastes (biogasþbiomass) in 2009 (Table 2). In this section, renewable energy sources of Turkey and their potentials will be discussed separately as hydropower, wind energy, solar energy and biomass. 3.1. Hydropower Hydropower has the highest share with 93.8% among renewable energy sources in Turkey in terms of installed capacity. Turkey has been divided into 26 river basins (Fig. 7); however, 97% of its economically feasible hydropower potential is distributed into 14 river basins (Table 3) which are mostly situated in the mountainous areas. Euphrates River, with its 127,304 km2 of drainage area and elevation range between 500 and 5000 m, itself is responsible for 30% of the country’s hydropower potential. Turkey’s largest hydropower plants were constructed on the Euphrates River, namely: Ataturk (P¼2400 MW), Karakaya (P¼1800 MW) and Keban (P¼1330 MW). Moreover, the Black Sea region, which has steep and rocky mountains that extend along the coastline, has a considerable hydropower potential. The Eastern Black Sea region is of particular importance in terms of hydropower potential due to its higher capacity factor, which is

Table 3 Economically feasible hydropower potential of Turkey’s major river basins in 2006. River basin

Technical potential (MW)

Economical potential (MW)

Installed capacity (MW)a

Hydropower Wind Geothermal Wastes (biogas þ biomass) Solar

54,000 80,000 1500 –

42,000 20,000 600 –

14,553 802.8 77.2 81.2

56,000

–

1

a

Energy potential (GWh/year)

Euphrates Tigris East Black Sea Coruh Seyhan East Mediterranean Kizilirmak Ceyhan Antalya Yesilirmak West Mediterranean Sakarya West Black Sea Aras Total

Table 2 Potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey and current situation by the end of 2009. Type of energy

Power Potential (MW)

Drainage area (km2)

Runoff (Tm3/year)

37,823 16,562 13,194 10,973 6957 6749 6420 5996 5345 4984 3240

9555 4890 3900 3247 1788 1856 2116 1779 1437 1257 881

120,917 51,489 24,022 19,894 20,731 22,484 78,646 21,222 22,615 36,129 14,518

33.48 21.81 14 6.46 7.06 12.27 6.28 7.21 7.76 5.54 11.24

2585 2149 2692 125,669

1191 642 868 35,407

56,504 29,682 27,548 546,401

6.03 10.04 5.54 155

Data source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR, 2010).

BLACK SEA

N

0

13 1.MERIC

100 km SCALE

13-WEST BLACK SEA

2 13 2 2-MARMARA 2 2 3-SUSURLUK 4-AEGEAN AEGEAN SEA

381

14-YESILIRMAK

22-EAST BLACK SEA

23-CORUH

12-SAKARYA 15-KIZILIRMAK 21-EUPHRATES

5-GEDÝZ

25-VAN LAKE

11-AFYON

4 6-SMALL MENDERES

24-ARAS

7-BIG MENDERES

18-SEYHAN

16-ANATOLIA 10-BURDUR LAKE 9-MIDDLE MEDITERRANEAN 8-WEST 17-EAST MEDITERRANEAN MEDITERRANEAN

20-CEYHAN

19-HATAY

MEDITERRANEAN SEA Fig. 7. River basins of Turkey.

26-TIGRIS

382


guidelines will be respected during the development of such project activity (Branche, 2010). In Turkey, a company that intends to have an SHP license must sign the Water Usage Rights Act with the General Directorate of State Hydropower Works (DSI). In this context, the company must meet the requirements stated in this act. In applications to get an SHP license, river basin plan prepared by DSI is taken into account. In Turkey, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report was not required for hydropower plants with less than 50 MW installed capacity before 17 July 2008. However, a regulation was issued on this date stating that hydropower plants having an installed capacity between 0.5 and 25 MW have to undertake an EIA. However, this regulation did not have an expected effect since many of licenses for hydropower plants were granted before the enactment of this regulation. The impact of SHP plants on natural environment must be closely monitored, and the laws and regulations must be developed by governments to minimize the negative effects. In Turkey, the facility should comply with the requirements of the Water Usage Rights Act signed between the company and the DSI. According to this act, the facility should maintain a minimum flow (also defined as environmental flow) determined by the DSI in the river that is adequate for the existing fish population, wildlife and water quality considering seasonal fluctuations in flow levels. However, there is not a standard for the determination of the environmental flow in Turkey. Thus, this may ruin natural environments in project area where fishes live. Article 169 of the Turkish Constitution states that any action which may harm forest region is not allowed. However, in the case of SHPs built within a forest region, the construction activities along the power transmission lines significantly harm the forest ecosystem and these activities are not audited by any government agents in Turkey. In 2009, no SHP was built within the EU Member States. This was primarily due to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) published in 2000 (2000/60EC). According to this directive, protection of natural life and ecological balance in the management of water resources has become significantly important. After the date the directive was published, SHPs having a total installed capacity of 225 MW have been built between 2000 and 2009 in the EU Member States. On the contrary, the wind and solar energy plants having total installed capacities of 65,102 MW and 13,027 MW, respectively, have been built during the same period. Currently, ecological conditions are taken into account in licensing and crediting SHP projects in the EU Member States and SHPs are built on currently available facilities like drinking water facilities and waste water lines (Kucukali, 2010). However, Turkish hydropower policy is based on developing its all hydropower potential which does not comply with the EU Water Framework Directive. Preserving the ecologically sensitive sites within the country should have been a priority like the examples of other European countries in the context of sustainable development. 3.2. Wind energy Wind energy has shown a rapid development all over the world in recent years. As a result of this development, total installed capacity of the world reached to 120,791 MW in 2008 (GWEC, 2008). It was specified by Turkey Wind Energy Potential Atlas (REPA) published in 2007 that there is 114,173 MW of technical wind energy potential in regions where wind speed is higher than 7.0 m/s at 50 m height (EIE, 2009). 20,000 MW of this potential is regarded as economically feasible (MENR, 2008). Turkey’s wind energy potential is primarily focused in Marmara, Aegean and Mediterranean regions from higher to lower, respectively (Table 4). It should be noted that the raw data was obtained from

