Economic Modeling of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Economic Modeling of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Zohour Anouassi A00017460 Paris Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi

I n i t i a t i o n t o R e s e a r c h i n E c o n o m i c s P r o f e s s o r G r é g o i r e R o t a G r a z i o s i

Economic Modelling of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Zohour Anouassi

Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ___________________________________________________________________ 3 ACADEMIC LITERATURE ____________________________________________________________ 3 TRADE-‐OFF _______________________________________________________________________ 4 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ________________________________________________________ 4 EXPECTED OUTCOME/RESULT _______________________________________________________ 4 CONCLUSION _____________________________________________________________________ 4 BIBLIOGRAPHY ___________________________________________________________________ 5

Job Oriented Course – Dr. Grégoire Rota Graziosi

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Zohour Anouassi

Introduction Diabetes is a chronic condition that affects millions of people worldwide. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 180 million people suffer from Type 2 diabetes (Thurecht, Brown, & Yap, 2011). The organization also estimates that the prevalence of the condition is going to increase by at least 15% by the year 2030 (Willis, Asseburg, & He, 16). The increase in prevalence implies that more people will be suffering from the condition, thus creating an urgent need to address such a problem in the present. The United Arab Emirates is ranked 10th in the world in terms of prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes. Currently, approximately 20% of the population suffers from the condition. Diabetes has been linked to several complications that increase the economic burden of handling the condition for both individuals and the health sector. For example, Type 2 Diabetes leads to complications of the liver, the kidney, and the heart (Govan, Wu, Lindsay, & Briggs, 2015). The burden of managing the condition together with its associated risks increases as the prevalence rises. Governments experience difficulty in addressing such a problem through recent strategies implemented because there is no way of telling whether the desired results will be achieved. Economic models help to address this problem by providing a reliable forecast of how interventions implemented in the present will impact the future state of diabetes within a given population. Economic modelling of Type 2 Diabetes has been used in the past to help governments justify healthcare spending meant to reduce the prevalence of the disease and help those who are already victims to better manage their condition so as to reduce risks of further complications. Additionally, economic modelling helps to discern which interventions will be cost-‐effective and yield more positive results in the future. The proposal seeks to examine economic models of Type 2 Diabetes that have been designed in the past and establish their significance in tackling the problem in the United Arab Emirates. The study hypothesizes that there is a proposed model in the current literature that can match the needs of Unites Arab Emirates health initiative and be used to justify programs meant to address the problem in the present. Academic Literature The study will be conducted through a systemic review process. Prominent databases that are home to medical journals tackling diabetes issues will be selected. Such databases include PubMed, EBSCOhost, and Medline. The databases will be searched for articles addressing economic modelling of Type 2 Diabetes. To increase the volume of relevant articles for a sufficient analysis, the search will include all articles written in the last decade. An exclusion criterion will be used to determine the articles that will qualify for the final analysis. Firstly, articles that conduct a systematic review will be excluded. Such articles will mostly have summaries of information on all the available models, thus compromising the level of analysis that can be performed on them. Secondly, articles that focus on clinical trials conducted to test the viability of a given model will be excluded. Clinical trials usually occur in the highly controlled environment, which limits the applicability of their findings to other environments. However, in the case of economic models that have had clinical trials conducted in different environments, the study will consider them because their degree of generalizability will have improved. A research will also be conducted by the Ministry of Health in the United Arab Emirates to determine factors that the ministry considers important in tackling the Type 2 Diabetes. The research will also seek to evaluate the resources available at the ministry's disposal to determine which models best fit with the ministry's goal of preventing cases of Type 2 Diabetes and managing the condition of current victims to reduce risks of complication. After evaluating the ministry's goals and resources, they will be matched to the proposed economic models contained in the current literature. The models will be chosen on the basis of applicability in the current United Arab Emirates health sector and their ability to deliver positive results in the most cost-‐effective manner. The identified model will then be recommended to the ministry to help fight the diabetes menace. The Job Oriented Course – Dr. Grégoire Rota Graziosi

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Zohour Anouassi

model will be used to justify spending on Type 2 Diabetes programs and provide enough guarantees that interventions made in the present will reduce the prevalence of the disease in the future. Trade-‐off Economic modelling has significant benefits compared to short-‐term prevention and treatment methods used in Type 2 Diabetes. As argued by Watson, Preston, Squires, Chilcott, and Brennan (2014), the high prevalence of the condition in the population requires a long-‐term strategy that fuses both prevention and treatment methods to reduce the prevalence of the condition in the future. However, such strategies take long before their fruits can be realized. Governments and health ministries are discouraged from embracing such strategies because they have no way of ascertaining their success in the future. Economic modelling provides a solution to the problem by allowing stakeholders to determine the important factors they want to address in the future and how such factors match the resources at their disposal. It then becomes easy to justify the implementation of a long-‐term project that has more chances of reducing the prevalence of the condition in the future. Significance of the Study Currently, the health sector in the United Arab Emirates uses traditional prevention and cure methods to address the problem of diabetes. However, such methods have not proved very effective in the past because the prevalence of diabetes has continued to rise through the years. The study is significant in the sense that it will allow the Ministry of Health to implement long-‐term interventions that have a high probability of reducing the population affected by Type 2 Diabetes. The study will help the ministry identify an economic model of Type 2 Diabetes that matches its resources and objectives. The model will then be used to justify healthcare spending directed towards long-‐term projects meant to reduce the prevalence of the condition. Secondly, the study will contribute to the literature on the subject especially on environmental factors that determine which economic model is applicable in a given setting. Expected Outcome/Result The study hopes to identify an economic model of Type 2 Diabetes that can be used to reduce the prevalence of the disease in the United Arab Emirates population. It will also identify the specific environmental factors that make such a model suitable for the UAE's case. Conclusion Diabetes is a global problem that affects millions of people daily. Due to the complications associated with Type 2 Diabetes, individuals and governments face significant economic and healthcare burden as they try to address the condition. The prevalence of diabetes worldwide has been on an increase through the years. Long-‐Term strategies are thus required to address the problem fully and reduce its prevalence. The study seeks to conduct a systematic review on economic models of Type 2 Diabetes that can be implemented in the UAE to reduce the prevalence of the disease and its economic burden.


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Bibliography Govan, L., Wu, O., Lindsay, R., & Briggs, A. (2015). How do diabetes models measure up? A review of diabetes economic models and ADA guidelines. Journal of Health Economics and Outcomes Research , 3 (2), 132-‐152. Thurecht, L., Brown, L., & Yap, M. (2011). Economic modeling of the prevention of Type 2 Diabetes in Australia. International Journal of Microsimulation , 4 (3), 71-‐80. Watson, P., Preston, L., Squires, H., Chilcott, J., & Brennan, A. (2014). Modelling the Economics of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Prevention: A Literature Review of Methods , 12 (3), 239-‐253. Willis, M., Asseburg, C., & He, J. (16, 8 1007-‐1021). Validation of economic and health outcomes simulation model of type 2 diabetes mellitus (ECHO-‐T2DM). Journal of Medical Economics .


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