Boletin Solo Negocios

Solo Negocios Bulletin


i

Date

June 4, 2018

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Solo Negocios Tip Today, in the Solo Negocios Bulletin, macroeconomic and financial indicators resulting in depreciation for the Peso, positive stock markets, inflation charges interest in Udibonos, global oil down. We issue also the Solo Negocios Tip. We hope all the SNB is useful for you; and remember that:

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ECONOMIC INDICATORS Foreign Exchange and Metal Markets

Concept Buy Variation % Var.30 days % US Dollar National Average 19.13 0.07% 6.25% US Dollar Minimum National 18.48 At Bancomer US Dollar Maximum National 19.85 At HSBC Spread Minimum 0.46 @ HSBC Maximum Fix US Dollar Today 19.9759 1.24% 7.28% US Dollar Interbank (48h.) 20.0185 0.56% 6.16% US Dollar Juarez Average 17.98 0.00% 2.86% Peso Futures (CME) June 2018 Pesos in USD 0.04983 -0.01% -4.23% USD/pesos Conversion 20.0682 6.02% 4.42% Canadian Dollar 15.44 0.28% 5.51% Brazilian Real 5.32 -0.28% -2.68% Euro 23.35 0.63% 1.86% Sterling Pound 26.65 0.80% 1.80% Japanese Yen 0.1820 -0.37% 5.19% Chinese Yuan 3.1124 0.43% 4.84% Bitcoin 149,215.63 0.50% -16.29% Gold Ounce (international) 25,988.42 0.80% 3.87% Silver Ounce (international) 330.24 0.97% 4.99% Libertad Gold Ounce (MX) 22,935.00 1.05% 4.87% Libertad Silver Ounce (MX) 454.00 1.11% 7.33% Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 1,171.66 -0.07% Yield 0.16% Euro in USD (spot) 1.1691 0.27% USD in Yen (spot) 109.8900 0.32% Sterling Pound in USD (spt) 1.3308 -0.28% Yen in Euro (spot) 128.4600 0.58% Euro in Sterling Pound (spt) 0.8784 0.54% Yen Euros USD in Hong Kong Dollars(spt) 7.8468 0.02%

Sale 20.25 19.79 20.71 1.95 @ Bancomer

+1d 19.9759 20.0260 18.88 0.04836 20.6782 15.44 5.32 23.36 26.66 0.1821 3.1157 149,215.63 25,988.42 330.24 28,413.00 588.00

Variation % Var.30 days % 0.35% 6.25% At Azteca At Monex Average 1.12 1.24% 7.28% 0.56% 6.17% 0.53% 2.15% December 2018 -0.25% -4.43% 0.25% 4.63% 0.28% 5.51% -0.30% -2.67% 0.63% 1.87% 0.80% 1.81% -0.38% 5.19% 0.44% 4.86% 0.50% -16.29% 0.80% 3.87% 0.97% 4.99% 0.84% 3.89% 0.86% 5.57%

$24.00

$0.0093

$19.00

$0.0092

$1.30

$14.00

$0.0091

$1.25 $1.20

$9.00

$0.0090

$1.15

$4.00 05/05/18

$0.0089

$1.10

18/05/18

Various Currencies against Peso $29.00

(spot, 30 days in US Dollar; dates in Mexican format)

$1.35

15/05/18

Other data: * Support 19.45, resistance 20.20 to 20.60 wholesale. * Spread: 1.12, +0.06 on Friday. * Futures: + 0.25% at 12/18 @ 30 days, it gets worse. * Linear trend: Depr. interb. 12m and bank 30d. (spot or sale, 30 days in pesos; dates in Mexican format)

Various Currencies against US Dollar

$1.40

12/05/18

Technical Note The peso depreciates, pressures: + Protectionism. MX and EE commercial war UU., Generates caution and fears for NAFTA. + Oil down. - BDSI -0.16%. - Geopolitics. Lower tensions in Ialia and Spain, lower the demand for the dollar as a refuge. - USA. Factory orders -0.8% in April, lower than -0.5% expected. Orders of goods -1.6%. - Banxico. Exchange hedges, demand 385 million dollars, 3.85 times the 100 million dollars to 92 days.