Table 4 Technical wind energy potential by regions in Turkey. Data source: EIE (2009). Region

Wind power potential (MW)

Percentage

Marmara Aegean Black Sea Mediterranean Central Anatolia South-eastern Anatolia Eastern Anatolia

43,917 26,150 14,312 11,214 10,904 4703 2974

38.5 22.9 12.5 9.8 9.6 4.1 2.6

EIE for each of the cities located in the region and the potential of the region and the percentages were calculated by the authors accordingly as shown in Table 4. Turkey is divided into 7 regions; however, 61.4% of its wind energy potential is distributed into the Aegean and Marmara coastal areas. Canakkale and Balikesir, cities situated on North Aegean and Marmara coasts, are alone responsible for 23.5% of the country’s wind energy potential (Fig. 8). The Strait of Canakkale that connects Marmara Sea to Aegean Sea has an important role for this wind energy potential. Although Turkey has much higher technical wind power potential than other European countries, only a very small percentage of this potential is used when compared to those countries (Table 5). It can easily be seen that Germany, Spain and Austria lead in the utilization of wind power potential. This is mainly due to the incentive policies that the governments of these countries implement towards promoting the utilization of renewable energy sources. After the enactment of the Renewable Energy Law (Law No. 5346) in Turkey in May 2005, the installed capacity of wind power which was 18 MW by the year 2004 reached to 354.7 MW at the beginning of 2008. A total of 93 wind projects with a total installed capacity of 3363 MW have been licensed after the enactment of the law. Power plants occupying 1100 MW of this installed capacity are still under construction (MENR, 2009). Moreover, EMRA granted a total of 82 wind power plant licenses in 2010 and 2011 having a total installed capacity of 2901 MW. Despite these developments, the exploitation of wind power potential of Turkey is not at the desired level. Thus, the government has been spending intense efforts to improve the current situation. 3.3. Geothermal energy Turkey has a very high geothermal energy potential since it is located along Alpine–Himalayan belt. Total estimated geothermal potential of the country is 31,500 MW. The regions with the highest geothermal energy potential are located within Western Anatolia (77.9%). Up to now, only 13% of the potential has been developed for utilization by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA). A total of 172 regions having geothermal energy potential were determined in Turkey and total installed capacity was stated as 827 MWt (SPO, 2009). The installed capacity currently being used in residential and thermal facility heating is 635 MWt while an installed capacity of 192 MWt is being used for greenhouse heating. Moreover, an installed capacity of 402 MWt is being used for thermal tourism purpose. Hence, the total direct use of geothermal energy in the country is 1229 MWt. Since 2005, the rate of geothermal site exploration of the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) has increased. The number of geothermal fields discovered by MTA increased from 170 in 2005 to 187 in 2008. Five of the newly discovered geothermal sites, which are located in Aegean Region, are feasible for electricity production (Dagistan, 2009).


383

Black Sea Ýstanbul=86 MW Çanakkale =45.3 MW

Marmara Sea Bandýrma=30 MW

Bozcaada= 10.2 MW

Balýkesir=90 MW Manisa=182.2 MW

Ýzmir=42.5 MW Çeþme= 85.4 MW Osmaniye=135 MW Akbük=31.5 MW Datça=28.8 MW

Hatay=87.6 MW 0 Mediterranean Sea

WIND POWER PLANTS (2009) INSTALLED CAPACITY

100 km Scale N

Fig. 8. Distribution of wind power plants in Turkey by 2009. Data source: EMRA (2011).

Table 5 Comparison of wind and hydropower potential of Turkey to some European countries. Country

Area ( 103 km2)

Technical hydropower potential (TWh/year)a

Technical wind power potential (TWh/year)b

Developed hydropower potential by 2006 (%)c

Developed wind power potential by 2006 (%)c

Turkey Norway Sweden France Italy Austria Switzerland Spain Germany UK

781 324 450 547 301 84 41 505 357 244

216 200 100 100 105 75 43 66 25 3

166 76 41 85 69 3 1 24 24 114

20.5 59.7 72.8 56.3 35.2 46.5 71.9 38.8 79.6 153.3

0.1 0.9 2.4 2.5 4.3 57.4 1.5 95.9 128.0 3.7

a b c

Data source: Hydropower & Dams World Atlas (2006). Data source: Erdogdu (2009). Data source: ECD (2009).

As stated in the Ninth Development Plan (2007–2013) of Prime Ministry (Special Expertise Commission on Mining, Energy Raw Materials Sub Commission Report), the planned amount of electricity production from geothermal energy and direct use by the end of 2013 is shown in Table 6. As seen in the table, the total direct use planned for 2013 is significantly high compared to actual values in 2005, indicating that the Turkish government will sustain and increase geothermal energy investments and incentives. 3.4. Solar energy Because of its geographical location Turkey has a higher solar energy potential than most of the other countries. According to the General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (EIE), annual average total insolation duration is 2640 h (7.2 h/day) and annual average solar radiation is 1311 kWh/m2-year (3.6 kWh/m2-day) for the country. The solar

Table 6 Current geothermal use in Turkey and projections. Usage

Capacity (MW) February 2005

Projection for 2013

Electricity generation Residence Heating Thermal Tourism Greenhouse heating Cooling Drying Fisheryþ other usage

20 MWe (94 GWh) 635 MWt 402 MWt 192 MWt – – –

550 MWe (2475 GWh) 4000 MWt 1100 MWt 1700 MWt 300 MWt 500 MWt (500,000 t/year) 400 MWt

Total direct use

1229 MWt

8000 MWt

energy potential of Turkey is calculated as 380 billion kWh/year. Average solar energy potential of Turkey and corresponding insolation durations are given in Table 7 on monthly basis.

