Early Voters and Late Deciders: Vote Choice by the Timing of the Vote

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Jul 24, 2017 - The 2016 presidential election provided many voters with the option of voting before Election Day. At the same time, the unique dynamics of ...
Early Voters and Late Deciders: Vote Choice by the Timing of the Vote and the Vote Decision Christopher J. Fleury, Ph.D., Randall K. Thomas, Frances M. Barlas, Ph.D., Annie Weber, & Linda McPetrie

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Introduction

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Introduction

Background & Purpose

The 2016 presidential election provided many voters with the option of voting before Election Day. At the same time, the unique dynamics of this election – including the historic unpopularity of the pairing of major party candidates – meant that many voters were polarized early on into one camp or another while others were reluctant to commit to either camp. The confluence of these developments provides an opportunity to explore the interplay between when voters…

Decided on a candidate

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Actually cast their ballot

3

Methods

Method

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Method

Research Design

The GfK Pre-Election Poll was based on a representative national sample using GfK’s KnowledgePanel® Started November 4, 2016 (1:30 am Eastern) Ended November 8, 2016 (11:45 am Eastern)

2,367 adults (18+) completed the survey

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

56.5% cooperation rate

This paper focuses on the 1,887 respondents who were identified as “likely voters”

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Method

GfK KnowledgePanel®

Address-based sampling for highest representation of the adult US population: • Non-internet • Cell-phone only • Spanish-language dominant

55,000 members and 2,200 profile variables enables large survey samples and targeting by demographics, attitudes, and behaviors

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Probability-based sampling produces unbiased point estimates that can be reported with confidence intervals 6

Method

Validity

The GfK Pre-Election Poll closely matched the national popular vote

Comparison of National Popular Vote and GfK Poll Results

Clinton 48% 46%

6%

Nationwide, our poll matched the Clinton total exactly; we understated the Trump vote by three points © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Actual Popular Vote

Trump 48%

Other 43%

9% GfK Pre-Election Poll 7

Results

Results

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Results

Timing of Vote Decision

Clinton supporters were somewhat more likely to make their candidate choice earlier than Trump supporters.

All Likely Voters

Clinton supporters Trump supporters

Other supporters Earlier

76%

Three-quarters of likely voters 82% settled on a presidential candidate before 76% October.

12% 12%

9% 9% 12% 12%

48% 29% 23% October

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

November 9

Results

Timing of Vote Decision Vote Choice by Decision Timing

Clinton had a sizable lead among early deciders

Clinton

51% 43% Trump clearly “won” Oct. & Nov., as defined by picking up new supporters

43% 35% 22%

Other

44% 37%

18%

6% Earlier

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Trump

October

November 10

Results

Timing of Vote Decision

Clinton’s overall vote total would have been 1 point higher overall (i.e. 49%-43%) if the election had been held only among voters who had decided by the end of October

GfK Poll Results by Decision Timing Clinton Trump Other

49%

48% 43%

43%

Thru October © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

9%

8%

Final 11

Results

Timing of Casting Ballot

Clinton supporters were more likely to be EAVs

53% of Trump’s total votes were received on Election Day

49% 51%

All Likely Voters

Clinton supporters

55% 45%

Trump supporters

47% 53%

Other supporters

59% 41%

EAV

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Divided nearly evenly between Early or Absentee Voters (EAVs) and Election Day Voters (EDVs)

EDV 12

Results

Timing of Casting Ballot The correlation between voters’ decision dates and voting times is surprisingly small (eta = .12) and not in the obvious direction

The earliest deciders were the most likely to vote at the latest opportunity (Election Day) © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Ballot Timing by Decision Timing Early or Absentee Voter

Election Day Voter

66% 59%

49% 51% 41% 34%

Earlier

October

November

When voter made vote choice decision 13

Results

Timing of Decision by Casting Ballot Ballot Timing by Decision Timing Early or Absentee Voter

Six categories emerge

Election Day Voter

66% 59%

49% 51% 41% 34%

1 The prevalence of early deciders means that the six categories differ greatly in size

2

3

4

(37%) (4%) 1 (39%) 2 3 (8%) 4 5 6

Earlier

October

5

6

(7%) (5%)

November

When voter made vote choice decision © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Results

Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing

Clinton had a clear lead among EAVs who decided before October

Percentage of Votes for Each Candidate within Each Timing Category 60% 50%

55%

42%

43%

43%

47%

40% 30%

49%

48%

38%

34%

37%

41% 30%

20%

Early Deciders who waited until Election Day to vote were evenly split

Clinton Trump

10% 0% Earlier / EAV

Earlier / EDV

October / October / November November EAV EDV /EAV / EDV

When Decided/When Cast Ballot

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Results

Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing Percentage of Votes for Each Candidate within Each Timing Category

60% 50%

55%

42%

43%

43%

47%

40% 30%

49%

48%

38%

34%

37%

41%

20%

30%

Clinton Trump

10% 0% Earlier / EAV

Earlier / EDV

October / October / November November EAV EDV /EAV / EDV

Trump had a clear lead among Late Deciders who voted on Election Day

Trump led among both groups of October deciders

When Decided/When Cast Ballot © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Results

Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing

Both candidates received a large majority of their total votes from early deciders, but there is a noticeable difference in when they cast their ballots

Percentage of Each Candidates’ Total Votes 50%

43%

44% Clinton Trump

40%

30%

33%

39%

20%

8%

10%

6%

0%

Earlier / EAV

4% 3%

7% 6%

5% 3%

Earlier / October / October / November November EDV EAV EDV /EAV / EDV When Decided/When Cast Ballot

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Results

Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing Percentage of Each Candidates’ Total Votes

Trump got more of his support from each group of Late Deciders than Clinton did

50%

43%

44% Clinton Trump

40%

30%

33%

39%

20%

8%

10%

6%

0%

Earlier / EAV

4% 3%

7% 6%

5% 3%

Earlier / October / October / November November EDV EAV EDV /EAV / EDV When Decided/When Cast Ballot

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Results

Decision Timing by EAV Rules

Vote Decision Timing by State EAV Rules

Limited EAV

Easy EAV

Earlier

82%

74%

October

10% 8%

The ability to vote early did not entice voters to make a decision earlier

13% 13%

November

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Voters in states with limited EAV were slightly more likely to have made their voting decision earlier than those living in states with easier access to EAV (eta = .08)

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Discussion

Discussion

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Discussion

Summary of findings: Timing of vote decision

• GfK pre-election polling data found that nearly three-quarters of likely voters indicated deciding on a presidential candidate earlier than October • Clinton had a sizable lead among early deciders • Trump got more support from Late Deciders than Clinton did, but the bulk of his support also came from Early Deciders © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Discussion

Summary of findings: Timing of casting ballot

• Clinton supporters were somewhat more likely to be EAVs, while Trump led among EDVs • 53% of Trump’s voters cast their votes on Election Day, compared to 45% of Clinton’s

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Discussion

Summary of findings: Interaction of timings

• Early Deciders indicated they would be more likely to vote on Election Day than Late Deciders • Voters in states with limited EAV were slightly more likely to make their voting decision earlier than those living in states with easier access to EAV

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Discussion

Limitations of research

• Data are from only one (unusual) presidential election; data from additional elections are necessary to develop broader understanding of how the issues discussed here

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Discussion

Key questions for future research and discussion

• How typical is the observed discrepancy in hypothetical election outcomes between EAVs and EDVs? • What implications does this have for campaign strategy – and for election polling?

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

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Thank you.

Christopher J. Fleury [email protected]

Randall K. Thomas [email protected]

© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders

Frances M. Barlas [email protected] 26