centra E2003/17de 52pags - Centro de Estudios Andaluces

5 downloads 0 Views 942KB Size Report
Bailén, 50 - 41001 Sevilla. Tel: 955 055 210, Fax: 955 055 211 ...... Analysis for the Spanish Regions”, Óscar Bajo Rubio, Carmen Díaz. Roldán y M. Dolores ...
Documento de trabajo E2003/17

centrA:

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

The Effects of Common Advice on One-shot Traveler’s Dilemma Games: Explaining Behavior through an Introspective Model with Errors C. Monica Capra Susana Cabrera Rosario Gómez

centrA:

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

Las opiniones contenidas en los Documentos de Trabajo de centrA reflejan exclusivamente las de sus autores, y no necesariamente las de la Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces o la Junta de Andalucía. This paper reflects the opinion of the authors and not necessarily the view of the Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces (centrA) or the Junta de Andalucía.

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces (centrA) Bailén, 50 - 41001 Sevilla Tel: 955 055 210, Fax: 955 055 211 e-mail: [email protected] http://www.fundacion-centra.org DEPÓSITO LEGAL: SE-108-2002 ISSN: 1579-6663

centrA:

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces Documento de trabajo Serie Economía E2003/17

The Effects of Common Advice on One-shot Traveler’s Dilemma Games: Explaining Behavior through an Introspective Model with Errors1 C. Monica Capra

Susana Cabrera

Rosario Gómez

Washington and Lee University USA

Universidad de Málaga

Universidad de Málaga

RESUMEN

Para probar la robustez de un modelo de introspección con ruido se muestran los resultados de un experimento sobre el dilema del viajero en un solo período. Se comparan los resultados alcanzados por los jugadores cuando reciben el consejo previo de un experto en este juego, con los resultados obtenidos cuando no interviene la opinión del experto. El modelo describe un proceso, no de equilibrio, mediante el cual los jugadores toman decisiones con error en contextos de un solo período. Varias simulaciones muestran que las predicciones del modelo son consistentes con los datos experimentales. Palabras clave: teoría de juegos, introspección, experimentos, simulación, comportamientos con ruido.

ABSTRACT

We report results of single interaction Traveler’s Dilemma game experiments with and without expert advice to test the robustness of a model of noisy introspection. The model describes an out-of-equilibrium process with errors by which players reach a decision of what to do in strategic situations. By tracing the process by which players determine what to do, one can find a prediction for single interaction games. Simulations show that the model’s predictions are consistent with experimental data. Keywords: game theory, introspection, experiments, simulations, noisy behavior. JEL classification: C63, C72, C92. 1 This project was funded in part by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Culture (PB98-1402). We would like to thank Simon Anderson, Colin Camerer, Eliane Catilina, Miguel Costa-Gomez, Jacob Goeree, and Charlie Holt for their insightful comments and advice on earlier versions of the paper. All errors are ours. Please address correspondence to Rosario Gómez. E-mail: [email protected]. Tel.: +34 952-1312-51. Fax: +34 952-13-12-99.

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KH LGHD WKDW HFRQRPLF EHKDYLRU FDQ EH EHVW GHVFULEHG E\ PRGHOV RI LPSHUIHFW UDWLRQDOLW\ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH ZRUN RI +HUEHUW 6LPRQ      6LPRQ VXJJHVWHGWKDWGHFLVLRQVDUHVXEMHFWWRHUURUGXHWRFRVWVRIPDNLQJDFKRLFHRUVLPSO\GXH WRWKHODFNRIFRPSXWDWLRQDODELOLW\RUFRJQLWLYHOLPLWDWLRQV 7KHVH³FRQVWUDLQWV´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³«WR VHHN WR WDFNOH SURFHGXUDO TXHVWLRQV VHULRXVO\ LV WR FRPPLWRQHVHOIWRDQDWWHPSWWRPRGHOWKHWKLQNLQJSURFHVVHVRI WKHSOD\HUVH[SOLFLWO\´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

1

E2003/17

,Q WKLV SDSHU ZH SUHVHQW GDWD IURP RQHVKRW 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD JDPHV ILUVW LQWURGXFHGE\%DVX  WKDWFDQEHDFFXUDWHO\H[SODLQHGE\³DPRGHORILQWURVSHFWLRQ´ %LQPRUH  FDOOVDSURFHVVWKDWGHYHORSVDWWKHLQWURVSHFWLYHOHYHOVXFKDVWKLVRQHDQ HGXFWLYH OLEUDWLRQ ZKLFK FRQVLVWV RI UHDVRQLQJ FKDLQV , WKLQN WKDW \RX WKLQN WKDW , WKLQN«´:HFDOOWKLVSURFHVVWKH³LQWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVV´7KHLQWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVVFRQVLVW RIGHWHUPLQLQJZKDWDSOD\HUVKRXOGGRJLYHQVRPHSRVVLEOHDFWLRQVE\WKHRWKHUVDQGWKHQ FDOFXODWLQJ WKH RWKHUV¶ UHVSRQVH LWHUDWLYHO\ XQWLO D VWRSSLQJ UXOH LV VDWLVILHG7KHEHOLHIV WKDW GHWHUPLQH FKRLFH SUREDELOLWLHV DUH GHJHQHUDWH GLVWULEXWLRQV WKDW SXW DOO RI WKH SUREDELOLW\PDVVLQWRDVLQJOHSRLQW7KHFKRLFHSUREDELOLWLHVWKDWGHWHUPLQHWKHUHVSRQVHV IROORZ WKH ORJLW UXOH WKLV UXOH KDV WKH GHVLUDEOH SURSHUW\ WKDW UHVSRQVH SUREDELOLWLHV DUH D IXQFWLRQRIWKHSOD\HU¶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³LQWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\´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¶ EHOLHIVGRQRWKDYHWREHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHDFWLRQVJHQHUDWHGE\WKRVHEHOLHIVWKDWLVWKH LQWURVSHFWLYH PRGHO LV QRW DQ HTXLOLEULXP PRGHO  3UHVXPDEO\ HLWKHU D GHWHUPLQLVWLF HTXLOLEULXP RU D SUREDELOLVWLF HTXLOLEULXP ZRXOG DULVH IURP OHDUQLQJ DQG SUHYLRXV H[SHULHQFHEXWWKHVHDUHQRWSRVVLEOHLQRXUFRQWH[WRIRQHVKRWJDPHV)LQDOO\EHFDXVH

2

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

UHVSRQVHVIROORZWKHORJLWUXOHWKHVROXWLRQKDVWKHSURSHUW\WKDWLWLVVHQVLWLYHWRDSOD\HU¶V RZQSD\RIIDQGWRWKHSD\RIIVRIWKHRWKHUSOD\HUV :H XVH WKH 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD WR WHVW WKH SUHGLFWLYH SRZHU RI WKH PRGHO DQG LWV UREXVWQHVV EHFDXVH LQ WKLV JDPH ³UHDVRQLQJ FKDLQV´ DUH OLNHO\ WR RFFXU  ,QGHHG FRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQWKHGDWDDQGVLPXODWLRQVVKRZWKDWRXULQWURVSHFWLYHPRGHOLVDJRRG SUHGLFWRURIEHKDYLRULQVLQJOHLQWHUDFWLRQ7UDYHOHU¶V'LOHPPD JDPHV,QDGGLWLRQWRWHVW WKH UREXVWQHVV RI WKH PRGHO ZH ORRN DW WKH HIIHFW RI D FRPPRQ DGYLFH RQ GHFLVLRQV &RPPRQ DGYLFH LV LQWURGXFHG E\ PDNLQJ SXEOLF D ³EHVW FODLP´ DGYLFH WKDW SOD\HUV RI D UHSHDWHG7UDYHOHU V'LOHPPDJDPHJLYHWRVXEMHFWVSOD\LQJDVLQJOHLQWHUDFWLRQJDPHZLWK WKHH[DFWVDPHSDUDPHWHUV8QOLNHRWKHUPRGHOVRILQWURVSHFWLRQWKDWDUHEDVHGRQ³EHVW UHVSRQVH´G\QDPLFVVXFKDVQOHYHOUDWLRQDOLW\DQGUDWLRQDOL]DELOLW\WKHPRGHOZHFRQVLGHU KHUHH[SODLQVFKRLFHVWKDWPRYHDZD\IURPHTXLOLEULXPGHVSLWHFRPPRQNQRZOHGJHRIWKH DGYLFH,QRWKHUZRUGVHYHQDIWHUDOOSOD\HUVNQRZWKDWDOONQRZZKDWWKH³DGYLFHGFODLP´ LVFKRLFHVPRYHDZD\IURPWKHGLUHFWLRQSUHGLFWHGE\³EHVWUHVSRQVH´EHKDYLRU 7KH QH[W VHFWLRQ LV EULHIO\ GHYRWHG WR WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI WKH 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD JDPH  6HFWLRQ  LQWURGXFHV WKH LQWURVSHFWLYH SURFHVV DQG 6HFWLRQ  SUHVHQWV WKH VLPXODWLRQV7KHH[SHULPHQWDOGHVLJQDQGSURFHGXUHVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ6HFWLRQ,QVHFWLRQ  WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG VLPXODWHG GDWD DUH GHVFULEHG DQG FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH WKHRUHWLFDO SUHGLFWLRQV)LQDOO\VHFWLRQFRQWDLQVDFRQFOXVLRQ 

