Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of development of Energy from Sustainable Resources - Case Study
Samer Zawaydeh, Msc, PMP, CRM, REP Independent Engineer
1.0 ABSTRACT Sustainable energy is available in different forms at countries throughout the world. Development of the available renewable energies from solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and tidal will improve the energy security at oil importing countries. It will also create jobs, and a continuous supply chain of supporting industries to design, finance, procure, manufacture, manage, construct, commission, educate, and maintenance of these new clean technologies. This paper will cover the status of development of sustainable energy from renewable energy sources in MENA region and will concentrate on the successful case study in Jordan. The development of the regulatory system started after the oil crisis in 2008 with the issuing of the renewable energy and energy efficiency law in 2012. The economic, environmental and social impacts from using renewable energy will be presented. And the learning lessons from adopting different strategies to achieve the targets of renewable energy in the energy mix will be discussed. These learning lessons can be implemented locally at similar oil importing countries to improve energy resilience, energy security, and contribute to global climate change adaptation efforts. 2.0 INTRODUCTION Renewable energies do no consume a resource and they are available free in nature. Countries have
directed their interest towards the development of these resources since the 1970s. One of the major renewable energies is solar energy. This is the largest available resource of energy on earth. Solar PV was developed by Bell Labs in 1954, and since then the efficiencies continued to improve and the number of consumers around the world kept increasing. The latest energy crisis in 2008 which increased the oil prices up to 147$/barrel, pushed the boundaries of oil consuming countries and the economic impact on their national economies was high and at the same time the oil exporting countries gained huge amount of monetary reserves. The most rapidly developing renewable energy at this time is Solar PV. The Global Status Report 2015 shows a global increase in the annual installed PV capacity over 50% annually since 2010 as shown in the figure below.
FIGURE 1: Global Install PV progress [1]
The largest installed renewable energy in the world according the same resource is the Hydro power as shown in the figure below:
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Energy Facts and Figures report 2014 [2] indicates that Jordan imports 97% of its energy requirements and 3% is local production. The primary energy needs are around 8,157,000 ton oil equivalent (toe). 82% of the primary energy is Crude Oil and products, 3% is coal, 1% is Coke, 2% is Renewable Energy, 11% is Natural Gas and 1% is imported electricity. These energy resources are consumed by the different sectors like transportation (51%), industrial (17%), household (21%) and others (11%) as shown in the figure below. Jordan's Final Energy Consumption by Sector Services & Others 11% Household 21%
Transport 51%
FIGURE 2: Global Install Hydro power [1]
Wind energy is a classical type of technology that was commercially developed in the 1970s. Since then, the size of the turbines kept increasing by increasing the height of the turbine to catch high speeds of wind and increasing the rotor diameter to catch more wind. The development of the Wind Energy worldwide is shown in the figure below:
Industrial 17%
FIGURE 4: Jordan's Final Energy Consumption by Sector [2]
About 50% of the primary oil is used for the electricity generation. The electricity generated is used by different sectors; household (43%), Industrial (24%), Commercial (17%), water pumping (14%) and street lighting (2%) as shown in the figure below. The electricity generated in Jordan is providing the Jordanian population with an electricity intensity of 959KWh/person/year and an average electricity intensity for the families of 5180KWh/family/year, based on an average family size of 5.4 persons.
FIGURE 3: Global Install Wind power progress [1]
The renewable energy installed worldwide is increasing at the rate of 100GW per year approximately. The renewable energy development in MENA started in the 1990s and within 10 years, Egypt was successful in installing over 545MW of Wind power. Currently, Morocco, Tunis, Jordan, UAE and Lebanon are leading the installation of renewable energy. This paper will concentrate on the development of sustainable energy which is natural, socially acceptable and economical in Jordan. 2.1 Energy Status in Jordan
FIGURE 5: Jordan's Final Electricity Consumption by Sector [2]
Since 2013, the renewable energy resources were allowed to be utilized after issuing of the renewable energy law and all the electricity from the utility scale projects is sent to NEPCO. Subsequently, this fluctuating resource is providing part of the needed electricity. At the same time, the consumers are allowed to install renewable energy resources to cover all their annual energy consumption by using on-grid PV and wind systems. The solid arrows in the figure below shows the flow of energy from the source to the demand center and the dotted line shows the new energy flow generated from renewable energy sources.
The national strategy [2] is to reduce the imported crude oil and products from 82% to around 52-55% by 2020, keep the use of coal at around 3-5%, increase the renewable energy share in the energy mix to 10%, Natural Gas percent to increase to 20% reduce the imported electricity and start using the Oil Shale reserves up to 10%. 2.3 Cost of Energy Relative to the National Economy The cost of primary energy is prepared from the annual reports of the National Electrical Power Company (NEPCO) and is shown in the figure below: Cost of Consumed Primary Energy (Million JD) 4640
4480 4074
4019 2603 1916
FIGURE 6: Jordan’s flow of energy, prepare by author 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FIGURE 8: JORDAN’s COST of PRIMARY ENERGY
The cost of energy relative to the GDP is reported in the NEPCO annual report [4]. It was 17.1% in 2013, and it reached as high as 21.1% in 2012 as shown in the figure below. Cost of Energy vs GDP 25
Percentage (%)
The energy prices were subsidies in the past, but the majority of the subsidies were removed on the fuels after the economical prices in 2008. Currently the fuel prices are following the international market prices for crude Brent oil and the national prices are modified accordingly on monthly basis. The figure below shows the crude Brent oil during the past 10 years. The difference between the highest reading (140$/barrel) and the lowest reading (45$/barrel) is around 250%. Commercial, industrial, hospitality, and other types of consumers can’t change their commodity prices with the same frequency. This leads to huge economic losses when the oil prices are high.