384


Fig. 9 clearly reveals that Turkey has a considerable solar power potential among the EU Member States. Solar energy utilization in Turkey is mainly composed of hot water generation systems which turn solar energy into thermal energy and are mostly used in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions. Total installed area of solar collectors is 12,000,000 m2 and annual production capacity is 750,000 m2. Some amount of this production is exported to other countries. Annual thermal energy production from solar energy reached to 420,000 toe by the year 2007 while it was 210,000 toe in 1998. Hence, Turkey is regarded as an important solar collector producer and solar energy user. Besides solar collectors, installed capacity of solar batteries

Table 7 Average solar energy potential of Turkey and insolation durations on monthly basis. Months

Total monthly solar energya

Insolation durationa (h/month)

kcal/cm2-month

kWh/m2-month

January February March April May June July August September October November December Total

4.45 5.44 8.31 10.51 13.23 14.51 15.08 13.62 10.60 7.73 5.23 4.03 112.74

51.75 63.27 96.65 122.23 153.86 168.75 175.38 158.40 123.28 89.90 60.82 46.87 1311

103.0 115.0 165.0 197.0 273.0 325.0 365.0 343.0 280.0 214.0 157.0 103.0 2640

Average

308.0 kcal/cm2-day

3.6 kWh/m2-day

7.2 h/day

a

Data source: EIE (2010).

mostly used by public institutions to meet small power requirements and for research purposes is around 1 MW (EIE, 2010). 3.5. Bioenergy Bioenergy is generally defined as all kinds of fuel whose constituents were obtained from living organisms, 80% of which (by volume) was accumulated in last 10 years. Biodiesel, bioethanol, biogas and biomass are regarded within the context of bioenergy. Renewable energy sources in Turkey are the second largest source behind coal in terms of energy generation, and an important portion of the renewable energy generation is met by biomass (Erdogdu, 2008). The annual biomass potential of Turkey is around 32 Mtoe. The current and projected biomass energy production in Turkey is presented in Table 8. Almost all of biomass energy is consumed in residences mostly for cooking and heating purposes. Wood is the main heating fuel for as much as 6.5 million residences in Turkey. Paper industry also uses wood wastes to provide 60% of energy needed for the factories. Table 8 Current and projected biomass energy production in Turkey. Years

Total biomass production (ktoe)a

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

6982 7260 7414 7320 7520 7810 8205

a

Data source: Erdogdu (2008).

ˇ ´ ri et al., 2007). Fig. 9. Comparison of yearly global irradiation incident on optimally inclined photovoltaic modules in 27 EU member countries and 3 candidate countries (Su


Table 9 Biomass sources and their potentials in Turkey (WEC, 2007). Resource

Current raw material potential (million tons)

Biogas production (TJ)

Municipal Solid Wastes Wood Forestry/wood processing Agricultural residues—straw þstalk Agricultural residues—seed, shells, wood chips Fertilizers

25 3.52 3.56 13.2 4

575

13.8

However, animal wastes are used in limited amount since they are mostly used as fertilizers in agriculture. Table 9 shows the biomass sources of Turkey and corresponding potentials (WEC, 2007). In Turkey, biodiesel is only produced by biodiesel operation license granted by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA). A total of 52 biodiesel production companies have applied for license to EMRA in Turkey. Nevertheless, there is only one bioethanol facility processing mostly oat and it has a total production capacity of 30,000 m3/year.

4. Assessment of renewable energy policies in Turkey under EU policy perspective Renewable energy sources have gained importance in last decades due to growing energy demand. It can clearly be seen that the policies applied by governments towards the utilization of renewable energy sources have a pronounced importance on the promotion of the utilization of these resources. Thus, though their financial and environmental disadvantages, incentive policies and privileges foster the utilization of renewable energy sources. In this context, it is considered that the increase of the utilization of renewable energy sources strongly depends on government policies. A total of 64 countries are supporting electricity generation from renewable energy sources and 45 countries are offering purchase guarantee by feed-in-tariffs for electricity generated from renewables in the world in 2009 (WEC, 2009). As a result of these policies, the installed capacities of solar battery and wind power plants increased by 6 and 2.5 times, respectively. For example, after Renewable Energy Law in Germany was enacted in 2000, the electricity generation from wind and solar energy in 2007 increased by 5 and 50 times, respectively. The Turkish government primarily targets to increase the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation to at least 30% while decreasing the share of natural gas below 30%. In this context, the Turkish government has planned to make the required changes in the Law No. 5346 in 2010 to (i) fully utilize economically feasible hydropower potential in electricity generation, (ii) fully utilize economically feasible wind energy potential in electricity generation, (iii) provide full utilization of economically feasible geothermal energy potential of 600 MW, (iv) encourage and expand the utilization of solar energy for electricity generation until 2023. In order to achieve these targets, Turkey needs to increase the installed capacities of hydropower and wind power plants to 20,000 and 19,200 MW, respectively, within the next 15 years. However, there are uncertainties and variability in electricity generation from wind and solar energy sources. In this context, pumped-storage hydropower plants can be an alternative to balance the uncertainty of wind and solar power in Turkey as in the example of Europe. Pumped-storage hydroelectric facilities

