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Keith was awarded an MBE in the latest New Year's Honours List for services to UK business. ... NEETs in 1971 - descriptive data from the England and Wales.
LONDON’S GLOBAL UNIVERSITY

CONFERENCE BOOK 4TH AUGUST TO 6TH AUGUST

Contents Welcome Message from the Conference Committee ............................................................................ 2 Keynote Speaker Biographies ................................................................................................................. 3 PopFest 2014 Schedule........................................................................................................................... 4 PopFest 2014 Programme and Abstracts ............................................................................................... 7 Session 1 - Population health: social pathways and interventions..................................................... 7 Session 2 - Population resilience in the context of risk ...................................................................... 9 Session 3 - Life course and life chances ............................................................................................11 Session 4 - Population movements: migration and identity.............................................................12 Session 5 - The spatial analysis of crime ...........................................................................................14 Session 6 - Exploring trends in population subgroups......................................................................15 Session 7 - Using Big Data to study populations...............................................................................17 PopFest 2014 Sponsors.........................................................................................................................19 UCL Bloomsbury Campus Map..............................................................................................................20 Notes.....................................................................................................................................................21

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Welcome Message from the Conference Committee Dear PopFest 2014 delegate, It is with enormous pleasure that we welcome you to PopFest 2014, the 22nd Annual Postgraduate Population Studies Conference, hosted by the UCL Department of Geography. PopFest exists to help population researchers in the early stages of their academic careers develop their ideas and skills, as well as gain inspiration from others from a variety of disciplines. Looking at the diversity and quality of research showcased in the abstracts elsewhere in this booklet, we are confident this year’s delegates will go on to greater things! We are very lucky to be able to welcome some excellent keynote speakers to the conference. Monday’s keynote will be given by Professor Emily Grundy, a previous President of the British Society for Population Studies and former Secretary General and Treasurer of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Tuesday’s keynote will be given by Dr James Cheshire and Dr Dan Lewis and will provide insight into their own population research, their postgraduate experiences and potential career progression. Finally, the keynote on Wednesday will be given by Keith Dugmore MBE. Keith brings a commercial perspective to population studies and is involved with the ESRC in engaging academia with retail companies. In addition to this, PopFest 2014 features nearly 30 oral presentations in 7 sessions from you and the other delegates attending. We would like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank everybody who has contributed towards making PopFest 2014 possible. This includes a number of people from all over UCL and beyond, and includes those who have provided us with help and advice, and those who have given up their time voluntarily to help out over the course of the conference. Of course a special mention must go to our sponsors: without them we couldn’t even consider holding such an event. Most of all we’d like to thank you for supporting the conference with your attendance and your enthusiasm. We were delighted to have received a high number of responses to the call to papers, and believe the quality of submissions we received reflects the dynamism and vibrancy of contemporary research into matters of population. Finally, we hope that the experience of attending PopFest 2014 will whet your appetite for a 23rd incarnation. Any attendees who think they’d like to take on the challenge and consider hosting the conference at their institution next year should speak to one of the organising committee. We can assure them that it has been a rewarding experience!

Kind Thanks, Chris, Alistair, Guy, Kira and Jens The PopFest 2014 Organising Committee

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Keynote Speaker Biographies Professor Emily Grundy

Emily is a Professor of Demography in the Department of Social Policy at the London School of Economics. She is also Director of the National Centre for Research Methods PATHWAYs node which investigates biosocial influences on health. Most of Emily's research has been focussed on ageing. Her main interests are in families, households and social support in later life; trends and differentials in health and disability, and the long term consequences of partnership and parenting trajectories for health and well-being in later life.

Dr James Cheshire and Dr Dan Lewis

James and Dan both completed their PhDs a couple of years ago and are now at the start of their careers in academia. James is now a lecturer at UCL and Dan is a Research Fellow at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Their joint keynote will cover the population related research they have undertaken, and their personal experiences of completing a PhD and how they went about starting their current careers.

Keith Dugmore MBE

Keith is the Director of Demographic Decisions Ltd. and Demographics User Group. He is widely respected within the demographics community and brings a commercial perspective to population studies in the UK. Keith set up Demographic Decisions in 1996, which provides impartial consultancy advice to users of demographic data. In 1998 he also set up the Demographics User Group, whose objective is to represent to government the needs of commercial users of its demographic statistics. Keith was awarded an MBE in the latest New Year’s Honours List for services to UK business.

