"Analysis of Residential Solid Waste at Generation Sites". ... Dyson, B., Chang, N.-B., âForecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban ...
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
M. Pons, C. Pérez, J.J. de Felipe, E. Jover
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
OUTLINE 1. INTRODUCTION -
Modelling MSW generation State of Art Study case context: Andorra
2. METHODOLOGY
3. RESULTS - Scenarios
4 CONCLUSIONS 4.
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1. Why? - Utility • Waste management planning • To achieve accurate and reliable waste information
-Municipal waste collection system -Land demand for landfilling waste - Incinerators capacity evaluation
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1.
Traditional statistical forecasting methods
• Time analysis correlation
• Regression analysis
1
High quantity and quality data required
1. H. A. Abu Qdais, M. F. Hamoda, J. Newham. "Analysis of Residential Solid Waste at Generation Sites". Waste Management & Research. Vol. 15. pp. 395-405, (1997).
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1. System Dynamics Modelling • Fuzzy, not-well defined environments Quality of Quality of service
• Limited Li it d d data t • Large-scale complex systems • Causal loops
Tourist Offer
Visitors
Infrastructures
Profits
Overnight
stays
Investments
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1. SD Modelling examples g p MSW generation in San Antonio 1
Waste generation, collection capacity and electricity in Dhaka 2
Based on economic and demographic information
1.Dyson, B., Chang, N.-B., “Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling.” Waste Management 25 (7), 669679, (2005). 2. Sufian, M.A., Bala B.K., “Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city.” Waste Management, 27(7), 858-868, (2007).
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
I d Independent d t Principality P i i lit Population: 84 84.484 484 inhabitants Area: 468 km2 Pyrenees Tourism main economic activityy 10.193.749 visitors in 2008
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
Case Study context - Andorra 1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
Tourists 2008 300.000
250.000
T TOURISTS
200 000 200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
Data source: Tourism Department of Andorran Government
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
Case Study context - Andorra 1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
MSW kg/person/day 1,40 1,35 1,30 1,25
kg
1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90
Data source: Environmental Department of Andorran Government
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS Balearic Islands: MSW Generation /person /day
Winter
1,5 kg
Summer
2,5 kg
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS TORREVIEJA URBAN WASTE 2001 1 TORREVIEJA URBAN WASTE 2001 8 7,5 7 6,5
10 6 kg
6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5
High g impact p of visitors flows on waste generation g
Lack of models integrating visitors influence
1. J.F. Vera Rebollo and J.A. Ivars Baidal, “Measuring Sustainability in a Mass Tourist Destination: Pressures, Perceptions and Policy Responses in Torrevieja, Spain.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11, 181-203, (2003).
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY
Model tackling with: - Data D t scarcity it - Importance of visitors flows
SD based on: - Economic - Demographic - Visitors flows
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION
POPULATION
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: GDP
RESIDENT POPULATION
ECONOMIC
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS
TOURISTS
RESIDENT POPULATION
VISITORS
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
ECONOMIC
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS
ONE-DAY VISITORS
TOURISTS
RESIDENT POPULATION
VISITORS
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
ECONOMIC
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION
POPULATION
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
3. RESULTS: SCENARIOS
AS USUAL SCENARIO HYPOTHESIS: HYPOTHESIS Annual variation rate of variables POPULATION
+1%
Dolars
GDP 2400,0 2350,0 2300,0 2250 0 2250,0 2200,0 2150,0 2100,0 2050,0 2000,0 1950 0 1950,0 1900,0
GDP -1,2% 1,2%
TOURISTS
- 1,7 %
ONE DAY VISITORS - 1,3 %
+1 5% +1,5%
+3% 3%
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
4. CONCLUSIONS
• SD Model M d l iintegrating t ti d demographic hi and d economic i parameters as well as tourist flows • Correlation between visitor flows and MSW generation • Compulsory when studying tourist destinations FURTHER WORK • To validate the model • To model the recovering energy capacity • To collaborate with local administrations
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
f their for th i collaboration ll b ti
f a fellowship for f ll hi
and
ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!