7KH7UDYHOHU¶V'LOHPPD %DVX   ZKR LQWURGXFHG WKH 7UDYHOHU¶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

3

E2003/17

HDFK WUDYHOHU KDV DQ LQFHQWLYH WR ³XQGHUFXW´ WKH RWKHU¶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¶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¶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

4

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

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¶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¶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

5

E2003/17

PDNLQJSURFHVVRISOD\HUV+HQFHLQVWHDGRIORRNLQJDWDVWUDWHJ\DQGWU\LQJWRGHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU LW LV LQWHUQDOO\ FRQVLVWHQW KHQFH UDWLRQDOL]DEOH WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV LV WUDFHGVWDUWLQJIURPDQLQLWLDOUHIHUHQFHSRLQWDQGWKLVWUDFLQJOHDGVWRWKHVROXWLRQ$UHVXOW LVWKDWUDWLRQDOL]DELOLW\H[SDQGVWKHVHWRISRVVLEOHRXWFRPHVZKHUHDVRXUPRGHOSURYLGHVD XQLTXHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRYHUDOOFKRLFHV 

7KH,QWURVSHFWLYH0RGHODQGWKH7UDYHOHU V'LOHPPD ([SHULPHQWDO GDWD LQGLFDWH WKDW WKHUH LV D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RI WKH UHZDUGSXQLVKPHQWSDUDPHWHURQWKHILUVWSHULRGFKRLFHV7KHVHFODLPVDUHQRWHTXLOLEULXP FODLPV²FODLPV WHQG WR PRYH DZD\ IURP WKHLU LQLWLDO OHYHOV LQ ODWHU SHULRGV²DQG VR DQ HTXLOLEULXP PRGHO ZLOO EH DQ LQDSSURSULDWH PRGHO WR XVH WR SUHGLFW GHFLVLRQV LQ WKH ILUVW SHULRG  6LPLODUO\ IRU RQHVKRW JDPHV DQ HTXLOLEULXP PRGHO LV QRW WKH ULJKW PRGHO VLQFH HTXLOLEULXP LV WKH UHVXOW RI DQ DGMXVWPHQW SURFHVV WKURXJK OHDUQLQJ DQG UHSHWLWLRQ  $V DUJXHG DERYH D PRGHO RI LQWURVSHFWLRQ LV D PRUH DGHTXDWH PRGHO RI EHKDYLRU LQ VLQJOH LQWHUDFWLRQ JDPHV  ,Q DGGLWLRQ UDWLRQDOL]DELOLW\ ZKLFK FDQ EH WKRXJKW RI EHLQJ DQ LQWURVSHFWLYHPRGHOLVEDVHGRQEHVWUHVSRQVHVDQGIRUWKH7UDYHOHU¶V'LOHPPDLWSUHGLFWV DXQLTXHVROXWLRQLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHVL]HRIWKHUHZDUGSHQDOW\,QFRQWUDVWDPRGHOWKDW WUDFHVWKH³QRLV\´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¶ SD\RIIV DQG FRQWDLQ D SDUDPHWHU µ  WKDW PHDVXUHV WKH GHYLDWLRQ IURPDEHVWUHVSRQVH VHH0F.HOYH\DQG3DOIUH\ 7KHVWRSSLQJUXOHUHTXLUHVWKDWD SRLQW LV PDSSHG LQWR LWVHOI E\ D OLQNHG SDLU RI VWRFKDVWLF EHVW UHVSRQVHV  7KDW LV WKH

6

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

LQWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVVVWRSVZKHQZKDWDSOD\HU³FDOFXODWHV´WKHRWKHULVJRLQJWRGRLVZKDW KHILJXUHVRXWKHZRXOGGR LIKHZHUHWKHRWKHU DVDUHVSRQVHWRZKDWKHKLPVHOIEHOLHYHV KHVKRXOGGR7KXVWKHVWRSSLQJUXOHFULWHULRQUHTXLUHVFRQVLVWHQF\LQWKLQNLQJRU³LQWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\´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¶VFKRLFHVDQGSOD\HU¶VFKRLFHVZH ZLOOFDOOSOD\HUVKHDQGSOD\HUKH)LJXUHGHSLFWVWKHLQWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVVIRUWKH JDPHLQ7DEOH8SLV8'RZQLV'/HIWLV/DQG5LJKWLV5  >7DEOH$6LPSOH[*DPH@  >)LJXUH7KH,QWURVSHFWLYH3URFHVV@ 

 )LQGLQJD6ROXWLRQIRUWKH*DPH 7KH WUHH LQ )LJXUH  GHSLFWV WKHLQWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVVE\ZKLFKSOD\HUUHDFKHVD FRQFOXVLRQRIZKDWWRGR:LWKWKHKHOSRIWKLVILJXUHRQHFDQVHHKRZWKLVSURFHVVZRUNV 7KH WUHH LV FRPSRVHG RI EUDQFKHV DQG HQGQRGHV  7KH EUDQFKHV GHVFULEH WKH VWRFKDVWLF UHVSRQVHVRIHDFKSOD\HUJLYHQ DEHOLHIKHRUVKHKDVDERXWWKHRWKHU¶VDFWLRQV7KHHQG QRGHVUHSUHVHQWWKHSRVVLEOHVWUDWHJ\FRPELQDWLRQVDWZKLFKWKHWKLQNLQJSURFHVVFDQVWRS LH 8/  85  '/ DQG '5  7KHVROXWLRQWRWKLVPRGHOUHTXLUHVIROORZLQJWKHLWHUDWLYHSURFHVVVWHSE\VWHS/HW

σ   EH SOD\HU  V LQLWLDO VXEMHFWLYH ³LQLWLDO´ EHOLHI RU SULRU WKDW SOD\HU  ZLOOFKRRVH/HIW 7KHSUREDELOLW\WKDWSOD\HUZLOOWKLQNWKDW8SLVWKHEHVWWKLQJWRGRLVJLYHQE\ 38 _σ   DQGIROORZVWKHORJLWUXOH

7

E2003/17

 38 _σ  =

H[S µ σ  $ +  − σ  % H[S µ σ  $ +  − σ  % + H[S µ σ  & +  − σ  '



 7KLV SUREDELOLW\UHSUHVHQWVSOD\HU ¶VVWRFKDVWLFUHVSRQVHWRDQLQLWLDOEHOLHIDQGLW PHDQVWKDWZLWKSUREDELOLW\ 38 _σ  VKHZLOOWKLQNWKDWVKHVKRXOGGHILQLWHO\ IRUVXUH FKRRVH 8S7RGHWHUPLQHZKDWSOD\HUGRHVVKHZRXOGFDOFXODWHSOD\HU¶VUHVSRQVHWRDEHOLHI WKDW VKH VKRXOG LQGHHG FKRRVH 8S WKXV EHOLHI SUREDELOLWLHV DUH DOZD\V  RU ]HUR  %\ GLYLGLQJE\WKHQXPHUDWRUWKHH[SUHVVLRQDERYHHTXDOV

38 _σ  =

   + H[S µ σ  & − $ +  − σ  ' − %

2QWKHRWKHUKDQG  3'_σ  =

 =  − 38 _σ    + H[S µ σ  $ − & +  − σ  % − '

LVWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWSOD\HUZLOOWKLQNWKDW'RZQLVDEHVWUHSO\WRWKHLQLWLDOEHOLHIVDERXW  VDFWLRQV6XSSRVHSOD\HUWKLQNVWKDWVKHVKRXOGFKRRVH8SWKHILUVWEROGDUURZRQWKH IDUOHIW EUDQFK RI WKH WKLQNLQJ WUHH UHSUHVHQWV WKLV PRYH  7KHQ SOD\HU  IRUPV DQ H[SHFWDWLRQ RI ZKDW WKH ULYDO ZRXOG GR E\ FDOFXODWLQJ KHU ULYDO V UHVSRQVH JLYHQ WKDW VKH FKRRVHV8S:LOOSOD\HUFKRRVH/HIWRU5LJKW" 6XSSRVHWKDWSOD\HUSUHGLFWVWKDWSOD\HUZLOOFKRRVH5LJKW DVDUHVSRQVHRIKHU FKRRVLQJ8SWKLVKDSSHQVZLWKSUREDELOLW\ 35 _8 =

   + H[S µ $ − & 

DQG LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH EROG DUURZ SRLQWLQJ GRZQ  7KHQ SOD\HU  FDOFXODWHV KHU QHZ UHVSRQVHIROORZLQJKHUSUHGLFWLRQWKDWKHUULYDOZRXOGFKRRVHWR5LJKW:LWKSUREDELOLW\

3'_ 5 =

   + H[S µ % − '

VKH ZLOO WKLQN WKDW JLYHQ WKDW SOD\HU  ZLOO FKRRVH 5LJKW VKH VKRXOG FKRRVH 'RZQ  7KH QRQEROG DUURZ SRLQWLQJ GRZQ RQ WKH IDUOHIWEUDQFK RI WKH WUHH UHSUHVHQWV WKLV PRYH &RQYHUVHO\ZLWKSUREDELOLW\

8

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

38 _ 5 =

   + H[S µ ' − %

VKH ZLOO WKLQN WKDW 8S LV EHWWHU  6XSSRVH WKDW VKH GHFLGHV IRU 8S WKH WKLUG EROG DUURZ SRLQWLQJ WR WKH OHIW UHSUHVHQWV WKLV PRYH  ,I WKLV KDSSHQV WKH VWRSSLQJ UXOH LV VDWLVILHG VLQFH FKRLFHV DUH FRQVLVWHQW  7KDW LV JLYHQ WKH RWKHU LV H[SHFWHG WR FKRRVH 5LJKW VKH ZRXOGOLNHWRFKRRVH8SDQGJLYHQWKDWVKHWKLQNVWKHULYDOH[SHFWVKHUWRFKRRVH8SVKH WKLQNVWKHULYDOZRXOGZDQWWRFKRRVH5LJKW3OD\HUWKHQVWRSVWKLQNLQJDQGLQIHUVWKH VWUDWHJ\SDLU 8S 5LJKW VKRXOGEHWKHRXWFRPHRIWKHJDPH)URPDQREVHUYHU VSRLQWRI

YLHZWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWSOD\HUZLOOLQIHUWKHVWUDWHJ\SDLU 8S 5LJKW LVWKHVROXWLRQRI WKLVJDPHLVJLYHQE\ 38 _σ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Ω UHSUHVHQWDFRPSOHWH F\FOHDURXQGWKHIDUOHIWEUDQFKRIWKHWUHHZLWKRXWVWRSSLQJDWDQ\RIWKHIRXUHQGQRGHV Ω = 35_8 3'_ 5 3/_ ' 38 _/   0RUHRYHU OHW Q EH WKH QXPEHU RI FRPSOHWH F\FOHV WKDW LV WKH

QXPEHU RI WLPHV WKH SURFHVV F\FOHV ZLWKRXW VWRSSLQJ  )LJXUH  GHSLFWV WKH F\FOH MXVW GHVFULEHG1RZVXSSRVHWKDWWKHWKRXJKWSURFHVVGRHVQRWVWRSDW 8S 5LJKW RQWKHILUVW F\FOHEXWVWRSVWKHUHRQWKHVHFRQGF\FOH7KHQWKHSUREDELOLW\RIVWRSSLQJDWWKHIDUOHIW HQGQRGH 8S 5LJKW LQWZRF\FOHVLVHTXDOWRWKHIROORZLQJVXP 38 _σ  35_8 38 _ 5  + Ω 

 >)LJXUH&RPSOHWH&ORFNZLVH&\FOH@  )ROORZLQJWKLVVDPHOLQHRIUHDVRQLQJDVWKHQXPEHURIFRPSOHWHF\FOHVQJRHVWR LQILQLW\WKHSUREDELOLW\RIHQGLQJXSLQ 8S 5LJKW ZKHQZHDUHRQWKHIDUOHIWEUDQFKRI

9

E2003/17



WKHWUHHLVHTXDOWRWKHIROORZLQJVXP 38 _σ  35_8 38 _ 5 ¦ Ω Q )LQDOO\ZKHQRQHFRQVLGHUV Q =

DOO SRVVLEOH ZD\V WKH RQH MXVW GLVFXVVHG DQG WKH RWKHU WKUHH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH GDVKHG OLQHV  RI UHDFKLQJ WKH HQGQRGH 8S 5LJKW RQHFDQFDOFXODWHWKH SUREDELOLW\ZLWKZKLFK

SOD\HU  UHDFKHV WKH FRQFOXVLRQ WKDW VKH VKRXOG FKRRVH 8S DQG WKH RWKHU VKRXOG FKRRVH 5LJKW 'HILQH 4 8  5 WREHWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHLQWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVVZLOOOHDGSOD\HU WR EHOLHYH WKDW 8S 5LJKW  LV WKH VROXWLRQ RI WKH JDPH  ,Q DGGLWLRQ OHW Γ  UHSUHVHQW D FRPSOHWHF\FOHRQWKHFHQWHUOHIWEUDQFKRUWKHIDUULJKWEUDQFKRIWKHWUHHRI)LJXUH7KDW LV Γ = 3/_8 3'_/ 35_' 38 _5 7KHF\FOH Ω FDQEHWKRXJKWRIEHLQJDFORFNZLVHF\FOHZKLOH Γ LV D FRXQWHUFORFNZLVH F\FOH  0RUH VSHFLILFDOO\ WKH F\FOH ZLOO EH HTXDO WR Ω  ZKHQ WKH SURFHVV PRYHV IURP 38 _σ  WR D EHVW UHVSRQVH 35_8  RU IURP 3'_σ  WR D EHVW UHVSRQVH 3/_ '  UHVSHFWLYHO\  &RQYHUVHO\ WKH F\FOH ZLOO HTXDO Γ  ZKHQ WKH SURFHVV PRYHV IURP 38 _σ  WR 3/_8 RUIURP 3'_σ WR 35_ ' 7KLVF\FOHLVGHSLFWHGLQ)LJXUH

 >)LJXUH&RPSOHWH&RXQWHUFORFNZLVH&\FOH@  &RQVLGHULQJ DOO SRVVLEOH ZD\V RI JHWWLQJ WR 8S 5LJKW  WKH SUREDELOLW\ 4 8  5  LV WKHQHTXDOWRWKHIROORZLQJH[SUHVVLRQ ∞



4 8  5 = 38 _σ  35 _8 38 _ 5 ¦ Ω Q +38 _σ  3/_8 3'_ / 35_ ' 38 _ 5 35_8 ¦ Γ Q Q=



Q=





+ 3<  _σ  3;  _<  3;  _ ;  3<  _ ;  3;  _<  ¦ Ω + 3<  _σ  3<  _<  3;  _<  3<  _ ;  ¦ Γ Q

Q=

Q

Q =

 1RWHWKDWWKLVLVDQLQILQLWHJHRPHWULFVHULHVWKDWFRQYHUJHVWRWKHH[SUHVVLRQVEHORZ  § 35_8 38 _ 5 Γ35_8 + 4 8  5 = 38 _σ  ¨¨ − Γ © − Ω

3 3 3 3 · §3 3 3 ¸ + 3'_σ  ¨ 5_ ' 8 _ 5 5_8 + /_ ' 8 _ / 5_8 8 _ 5 ¸ ¨ − Γ − Ω ¹ ©



10

· ¸ ¸ ¹

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

,Q D VLPLODU PDQQHU ZH FDQ FDOFXODWH WKH SUREDELOLWLHV RI HQGLQJ XS LQ DQ\ RI WKH RWKHUQRGHV$SSHQGL[VKRZVWKHVHSUREDELOLWLHV

 3URSHUWLHVRIWKH,QWURVSHFWLYH0RGHO &DSUD   VKRZV WKDW ZKHQ WKH HUURU SDUDPHWHU JRHV WR LQILQLW\ UDQGRP EHKDYLRU  HDFK VWUDWHJ\ FRPELQDWLRQ RU HQGQRGH LV UHDFKHG ZLWK HTXDO SUREDELOLW\ RI ó DQG HDFK VWUDWHJ\ LV SOD\HG ZLWK HTXDO SUREDELOLW\ RI   &RQYHUVHO\ DV WKH HUURU SDUDPHWHUJRHVWR]HUR SHUIHFWUDWLRQDOLW\ WKHSUREDELOLW\RIVHOHFWLQJD1DVKHTXLOLEULXP DSSURDFKHVRQH

 1XPHULFDO([DPSOH 7KH UHVXOWV RI QXPHULFDO H[DPSOHV DUH LQWHUHVWLQJ EHFDXVH WKH\ FDQ EH FRPSDUHG ZLWK HPSLULFDO GDWD IURP ODERUDWRU\ H[SHULPHQWV  &RQVLGHU IRU H[DPSOH WKH V\PPHWULF EDWWOHRIWKHVH[HV JDPH GHVFULEHG LQ 7DEOH   &RRSHU HW DO   DQG 6WUDXE   SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV IRU EDWWOHRIWKHVH[HV JDPHV ZLWK SD\RII PDWULFHV VLPLODU WR WKRVHRIWKLVWDEOH  >7DEOH$1XPHULFDO([DPSOH7KH%DWWOHRIWKH6H[HV*DPH@  )RUWKHJDPHRI7DEOHWKHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVRI&RRSHUHWDO  VKRZWKDW WKHVWUDWHJLHV'DQG5ZHUHSOD\HGSHUFHQWRIWKHWLPHFRPSDUHGWRWKHPL[HGVWUDWHJ\ VROXWLRQ IUHTXHQF\ RI  SHUFHQW  0RUHRYHU RQH RI 6WUDXE V    GDWD IRU WKH VDPH JDPH VKRZV WKDWWKH'DQG5VWUDWHJLHVZHUHFKRVHQSHUFHQWRIWKHWLPH)RUDQ HUURU SDUDPHWHU RI µ  RXU LQWURVSHFWLYH SURFHVV SUHGLFWV WKDW WKH ' DQG 5 VWUDWHJ\ FKRLFHV ZLOO EH SOD\HG  SHUFHQW RI WKH WLPH DOPRVW WKH H[DFW VDPH SHUFHQWDJH REVHUYHGH[SHULPHQWDOO\E\&RRSHUHWDO  DQG6WUDXE  

 6WDUWLQJ3RLQWRIWKH,QWURVSHFWLYH3URFHVV 7KHWKLQNLQJWUHHRI)LJXUHVWDUWVDWDQLQLWLDOQRGHWKDWGHVFULEHVWKHLQLWLDOSULRU SUREDELOLWLHV  ,W LV UHDVRQDEOH WR H[SHFW WKDW LQLWLDOO\ SOD\HUV KDYH XQLIRUPO\ GLVWULEXWHG SULRUVUHIOHFWLQJWRWDOXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWZKDWWKHRWKHUZRXOGGRDQGE\WKHLQWURVSHFWLYH PRGHOWKHVHXQLIRUPSULRUEHOLHIVDUHODWWHUUHDVVHVVHG+RZHYHUWKHUHLVDQDUJXPHQWIRU FRQVLGHULQJ RWKHU LQLWLDO SULRU SUREDELOLWLHV  ,QGHHG DOWKRXJK WKH YDOXHV RI WKH VWDUWLQJ

