Correlation Processing for Asset Health Management

9/6/2015

Correlation Processing for Asset Health Management* | Rudy Shankar | LinkedIn

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Rudy Shankar

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Professor at UNC Charlotte, Energy Production Infrastructure Center

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 Advanced Correlation Processing for Asset Health Management*

Rudy Shankar

Data mining, big data, social media data...these phrases are easily tossed around today and apps routinely unearth relationships between events that are 60 sometimes eerily weird ("Prince fans have more obese children"), sometimes

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patently false and, yes, sometimes stunning ("rise in atmospheric CO2 content This Little Known Tesla Innovation Is A Game Changer Prashin Chaturvedi

Yes You CAN Negotiate Your Salary - Here's How!

and temperature rise"). That's because as we all know computers are faster, better and cheaper and one can, if not Google results, run their own time series correlation algorithms on two sets of data and go to town. Not mentioned often is that false results can result from "garbage" data improper data entries. In the good old days improper entries could be traced to operator error, but nowadays

Liz Ryan

with automated data entries it is difficult to trace the problem.

Why We're So Unhappy With Work — And How to Fix It

So why are we drawn to correlation? Underlying the current popularity is that in

Barry Schwartz

signal processing it is one of the more robust techniques to assess similarities between two sets of time series, if conducted over a sufficiently long interval the

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Are You Promotable? Dr. Travis Bradberry


signals fall and rise together (see figure). But this tool has now only raised deeper questions. For example, if the measure is high, is the relationship a statistical

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freak or causative? Can behavior of one be used to predict the other, with a mother lode of data mining now discovered? Yes, demand for electricity is driven by weather, but not (or perhaps maybe?) by electricity rates as well. Correlation processing might’ve had a significant role in ending the Cold War. During that time, the danger to either superpower was the ability of the other to launch seaborne and undetectable attacks on the other and so retain the element

The Demand for OROP and Its Aftermath Rama lingam

of surprise. Yet the U.S. had an ace up its sleeve. It had set up mileslong twin acoustic fixtures in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean called the SOSUS arrays that could reliably detect enemy submarines transiting from several thousand miles. The correlation among the sensors in the array could distinguish background noise from the sounds emanating from the submarines and detect nuanced information including maneuvers, speed of approach, etc. This number crunching required powerful computers usually sequestered in airconditioned spaces several hundred miles away onshore. The results were processed, with sufficient time to respond since the enemy targets were several thousand miles away and their intentions now revealed clearly. Commercial application of correlation processing was first in the airline industry with Delta Airlines and later Southwest adopting these measures to capture incipient problems in their jet engines during operations. The idea was to analyze realtime data from the engines during takeoff, cruise and landing to see deviations from normality. Correlation processing received a big boost in the power industry in the 1990s through an algorithm called MSET, backed with some fancy statistical footwork with a strong underpinning in hypothesis testing. In an application for equipment monitoring at a nuclear plant, it was demonstrated how data historianacquired data could be processed from several components and the power of correlation and statistical measures used to confirm the presence of anomalies. Engineers could look at socalled closed loop systems whose system behaviors were heavily interrelated. For example, in thermoelectric power plant, the fuel consumption, water flow in the boiler, and the turbine power and their myriad subsystems are closely related. And so the signals from their parameters also should be well correlated. Over the last decade the author has worked with utilities in evaluating vendor technology, developing specifications for utilities, organizing utility interest groups worldwide to leverage correlation technology to improve reliability and broaden knowledge management of equipment failure mechanisms and lessons

