May 15, 2009 - 18-Jul-04. 11-Sep-04. 5-Nov-04. Date (dd-mmm-yy). O z o n e. To ta l Co lu m n ..... M. King Hubbert correctly predicted on this basis the peak of ...
Interparliamentary EUREKA Conference
ENERGY and SUSTAINABILITY Évora 15th May 2009 Rui Namorado Rosa Physics Department, the Universidade de Évora Évora Geophysics Centre
http://www.cge.uevora.pt/
ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY Portugal Europe
15 May 2009
3
15 May 2009
4
15 May 2009
5
15 May 2009
6
15 May 2009
7
Energy R&D&D fields • Solar radiation resource and thermal and electrical power technologies • Wind resource and technology • Geological resources identification and assessment • Geological reservoirs: hydrocarbon, geological sequestration of CO2 and geothermal resource • Biomass production and conversion into fuels • Ocean resources prospection and assessment • Autonomous electrical energy provision • Grid integration management and stability • Built environment conditioning and domotics • Efficient energy conversion and storage technologies 15 May 2009
8
Ozone Total Column (DU)
450 TOMS SPATRAM 400
350
300
250 30-Mar-04
15 May 2009
24-May-04
18-Jul-04 Date (dd-mmm-yy)
11-Sep-04
5-Nov-04
9
Energy R&D&D partnerships • R&D projects in National and European programs • International cooperation networks • Iberian International Institute for Renewable Energies (being set up) • Science and Technology Regional Network (being set up) www.rcta.uevora.pt • National consortium on Energy with state labs, universities, research units • Projects and partnerships with national enterprises • Hosting research centers of ICT enterprises 15 May 2009
10
European Union Primary Energy Resources Proven Reserves of Fossil Fuel
15 May 2009
11
European Union Dependence on Primary Energy • •
•
•
•
Despite ever improving energy intensity rate, the EU-27 is a net energy importer. EU’s indigenous primary energy production is depleting. EU's energy production satisfies less than half of its needs, with import dependency reaching almost 54% in 2006. Oil comprises the bulk of total EU energy imports (60%) followed by imports of gas (26%) and solid fuels (13%). The European Union produces less than one fifth of its total oil consumption. In 2006, the EU imported 608 Mtoe of oil . Most of the oil imports come from OPEC (38%), Russia (33%) Norway (16%) and Kazakhstan (5%). As a whole, the situation is better in the gas sector, since domestic production (mostly taking place in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) satisfies about two fifths of the consumption needs. Gas is mainly imported from three suppliers: Russia (42%), Norway (24%), Algeria (18%) followed by Nigeria (5%). Sources of coal imports are less concentrated – the largest suppliers of coal being Russia (26%) and South Africa (25%), followed by Australia (13%), Colombia (12%), Indonesia (10%) and the United States (8%). 15 May 2009
12
World-wide Trade of Crude-oil Inter-regional Flows (35 Mb/d in 2005)
15 May 2009
13
Oil and Gas pipelines supplying the European Union
15 May 2009
14
Gas pipelines supplying the European Union
15 May 2009
15
European Union Second Strategic Energy Review November 2008 AN EU ENERGY SECURITY AND SOLIDARITY ACTION PLAN
Main scenarios for 2020 In all cases net imports of fossil fuels tend to increase in time.
