building blocks of iron silk road and suggestions for ...

BUILDING BLOCKS OF IRON SILK ROAD AND SUGGESTIONS FOR TURKEY Özlem Koçtaş Çotur1, F. Onur Uysal2 Abstract ⎯ To revitalize ancient Silk Road is a dream for not only former Soviet Union members but also China, Russia, and Turkey. The new Silk Road is called Iron Silk Road which is the railway connection between China and Europe. China has been heavily investing to create alternative rail transportation routes to dominate rail traffic across Eurasia. And Russia and Kazakhstan are spending great effort to have shares from these alternative routes. They both not only investing in new railroad infrastructure but also redesigning the transshipment processes to decrease transit time to gain competitive advantage. Turkey has a crossroad position and targets for being a railway hub. Turkey invests in a number of projects to strength its position, such as Marmaray and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. The aim of the study is twofold, firstly explaining the current situation of Iron Silk Road and its ongoing endeavors and giving some suggestions for Turkey. Keywords ⎯ Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, Iron Silk Road, Marmaray, One Road One Belt Policy

INTRODUCTION China is known as homeland of some important inventions, such as silk, paper, tea, porcelain, gunpowder, compass, printing and chemistry. Spreading these products and production methods across the world makes China a leading merchandiser since ancient times. The route, which China and other Asian countries had used for “a hub of exchange of goods, culture and technology between East and West”, was called “Silk Road” [19]. The ancient “Silk Road”, was originated from China and was in use between third century B.C and fifteenth century A.D. [5]. Silk Road, was not a single route, instead of this, it comprised of several alternative land and sea routes [19]. The Silk Road, which named by Ferdinand von Richthofen in mid-1800s [5], was the main commercial route for the trade emanated from China to reach mainly Asia Minor (Today Turkey), Middle East and Persia (Today Iran). Camel caravans and some sea routes on the shores of Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea had used to reach western recipients. The dynamics of Silk Road region’s trade had changed as a consequence of collapsing some empires and establishment of new ones; beginning of “The Age of Discovery” and the advent of new transportation modes, therefore, the Silk Road became obsolete for centuries. Dissolution of former Soviet Union causes to born independent states such as: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. These countries suffered some economic obstacles because of broken trade links during their adaptation to being independent. They located geographically 1

Özlem Koçtaş Çotur, Yasar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Logistics Management, Izmir, Turkey, [email protected] 2

F. Onur Uysal, Rail Turkey, Istanbul, Turkey, [email protected] © XIII. International Logistics and Supply Chain Congress October 22-23, 2015, Izmir, TURKIYE

distant in central Asia and this situation causes some degree of isolation of the region. Oil, gas and mining sectors has boosted several central Asian country, in spite of this transport costs are high because of crossing multiple land borders and the lack of opportunity to use maritime transportation. To overcome the negative effects of remoteness and strengthen links to the international markets, a transformation had needed in transportation infrastructure [19]. Landlocked countries have primarily three options for transporting goods; rail, road and air, namely. Air transportation is the most expensive mode and not suitable for several type of freight. By comparison with the road transportation, rail transportation is cheaper in long distance; has better environmental and safety records [7] and more resistant to weather conditions. Consequently investing in rail transportation is the most effective option for landlocked countries. The need of reviving legendary Silk Road is a shared wisdom for not only former Soviet Union members but also China, Russia, and Turkey. A mutually agreed belief within these countries is, 21 st century Silk Road has to connect via railways. Because of this, the new Silk Road has named as “Iron Silk Road”. Iron Silk Road comprises of several existing rail route alternatives and ongoing ones between China and Europe as a whole. However there is no consensus between either in academia or in policymakers about the whole scope of Iron Silk Road. In this study it is accepted that, Iron Silk Road is any railway network connecting China and Europe via several alternative routes. Any of these routes aligning to connect China to Europe such as Trans-Asian Railway (TAR), Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), Trans-China Railway, Baku-Tblisi-Kars (BTK) is a part of Iron Silk Road, are accepted as links of Iron Silk Road. The scope of the study is revealing the steps taken by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey to revitalize the ancient Silk Road, or in today’s context “Iron Silk Road”, and finally sharing some suggestions for Turkey.