20 15 10 5 0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
FIGURE 9: Jordan’s Cost Of Energy vs GDP
The cost of KWh sold in 2013 was 0.145 JD (0.205 USD/KWh and in 2015 it reached 0.156 JD (0.22 USD/KWh
FIGURE 7: Crude Brent Oil 10 year prices [3]
2.2 Jordan’s 2020 Primary Energy Sources Targets
2.4 Electrical Energy Consumption The household sector in Jordan consumes 43% of the generated electricity, 24% is consumed by the industrial sector, 17% by the commercial section, 14% by the water pumping, and 2% for street lighting. The GWH per sector consumption of electricity can be
taken from the electricity company annual report [4] and it is shown in the figure below
FIGURE 10: JORDAN CONSUMPTION PER SECTOR
ELECTRICITY
2.5 Electricity Network Losses The efficiency of the generating stations in Jordan is improving. Currently the overall efficiency is around 41%, which means that the remaining 59% is lost in the form of heat. The national electricity grid has around 17% losses. The technical losses are 2.3% in transmission and 6% in distribution, and the remaining losses are unauthorized use that occurs throughout the network.
FIGURE 12: JORDAN’s 2020 RENEWABLE ENERY TARGETS
3.0 STAKEHOLDERS The energy sector has direct contributions to all the economic sectors in the country. It is very important to have a positive interaction between the different stakeholders in the country in order to achieve their requirements and expectations. The major stakeholders in the public and private sectors are discussed below.
FIGURE 13: INTEGRATION FIGURE 11: JORDAN ELECTRICITY NETWORK LOSSES
2.6 Jordan’s 2020 Renewable Energy Targets The National Plan that was developed in 2007 called for 7% of primary energy mix is RE by 2015 and 10% by 2020. The recent RE targets reported by the MEMR are 1000MW of Wind and 600MW of Solar and 50MW by Biomass by 2020.
JORDAN
STAKEHOLDER
3.1 Public The energy sector policies are set up by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. The energy sector is regulated by the Energy and Minerals Regulatory Commission (EMRC) and the Electricity is generated by the different generation stations, then it is transmitted by the National Electrical Power Company (NEPCO), and finally it is distributed by the Electricity Distribution Companies. The Jordan National Building Council (JNBC) under the Ministry of Public Works and Housing issues the national technical codes and guides which govern the building sector design and construction. The media is a key channel for communication of the different updates between the stakeholders of all types. Some universities are also one of the key stakeholders that
are developing the capacity of the students in the energy sector. 3.2 Private The private sector is the leader of the economy and they need to develop the right tools to develop the EE and RE sectors. Private universities started their own energy programs and at least ten training centers are offering RE and EE courses. Suppliers are bringing new material onboard to take advantage of the 0% customs and 0% Sales tax on EE and RE systems. This is one of the major industry drivers. Developers started the planning for RE projects after the issuing of the Expression of Interest (EOI#1) in July 2011 where 68 companies submitted their interest in studying and executing wind and solar projects and twelve companies signed the Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) with NEPCO on March 31, 2014. The national and international media is reporting on renewable energy solar and wind projects in Jordan on daily basis since the last three years. And national and international exhibitions and conferences are taking place every month. This facilitates networking and communication between the stakeholders and increases the likelihood of moving towards a clean economy. The financial institutions are offering loans green loans for RE and EE projects up to 100% of the project value. 4.0 REGULATORY SECTOR The regulatory system is the basis for the development of the EE and RE sector. The REEEL (13) year 2012 was developed in 2008/2009 and was issued in its temporary form in year 2010. It was approved and issued in its final form in 2012. Further revision took place after two years and REEEL (33) years 2014 was issued last year. Two bylaws; bylaw (10) for custom and tax exemption which was also revised this year and became bylaw (13) year 2015, and bylaw (73) for energy efficiency were issued to regulate the sector. The overall major laws and regulations are shown in the table below
FIGURE 14: ENERGY SECTOR REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT [5]
In 2015, Bylaw (49) for the Jordan Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Fund was issued and Bylaw (50) for direct proposal was issued as well. These two bylaws ill help regulate the development of the RE sector. The wheeling regulations were later issued to regulate the generation of RE at a location far away from the point of consumption. The RE Guide was issued by the Energy and Minerals Regulatory Commission (EMRC) at the same time that the REEEL was issued. This assisted the consumers in completing the process of requesting the installation of a RE system, review, making changes, installation and commissioning. The Jordan National Building Council (JNBC) that is operating under the Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MoPWH) also issued the Solar Code in 2012 which outlines the mandatory requirements for the installation of Solar Water Heaters and Solar PV. The Jordan Green Building Guide also has an energy section and a renewable energy points that increase with the increased installation of renewable energy percentage. The Jordan Standards and Metrology Organization (JSMO) work on all different equipment. The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) was approved by the cabinet on June 2013 and it calls for several projects to be implemented in order to achieve the EE targets and specifically calls for the installation of RE as well. Construction work in general is governed by the National Building Law (7) for year 1993. The clauses in the law calls for a fine between 100-3000JOD (1JOD=$1.4USD) for each violation of the requirements of the National Building Codes issued by JNBC. The Electricity Companies are facing continuous losses because of the rising fuel prices. The reported losses are around one billion JD (1.4 Billion USD) in 2013 and 1.18 Billion JD (1.65 Billion USD) in 2014.
A national strategy plan was set forward to increase the electricity prices between 2014 to2017 and implement an array of other measures in order to raise money from large end consumers in different sectors and implement energy efficiency measures to cover the losses. This plan calls specifically for the installation of RE projects as well. 5.0 COST OF ELECTRICITY The cost of electricity started increasing in 2008 following the removal of subsidies on the fuel prices. Each sector has its own electricity tariffs and few of them will be discussed in details. 5.1 Residential Sector The residential sector has a stepped up tariff that has been increasing since 2008 for the consumers with monthly consumption above 500KWh/month. There are seven categories for the residential sector. The first four are subsidies and the tariff is fixed for the small consumers. In order to regulate the market and reduce the losses of the electricity company, the tariff has been fixed for the period 2014-2017 for each category and is shown in the table below. TABLE 1: RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY TARIFF YEAR – Unit Price (USD/KWh)
5.2 Industrial Sector The industrial sector has five different categories; small under 10000 KWh/month, Small Over 10000KWh/month, medium, Large Mining and Large other. Each of these sectors will undergo different tariff increase during the next four year. The figure below shows the current cost of electricity and the stepped up expected increase. The rate of increase of cost of electricity for large consumers is much higher than the rate of increase for the small consumers. The day rate for large industrial sector is 0.27 JD/KWh (0.38USD/KWh) in 2015 and is plan to increase to 0.32 JD/KWh (0.45 USD/KWh) in 2017.