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learned. Implementation and experience with fleetwide monitoring in the U.S. is fairly extensive. The author was engaged in many of the early developments and led efforts to increase utility knowledge and participation in these activities. The scope and objectives varied as did the schedule. Many wanted to develop these capabilities to improve plant operations enterprise–wide, regardless of geographic boundaries. Many others focused on equipment reliability and relied on correlation processing for equipment diagnostics to detect incipient failures. Still others looked to this technology for guidance on plant startup and shutdown to maintain uniform and consistent methodologies for combustion turbine fleets. The attractive feature was the ability to operate a virtual center for excellence with experts being able to view the same information via the internet and arrive at consensus decisions on the state of the component under examination. Early utility adopters drew on the power of correlation processing and the potential for thenemerging wireless sensors to perform ondemand monitoring of problem components. Many relied on industry consortia like EPRI to provide guidance. In the beginning the centers raised suspicion among plant staff that this was an attempt to look over their shoulders and assess personnel performance. Some utilities applied change management procedures to address this very compelling HR issue so as not to risk losing out on this attractive technology. Utilities with FWM centers are concentrated on the East Coast, where most of the generating assets are based. As of the time of writing more than 200 GW capacity – 20 percent of the total U.S. capacity – were utilizing correlation processing at their centers and showing healthy return on investment and quick payback periods. With the US grid tending toward more distributed resources, with significant twoway flow of electrons, and the "gridedge" poised to being a significant factor in the management of the grid, correlation processing is expected to play an even more significant role. Some of the applications could be for rapid assessment of damage on remote assets in severe weather and to have timely remediation. Others could include marrying social media data for example Twitter chat GPS coordinates to diagnostics information. For instance, downed poles are sometimes detected by first responders who can provide information location. Still other processing techniques can allow accurate prediction of capacity available from intermittent resources to allow utility planners to confidently include the optimum mix of generation in their resource planning at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/correlationprocessingassethealthassessmentrudyshankar?trk=hpfeedarticletitlelike

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the lowest cost. Yes, indeed! A wellused and reliable tool is here to stay.

*/ Some ideas and excerpts in the posting have been drawn from an article by the author titled "Correlation Processing", Public Utilities Fortnightly, February 2014.

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Correlation Analysis, Asset Management, Utilities

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Rudy Shankar

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John Buckley

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General Counsel | Chief Compliance Officer Great post Rudy Shankar on one hand offering examples of the complexity of Correlation Processing, but on the other demonstrating the substantial benefits of doing so. Like

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Prashin Chaturvedi

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This Little Known Tesla Innovation Is A Game Changer Sep 5, 2015

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No the game changer is not the 2015 Tesla Model S in the picture above. It's the white device shaped like a medievalshield that is blending into the wall behind it. It is a wallmounted lithiumion home battery system designed to store energy from rooftop solar panels. It can hold up to 10 kilowatthours of energy, enough to power a typical home for about 10 hours. It would enable homes to be powered by solar energy during the day and by battery during the night time.

It's called Powerwall, and in 5 years it could be a major cash cow for Tesla

When Powerwall was released in April this year, it received largely negative press. The press assessed that Powerwall at the current price point was uneconomic for the average user, who gets fairly cheap electricity from the grid. Tesla took the negative feedback to heart and came back in June with double the specs with no change in the price. In doing this, Tesla raised the bar on price competitiveness in battery storage marketplace to a whole another level. Correct as the original assessment by the press may have been, it was incomplete. The economics associated with Powerwall may look entirely different in 5 years https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/correlationprocessingassethealthassessmentrudyshankar?trk=hpfeedarticletitlelike

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time than it does today, making it a game changer for Tesla. 3 megatrends are shaking up how we consume energy today

1. Storage Battery Prices are Plummeting Exponentially

The chart above shows a projection that a well known industry expert made in 2014 regarding the cost of lithiumion batteries over the next 15 years. Tesla dramatically fastforwarded this projection by 5 years with the launch of Powerwall in 2015, delivering the rate that was expected in 2020. Once Tesla's Gigafactory becomes operational next year, the price of a Tesla Powerwall could come down even further to half of what it is today by 2020, which the projection above estimated to happen in 2030!

2. Solar Energy Prices are Dropping Dramatically


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The chart above shows the past trend and a future projection made by an MIT professor for solar pricing. If this projections holds, the price of solar energy could come down to one fourth of what it is today by 2020. This projection does not even include the subsidies and buyback programs that governments around the world are offering to encourage the use of solar energy, which could further reduce the prices in the future.