IRON SILK ROAD(S) Although the ancient Silk Road is known as the route connecting Far East to Mediterranean Sea, the Iron Silk Road is now understood as the railway connection between China and Europe. Different than the ancient times, the new roads are mainly differentiated on the departure point in Far East. There are 3 frequently-used railway connections between Far East and Europe which are shown in Figure 1, Figure 2 and Figure 3 respectively. Korea/Japan Route Mainly supported by sea connections from South Korea, Shanghai and Japan. The distance from Vostochny Port (Russia) to Brest (the border terminal between Belarus and Poland) is 10090 km. 9500 km of the total route is in Russia, mainly using Trans-Siberian railway (+1300 km for Duisburg/Germany). This route thas the advantage of having only one break-of-gauge, but also is longer compared with the others [14].

© XIII. International Logistics and Supply Chain Congress October 22-23, 2015, Izmir, TURKIYE

Figure 1. Korea/Japan Route Source: railturkey.org North China Route Mainly serving to northern regions of China (Changchun, Shenyang, Beijing etc). Route passes from China to Russia using the Manzhouli/Zabaikalsk border stations. There are two break-of-gauges on this route, between China-Russia and Belarus-Poland. The route is 8600 km from Changchun to Brest using again the Trans-Siberian railway. This route is mainly used for the Northeast China. Due to effective improvements especially in Trans-Siberian railway by Russian Railways, this route improved very fastly and got the biggest share in recent years [14].

Figure 2. North China Route Source: railturkey.org West China Route This route is mainly used by central regions (Chongqing etc) and north-west part (Urumqi etc) of China. The route used Dostyk border station in China/Kazakh border, and follows Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus to reach to Brest border station of Belarus. Similar to North China route, there are two break-of-gauges on this line. One is at China-Kazakhstan border. Other is at Belarus-Poland border. The distance to Brest is 5750 km from Urumqi (+3200 km from Chongqing). This route has been supported by China’s “One Belt, One Road” program, which is also aiming © XIII. International Logistics and Supply Chain Congress October 22-23, 2015, Izmir, TURKIYE

to develop inner regions of China. Kazakhstan also heavily invested in improving the transit rail traffic which is helping this route to be competitive and faster. Thus, many of the new train services between China and Europe has selected this route to run on [14].

Figure 3. North China Route Source: railturkey.org

The trains running on these routes are generally organized by the consortiums of European, Russian and Chinese companies. The routes are becoming even more efficient with the recently started eastward (from Europe to Far East) load flow. In 2014, 3 regular train services were announced to start, which will prevent trains running empty towards China [15]. Since the first trials from China to Europe in 2007, the train services become regular, more frequent and faster (15 days) in the following years. Trains are faster than sea and cheaper than air transport. Especially for the goods with a certain value, rail is the best solution. Especially electronic industry, retail and machinery sectors benefit from the rail advantages. Transit time for the speed train service is 14 days for Suzhou–Warszawa, 15 days for Suzhou–Hamburg and 16 days for Suzhou–Duisburg. The container traffic by rail between China and Europe reached to about 100 000 TEU in 2014 [22].

WHO IS DOING WHAT FOR IRON SILK ROAD? China The deep rooted tradition of trade might bring China its today’s position in global economy. China is the world’s biggest merchandise trader with imports and exports US $ 4,159 billion in total according to Word Trade Organization’s (WTO) statistics in 2013 [26]. According to data provided by European Union (EU) trade statistics, trade from China to EU member countries is worth 302,579 million Euros. From EU to China is worth 164,730 million Euros, which is totally equals 467,309 million Euros. China is the ranked as top trading partner according to imports to EU [4]. The container traffic between China and Europe is worth approximately 20 million TEU (twenty foot © XIII. International Logistics and Supply Chain Congress October 22-23, 2015, Izmir, TURKIYE