21/05/18

24/05/18

Sterling Pound

27/05/18

30/05/18

Linear (Yen)

02/06/18

Linear (Euros)

05/06/18

08/06/18

Linear (Sterling Pound)

10/05/18

15/05/18

20/05/18

25/05/18

30/05/18

Canadian Dollar

Real

Euro

Linear (Canadian Dollar)

Linear (Real)

Linear (Euro)

04/06/18

09/06/18

Graphs Peso / US Dollar Various Conversion

Bank Spread

(spot or sale, 30 days in pesos, dates in Mexican format)

(30 days, minimum, maximum and average)

$20.50

Interbank Exchange Rate Peso/US Dollar (sale, 12 months; dates in Mexican format)

$4.00

25.00%

$20.50

20.00%

$3.50 $20.00

15.00%

$20.00

$3.00 10.00% $19.50

$2.50

$19.50

5.00%

$2.00

0.00% $19.00

$19.00

-5.00%

$1.50

-10.00% $1.00

$18.50

-15.00%

$18.50

$0.50

-20.00%

$0.00

$18.00

$18.00

-25.00% $17.50

$17.50 05/05/18


Minimal Spread

Maximum Spread

Average Spread

Banxico's Fix

Sale National Banking Average

Juarez Sale

Spread Mobility %

Lineal (Minimal Spread)

Lineal (Maximum Spread)

Linear (Banxico's Fix)

Linear (National Banking Average))

Linear (Juarez)

Lineal (Average Spread)

Lineal (Spread Mobility %)

10/05/18

15/05/18

20/05/18

25/05/18

30/05/18

04/06/18

09/06/18

$17.00 15/02/18

16/04/18

Sale Interbank

15/06/18

Linear (Sale Interbank)



ECONOMIC INDICATORS Stock Exchange Markets

Concept

Value

IPyC Mexican Stock Exchange VIMEX Volatility Index Canada, S&P/TSX Compound Index NYSE DJIA, USA NASDAQ, USA S&P500, USA VIX Volatility Index Brazil IVOBESPA Chile IPSA Argentina MERVAL Trend Average: America Trend Average: North America Trend Average: LATAM ISEQ, Ireland FTSE100, England AEX, Netherland BEL20, Belgium OMX, Denmark OSEAX, Norway DAX30, Germany SMI, Switzerland PSI20, Portugal IBEX35, Spain CAC40, France MIB, Italy GD.AT, Greece MICEX, Russia ESTX50, Europe EURONEXT 100, Europa Trend Average: Europe

Variation % America 45,243.98 0.51% 12.15 0.00% 16,052.24 0.05% 24,813.69 0.72% 7,606.46 0.69% 2,746.87 0.45% 12.74 -5.35% 78,596.06 1.76% 5,558.50 1.59% 29,036.15 2.11% 0.25% 0.40% 1.49% Europe 7,182.42 0.00% 7,741.29 0.51% 561.70 0.45% 3,834.90 0.67% 579.39 0.05% 1,004.97 0.11% 12,770.75 0.37% 8,634.42 0.18% 5,584.20 1.21% 9,750.30 1.22% 5,472.91 0.14% 22,009.95 -0.45% 778.57 0.23% 2,285.53 0.00% 3,469.57 0.46% 1,065.05 0.50% 0.35%

Var.30 days%

Var.1 year%

-6.60% 0.00% 3.22% 1.49% 6.70% 2.87% -22.03% -8.18% -2.56% -6.16% -3.13% 1.28% -4.23%

-3.95% -11.83% 3.52% 18.71% 29.76% 15.77% 10.11% 21.52% 24.22% 53.66% 16.15% 8.67% 23.86%

4.99% 4.63% 1.34% -2.51% -0.24% 4.32% 1.58% -1.96% 0.72% -1.73% 0.63% -8.23% -7.16% 0.00% -1.24% 1.10% -0.23%