15 May 2009
EU-27 Mtoe
2005
Baseline projection, oil price 61$/bbl
Baseline projection, oil price $100/bbl
New Energy Policy projection, oil price $61/bbl
New Energy Policy projection, oil price $100/bbl
Primary energy demand
1811
1968
1903
1712
1672
Oil
666
702
648
608
567
Gas
445
505
443
399
345
Solids
320
342
340
216
253
Renewables
123
197
221
270
274
Nuclear
257
221
249
218
233
EU energy production
896
725
774
733
763
Oil
133
53
53
53
52
Gas
188
115
113
107
100
Solids
196
142
146
108
129
Renewables
122
193
213
247
250
Nuclear
257
221
249
218
233
Net imports
975
1301
1184
1033
962
Oil
590
707
651
610
569
Gas Mtoe (bcm)
257 (298)
390 (452)
330 (383)
291 (337)
245 (284)
Solids
127
200
194
108
124 16
ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY The Wider Picture Energy and Materials Availability
Evolution of World Population and Consumption per capita
15 May 2009
18
Evolution of World Supply of Primary Energy World Energy Supply Mtoe/year
1860-2000 (IEA)
15 May 2009
19
Evolution of World Energy Consumption structure by sector
15 May 2009
20
World Supply of Crude-oil and Allliquid Fuels
15 May 2009
21
15 May 2009
22
Consumption of Energy per Region Energy Consumption per capita (W)
Crude Oil
World average 2200 W
Population (millions) 15 May 2009
23
HYDROCARBON RESOURCES AND SUPPLY • • • • •
Cumulative discovery vs exploration effort Cumulative discovery by reserve class Giant oil fields Exploration and production: new frontiers Production stages, Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) and environment impacts • The role of the Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROI) or the Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) • Patterns of depletion • The passing of the Hydrocarbon Age 15 May 2009
24
15 May 2009
25
Cumulative discovery of Crude-oil, World except USA and Canada, by reserve class (Source: Jean Laherrère, 2003)
15 May 2009
26
Giant and Super-giant Oil Fields (Source: Mattew Simmons International Bankers, 2003)
15 May 2009
27
New Frontiers of Exploration and Production 0
the deep offshore
200
USA
400
Gulf of Mexico
depth in meters SeaWater floor depth (m)
600 800
Brazil Adriatic (Agip)
Gaboon
1000
(Petrobras) Brazil 1027 m
1200 1400
(Petrobras)
Congo
1600 1800
Brazil (Petrobras) 1709 m
Mediterranean sea
Brazil (Petrobras) 1852 m
2000 2200 Gulf of Mexico Texas 2370 m
2400 Production Exploration
2600
Gulf of Mexico (Unocal) 2965 m
2800 60
65
© CEG-IFP Janv. 2002
15 May 2009
70
Brazil (Petrobras) 2777 m
75
80 FORMATION INDUSTRIE
85
90
95
00 01 A 331*1
28
New Frontiers of Exploration and Production the Arctic Sea
15 May 2009
29
Oil field Production Stages • Primary Production – initially, the oil flows forced by the pressure prehexisting in the reservoir – That is the most productive stage, while pressure declines – with declining pressure, dissolved gas evolves • Secundary Production - EOR (to re-establish pressure) – pumping in water (Ghawar) – pumping nitrogen (Cantarell) – pumping natural gas or CO2 (US, Norway) • Tertiary Production (extreme measures) – underground pumps, surfactants, blasts – bacterial inoculation for digesting the remaining oil thereby generating pressurizing gas 15 May 2009
30
The Curse of Shrinking EROEI • The EROI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) measures how much energy (say oil barrels) needs to be spent in order to extract another barrel of oil. • EROI decreases from stage to stage and recovery of oil in place is never complete (up to 50%). The EROEI of all fossil fuels is diminishing globally. • Tar sands, oil shale and tight gas were hitherto not profitable to produce, because their EROI is low (around 5). • Once the EROI of a primary energy source approaches 1, it makes no physical sense to produce it. • If the EROI of all primary energy sources falls below a value of about 5, the industrial civilization as we know it is doomed. • The EROI of crude oil is shrinking fast. It has already shrunk by approximately a factor of 10. It is currently somewhere around 10. 15 May 2009
31
15 May 2009
32
Worldwide Oil and condensate discoveries vs production of liquid hydrocarbons Gboe/year (5-year) 70 Sources: - Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005) - Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
Deep sea (>500m) Kashagan / Shah Deniz
60
58
‘Classic’ exploration