equivalent unit) annually, and mainly has carried via maritime transportation [14]. However the share of rail transportation, which is also a “container friendly” transportation mode, between China and Europe is still in its infancy. China’s transportation system need to keep pace with economic growth of the country, thus several projects has been under development. China, as the trade leader of the Asia, elaborates existing transportation corridors thoroughly and develops projects to create alternative interconnected transport corridors across Eurasia. Intermodal accessibility is also an important issue to promote the expansion of underdeveloped regions of the country. Providing intermodal access to China’s less developed western regions; greenfield maritime ports; fostering freight mobility and intermodal connectivity is essential to support global competitiveness of the country [20]. Maritime transportation has been using to connect from China to Europe predominantly over the years, which has approximately 90% share of China’s foreign trade. However new diversified overland routes has needed between Asia-Europe for several reasons. Some problems has been occurred in land access to sea ports, which is encouraging to use intermodal solutions/rail connection; such as maritime traffic has been rising; risk of accidents increasing on ports and security problems might be occur. China has been developing several arteries- not only to increase connectivity to Europe but also to promote economic integration via transportation corridors to reach Eurasian landmass and all its major peninsular extremities [6]. To ensure that, China has been launching a new concept called “One Belt, One Road” to revive ancient silk road again by using rail and maritime transportation instead of ancient Silk Road’s camel caravans. China’s one of the main strategy is to become a policy maker in the integration process of Eurasia. To realize this, several steps has been taken by Chinese government. One of them is the establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as a multilateral development bank to support infrastructure projects across Asia. The other is, the launch of One Belt One Road policy. The policy consists of two projects namely “the Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” designed to tie 65 countries and 4.4 billion people together and to create prosperity and opportunities [6]. The policy is considered as a part of China’s Greater Neighborhood Policy and has announced in 2013 [5]. According to plans of China, from the Atlantic to the Pacific region will be connected through The Silk Road Economic Belt. The policy is not only to develop a large-scale regional strategy; “One Belt” involves nine regions, while “One Road” involves six regions of China; but also to enhance cooperation with neighboring economies. It is expected that the policy may result in a massive cross-border infrastructure development in countries located along the “belt” and the “road”. To enhance regional connectivity by means of transportation, energy supply and telecommunication infrastructure Chinese companies has been promoting by government to invest in neighboring economies [10]. One belt is very similar to “Iron Silk Road” concept however China has developed “Economic Belt” policy to differentiate its vision from other Asian countries.


Russia Russia is the main actor of China-Europe transportation network connection for land access. All three routes are passing through Russia, and Russian Railways was the first operator in region to improve its infrastructure and operations and get ready for fast and regular rail services. Russian Railways (RZD) had set a road map for connecting east to west, not limited with transit traffic, but also to improve the economic ties within the country. One of the main targets of this road map was to run the freight on 9349-km-long Trans-Siberian railway in less than seven days, and in 2013 it’s achieved. It must be noted that most of the improvements were not “infrastructure investments” but process improvements like decreasing the number and time for crew changes, locomotive changes and technical inspections [9]. Russian Railways also reorganized its systems for CIM (Uniform Rules Concerning the Contract of International Carriage of Goods by Rail) /SMGS (Agreement on International Goods Transport by Rail) common waybill (consignment note) to ensure seamless travel for rail freight transports between Europe, Russia and Asia all with a single freight document. CIM /SMGS consignment note combines the required CIM and SMGS contracts of carriage into one document [3] and simplifies the documentation and speeds up border crossings. All these efforts ended up with a 900 km daily speed which is faster than any other country in the region [9]. Russia’s efforts on “silk road” is not limited with “Europe-China connection”. Russian company Far East Land Bridge (FELB), which is running the biggest portion of container trains between China and Europe, is now getting prepared for a new container train between Suzhou (China) and Poti (Georgia). This train, if runs regularly as declared, may be the precessor of China-Turkey train, which will come very close to Turkish border and will provide truck connections to Turkey after Poti [24].

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan is another country which succeeds in becoming an important player in transit cargo traffic between Asia and Europe. Kazakhstan Railways (Kazakhstan Temir Zholy-KTZ) has ambitious targets both to get more share from China-Europe traffic and create new traffic in north-south direction. Therefore Kazakhstan has been investing in new rail connections to change the dominance of Russian rail network [2]. Kazakh’s investments include: increasing handling capacity of Dostyk (Kazakhstan-China border station) up to 25 million tonnes by the end of 2015; opening new railway border crossing at Khorgos; opening new free economic zones and terminals within the country and constructing 1500-km-long railway lines in east-west and north-south transport corridors [12]. Railroads were built to northward into Russia and it was almost impossible to travel along east-west direction of Kazakhstan without a stop in Moscow [8]. According to Kazakh’s aforementioned targets several steps has been taken by KTZ. The opening of Zhezkazgan-Beyneu and Arkalyk-Shubarkol railway lines in 2014 was one of the biggest investments along Iron Silk Road. The Zhezkazgan-Beyneu connection will optimize current distance from the east to the west at least 1000 km for cargo transported from China to Caspian Sea [11]. Shubarkol – Arkalyk railway, which is located south-north direction provides a connection from central to northern Kazakhstan. That line may be an alternative route to currently used China-Russia-Europe connection via Astana [16].