7.55% 5.42% 9.89% 1.87% 3.42% 30.26% 6.75% -0.41% 20.71% -2.56% 9.60% 11.96% 20.04% 15.78% 1.56% 10.43% 9.52%

Concept

Value Africa 16,404.30 202.46 3,308.95

CASE30, Egypt S&P, Africa FTSE, Africa Trend Average: Africa

Asia 1,292.38 1,588.44 35,011.89 3,091.19 11,109.50 30,997.98 2,447.76 22,475.94 3,467.48 6,025.50

TA100, Israel DJGCC, Middle East BSESN, India SSE, China TSEC, Taiwan Hang Seng, Hong Kong Kospi, South Korea Nikkei225, Japan STI, Singapore AXJO, Australia Trend Average: Asia

Variation %

Var.30 days%

Var.1 year%

-0.06% 1.33% 0.00% 0.42%

-1.79% 0.00% 0.00% -3.69%

14.84% -1.94% 0.86% 13.51%

0.00% 0.00% -0.61% 0.52% 1.47% 1.66% 0.36% 1.37% 1.17% 0.59% 0.42%

0.00% 0.00% 1.63% 0.76% 3.85% 2.46% -1.07% 1.76% -3.13% 2.37% -3.69%

0.86% 1.01% 20.95% -3.78% 15.39% 31.52% 16.71% 14.65% 10.66% 4.33% 13.51%

Mexican Stock Exchange (1 year, daily results, 30 days trend; dates in Mexican format) 53,000.00 52,000.00 51,000.00 50,000.00 49,000.00 48,000.00 47,000.00 46,000.00 45,000.00 44,000.00 05/06/17

05/07/17

04/08/17

03/09/17

03/10/17

02/11/17

02/12/17 BMV

01/01/18

31/01/18

02/03/18

01/04/18

01/05/18

31/05/18

30/06/18

02/03/18

01/04/18

01/05/18

31/05/18

30/06/18

Linear (BMV)

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Stock Exchanges

(1 year, daily results, 30 days trend)

(30 days, daily results, various stock exchanges, and 5 days trend; dates in Mexican format) 98,000.00

14,000.00

27,500.00

88,000.00

13,000.00

26,500.00

78,000.00

12,000.00

68,000.00

11,000.00

58,000.00

10,000.00

48,000.00

9,000.00

21,500.00

38,000.00

8,000.00

20,500.00

28,000.00

7,000.00

19,500.00

25,500.00 24,500.00 23,500.00

18,000.00

6,000.00 05/05/18


15/05/18

25/05/18

04/06/18

BMV

DJIA

BOVESPA

NIKKEI225

FTSE100

DAX30

Linear (BMV)

Linear (DJIA)

Linear (Bovespa)

Linear (Nikkei225)

Linear (FTSE100)

Linear (DAX30)

22,500.00

18,500.00 17,500.00 05/06/17

05/07/17

04/08/17

03/09/17

03/10/17

02/11/17

02/12/17 DJIA

01/01/18

31/01/18

Linear (DJIA)



Stock Exchange Markets (continue) Stock Exchanges

Regional Trends

(30 days, percentage movements, dates in Mexican format)

(30 days, registered regions percentage movements; dates on Mexican format)