2017
2016
2015
2014
QTY (Kwh/ month)
46,2
46,2
46,2
46,2
160
1 - 160
100,8
100,8
100,8
100,8
140
161 - 300
120,4
120,4
120,4
120,4
200
301 - 500
350
159,6
159,6
159,6
159,6
100
501 - 600
300
263,2
245
228,2
212,8
150
601 - 750
292,6
271,6
253,4
414,4
399
379,4
362,6
250
751 - 1000 above 1000
The development of the electricity prices in the residential sector since 1995 is shown in the figure below. The prices until 2008 were considerably low. After the global energy crisis in 2008, the number of categories started increasing and the unit rates for the high consumers started increasing [6]. Currently, the consumers below 600KWh/month will not see any increase in the electricity tariffs until end 2017. Whereas, the residential consumers of electricity consuming more than 600 KWh/month will see an annual increase between 5-15% annual increase in tariffs until end 2017 as shown in the figure below.
Electricity Tariff 2013-2017 All Industrial Consumers - Day Rates
Cost of KWh (JD)
313,6
Tariff Category (Kwh/month)
FIGURE 15: HISTORICAL AND PLANNED ELECTRICITY TARIFF FOR THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR (1995-2017)
Large Mining Large Others
250 Medium
200 150
Small > 10000 KWh/mon
100 50 0 2013
2014
2015
2016
Year
2017
Small: 110000KWh /mon
FIGURE 16: PLANNED ELECTRICITY TARIFF FOR THE FIVE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CATEGORIES
Adopting renewable energy projects is good investment strategy for large consumers because they will reduce their Levelized cost of energy, avoid the impact of fluctuation of prices due to international prices fluctuation and maintain their competitive edge. 6.0 RENEWABLE ENERGY PV
RE resources depends on the geographical location of the country and the local meteorological conditions. In order to explore the economic feasibility of the RE resource, measurement must be taken for at least twelve months at the locations where a utility scale project is planned for investment. Several engineering firms require that measurements are taken for three years before data is used in the design of utility scale projects. 6.1 Solar Resource Measurements The German Aerospace Agency (DLR) supported the development of the solar sector in Jordan by installing a Solar Scientific Data Measurement Station at Ma’an Development Area. Solar data measured at the Industrial Park in Ma’an for 3 years show an average DNI of around 2700 KWH/sq.mt annually. This is one of the highest readings in the world. FIGURE 18: SOLAR MAP IN JORDAN- GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIATION
6.3 Current Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Installations As of Feb 2015, there are approximately 747 PV decentralized systems installed with a total capacity of 23.6MW. It is expected that the installations by consumers to cover their annual energy yield completely or partially will reach over 60MW by the end of 2015. The utility scale projects which have Power Purchase Agreements with the Government are under development and it is expected that 200MW will be constructed within the next 18 months. The construction of the first project started in May 2015.
FIGURE 17: DLR SOLAR SCIENTIFIC STATION AT MA’AN
6.2 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Jordan has over three hundred days of sun, and the Solar Map of Jordan indicates that the further you go south the better the solar resource. The figure below shows the Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) for Jordan. This reading is used in the design of the solar PV power plant to calculate the annual energy yield.
6.4 Jordan’s Current Renewable Energy Projects The list below shows the current RE Solar projects at different stages of development. This is over 70% of the 2020 Solar RE announced targets. TABLE 2: JORDAN’s RE SOLAR PROJECTS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Solar Kawar Consortium Catalyst Private Equity EJRE Projects SunEdison Hellas SA Evolution Solar Shamsuna Power Company Clean Energy Concepts Ennera Bright Power Group Martifer Solar, S.A Scatec Solar Greenland Alternative Energy Philadelphia Solar
52.5 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
14 15 16 17 18
Spanish Grant Queira Expression of Interest #2 Installed Decentralized In progress Total Solar
3 65 200 23.6 40 468
6.5 Major Investors - Expression of Interest II Another key driver of the Solar Energy Sector in Jordan is the Expression of Interest submitted by the large companies to develop utility scale projects. The EOI#2 is currently ongoing for the qualifications of 4 companies to develop 50MW Solar Plants each. On Feb 10, 2015, thirty four companies listed below submitted their EOI to develop solar plants. 1. Suncore (China) 2. Activ Solar (Austria) 3. Aqaba National Real Estate Projects Company (Kuwait) 4. Terra Sola (Bahrain) 5. Hanergy Global Solar Power Group (China) 6. Alten Renewable Energy Developments (Netherlands) 7. Philadelphia Solar (Jordan) 8. ELF for Generating Renewable Energy (Jordan) 9. Enfinity Middle East (Belgium) 10. Kawar Investments (Jordan) 11. Seci Energia (Italy) 12. Mainstream Renewable Power (Ireland) 13. Elecnor (Spain) 14. Building Energy (Italy) 15. JoSolars (Jordan) 16. Fotowatio Renewable Ventures (Spain) 17. Linuo Group (China) 18. Hareon Swiss Holding (Switzerland) 19. SunEdison (US) 20. G.I. Karnomourakis (Greece) 21. Saudi Oger (Saudi Arabia) 22. Neoen (France) 23. Canadian Solar (Canada) 24. Abengoa (Spain) 25. Evolution Solar (US) 26. Spectrum International for Investment (Jordan) 27. ACWA Power (Saudi Arabia) 28. Sources International Trading Company (Jordan) 29. Bright Investments Group (US) 30. The Jordanian Company for Canadian Renewable Energy (Canada) 31. Clean Energy Concepts (Jordan) 32. Solairedirect (France) 33. SkyPower Services (US) 34. Scatec Solar (Norway) The financial results of the EOI#2 were announced by MEMR in May 2015 as shown in the figure below.