According to the head of KTZ, start of the new railroads will not only give an impulse to development of the Central and Western Kazakhstan, but also will increase the transit potential of the trans Kazakhstan transport corridors passing from China in the direction of Russia and further Europe [11].Together with the rail connection to Turkmenistan which was opened early 2015, Aktau, Kazakhstan city at Caspian Sea, will be one of the most important railway hub in the region. These lines and Aktau Port now becomes the best alternative to host the China-Turkey services, if realized. Kazakhstan’s increasing capabilities and importance in Iron Silk Road fully fits the China’s developing program for its western regions. Thus, Kazakhstan became the most critical partner for China in its “One Belt, One Road” program. Two countries had agreed on developing transport and logistics infrastructure, the expansion of cross-border power stations, building the supply chains with the establishment of dry ports, centers of distribution and consolidation of cargo flows [13].

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan is trying to reduce its geographical isolation by expanding its railway network to its neighbors. The biggest railway investment in Turkmenistan in recent years was 700-km-long GyzylgayaBereket-Etrek railway which connects Kazakhstan to Iran via Turkmenistan. The connection will shorten the route by 400 km, and reduce freight transport time from 45-60 days at present to 25-30 days. This new line is expected to the transport corridor for 13 million tons of grain of Kazakhstan to Persian Gulf countries [21]. Turkmenistan’s another important effort is for Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan rail line project (TAT). Turkmenistan may benefit from connecting these “no-railway” regions to Caspian Sea, and to Black Sea and Turkey via Azerbaijan and Georgia. Thus, Turkmenistan Government is giving priority to this project [18]. Turkmenistan is willing to be the main link of Central Asia to Black Sea (and to Turkey after Baku-TbilisiKars railway completed), thus constructing a huge port at Turkmenbashi which will provide huge capacity for intermodal and rail transportation [25].

Iran Iran had declared its interest in increasing transit loads. Iran is willing to be the main link to ports for landlocked Central Asian countries. This will provide Iran to transport and handle the huge amount of exports of especially Kazakhstan. Additionally, Iran is expecting to reduce the effects of sanctions with this strategy. The new connection to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, opened last year, was an important step to realize these expectations. Uzen-Bereket-Gorgan Railway may be the main connection of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Persian Gulf ports. Iran is also working on new rail connections to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Iraq. Iran is expecting to earn 285 million USD annually from rail fees of transit loads by the completion of the project. Iran also declared that country will be more active about transit loads and may review transit tariffs [25]. Turkey Turkey has a unique strategic position for not only locating in Both Asia and Europe, but also connecting the continents via its to bridges and Marmaray under sea railway tunnel. © XIII. International Logistics and Supply Chain Congress October 22-23, 2015, Izmir, TURKIYE