11

E2003/17

EHOLHISUREDELOLWLHVGRQRWDIIHFWWKHIDFWWKDWWKHUHLVDXQLTXHRXWFRPHLQWKLVSURFHVVDQG WKDW LWV SURSHUWLHV DUH LQWXLWLYH WKH\ DIIHFW ZKDW WKH VROXWLRQ LWVHOI ZRXOG EH  ,Q VRPH FRQWH[WV SOD\HUV¶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¶V 'LOHPPD JDPH VHVVLRQ SDUWLFLSDQWV LQWHUDFWHG IRU  SHULRGVDQGLQHDFKSHULRGWKH\ZHUHUDQGRPO\PDWFKHGZLWKVRPHRQHHOVHLQWKHURRP$W WKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWWKH\ZHUHWROGWRJLYHDGYLFHWRVXEMHFWVZKRZHUHJRLQJWRSOD\ WKH H[DFW VDPH JDPH EXW RQO\ RQFH VHH ,QVWUXFWLRQV LQ $SSHQGL[    ,Q WKH VLQJOH LQWHUDFWLRQ VHVVLRQV SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH WROG WKDW WKH\ KDG WR PDNH D VLQJOH FODLP EHWZHHQ DQGLQFOXGLQJDQGSHVHWDVDQGWKDWWKHLUHDUQLQJVZRXOGGHSHQGRQWKHLUFKRLFHDQG WKH FKRLFH PDGH E\ VRPHRQH HOVH LQ WKHURRP UDQGRPO\ FKRVHQ  ,QWKHORZDGYLFHDQG KLJKDGYLFH WUHDWPHQWV WKH\ ZHUH DOVR JLYHQ WKH IROORZLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ ³2WKHU VWXGHQWV ZKR VKRZHG KLJK LQWHUHVW DQG PRWLYDWLRQ LQ WKLV H[HUFLVH SDUWLFLSDWHG LQ WKLVH[SHULPHQW EHIRUH \RX  7KH\ KDG WKH DGYDQWDJH RI EHLQJ DEOH WR PDNH GHFLVLRQV WHQ WLPHV \RX DUH JRLQJWRSOD\RQO\RQFH$IWHUWKH\PDGHWKHLUWHQWKGHFLVLRQZHDVNHGWKHPWRJLYHDGYLFH DERXW ZKLFK QXPEHU VRPHRQH ZKR LV SOD\LQJ RQO\ RQFH VKRXOG FKRRVH  7KLV ZDV WKHLU DGYLFH´WKHEHVWQXPEHUWKDW\RXFRXOGFKRRVHLVBB´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

16

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

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¶V 'LOHPPD LV VLPXODWHG XVLQJ WKH DGYLFH DV WKH IRFDO RU VDOLHQW GHSDUWXUH SRLQW  )RU WKH QRDGYLFH VLPXODWLRQ ZH XVH XQLIRUPO\ GLVWULEXWHG LQLWLDO FRQGLWLRQV  (UURU GHFLVLRQ SDUDPHWHUV GR QRWKDYHWREHHTXDOLQWKHWKUHHFDVHVFRQVLGHUHG,QGHHGPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGHVWLPDWHV RIWKHGHFLVLRQHUURUFDQQRWEHREWDLQHGKHUHGXHWRWKHODFNRIGDWD,QJHQHUDOWKHDPRXQW RI QRLVH LQ WKH GDWD VKRXOG GHSHQG RQ WKH VXEMHFW SRRO WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH JDPH WKH H[SHULHQFHDQGOHDUQLQJVXEMHFWVZRXOGKDYHDFTXLUHGDQGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI³XQPRGHOHG´ IDFWRUV LQ WKH GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ SURFHVV  :H DVVXPH WKDW WKH VL]H RI WKH HUURU SDUDPHWHU

17

E2003/17

ZRXOGEHORZHUZKHQWKHDGYLFHLVKLJKWKDQZKHQWKHDGYLFHLVORZRUWKHUHLVQRDGYLFH ,QIDFWZKHQWKHDGYLFHJLYHQWRWKHVXEMHFWVLVSHRSOHZRXOGWKLQNWKDWWKLVLVDYHU\ JRRGDGYLFHEHFDXVHLWDOORZVREWDLQLQJKLJKSD\RIIVLIWKH\EHOLHYHRWKHUVZLOOIROORZLW RU VWD\ FORVH WR    ,Q D ZD\ SURYLGLQJ DQ DGYLFH RI  FRXOG EH D VXEVWLWXWH IRU H[SHULHQFHLQWKLVJDPHFRQVHTXHQWO\ZHVHOHFWHGDORZHUURUSDUDPHWHU µ ZKLFKKDG EHHQ URXJKO\ WKH HUURU SDUDPHWHU HVWLPDWH IRU WKH HTXLOLEULXP PRGHO XVLQJ GDWD IURP D ³7UDYHOHU¶V'LOHPPD´H[SHULPHQWLQDSUHYLRXVSDSHU +RZHYHUZKHQDORZDGYLFHLVSURYLGHGVXEMHFWVGRQRWFRQILUPWKHLUH[SHFWDWLRQV DERXWKRZWKHJDPHVKRXOGEHSOD\HGLQRUGHUWRREWDLQKLJKSD\RIIVDQGWKH\FRXOGILQG WKHPVHOYHVFRQIXVHGDQGHYHQUHMHFWWKHDGYLFHDVUHIHUHQFHSRLQWRIEHKDYLRU7KXVZH VHOHFWHGDKLJKHUHUURUSDUDPHWHU µ IRUWKHORZDQGQRDGYLFHFDVHV,QRUGHUWRVHH KRZ WKH ODERUDWRU\ GDWD ILW WKH VLPXODWHG GDWD ZH DSSOLHG D .ROPRJRURY6PLUQRY RQH VDPSOH WHVW DJDLQ  $V D UHVXOW ZH FDQQRW UHMHFW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVHV WKDW GDWD IROORZ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQV DW WKH  OHYHO RI VLJQLILFDQFH   )LJXUHV  VKRZ WKH HPSLULFDO DQGVLPXODWHGGLVWULEXWLRQVIRUWKHWKUHHFDVHVFRQVLGHUHG  >)LJXUH([SHULPHQWDO)UHTXHQFLHV@

 &RQFOXVLRQ $QH[SOLFLWPRGHORIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDOORZXVWREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGFKRLFHVPDGHLQ RQHVKRWJDPHV,QJDPHVSOD\HGRQFHWKHUHLVQRFKDQFHIRUUHSHWLWLRQRUREVHUYDWLRQRI RWKHUV¶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¶UHVSRQVHLWHUDWLYHO\XQWLODVWRSSLQJUXOHLVVDWLVILHG7KH EHOLHIV WKDW GHWHUPLQH FKRLFH SUREDELOLWLHV DUH GHJHQHUDWH GLVWULEXWLRQV WKDW SXW DOO RI WKH

18

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

SUREDELOLW\PDVVLQWRDVLQJOHSRLQW7KHFKRLFHSUREDELOLWLHVWKDWGHWHUPLQHWKHUHVSRQVHV IROORZ WKHORJLWUXOH7KXVRXUPRGHOLQWURGXFHVERXQGHGUDWLRQDOLW\LQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ DQG KHQFH GLIIHUV IURP RWKHU PRGHOV VLPLODU LQ VSLULW LH LQWURVSHFWLYH  VXFK DV UDWLRQDOL]DELOLW\DQGQOHYHOUDWLRQDOLW\ ,Q WKH HPSLULFDO SDUW RI WKLV SDSHU ZH DQDO\]H EHKDYLRU LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI D VLQJOH LQWHUDFWLRQ 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD JDPH ZLWK DQ DGGLWLRQDO WZLVW DGYLFH  7KH 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD JDPH ZDV FKRVHQ EHFDXVH LQ WKLV JDPH ³UHDVRQLQJ FKDLQV´ DUH OLNHO\ WR RFFXU $GYLFHLVLQWURGXFHGEHFDXVHRIWKUHHUHDVRQVUREXVWQHVVFRPSDULVRQDQGUHDOLW\:HWHVW WKH UREXVWQHVV RI WKH LQWURVSHFWLYH PRGHO E\ FRPSDULQJ WKH WKHRUHWLFDO SUHGLFWLRQV WR WKH H[SHULPHQWDO REVHUYDWLRQV ZKHQ D SDUWLFXODU DGYLFH EHFRPHV FRPPRQ NQRZOHGJH  :H FRPSDUH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI RXU PRGHO YLVjYLV RWKHU PRGHOV RI LQWURVSHFWLRQ WKDW DUH EDVHG RQ ³EHVW UHVSRQVH´ G\QDPLFV VXFK DV QOHYHO UDWLRQDOLW\  7KLUG ZH DG UHDOLW\ E\ SURYLGLQJRQHVKRWSOD\HUVZLWKDGYLFHLQGHHGDUHFXUULQJDUJXPHQWIRUVWXG\LQJRQHVKRW JDPHV LV WKDW LQ PDQ\ UHDO OLIH VLWXDWLRQV GHFLVLRQPDNHUV GR QRW KDYH WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR UHSHDW WKHLU FKRLFHV XQGHU FRQVWDQW H[WHUQDO FRQGLWLRQV LH ³*URXQGKRJ 'D\´ UHDOLW\  +RZHYHULQUHDOOLIHRQHVKRWVLWXDWLRQVSOD\HUVDUHOLNHO\WRVHDUFKIRUDGYLFH :HRUJDQL]HGIRXUH[SHULPHQWDOWUHDWPHQWVRQHUHSHDWHG7UDYHOHU¶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