The average of the lowest four prices was 0.0482 JD/KWh (0.068 USD/KWh). Therefore the second wave of utility scale renewable energy solar PV projects will sell around 400GWH per year at the average price of 0.068USD/KWh for the next 20 years. TABLE
3:
RESULTS OF EXPRESSION INTEREST (EOI#2) ON MAY 2015
OF
Partnership/bidder
Bid in JOD Bid in cents/kWh US$/kWh GI Karnomourakis SunRise 4.3441 0.0613 PV Systems Saudi Oger 4.59784 0.0649 Fotowatio/ALJ
4.8949
0.0691
Hareon Swiss Holding
5.43
0.0767
Evolution Solar/AMP
5.59
0.0789
Philadelphia Solar
5.60
0.0791
SolaireDirect
5.68
0.0802
Neoen
5.738
0.081
Linuo Group
5.86
0.0827
Activ Solar
6.00
0.0847
Mainstream
6.1493
0.0868
Kawar-First Solar
6.23
0.088
Alten Renewable Energy 6.275 Developments Al Sanad for Renewable 6.299 Energy (JoSolars) SkyPower-FAS 6.361
0.0886
SunEdison
6.4
0.0904
Elecnor
6.413
0.0905
ACWA
6.5831
0.0929
0.0889 0.0898
SECI
6.6
0.0932
ELF-ENEL
6.6
0.0932
Scatec
6.698
0.0946
Hanergy
7.00
0.0988
Spectrum International Investment Suncore PV Technology
for 7.3
0.1031
9.4
0.1327
7.0 PV ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT 7.1 Direct Foreign Investment (FDI) One of the major economic goals for developing countries is the increase of the FDI. The RE sector in Jordan, like the RE sectors at other countries in the world, has attracted the major companies in the field. Over 100 different international companies are competing on RE projects since 2012.
7.2 Banking Renewable Energy projects require large capital investments at the initial stage. The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) started the EE and RE low interest loan up to 10 Million JD (14 Million USD) for clean tech loans. The International Banks, World Bank and the major banks at developed countries are eager to provide long term loans at low interest rates because they consider this type of investment as secure investment because of the proven technology. The local banks are now offering low constant interest rate for renewable energy project for 10 years period. 7.3 Manufacturing Renewable Energy manufacturing opportunities exist for people with experience in manufacturing. The first module assembly plant in the Middle East was opened in Jordan in 2008. Philadelphia Solar started their production in 2008 well before the issuing of the REEEL. The Jordanian modules were exported to Europe and North Africa. In addition, Philadelphia Solar expanded their line of production to include the supporting structure starting 2015. Now they have a full automated mounting structure manufacturing fabrication line, especial to cover the upcoming demand for utility scale PV projects. A picture of the PV manufacturing process at Philadelphia Solar Plant is Jordan is shown in the figure below:
FIGURE 19: MANUFACTURING OF PV MODULES IN JORDAN SINCE 2008
Electric Cables manufacturers also developed their production lines to produce PV cables and DC cables as well. This started in 2014, and it is expected that the local manufacturing plants will acquire the international 3rd party certifications for highest quality as well. 7.4 Commercial The development of the commercial sector was gradual. It was directly linked to the issuing of the REEEL in 2012. In December 2012 there were 40
companies operating in the PV sector, and now over 500 renewable energy PV companies are operating in Jordan. They are employing directly and indirectly over 10,000 people in the sector. 7.5 University Education The RE sector needs qualified working force to lead and manage the sector. Therefore, several major universities incorporated the required undergraduate and graduate RE university degrees. Some of these universities are: 1. University of Jordan 2. Jordan University of Science and Technology 3. German Jordanian University 4. Hashemite University 5. Hussein Bin Talal University 6. Zaytouneh University 7. Middle East University The universities are cooperating with international universities in Europe and USA to develop their training capabilities and their curriculum. The education system will continuously be able to provide qualified trained workforce for the clean tech sector in Jordan. 7.6 RE Development Zones The RE utility scale projects will be developed in areas where good RE resources is available. The Ma’an Development Area (MDA) was developed specifically for the purpose to accommodate the developers in Expression of Interest I. The figure below shows the large open flat space at Ma’an area and the start of the MDA.
FIGURE 20: Ma’an Development Area
MDA will now be the area to develop 190MW of solar PV between 2015 and 2017. MDA also is working on another area (5,000,000m2) to develop Phase III of the RE projects. The figure below shows the two areas near the city of Ma’an
FIGURE 21: Ma’an Development Area Zones for EOI#1 and EOI#3
7.7 Development of the National Grid National Grids are not designed to accommodate renewable energy. The natural flow of electricity in the past 60 years was in one direction; from the generation station to the demand center. Now the national grid has to carry electricity in two directions, since the consumer is now an energy generating entity as well. The RE decentralized projects (commercial and residential) has a basic requirement to study the electricity grid in the neighborhood of the project before the project is executed. In many cases, this requires the development of the national grid in order to accommodate the new RE projects. The current capacities of the national grid is shown in the figure below:
FIGURE 22: JORDAN’s ELECTRICIY GRID FREE CAPACITY [8]
7.8 Development of the Green Corridor The REEEL (13) year 2012 set an upper limit to the development of the RE sector of 500MW. The limit can be increased depending on the technical capabilities of the national grid in the future. This is a critical subject that was addressed by the international consulting companies from USA and Japan. The Green Corridor concept was developed to reinforce Jordan's high voltage electricity backbone network for integration of more renewable generation capacity and to improve reliability of supply. It consists of two new transmission lines (400 kV/150 km and 132 kV/51 km), upgrading three existing lines (132 kV/100 km) and construction of one new 400/132 kV, 1200 MVA electricity substation. It is planned for bidding in 2015 and construction by 2017 as shown in the figure below. A third stage is also under consideration at the south of the country between Qatraneh and Aqaba for operation after 2020 once the large projects in Aqaba are operational and the demand increases.