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are well-established in their ability to balance intermittent sources of electrical energy such as wind and solar. In addition, pumped-storage units can also provide many stabilizing features to the grid. As a result of these and other benefits, many countries are developing new facilities or rehabilitating and upgrading existing plants. In fact, more than 127,000 MW of pumpedstorage capacity was operating worldwide in 2009. And the pumped storage market was expected to grow 60% over the next four years. This growth could mean a total installed pumpedstorage capacity of more than 203,000 MW by 2014 (Ingram, 2010). Turkish electrical power system has to be made stronger in Aegean and Mediterranean regions not to limit the integration of wind and solar energy into the grid. The weakness and small size of the grid in this region will be a barrier to utilize these renewable energy technologies in the future. If the cost of grid expansions will not be covered by Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TEIAS), the investment will not be profitable. Since Turkey is an EU-candidate, its laws and policies are expected to be consistent with those of the EU. In terms of energy production, the EU is promoting electricity production from renewable energy sources to decrease energy import and reduce greenhouse gas emissions throughout the union. Main instruments used in promoting renewable energy in the EU are: purchase guarantees by feed-in-tariffs, quota applications, and energy tax exemptions (Reiche and Bechberger, 2004). In Turkey, the first promotion instrument towards electricity generation from renewable energy sources was the enaction of the Electricity Market Law (Law. No. 4628) in March 2001. In the context of this law, individual and corporate entities that built electricity generation facilities, having a maximum installed capacity of 500 kW, from renewable energy sources were exempted from licensing obligations and setting up a company. Moreover, by this law, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) was established and private sector entrepreneurs were allowed to build and operate power plants by taking out a license from EMRA. In May 2005, the Law on the Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity Generation (Law No. 5346) was enacted in Turkey. The renewable energy sources included in the context of this law were: wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, biogas, wave, stream energy and tide, channel, SHP or hydropower production facilities having a reservoir area less than 15 km2. Some incentive mechanisms were introduced to the Turkish market for electricity generation from renewable energy sources by the Law No. 4628 and 5346. These mechanisms can be classified as licensing, land appropriation and purchase guarantee by a constant feed-in tariff. The incentives offered for the utilization of renewable energy sources in Turkey were revised by Law No. 6094 enacted on 31.12.2010. By this law, as discussed earlier by Kucukali and Baris (2010), different feedin-tariff amounts were offered for the utilization of different renewable sources in electricity generation. Moreover, domestic manufacturing of the equipment to be used were also promoted by the law. Table 10 presents the details of these mechanisms developed in Turkey. Even though these mechanisms were introduced in the Turkish markets and recently revised, they are still considered to be inadequate when compared to the EU countries leading the utilization of renewable energy sources. For example, Germany offers higher feed-in tariff amounts for different energy sources specified in the German Renewable Energy Law (Table 11). Nevertheless, even after the revision of Law No. 5346, feed-in tariff amounts in Turkey are not as attractive as in Europe. Enactment of the Renewable Energy Law in Turkey had a clear effect on hydropower development (Table 12) as well as on the installed capacity of wind power which increased from 20 to 802 MW between 2005 and 2009 (Fig. 10). Hydropower potential increased by 15% in 2007 as compared to 2006 and the planned plants increased by 4 times in the same year.

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Furthermore, planned installed capacity increased by 7% in 2007 as compared to 2006 and most of the projects in that year was composed of SHPs (Kucukali and Baris, 2009).

Table 10 Incentive mechanisms offered to individuals and corporate entities by Law Nos. 4628 and 5346. Incentive mechanism

Incentives

Licensing

(a) Individual and corporate entities built electricity generation facilities from renewable energy sources having maximum installed capacity of 500 kW are exempt from licensing and setting up a company (b) Only 1% of the licensing cost is paid by corporate entities applying to get a license and these entities do not pay annual licensing cost for the first eight years (c) Priority is given for system connection

Land appropriation

(a) Real properties which are either regarded as forest or the private property of Treasury are leased or right of easement or usage permits are given to such properties (b) 85% discount is applied to rent, right of easement and usage permits and Forest Villagers Development Revenue, Forestation and Erosion Control Revenues are not demanded during the first 10 years

Purchase guarantee

(a) Government guarantees to buy electricity for 10 years for renewable energy plants built or to be built between 18.05.2005 and 31.12.2015 offering a feed-in tariff amount of; 5.3 hc/kWh for hydropower and wind, 7.65 hc/kWh for geothermal, and 9.69 hc/kWh for solar and biomass power plants (as of 21.10.2011by rates of Turkish Central Bank) (b) Domestic manufacturing of the equipment to be used in power plants is promoted with additional feed-in-tariffs. The range for this is between 0.3 and 2.55 hc/kWh depending on the type of renewable and the equipment (as of 21.10.2011 by the rates of Turkish Central Bank) (c) For renewable power plants to be built after 31.12.2015, feed-in-tariff amount and duration will be decided by Turkish Council of Ministers (d) Corporate entities having licenses for renewable energy sources to generate electricity which can be sold in free market over 5.5 hc/kWh can also benefit from this incentive mechanism