19

E2003/17

5HIHUHQFHV $QGHUVRQ6*RHUHH-.DQG+ROW&$³6WRFKDVWLF*DPH7KHRU\$GMXVWPHQWWR (TXLOLEULXP8QGHU%RXQGHG5DWLRQDOLW\´:RUNLQJ3DSHU8QLYHUVLW\RI9LUJLQLD $QGHUVRQ6*RHUHH-.DQG+ROW&$³7KH/RJLW(TXLOLEULXP$3HUVSHFWLYHRQ ,QWXLWLYH%HKDYLRUDO$QRPDOLHV´6RXWKHUQ(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO   $QGHUVRQ / $QG +ROW &$  ³,QIRUPDWLRQ &DVFDGHV LQ WKH /DERUDWRU\´ $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF5HYLHZ   %DVX .  ³7KH 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD 3DUDGR[HV RI 5DWLRQDOLW\ LQ *DPH 7KHRU\´ $PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ3DSHUVDQG3URFHHGLQJV   %HUQKHLP%'³5DWLRQDOL]DEOH6WUDWHJLF%HKDYLRU´(FRQRPHWULFD   %LQPRUH.³0RGHOLQJ5DWLRQDO3OD\HUV3DUW,,´(FRQRPLFVDQG3KLORVRSK\    &DPHUHU&)³5XOHVIRU([SHULPHQWLQJLQSV\FKRORJ\DQGHFRQRPLFVDQGZK\WKH\ GLIIHU´,Q8QGHUVWDQGLQJ6WUDWHJLF,QWHUDFWLRQHVVD\VLQKRQRURI5HLQKDUG6HOWHQ HG:$OEHUV:*XWK+DPPHUVWHLQ0ROGXYDQXDQG9DQ'DPPH6SULQJHU &DPHUHU & ) DQG  +R 7 ³([SHULHQFH :HLJKWHG $WWUDFWLRQ /HDUQLQJ (:$  LQ 1RUPDO )RUP*DPHVD8QLI\LQJ$SSURDFK´(FRQRPHWULFD &DSUD&0³1RLV\([SHFWDWLRQ)RUPDWLRQ,Q2QHVKRW*DPHV´3K''LVVHUWDWLRQ 80,$FDGHPLF3UHVV &DSUD &0 *RHUHH -. *RPH] 5 DQG +ROW &$  ³$QRPDORXV %HKDYLRU LQ D 7UDYHOHU¶V'LOHPPD"´$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ   &DSUD &0 *RHUHH -. *RPH] 5 DQG +ROW &$  ³/HDUQLQJ DQG 1RLV\ (TXLOLEULXP %HKDYLRU LQ DQ ([SHULPHQWDO 6WXG\ RI ,PSHUIHFW 3ULFH &RPSHWLWLRQ´ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ   &KHQ+)ULHGPDQ-:DQG7KLVVH-)³%RXQGHGO\5DWLRQDO1DVK(TXLOLEULXP$ 3UREDELOLVWLF$SSURDFK´*DPHVDQG(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU &RRSHU5'H-RQJ')RUV\WKH5DQG5RVV7³&RPPXQLFDWLRQLQWKH%DWWOHRI WKH6H[HV *DPH 6RPH ([SHULPHQWDO 5HVXOWV´ 5$1' -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV   &RRSHU5'H-RQJ')RUV\WKH5DQG5RVV7³)RUZDUG,QGXFWLRQLQWKH%DWWOH RIWKH6H[HV*DPH´$PHULFTDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ  

20

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

+DUVDQ\L - DQG 6HOWHQ 5  $ *HQHUDO 7KHRU\ RI (TXLOLEULXP 6HOHFWLRQ LQ *DPHV &DPEULGJH0,73UHVV 0F.HOYH\ 5' DQG 3DOIUH\ 75  ³4XDQWDO 5HVSRQVH (TXLOLEULD IRU 1RUPDO )RUP *DPHV´*DPHVDQG(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU   0F.HOYH\5'DQG3DOIUH\75³4XDQWDO5HVSRQVH(TXLOLEULDIRU([WHQVLYH)RUP *DPHV´([SHULPHQWDO(FRQRPLFV   0HKWD - 6WDUPHU & DQG 6XGJHQ 5  ³7KH 1DWXUH RI 6DOLHQFH $Q ([SHULPHQWDO ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ RI 3XUH &RRUGLQDWLRQ *DPHV´ $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ     1DJHO 5  ³8QUDYHOLQJ *XHVVLQJ *DPHV $Q ([SHULPHQWDO 6WXG\´ $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF5HYLHZ   2FKV -  ³*DPHV ZLWK 8QLTXH 0L[HG 6WUDWHJ\ (TXLOLEULD $Q ([SHULPHQWDO 6WXG\´ *DPHVDQG(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU   3HDUFH '*  ³5DWLRQDOL]DEOH 6WUDWHJLF %HKDYLRU DQG WKH 3UREOHP RI 3HUIHFWLRQ´ (FRQRPHWULFD   5RVHQWKDO5:³$%RXQGHG5DWLRQDOLW\$SSURDFKWRWKH6WXG\RI1RQFRRSHUDWLYH *DPHV´,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI*DPH7KHRU\   5RWK $ DQG (UHY ,  ³/HDUQLQJ LQ ([WHQVLYH)RUP *DPHV ([SHULPHQWDO 'DWD DQG 6LPSOH'\QDPLF0RGHOVLQWKH,QWHUPHGLDWH7HUP´*DPHVDQG(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRU  5XELQVWHLQ$0RGHOLQJ%RXQGHG5DWLRQDOLW\&DPEULGJHWKH0,73UHVV 6FKHOOLQJ7&7KH6WUDWHJ\RI&RQIOLFW&DPEULGJH0$+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 6LHJHO6DQG&DVWHOODQ1- 1RQSDUDPHWULF6WDWLVWLFVIRUWKH%HKDYLRUDO6FLHQFHV 6HFRQG(GLWLRQ0F*UDZ+LOO 6LPRQ+$0RGHOVRI0DQ1HZL@ URZBH[BSD\RII>L@URZBSD\RII URZBEHOLHI>M@ HQG (QG (QG^HQGVFDOFXODWHBURZBH[SHFWHGBSD\RII`  352&('85(&DOFXODWHBURZBGHFLVLRQBSUREDELOLWLHV %HJLQ VXPBU  )25L N72Q'2 VXPBU VXPBUH[S ODPGD URZBH[BSD\RII>L@   )25L NWRQ'2 FXPBURZBSURE>L@   )25L N72Q'2 URZBSURE>L@ H[S ODPGD URZBH[BSD\RII>L@ VXPBU FXPBURZBSURE>N@ URZBSURE>N@  )25L N72Q'2 FXPBURZBSURE>L@ FXPBURZBSURE>L@URZBSURE>L@  (QG  352&('85(&DOFXODWHBURZBEHOLHIV %HJLQ )25L N72Q'2^UHVHWSUHYLRXVBEHOLHIVEHIRUHFDOFXODWLQJQHZRQHV` %HJLQ SUHYLRXVBURZBEHOLHI>L@ URZBEHOLHI>L@ (QG  UHDOL]DWLRQ UDQGRP )RUL N72Q'2 %HJLQ ,) L N 7+(1 EHJLQ ,) UHDOL]DWLRQFXPBURZBSURE>L@ 7+(1FROBEHOLHI>L@  (/6(FROBEHOLHI>L@  HQG ,) L!N 7+(1 EHJLQ ,)  FXPBURZBSURE>L@UHDOL]DWLRQ $1' UHDOL]DWLRQ    FXPBURZBSURE>L@  7+(1FROBEHOLHI>L@ 

27



E2003/17

(/6(FROBEHOLHI>L@  HQG (QG (QG  352&('85(&DOFXODWHBFROBH[SHFWHGBSD\RIIV %HJLQ  )25M N72Q'2 %HJLQ FROBH[BSD\RII>M@  )25L N72Q'2 EHJLQ ,) L M 7+(1FROBSD\RII L ,) LM 7+(1FROBSD\RII L5 ,) L!M 7+(1FROBSD\RII M5 FROBH[BSD\RII>M@ FROBH[BSD\RII>M@FROBEHOLHI>L@ FROBSD\RII HQG (QG (QG^FDOFXODWHBH[SHFWHGBSD\RIIVHQGV`  352&('85(&DOFXODWHBFROBGHFLVLRQBSUREDELOLWLHV %HJLQ VXPBF  )25M N72Q'2 VXPBF VXPBFH[S ODPGD FROBH[BSD\RII>M@   )25L NWRQ'2 FXPBFROBSURE>L@   )25L N72Q'2 FROBSURE>L@ H[S ODPGD FROBH[BSD\RII>L@ VXPBF FXPBFROBSURE>N@ FROBSURE>N@  )25L N72Q'2 FXPBFROBSURE>L@ FXPBFROBSURE>L@FROBSURE>L@  (QG^&DOFXODWHBGHFLVLRQBSUREDELOLWLHVHQGV`  352&('85(&DOFXODWHBFROBEHOLHIV  %HJLQ )25L N72Q'2^UHVHWSUHYLRXVBEHOLHIVEHIRUHFDOFXODWLQJQHZRQHV` %HJLQ SUHYLRXVBFROBEHOLHI>L@ FROBEHOLHI>L@ (QG  UHDOL]DWLRQ UDQGRP )RUL N72Q'2 %HJLQ ,) L N 7+(1 EHJLQ ,) UHDOL]DWLRQFXPBFROBSURE>L@ 7+(1URZBEHOLHI>L@  (/6(URZBEHOLHI>L@  HQG ,) L!N 7+(1