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PopFest 2014 Schedule Organiser | UCL Department of Geography Venue | Room G07 · Pearson Building · UCL · Gower Street · London WC1E 6BT Date | 4th to 6th August 2014

Monday, 4th August 2014 12.30 pm

| Registration and lunch

1.45 pm

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2.00 pm

3.00 pm

Welcome and introduction Speaker: Chris Gale, University College London Keynote – Population ageing and later life health: European perspectives | Speaker: Prof Emily Grundy, Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science | Coffee break

3.20 pm – 5.00 pm

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3.20 pm

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3.45 pm

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4.10 pm

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4.35 pm

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5.00 pm

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5.30 pm

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Session 1 – Population health: social pathways and interventions Chair: Jens Kandt, University College London Obesity and friendship networks Speaker: Andrea Apolloni, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Virtual field trips: physically active lessons for kids Speaker: Emma Norris, University College London The Care Life Cycle Project and researching the use of Telecare to support people with dementia Speaker: Katherine Penny, University of Southampton Imperative for innovation in combating HIV/AIDS beyond 2015: growing evidence for community-based HIV screening and prospects of pharmacy-based screening Speaker: Opeyemi Akindele, University of Bedfordshire Data quality issues with reporting sexual behaviours among adolescents and young people Speaker: Elsie Akwara, University of Southampton Barbecue Venue: UCL Main Quad

Tuesday, 5th August 2014 9.30 am – 11.10 pm 9.30 am

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Session 2 – Population resilience in the context of risk Chair: Alexandra Gomes, London School of Economics RadPop: spatiotemporal profiling for vulnerable population subgroups. Speaker: Becky Martin, University of Southampton A national coastal erosion vulnerability model for Scotland Speaker: James Fitton, University of Glasgow Gender inequalities and HIV infections in Uganda: Evidence from multilevel modelling of population-based surveys Speaker: Patrick Igulot, City University London Financial sustainability in transition countries Speaker: Ayse Demir, University of Leicester

9.55 am

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10.20 pm

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10.45 pm

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11.10 am

| Coffee Break

11.30 am – 1.10pm

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11.30 pm

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11.55 pm

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12.20 am

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12.45 pm

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1.10 pm

| Lunch

2.00 pm

Keynote – Population, Postgraduate Experiences, and Career Progress | Speakers: Dr James Cheshire, University College London and Dr Daniel Lewis, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

3.00 pm

| Coffee break

3.20 pm – 5.00 pm

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3.20 pm

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3.45 pm

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4.10 pm

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5.00 pm

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7.00 pm

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Session 3 – Life course and life chances Chair: Jens Kandt, University College London NEETs in 1971 - descriptive data from the England and Wales Longitudinal Study Speaker: Wei Xun, University College London Clustering health-related behaviours and their association with subjective health outcomes using two British cohort studies Speaker: Claire Mawditt, University College London Economic inactivity: a risk factor for later life cognitive decline? Speaker: Alison Sizer, University College London Victimisation of adults with autism and learning difficulties – a systematic review Speaker: Sam Mukhopadhyay, King’s College London

Session 4 – Population movements: migration and identity Chair: Guy Lansley, University College London Transnational families: an intergenerational perspective on issues of culture and identity among Greek-Cypriot communities in England Speaker: Gina Kallis, Plymouth University Household resilience among refugee and forced migrant Arabic speaking families in the UK Speaker: Hoayda Darkal, Plymouth University Economic crisis, out-migration and return from Spain Speaker: Ana Sanchis, Queen Mary University of London London Walk Guides: Dr Martin Zaltz Austwick and Dr Adam Dennett Dinner Venue: Tas Turkish Restaurant, Bloomsbury 5

Wednesday, 6th August 2014 9.30 am – 11.10 am

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9.30 am

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9.55 am

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10.20 am

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10.45 am

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11.10 am

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11.30 pm – 1.10 pm

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11.30 am

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11.55 pm

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12.20 pm

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12.45 pm

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1.10 pm

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2.00 pm

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3.00 pm

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3.20 pm – 5.00 pm

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3.20 pm

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3.45 pm

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Session 5 – The spatial analysis of crime Chair: Kira Kowalska, University College London Fear of crime on transport Speaker: Reka Solymosi, University College London Examining the spatio-temporal structure of public confidence in the police Speaker: Dawn Williams, University College London Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistics (STSS) for crime prediction Speaker: Monsuru Adepeju, University College London Mapping property crime and demographic factors – a developing country perspective Speaker: Faisal Umar, University College London Coffee Break Session 6 – Exploring trends in population subgroups Chair: Alistair Leak, University College London Spatial variations of demographic change in England 2001-2011 Speaker: Nigel de Noronha, University of Manchester The New Output Area Classification Speaker: Chris Gale, University College London Variations in commuting behaviour by socio-demographic and geographic characteristics of individuals Speaker: Thomas Murphy, University of Leeds UK Census and Workplace Zones Speaker: Robin Edwards, University College London Lunch Keynote – The value of population analysis to commercial companies Speaker: Keith Dugmore MBE, Director of Demographic Decisions Ltd. and Demographics User Group Coffee break Session 7 – Using Big Data to study populations Chair: Chris Gale, University College London Exploring the geography of the registered addresses of car models through a bespoke car classification Speaker: Guy Lansley, University College London Using Twitter data as demographic data – towards a seamless World Names Database Speaker: Alistair Leak, University College London UCL Master Projects – 4 short presentations Juntao Lai, UCL: Investigating the spatio-temporal patterns of hot topics generated from twitter data transmitted around London tube stations. Nicholas Samson, UCL: Using smart meter data to determine energy efficiency of customers' homes. Yiran Wei, UCL: How open data resources can be used to define a composite measure of Cultural Identity & Heritage for the UK population. David Egginton, UCL: A quantitative comparative analysis of geodemographic classifications and their potential application in the targeting of philanthropic fundraising initiatives.