5. Financing of renewable energy projects and estimation of potential savings by the utilization of renewable energy sources in Turkey Turkey is the 6th largest electricity market in Europe and it is also one of the fastest growing markets globally. In early 2000s, in order to meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish government initiated an ambitious reform program which was intense in the most important segments of Turkey’s energy market. This reform program has brought restructuring of the market together with privatization, liberalization and enhancement of competition (Erdogdu, 2007). Moreover, by enacting the Renewable Energy Law, the Turkish government provided a strong support towards increasing electricity generation from renewable energy sources. The Industrial Development Bank of Turkey (TSKB) and the Development Bank of Turkey (TKB) have been providing loan opportunities for the utilization of renewable energy sources for electricity generation. TSKB has provided loans for 43 hydropower plants, 2 wind power plants and geothermal energy projects having a total installed capacity of 1328, 53 and 57.2 MW, respectively. Turkey has also benefited from international grants to finance energy projects in the last five years. As a result of the application executed mutually by the World Bank and Turkey to finance the exploitation of renewable energy sources, a loan of nearly 200 million USD has been provided by TSKB and TKB for a total of 21 projects including 1 wind, 4 geothermal and 16 hydropower plant projects. Total installed capacity of these projects is 585 MW. Furthermore, the World Bank granted 600 million USD for a renewable energy and energy efficiency project in Turkey in May 2009. 500 million USD of this credit will be provided by the World Bank and the rest by the Clean Technology Fund (CTF). In this project, it is aimed to provide supply security through increasing the share of renewable energy sources, particularly SHPs, in energy production and supporting energy efficiency investments. Costs of the most common renewable energy applications in the world are shown in Table 13. As can be clearly seen from the table, the energy production costs for renewable energy technologies are in many cases still higher than for conventional energy technologies which are in the range of 4–8 $ct/kWh. However,

Installed Capacity (MW)

1000 Table 11 Feed-in tariffs for renewable energies specified in Germany. Data source: EEG (2009). Type of energy Hydropower Wind Solar PV Geothermal Biomass

a

Feed-in tariff amount

a

12.67 hc/kWh for P o 500 kW; 7.65 hc/kWh for 2 MW oP o 5 MW 9.2 hc/kW for 5 years, 5.02 hc/kW after 5 years 43.01 hc/kWh for P o30 kW; 33 hc/kWh for P 41 MW 16 hc/kWh for Po 10 MW; 10.5 hc/kWh for P 410 MW 11.67 hc/kWh for P o150 kW; 7.79 hc/kWh for 5 MW oP o 20 MW

800 600 400

Publication of Law. No.5346

200 0 2003

2004

2005

2006 Years

2007

2008

2009

Fig. 10. Progress in the installed capacity of wind energy in Turkey between 2003 and 2009.

P: installed capacity.

Table 12 Progress in hydropower plants after the enactment of Renewable Energy Law in Turkey (DSI, 2006; Tutus, 2008).

Number of projects Installed capacity (MW) Energy (GWh/year)

In operation (2006)

In operation (2007)

Under construction (2006)

Under construction (2007)

Planned (2006)

Planned (2007)

142 12,788 45,930

148 13,306 47,590

40 3197 10,518

158 6564 23,620

573 20,765 73,851

977 22,260 79,177


Table 13 Comparison of investment and energy production costs for some renewable energy technologies. Data source: IEA (2008). Type of renewable

Plant size (MW)

Typical unit investment cost ($/kW)

Typical energy production cost ($ct/kWh)

Large hydro Small hydro Onshore wind Geothermal Solar PV

10–18,000 1–10 1–3 1–100 1–10

1000–5500 2500–7000 1200–1700 1700–5700 5000–6500

3–12 6–14 1–14 3–10 20–80

Table 14 An economic analysis of renewable energy projects which have been financed by TSKB in Turkey (TSKB, 2008). Type of renewable

Number of projects

Hydropower 43 Wind 2 Geothermal 2

Installed capacity (MW)

Investment cost Unit investment (million $) cost ($/kW)

1328 53 57.2

1681 79 122.4

1266 1491 2140

costs of many renewable energy technologies have been declining significantly with technology improvements and market maturity (IEA, 2008). Moreover, it should be noted that each hydropower and geothermal project is site-specific. Hence, the ranges of investment cost of hydropower and geothermal plants vary significantly as compared to other renewable energy projects as seen in Table 13. Table 14 presents the comparison of the cost of some renewable energy sources in Turkey. As seen in the table, hydropower have the lowest investment cost among other renewable energy alternatives. In addition, investment and operating cost in Turkey is the lowest among the European countries. This is most probably due to lower construction and labor costs (Kucukali and Baris, 2009). In addition to the policies applied by the government, these lower costs are in favor of renewable energy investments by foreign entrepreneurs. In order to emphasize the importance of renewable energy sources for Turkey potential savings by the utilization of renewable energy sources between 2012 and 2019 were estimated using the data published in Generation Capacity Projection Report (2010–2019) by TEIAS (2011a) (Table 15). In this report TEIAS used the demand series which was prepared by MENR using Model of Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED) and revised by considering the effect of global economic crisis started at the end of 2008 on electricity demand. Thus, they proposed two scenarios for electricity generation. Table 15 shows the total projected electricity generation between 2012 and 2019 by the utilization of renewables and calculated potential savings accordingly. In calculating the potential savings, it is assumed that 1100 kWh electricity energy is needed to produce a 1000 USD of added value in industry as noted by TEIAS (2011b). Thus, it can roughly be assumed that the cost for 1.1 kWh of energy which cannot be supplied is about 1 USD. It is highly interesting to note that in none of the scenarios of TEIAS solar power was included in the electricity production though Turkey has a very high solar power potential. As shown in the above table the utilization of renewable energy sources in Turkey would significantly contribute to the country’s budget considering that Turkey paid 69.5 billion USD for only imported natural gas between 2002 and 2010 (Cumhuriyet, 2011).

