Apr 24, 2015 - Forex Factory (http://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php) ... (first half) there is also the cross from positive St.Dev. to negative St.Dev., and this is an.
Forex Factory (http://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php) - Commodities and Stocks (http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=138) - - Financial Markets Observatory Lab (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=511519)
ForexFactory thread, Financial Markets Observatory Lab., Commodities and Stocks Forum. – 2015 April 24, post n.35.
®► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀® Notes and charts about the comparation among Bank sector of S&P500 vs. S&P500 Index
and vs. US Credit Market Debt. ☒ Aim of the post. In this post there are some charts about the comparation among the financial sectors of S&P500 (Diversified Financials, Banks, Insurances) vs. the S&P500 Index, in order to search possible evolutions and trends in the stregth of the financial sectors vs. the main US stock benchmark (see previous posts: #2). The chart started in 1940 is in linear format, monthly frame, banks only, and with two levels of Standard Deviation. Moreover there is a curve of the US Credit Market Debt (linear format, monthly frame), in order to aboutevaluate the evolution of leverage in US vs. the strength-evolution of financial sectors, and also a curve of relative market cap of the financial sectors vs. MSCI Global Equity (linear format, monthly frame). ☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post. ► Global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK). ► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT). ☒ Main Graphical Elements. ✔ The bank ratio is in an historical bearish channel from the double-tops after WW/II. There is an increase of slope in the decade ''80 (second half), with down-exit of curve from bearish channel; during this decade (first half) there is also the cross from positive St.Dev. to negative St.Dev., and this is an important & key event in the loss of strength of banks vs. S&P500. Two important recent phases of new strength losses, are in the second half of ''90 and in the middle of 2000-2010, with current values at about secular bottom, and in continuation-bear both below the historical bearish channel and below the -1 St.Dev. !!! We can see only one phase with a big recovery of ratio: ~1966/1980. ✔ The Credit Market Debt curve shows a continuation-bull with only a little corrective phase (reddish-area). ✔ The total financial market cap. vs. MSCI global equity cap., shows a recent and important SellOff from 2005, with a recovery of 50% only in 2015. ✔ the current situation (charts from 1989) of the 3 financial subsector ratios, shows Banks and Insurances with the greatest loss of strength inside financial sector of S&P500, with actual ratio-values well below the previous lows of 2000 (compare to Diversified Financials).
☒ Notes. ✔ The Credit Market Debt is in geometric increase, particularly from ''80 decade, and without important corrective phases; this curve is linked to financial leverage. ✔ Banks of S&P500 shows a progressive and historical loss of strength (or performance) vs. S&P500, linked to loss of market cap. in recent years. ✔ Insurance sector shows a ratio evolution very similar to Banks ratio. An interesting question is the following: the US Credit Market Debt (and the global leverage of the US financial system) is in tremendous increase, but it is managed by a financial sector (Bank, Insurance, Diversified) in continuous decreases of strength and capitalization vs. US stock market !!! Bancassurance increasingly smaller (vs. S&P500), that manages a leverage ever greater ??? Is this a structural cause of the instability of the financial markets from 1998/2000 onwards? ☒ References. #1.-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
#2.-http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/30208602-post380.html ☒ Chart sources. ❖ Bloomberg, MSCI, StockCharts.
