demand forecasting arima - Electrical and Computer Engineering

89 downloads 0 Views 437KB Size Report
electricity demand forecasting methodology and proposes a methodology in the classical ..... context of the Indian power sector analysis has been the fatality of a ...
! "

# $

% %

'

"

! # )

,

"# (

*

"

*

"+ * )

* # *

+ )# #

* +

+ ) % -

"+ #

# # "

(

! * *

#

*"

"

% # #

* .

*"

/ # 0#

" #

# #

*"

#

) 1%

&

34

5'

"64

#

# "

7+ # )

*

#

8

# ) ,

* ) *

*

%

* .

* *"

"

)#

#

#

,

# #

#

*"

)

% -

#

#

#

#

) 1% % #

%

#

#

+

*"

#

, "

*

"

%

*

" (!

#

"

* #

"+ # !

*

* # #

*

#

"

"

*

#

#

) )

) %

(

/ #

0#

*

* +

"

(

%

*

#

+

"

*

"

)#" #

*

/

( )

(" #

# # +

%

2

#

*

#

"

:

:

#

#

*

%

,

; * )# #

(

(

+

#

#

#

#

#

*

#

"(

#




)

) #

#

"

+ #

( :

%

% =

%

( *

"

"

*"

#

#

*

B

(

#

:

;

*

)

("

+ #

"

%

% #

B

*

#

"

#

(

"

%

,

*


(

#

* ** *

#

)# # #

1%

#

#

!

;

#

C9

+ " %&

#

;

(

H + ;

# )

+

"

)+




#

)

#

#

# +1

#

#

#"

# !

#

# + # 6 − % C9+

*

%

#

( %

)

+

,

+ #

A

* #

% (

( # *# " (

( *



=,=:(*>

) 19

%> )

#

'*,

+ .-34 % #

*

5

1

A

#

34.

=,)=*)>

.-34

)#

=,')('>

*# + ( +

C H+ #

#

(

CC

%&2 -I%

) #

# " "

&H% -I+ *

+

# # &

# )#

+

*

#

H& H2+ )# ) *

*

H H&

) # #

#

(

+*

$,=:=

=,*::

. 19

;=,=') $

=,'('> 34.

));,':;>

7

);

,$$>

=, ;(:>

.-34

)$(,;):>

#

5

=,=)

*

#

.-

+)

;/

=,$

,*) >

=,:($>

=,(:;> 34.



$*,*::>

χ$ )

(,:)> 2

.-34

# # θ

θ$

$ , ''>

θ

θ$

5

-

=, ((:,

$

(" #

#

*

*

B

θ$ θ < >

θ$ − θ < >

− < θ$ < ,

4

φ

"+ # *

φ$

# -

*

.$

$

.$

%

-

"+

.

+ #

*

*

(

# #

#

( :

*

)

< ;34


"< # (

(

$

=,= $',

-

;) #

%

− θ 0 − θ$ 0



*

$,

.-34

#

';,=)'>

5

=,= :$>

# +) # #

"

*

φ

=,;*)>

θ

4 +

θ$

4 +

. 19

$

*,)=:>

=,$

,* *>

=,:'=>



=,*='> 34.

=(,)$

χ$ ) 34. $

(

=(,(;>



(, =,==*(>

− =,==*;;> @

4 +

31

#

;,) >

7

=, ')

(#

!>

=, :(> - ?+ +

34

*

*,:=

= ,()>

- ?+ + 34

− =,*=; 0

$,=$ χ

)$,;:)>

=,$*(),

"

'=,: *

7

',=

#

.

= $

) *

4 +

19

.-

)

@

#

7

=,)==

;#

>

=, :(,

2

F

#

( # 34.

( % %

#

# )#

#

#

*

;

4 *

; H ;

2

)

-I
34.

$

7

($=,*

=,;=

.-34

$),:;=>

5

=,=$'(,

# +

(

+

* ) *


7

) )

# .-

"

*+ #

*

) *



θ

4 +

θ$

4 +

$

.

=,$)'>

$,=(*>

=,*:;>

;,)

=,;: 34.

$,=$':> χ

19

.-34

$

:,;: >

)

) # #

− =,,$$( 0 − =,*:$ 0 6



$

< =,==;:$>

( " #

;

) #

)#

(

:,( χ

.-34

#

#

$=,*='

.

.-

)

#

=,

=,)=*),

+ #

*

7

,=:>

" # +

#

:,*:$>

; %

#




=,;'

:,$''>

=,*'*> 34.

(,;;)>

7

)(,)*> 9

,'=)$> χ

19 .-34

$

< )'

*,

#

=,::>

5

=,,$$$(,

" # +

#

+ #

*

# *. ,

# −$=),=*(

#

) #

B

#

)#

+

( /%

+

-1

+

" − =,< * 0 − =,: 34.

;,;

$

: )'

(,=')> , :>

5

=,==

− =,=)':>

+

7 < =* ,

+

- ?+ +

@

#

- ?+ +

@

#

31

$,;;;> 7

=#

=,$;;

!>

=, ;=> 7

=,$ =

)#

> 34

=, ;=,

( # # 34.

#
'> 0 % A

/

#

# +

#

+

. #

/+

,

( 9

*

)%

"

:%+ + )

#

*"

1

4'E

"%

#

"

#

(

# (

*

# +

#

"+ # .*

#

%K

'#

< * #

+

#

#

+

#

# (

( ; *

"% > )

(

(

(

(

*

*

*

# .

!

C H

HH -A+ *

1 "

#

-A

C H+

#

+

,

*

* #

% #

)

1 &

+

&

#

(


.-34

;,;)'>

5

=,=)'',

#

* ) * "

*

#

#

% %

* + )# #

(

#

*

#

(

#

=

=,

# (

1

+

− =,;=:( 0 6

: ,=$:

=,''' 34.

> χ

": #

$$,(=

.

+ #

(

=,:;


=, ; 7

=,)

$#

> 34

=, ; )

# * )# " C H

(

#

6

7 ; '*,$($>

(,$(> =,==

=,==*($)>

- ?+ + !> 34

) 1

;=,: 34.

,')($> χ

(


'>

%

* )

(

#

* )

&%H&

%

#

)

( *

(" C% H

+

%+ #

#

!

+

+ #

+ +

#

#

%

+

% 2

* )

% % % H

; % H< × ;C% H