Sborník příspěvků z mezinárodní vědecké konference MMK 2012 MEZINÁRODNÍ MASARYKOVA KONFERENCE PRO DOKTORANDY A MLADÉ VĚDECKÉ PRACOVNÍKY ročník III. 10. – 14. prosince 2012 Hradec Králové, Česká republika
DEMAND AND SUPPLY CONDITIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF POLISH GASTRONOMY ENTERPRISES Edyta Gheribi Dr. Edyta Gheribi, Ph.D. Department of Business Management Faculty of Management University of Lodz 90-237 Łódź ul. Matejki 22/26 Tel: +48698467225 email:
[email protected] Abstract The article is about the demand and supply conditions for the development of Polish gastronomy enterprises. The aim of the study is to determine gastronomy business trends and their degree of impact in the Polish economy. The development of gastronomy enterprises is important because in today's world food and beverage companies play an important role in satisfying the changing nutritional needs of consumers,. The research method uses statistical analysis of the available data affecting the development of food and beverage companies. Keywords: management, catering, restaurants
1
INTRODUCTION
The last few years have seen a sea change overall in consumption, which primarily involves the increasing importance of services in general, including the catering services that are offered by the catering company. In today's world, catering companies play an important role in meeting the changing nutritional needs of consumers, which are carried out. The development of the food service market undoubtedly is related to the social and economic changes taking place in recent years in our country. It should be emphasized that changes in the conditions and lifestyles of different socio - economic groups are due to both high and low income. This phenomenon is related to both the rich and the poor, because the products offered from catering companies is diverse. 1.1 Conditions of business development of food and beverage Factors favoring the development of food and beverage companies are also associated with the development of urbanization, the expansion of cities and the growing number of people. Between the company and the environment there is constant interaction. This environment largely determines the success or failure of the enterprise. Changes in the company can create chances, but they can also mean danger for him.
Conditions of business development services, including catering, can be divided into demand and supply. Among these considerations is observed feedback. Demand fundamental determinants of development do not detract from the supply-side conditions, and vice versa. There is an active sphere of influence in supply and demand and consumer preferences. The scale and structure of the catering business are impacted primarily by consumers. Demand conditions catering business to develop in relation to the level of economic development in terms of the macro (national product, unemployment rate) and the micro level (the income situation, the structure of expenditure, the socio - demographic - cultural households). As noted by A. Maslowski in today's wide-open market economy it is important to factor in demand not only from households, but also the demand of travelers, including foreign tourists, who are increasingly eager to visit our country (10). At the beginning of the twenty-first century the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the market participants continues to develop, as evidenced by the macroeconomic indicators showing economic growth, unemployment and the demographic situation. Gross domestic product is the main category in the system of national accounts and illustrates the final result of the activity of all entities of the national economy. Table 1 shows the dynamics of growth of GDP: Table 1. Indices of main macroeconomic categories in the national economy (constant prices) Specification
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
previous year = 100
2011 2000=100 2005=100
Gross domestic product
103,6 106,2 106,8 105,1 101,6 103,9 104,3
152,5
131,2
Domestic demand
102,5 107,3 108,7 105,6
147,3
131,9
145,7
125,6
98,9
104,6 103,6
Final consumption 102,7 105,2 104,6 106,1 102,0 103,4 102,1 expenditure Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office
In the years 2005 - 2007 we see economic growth. Poland has been a member of the European Union since May 2004, which gives hope for further economic growth, increasing wealth and following the changes in the structure of expenditure. The crisis in the global economy in 2008-2009 was apparently the cause of the economic slowdown. Since 2009 we have observed a gradual increase of GDP. Illustrating a good indicator of demand conditions is the economic activity of the population. In the years 2000 - 2011 a growth in the number of economically active persons was observed. In the years 2000 - 2011 a growth in the number of employed persons was observed. In the year 2011 compared to 2000, the number of employed persons in thousands increased by 10,24% among men and woman 11,81 (Table 2). Table 2 Economic activity of the population aged 15 and more in Poland in the years 2000 – 2011 The dynamics of Specification 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 growth / decline in 2000/2011 (in%)
Annual averages Economically active persons in thous.