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Table 15 Total projected electricity generation between 2010 and 2019 and calculated potential saving by the utilization of renewable energy sources in electricity generation in Turkey. Data source: TEIAS (2011a). Resource

Total projected electricity generation between 2010 and 2019 (GWh) Scenario I

Scenario II

Project capacity

Reliable capacity

Project capacity

Reliable capacity

Hydraulic Wind Biogas þwastes Total

26,313 2120 46 28,479

15,464 1806 46 17,316

22,195 2056 71 24,322

13,135 1751 71 14,957

Potential saving (billion USD)

25.9

15.7

22.1

13.6

6. Environmental impacts of renewable energy sources in Turkey and policy implications Energy is the most important input of development. However, it is not possible to provide a sustainable development without protecting the environment and taking economic considerations into account. In practice, it is inevitable for none of the energy generation types not to affect the environment at all. Even though renewable energy is called as ‘‘green energy’’ it still has negative effects on the environment. Nonetheless, these effects cannot be compared to those of fossil fuels. In this section environmental effects of renewable energy sources available in Turkey and policy implications will be discussed. Turkey, as an emerging economy, has been having a growing energy demand over the last decades and it is expected to continue in coming years. Thus, the utilization of all kinds of indigenous energy sources available in the country has a vital importance in meeting the energy demand of the country. As stated in the previous sections Turkey has a huge potential in renewable energy sources. However, the utilization of these sources depends not only on the economic factors but also the environmental impacts and limitations. There have been a growing attention, consciousness and concern in last years in Turkey on the effect of renewable energy sources on environment after the introduction of many power plants in the country in last decades, especially after the enactment of Renewable Energy Law (Law No. 5346) since it promotes the utilization of renewable energy sources. Hydropower (including SHPs), as the most abundant renewable energy source utilized throughout the country, is the one that has been drawing the most attention. General environmental concerns for hydropower are the prevention of the connection between upstream and downstream of the facility, blockage of fish passages and interruption of sediment transport. However, along with these general technical concerns, there have been intense protests against building new hydropower plants in Turkey since they disturb natural assets, the natural protected areas and their ecology. The protests have been focused especially on the Eastern Black Sea Region where 20% of the projects developed by private sector have been planned for this basin since it has a high capacity factor. Many non-governmental organizations have been founded to fight against building of new hydropower plants in Turkey. The most known protests have been rising over Firtina Valley which is located in Rize, Eastern Black Sea, and is known to be one of the 200 ecological region having top priority in the world.

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Even though there are protests against hydropower plants it seems that Turkish government still regards renewable energy sources as vital for the country and, thus promotes their utilization. The proof of this argument is new licenses granted by Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) for renewable energy sources. EMRA granted 88 hydropower plant licenses in 2010 and 122 in 2011 in Turkey (EMRA, 2011). Total installed capacities of these licensed hydropower plants is 2013 and 1056 MW, respectively. Moreover, Turkish government has recently enacted a legislative decree on August 17, 2011, indicating that the government has decided to found the General Directorate of Protection of Natural Assets and let only this directorate be authorized on natural parks, natural protected areas, wetlands, special environmental protection areas and other areas having such protection status (Turkish Law Gazette, 2011). It is stated in this legislative decree that the Directorate is uniquely responsible from the decisions on the utilization and structuring, preparation of environmental plans of all kind and scale, and production, modification and application of land use and development plans of such areas. Furthermore, along with these general principles, there is one interesting article (article 17, provisional article 6) in the same legislative decree that all documents related to the natural protection areas and natural assets in Turkey must be turned over to the Turkish Republic Ministry of Public Works and Settlement for reconsideration of the current states of these areas and assets. Particularly, article 17 of the legislation, together with the legislative decree itself, has been being criticized since it might create environmental concerns if current states of some of the natural protected areas and natural assets changes after reconsideration by the Ministry of Public Works and Settlement. It is believed that it would become very easy to build hydropower plants, or any other power plants, in natural protected areas and/or natural assets since the General Directorate of Protection of Natural Assets will be the only institution responsible from defining and/or deciding on which area should be considered as natural protected area or natural asset and the decisions of the Directorate on current states of the protected areas and natural assets might be affected by third parties. While this is the case in Turkey, European countries like Germany and Norway highly utilizing hydropower to generate electricity have been being very strict in protecting the environment. As of 31.12.2008, the protected rivers in Norway occupy 37.2% of annual hydropower potential of the country (NVE, 2011). Other renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass and geothermal currently do not draw much attention in Turkey in terms of environmental concerns as much as hydropower does since they are not as abundant as hydropower plants. However, there are some environmental drawbacks of such energy sources as well. In general, development of wind power has visual impacts, can cause noise pollution, and bat and avian mortality. However, potential negative impacts of such technologies can be avoided and minimized by careful planning. In fact, in Europe, wind farm developers are required to undertake Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) to gauge all potential significant environmental effects before construction starts (EWEA, 2011). Moreover, extensive efforts are also made to avoid sitting of wind farms in sensitive areas, i.e. migration routes which might attract large number of birds. As wind power has been getting more and more abundant throughout Turkey it seems that it might also create some environmental concerns in coming years. EMRA (2011) has granted 6 wind power plant licenses in 2010 and 76 in 2011 having total installed capacities of 220 and 2711 MW, respectively. Wind power plants having installed capacities more than 75 MW are subjected to EIA in Turkey by the Environmental