4.10 pm

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4.45 pm

| Discussion Concluding remarks and conference close | Speaker: Chris Gale, University College London

5.00 pm 6

PopFest 2014 Programme and Abstracts Session 1 - Population health: social pathways and interventions Obesity and friendship networks Andrea Apolloni, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Achla Marathe, Virginia Tech, and Zhengzheng Pan, Facebook Inc. Obesity has become a global epidemic. The spread of obesity requires no physical proximity but may be influenced by a close relationship with the transmitter. We use AddHealth Dataset to show that friendship networks are important in building weight perception, setting weight goals and measuring social marginalization. The analysis shows how does individual weight perception is formed and how this can be used to inform youth health policies. Email: [email protected] Virtual field trips: physically active lessons for kids Emma Norris, Dr Nicola Shelton, Dr Sandra Dunsmuir and Dr Oliver Duke-Williams University College London, Emmanouil Stamatakis, University of Sydney Although largely recognised to enhance learning outcomes; classroom technology currently helps foster a sedentary school working environment in children. Little research has assessed educational technology’s capacity to improve dwindling child activity levels via physically active classroom sessions. With an inherent geographical basis, Virtual Field Trips (VFTs) via interactive whiteboards are one teaching method with currently untapped potential as a physically active teaching tool. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of a physically active VFT by assessing practical issues and user evaluations. A pilot sample (n=85) were randomly assigned to a physically active or sedentary version of the same developed Olympic-themed VFT. Findings show no detrimental effects of an active versus sedentary VFT on learning outcomes. Active VFT students rated their session significantly higher than sedentary pupils. Processes used in this feasibility study are evaluated, leading to solutions and ideas for future physically active VFT research. Email: [email protected] The Care Life Cycle Project and researching the use of Telecare to support people with dementia Katherine Penny, Professor Sally Brailsford and Professor Maria Evandrou, University of Southampton This research is looking at the use of telecare to meet the social care needs of people with dementia within the UK’s ageing population. Dementia is not a single illness but a group of progressive symptoms that occur when the brain becomes damaged by certain conditions, such as Alzheimer's disease. Symptoms include memory loss, mood changes, communication difficulties and confusion; leading to increased dependency on other people. The risk of developing dementia increases with age, affecting mostly people over the age of 65. According to the Alzheimer’s Society there are currently around 820, 000 people living with dementia in the United Kingdom; a figure that is set to rise to over one million by 2021. With this in mind the UK government is keen to explore different options to meet the increasing demand on social care services; one such option is: telecare. Telecare equipment allows remote care by automatically sending a signal to a carer, community alarm or monitoring service so that support can be called for when it is needed. Telecare can help people with dementia to maintain their independence, delaying or even eliminating the need for residential care. 7

In order to examine telecare as a service option discrete event simulation (DES) is being used to model the system, incorporating the facilitating and obstructive factors that influence telecare uptake for people with dementia. The aim is to look the impact telecare has on residential care admissions and therefore its ability to help people to remain living in their own homes. Email: [email protected] Imperative for innovation in combating HIV/AIDS beyond 2015: growing evidence for communitybased HIV screening and prospects of pharmacy-based screening Opeyemi Akindele and Dr Anthony Farrant, University of Bedfordshire Our research focuses on how HIV screening uptake might be improved for Black African migrants in the United Kingdom (UK). The UK is ranked 11th out of top 20 countries with the highest population of migrants in the world, and second only to Germany in Europe (Hawkins, 2014; International Migration Report, 2002). After London (36%), the South East region, which includes Luton, has the second highest proportion of its population foreign born (11.7%), the UK average being 12% (ONS, 2008; Hawkins, 2014). While international migration has positive impacts such as cultural enrichment and increased manpower (Adepoju, 2007) one downside of human migration of interest is the spread of diseases. HIV epidemic need be tackled among migrants from high prevalence countries and within the countries themselves, if progress already made in less impacted countries must be sustained and taken further. International migration is a key factor which affects the dynamics of global HIV epidemic and a reasonable and significant control of HIV/AIDS nationally and globally largely depends on how it is managed especially among migrants from high prevalence countries. Consequently, it is pertinent to provide a health system and public health interventions that guarantee improved HIV testing uptake and early diagnosis among migrants from SSA, the most mobile region of the world but which, unfortunately, carries the highest HIV/AIDS burden both by proportion and absolute numbers among regions of the world (UNAIDS, 2012). Email: [email protected] Data quality issues with reporting sexual behaviours among adolescents and young people Elsie Akwara, University of Southampton Data quality during data collection and interviews may be affected in various ways, especially on secretive and sensitive topics like sexual health and behaviours. This paper provides an overview of the factors that impact on data quality on sexual behaviour among adolescents and young people. A review of published literature was conducted to determine factors that affect data quality on sexual behaviour among young people aged 15-24 years. The main factors affecting data quality include poor comprehension of questions, recall bias, underreporting of socially sanctioned behaviour and over-reporting of socially desirable behaviour, long questionnaires that result in boredom of respondents, lack of privacy during interviews, and interviewing techniques. To ensure data quality on sexual behaviour, a triangulation of methods need to be used in order to ensure consistency and accuracy of information is reported. Email: [email protected]

