Brother Sun, Sister Moon: The Lunar Cycle, Sunspots and the Frequency of
Births. #225. Thomas K. Bauer. Stefan Bender. Jörg Heining. Christoph M.
Schmidt ...
RUHR ECONOMIC PAPERS
Thomas K. Bauer Stefan Bender Jörg Heining Christoph M. Schmidt
Brother Sun, Sister Moon: The Lunar Cycle, Sunspots and the Frequency of Births
#225
Imprint
Ruhr Economic Papers Published by Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB), Department of Economics Universitätsstr. 150, 44801 Bochum, Germany Technische Universität Dortmund, Department of Economic and Social Sciences Vogelpothsweg 87, 44227 Dortmund, Germany Universität Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics Universitätsstr. 12, 45117 Essen, Germany Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) Hohenzollernstr. 1-3, 45128 Essen, Germany Editors Prof. Dr. Thomas K. Bauer RUB, Department of Economics, Empirical Economics Phone: +49 (0) 234/3 22 83 41, e-mail:
[email protected] Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Leininger Technische Universität Dortmund, Department of Economic and Social Sciences Economics – Microeconomics Phone: +49 (0) 231/7 55-3297, email:
[email protected] Prof. Dr. Volker Clausen University of Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics International Economics Phone: +49 (0) 201/1 83-3655, e-mail:
[email protected] Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt RWI, Phone: +49 (0) 201/81 49 -227, e-mail:
[email protected] Editorial Office Joachim Schmidt RWI, Phone: +49 (0) 201/81 49 -292, e-mail:
[email protected] Ruhr Economic Papers #225 Responsible Editor: Thomas K. Bauer All rights reserved. Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg, Essen, Germany, 2010 ISSN 1864-4872 (online) – ISBN 978-3-86788-257-6 The working papers published in the Series constitute work in progress circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed represent exclusively the authors’ own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the editors.
Ruhr Economic Papers #225 Thomas K. Bauer, Stefan Bender, Jörg Heining, and Christoph M. Schmidt
Brother Sun, Sister Moon: The Lunar Cycle, Sunspots and the Frequency of Births
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ISSN 1864-4872 (online) ISBN 978-3-86788-257-6
Thomas K. Bauer, Stefan Bender, Jörg Heining, and Christoph M. Schmidt 1
Brother Sun, Sister Moon: The Lunar Cycle, Sunspots and the Frequency of Births Abstract Based on multivariate linear regression models, we analyze the effect of the lunar cycle and the number of sunspots occurring on a particular day on the number of births using social security data and controlling for a number of other potential confounders. The daily number of births between 1920 and 1989 have been calculated from the full sample of individuals who have been registered at least once in the German social security system. While the lunar cycle does not affect the number of births, the number of sunspots has a positive, albeit small effect on the number of births which is decreasing over time. The empirical results may be explained by medical technological progress making natural influences on births less important over time. This interpretation is supported by the results on the intertemporal influence of weekends and holidays on the frequency of daily births. JEL Classification: I12, J13 Keywords: Daily frequency of births; lunar cycle; sunspots November 2010
1 Thomas K. Bauer, RWI, Ruhr-Universität Bochum and IZA, Bonn; Stefan Bender, IAB Nürnberg; Jörg Heining, IAB Nürnberg; Christoph M. Schmidt, RWI, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, IZA, Bonn, and CEPR London. – We thank Christina Grabinger at the IAB for her support in the preparation of the data. – All correspondence to Thomas K. Bauer, RWI, Hohenzollernstr. 1-3, 45128 Essen, Germany, E-Mail:
[email protected].
