Early Voters and Late Deciders: Vote Choice by the Timing of the Vote and the Vote Decision Christopher J. Fleury, Ph.D., Randall K. Thomas, Frances M. Barlas, Ph.D., Annie Weber, & Linda McPetrie
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Introduction
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Introduction
Background & Purpose
The 2016 presidential election provided many voters with the option of voting before Election Day. At the same time, the unique dynamics of this election – including the historic unpopularity of the pairing of major party candidates – meant that many voters were polarized early on into one camp or another while others were reluctant to commit to either camp. The confluence of these developments provides an opportunity to explore the interplay between when voters…
Decided on a candidate
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Actually cast their ballot
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Methods
Method
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Method
Research Design
The GfK Pre-Election Poll was based on a representative national sample using GfK’s KnowledgePanel® Started November 4, 2016 (1:30 am Eastern) Ended November 8, 2016 (11:45 am Eastern)
2,367 adults (18+) completed the survey
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
56.5% cooperation rate
This paper focuses on the 1,887 respondents who were identified as “likely voters”
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Method
GfK KnowledgePanel®
Address-based sampling for highest representation of the adult US population: • Non-internet • Cell-phone only • Spanish-language dominant
55,000 members and 2,200 profile variables enables large survey samples and targeting by demographics, attitudes, and behaviors
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Probability-based sampling produces unbiased point estimates that can be reported with confidence intervals 6
Method
Validity
The GfK Pre-Election Poll closely matched the national popular vote
Comparison of National Popular Vote and GfK Poll Results
Clinton 48% 46%
6%
Nationwide, our poll matched the Clinton total exactly; we understated the Trump vote by three points © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Actual Popular Vote
Trump 48%
Other 43%
9% GfK Pre-Election Poll 7
Results
Results
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Results
Timing of Vote Decision
Clinton supporters were somewhat more likely to make their candidate choice earlier than Trump supporters.
All Likely Voters
Clinton supporters Trump supporters
Other supporters Earlier
76%
Three-quarters of likely voters 82% settled on a presidential candidate before 76% October.
12% 12%
9% 9% 12% 12%
48% 29% 23% October
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
November 9
Results
Timing of Vote Decision Vote Choice by Decision Timing
Clinton had a sizable lead among early deciders
Clinton
51% 43% Trump clearly “won” Oct. & Nov., as defined by picking up new supporters
43% 35% 22%
Other
44% 37%
18%
6% Earlier
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Trump
October
November 10
Results
Timing of Vote Decision
Clinton’s overall vote total would have been 1 point higher overall (i.e. 49%-43%) if the election had been held only among voters who had decided by the end of October
GfK Poll Results by Decision Timing Clinton Trump Other
49%
48% 43%
43%
Thru October © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
9%
8%
Final 11
Results
Timing of Casting Ballot
Clinton supporters were more likely to be EAVs
53% of Trump’s total votes were received on Election Day
49% 51%
All Likely Voters
Clinton supporters
55% 45%
Trump supporters
47% 53%
Other supporters
59% 41%
EAV
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Divided nearly evenly between Early or Absentee Voters (EAVs) and Election Day Voters (EDVs)
EDV 12
Results
Timing of Casting Ballot The correlation between voters’ decision dates and voting times is surprisingly small (eta = .12) and not in the obvious direction
The earliest deciders were the most likely to vote at the latest opportunity (Election Day) © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Ballot Timing by Decision Timing Early or Absentee Voter
Election Day Voter
66% 59%
49% 51% 41% 34%
Earlier
October
November
When voter made vote choice decision 13
Results
Timing of Decision by Casting Ballot Ballot Timing by Decision Timing Early or Absentee Voter
Six categories emerge
Election Day Voter
66% 59%
49% 51% 41% 34%
1 The prevalence of early deciders means that the six categories differ greatly in size
2
3
4
(37%) (4%) 1 (39%) 2 3 (8%) 4 5 6
Earlier
October
5
6
(7%) (5%)
November
When voter made vote choice decision © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Results
Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing
Clinton had a clear lead among EAVs who decided before October
Percentage of Votes for Each Candidate within Each Timing Category 60% 50%
55%
42%
43%
43%
47%
40% 30%
49%
48%
38%
34%
37%
41% 30%
20%
Early Deciders who waited until Election Day to vote were evenly split
Clinton Trump
10% 0% Earlier / EAV
Earlier / EDV
October / October / November November EAV EDV /EAV / EDV
When Decided/When Cast Ballot
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Results
Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing Percentage of Votes for Each Candidate within Each Timing Category
60% 50%
55%
42%
43%
43%
47%
40% 30%
49%
48%
38%
34%
37%
41%
20%
30%
Clinton Trump
10% 0% Earlier / EAV
Earlier / EDV
October / October / November November EAV EDV /EAV / EDV
Trump had a clear lead among Late Deciders who voted on Election Day
Trump led among both groups of October deciders
When Decided/When Cast Ballot © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Results
Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing
Both candidates received a large majority of their total votes from early deciders, but there is a noticeable difference in when they cast their ballots
Percentage of Each Candidates’ Total Votes 50%
43%
44% Clinton Trump
40%
30%
33%
39%
20%
8%
10%
6%
0%
Earlier / EAV
4% 3%
7% 6%
5% 3%
Earlier / October / October / November November EDV EAV EDV /EAV / EDV When Decided/When Cast Ballot
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Results
Overlay of Decision/Balloting Timing Percentage of Each Candidates’ Total Votes
Trump got more of his support from each group of Late Deciders than Clinton did
50%
43%
44% Clinton Trump
40%
30%
33%
39%
20%
8%
10%
6%
0%
Earlier / EAV
4% 3%
7% 6%
5% 3%
Earlier / October / October / November November EDV EAV EDV /EAV / EDV When Decided/When Cast Ballot
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Results
Decision Timing by EAV Rules
Vote Decision Timing by State EAV Rules
Limited EAV
Easy EAV
Earlier
82%
74%
October
10% 8%
The ability to vote early did not entice voters to make a decision earlier
13% 13%
November
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Voters in states with limited EAV were slightly more likely to have made their voting decision earlier than those living in states with easier access to EAV (eta = .08)
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Discussion
Discussion
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Discussion
Summary of findings: Timing of vote decision
• GfK pre-election polling data found that nearly three-quarters of likely voters indicated deciding on a presidential candidate earlier than October • Clinton had a sizable lead among early deciders • Trump got more support from Late Deciders than Clinton did, but the bulk of his support also came from Early Deciders © GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Discussion
Summary of findings: Timing of casting ballot
• Clinton supporters were somewhat more likely to be EAVs, while Trump led among EDVs • 53% of Trump’s voters cast their votes on Election Day, compared to 45% of Clinton’s
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Discussion
Summary of findings: Interaction of timings
• Early Deciders indicated they would be more likely to vote on Election Day than Late Deciders • Voters in states with limited EAV were slightly more likely to make their voting decision earlier than those living in states with easier access to EAV
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Discussion
Limitations of research
• Data are from only one (unusual) presidential election; data from additional elections are necessary to develop broader understanding of how the issues discussed here
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Discussion
Key questions for future research and discussion
• How typical is the observed discrepancy in hypothetical election outcomes between EAVs and EDVs? • What implications does this have for campaign strategy – and for election polling?
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
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Thank you.
Christopher J. Fleury
[email protected]
Randall K. Thomas
[email protected]
© GfK 2017 | AAPOR Annual Conference 2017, New Orleans | Early Voters and Late Deciders
Frances M. Barlas
[email protected] 26