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Session 2 - Population resilience in the context of risk RadPop: spatiotemporal profiling for vulnerable population subgroups. Becky Martin, Professor David Martin and Dr Samantha Cockings, University of Southampton Vulnerability is not uniform across populations, due to the differential impacts of age and gender, and change in status over time due to hazard exposure. Different demographic groups display unique spatiotemporal profiles and exhibit characteristic spatial trends over hourly, daily and seasonal timescales. The ability to accurately estimate the spatiotemporal profile of both exposed population and radiation hazard offers significant improvements. Sophisticated spatiotemporal models exist for radiation dispersal, but there have not been equivalent advances in modelling of population statistics. Previous models have represented ambient populations by modelling day and night population distribution, but remain constrained by spatial and temporal scale and administrative geography. This research develops the Population247 approach, which provides a generalised and extensible gridded spatiotemporal population surface framework. Population247 is applied to assess subgroup vulnerability to ionising radiation exposure during a hypothetical nuclear emergency case study, at Her Majesties Naval Base (HMNB) Devonport, Plymouth. This is the UK’s only refitting, refuelling and de-fuelling site for fleet (unarmed) nuclearpowered submarines. A population of 166,000 people live within 5km of the Devonport site and could be at risk, if there were a nuclear emergency (PCC, 2013). This study examines the spatiotemporal change in ionising radiation exposure during nuclear emergency for females, as a subgroup that is physically more susceptible to health effects of exposure. The study also assesses the likelihood of deterministic (immediate) health effects due to dose thresholds from declaration of nuclear emergency across the first six hours of exposure, and considers the effectiveness of sheltering and evacuation. Email: [email protected] A national coastal erosion vulnerability model for Scotland James Fitton and Jim Hansom, University of Glasgow, Alistair Rennie, Scottish Natural Heritage Scotland has an extensive (ca. 18,500 km long) and highly varied coastline with approximately 20% of the Scottish population and 25% of businesses located within 1 km of the coast. Along the coastline areas of local erosion are known to exist, which impacts upon coastal assets and potentially increase coastal flood risk. Despite this, little is known about where coastal erosion occurs on national scales within Scotland. Additionally the socioeconomic impact of coastal erosion has not been assessed and areas of potential high socioeconomic vulnerability to coastal erosion are currently unknown.To address this knowledge shortfall this PhD research has produced a high resolution (50 m cell size) national model of the underlying physical susceptibility of the coastline. To compliment this, a coastal erosion vulnerability model has also been developed. The vulnerability is modelled using a geodemographic database (Experian Mosaic Scotland) using eleven socioeconomic indicators such as health, income, and housing density. The indicators are weighted using the Gini Coefficient method utilised by Willis et al. 2010. Combining these two datasets we can determine the coastal erosion risk by identifying the households which are both physically susceptible to coastal erosion and possess enhanced socioeconomic vulnerability. Key infrastructure, such as transport networks, power plants etc., which are potentially exposed to coastal erosion, can also be identified. These outputs will aid coastal management within Scotland by identifying the areas where resources are most needed to manage coastal erosion risk. Email: [email protected] 9

Gender inequalities and HIV infections in Uganda: Evidence from multilevel modelling of population-based surveys Patrick Igulot, City University London Background There are gender inequalities in HIV&AIDS. In Africa, more than 60 percent of people living with HIV are women. The high vulnerability of women has previously been associated with poverty. However, recent evidence has suggested that women’s vulnerability may be driven by wealth. This has generated controversy as to whether it is poverty or wealth driving HIV infections in women. In this research, we examine the relationship between wealth and poverty and vulnerability to HIV risk in Uganda. Methods Multilevel binary logistic regression is used to model the relationship between poverty and wealth and HIV positive status. Wealth is measured by a proxy of a Household Wealth Index. From the index, five quintiles of lowest, second, middle, fourth, and highest are created. This analysis is based on 39,766 individual cases with HIV test results and 887 clusters which were sampled in the Uganda HIV/AIDS Indicators Survey conducted in 2004-05 and 2011. Results There is a positive relationship between being HIV positive and being wealthy for women adjusted OR 1.36 [1.08–1.72], women who reside in rural areas OR 1.51 [1.30–1.75], and those who live in urban areas OR 1.89 [1.48–2.41] in comparison with men. In the analysis of trends, the gender-HIV association persisted. The adjusted OR for women was 1.20 [1.01–1.41] in 2004-05 and 1.15 [1.00–1.32] in 2011, when compared to men. Conclusion and recommendation Women are more vulnerable to HIV infection than men in Uganda. Urban women have 89 percent higher risk than men, rural women have 51 percent higher risk than men, and wealthy women or women living in wealthy households have 36 percent higher risk than men. To prevent HIV infections, policies and strategies need to address gender-based and regional inequalities in wealth and poverty. Email: [email protected] Financial sustainability in transition countries Ayse Demir, University of Leicester This paper aims to shed light on the role of financial development on the growth dynamics of transition countries. Particularly, the impacts of several financial development indicators (in terms of size and efficiency) on the income level in 25 transition economies and two subgroups with varying intensities of socio-economic development are empirically examined. The countries of interest tend to have weaker financial system in comparison with the advanced markets. Subgroups are formed for 16 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) transition economies and 9 former Soviet Union (CIS) members in order to conduct panel data estimations with a time period of 1990 - 2013. Findings, clearly suggest that, improvements in the financial system (size measurements) are highly associated with rising income levels for all country groups. Increase in liberalization of interest rates, private credit and banking lending affect the income level in the CEE lower than in the CIS. According to results, high interest rate spreads (efficiency indicator) negatively affect economic growth and remains statistically significant even if size measurements are included in the regression for both group of countries, indicating that an unsubstantial increase in the size of financial intermediation does not affect growth unless it is also followed by banking efficiency developments and rising competition in the banking sector. Email: [email protected]