8.2 Energy Security The renewable energy sources are available within the country, can be controlled by the owners. Fossil fuel energy sources that are not available locally are less attractive than RE systems that provide locally available energy. 8.3 Reduction in Imported Energy and Foreign Currency spend on fuel The availability of energy from RE systems for 20 years will reduce the energy imports, and reduce the amount of money spend on buying fossil fuel that is used for one time only. FIGURE 23: JORDAN’s GREEN CORRIDOR PROJECT [8]
7.8 Jordan Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Fund (JREEEF) This fund is managed by the MEMR. And recently bylaw (49) under the REEEL (13) year 2012, was issued to regulate the development and implementation of funds to support the EE and RE projects. Most of the project that is implemented by the fund is based on a revolving loan basis. The first project [7] was the purchase of around 5000 solar water heaters and distributing them to 70 community based organizations. These CBOs will distribute the SWH to families that will pay back the cost from their savings in the electricity bill. Once the SWH system is paid by the consumer and the money is back at the CBO, then another consumer will benefit from a new SWH. 7.9 Direct Proposals in RE Bylaw (50) under the REEEL (13) year 2012 was issued in 2015 to regulate the investment in RE projects. This is a development that will support the RE sector and enhance the 8.0 PV ECONOMICAL ADVANTAGES 8.1 Attractive Financial Indicators The return on investment, payback period, costbenefit ratio depends on the cost of KWh for the consumer or the investor. Large consumers will have high electricity tariffs and the payback period will be 30-36 months. Consumers with low electricity tariffs will have much higher payback period on their PV system. Investors in the first expression of interest had a fixed feed in tariff of 0.12JD/KWh (0.17USD/KWh) for twenty years. This is very attractive price compared to the current reported prices (0.068$/KWh)
8.4 Long Expected Project Life The RE systems operate for 20 – 30 years. This is a system that will provide energy according to predictable design for a long time. Most of the PV module manufacturers have degradation charts as shown in the figure below. This predicted performance will be integrated into the Grid requirements. Integration of this kind of energy system will be advantageous.
FIGURE 24: PV MODULE DEGRADATION CHART
8.5 Low Operation and Maintenance The only major requirement for the system is regular cleaning every 2-3 weeks depending on the environmental conditions and the season. Therefore, the number of O&M team will be small but this will initiate the start of a new micro businesses.
FIGURE 25: PV MODULE CLEANING EQUIPMENT
8.6 Reduction in Fuel Losses in Generation The current overall efficiency of all generating stations in Jordan is 41%. This means that 59% of the imported fuel purchased is lost in the form of heat to the atmosphere. The RE system will completely eliminate this wasted fuel. This will save money throughout the expected life of the project. 8.7 Reduction in Losses in Transmission and Distribution System The aggregated loss in national electricity grid transmission and distribution networks is 17% approximately. The advantages of onsite RE generation would be to eliminate all these losses. The RE system will completely eliminate this wasted fuel. This will save money throughout the expected life of the project. 8.8 Job Opportunities The job opportunities are available at all the supply chain for the PV sector; sales, estimation, education, design, training, manufacturing, procurement, construction, commissioning, quality control and maintenance. 8.9 No Custom Taxes or Sales Taxes The RE systems are exempt from these taxes according to bylaw (10) year 2012 and bylaw (13) year 2015. This provides a competitive advantage to suppliers to work in this field and for owners to purchase these RE systems. 8.10 Low Interest Rates The Central Bank of Jordan, through the local commercial banks, is providing low interest loans for RE and EE projects. This will make the investment in these types of projects more attractive. In addition, the international banks are also supporting these projects at lower interest rates than other types of investments. 8.11 Special Financial Programs The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has couple of programs for the support of RE and EE sector. The MEMR recently announce the support of installing PV systems for 6000 mosques. The program calls for the support of 20% of the cost. 8.12 Payment by Installments with Utility Bill The electricity distribution companies recently announce the start of a program to pay off the cost of the RE PV system by deducting the cost from the monthly electricity bill. This will provide a reasonable competitive solution to many sectors and enable them to own the RE system after few years from installing it. At the same time, the utility till reduce the load on
the grid and meet the increase in demand without the need to build new fossil fuel plants. 8.13 Fix Fuel Cost for Government The government has issued 400MW of solar energy so far. They will be able to fix the prices of energy generation for the expected life of the project according to the agreed upon prices in the Power Purchase Agreements (PPA). The Feed In Tariff for the first batch of 200MW is 0.12 JD/KWh (0.17USD/KWh) and the second batch is another 200MW for (0.068$/KWh). 8.14 Fix Operating Cost Fluctuation due to energy for consumers Large consumers in Jordan like the Banking, Telecommunication, Universities, Large Industries, and others, will have an opportunity to install RE Systems to cover 100% of the electricity needs. They will be able to avoid the fluctuation in the energy prices due to the fluctuation of fossil fuel prices. And they will be able to maintain their competitive edge accordingly. 8.15 Income saving and generation for Universities Several universities are moving towards developing large scale utility size projects. The first reason is to cover their annual energy demand and avoid paying the high electricity cost of 0.38USD/KWH. The projects that are under development are: a. Hashemite University 5MW b. Jordan University of Science and Technology 5MW c. Hussein Bin Talal Univeristy 4MW d. Yarmouk University 3MW e. Taffila University 1MW f. Petra University 1.5MW g. Zaytouneh University 1.5MW h. Applied Science University 0.5MW These projects automatically have an advantage being developed with this type of customer; • Educated Owner • Availability of infrastructure like; roads, water, electricity grid • Security at site • Maintenance teams The major utlity scale projects that were announced by universities until now are: • Hussein Bin Talal University 50MW • Al Beit University 85MW • University of Jordan 40MW 8.16 SELLING CARBON CREDITS Several projects in Jordan are registered under the Carbon Development Mechanism and are benefiting
from the emission reductions due to the implementation of these projects. The CDM interactive map https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/MapApp/index.html is showing that they are three projects registered in Jordan.
9.2 Industrial There are different sizes of industries in Jordan. The large industries consume about 10% of the electricity consumption in Jordan. These industries will have to adopt Renewable Energy Resources in order to offset the continuous increase in fossil fuel prices. Below is a picture of one the largest installation in the industrial sector as of this time, 1.1MW PV Rooftop system.