3. Public Support for Alternative Energy is Very Strong

The global Ipsos survey above shows that there is a strong support for alternative energy sources across the world. A Pew survey also shows that Millennials and https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/correlationprocessingassethealthassessmentrudyshankar?trk=hpfeedarticletitlelike

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Gen X, who will become the primary decision makers of public and private policy as Boomers retire, display a much higher support towards alternative energy sources in comparison to previous generations. The support is not only strong, but growing, and solar finds the highest favor in surveys. Bringing it all together The coming together of these 3 megatrends drop in price of storage batteries, drop in price of solar energy, and strong and growing public support for solar energy indicates that we are on the cusp of a rooftop solar + Powerwall revolution, and there is a good chances it will kick off in California.

California is currently in the process of replacing its electricity pricing structure from usagebased (tiered rates use more, pay more) with timeofuse (same rate for all higher during day, lower at night), which will become a default by 2019. This will make this market ripe for Californians to use Tesla Powerwall for day/night arbitrage. Under timeofuse pricing, the gap between onpeak rate and offpeak rate will be substantial enough that Californians could fuel up their Powerwall during the night and drain it during the day to save money.

Californians will flock to get a Powerwall when timeofuse pricing becomes default

Even today, Powerwall is a good deal because its allin lifetime cost of 15 cents/ kWH beats the gap between offpeak rate and onpeak rate (20 cents/ kWH). However, with the opening of the Gigafactory, if the allin cost of a Powerwall were to drop in half of what it is today, purchasing it would become a nobrainer for Californians. Timeofuse electricity pricing is a rising trend across the world and Tesla is all set to sell a lot of Powerwalls in the coming years.


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The real play for Tesla will however come into place by 2020 when the 3 mega trends merge. If these dramatic price drop trends for solar and battery hold, it is likely that rooftop solar + Powerwall combinations could become highly competitive with the power grid electricity in terms of price. The fact that solar finds incredible public support globally would imply that early adopters for rooftop solar + Powerwall could begin to emerge by 2020. The fact that many of these early adopters might already have a Powerwall, which they were previously using for day/night arbitrage, would only make the transition more sealess.

By the year 2020, rooftop solar + Powerwall could match regular electricity from nonrenewable sources in pricing

Having said that, rooftop solar + Powerwall is not the same thing as "offthe grid". We are used to flicking the switch and having the lights turn on. Rooftop solar + Powerwall would not always be able to promise that, say during a rainy week, or at least not within reasonable cost constraints. However, it could be possible for residents in sunrich areas to derive as much as 90% of their annual electricity needs from solar + Powerwall. The power grid could always be there, but as a backup, in case rooftop solar + Powerwall cannot meet the needs. The transition from early adopters to early majority could also be incredibly rapid. As more and more people transition to rooftop solar +Powerwall, the prices of grid electricity would rise, pushing even more people to make the transition. Obviously, power companies could also take advantage of this phenomenon by moving towards large scale solar and industrial battery installations themselves, opening up a whole another market for Tesla.

An inexpensive Powerwall will be a force multiplier to a much cheaper solar energy

As solar energy becomes exponentially cheaper with each passing year, inexpensive batteries will add flexibility to the overall energy system. It is a massive disruption waiting to happen over the next 5 to 10 years, and Tesla is already in the box seat. Other competitors may emerge to challenge Tesla's ascendancy, but the company has a significant firstmover advantage in both scale and technology, not to mention that they have an incredible brand image. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/correlationprocessingassethealthassessmentrudyshankar?trk=hpfeedarticletitlelike

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The true beneficiaries of this disruption will obviously be the environment and the future generations. For each house that would move from grid electricity to rooftop solar, we would be able to prevent 25,000 lbs of greenhouse gas emissions, or equivalent of taking 3 cars off the road a year. Rooftop solar + Powerwall is a disruption whose time has come, and as the economics rapidly start working in its favor, it is poised to change the world for the better!

Would you consider rooftop solar + Powerwall for your house?

If you liked this post, please click the "Follow" or "+" button near the picture. You might also like these previous posts I have written Is This New App An Uber Killer? Will Amazon Drones Be As Common As Mail Trucks? 1 Quality Innovation Leaders Must Have To Succeed My author page

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