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Session 3 - Life course and life chances NEETs in 1971 - descriptive data from the England and Wales Longitudinal Study Wei Xun, Rebecca Lacy, Nicola Shelton and Chris Marshall, University College London The recent recession has highlighted the substantial scale of youth unemployment in the UK and worldwide. Although it is assumed that for most young people, being a NEET is a temporary hiatus and sometimes a necessary step in the transition from adolescence into adulthood and subsequent financial independence, for some the disadvantages of economic inertia at this stage in the life course can have long-term effects on their socio-economic outlook later on. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of being a NEET in 1971 has on a young person’s future economic participation; hence, to what extent does a ‘shadow’ exist in socio-economic terms in the UK. Using the data from the England and Wales Longitudinal Study (LS), we will identify NEETs from a representative sample of 1% of the E&W census population aged 15-29 years in 1971, and follow them for 10 and then 20 years to examine the differences in their destination employment status and occupation compared with their non-NEET counterparts. Email: [email protected] Clustering health-related behaviours and their association with subjective health outcomes using two British cohort studies Claire Mawditt, UCL Department of Epidemiology and Public Health Background: Research findings indicate that multiple health behaviours relate to one another and do not co-occur within individuals by chance alone. Clustering methods have been used to identify the associations between health behaviours. However, there is very little research investigating the biological, psychological and social determinants of health behaviour clusters and the longitudinal relationships between those clusters and health outcomes. Aims: This study aims to identify the clustered patterns of four health related behaviours and their relationship with subjective health outcomes over time. Research questions include: how do health behaviours cluster together in adults born 12 years apart? How are latent health behaviour clusters in mid-adulthood (age 33 or 34) and health outcomes 8-9 years later (age 42) associated? How do biological, psychological and social factors across the lifecourse interrelate with clustering health related behaviours and health outcomes in adulthood? Methods: This study uses data from two British birth cohort studies: the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study (BCS70). The four health behaviours are: smoking (never, ex, and current numbers of cigarettes per day), alcohol use (quantity and frequency), diet (consumption frequency of 5 food groups), exercise (frequency).Two subjective health outcomes will be included: self-rated health and mental health indicated by the Malaise Inventory. The model also includes biological, psychological and social factors in childhood and adulthood. Latent Profile Analysis will be used to identify the clustered patterns of health behaviours in each birth cohort study. Multivariate regression and path analysis will be used to identify the longitudinal association between latent health behaviour clusters and subjective health outcomes. Biological, psychological and social factors will be included in structural models, in order to estimate their effect on the relationship between latent health behaviour clusters and subjective health outcomes. Implications: The results of this study will contribute to both research and public health practice in the area of health related behaviours. Identifying specific health behaviour clusters and the association of these clusters with health outcomes will guide relevant policies and interventions that can target homogeneous subgroups of the population. 11

Email: [email protected] Economic inactivity: a risk factor for later life cognitive decline? Alison Sizer, UCL Department of Epidemiology and Public Health This presentation provides an outline of PhD research study, currently in its first year, to examine the association of non-employment with cognitive function and cognitive decline in members of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), 1946 Birth Cohort, and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). It will also examine if the different states a person is in when economically inactive have differing associations with cognitive function and decline. The presentation highlights previous research that has taken place, gaps in the research, the aims and objectives of the study, and the methodology to be used. Data analysis is in the very early stages and therefore preliminary findings will not be presented. Email: [email protected] Victimisation of adults with autism and learning difficulties – a systematic review Sam Mukhopadhyay, King’s College London Disability hate crime is a serious issue that has profound human cost to its victims and to society in general. The seriousness and extent of disability hate crime – plus its causes and effects – have been captured in a series of reports and publications by the Government and numerous third party organisations, over the years. There is considerable interest in the topic. The term, disability hate crime, is most commonly used within public bodies, including the police, Crown Prosecution Service and local authorities. Yet there is no official definition to objectively define it. The literature is currently very sparse in identifying and contextualising disability hate crime and how victimisation occurs within the Autism and learning disabilities population. This systematic review is an attempt to connect, consolidate and scrutinise the current academic literature in the field of research related to studying aspects of victimisation and disability hate crime. Of interest, but not exclusive, is to observe whether current data trends reflect a difference in rates of victimisation of individuals with autism and LD in comparison to the general public. If there are differences in rates, then what is currently in place to address the discrepancies? Additionally, what networks or support are currently present to alleviate the experiences of the victims. Additionally, recommendations will be made with regards to further research within the field. Email: [email protected]