28

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

EHJLQ ,)  FXPBFROBSURE>L@UHDOL]DWLRQ $1' UHDOL]DWLRQ    FXPBFROBSURE>L@  7+(1URZBEHOLHI>L@  (/6(URZBEHOLHI>L@  HQG (QG (QG^&DOFXODWHBEHOLHIVHQGV`  352&('85(&KHFNBFRQYHUJHQFH %HJLQ P  )25L N72Q'2 %HJLQ ,)  SUHYLRXVBURZBEHOLHI>L@ URZBEHOLHI>L@ $1'  SUHYLRXVBFROBEHOLHI>L@ FROBEHOLHI>L@  7+(1P P (QG ,) P  QN 7+(1&RQYHUJHQFH 758( (QG  352&('85(5HFRUGBHQGBQRGH %HJLQ )25L N72Q'2 %HJLQ )25M N7RQ'2 %HJLQ ,)  URZBEHOLHI>L@  DQG FROBEHOLHI>M@   7+(1 VXPBHQGBQRGHBFRXQW>LM@ VXPBHQGBQRGHBFRXQW>LM@ (QG (QG (QG^5HFRUGBHQGBQRGHVHQGV`  352&('85(:ULWHBXSBUHVXOWV %HJLQ ZULWHOQ 7RWDOQXPEHUVRIWHUPLQDWLRQVIRUHDFKRXWFRPH  )25L N72Q'2^ZULWHRXWWKHQXPEHURIWHUPLQDWLRQVDWHDFKHQGQRGH` %HJLQ )25M N72Q'R ZULWHOQ  L  L M  M >LM@       VXPBHQGBQRGHBFRXQW>LM@  UHDGOQ (QG UHDGOQ (QG  352&('85(6DYHBRXWSXWBWRBGLVN 9DU ]%LM@  (QG &ORVH H[SGDWDILOH  (QG  %HJLQ^PDLQ3URJUDP` ,QLWLDOL]H )25W 72QXPEHUBRIBWHUPLQDWLRQV'2 %(*,1^%HJLQWUDFLQJQXPEHUW` ,QLWLDOL]HBWUDFLQJ :KLOH &RQYHUJHQFH )$/6( '2 %HJLQ^,QWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVV`   &DOFXODWHBURZBH[SHFWHGBSD\RIIV   &DOFXODWHBURZBGHFLVLRQBSUREDELOLWLHV   &DOFXODWHBURZBEHOLHIV   &DOFXODWHBFROBH[SHFWHGBSD\RIIV   &DOFXODWHBFROBGHFLVLRQBSUREDELOLWLHV   &DOFXODWHBFROBEHOLHIV &KHFNBFRQYHUJHQFH (QG^,QWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVV` 5HFRUGBHQGBQRGH (1'^HQGVWUDFLQJ` :ULWHBXSBUHVXOWV 6DYHBRXWSXWBWRBGLVN (QG^PDLQSURJUDP`

 



30

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

7DEOHV 

 7DEOH7KH7UDYHOHU V'LOHPPDLQ1RUPDO)RUP FODLPVDUHEHWZHHQDQGFHQWVZLWKUHZDUGSHQDOW\RIFHQWV 

 1DVKHTXLOLEULXPUDWLRQDOL]DEOHHTXLOLEULXP  &ROXPQ3OD\HU

     



N 

N 

N 

N 

«

«

N 

N 

N 

 















N 

















N 

















 N  5RZ 3OD\HU N 

































«













«

«

«













«

«

N 











«





N 











«









31

E2003/17

7DEOH$6LPSOH[*DPH 







3OD\HU VKH 

8S

3OD\HU KH  

'RZQ

/HIW

5LJKW

$$

%&

&%

''

32

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

7DEOH$1XPHULFDO([DPSOH7KH%DWWOHRI WKH6H[HV*DPH 

 3OD\HU

3OD\HU

 



/

5

8





'







33

E2003/17

7DEOH6XPPDU\RI([SHULPHQWDO'HVLJQ RIVXEMHFWV SHUVHVVLRQ

RIVXEMHFWV SHUWUHDWPHQW

RI SHULRGV

7UHDWPHQW









5HSHDWHG7'









2QHVKRW7' ZLWKQRDGYLFH











2QHVKRW7'Z +LJKFODLPDGYLFH

3DUDOOHOVHVVLRQV









2QHVKRW7'Z /RZFODLPDGYLFH



6HVVLRQ

   

34

 6XEMHFWVZHUH DVNHGWRJLYH DGYLFH

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

)LJXUHV   )LJXUH2EVHUYHG)LUVWSHULRG&ODLP)UHTXHQFLHV  &ODLPVDUHEHWZHHQDQGFHQWVZLWKSHQDOW\UHZDUGRIDQGFHQWV  

      

            'DWD5 



'DWD5 

'DWDIURP&DSUDHWDO  



  

35

FHQWV

E2003/17

)LJXUH7KH,QWURVSHFWLYH3URFHVV

3'SULRU

38SULRU

35'

3'/

38/

385

3'5

36

35'

8/

3'/

'5

85

3/8

85

358

'5

385

358

85

385

'5

3'5

358

8/ 3/8

35'

3'5

3'/

3/8

'/

38/

3/' '/

38/

8/

8/

3/'

3'5

3/'

'/

38/

3'/

3'5

'5

3/8

385

358

85

3/'

'/

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

)LJXUH&RPSOHWH&ORFNZLVH&\FOH > 358 3'5 3/' 38/ 8S5LJKW

8S/HIW 385 3/8 358

38/

3'5

3/'

'RZQ/HIW

3'/

35'

'RZQ5LJKW



37

E2003/17

)LJXUH&RPSOHWH&RXQWHUFORFNZLVH&\FOH * 3/8 3'/ 35' 385 8S5LJKW

8S/HIW 358 38/ 3/8

3'/

385

35'

'RZQ/HIW

3'5

3/'

'RZQ5LJKW





38

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

)LJXUHV([SHULPHQWDO)UHTXHQFLHV $ 1RDGYLFH PHGLDQPRGHPHDQ 







 



















































       

% /RZDGYLFH PHGLDQPRGHPHDQ 







 







































     







     

& +LJKDGYLFH PHGLDQPRGHPHDQ 







 

























39









E2003/17

)LJXUHV6LPXODWHGDQG(PSLULFDO)UHTXHQFLHV $ 1RDGYLFHµ=22 

HPSLULFDOGDWD

IUHTXHQFLHV



VLPXODWHGGDWD

     





















0RUH

&ODLPV



% /RZDGYLFHµ  

HPSLULFDOGDWD

IUHTXHQFLHV



VLPXODWHGGDWD

     





















0RUH

&ODLPV



& +LJKDGYLFHµ  

HPSLULFDOGDWD

IUHTXHQFLHV



VLPXODWHGGDWD

     











&ODLPV

40











0RUH



Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces



(QGQRWHV 



$FFRUGLQJWR5XELQVWHLQ  SURFHGXUDOO\UDWLRQDOEHKDYLRUPXVWEHGLVWLQJXLVKHGIURP

LUUDWLRQDO EHKDYLRU  7KH ODWHU LV WKH RXWFRPH RI LPSXOVLYH UHVSRQVHV ZLWKRXW DGHTXDWH LQWHUYHQWLRQRIWKRXJKW 

,QPDQ\VWUDWHJLFVLWXDWLRQV YRWLQJZDUDXFWLRQV GHFLVLRQPDNHUVDUHQRWDVOXFN\DVWKH

PDLQ FKDUDFWHU LQ WKH PRYLH ³*URXQGKRJ¶V 'D\´²&DPHUHU  ZLWWLQJO\ FDOOV ³*URXQGKRJ 'D\ UHSOLFDWLRQ´ WKRVH UHSHDWHG HQYLURQPHQWV ZKHUH SDUDPHWHUL]DWLRQ GRHV QRW FKDQJH² ,Q WKLV ILOP WKH PDLQ FKDUDFWHU OLYHV WKH VDPH GD\ VHYHUDO WLPHV DQG HDFK GD\KHIDFHVWKHH[DFWVDPHVLWXDWLRQVDQGGHFLVLRQVEXWFDQUHPHPEHUSHUIHFWO\ZKDWKH GLG SUHYLRXVO\ WKXV KLV FKRLFHV KDYH QR UHDO FRQVHTXHQFH RQ RWKHUV EXW KLV SDVW H[SHULHQFHVKHOSKLPFRUUHFWHUURUV:KHQKHILQDOO\ILQGVDGHFLVLRQKHLVKDSS\ZLWKKH VWRSVOLYLQJWKHVDPHGD\DQGPRYHVRQ 

(TXLOLEULXPLPSOLFDWLRQVRIUHSHDWHGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVHVDQGOHDUQLQJZLWKHUURUV

LQ VSHFLILF VHWWLQJV KDYH EHHQ H[SORUHG E\ &DPHUHU DQG +R   &KHQ )ULHGPDQ DQG 7KLVVH   2FKV   5RWK DQG (UHY   DQG &DSUD HW DO   DQG   DPRQJRWKHUV 