6.00%

3.00%

2.50% 4.00% 2.00%

1.50%

2.00%

1.00% 0.00% 0.50%

0.00% -2.00% -0.50% -4.00%

-1.00%

-1.50% -6.00% -2.00%

-2.50%

-8.00% 05/05/18

10/05/18

15/05/18 BMV

DJIA

20/05/18 BOVESPA

FTSE100

25/05/18 DAX30

30/05/18

04/06/18

06/05/18

11/05/18

16/05/18 America

NIKKEI225

North America

21/05/18 LATAM

26/05/18 Europe

Africa

31/05/18 Asia

Technical Note

* Mexico. The market closed up with material sectors, industry, and consumer goods and services, such as Gmexico, VOLARIS and Alsea, Bajan Arca Continental, Bimbo and Grupo LALA. * Argentina. The market closed with a rise led by Petrobras. RPLATC + 1% bonds, country risk 484 points. * Brazil. The market closed up with basic material sectors, industry, and finance. * Chile. The market closed with a rise in world markets and a rise in copper. * Peru. The market closed with a rise in S & P Lima Juniors, banking and finance, and mining. * Canada. The market closed up with information technology, health, and discretionary consumer sectors. * US. Markets closed with rise by consumer services, consumer goods, and technology sectors. CBOE Volatility Index, -5.65% to 12.70. Winners of the S & P500 are Under Armor Inc. and Under Armor Inc. * Europe. Markets closed higher as a result of easing political tensions in Italy. But follow caution for commercial war. * Asia. Markets closed strongly, led by Tokyo with weak yen. China also rises, but cautiously because of trade war.




ECONOMIC INDICATORS Money Market

Concept Interest Rate Target TIIE28 TIIE182 Average Percent Cost (rate) CETES28 CETES182 CETES364 30 year Bond International Reserves (mdd) Monetary Base (M1) (mdp) UDIS UMA Monthly Prices Index General NCPI Underlying NCPI No Underlying NCPI Juarez CPI Total NPPI Final NPPI Intermediate NPPI Biweekly Price Index General NCPI Underlying NCPI No Underlying NCPI Concept Interest Rate Target Interest Rate Target (effective) Bank Prime Loan T-Bill(4wk) International Reserves (md) Monetary Base (M1) (md)

Rate Variation Unit/Period 7.50% points 7.8529% 0.0029 points 7.9971% 0.0221 points 5.0600% 0.0002 points 7.35% 0.0011 points term 28 days amount 7.68% 0.0004 points term 175 days amount 7.70% 0.0008 points term 364 days amount 7.86% 0.0024 points term 10885 días amount 172,539 130.00 mdd 1,504,459 50,017.50 mdp 6.001509 0.001093 points daily 80.60 annual Date Monthly Pt. Variation -0.34% -0.66% 5/9/18 0.15% -0.18% -1.72% -2.02% 0.01% -0.36% Period -0.04% -0.49% Apr-18 -0.08% -0.52% 0.04% -0.41% Date Biweekly Pt. Variation 5/24/18 -0.29% 0.0029 0.13% 0.0003 Period -1.51% 0.0123 1Q May 2018 USA Rate Variation Unit/Period 1.00 - 1.25% points 1.16% points 4.25% points 1.14% 0.0003 points 3,385.8

Monthly Prices Index Date CPI 5/10/18 CPI Food & Beverages Period CPI (no F&B) dic-16 Final (no adjusted) 5/9/18 Final (adjusted) Period Final (no food/energy/commerce.na) Apr-18 Intermediate Process (n.a.)