Session 4 - Population movements: migration and identity Transnational families: an intergenerational perspective on issues of culture and identity among Greek-Cypriot communities in England Speaker: Gina Kallis, Plymouth University This research aims to take an intergenerational perspective to explore whether cultures of home and family influence the identities of individuals within Greek-Cypriot migrant families in the UK. This aim is particularly necessary at a time when levels of migration have increased resulting in a number of complex issues that migrants face in their everyday lives. There is growing acknowledgment across a number of disciplines of the need to explore the everyday lives of migrants and processes of transnationalism across all generations. Despite this acknowledgment, research on second and third generation migrants and issues of their identity and belonging remain limited. In-depth interviews will be held with three generations of Greek-Cypriot migrants living in two locations in the UK as well as focus groups with the second and third generation. As well as exploring the ways in which 12

intergenerational relations are formed within the families and the impacts these have on the formation of individuals’ identities, intergenerational and gender differences will be investigated in relation to personal values and expectations for the future. This research is particularly timely as there is growing consensus within the discipline of Geography that ‘life course’ matters, yet researchers often focus on the margins: namely the very old or the young. To overcome this tendency, more relational geographies of age are needed and an exploration of how individuals organise themselves in relation to others. Intergenerationality is a focal point of these more relational geographies of age. Email: [email protected] Household resilience among refugee and forced migrant Arabic speaking families in the UK Hoayda Darkal, Plymouth University Conflicts and political changes affect society, families and individuals significantly. Waves of migrants and refugees are much possibly generated as a result, and households in particular become shattered. Yet, families try with much effort to reconstruct their lives in the new environment, which shows different degrees of resilience. This issue has been facing millions of households since the Arab Spring started in 2011. The UK represents one of the major destinations for Arab and Kurd migrants and asylum seekers, who manage to escape the current chaos in their home countries. Hence, the British society has become the ‘new home’ for many. This research will be focusing on the way these families are being resilient and to what extent they succeed in doing so. Household resilience will be studied in regards to the cultural, economic and gender roles aspects. In addition, coping strategies and connections with who is left behind will be investigated. Semi- structured interviews alongside with focus groups meetings are believed to be the proper tools, in order to get the enquired data base. Results are expected to differ between households, who are coming from different Arab countries. Furthermore, ethnic and religious diversity might show variety of outcomes too. Very few resilience studies have been done on household level and usually are focused on natural hazards. Hence, this research would be helpful in widening such area of study. In addition, providing up-to-date knowledge of the new residents will be helpful in drawing migration, social and economic policy in the UK. Moreover, a better understanding of the post-conflict forced migrant families is believed to be quite useful. Email: [email protected] Economic crisis, out-migration and return from Spain Ana Sanchis, Queen Mary University of London Economic crisis is having some consequences in demographic dynamics and social conditions in Spain, especially for foreigners as one of the vulnerable collectives. In Spain, immigration increased exponentially from the end of 20th century until 2010 reaching 12,22% of foreign population. Many of them worked in the building sector and the housing bubble’s crisis has caused that the highest unemployment rate for men from non-European countries, around 35-40%. Other social and economic indicators also show us that the most affected by economic crisis are international foreigners and European foreigners. Therefore, the migration balance in Spain became negative from 2010 and around 85% of Spanish out-migrants weren’t born in Spain. The majority of population who is migrating to Latin-American countries are returning to their born countries. USA is the second destiny in the American continent to out-migrate from 2010 and population who decide to migrate to other European countries choose UK, Germany and France as destinies. Email: [email protected] 13

Session 5 - The spatial analysis of crime Fear of crime on transport Reka Solymosi, Taku Fujiyama and Kate Bowers, University College London Fear of crime has consequences independent of crime; people will often avoid areas and transport modes they perceive as unsafe, reducing accessibility and sustainable transport mode choices. Currently, fear of crime is measured by retrospective surveys, which provide an inaccurate measure reflecting generalised worries, and aggregate geographic information about fear broadly and statically to neighbourhoods based on respondents’ place of residence, ignoring other places they may encounter fearful events. To gain a more accurate understanding of people’s everyday experiences with fear of crime, an experience sampling survey method can be applied to a mobile phone application that combines inbuilt sensor data capturing time and GPS position with participants’ feelings of safety recorded by the survey. Data collected in this way reflects an insight into people’s everyday experiences with fear of crime, and highlights specific hotspots in place and time that could benefit from targeted interventions aimed at making people feel safer as they go about their every-day journeys. Measuring fear of crime at such a micro scale spatially and temporally provides an innovation in mapping subjective perceptions and experiences in the urban environment. Email: [email protected] Examining the spatio-temporal structure of public confidence in the police Dawn Williams, Tao Cheng and James Haworth, University College London Improving public confidence in the police is one of the most important issues for the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS/Met). In fact, the Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime (MOPAC) and the Met have agreed to the goal of improving public confidence in the Met by 20% up to 75% by 2016. However, the Met is currently not on track to achieving this target. Public confidence in the police is a complex relationship with many constituent factors. Furthermore, levels of confidence vary throughout geographical space and change over time. Improvement in the analysis of the MPS Public Attitude Survey data can allow these increasingly complex patterns to be discovered. Classical statistics assume that all observations are independent and identically distributed (iid). For spatial or time series data this assumption is generally inappropriate. Local models (as opposed to global models) are more likely to uncover meaningful relationships between the variables under examination. A useful first step to formulating a local model is autocorrelation analysis. Autocorrelation describes the similarity between observations as a function of the temporal, spatial or spatio-temporal distance between them. Examining the underlying spatio-temporal autocorrelation structure of public confidence is an important step toward modelling this intrinsic variability in space and time. Email: [email protected]

