IARU Climate Change Congress, Copenhagen, March 10-12 2009
Climate Change: Impact, Adaptation And Integrated Groundwater Management In The North Sea And Baltic Sea Regions Hinsby, K.; Sonnenborg, TO; Henriksen, HJ; Villholth, KG, Rasmussen, P; Christensen, BSB and van Roosmalen, L.
[email protected] (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, GEUS)
Climate change call for new improved tools for simulating responses in the hydrological cycle as the basis of planning of adaptive measures and future land use. Two new EU “Interreg” projects funded by the European Regional Development Funds of the North Sea Region (NSR project: CLIWAT, 2008-2011) and the Baltic Sea Region (BSR project: BaltCICA, 2009-2011) will provide new insight into possible hydrological responses of the climate change scenarios A2 and B2 in the region through investigation of impacts in more than 20 case study areas in 11 EU countries.
Important tools such as groundwater and integrated surface and subsurface transient hydrological models are developed and applied to evaluate e.g. 1) Seasonal changes in precipitation, water tables and stream runoff (van Roosmalen et al. 2007, 2009) 2) Flooding (from groundwater, rivers and the sea), 3) Saltwater intrusion in coastal zones, and 4) Groundwater status based on e.g. good status objectives for associated aquatic ecosystems according to the EU Water Framework and Groundwater Directives. (Hinsby et al. 2008)
www.baltcica.org www.cliwat.org CLIWAT Case study sites BaltCICA Case study sites
Copenhagen
Tampere
Bergen
Helsinki Hanko Tallinn West Estonian Coast
North Vidzeme Biospere Reserve
North Sea
Riga Aarhus river Egebjerg
Kalundborg COPENHAGEN
Schleswig and Sdr. Jylland
Baltic Sea
Satellite photo of chlorophyll-a in the North Sea and Baltic Sea region indicating algal blooms. Coastal and marine waters in the region are strongly affected by eutrophication. Expected increase in winter precipitation (and nutrient leachage) and sea temperatures will increase the risk of eutrophication, algal blooms and seafloor hypoxia/anoxia. Adaptation of land use and agricultural practices are required in order to reduce the risk of algal blooms, seafloor anoxia and achieve good status objectives of EU directives. Data processed by GRAS A/S (www.gras.ku.dk).
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Island of Falster
Borkum
Terschelling and Northern Fryslan
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Coastal Zone of MecklenburgWestern Pommerania Belgische Middenkust
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Hamborg Metropolitan region Change in water table (m)
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Map showing the location of the case study sites of the CLIWAT and BaltCICA projects in the North Sea and Baltic Sea regions, respectively. Both projects will develop and apply integrated geological/geophysical and hydrological models for evaluation and demonstration of predicted effects of climate change scenarios in selected regions. The models will serve as the main prediction tool with respect to climate induced changes to groundwater quantity and quality and flooding risks. The results of the simulations will be presented on local and regional thematic maps and in 3D (and 4D) visualisations. Once the geological and integrated hydrological models are established they can be continuously updated and applied in integrated surface and subsurface hydrological modelling as new data on climate change are provided.
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Photo: POLFOTO.
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Simulated absolute change in water tables (groundwater levels) on the Island of Zealand (Sjælland) based on the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios A2 and B2, and precipitation patterns etc. from the climate models HadAM3H and HIRHAM developed by the Hadley Center, and the Danish Meteorological Institute, respectively.
Increase in sealevels and storm surges will increase risk of coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Increased sealevels in combination with increased winter precipitation will increase risk of river and groundwater flooding in the hinterland. The CLIWAT and BaltCICA projects will simulate these impacts for the A2 and B2 scenarios.
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Simulated relative change in stream discharge at station 55.01 (western Zealand) based on the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios A2 and B2, and precipitation patterns etc. from the climate models HadAM3H and HIRHAM developed by the Hadley Center, and the Danish Meteorological Institute, respectively.
References: Hinsby, K., Condesso de Melo, M.T and Dahl, M.. 2008. European case studies supporting the derivation of natural background levels and groundwater threshold values for the protection of dependent ecosystems and human health. Science of the Total Environment, 401, 1-20. Van Roosmalen, L.; Christensen, BSB and Sonnenborg, TO. 2007. Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater and Stream Discharge in Denmark. Vadose Zone Journal, 6, 554-571. Van Roosmalen, L.; Sonnenborg, TO and Jensen, KH. 2009. Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. Water Resources Research, in press, doi:10.1029/2007WR006760.
Part-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund and European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument.)
CLIWAT coordinator: R. Johnsen (
[email protected])
BaltCICA coordinator: J. Klein (
[email protected])