Turkey is also one of the countries in the region with ambitious targets about international railway traffic and investing for these targets. Marmaray, is the biggest investment of Turkey for connecting Europe to Asia. “The continuous rail connection from United Kingdom to China is now possible” was the main motto in the opening ceremony of Marmaray, and the project was presented as the realization of Iron Silk Road. Marmaray will enable a continuous run of trains between Europe and Asia via Turkey, which otherwise have to be (and currently are being) transshipped by rail ferries running between Tekirdag and Derince. Although the frequent passenger service through Marmaray tunnel is not allowing any freight train to cross during day, Turkish State Railways (TCDD), is planning to allow freight trains run after mid-night. This will be only possible by the completion of second phase of Marmaray Project, which is expected by the end of 2016. Although the trains are able to cross Europe to Asia (and vice versa) by Tekirdağ-Derince rail ferry and can reach to Central Asia and China via Iran, all expectations seem to be built on Marmaray and Baku-TbilisiKars (BTK) railway. TCDD is expecting to boost its transit and international rail traffic –which is now very small among neighborhood- after the completion of these two projects. Marmaray will ease, speed up and encourage the usage of terminals in Asian side and even further transport to Middle East. Today, most of the trains coming from Europe, stop at the European side terminals (Cerkezköy, Tekirdağ) and trucks are used for further transport. Usage of rail ferries means additional costs, longer transit times and uncertainty. Some of the freight trains can bear with these, but surely none of the passanger trains could. Thus, travel from Europe to Asia by train should wait Marmaray (or the ongoing 3rd Bosphorus Bridge with railway line). The other important project of Turkey for “Iron Silk Road” is Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project. This line will be the first rail connection to Georgia and Azerbaijan, but be an alternative link to other CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and China, since there is already a rail connection via Iran. This project involves modernization of 721-km-long railway line from Baku (Azerbajian) to Akhalkalaki (Georgia) and construction of 105-km-long new line from Akhalkalaki to Kars. The modernization works have already been completed and the project is now waiting for the construction of the last 105 km which is being done and funded by Turkish Government. This project is announced to be completed by the end of 2015 [23]. The BTK project is built to create an energy corridor by rail mainly supplied by Azerbaijan. In addition to that, the current traffic from Turkey to CIS countries will shift to this line. Since current traffic via Iran is facing with long delays in Van Lake and Saraks, opening of this line may cause a shift to railway. The line is expected to have an annual volume of 6,5 million tonnes at the beginning. Target is 17 million tonnes/year in long term [23]. Opening of BTK railway will surely be a better and faster way to connect to China. The alternate way via Iran means dealing with sanctions, crossing many countries, stoppage at each border [17]. Countries of Central Asia also invest for further connections and expect to have share from this route. As aforementioned before, Kazakhstan has just completed a west-east rail connection which may be a strong alternative for connection Turkey to China via Caspian Sea [16].Turkmenistan is constructing a huge port at Turkmenbashi which will support intermodal transport through Caspian Sea to Turkey. Even Afghanistan with almost no rail network has also announced interest in this project. One the most important expected effect of the BTK is to finish Russian rail domination in Caucasus [1].


Although Turkey’s two projects have full support from the government, completion of both projects has been postponed many times due to several reasons. Marmaray’s second phase was planned to be completed by 2015 summer, but all construction works stopped for more than one year. Then a new plan with a deadline of end of 2016 was announced, but no improvement is seen since then. BTK railway has not better performance. The construction works stopped last year, and no improvement is seen since then. The modernization of lines in Georgia and Azerbaijan had been completed and a test train already ran, so project is waiting for completion of the part under the responsibility of Turkey. Construction works were scheduled for the first half of 2015, but not realized. So the deadline for Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway to be fully commissioned, which is end of 2015, may be postponed again.

Suggestions for Turkey To boost Turkey’s rail share for transit cargo across Iron Silk Road some propositions are given below. 1. Turkey should start to use CIM/SMGS common consignment note, same as Russia, to connect European and Asian countries seamlessly. 2. Baku-Tbilisi-Kars project is one of the important project for not only to the Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but also all neighborhood region likewise China. Turkey should speed up the construction as soon as possible. 3. Determining transit time targets for container trains running in Turkey and following them to proof the reliability of the rail service. 4. Investing in container transshipment terminals on the transit corridor of Turkey and Georgia (Akhalkalaki, Kars, Sivas, Kayseri, Eskisehir, Köseköy) to ease the transshipment of inter-regional cargo. To assess the performance of the terminals, KPIs (Key performance Indicators) should be determined in terms of cost, service times, capacity, and professional management. 5. TCDD and Turkish government should cooperate with logistics companies who are interested in giving rail services on Iron Silk Road route via signing SLAs (service level agreements) with them. 6. Turkish government should subsidize projects/block trains on Silk Road via discounts for a period of time to support entering costs of Iron Silk Road projects. 7. To ensure connectivity to ports, government and private sector should invest in branch lines to connect ports to main line which can be integrated with Silk Road services. 8. Enabling of using of CIS wagons by changing the axles within Turkey to ensure interrupted journey between CIS countries.

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