7KHSEHDXW\FRQWHVWJDPHLVDOVRDGHTXDWHIRUWKHHYDOXDWLRQ RI³UHDVRQLQJFKDLQV´,Q

WKLVJDPHSOD\HUVDUHDVNHGWRFKRRVHDQXPEHUEHWZHHQDQG7KHFKRLFHFORVHVWWR S S  WLPHV WKH DYHUDJH RI DOO FKRLFHV ZLQV D SUL]H   7KLV JDPH ZDV DQDO\]HG H[SHULPHQWDOO\E\1DJHO   

1DVKHTXLOLEULDDUHFRQVLVWHQWLQWKHVHQVHWKDWDSOD\HU¶VSUHGLFWLRQRIZKDWWKHRWKHUZLOO

GRLVWKHRWKHU¶VEHVWUHSO\WRWKHSOD\HU¶VEHVWUHVSRQVHWRKLVSUHGLFWLRQ 

7KHLQLWLDOEHOLHIVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDUWLQJSRLQWRIWKHLQWURVSHFWLYHSURFHVV



5HFDOOWKDWLQWKLVPRGHOEHOLHIVDUHGHJHQHUDWHGLVWULEXWLRQVWKDWSXWDOOWKHSUREDELOLW\

PDVVDWDSRLQW 

5HFDOOWKDWWKHVWRSSLQJUXOHUHTXLUHVDOLQNHGSDLURIVWRFKDVWLFUHVSRQVHV



 ,QWXLWLYHO\ WKH RYHUDOO SUREDELOLW\ WKDW D SOD\HU V GHFLVLRQ SURFHVV VWRSV DW DQ HQGQRGH

GHSHQGVRQWKHSURGXFWRIWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHV:KHQ µ → ∞ DOOWKHVHSUREDELOLWLHV HTXDOKHQFHE\UHSODFLQJWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHVZLWKLWLVVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGWR

41

E2003/17

 VHHWKDW OLP 4 8 5 = OLP 4 8  / = OLP 4 ' 5 = OLP 4 ' / →     µ →∞

µ →∞

µ →∞

µ →∞



3UREDELOLVWLFUHVSRQVHVEHFRPHEHVWUHVSRQVHVDQGWKHUHLVQRLWHUDWLRQ



,QVWHDGRISD\RIIVRIDQG&RRSHUHWDO  XVHDQGDQG6WUDXE  

XVHVDQG 

 7KHVH GDWD UHSUHVHQW WKH DJJUHJDWH IUHTXHQF\ RI ' DQG 5 FKRLFHV IRU WKH JDPH SOD\HG

VHYHUDOWLPHV+RZHYHUWKHRQHVKRWVWUXFWXUHRIWKHJDPHZDVNHSWLQWKHH[SHULPHQWVE\ PDWFKLQJ HDFK SOD\HU DJDLQVW D GLIIHUHQW DQRQ\PRXV RSSRQHQW LQ HDFK SHULRG  ,Q WKHVH H[SHULPHQWVQRSOD\HUNQHZWKHLGHQWLW\RIWKHSOD\HUKHZDVPDWFKHGZLWKRUWKHKLVWRU\ RIGHFLVLRQVPDGHE\DQ\RIWKHRWKHUSOD\HUV1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHVHGDWDGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\ HTXDOWKRVHZRXOGFRPHIURPDSXUHO\RQHVKRWH[SHULPHQWZKHUHUHSHWLWLRQDQGOHDUQLQJ DUHQRWDOORZHG 

$FFRUGLQJWR0HKWDHWDOWKHVXEMHFWVZKRUHDVRQIXUWKHUKDYHDGHSWKRIUHDVRQLQJRI

RUGHUQ,IDVWUDWHJ\LVFKRVHQWKDWLVWKHEHVWUHVSRQVHWRWKHIRFDOSRLQWWKHRUGHURIWKH GHSWK RIUHDVRQLQJLV6LPLODUO\LIRQHXVHVDVWUDWHJ\WKDWLVDEHVWUHVSRQVHRIDEHVW UHVSRQVHWRWKHIRFDOSRLQWWKHGHSWKRIUHDVRQLQJKDVRUGHUHWF 

 $V PHQWLRQHG DERYH IRU D WZRSOD\HUWZRVWUDWHJLHV JDPH ZKHQ WKH LQWURVSHFWLYH

SURFHVVVWRSVDIWHURQHF\FOHWKHUHLVRQHFORFNZLVH³F\FOLFDO´ZD\LQZKLFKWKHVDPHHQG QRGH FDQ EH UHDFKHG VHH )LJXUH    )RU D WZRSOD\HUWKUHHVWUDWHJLHV JDPH ZKHQ WKH WKRXJKWSURFHVVVWRSVDIWHURQHF\FOHWKHUHDUHIRXUSRVVLEOH FORFNZLVHF\FOLFDOZD\VWKDW WKHVDPHHQGQRGHFDQEHUHDFKHG,QWKHVDPHPDQQHUZKHQWKHQXPEHURIVWUDWHJLHVLVQ DQG WKH LQLWLDO SULRU SUREDELOLWLHV DUH XQLIRUPO\ GLVWULEXWHG RYHU DOO Q VWUDWHJLHV WKHUH DUH Q

¦ [ L −  − ] F\FOHVWKDWOHDGWRWKHVDPHHQGQRGH L=



7KHGLVFUHWHYHUVLRQRIWKH7UDYHOHU¶V'LOHPPDLVVKRZQRQ7DEOH



7KHVXEMHFWVZKRSDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKHUHSHDWHGLQWHUDFWLRQVHVVLRQPDGHRQDYHUDJH

SHVHWDV  7KH VXEMHFWV ZKR SDUWLFLSDWHG LQ WKH VLQJOH LQWHUDFWLRQ JDPHV PDGH RQ DYHUDJH SHVHWDV 

 7KH DGYLFH JLYHQ E\ WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ WKH UHSHDWHG 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD JDPH VHVVLRQ

ZDVDQG 

,QWKHQRDGYLFHVHVVLRQVRQO\RQHVXEMHFWFKRVH WKHHTXLOLEULXPVWUDWHJ\ WKHUHDOVR

42

Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces

 ZDVRQHVXEMHFWVHOHFWLQJ DOPRVWWKHHTXLOLEULXPVWUDWHJ\  

7KHPD[LPXPGHYLDWLRQVZHUHDQGIRUWKHKLJKDGYLFHORZDGYLFHDQG

QR DGYLFH FDVHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH FULWLFDO YDOXH RI WKH PD[LPXP GHYLDWLRQ IRU  REVHUYDWLRQV DW D  OHYHO RI VLJQLILFDQFH LV  6HH 6LHJHO DQG &DVWHOODQ   IRU GHWDLOV 

7KHDOWHUQDWLYHK\SRWKHVLVVWDWHVWKDWPRVWRIWKHQXPEHUVFKRVHQLQWKHKLJKDGYLFH

VHVVLRQVDUHKLJKHU 

7KH]YDOXHVZHUH±DQG±UHVSHFWLYHO\6HH6LHJHODQG&DVWHOODQ

  IRU GHWDLOV RI WKH WHVW :H DOVR DSSOLHG D .ROPRJRURY6PLUQRY WHVW ZLWK WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH FODLPV REVHUYHG LQ WKH ORZ DGYLFH VHVVLRQ IROORZ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ REVHUYHGLQWKHQRDGYLFHVHVVLRQ:HFDQQRWUHMHFWWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVDWDOHYHORI VLJQLILFDQFH 

 7KH H[SHULPHQWDO VWXGLHV LQ ZKLFK QOHYHO UDWLRQDOLW\ KDV EHHQ WHVWHG VXFFHVVIXOO\ IRU

RQHVKRW JDPHV FRQFOXGH WKDWGHSWKVRIUHDVRQLQJRIRUGHUV RUH[SODLQPRVWRIWKH REVHUYDWLRQV6HH0HKWDHWDO  1DJHO  DQG6WDKODQG:LOVRQ   

 &DSUD HW DO   IRU GDWD IURP D 7UDYHOHU¶V 'LOHPPD H[SHULPHQW HVWLPDWH DQ HUURU

SDUDPHWHURIIRUWKHHTXLOLEULXPPRGHODQGRIIRUWKHG\QDPLFPRGHO&DSUDHWDO   REWDLQ DQ HUURU SDUDPHWHU RI  LQ DQ H[SHULPHQWDO VWXG\ RI LPSHUIHFW SULFH FRPSHWLWLRQ  7KH HVWLPDWHV IRU WKH $QGHUVRQ DQG +ROW   LQIRUPDWLRQ FDVFDGH H[SHULPHQWVLPSO\DQHUURUSDUDPHWHURIDERXW)LQDOO\0F.HOYH\DQG3DOIUH\   HVWLPDWHDQHUURUSDUDPHWHURIIRUDQHTXLOLEULXPPRGHO 

