Mar 11, 2017 - 14-year monthly Catch per Unit Effort (CpUE) of SPF catch data provided by Muncar. Fishing Port (Bali Strait) and South Java. ⢠14-year ...
INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM DRIVERS OF DYNAMICS OF SMALL PELAGIC FISH RESOURCES MARCH 6-11, 2017 VICTORIA, CANADA
Catch dynamics of small pelagic fishes at Bali Strait & South Java Sea in relation to the climatic regime shift: case study on Sardinella lemuru Aida Sartimbul, Erfan Rohadi, Defri Yona, Hideaki Nakata, Jogi Arleston, Iwan T Wibowo, Kirana F Setiabudi, Kharisma W Sesanti Marine Science Resources Exploration and Management Research Group Marine Science Dept. of Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia Information Management, State Polytechnic of Malang, Indonesia Fisheries Faculty, Nagasaki University, Japan
Outline: • • • • • • • • •
Introduction Objective Data and Methods Result and Discussion Small Pelagic Fish CPUE Trend Seasonal Variation Inter-annual Variation Regime Shift Summary
Background S. Lemuru (SPF) main species target of Bali Strait (80-90%), followed by Decapterus spp. and Euthynus spp. (Merta et al., 1995; Hendiarti et al, 2005) S. Lemuru supporting public health ( >25% of total sardine oil were contained omega-3 fatty acid) (Sartimbul et al., 2015) It was disappeared in 2010 to 2012 it gave impact on economics loss mainly for coastal community Limited study related to the SPF dynamics and its relation to the climate change and regime shift in Indonesia……….
Objectives Understanding the variability of SPF catch Understanding the SPF catch composition and its relation to the oceanographic features Understanding the SPF catch variability in relation to the regime shift and climate variability
Introduction
Material and Methods
Result and Discussion
Conclusion
1st Station : 1140 26’ 11” BT 08 27’ 14” LS 2nd Station : 1140 34’ 43” BT 08 37’ 08” LS 3rd Station : 1140 40’16 BT 08 42’ 18” LS (Fishing Ground at Bali Strait
Study Area
Temperature and Clorophyl-a Insitu Data : June – December 2013 Temperature and Clorophyl-a Satellite Data : February 2002 - April 2015 Introduction
Material and Methods
Result and Discussion
Conclusion
Sampling site of South Java (Fishing ground of S. lemuru)
• 14-year monthly Catch per Unit Effort (CpUE) of SPF catch data provided by Muncar Fishing Port (Bali Strait) and South Java • 14-year monthly satellite Aqua MODIS data of SST & Chl-a (2002-2015) (www.modis.gsfc.nasa.gov). • Monthly temp. and Chl-a Insitu Data were collected using AAQ Alec Japan (Jun – Dec 2013) • Plankton data were sampled on June-Dec, 2013 • Anomalies, standardization, statistics, and Regime shift detection (Rodionov, 2005) methods were applied in this study • Nino 3.4 and IOD were used as Climate index (NOAA, 2007)
Data and Methods
Insitu and Satellite Temperature Data Verification
No.
Model 1
R
R Square a
,945
,894
Adjusted R Square ,872
Date of Data Retrieval
Insitu Data
1
June 15, 2013
(0C) 30,00
2
July 20, 2013
3
Satellite Data (0C)
difference
29,34
(0C) 0,66
29,40
28,72
0,68
August 20, 2013
29,10
28,22
0,88
4
September 21, 2013
28,90
27,94
0,96
5
October 16, 2013
29,00
28,41
0,59
6
November 12, 2013
29,30
28,75
0,55
7
December 11, 2013
30,00
30,02
-0,02
Maximum Value
30,02
Minimum Value
27,94
Std. Error of the Estimate ,25324
Temp.
RESULT & DISCUSSION
Clorophyl-a Data Verification Date of
No.