17300
16946
16938
17279
17853
3,19
Men
9397
9173
9283
9455
9771
3,97
Women
7903
7773
7655
7824
8082
2,26
Employed persons
14540
13617
14594
15868
16131
10,94
Men
8066
7432
8081
8722
8892
10,24
Women
6474
6185
6513
7147
7239
11,81
Unemployed persons
2760
3329
2344
1411
1723
-37,57
Men
1331
1741
1202
734
879
-33,95
Women
1429
1588
1142
678
843
-41,00
Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office However, the micro-economic factors should mainly include: income, household spending on food and nutritional goods, and other factors such as cultural and social activities (4). The increase in wages of the Polish society makes it more and more likely to spend money, and this affects the growth of private consumption (8). In the coming years a marked increase in demand for food services is predicted. Among the general conditions for the development of these services there is highlighted a number of factors:
economic growth (tab. 1); increase in women's professional activity (tab. 2); general increase in job involvement (tab. 2); a change in the demographic structure of the population: an increasing share of 1 - and 2-person households, and households of three or more are decreasing. Forecasts for the years 2010 - 2030 (Graph 1) provide for the continuation of these trends; large growth in consumer income individuals (Tab. 3); an increase in spending on food services (Table 4); changes in time management (2); leisure industry flourished (7); changes in consumer attitudes and motivation (7); the development of tourism (7); an increase in interest in the cuisine of other nations; Graph 1 Forecast of household structure of the years 2010-2030 in Poland
6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000
One-person households
Two-person households
Three-person households
Four-person households
Five and more person households Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
Table 3 Medium monthly per capita receipts in households by socio-economic groups 20002011 Evailable Households income Grand total Employees Farmers SelfPensioners employed and Retirees 2000
575,73
608,57
420,84
754,89
436,03
2003
680,50
729,87
474,31
860,20
720,00
2006
834,68
829,18
689,75
1102,63
872,86
2009
1488,80
1483,00
1463,58
1805,19
1478,77
2011
1612,71
1605,95
1735,19
1920,39
1593,57
263,88
412,31
254,39
365,47
Dynamics changes 2011/2000
of 280,11 in
Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office Table 4 Average monthly per capita expenditures on restaurants and hotels in households in 2000 - 2011 in Poland Dynamics of Specification 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 changes in 2011/2000 Restaurants and hotels
8,41
10,63
14,63
20,72
24,82
295,12
Of chich services
7,59
9,37
13,00
17,77
21,44
282,47
Of employees
11,17
14,26
16,92
19,93
24,34
217,90
Of farmers
1,62
2,39
3,59
5,68
4,75
293,20
Of the self-employed
15,64
19,26
26,0
35,44
33,78
215,98
Of retirees pensioners
5,07
6,28
8,97
12,05
12,06
237,86
catering
and
Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office Maslowski also says that the classic factors that stimulate a demand for catering services and increase their social importance are industrialization and urbanization, together with all the accompanying social changes, such as (10): a change in family structure - the number of children, increasing the number of people working outside the home; the change in time management;
a heavy workload and learning on the go; the distance from the place of residence. The development of the market and its direction will depend on three main factors: what average income the consumer will have at his disposal; lifestyle which will be developed in Poland; and the ethnocentrism and globalization of consumption. More and more attention is paid to the increase of income that consumers spend on services related to recreation, entertainment, travel and gastronomy (12), (9). This trend continues to this day. The changing lifestyle in the specifics of society, and the increase in income, results in a marked improvement in consumer sentiment (1). These and other factors indicate that companies in this sector in the coming years will develop dynamically (11). Today in Poland there are effects of the same factors affecting the increase in popularity of the services offered by the catering companies in other countries, such as in the U.S. and Western Europe where these changes occurred rapidly. Currently, the average Polish consumer use of restaurants is just a few times a year, while in Western Europe the frequency is much higher, for example, in France - 70 times a year (6), in America - almost every other day. Research conducted by TNS OBOB, shows that in 2011, Poles ate out on average 33 times a year, compared to 2010 (when they ate out 28 times a year). According to research from GfK Polonia Catering in 2011, used by about 50% of adult Poles, they were mostly young people and most of them visited one type of food service establishment (15). Statistical analysis showed that the average family in Poland spends around 5.3% of total expenditure on nutrition eaten outside the home. In the U.S., spending on nutrition in catering establishments reach 51.0% of spending on nutrition. The foodservice data shows that Poles seem to spend 3% of their revenue on restaurants and hotels, while the CSO data shows that in 2007 they spent 5.5% of their income in restaurants and hotels. Reasons not to use primarily financial barrier for 18% of the respondents who claimed that the meals in catering establishments are too expensive for them. 22% of respondents declared that they cook, and therefore do not benefit from catering services. Graph 2 Average monthly per capita expenditures on consumer catering in households by number of persons in 2006, 2009, 2011 (PLN) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2006 2009 2011
Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office
Using the services of catering to a large extent is related to income, but also to culture, and the habits of this type of diet. The increase in average spending on nutrition in institutions catering for all but the highest household expenditure is for households of single and double persons (Graph. 2). The dynamics of changes in these households during 2011/2006 was 168.19 for one-person households, and for two-person 171.88. Supply-side factors while analyzing the development of food and beverage companies observed changes in the structure of the potential of catering. There are changes in both generic and personal structure. The shift occurred between the potential of gastronomic proportions of open and closed, and change the aspect ratio between the public and private sectors (10). In the years 2000 - 2006 a gradual increase in the number of catering establishments was observed and in the following years there was a downward trend. During the period 2000 2011 it was dominated by businesses with bars and catering outlets. It should be noted that in recent years there has been a positive trend in the structure of generic and an increase in the number of companies operating as restaurants. In 2011, restaurants accounted for 22.2% of the total number of outlets, and there were about 53,41% more than in 2006. According to data from the Central Statistical Office, the highest growth rate during the period changes observed in the restaurant and in 2011 saw an increase in the number of companies with 77.2%. Tabela 5. Catering Specification
2000
%
2003
%
2006
%
2009
%
2011
%
Dynam ics of change s in 2011/2 000
Numbers of catering establishemnts
84 342
100
89 340
100
92 423
100
78 624
100
67 954
100
- 19,43
Public sector
3 320
3,93
2 950
3,3
2 310
2,49
1 616
2,05
1 299
1,91
- 60,87
Private sector
81 02 2
96,0 7
86 390
96,7
90 11 3
97,5 1
77 008
97,9 5
66 655
98,0 9
- 17,73
Restaurants
8 519
10,1 0
8 785
9,83
9 840
10,6 4
14 120
17,9 5
15 096
22,2 2
+77,20
Bars
36 436
43,2 0
38 815
43,4 4
41 073
44,4 4
31 828
40,4 8
25 732
37,8 7
- 29,37
Food stands
32 377
38,3 8
34 450
38,5 6
34 729
37,5 7
27 569
35,0 6
22 803
33,5 6
- 29,57
Canteens
7 010
8,32
7 290
8,15
6 781
7,35
5 107
6,49
4 323
6,36
- 38,33
Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office The analysis shows that in the period 2000 - 2011, the year 2006 marked an increase in the total number of catering establishments and in the following years there has been a downward
trend. In the year 2011 compared to 2000, the dynamics of changes in the private sector amounted to 17.73%, while the public sector decreased by 60.87% (Table 5). The overall consumer foodservice market in Poland is set to continue growing in line with the recovering Polish economy. One of the main factors driving this growth will be the expansion of both domestic and international chains in numerous foodservice categories, particularly fast food. Euromonitor International predict that in 2016 the number of catering businesses will increase, especially businesses providing meals to homes and there were about 46,51% more than in 2008 , pizzerias 17,96% more than in 2008 and fast food 13,02% more rhan in 2008 (5) (Table 6). Polish foodservice market still far from saturation. Even though there are many different types of establishments in the largest cities in Poland, smaller ones are keen to attract well-known brands and new concepts which are not yet present. The opening of new establishments in smaller cities became less risky and easier due to the appearance of shopping malls and such developments are positive for the foodservice industry. Table 6 Catering - history and forecasts Categories
Dynamics of changes in 2016/2008
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2016
100% 129,0 home delivery / takeaway
131,0
137,0
151,0
161,0
189,0
46,51
Coffee/bar
23 826,0
22 950,0
22 976,0
23 234,0
23 850,0
-3,37
Restaurants 8 352,0 with waiter service
7 807,0
7 665,0
7 781,0
8 114,0
8 718,0
4,38
Fast food
17 520,0
17 662,0
17 677,0
18 024,0
18 581,0
19 802,0
13,02
Street stalls 28 889,0 / kiosks
29 645,0
30 241,0
30 749,0
31 133,0
31 911,0
10,46
Pizzerias
2 988,0
3 024,0
3 070,0
3 254,0
3 572,0
17,96
24 681,0
3 028,0
Source: Euromonitor International (5) The restaurant industry is a significant improvement in the quality and variety of services, but the industry still is not available to many consumers. These changes are particularly evident in big cities. According to Maslowski, opinions and expert estimates indicate significant structural transformations taking place within the community. These transformations are reflected in the dynamic increase of the number of companies specialized in Polish regional cuisine, as well as other nations in the kitchen (10). Restaurants at the beginning of the twenty-first century are represented generally higher than in the 90 standards of quality in the property (interior, accessories), offered meals (breakfast, lunch, dinner, brunch), the services (home delivery, takeaway sales, organization of events). As Maslowski rightly notes, undoubted obstacle quantify the qualitative development of the restaurant is a barrier in demand associated with the slow increase in consumer real wages, rising operating costs - particularly personnel costs (wages, social insurance, social costs), the cost of renting and others (10). With the increasing number of companies are growing revenues from food and beverage catering services. Each year observed there was an increase in total revenue from the catering business, which slowed down in 2011. In 2011, revenues amounted to 21 567 million zł