FIGURE 28: INDUSTRIAL ROOFTOP PV PROJECT
FIGURE26: JORDAN’s CDM REGISTED PROJECTS
It is expected that the climate change effects will be the necessary driver to adopt more of these projects under different mechanism
9.3 Commercial The largest commercial installation on grid is currently the 1MW ground mount system installed in May 2014 at the Ma’an Development Area. It is shown in the figure below.
8.17 Less Health Problems The demand center is in the large cities and the energy spent on transportation is increasing. This will increase the concentration of pollutants in the area and increase the health problems for the people living at large cities especially near transportation highways with heavy traffic. 9.0 PV PROJECT DEVELOPMENT 9.1 Residential The residential systems are relatively small systems usually less than 200KWp. The systems can be installed within 2-3 months period following the regulations and the process of application outlined by the EMRC. Below is a picture of a residential installation of 160KWp.
FIGURE 27: RESIDENTIAL PV PROJECT
FIGURE 29: JORDAN’s LARGEST GROUND MOUNT 1.0MW
9.4 Refugees Camp Several hundreds of the refugee housing that were supplied at the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011/2012 were equipped with off-grid PV system. This consisted of 0.5KWp modules with battery storage as shown in the figure below.
FIGURE 30: JORDAN’s ZATARI REFUGEE CAMP OFF GRID SOLUTION
The camp grew in the next few years and currently there is a project to install 6MW of PV on-grid projects in phases to cover the complete needs of the camp (around 12GWH annually)
The success of the project depends on other factors as well such as environmental factors like dust and continuous cleaning in desert areas.
FIGURE 33: TWO AXIS TRACKING SYSTEM 30KW AT HASHEMITE UNIVERSITY
FIGURE 31: JORDAN’s ZATARI REFUGEE CAMP ON GRID SOLUTION
9.5 Street Lighting Areas that are secure can be equipped with RE PV Street lighting. This will reduce the cost of cables and cables installation. There are over 1MW of installed PV street lighting at tourist sites. 9.6 Two Axis Tracking Pilot Projects The tracking technology increases the production of electricity from the system. The Hashemite University was one of the leaders in Jordan to install pilot projects in different kinds of PV modules and designs. The expected increase in the annual energy yield for the two axis systems is around 15-45% as shown in the figure below:
FIGURE 31: PV ANNUAL ENERGY YIELD DEPENDS ON ORIENTATION, TILT, and TRACKING [9]
9.7 Water Pumping PV Off-Grid and On-Grid systems are also used for water pumping applications. The consumer with Agricultural tariff is paying the subsidized of 0.06JD/KWh (0.084USD/KWh) will not see the PV systems as an attractive investment. But it is an attractive investment for water pumping application for the other consumers. 9.8Transportation Fifty one percent of the final energy consumption in Jordan is consumed by the transportation sector [2] Therefore, pilot projects are initiated to investigate the realistic development of the electric vehicles in Jordan. Electric PV Charging station was installed at the Royal Scientific Society in 2009 as shown in the figure below. The PV station generates electricity that is stored in a battery system which supplies energy required to the electric car.
FIGURE 34: PV CHARGING STATION TO ELECTRIC CAR
In 2015, the Greater Amman Municipality announced that they will install 10 charging stations around the capital. Large suppliers also made electric cars available in Jordan for high end consumes like the BMW i8 shown below:
at Fujeij research station (1.65MW). The early results recorded at the research station indicate that it is a very good wind site as shown in the figure below:
FIGURE 37: FUJEIJ RESEARCH STATION WIND TURBINE 1.65MW ENERGY YILED FIGURE 35: HIGH END CONSUMERS ELECTRIC CAR AVAILABLE
11.0 SOLAR WATER HEATER DEVELOPMENT The solar water heaters development started in Jordan in the late 1970, and currently there are over 1.124 Million m2 installed as per international report [11]. This installed capacity is reducing the primary energy demand by 145000 toe annually [2]. The SWH are directly contributing to 1.78% to the 2020 RE target. Most of these systems are single family domestic hot water systems, and the engineering, manufacturing, and operation and maintenance didn’t progress at the same rate as the population demand.
This was followed by the completion of installation of Taffila 117MW in May 2015. The wind far has 38 turbines VESTAS 112x3.0MW with a hub height of 94 meters, blade length of 56meters and nacel weight of 70MT. The Balance of Plant was constructed by local contractor with a 250 workers on the foundations and infrastructure for around 18 months. This required special expertise and special equipment to be supported from outside Jordan. Especially for the heavy lift transporting and cranes.
FIGURE 36: SOLAR WATER HEATERS INSTALLED CAPACITIES IN JORDAN [11]
The solar hot water technologies for multi-family, for commercial, industrial, and for combi-systems (cooling and heating) need to be developed to catch up with the development of these systems internationally. Currently there are few large manufacturers and suppliers that are covering the market in addition to around 50 small suppliers as well. Engineering of larger systems will continue to be an important and required progress in Jordan in order to contribute to the RE targets by 2020. 12.0 WIND PROJECT DEVELOPMENT Jordan has renewable energy Wind projects installed since 1998 at Hofa and Ibrahimieh. The utility scale projects started in 2010 and the first online project was
FIGURE 38: CONSTRUCTION
TAFFILA
WIND
FARM
The wind farm will be operated by around 40 people for the next 20 years. The expected annual energy yield is around 400MW. The finance of this project was done through the collaboration of eight international banks.
FIGURE 40: JORDAN’S GEOTHERMAL ENERGY PROJECT FIGURE 39: TAFFILA 117MW WIND FARM
Currently Ma’an wind energy 80Mw is under construction. Several other projects are also pending finalization and are expected to start construction in 2016 as shown in the table below. TABLE 4: LIST OF CURRENT WIND PROJECTS S#
Project Name
Size
Status
0
Hofa
1.125
Old Project
0
0.32
Old Project
1
Ibrahimieh Fujeij Research Station
1.65
On Line
2
Taffila
117
Commissioned
3
Ma'an
80
Under Construction
4
Fujeij
99
Awarded
5
Rajef
83
Study stage
6
Ibrahimiah
6
Study stage
7
Lamsa
100
Study stage
Further development of 700MW of wind energy projects by 2020 is needed in order to achieve the RE targets.