1RWHWKDWWKLV µLVKLJKHUWKDQDOOWKRVHYDOXHVREWDLQHGLQDQHTXLOLEULXPFRQWH[WRULQD

OHDUQLQJHQYLURQPHQW7KLVHUURUSDUDPHWHUZDVHVWLPDWHGLQ&DSUD  XVLQJGDWDIURP RQHVKRWJDPHV 

7KHPD[LPXPGHYLDWLRQVZHUHDQGIRUWKHKLJKORZDQGQRDGYLFHFDVHV

UHVSHFWLYHO\ 5HFDOO WKDW WKH FULWLFDO YDOXH DW WKH  SHUFHQW VLJQLILFDQFH OHYHO IRU  REVHUYDWLRQVLV 

&RPSDULQJWKHVLPXODWHGGDWDIURPWKHKLJKDQGORZDGYLFHFDVHVZHREWDLQHGWKDWWKH

PD[LPXPGHYLDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHFXPXODWLYHIUHTXHQFLHVZDVVRWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVRI HTXDOGLVWULEXWLRQVFDQEHUHMHFWHGDWWKHSHUFHQWVLJQLILFDQFHOHYHO)RUWKHKLJKDQGQR

43

E2003/17

 DGYLFH FDVHV WKH PD[LPXP GHYLDWLRQ LV  VR WKH VDPH FRQFOXVLRQ FDQ EH UHDFKHG )LQDOO\WKHPD[LPXPGHYLDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHFXPXODWLYHGHQVLWLHVIRUWKHORZDQGQRDGYLFH FDVHVLV7KHQWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVWKDWGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHHTXDOFDQQRWEHUHMHFWHGDWWKH SHUFHQWOHYHORIVLJQLILFDQFH

44

centrA: Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces Documentos de Trabajo Serie Economía E2001/01 “The nineties in Spain: so much flexibility in the labor market?’’, J. Ignacio García Pérez y Fernando Muñoz Bullón. E2001/02 “A Log-linear Homotopy Approach to Initialize the Parameterized Expectations Algorithm’’, Javier J. Pérez. E2001/03 “Computing Robust Stylized Facts on Comovement’’, Francisco J. André, Javier J. Pérez, y Ricardo Martín. E2001/04 “Linking public investment to private investment. The case of the Spanish regions”, Diego Martínez López. E2001/05 “Price Wars and Collusion in the Spanish Electricity Market”, Juan Toro y Natalia Fabra. E2001/06 “Expedient and Monotone Learning Rules”, Tilman Börgers, Antonio J. Morales y Rajiv Sarin. E2001/07 “A Generalized Production Set. The Production and Recycling Function”, Francisco J. André y Emilio Cerdá.

E2002/01 “Flujos Migratorios entre provincias andaluzas y entre éstas y el resto de España’’, J. Ignacio García Pérez y Consuelo Gámez Amián. E2002/02 “Flujos de trabajadores en el mercado de trabajo andaluz’’, J. Ignacio García Pérez y Consuelo Gámez Amián. E2002/03 “Absolute Expediency and Imitative Behaviour”, Antonio J. Morales Siles. E2002/04 “Implementing the 35 Hour Workweek by means of Overtime Taxation”, Victoria Osuna Padilla y José-Víctor Ríos-Rull. E2002/05 “Landfilling, Set-Up costs and Optimal Capacity”, Francisco J. André y Emilio Cerdá. E2002/06 “Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models”, Javier J. Pérez y Paul Hiebert. E2002/07 “Análisis dinámico de la relación entre ciclo económico y ciclo del desempleo en Andalucía en comparación con el resto de España”, Javier J. Pérez, Jesús Rodríguez López y Carlos Usabiaga.

E2002/08 “Provisión eficiente de inversión pública financiada con impuestos distorsionantes”, José Manuel González-Páramo y Diego Martínez López. E2002/09 “Complete or Partial Inflation convergence in the EU?”, Consuelo Gámez y Amalia Morales-Zumaquero. E2002/10 “On the Choice of an Exchange Regime: Target Zones Revisited”, Jesús Rodríguez López y Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal. E2002/11 “Should Fiscal Policy Be Different in a Non-Competitive Framework?”, Arantza Gorostiaga. E2002/12 “Debt Reduction and Automatic Stabilisation”, Paul Hiebert, Javier J. Pérez y Massimo Rostagno. E2002/13 “An Applied General Equilibrium Model to Assess the Impact of National Tax Changes on a Regional Economy”, M. Alejandro Cardenete y Ferran Sancho. E2002/14 “Optimal Endowments of Public Investment: An Empirical Analysis for the Spanish Regions”, Óscar Bajo Rubio, Carmen Díaz Roldán y M. Dolores Montávez Garcés. E2002/15 “Is it Worth Refining Linear Approximations to Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models?” , Alfonso Novales y Javier J. Pérez. E2002/16 “Factors affecting quits and layoffs in Spain”, Antonio Caparrós Ruiz y M.ª Lucía Navarro Gómez. E2002/17 “El problema de desempleo en la economía andaluza (19902001): análisis de la transición desde la educación al mercado laboral”, Emilio Congregado y J. Ignacio García Pérez. E2002/18 “Pautas cíclicas de la economía andaluza en el período 19842001: un análisis comparado”, Teresa Leal, Javier J. Pérez y Jesús Rodríguez. E2002/19 “The European Business Cycle”, Mike Artis, Hans-Martin Krolzig y Juan Toro. E2002/20 “Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case”, Hans-Martin Krolzig y Juan Toro. E2002/21 “On the Desirability of Supply-Side Intervention in a Monetary Union”, Mª Carmen Díaz Roldán.

E2003/01 “Modelo Input-Output de agua. Análisis de las relaciones intersectoriales de agua en Andalucía”, Esther Velázquez Alonso. E2003/02 “Robust Stylized Facts on Comovement for the Spanish Economy”, Francisco J. André y Javier Pérez.

E2003/03 “Income Distribution in a Regional Economy: A SAM Model”, Maria Llop y Antonio Manresa. E2003/04 “Quantitative Restrictions on Clothing Imports: Impact and Determinants of the Common Trade Policy Towards Developing Countries”, Juliette Milgram. E2003/05 “Convergencia entre Andalucía y España: una aproximación a sus causas (1965-1995). ¿Afecta la inversión pública al crecimiento?”, Javier Rodero Cosano, Diego Martínez López y Rafaela Pérez Sánchez. E2003/06 “Human Capital Externalities: A Sectoral-Regional Application for Spain”, Lorenzo Serrano. E2003/07 “Dominant Strategies Implementation of the Critical Path Allocation in the Project Planning Problem”, Juan Perote Peña. E2003/08 “The Impossibility of Strategy-Proof Clustering”, Javier Perote Peña y Juan Perote Peña. E2003/09 “Plurality Rule Works in Three-Candidate Elections”, Bernardo Moreno y M. Socorro Puy. E2003/10 “A Social Choice Trade-off Between Alternative Fairness Concepts: Solidarity versus Flexibility”, Juan Perote Peña. E2003/11 “Computational Errors in Guessing Games”, Pablo Brañas Garza y Antonio Morales. E2003/12 “Dominant Strategies Implementation when Compensations are Allowed: a Characterization”, Juan Perote Peña. E2003/13 “Filter-Design and Model-Based Analysis of Economic Cycles”, Diego J. Pedregal. E2003/14 “Strategy-Proof Estimators for Simple Regression”, Javier Perote Peña y Juan Perote Peña. E2003/15 "La Teoría de Grafos aplicada al estudio del consumo sectorial de agua en Andalucía", Esther Velázquez Alonso. E2003/16 "Solidarity in Terms of Reciprocity", Juan Perote Peña. E2003/17 "The Effects of Common Advice on One-shot Traveler’s Dilemma Games: Explaining Behavior through an Introspective Model with Errors", C. Monica Capra Susana Cabrera y Rosario Gómez.

centrA: Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces Normas de publicación de Documentos de Trabajo centrA Economía La Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces (centra) pretende, dentro de sus objetivos prioritarios, proporcionar un marco idóneo para la discusión y difusión de resultados científicos en el ámbito de la Economía. Con este propósito pone a disposición de los investigadores interesados una colección de documentos de trabajo que facilite la transmisión de conocimientos. En este sentido, la Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces invita a la comunidad científica al envío de artículos en los que, con base en los principios de¡ análisis económico y/o técnicas cuantitativas rigurosas, ofrezcan resultados de investigaciones en curso. Las normas de presentación y selección de originales son las siguientes: 1. Todos los artículos que se envíen a la colección han de ser originales, no encontrándose publicados en ningún medio de difusión. Podrán estar redactados en castellano o en inglés. 2. Los originales recibidos serán sometidos a un proceso de evaluación en el que serán directamente aceptados para su publicación, aceptados sujetos a revisión o rechazados. Se valorará, asimismo, la presentación de¡ trabajo en seminarios de centra. 3. Los artículos deberán remitirse por duplicado y mecanografiados a doble espacio. En la primera página deberá aparecer el título, nombre y filiación de¡ autor(es), dirección postal y electrónica de referencia y agradecimientos. En la segunda página se incluirá un resumen en castellano e inglés de no más de 100 palabras, códigos JEL y palabras clave. Las notas al texto deberán numerarse correlativamente al pie de página. Las ecuaciones se numerarán, cuando el autor lo considere necesario, con números arábigos entre corchetes a la derecha de las mismas. Las tablas, gráficos y figuras serán numeradas con caracteres arábigos y aparecerán al final de¡ texto, detrás de los apéndices (si los hubiere) y las referencias bibliográficas, ocupando páginas independientes. 4. En cualquier caso, se deberá adjuntar un disquete que contenga el contenido del artículo en alguno de los formatos standard (Word, Scientific WorkPlace, Latex, PDF). Las tablas, gráficos y figuras deberán situarse en ficheros independientes. 5. La Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces facilitará la difusión electrónica de los documentos de trabajo. Del mismo modo, se incentivará económicamente su posterior publicación en revistas científicas de reconocido prestigio.