(current prices) and were higher by 4,17% compared with the 2009 year. The dynamic of changes in 2011/2000 was 40.21%. The average annual rate of change in total revenue from catering services in current prices, in million zł in the years 2000 - 2011 was 8,02% (Table 7). Tabela 7 Revenues from catering activity (current proces) in mln PLN in 2000 – 2011 Specification 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 Dynamic The s of average changes annual in rate of 2011/200 change 0 in 2011/200 0 Revenues from 15 catering activity 381 In mln PLN
16 504
18 162
20 702
21 567 40,21
The pace change
7,30
6,65
13,98
4,17
of -
8,02
( %) Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office A positive development is the increasing share of revenues from own production catering to all income from the catering business. This positive trend has been maintained for several years. In 2011, revenues from own production catering were 14 zł 989 million and this was 3.2% higher than in the previous year. Revenues from sales of merchandise amounted to 1,839 million zł and was lower by 31.13% than in 2000. Are reduced revenues from other activities: in 2011 amounted to only 648 million zł and were higher by 1.64% than in 2000 (Graph 3). Graph 3. Sources of revenues from catering activity (current proces) in mln PLN 2000 – 2011 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
2000 2003 2006 2009
2011 From catering production
From sales of trade commodities
From sales of alcoholic beverages
Source: Based on data Central Statistical Office
From other activity
1.2 Conclucion In conclusion, we can say that in recent decades we have seen a dynamic development of catering companies. After extensive development of the potential Polish foodservice industry at the end of the twentieth and early twenty-first century, in the period of the 2008-2011 global economic crisis, there was a decrease in the total number of catering establishments in Poland, with a simultaneous increase in revenues from the catering business. The catering industry has proven to be quite sensitive to the effects of the economic slowdown. Increasing consumer confidence and rising disposable income helped to improve the overall performance of the foodservice market in Poland. Moreover, the increasingly rapid pace of modern lifestyles and operators’ flexibility resulted in consumers’ eating out more often. However, given the still rising spending on nutrition of Polish consumers outside the home, as well as the willingness of entrepreneurs to invest in the catering business, opening a new outlets catering network, the continued interest of international companies increasing interest in the Polish market and the development of optimistic forecasts for the coming years, not to mention the serious and long-term development of the industry interference. It is expected that in 2012, the Polish gastronomy rebound caused consumers to return to their pre-crisis habits. Undoubtedly, the key factor will be to accelerate an event jointly hosted by Poland and Ukraine – the UEFA European Football Championship EURO 2012, which will increase tourism (PMR Reaserch). Despite the fact that the use of catering services in Poland in comparison with developed countries is still low, certainly the demand for eating outside the home in the country will continue to grow under the influence of socio-economic, demographic and cultural change. References 1. BERBEKA J. Nowe tendencje w zachowaniach konsumentów, Marketing i Rynek, 1, 1999. 16-19 p. ISSN 1231-7853 2. BOMBOL M., DĄBROWSKA A. Czas wolny. Konsument. Rynek. Marketing. KE LIBER Warszawa 2003. ISBN 83-88170-53-8 3. Central Statistical Office 4. GHERIBI E. Styl życia i sposób spędzania czasu wolnego aktywnych zawodowo mieszkańców Warszawy. Turystyka i Hotelarstwo 18/2011. 213-220 p. ISSN 16448871 5. http://www.euromonitor.com/consumer-foodservice-in-poland/report 6. JAŚKIEWICZ S. Klientów więcej o 5% rocznie, Raport Nowości Gastronomiczne, 2006. 4 p. 7. KNOWLES T. Zarządzanie hotelarstwem i gastronomią. PWE Warszawa 2001. 26-27 p. ISBN 83-208-1353-0 8. KWIATKOWSKA E. Udział usług gastronomicznych w realizacji potrzeb żywieniowych konsumentów. Marketing i Rynek 7/2010, 28-33 p. ISSN 1231-7853 9. KWIATKOWSKA E., LEVYTSKA G. Nowe tendencje w zachowaniach polskich konsumentów na rynku usług gastronomicznych. Marketing i Rynek 8/2009. 23-26 p. ISSN 1231-7853 10. MASŁOWSKI A. Rynek usług gastronomicznych uwarunkowania i kierunki rozwoju, IRWiK, Warszawa, 2001. 9-34 p. ISBN 9788391420218 11. PARCZEWSKI J. Ożywienie już widoczne, Raport Nowości Gastronomiczne, 2006. 4 p. 12. PAYNE A. Marketing usług, PWE, Warszawa 2002. 15 p. ISBN 83-208-1050-7
13. PMR REASERCH Oznaki ożywienia na rynku branży gastronomicznej w Polsce. Rynek gastronomiczny w Polsce – Raport 2012. 6-8 p. 14. SALA J. Marketing w gastronomii. PWE, Warszawa 2004. ISBN 83-208-1500-2 15. ZIMNA M. W jakim kierunku podąża polska gastronomia – szanse i perspektywy, Konferencja Food Business Forum Hotel Marriott, Warszawa, 2008