In general, the technology is not cost effective yet, and few consumers are seeking the installations in case there is a specific need to be met. Overall, there are around 10 projects installed. 14.0 ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS Combating climate change is one of the key drivers toward the political movement around the world to adopt renewable energy projects. The USA, China and India have made agreements to achieve reductions in CO2 levels. Overall, Jordan’s population is small and the energy intensity is average, therefore, the carbon footprint wouldn’t be too high. 14.1 CO2 FOOTPRINT The CO2 emissions for Jordan are available in the International Energy Agency and reported annually. The figure below shows the Gram CO2 emissions /kWh from electricity generation reported by Jordan to the International Energy Agency (IEA) between 19902010 [10]. In 2010, it was reported that each KWh generates on average 581 grams CO2.
1 000 900 870
13.0 GEOTHERMAL PROJECT DEVELOPMENT Jordan has one of the largest geothermal projects in the region that was designed and constructed by one of the companies that specializes in this field. The details of the projects can be seen in the below figure.
800
815
895 860
831 834
802 800 807 747
700
740 708 702
680 682
660
566 626
600
587 589 581
500 400 300 200 100 -
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
FIGURE 41: GRAM CO2 EMISSION/KWh
The reported 2011 emission for Jordan is 19.8Million tons CO2.
14.2 CO2 Reduction from Solar Water Heaters The installed SWH capacities in Jordan are avoiding the emission of around 370,000 tons/ year from CO2. This is a great contribution and one of the best sustainable solutions in Jordan.
2019
50
400
800
464800
2020
50
400
1200
697200
14.5 Second National Communication (SNC) [12] This document was issued in 2009. According to the SNC the sectoral breakdown of the GHG emissions in Jordan is shown in the figure below. The energy sector is responsible for 74% of the GHG emissions in Jordan. Energy
FIGURE 42: CO2 REDUCTIONS FROM SOLAR WATER HEATERS USE
14.3 CO2 Reduction from Wind Energy Wind Energy in Jordan will have the largest share of renewable energies by 2020. It is expected that around 1000MWp will be installed by them. Currently the Taffila Project 117MWp is complete and operational, and the Ma’an 80MW is under construction. In order to achieve the 1000MW target, the installation rate in the table below was assumed for the purpose of this study. The estimated energy generation is also based on the Taffila Wind project design annual energy yield. The table below also shows the CO2 avoided which is based on the average CO2 generated from each KWh in Jordan. TABLE 5: 2020 CO2 EMISSION REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY GWH/ GWH/ year CO2 Year MWp year accumulated avoided
4%
Industrial Processes
1% 8%
74%
Waste
FIGURE 43: JORDAN’S SECTOR WISE GHG EMISSIONS REPORTED IN SNC
14.6 Third National Communication (TNC) [13] The expected GHG in Jordan are expected to increase in the energy sector as shown in the figure below. That is why it is important to contribute to the reduction of the GHG by adopting RE technologies which area clean and affordable and provide the same energy requirements. Energy
117
400
400
232400
2016
80
274
674
391306
0% 2%
2017
203
694
1368
794530
6%
2018
200
684
2051
1191795
2019
200
684
2735
1589060
2020
200
684
3419
1986325
Total
1000
13.4 CO2 Reduction from Biomass Jordan is planning to install 50MW plant for generating energy from biomass. This is a continuous operation that relies on the supply of waste material and can operate throughout the year. The estimated reductions of CO2 due to the operation of this plant are shown in the table below. TABLE 6: 2020 CO2 EMISSION REDUCTIONS DUE TO BIOMASS GWH/ GWH/year CO2 Year MWp year accumulated avoided 2018
50
400
400
232400
Agriculture
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
2015
6,185,415
14%
Industrial Processes 9%
Agriculture 83%
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Waste
FIGURE 44: JORDAN’S SECTOR WISE 2040 GHG EMISSIONS EXPECTED IN TNC
14.7 Bird Migration Issues The environmental lobby in Jordan was able to stop the development of the awarded Fujeij project (90MW) in 2012 because of birds’ issues in that area. They were able to develop of a local map for the birds in Jordan [14]. The map below is showing the location of bird migration areas and next to it are the projects that are under development in the south of the country
due to the availability of renewable energy wind and solar resources.
expected total energy yield as shown in the figure below
FIGURE 45: WIND ENERGY SITES SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE BIRD MIGRATION PROTECTED AREAS
FIGURE 46: 25 YEARS PV MODULES TOTAL ENERGY YIELD (KWh/KWp)
Investors are advised to stay away from selecting areas that are close to the birds’ migration route.
Using the average CO2 emissions in Jordan for each KWh produced as 580g CO2/KWh, the approximate reduction in CO2 per KWp is 24tons during the expected life of 25 years for the project. Therefore, based on the national plan to install 600MW by 2020, and calculating the CO2 emissions saved during the 20 years thereafter, the expected emission reductions would be 14 Million tons CO2.