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Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistics (STSS) for crime prediction Monsuru Adepeju and Professor Tao Cheng, University College London Allocating police resources proactively to areas of transiently elevated crime severity (emerging hotspots) is an effective strategy to reduce crime (Short et al. 2009). However, the effectiveness of this strategy depends on the capability of the hotspot detection method to provide adequate warnings (tipping points) and systematic monitoring of the emerging hotspots. The use of spacetime kernel density estimation (STKDE) as a hotspot detection method has previously been limited to visualisation of historical crime hotspots, which are then used to anticipate long-term police interventions. This approach is considered less useful for predictive policing in which short-term interventions are required in areas where a crime hotspot is rapidly emerging. This study considers the application of STKDE for prospective hotspot detection, in which emerging crime hotspots are identified before they reach their maximum level of severity. In our approach we segment historical crime datasets into small temporal partitions (daily and weekly), append the segmented dataset cumulatively while the STKDE of each cumulated dataset is being carried out. The preliminary results obtained show that STKDE has the potentials to give warnings and reveal emerging patterns in the crime dataset if implemented appropriately. This approach is currently being validated by comparison with other existing detection methods such as space-time scan statistics (STSS). Email: [email protected] Mapping property crime and demographic factors – a developing country perspective Faisal Umar, University College London Central to the process of most spatial analysis of crime are two types of data: the crime incidents dataset - typically obtainable from police departments, and demographic characteristics that are usually drawn from population censuses. Where such datasets do not exist or are extremely difficult to obtain, it becomes challenging to understand and provide empirical explanations as to why crime occurs at certain places but not in others. This presentation describes the processes involved in the mapping and analysis of crime incidents and the recording of key environmental and social indicators of crime in Kaduna metropolis - Nigeria. This kind of study is important in the process of analyzing crime at place particularly in developing countries such as Nigeria where spatially referenced crime and population datasets are either non-existent or not accessible. Email: [email protected]

Session 6 - Exploring trends in population subgroups Spatial variations of demographic change in England 2001-2011 Nigel de Noronha, University of Manchester Between 2001 and 2011 the number of people aged 65 or over has grown by 16% to 8.6 million people in England. The growing number of older people led to new policies on ageing during this decade. These policies promoted independence and well-being in contrast to discourses of dependence and deficit. They identified the need for integrated public service approaches to encourage this policy transformation. This paper explores evidence of changes to living arrangements of older people from the censuses for 2001 and 2011. The paper explores the geography of change for people aged over 65. Between 2001 and 2011 the proportion of older people living by themselves fell slightly to 31%; the number living in couples increased slightly to 54% and the number of older people living in households with younger people 15

increased by more than four times to nearly 2 million. The number of older people from most ethnic minority backgrounds grew faster than the White British group. There were one million more women aged 65 or over than men. More than 60% of households where all residents were aged 65 or over had someone living with a limiting long-term illness. These overall changes mask significant spatial variation. This paper explores the variation, suggests a number of potential explanations and identifies areas for future research. Email: [email protected] The New Output Area Classification Chris Gale, University College London The 2011 Area Classification for Output Areas (2011 OAC) is a new open and free geodemographic classification of the UK based on 2011 UK Census data. The 2011 OAC, created in partnership with the Office for National Statistics (ONS), supersedes the 2001 Area Classification for Output Areas (2001 OAC) to provide the most current open geodemographic view of the UK. The 2001 OAC was widely used in academia, local government and by commercial organisations, but its reliance on data from the 2001 UK Census has led to a perceived degradation of reliability over time and a decline in users. The release of the 2011 UK Census data provided the opportunity to create a 2011 OAC which could address some of the acknowledged flaws of the 2001 OAC, such as the methods used for data handling, to create a more robust methodology. The publication of this methodology with accompanying documentation, in addition to utilising open-source software, guarantees the reproducibility of the 2011 OAC; with an additional benefit of the methodology being able to act as a template for future bespoke open geodemographic classifications. These methodological advances and adoption of open source software mean the 2011 OAC can be considered a step forward for open geodemographics in the UK. Email: [email protected] Variations in commuting behaviour by socio-demographic and geographic characteristics of individuals Thomas Murphy, Professor John Stillwell and Dr Lisa Buckner, University of Leeds Commuting to work is an activity that is carried out with regularity by the vast majority of individuals in employment. It is, therefore, a very important part of the routine of daily or weekly life for most of the working population. However, subgroups of this population travel to work over different distances and use different modes of transport. It is highly unlikely that the commuting distance or mode of a young, black female, with a limiting long-term illness living in the relatively poor North East of England, for example, will be the same as that of an older, white, healthy male living in the relatively wealthy South East of England. Therefore, commute distance and mode of transport vary by sociodemographic and geographic variables and it is the variation that this paper seeks to identify, analyze and understand. The analysis uses microdata from the 1991 and 2001 Census Samples of Anonymised Records for England and Wales and adopts Binary Logistic Regression as the methodology to quantify the main effects of, and interaction effects between, a series of sociodemographic and geographic predictors, including age, sex, ethnicity, health, childcare, occupation and regional of usual residence, on the binary response variable. Models are estimated for both 1991 and 2001 samples to establish where changes have taken place during the 1990s. Ultimately, the findings will inform policy suggestions for implementation by regional or local governments or other organizations with responsibility for supplying and maintaining transport networks. 16