7.20% Monthly 0.40% 0.33% 0.16% 0.09% 0.09% 0.00% 0.71%

md, annual Pt. Variation 0.0017 0.0029 -0.0016 -0.0044 -0.0017 -0.0037 0.0081

Mexico Graphs Date 6/4/18 CETES and Bonds Interbank Rates 6/4/18 6/4/18 6/4/18 2/8/18 9000 mp TIIE28 TIIE182 Linear (TIIE28) 2/8/18 Linear (TIIE182) Lineal (TIIE182) CETES28 CETES182 CETES364 11500 mp Bonos30 Lineal (CETES28) Lineal (CETES182) 2/8/18 Lineal (CETES364) Lineal (CETES364) Lineal (Bonos30) Objective Rate and APC 12500 mp Annual Inflation 2/8/18 (12 months) 3500 mp 14.00% 12.00% 12/15/17 10.00% 12/15/17 8.00% 6.00% 6/4/18 4.00% Target Rate APC Linear (Objecctive Rate) Linear (APC) 29,402.88 2.00% Annual Pt. Variation This Year Pt. Variation 4.55% -0.48% 0.90% -0.34% NCPI General Underlying No Underlying 3.71% -0.31% 1.25% 0.15% 7.07% -0.96% -0.12% -1.75% Technical Note 4.73% -0.42% 1.03% 0.02% 4.00% 0.36% 1.70% -0.04% 3.73% 0.16% 1.22% -0.08% 4.61% 0.81% 2.78% 0.04% Annual Pt. Variation This Year Pt. Variation 4.46% 0.0005 7.35% 0.0031 3.69% 0.0002 6.34% 0.0014 6.79% 0.0031 10.44% 0.0169 The demand for hedging instruments against inflation rises on fears that increases in energy Date Graph and exchange rates will slow down the deceleration of inflation in Mexico. The USA Rates (3 months) 6/3/18 Udibonos rise due to an increase in May biweekly inflation. It had a low cycle in March and April, and can anticipate greater difficulties for inflation. Annual inflation in the feb-17 Target Rate Effective Rate Tbill 4wk first half of May is 4.46% when the previous Annual Pt. Variation This Year Pt. Variation one was 4.41%. 2.46% 1.63% 0.0010 0.0040 1.39% 0.78% 0.0010 0.0033 2.14% 1.37% 0.0002 0.0016 2.57% 1.49% -0.0037 0.0009 2.58% 0.96% -0.0046 0.0009 2.37% 1.41% -0.0059 0.0000 4.70% 2.22% 0.0008 0.0072 (90 days)

(30 days)

8.00%

8.15%

7.80%

7.95%

7.60%

7.75%

7.40%

7.55%

7.35% 06/05/2018

7.20%

11/05/2018

16/05/2018

21/05/2018

26/05/2018

31/05/2018

05/06/2018

7.00%

6.80% 24/03/2018

23/04/2018

23/05/2018

(365 days)