Excl. non-conventional oils such as Athabasca and Orenoco
Liquid HC production
50
47 39
40
36
36
34
32 29
30
26 20
20
15
16
23
21
23
20 0.9
14 9
10
0
7 1
1
01/05 06/10
1
0
1
1
2
4
5
7
11/15 16/20 21/25 26/30 31/35 36/40 41/45 46/50 51/55 56/60 61/65 66/70
27
24
1.5
12
13 4.2
11
2.2
4.7
71/75 76/80 81/85 86/90 91/95 96/00 2001 2004 (*)
(*) 4-year average
15 May 2009
33
Worldwide Gas discoveries vs production of gaseous hydrocarbons Gboe/year (5-year)
(Hubbert methodology for world gas)
70 65
Deep sea (>500m) Kashagan / Shah Deniz
60
‘Classic’ exploration
40
52
Liquid HC production
50
Sources: - Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005) - Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
30 26 23
20
23
18 15
14 11
10
7
6 3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
8
9
11
13
1614 3.9 1.4
6
15
8
2.2
2
01/05 06/10 11/15 16/20 21/25 26/30 31/35 36/40 41/45 46/50 51/55 56/60 61/65 66/70 71/75 76/80 81/85 86/90 91/95 96/00 2001 2004 (*)
(*) 4-year average
15 May 2009
34
Summary of Regular and non-Conventional Oil Data Sets Source: Colin Campbell, ASPO Newsletter n.º 100, April 2009
15 May 2009
35
Evolution of oil production (World except OPEC and ex-USSR)
15 May 2009
36
World Oil Exports: Peak is passing (Source: Luis de Sousa in The Oil Drum 18 Sept.2008)
15 May 2009
37
World Coal Production
15 May 2009
38
World Production of Fossil Fuels Ultimate Reserves 1300 Gtoe (coal + oil + gas)
15 May 2009
39
World Consumption of Fossil Fuels per Capita
15 May 2009
40
ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY Materials
MATERIALS • Resources: - availability - upstream and downstream impacts of resource use • Renewable resources: - climatological and biological - biogeochemical cycles - rates of replacement - soil, water, nutrients, biomes • Non renewable resources: - the crust, the ocean and the atmosphere - geological and mineral - exploration and minning costs - scarcity and depletion • Wastes and the environmental impacts of resources’ extraction/ consumption/ use 15 May 2009
42
Economic Growth vs Growth of Energy and Materials Consumption (USA, XX century) Yearly Consumption relative to 1900
22 20
GDP
16
Energy
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1900
15 May 2009
Materials
18
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000 43
Evolution of Materials Consumption (USA, XX century)
15 May 2009
44
Resource Extraction and Depletion The case of Fisheries’ Stocks
15 May 2009
45
Historical Exemples: whale Oil and Sturgeon capture (amounts and prices)
Ugo Bardi, J. Ecodynamics, 2005 Ugo Bardi, 2008, http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4367 15 May 2009
46
Material Resources vs Environment
15 May 2009
47
Chemical Composition of the Earth’s Crust
15 May 2009
48
Availability of Mineral Commodities Decline in recovery rate + growth of energy cost in extraction
10 -2
Cumulative production
Energy spent to extract unit mass of product
0,8 0,6
10 -4 Recovery rate of extracted product
10 -6
0,4
10 -8
0,2
10 -2 15 May 2009
10 -3
10 -4
Ore grade
10 -5 49
Availability of Mineral Commodities The decline of quality (grade) of reserves The case of Copper in the USA (1750-1990)
15 May 2009
50
Economic Growth: Acumulation of Material Stock The case of Copper in the USA (1845-2000)
15 May 2009
(Source: Robert Ayres, Leslie Ayres, and Ingrid Råde, 2007)
51
Production of Mineral Commodities Energy Costs and Environmental Impacts The case of Copper in the USA
15 May 2009
(Source: Robert Ayres, Leslie Ayres, and Ingrid Råde, 2007)
52
Depletion of Scarce Mineral Commodities The case of Gold (1860-2008)
15 May 2009
(Source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Cook/apr232009.html)
53
Production is Declining in the Historic Major Mining Regions • There are 30 major gold mining companies and many junior companies. • Many of the major companies are not keeping up with reserve replacement and are also showing declining production and reserve profiles. Margins are not expanding due to the inability to add new high-grade reserves. Instead, reserves are added through acquisitions and by raising the gold price used in reserve calculations. This reflects lower average ore grade and higher production costs. • CIBC World Markets calculates a four-year world recovered gold grade decline from 1.7g/t in 2004 to 1.4g/t in 2008, that’s about an $8.70 decline in the value of every tonne of ore blasted, hauled and processed. • Like gold, several high-tech materials are scarce, energy intensive and expensive 15 May 2009