Email: [email protected] UK Census and Workplace Zones Robin Edwards, University College London The 'modern' UK census is now into its 3rd century, and yet continues to evolve to accommodate the changing demands of government, bureaucracy, society and academia. A significant recently development has been the introduction of Workplace Zones as a product of the 2011 Census, a new system of geographical divisions based on respondents' work locations. The result is a fresh series of demographic and economic datasets with higher central urban resolution. This development is discussed in historical and modern contexts, and its implications evaluated from a geospatial methodology perspective. Email: [email protected]

Session 7 - Using Big Data to study populations Exploring the geography of the registered addresses of car models through a bespoke car classification Guy Lansley, University College London In 2013 there were 29.2 million registered cars in Great Britain, and the 2011 UK Censuses confirmed that almost 75% of households had access to at least one car or van. Despite this, the DVLA’s database of car model registrations remains underexplored as an indicator of household characteristics. Car ownership itself has been frequently considered as a census proxy variable for affluence in the past. However, this is now a dated interpretation as car ownership has become more widespread across society and the value of automobiles range considerably, additionally ownership is influenced by several factors asides from disposable income. Understanding the geography of different car models is likely be more informative of local population characteristics as the choice of model purchase is dependent on several factors, notably including the cost and the purpose of the vehicle. In partnership with the DFT and the DVLA, a car classification was produced which grouped every car model registered in Great Britain in 2011 into 10 distinctive categories based on the key characteristics of the vehicle. The DVLA then made the total number of registered cars for each classification category available at a small are geography (LSOA) to be analysed. The dataset was then explored to reveal distinctive spatial patterns exerted between car model types at the neighbourhood level. The findings were then compared to key 2011 Census variables and 2011 house price data from the Land Registry to understand how social standing and life stage relate to patterns in car consumption between neighbourhoods. Email: [email protected] Using Twitter data as demographic data – towards a seamless World Names Database Alistair Leak, University College London Population registers fill a fundamental role in much population research forming the backbone of many demographic datasets and providing a unique viewpoint into population structure. Whilst much research analyses such registers in national isolation, there is a shift in academia towards hybrid international registers composed of data from multiple sources. This paper sets out to address the limitations of one such register, the World Names Database which is presently representative of two Billion of the Earth’s population. A synthesis of electoral roll and telephone directory data for 26 countries, the database is limited in its expansion by availability of publically available national population registers. Subsequently, this study sets out to develop a series of proxy 17

registers based on geo-located Twitter data. Analysing a corpus of over 1 Billion Tweets, the study seeks to infer key identity components based of users screen names and location histories; specifically forename, surname and residential location. Prior to the deployment of the methodology, its utility is demonstrated against conventional data sources of known provenance; specifically the UK Electoral Roll and the Spanish Telephone Directory. Further, the prospects and pitfalls of this approach to constructing population registers are assessed. The study concludes with an assessment of social media based population registers as a proxy for traditional registers and demonstrates potential applications of such data. Email: [email protected]

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PopFest 2014 Sponsors PopFest 2014 would not have been possible were it not for the financial support of a handful of key sponsors who are listed below. Demographic User Group, http://www.demographicsusergroup.co.uk/ UCL Department of Geography, http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/ Population Geography Research Group, http://popgeog.org/ UCL Security Doctoral Research Centre, http://www.ucl.ac.uk/secret/homepage/

UCL DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY

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UCL Bloomsbury Campus Map

UCL Pearson Building (Please use the main entrance. This is located directly to your left as you enter the Main Quad from Gower Street)

Nearest London Underground Stations Euston Square: Metropolitan Line, Circle Line, Hammersmith and City Line Warren Street: Victoria Line, Northern Line (Charing Cross Branch) Euston: Victoria Line, Northern Line (Charing Cross Branch and Bank Branch) 20

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Front cover: ‘Population Lines’ © James Cheshire

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