Model
R
1
,951a
R Square
Adjusted R Square
,904
,885
Retrieval Data
Insitu
Satellite
Chl-a
Data
Data
difference
(mg/m3) 0,18
(mg/m3) -0,01
1
Jun 15, 2013
(mg/m3) 0,17
2
Jul 20, 2013
1,38
1,41
-0,04
3
Aug 20, 2013
2,04
2,22
-0,18
4
Sep 21, 2013
2,13
1,98
0,14*
5
Nov 16, 2013
1,14
1,26
-0,12
6
Nov 12, 2013
0,70
1,05
-0,36
7
Dec 11, 2013
0,64
0,38
0,26*
Maximum Value
2,13
Minimum Value
0,17
Std. Error of the Estimate ,24738
a. Predictors: (Constant), suhusatelitMODIS
Introduction
Material and Methods
Result and Discussion
Conclusion
Fish Catch landed in Bali Strait
Total Catch (Ton)
• Total Fish Catch in Bali Strait 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
Total Catch
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Persentage (%)
Sardinella lemuru 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
2002
Decapterus spp
2003
2004
2005
2006
Euthynnus spp
2007
2008
2009
• Percentage Fish Dominant Landed in Bali Strait
2010
Other Fish
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
6000.00
Transition I
5000.00
4191.00 4000.00 4163.64 3000.00 2000.00 1000.00 0.00
SE Monsoon
3956.67 3104.78 2994.42
3085.68 2937.28 2507.86 2214.97 NW 1803.20 Monso on J
F
Seasonal variation
6086.50 5411.99
M
A
M
J
J
Transition II
A
S
O
N
D
SST
• Max. catches of S. lemuru occurs in Trans-1 Monsoon • It is 3-month after upwelling event during SE monsoon (Sartimbul et al., 2010) • Intensive upwelling the primarily production increases (Chl-a)
SST (DEG.C)
MONTH
31.00 30.0930.15 30.00 29.64 29.44 29.38 SE Monsoon 29.00 28.53 28.47 28.00 NW 27.24 27.08 27.00 Transition I 26.48 Monso 26.00 26.03 25.77 on 25.00 Transition II 24.00 23.00 J F M A M J J A S O N D MONTH
CHL-A (MG/M3)
CPUE S. LEMURU (KG)
S.lemuru
7000.00
1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
Chl-a Transition I
0.27 0.32 0.23 F
1.21 1.19
1.02
NW Monso on
J
1.47
M
0.83 SE Monsoon
0.50
A
1.09 1.08
M
J
J
MONTH
A
Transition II
S
O
N
0.50
D
Inter-annual SPF Catch Composition and Oceanographic variation (a)
SST
(b)
Chl-a
(c)
(d)
(e)
Inter-annual catch variation
Gambar 32. Trend Anomali Bulanan Suhu (a), Klorofil (b) dan Ikan Dominan yang Tertangkap (c - e) di Perairan Selat Bali
3
SST
2 1 0 -1 -2 3 2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chl-a
1 0 -1 -2 3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Nino 3.4
2 1 0 -1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
-2 3 2 1 0 -1 1 2 3 4 3 2 Decapterus spp 1 0 -1 -2 1 2 3 4 2 1
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
Warming year (La Nina 2010) lowest fish catch in Bali Strait
13
14
14
Euthynnus spp
0 -1 -2
Cooling year (El Nino 2006) peak fish catch of S. lemuru in Bali Strait
El Nino 2015 No consistency ???
S. lemuru
-2
Standardization parameters
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Why???
But…..
EL Nino 2006 DAN 2015 (Nasa, 2016)
Regime Shift on S.lemuru S.lemuru
RSI
STARS
Ano CPUE Lemuru
Warm
10000
0.5 0
0
Cool
-10000
-0.5
-20000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Tahun SST
RSI
-1
STARS
1
0.5
Warm
0.5
1 RS
0.25
0
0
-0.5 -1 2002
Regime Shift Index
1
20000
-0.25
Cool 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-0.5
RS detection (Rodinov, 2005): based on sequential T-test for RS (Sequential T-test Analysis of RS/ STAR)
NINO 3.4
RSI
STARS
0.25
Nino 3.4
1.5
0
0
-0.25
-1.5
-3 2002
Regime Shift Index
0.5
3
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-0.5
Tahun DMI
RSI
STARS
0.5
0.25
0
0
-0.5
-1 2002
1 RS
0.5
Regime Shift Index
Dipole Mode Index
1
-0.25
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 Tahun
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-0.5
Sartimbul et al., 2010: Cool year and peak season of S.lemuru after 3-month moving average
Case study BPF at South Java
EL-NINO 2006-2007/ Cool year 900000
0
FISH CATCH (KG)
800000
-0.2
700000 600000
-0.4
500000 -0.6
400000 300000
-0.8
200000
-1
100000 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun
Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des
Cakalang
Tongkol
Tuna
Baby Tuna
Suhu Permukaan Laut
-1.2
SUHU PERMUKAAN LAUT (0C)
0.2
1000000
1,000,000
1.8
900,000
1.6
FISH CATCH (KG)
800,000
1.4
700,000
1.2
600,000
1
500,000
0.8
400,000
0.6
300,000
0.4
200,000
0.2
100,000 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des Cakalang
Tongkol
Tuna
Baby Tuna
Suhu Permukaan Laut
0
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (0C)
La-Nina 2010-2011/ Warm year
Thermocline Variation
Some possible reason of S.lemuru dynamics at Bali Strait and South Java Sea….. 1. Three-months time lagged for S.lemuru Modified from Sartimbul et al., (2010): Progress in Oceanography (87), 168-174 M a n a g e m e n t 2. Regime shift of S.lemuru cool and warm period 3. Horizontal movement further north or south 4. Vertical migration deeper/shallower thermocline (La Nina/ El Nino)
Summary
1
• SPF composition were vary seasonally. • S.Lemuru (Trans-2), Decapterus spp (NW Monsoon), and Euthynnus spp (always appear in all seasons)
2
• 14-year fishing trends regime shift from seasonal to inter-annual variation • Change in fish composition from seasonal to interannual
3
• Cold year (ENSO and pIOD) in 2006-2007 S.lemuru reached peak catch • Warm year (La Nina) in 2010 – 2012, S.lemuru was lowest catch • El Nino 2015 low CPUE of S. lemuru may be caused by behavior of warmer El Nino
Introduction
Material and Methods
Result and Discussion
Conclusion
Future Task
1
• S.lemuru is important as key species of BPF lack of juvenile data
2
• Needed to develop new fishing ground map based on time lag and thermocline information
3
• Needed new climate index for Indonesia ocean system • Collaborations are welcome!
Introduction
Material and Methods
Result and Discussion
Conclusion
Thank you for your attention and contribution •
Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education of Indonesia • Brawijaya University • PICES
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