54
Major Global Producers of High-tech Metals
15 May 2009
55
Global Mineral Exploration Effort
15 May 2009
56
Distribution of Material stocks Between Nature and Technosphere The case of Iron in the USA
15 May 2009
57
ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY An Epoch of Transition
What we already knew but haven’t learn Another paradigm shift to come
Sustainable Development • •
• •
The “Brundtland report” deals with sustainable development and the change of politics needed for achieving that. The definition adopted in the report is quite well known and often cited: "Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs“. The Report of the Brundtland Commission, Our Common Future, was welcomed by the UN General Assembly in its resolution 42/187. In its “Call for Action” states: «Over the course of this century, the relationship between the human world and the planet that sustains it has undergone a profound change. When the century began, neither human numbers nor technology had the power to radically alter planetary systems. As the century closes, not only do vastly increased human numbers and their activities have that power, but major, unintended changes are occurring in the atmosphere, in soils, in waters, among plants and animals, and in the relationships among all of these. The rate of change is outstripping the ability of scientific disciplines and our current capabilities to assess and advise. It is frustrating the attempts of political and economic institutions, which evolved in a different, more fragmented world, to adapt and cope. It deeply worries many people who are seeking ways to place those concerns on the political agendas.»
15 May 2009
59
Stanley Jevons The Coal Question (1865) “If we lavishly and boldly push forward in the creation and distribution of our riches, it is hard to over-estimate the pitch of beneficial influence to which we may attain in the present.” …. …..“But the maintenance of such a position is physically impossible. We have to make the momentous choice between brief greatness and longer continued mediocrity.”
15 May 2009
60
UK Coal Production
• Mt = millions of metric tons • Production is now 16 times less than at the peak, while the average price after the peak is 2.4 times higher than before • In 1913, Britain exported 27% of its production, now it imports 74% of the coal it burns 15 May 2009
61
Growth Rate for World Coal Production
• • • •
Growth Rate = annual production/cumulative production For a constant growth rate, we cannot project an ultimate But the rate changed between 1914 and 1931 The share of coal among primary energy sources attained its maximum around 1930 and is declining ever since • However, the regional production histories, like UK coal, show trends for the ultimate, so regional analysis can be carried out • The coal markets are actually regional — only 15% is exported
15 May 2009
62
European Coal
• Includes Ukraine and Turkey, but not UK, France or Belgium 15 May 2009
63
M. King Hubbert • US Geophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston, Texas • In 1956, he wrote a paper (Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels) in which he predicted the peak year of US and World crude oil production
15 May 2009
64
Peak Oil Prediction - Hubbert’s Curve • Different oil fields are being produced at different times. • The production of each oil field grows initially, then reaches a peak, and finally decays. • Irrespective of the shape of the individual production curves, the sum of the individual production curves of the wells in a field follows invariably a bell-shaped distribution. • When integrating this data over time, the accumulated production is a s-shaped (sigmoid) curve that approximates a logistic model. • The final value of this curve ought to be the total amount of oil available for production (ultimate recoverable reserve URR). • M. King Hubbert correctly predicted on this basis the peak of oil production in the US without Alaska to occur in 1971. He also predicted world oil to peak around 2000. 15 May 2009
65
US Crude‐Oil Production