8.00% 7.00%

6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%

2.00% 05/06/2017

05/09/2017

05/12/2017

05/03/2018

05/06/2018

1.80% 1.30%

0.80% 20/03/2018

04/04/2018

19/04/2018

04/05/2018

19/05/2018

03/06/2018



ECONOMIC INDICATORS Energy Market

Hydrocarbon Market Graphs USD/b Variation $ Variation % Var. Annual % Oil Baskets Prices 63.17 0.80 -1.3% 31.52% 85.00 64.75 1.06 -1.6% 26.39% 75.00 75.29 2.30 -3.1% 33.66% 74.23 0.94 -1.3% 34.19% 65.00 2.93 0.03 -1.08% -3.68% 55.00 NA NA NA NA 45.00 NA NA NA NA 35.00 Motor Gasoline (consumer prices) Mexico (MXN) Price/lt Variation % Var. % Annual Date National: Magna (avg +1 d) 18.02 0.33% 13.44% Natural Gas Price National: Premium (avg +1 d) 19.50 0.55% 10.49% 3.70 National: Diesel (avg +1 d) 19.10 0.32% 14.16% 3.50 V zone: CJS - Magna (stim) 13.92 2.58% 14.57% 3.30 06/04/18 V zone: CJS - Premium (stim) 16.35 -0.12% 9.95% 3.10 V zone: CJS - Diesel (stim) 18.23 -0.12% 9.75% 2.90 NA NA NA NA 2.70 NA NA NA NA 2.50 NA NA NA NA GN/NG Linear (NG) USA (MXN Fix basis) Price/lt Variation % Var. % Annual Date TX-avg: Regular 87 14.41 1.75% 37.54% Motor Gasoline: USA (left) vs Mexico (righta) TX-avg: Premium >90 17.32 1.50% 35.25% (4 months, MXN Fix per litre) 06/04/18 TX-avg: Diesel Ultralow 16.12 2.16% 41.64% 18.00 20.00 19.00 TX-Hou: Regular 87 14.49 1.24% 43.79% 16.00 18.00 TX-Hou: Premium >90 17.41 2.87% 35.25% 14.00 17.00 12.00 Technical Notes 16.00 15.00 The oil closed down with 2nd day in line, before historical figures of US production, and reports of 10.00 canceling OPEC Agreement. Today, only Russia produces more than US. OPEP informal meeting Regular Premium Diésel Ultra Bajo Azufre Magna MX agreed to maintain cooperation to balance global supply. The key meeting on June 22 will deal with >90 Premium MX Diésel MX Lineal (Premium Lineal (Diésel Ultra Bajo Azufre) how to compensate for lack of product by sanctions against Venezuela and Iran at the end of the >90) Lineal (Magna MX) Lineal (Magna MX) Lineal (Premium MX) Lineal (Diésel MX) year. USA Energy Information Administration Last 5/25/18 Next 6/1/18 Technical Notes Graphs Refinery Activity USA Inventories Product Value Variation Unit US oil inventories (wo/SR) decreased from Crude Oil Input to Refineries 16,726.00 148.00 1000s daily barrels Refinery Capacity Utilization (%) 0.92 0.01 points previous week and are in lower half of average Motor Gasoline Production 10,230.00 97.00 1000s daily barrels range. Total motor gasoline increased and are in Distillate Fuel Oil Production 5,064.00 75.00 1000s daily barrels upper half of average range. Finished gasoline Inventories increased, but blending components decreased. Product Value Variation Unit Distillate fuel increased and are in lower half of Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) 434.50 3.60 million barrels average range. Propane/propylene increased and Motor Gasoline 234.50 0.60 million barrels are in lower half of average range. Total Distillate Fuel Oil 114.60 0.60 million barrels All Other Oils 410.40 4.20 million barrels inventories increased last week. Crude Oil (wo/SPR) Motor Gasoline Distillate Fuel Oil Crude Oil in SPR 660.80 0.50 million barrels All Other Oils Crude Oil in SPR Total 1,854.80 1.30 million barrels Concept Mexican Crude Oil Basket West Texas Intermediate Brent from North Sea OPEP Reference Basket Intl. Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu) MX Natural Gas avg.(MXN/GJ) Liquefied oil gas (MXN/kg)

(1 year, USD)

04/06/2017

04/09/2017

WTI

Brent

04/12/2017

MME

OPEP

04/03/2018

Linear (WTI)

Linear (Brent)

Linear (MME)

04/06/2018

Linear (OPEP)

(1 year, MM/Btu USD)

04/06/2017

04/09/2017

04/12/2017

04/03/2018

04/06/2018

(4 months, million of barrels)

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100




NEXT DAY ECONOMIC AGENDA

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Eurozone Budget balance of France (Apr), -33.1B PMI Spain (May), 5560.0% PMI Italy (May), 5260.0% PMI France by Markit (May), 5450.0% PMI Germany (May), 5310.0% PMI eurozone (May), 5410.0% Eurozone Retail Sales (Annual) (Apr), 0.80%

Australia GDP (Annual) (1Q), 2.40% Brazil Inflation indicator IPC-Fipe (Monthly) (May), -0.03% Industrial activity (Annual) (Apr), 1.30% Composite PMI and services

India Nikkei services PMI (May), 5140.0%

Glen GDP (Quarterly) (1Q), 0.20% Chile Economic Activity (Annual) (Apr), 4.60%

Japan Average income of workers (Annual), 2.10% Overtime payment (Annual) (Apr), 1.80%

Colombia Inflation (Annual) (May), 3.13%

Mexico Consumer confidence (May), 8650.0%

USA NFIB Indicator PyMes (May), 10480.0% Redbook Indicator (Annual), 4.30% Composite PMI Markit (May), 5570.0% PMI services (May), 5570.0% IBD / TIPP economic optimism, 5360.0% ISM non-manufacturing JOLTs survey of job offers (Abr), 6.550M Debt auction Weekly reserves of API crude, 1,001M

New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade price index, 1.90% ANZ indicator of raw material prices (Monthly), 1.0% United Kingdom Service PMI (May), 5280.0% South Africa PMI of the HSBC economy set (May), 5040.0% GDP (Annual) (1Q), 1.50%

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