Impact Assessment Regulation issued in 2008 and published in Turkish Law Gazette No. 26939. However, the installed capacities of most of the licenses granted for electricity generation from wind power in Turkey are less than 75 MW. The wind power plant licenses with installed capacities more than 75 MW (9 licenses with total installed capacities of 901.5 MW) account only 31% of the total licenses granted in 2010 and 2011. Besides, the distribution of the installed capacities of the licenses granted in those years is as follows: 35 licenses for 0–20 MW, 14 licenses for 21– 40 MW, 21 licenses for 41–60 MW, 3 licenses for 61–75 MW and 9 licenses higher than 75 MW (EMRA, 2011). It is considered that for wind power plants in Turkey the minimum installed capacity of 75 MW for EIA requirement is too high comparing to other European countries. For example, wind parks in Germany with systems having a height more than 35 m each or capacity of more than 10 kW each, and comprising; 20 or more wind power systems requires EIA ( 40.2 MW), 6–19 wind power systems require general screening (between 0.06 and 0.19 MW) and 3–5 wind power systems require site-specific screening (between 0.03 and 0.05 MW) (UVPG, 2001). Furthermore, in United Kingdom wind parks with 5 or more turbines, or more than 5 MW of new generating capacity requires EIA (RTPI, 2001). Huge boost in licensing of wind power plants in 2011 could indicate that wind power will be available not only in urban sites of the country but also in parts closer to the cities where population is high. Hence, more concerns would be expected after the increase in the number of wind power plants in the country as the environmental effects of such technologies would be closely observed. Geothermal energy may negatively contribute to air and water pollution and greenhouse effect. Moreover, utilization of geothermal fluids may harm the geothermal structures, cause subsidence and pollute water ways. Generally, bioenergy may create soil degradation and affects the natural life. Contrary to other renewable energy sources solar power seems to cause less impact on the environment. The only drawback of solar power is the use of poisonous chemicals like cadmium and selenium in photovoltaic (PV) systems. Thus, disposal of such systems at the end of their lifespans may create environmental pollution. However, utilization of these renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar and biomass) are not abundant throughout Turkey. EMRA (2011) granted 4 geothermal power plant licenses in 2010 and 5 in 2011 having total installed capacities of 63.5 and 104.9 MW, respectively, whereas a total of 10 licenses for biomass power plants in 2010 and 2011 (5 each year) having installed capacities of 15.5 and 13.2 MW, respectively. Even though the country has a high potential for solar power no licenses were granted in Turkey for electricity generation from solar power.

7. Comparison of renewable energy source (RES) technologies available in Turkey A multi-criteria analysis tool was developed within the scope of this study in order to evaluate the performance of different RES technologies under technical, economic, environmental and social aspects, and decide on the best possible RES option for Turkey. The similar criteria has also been used in other studies such as Beccali et al. (2003), Kahraman et al. (2009), IHA (2010), Kucukali (2011), Orcel and Meynell (2011). Operating principle of the method is to make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of alternatives by assessing sub-criteria. In the study, since the authors believe that each factor has the same level of importance to achieve sustainable development, same weights (i.e. 25%) were assigned to all criteria (technical, economic,


environmental and social) for the assessment. The criteria including sub-criteria used for the RES technology comparison are as follows: technical: reliability, efficiency, simplicity, economic: investment cost, investment risk, capacity factor, environmental: CO2 emissions and impact on ecosystem, social: public acceptance and job creation. Table 16 shows the detailed information about the assessment criteria used in the study. Assessments are intended to be as objective as possible to prevent to assign different scores for a given criterion by different experts. The performance of each criterion is scored from 1 to 3, with 3 being the best option. There are five RES technology alternatives to be considered, compared and ranked in the case of Turkey. These are hydropower, wind, solar PV, geothermal and biomass. The performances of these technologies were evaluated based on the criteria presented in Table 16. Several references, such as Boyle (2004), Kammen et al. (2004), IEA (2008), Kaltschmitt et al. (2007) and WEC (2004) were used to score the criteria for the evaluation of the RES technologies and the assessment results are given in Table 17. According to the results of multi-criteria analysis tool developed in this study it seems that the most appropriate renewable energy alternative for Turkey is biomass, simply because of the highest social benefit among others. The wind and geothermal energy takes the second rank followed by solar PV and hydropower. The main disadvantage of the wind energy is that it has low capacity factor (i.e. 25%) and it does not create considerable

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job opportunities during the operation (Daniel et al., 2004). On the other hand, the high capacity factor of geothermal energy (i.e. 90%) makes it attractive but geothermal energy projects involve high financial risks like hydropower because of geologic factors (Kucukali, 2011). The solar PV could not be seen as an energy alternative in short-period in Turkey, because of its high investment cost ranging between 5000–6500 USD/kW. As seen in Table 17, due to the environmental and social issues hydropower is ranked third although hydropower is the most available RES technology available in Turkey and it has the highest technical score with the efficiency between 80 and 93.

8. Conclusions In this study, the availability and potentials of renewable energy sources in Turkey were evaluated as well as the Table 17 Assessment of the different RES technologies. Technology

T1

T2

T3

EC1

EC2

EC3

EN1

EN2

S1

S2

Total score

Rank

Biomass Wind Hydropower Solar PV Geothermal

2 2 3 2 2

2 1 3 1 1

2 3 1 3 2

2 3 3 1 2

2 2 1 3 1

3 1 2 1 3

1 3 3 3 2

2 2 1 1 2

3 2 1 2 2

3 1 1 2 2

22 20 19 19 19

1 2 3 3 3

Table 16 Evaluation matrix for the comparison of RES power plants. Criteria Technical T1. Reliability

T2. Efficiency

T3. Simplicity Economic EC1. investment cost

EC2. investment risk

EC3. capacity factor

Environmental EN1. CO2 emissions

EN2. impact on ecosystem

Social S1. public acceptance

S2. Job creation

Description

Score ¼1

Score ¼2

Score ¼3

Represents the technology’s maturity rate as well as its penetration percentage in the international market The ratio of useful power output (e.g. electricity) to the power input (e.g. wind energy) Construction and installation period of the power plant