• Production is bell‐shaped, like the curves Hubbert drew • Average price after the peak is 2.6 times higher than before 15 May 2009
66
Jay Forrester System Dynamics and World Dynamics Computer scientist. Inventor of the RAM. Founder of System Dynamics discipline. The System Dynamics approach to modeling dynamic of in particular ill-defined systems was developed in the 1960’s by Jay Forrester at M.I.T. System Dynamics modeling starts by defining the set of levels (stocks) and of their rates (flows). The set of factors influencing each one of the rate variables are specified then. Forrester published his full model (Wold2) in his book World Dynamics (1971). Donella and Dennis Meadows published the results of his studies in his book Limits to Growth. The exercise serves to demonstrate how market forces alone are likely to drive the system down the path of overshoot and collapse, rather than down the path of a sustainable future. 15 May 2009
67
Meadows’ World3 Model (1972) • One year after Forrester, Meadows (also at M.I.T.) published his own world model that he named World3. • The World3 model is considerably more complex than the earlier World2 model. • Contrary to Forrester, Meadows didn’t publish the equations governing his model in his book Limits to Growth. He only published the simulation results obtained from his model. • He published the model itself in a separate book Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World in 1973. • Meadows’ model is considerably more sound than Forrester’s model, and consequently, it can answer more questions in a more reliable fashion. • Meadows published three versions of his model: in 1972, in 1992, and in 2004. 15 May 2009
68
Simulation Results World3
15 May 2009
World3
69
Different Scenarios • Although World2 and World3 use a completely different set of state variables with different interactions among them, the results are nearly identical. • In both World2 and World3 the limits to growth are initially caused by resource depletion. • Meadows (like Forrester before him) proposed to lift that limit by assuming that there are more resources available than earlier thought. • In both models, the limits to growth are then caused by excessive pollution. • Both models point to excessive pollution is rather worse than resource depletion, leading to massive die-off. • Hence measures are proposed to limit the amount of pollutants generated. • Now the limits to growth are caused by food scarcity. 15 May 2009
70
Sustainability in Question • All indicators point to the assumption that we are already consuming the remaining resources of Earth at a pace faster than the planet is able to regenerate them. • Our material standard of living is no longer sustainable. • In such a situation, it doesn’t help to relieve a limiting factor. In order to prevent the worst-case scenario, we’ll have to reduce consumption down to a sustainable level. • The most important question that the world models ought to answer is: When is the world coming out of exponential growth? They are fairly consistent in the answer to this question: It happens right about now. • Different quantities, such as fuels, minerals, water and food peak at different times, but they all peak essentially within one or two generations. • This is the direct consequence of exponential growth running up against the limitations of a finite resource, namely our planet’s carrying capacity. 15 May 2009
71
ECONOMY’S METABOLISM The Man - Nature Interdependence The need for Global Material Accounts
Economic Development vs Resources and Environment Impacts •
•
•
Unless significant steps are taken to develop improved tools for analyzing economic/ ecosystem relationships, global development will be constrained by the deterioration of the natural resource base upon which it rests and by the environmental hazards it generates. A recent study by the US National Research Council recommended that “a structured Material Flows Accounting (MFA) framework that can accept and integrate existing and future data be established” to provide a means “to determine more effective strategies for improving environmental and economic performances as well as efficiency of resource use”. A similar need, for national and macro-economic level material flow accounts, was recognized by the OECD which has organized a program for the development of common material flow accounts and indicators.