Introduction ǡ
ǡ Ǥǡǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
ǡǡ
ǡǡ
Ǥ ȋͳȌ ȋʹȌ ȋ͵Ȍ ȋͶȌ ȋͷȌ ȋȌ ȋȌ ȋͺȌ
ǡ
ȋͻȌȋͳͲȌǡ
ȋͳͳȌǡȋͳʹȌǤǡǡ ǡǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥ
Ǥ
ǡǡ
ȋͳ͵ȌȋͳͶȌȋͳͷȌȋͳȌǡȋͳȌȋͳͺȌ
ȋȋͳ͵ȌȌǤ
ͳͻʹͲ ͳͻͻͲǤ
ǡ
Ǥ
Data and Methods Ȃ
ͳͻͷ ʹͲͲͺ
ȋͳͻȌǤ
ǡ
Ǥ
ͳǤͶ
ͳͻʹͲ ͳͻͺͻǡ ʹͷǡͷͺ Ǥ ǡ
ȋǣȀȀ
ǤǤȀǦȀǤȌǡ
ǡ
ȋǣȀȀǤǤǤȀȀǤȌǤ ǡ
ͺ
Ǥ 4
01/01/1960
01/01/1970
01/01/1980
01/01/1990
01/01/1960
01/01/1970
01/01/1980
01/01/1990
01/01/1950
01/01/1940
01/01/1930
01/01/1920
0
100
200
Number of sunspots
300
400
Figure 1:ǡͳͻʹͲȂͳͻͺͻ
Year
01/01/1950
01/01/1940
01/01/1930
01/01/1920
1000
2000
3000
Number of births
4000
5000
Figure 2:
Year
ͳ
Ǥ
ͳͳǦ
ǡǦ
Ǥ ȋʹͲȌǡʹͷͺͻ 5
͵ͷͷ
ʹͶʹͷ
ͳͻͷǤ ʹ
Ǥ
ͳͻͶͲǡ ǡ
ǡ
ͳͻͲǡ
ǡǡ
Ǥ ʹͶͲͲǡͺʹ͵ ͷʹͷͲǤ
ǡ
ȋǡ ǡ
ȌǤ
Ǥ ǡǡ
Ǧ
Ǥ ȋʹͳȌ
ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ͻ
ǡ
Ǧ Ǥ
Results Ǧ ȋʹʹȌ
ȋ͵Ȍ
Ǥ
ȋͻͷΨ
Ȍ
ͶǤ
Ǥ
͵ Ͷ
ǡ ͳ ͳͻʹͲͳͻͺͻȋ
ȋͳȌȌ
ͳͻʹͲͳͻͶͻǡͳͻͷͲͳͻͻǡͳͻͲͳͻͺͻ ȋ
ȋʹȌ ȋͶȌȌǤ
͵ ͶǤ
Ǥ
Ǧǡ
Ǥ 6
6.5
Logarithm of Number of Births 7 7.5 8
8.5
Figure 3:
New Moon
First Quarter
Full Moon
Last Quarter
6.5
Logarithm of Number of Births 7 7.5 8
8.5
Figure 4:
0
1
2 Number of Sunspots (in 100)
3
4
7
Table 1: Ǣǣ
ȋͳȌ
ȋʹȌ ͳͻʹͲǦͳͻͶͻ
ȋ͵Ȍ ͳͻͷͲǦͳͻͻ
ȋͶȌ ͳͻͲǦͳͻͺͻ
ͲǤͲͲ͵ͳȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͷȌ
ͲǤͲͲͺȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͶȌ
ͲǤͲͲͲͺ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͷȌ
ͲǤͲͲͲͺ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲͲͷ ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͵Ȍ ǦͲǤͲͲͲͳ ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͵Ȍ ǦͲǤͲͲͳ͵ ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͵Ȍ
ǦͲǤͲͲͳͷ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͲȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͳ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͲȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͳͳ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͲȌ
ǦͲǤͲͲͳͲ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͷȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͲͻ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͷȌ ǦͲǤͲͲʹͶȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͷȌ
ͲǤͲͲͳ͵ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ͲǤͲͲ͵Ͳȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ͲǤͲͲͲʹ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ
ǦͲǤͲͶͷͷȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͺͺȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͲͶ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ͲǤͲͳͲͲȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ͲǤͲͳͻȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ǦͲǤͲͳͺȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ
ͲǤͲͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹȌ ǦͲǤͲͳͳͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹȌ ǦͲǤͲͳ͵ȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹȌ ͲǤͲͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹȌ ͲǤͲͳͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹȌ ͲǤͲʹȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹȌ
ǦͲǤͲʹ͵͵ȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͻȌ ǦͲǤͲͲʹ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͻȌ ǦͲǤͲͲʹ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͻȌ ͲǤͲͳͳͻȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͻȌ ͲǤͲͳͻͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͻȌ ͲǤͲͳͲͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͻȌ
ǦͲǤʹͲͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͳȌ ǦͲǤͲͳͳͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͳȌ ͲǤͲʹʹȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͳȌ ǦͲǤͲͲʹͺ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͳȌ ͲǤͲͳͷͺȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͳȌ ǦͲǤͳͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͳȌ
ͲǤͳʹͳͲȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͻͲȌ ǦͲǤͲ͵ͷͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͶȌ ǦͲǤͲʹͻȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͷ͵Ȍ ǦͲǤͲͶʹͲȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͶȌ ǦͲǤͲ͵ʹ͵ȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͲʹȌ ͲǤͲͲͳͶ ȋͲǤͲͳͲͲȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͻ ȋͲǤͲͲͶȌ Ǥͻͳͷȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͶͶȌ ͲǤ͵ͻ ȏͲǤͳͲȐ ʹͷǡͷͺ ͲǤͻͷͻ
ͲǤͳͳͲͲȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͳ͵ͷȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͲͷ ȋͲǤͲͲͳȌ ǦͲǤͲͲͲʹ ȋͲǤͲͲͺͲȌ ͲǤͲʹͶͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͺͳȌ ͲǤͲ͵͵ͻȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͻȌ ͲǤͲ͵ͳͻ ȋͲǤͲʹʹͷȌ ͲǤͲͲͶ ȋͲǤͲͳͺȌ ǤͻͷͲͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͲȌ ͲǤʹͻ ȏͲǤͺ͵͵ͺȐ ͳͲǡͻͷͺ ͲǤͻͷͷʹ
ͲǤʹͳͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͲͲȌ ǦͲǤͲʹͷͻȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͷʹȌ ǦͲǤͲͳͻʹȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͻȌ ǦͲǤͲʹͶͺȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͲȌ ǦͲǤͲͳͻʹȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͲͳȌ ͲǤͲʹͺȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͲͲȌ ͲǤͲͲͷ ȋͲǤͲͲͶȌ Ǥͻͻͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵͵Ȍ ͲǤͻ͵ ȏͲǤͶʹͷȐ ǡ͵Ͳͷ ͲǤͺͺͷͶ
ͲǤͲͶʹȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͲͺȌ ǦͲǤͲͻȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͷȌ ǦͲǤͲͷͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͶȌ ǦͲǤͳͷͻͶȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͶȌ ǦͲǤͳͲȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͲͻȌ ǦͲǤͲʹͳȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͳͲͺȌ ǦͲǤͲ͵ʹȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲȌ ǤͷʹͲʹȗȗȗ ȋͲǤͲͲͶͶȌ ͳǤͶͻ ȏͲǤʹͳͶȐ ǡ͵Ͳͷ ͲǤͺͻ͵ͺ
Moonphases Weekdays Holidays
ȋ α ααͲȌ ȏδ Ȑ ʹ
ǣǢȗȗȗǣ
ͳΨǢȗȗǣ
ͷΨǢȗǣ
ͳͲΨǤ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ȋͳȌ ͳǡ
Ͳǡ ǡ
ͲǤͲͲʹΨȂ ȂͷǤǡ
8
ǤǦǦ
ͲǤͲͲͶΨͳͻͷͲǡ
ͲǤͲͲͲͷΨͳͻͷͲǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥ
Ǥ ǡ ȋ
ȋͳȌ ͳȌǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ
Ǥ ǡ ͳͻͷͲ ͶǤΨ ǡ ͳͻͲͳͻͺͲʹͲǤΨǤ ǤʹǤͶΨ ͳͻʹͲ ͳͻͶͻǡ ͳΨ ͳͻͲͳͻͺͻǤ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
ͳ ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ Ǥ
ͳͻʹͲͳͻͲǤ ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ ʹ
ͻͷΨͳͻͷͲǡ ͺͻΨ ͳͻͲͳͻͺͲǤ
Discussion
ǡ
Ǥǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ ǡ
Ǥ
Ǥ
ͳͻʹͲ ͳͻͺͻǤ
ǡ
Ǥ ǡ
9
ǡǤǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡǤǤǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥǡ
Ǥ ǡ ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ ǡ
Ǥ ǯ
ǡ ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ
Ǥ
ǡ ǡ
Ǥ
10
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Ǥ
. ʹͲͲͷǢͳͻʹȋȌǣ ͳͻͲǦ͵Ǥ ǤNalepka, Claire D., Jones, Susan L. and Jones, Paul K.ǡǡ
ǤIssues in Comprehensive Pediatric Nursing. ͳͻͺ͵ǢȋʹȌǣͺͳǦͻǤ ͺǤWitter, F. R.
Ǥ
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ǤBMJ. ʹͲͲͲǢ͵ʹͳǣʹ͵Ǧ͵ͲǤ ͳͲǤChapman, Simon and Morrell, Stephen.ǫ
ǤBMJ. ʹͲͲͲǢ͵ʹͳǣʹ͵Ǧ͵ͲǤ ͳͳǤThakur, C. P. and Sharma, Dilip. ǤBMJ. ͳͻͺͶǢʹͺͻȋͶͲȌǣͳͺͻȂͻͳǤ ͳʹǤPayne, S. R., et al.
ǣ
ǫ BMJ. ͳͻͺͻǢʹͻͻȋͳͷȌǣͳͷͲȂʹ ͳ͵ǤRandall, Walter.
ǡͳͻͻͳͻǤBiological Rhythm ResearchǡͳͶͶǦͶͳͻǤ ͳͻͺǢͳͺȋͶȌǣʹʹǦͶʹ ͳͶǤȄǤ
ͳͻ͵ͳͻͺͲǤBiological Rhythm ResearchǡͳͶͶǦͶͳͻǤͳͻͺͺǢ ͳͻȋͳȌǣͳǦͳͷ ͳͷǤȄǤǣ
Ǥ . ͳͻͻͲǢ͵ͶȋͳȌǣͶʹǦͶͺǤ ͳǤȄǤǦ
Ǥ ǤͳͻͻͳǢ͵ͷȋͳȌǣ͵͵ǦͺǤ ͳǤLowell, Walter E. and Davis Jr., George E.ǣ
Ǥ. ʹͲͲͺǢͲȋ͵ȌǣͷͲͳǦǤ ͳͺǤȄǤ
ͷͲǣ
ǤǤʹͲͳͲǢͷȋͳȌǣͳǦʹͷǤ 11
ͳͻǤBender, Stefan, Haas, Anette and Klose, Christoph.IAB Employment Subsample 1975-1995 - opportunities for analysis provided by the anonymised subsample. ǣ ǡʹͲͲͲǤ
ǤͳͳǤ ʹͲǤGnevyshev, M. N.ͳͳǦ
ǤSolar Physics. ͳͻǢͷͳȋͳȌǣ ͳͷǦͺ͵Ǥ ʹͳǤMacFarlane, A. ǤBMJ. ͳͻͺǡǤʹǡǤͳͲǦͳ͵Ǥ ʹʹǤMitchell, Michael N.A Visual Guide to Stata Graphics. ʹǤǡǣ ǡʹͲͲͺǤ
12