15. ESIMTATED CO2 REDUCTIONS 15.1 Renewable Energy Projects by 2020 These large scale projects (200MW) will start construction by the May of 2015. The estimated CO2 reductions due to the solar energy PV projects are shown in the table below: TABLE 7: 2020 CO2 EMISSION REDUCTIONS DUE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY Project Name
EOI#1 EOI#2 Misc SWHs Wind Biomass
Total
Size
200 200 100 1.1M Mil M2
1000 50
Operat ion Date
CO2 Emission Reductio n (Ton)
No of Yrs
2016 2018 Misc
200000 200000 100000
5 3 2
1,000,000 600,000 200,000
2012 20
350000
9
3,150,000 6,200,000 700,000 11,850,000
Total Reductions (Ton CO2)
15.2 Long Term CO2 reductions Based on computer simulation using PVsyst for different types of modules used at the same location in Amman, at the same tilt angle and the same Azimuth, and taking into consideration the annual degradation specified in the data sheet for each manufacturer, the expected average life cycle energy yield is 41000KWh/KWp. There are many international suppliers in the market, and for a specific project, the annual energy yield was calculated for several suppliers and that was translated into the 25 years
TABLE 8: 2020 CO2 EMISSION REDUCTIONS DUE TO 600MW of SOLAR INSTALLED FOR 20 YEARS Criteria 1KWp
Amount 41000 24108000
1MW 600MW
Unit KWh/25 years g CO2
24108
Kg CO2
24.108
ton CO2
24108
ton CO2
14464800
ton CO2
14.4648
Million ton CO2
17. SOCIAL IMPACTS Energy enters into all walks of life and has direct impact on the lives of people. Low end consumers are more severely affected by the increase in prices of energy which will be directly affect all other sectors. The figure below shows as sample of the effect of energy on the economic sectors. Some economic sectors are more resilient than others. For example, commercial sector will just increase the cost of the products proportional to the effect of increase in energy prices. Whereas, the manufacturing sector can’t increase the prices at the same rate because products coming from China and Saudi Arabia become more
competitive, that is why many industries that heavily depend on electricity closed their businesses.
like the solar career map shown in the figure below [15].
Househ old Hotels / Tourism
Transpo rtation
Energy Hospital
Food
Manufa cturing
Comme rce
FIGURE 47: IMPACT OF ENERGY ON ECONICAL SECTORS IN DEVELOPING NATIONS
The stakeholders in the renewable energy sector are many and they have all to be integrated in order to successfully implement the RE projects. This starts with the education of engineers, technicians and labor on the renewable energy systems. Sustainable development requires that the proposed technology be affordable, socially acceptable and environmentally friendly. The current stakeholders that are working in the energy sector and that needs to be able to work with RE system, need upgrading in their skills. The vocational training center in Ma’an started in 2014 the training of 30 technicians with one year technical training in order to make them able to start working on the utility scale renewable energy Solar PV projects. Several universities are also developing their curriculum in order to accommodate for RE education at the bachelor and masters level as shown in the figure below.
FIGURE 49: SAMPLE RE SOLAR CAREER MAP [15]
The RE technology available will have an impact on the RE projects being planned and developed in order to achieve the 2020 targets and beyond. The knowledge of the RE technologies and Grid capacities will enable the stakeholders to develop an accurate map for the development of the system capacities. The will lead to social and environmental benefits like creating jobs, education, regional competitiveness, availability of financing to develop such projects. The figure below shows a map for the criteria and process areas that the RE sector will undergo. Continuous development of the process with an integrated approach will lead to positive impacts and achieving RE goals.
FIGURE 50: SUMMARY IMPACTS MAP
FIGURE 48: RENEWABLE ENERGY EDUCATION IN JORDAN
Once the market in Solar and Wind is more mature, more specialization is necessary and that will eventually be developed into a multi-tier career map
17. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Sustainable development requires that the proposed solutions are economic, environmental friendly and are socially acceptable. The RE sector is achieving all these requirements. Therefore, it is considered as a sustainable energy solution to modify the energy mix. The technologies are available commercially and at competitive rates with the fossil fuel systems. The clean technologies will keep developing and that will reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy from RE sources even further.
The regulatory framework is the key baseline in any country for the development of the RE sectors. Continuous development based on the public and private stakeholder experience throughout the development of the project is expected to take place during the next few years. Technical knowledge and workforce development is the major factor in the development of the PV sector from the start. The stakeholders will be more aware, and will be able to take better decisions. There are many economic and environmental advantages to using the RE systems. These systems will be one of the solutions adopted by nations across the globe to use clean renewable energy instead of fossil fuels which are polluting the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. RE systems are one of the solutions that must be adopted to avoid the increase of fuel prices in the future. Developing the future economical frameworks for different economic sectors to consider renewable energy sources is necessary to maintain steady and predictable growth. Because energy is integrated within the different economic sectors and some of them can’t afford the fluctuation in the fossil fuel based energy sources and will increase the operating costs, and push them out of business. The development of the sector locally will ensure the availability of national manpower to serve the RE sector regionally. 18. REFERENCES [1] Global Status Report 2015, REN21, http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/globalstatus-report/ [2] Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Energy Facts and Figures report 2014 [3] Crude Brent Oil 10 year prices, http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oilbrent.aspx?timeframe=10y [4] National Electrical Power Company (NEPCO) annual report, www.nepco.com.jo. [5] “Energy Efficiency is the Challenge for Sustainable Development” 3rd International Conference of Renewable Energy, December 9, 2013, Eng Samer A. Zawaydeh [6] “Status of Green Finance in Jordan”, Presented by Eng. Samer Zawaydeh, Msc, PMP, CRM, REP, AEE Life Member at USAID Jordan Water Reuse and Environmental Conservation Project Green Finance Conference, at Royal Scientific Society December 10, 2013, Amman, Jordan [7] http://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/projectprovide-affordable-solar-water-heaters-families [8] “The Grid (Opportunity vs. Challenges)” Amani Al-Azzam M.D.A for Operation & Planning National
Electric Power Company Jordan Franco Jordanian Forum on Renewable Energy 14 - 15 May 2014 [9] PV energy yield dependency factors http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=188 71 [10] CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights 2013, International Energy Agency (IEA), 2012 [11] Solar Water Heaters Worldwide, http://www.aeeintec.at/0uploads/dateien1016.pdf [12] Jordan’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 2009 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/jornc2.pdf [13] Jordan’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 2014, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/jornc3.pdf [14] State of Jordan's Birds Report http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/userfiles/file/sowb/co untries/SOJB_final_pdf.pdf [15] Solar Career Map http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/solar-career-map
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Mr. Zawaydeh works as Independent Engineer providing technical and management services to Owners, Architectural and Engineering Firms, Contractors and EPC projects. He is well versed in the local building codes and energy laws and regulations and an invited speaker at schools, universities, and conferences. He is actively promoting the move towards Net Zero Buildings and Zero CO2e Buildings. He is actively engaged in the local, regional and international energy sectors as Jordan Energy Chapter EDAMA President, the AEE Assistant Director of International Membership Development for Special Projects. He can be reached at
[email protected]