- “Materials count: The Case for Material Flow Analysis”, 2004, The National Academies Press - Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Working Group on Environmental Information and Outlooks, ENV/EPOC/SE(2004)2, June 2004
15 May 2009
73
Material and Energy Flow Accounting •
• •
•
The creation of realistic Material Flow Accounts (MFA) has been pioneered by a few European countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland and the UK) and shown to be possible at the national and European level. These accounts have resulted in overall macro indicators of national resource inputs and outputs along with detailed commodity and economic sector flows. The macro indicators, and specific commodity information, have been shown to be of value in assessing the relationship between material flows and economic and population growth, and in providing alerts of emerging problems. Previous work has resulted in considerable detailed information on the material flows associated with global use of all the major energy, agricultural, forestry, metals and minerals commodities.
World Resource Institute, “Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies”, 1977; “The Weight of Nations: Material Outflows from Industrial Economies”, 2000; “Material Flows in the U. S: A Physical Accounting of the Industrial Economy of the United States”, Draft 2004. Eurostat, “Material Use in the European Union 1980-2000: Indicators and Analysis”, ISBN 92-894-3789-8, European Communities, 2002. 15 May 2009
74
Material Flow Accounting and System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounts (SEEA) •
• •
•
Eurostat published both a detailed methodological guide on MFA and a retrospective analysis of key material use indicators (Eurostat 2001; Bringezu and Schütz 2001). Some countries have established and publish physical input-output tables (PIOT) alongside with economic input-output tables as part of regular statistical reporting. The European Environment Agency’s comprehensive and regular state of the environment reports now also includes an analysis of key material flow trends and assessment of linkages to policy (EEA 2005). The System of National Accounts (SNA) and the more recently developed System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounts (SEEA) have adopted improved accounting conventions (Bartelmus, Anielski and Pintér 2005; OECD 2000). Once fully established, material flow accounts (MFA) would enable the systematic collection of data, thus providing reliable economic/ material indicators. Sub-accounts are provided for fossil fuels, metals and industrial minerals, construction minerals, and biomass. 15 May 2009
75
Physical Input-Output Tables (PIOT) and National Accounting Matrix Enviromental Accounts (NAMEA) (SEEA-2003) •
•
•
•
The same assumptions, techniques and classifications used for converting monetary supply and use tables into input-output tables have been applied to physical supply and use tables to produce physical input-output tables (PIOT). Best correspondence between physical energy product/commodity classification and monetary product/commodity classifications, is sought for energy used in various economic statistics (national accounts, trade statistics, customs data). National Accounting Matrix Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) tables have energy commodities in the column headings and industries and households in the rows. Energy commodities also correspond with the energy commodities in the national accounts, so that their production, export, import and intermediate consumption should be identified in the national accounts. Supply of energy products/commodities must equal the use/consumption of these products/commodities in both physical and monetary units. 15 May 2009
76
Economy-wide Material Balance
The main economy-wide indicators include domestic material input (DMI), domestic material consumption (DMC), total material requirement (TMR), 15 May 2009 physical trade balance (PTB), domestic processed output (DPO), etc.
77
Specific MFA-Energy Flow Accounts
15 May 2009
(Source: Schandl, H., C.M. Grünbühel, H. Haberl, H. Weisz, July 2002) 78
What one cannot observe and measure one cannot fully understand and command. Global material flow accounts overarching existing data bases, and incorporating all Energy flows, ought to be established in open, comprehensive and regular basis.
Thank You !