Prototype and demonstration stage technologies

Gap technologies: technologies that could still be improved

Efficiency is between 10% and 40%

Efficiency is between 40% and 70%

Mature technologies: technologies that are close to reaching the theoretical limits of efficiency Efficiency is higher than 70%

Higher than 2 years

Between 1 and 2 years

Less than 1 year

The total costs of a RES project from planning to grid connection The degree of uncertainty in investment cost

High cost technology: investment cost is higher than 4000 $/kW The project involves various uncertainties such as geology, civil works, environmental issues and legal context Capacity factor is between 10% and 40%

Investment cost is between 2500–4000 $/kW There are some barriers and risks in project development

Low cost technology: investment cost is between 1000 and 2500 $/kW The project involves few uncertainties

Capacity factor is between 40% and 70%

Capacity factor is higher than 70%

The amount of CO2 emission of a power plant during electricity generation The degree of habitat destruction and biodiversity loss of a power plant during operation

The CO2 emission of scheme is higher than 50 t/GWh

The CO2 emission of scheme is less than 50 t/GWh

There is no CO2 emission

The facility has significant impact on existing wildlife habitat and populations which can lead to biodiversity loss

The facility has impact on ecosystem

The facility has minor impact on ecosystem

The status of the local community to accept the project

The facility stop or limit local community ability to utilize surrounding lands to provide a livelihood Less than 0.5 jobs/MW

The facility has important noise and visual pollution

Local community has economic benefit from the facility

Between 0.5 and 1 jobs/MW

Higher than 1 jobs/MW

The actual production of a power plant in relation to its production at full power in a year

Average employment over a life of facility in operation

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effectiveness of government policies particularly on the Renewable Energy Law (Law Nos. 5346 and 6094) and its compatibility to the EU policy. Even though the Law No. 5346 contradicts with the EU legislations, its effect can be clearly seen immediately after it was enacted. As compared to 2005, when Law No. 5346 was enacted, the installed capacity of wind power increased from 20 to 802 MW while the construction of hydropower plants increased four times from 2006 to 2007, and the planned power plants were almost doubled during the same period. It is considered that the enactment of the Law No. 5346 is an appreciable start in terms of encouraging private sector to invest renewable energy sources and adaptation of Turkey to the EU policies. Moreover, Law No. 6094 enacted in 31.12.2010 had a positive effect on the diversification of feedin tariff amounts offered for different renewables. However, considering high renewable energy potential of Turkey, feed-in tariff amounts offered by this law do not seem adequate comparing to other countries. Renewable energy strategy of Turkey in near future is primarily based on maximization of the exploitation of economically feasible hydropower and wind energy potential of the country. In this respect, it is expected that the hydropower and wind power plants with respective installed capacities of 27,500 and 19,200 MW would be built by private sector within the next 15 years. By the realization of these investments, it is aimed that the share of renewable energy sources in total energy sources would be increased from 20% to 30% by 2023. Nevertheless, conflicts of the Renewable Energy Law (Law No. 5346) enacted to increase the utilization of renewable energy sources with the EU policies create serious obstacles to achieve this target. The first conflict with the EU policies is that the constant feed-in tariff amount offered in Turkey does not take capital investments of specific energy sources into account. In order to resolve this problem Turkish government recently revised this law and modified the constant feed-in-tariff amount. However, feed-in-tariff amounts offered for different renewable sources are not high enough as compared to EU member states. The second conflict is that hydropower plants with a reservoir area less than 15 km2 are considered within the definition of renewable energy defined by Law No. 5346, thus shifting private sector interest from SHPs to big hydropower plants. This issue is handled differently in the EU in such a way that governments take installed capacity of power plants into account and plants with lower installed capacities get higher amount of incentive. The last conflict with the EU legislation is that no detailed Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report is required in the construction of power plants utilizing renewable energy sources in Turkey. However, in the EU, the organizations such as the European Investment Bank investigate the probable harms of a project to the environment while considering financing it. This is a serious conflict as more and more attention is being paid to environmental issues in the EU as well as the world. Another limitation to the utilization of renewable energy sources, especially wind and hydropower, in Turkey is that all the equipment necessary to build such power plants are completely supplied from foreign countries. Since this is a costincreasing factor, it is considered that the governments must improve the current situation by developing policies to promote the manufacturing of the equipment used in wind and hydropower plants in domestic markets. The enactment of Law No. 6094 was the first step to solve the issue. Turkey, now, offers additional feed-in tariff amounts for domestic manufacturing of the equipment to be used in power plants running with renewable energy sources. There is no doubt that Turkey has had a significant progress in the utilization of the renewable energy sources in electricity

generation in last decade. Legislation improvements have been achieved towards renewable sources in the country as parallel to the development in the world due to climate change issues. However, considering country’s huge potential the share of renewables in electricity generation is still not at desired levels. Since each renewable energy source has its own conditions, application areas and methods, special limitations and cost elements, new laws and regulations should be developed for each renewable energy sources. Besides, as the environmental concerns have an increasing importance in both the EU and the world, measures to be taken to overcome these concerns are considered as the most important necessity for a country like Turkey to become an EU Member State. Hence, in order to minimize the environmental effects resulting from the utilization of renewable energy sources in Turkey, revision and restructuring of laws and regulations related to environmental issues are needed and more effort must be spent on the monitoring and auditing of the facilities that have been built and/or will be built. Especially, EIA requirements for renewable energy sources should be revised considering more strict requirements available in other European countries. In this way, effective utilization of renewable energy potential in Turkey can be provided and sustainable development may be maintained through reducing the dependence of energy sector of the country on foreign energy supplies.

Acknowledgment The authors wish to sincerely thank Prof. Hasan Gercek (Zonguldak Karaelmas University) for his kind help in language editing of the manuscript.

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