Bibliography 1 • • • • • • • • • • • •
Hubbert’s Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change, David Rutledge, Caltech, 2008. The Coal Question, William Stanley Jevons, London: Macmillan and Co., 1865. http://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Jevons/jvnCQ.html Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, M. King Hubbert, Shell Development Company, Publication Nº. 95, Houston Texas, for the American Petroleum Institute, June 1956. European Commission>Research>Energy http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/index_en.htm United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Sustainable Energy Division http://www.unece.org/energy/Welcome.html Second Strategic Energy Review ‐ Securing our Energy Future, November 2008, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/strategies/2008/2008_11_ser2_en.htm International Politics in the Internet, European Union Energy Policy. http://www.diplomaticnet.com/uk/act/act145.html Europe’s Energy Portal, http://www.energy.eu/ A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality, Graham M. Turner, Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 397– 411. Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil, Charles A. S. Hall and John W. Day, Jr., American Scientist, Volume 97(3), 230‐237, 2009. SEEA/Environmental accountings’ user needs with regards to energy statistics, Julie L. Hass and Kristine E. Kolshus, Division for Environmental Statistics, Statistics Norway, December 2007. World Energy Outlook 2008, Options for a Cleaner Smarter Energy Future, IEA, November 2008 15 May 2009
80
Bibliography 2 • • • •
• • • • • •
Les prévisions de la production mondiale de pétrole et de gaz face à de fortes contraintes économiques, Jean Laherrere (ASPO France), CLUB DE NICE, VII Forum Energie et Géopolitique, 12‐14 Novembre 2008 Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts, Pierre‐René Bauquis (Groupe TOTAL), November 2006. Global Energy Assessment (GEA), International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), February 2009. http://www.iiasa.ac.at Peak‐Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries: Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries, Kjell Eleklett (Uppsala University), Euopean Conference of Ministers of Transport, CEMT/OCDE/JTRC/TR(2007)13, 24 September 2007. One Planet Economy, Mathis Wackernagel (Global Footprint Network), Alliance for Global Sustainability, 19 March 2007. International Experience in Establishing Indicators for the Circular Economy and Considerations for China, Report for the Environment and Social Development Sector Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region, The World Bank, László Pintér, May 2006. MEASURING MATERIAL FLOWS AND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY, Inventory of Country Activities, OECD 2008. Europe's current and future energy position: Demand – resources – investments, Second Strategic Energy Review, AN EU ENERGY SECURITY AND SOLIDARITY ACTION PLAN, Commission Staff Working Document, Brussels, SEC(2008) 2871 , 13.11.2008. THE RAW MATERIALS INITIATIVE — MEETING OUR CRITICAL NEEDS FOR GROWTH AND JOBS IN EUROPE, Commission Staff Working Document, Brussels, SEC(2008) 2741. EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan: 2nd Strategic Energy Review, Brussels, 13 November 2008. 81 15 May 2009
Bibliography 3 • • • • • • • • • •
Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future, Oxford University Press in 1987. http://www.un‐documents.net/wced‐ocf.htm What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have? Charles A. S. Hall, Stephen Balogh and David J. R. Murphy, Energies 2009, 2, 25‐47. doi:10.3390/en20100025. Rare Minerals, The Mother of Invention, PICTURES OF THE FUTURE, 22‐24, Fall 2008. http://w1.siemens.com/innovation/en/publikationen/publications_pof/pof_fall_2008/roh stoffe/seltene_rohstoffe.htm International Copper Study Group, THE WORLD COPPER FACTBOOK 2007 www.icsg.org Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production, Mikael Höök, Robert Hirsch, Kjell Aleklett, Energy Policy, Volume 37(6) 2009, 2262‐2272. THE WORLD’S GIANT OILFIELDS: How Many Exist? How Much Do They Produce? How Fast Are They Declining?, Matthew R. Simmons, Simmons & Company International, 2001. Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse, François Cellier, The Oil Drum, May 16, 2007. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2534 What Can World Models Tell Us About Peak Oil Supply and Global Warming? François E. Cellier, Department of Computer Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland 2009. COAL: RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION, Energy Watch Group / Ludwig‐Boelkow‐ Foundation, March 2007 Renewable Energy Outlook 2030, Energy Watch Group Global Renewable Energy Scenarios, Energy Watch Group / Ludwig‐Boelkow‐Foundation, November 2008 15 May 2009
82
