Notes and charts about the ForEx BlackSwan of Swiss Franc (CHF), powered by Swiss National Bank in January 15, 2015, based on a qualitative analysis of ...
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ForexFactory thread, Financial Markets Observatory Lab., Commodities and Stocks Forum. – 2014 January 20, post n.16.
®► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀® ForEx BlackSwan of Swiss Franc (CHF), powered by Swiss National Bank in January 15, 2015, based on a qualitative analysis of CoT curves. Notes and charts about the
Aim of the post. ☒ The Swiss National Bank's decision of Jan.15 2015 (#4) to abandon the block of Euro/CHF value (minimum level: 1.20000), has caused one of the largest daily & weekly movements in ForEx history. The main market mouvers was already informed & prepared of the arrival of this big event? This monstre news has been used in advance by the main market players, or this news was a global BlackSwan (#3)? In order to obtain data for these questions, in this post there is a qualitative study of the curves of the report '''The Commitments of Traders (CoT)''' by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (#1, #2) of the Swiss Franc future. In this report (each Tuesday) are reported open interest, separately by Reportable and Non Reportable positions. For Reportable positions, additional data is provided for Commercial and Non Commercial holdings or Large. Non Reportable are also called Small Traders/Players. These players invest directly on the future, with small size of contracts (Non Reportable). Commercial Traders/Players are also called Hedgers, and use the futures market primarily to hedge their business activities on the underlying (in this case the CHF). The Large Traders/Players (Trenders or Financials) invest directly on the future, according to its main trend, but with important size of contracts (Reportables). General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post. ► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK); ► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT). Main graphical elements. ☒ The main graphical elements of CoT curves are as follows. ✔ The current spread of net CoT positions of Commercial vs. Large is important, compared to the previous dark-gray area; moreover shows a typical bearish array, with Commercial in positive area and Large in negative area. ✔ The Small or Non Reportable player shows an important (historically) short net positioning on CHF future.
✔ Open Interest of CHF future is in normal zone (see 2006-2007). ✔ The curves ''All positions of Commercial and of Large''', divided by Long & Short, according to total net CoT positions. ☒ Notes. ✔ Total Reportable players are in a wrong position, according to their net curves vs. the mostre Sky��Rocket of CHF. ✔ Non Reportable players are in a very wrong position, according to historical behaviour of its net CoT curve. ✔ All players were in wrong position, although this was the largest daily (and weekly?) movement in the history of ForEx. ✔ According both to the CoT curves and the following decisions of some Central Banks in monetary policy, the decision of SNB is much more similar to a measure due to a panic-like situation. ✔ For this reason (panic-like decision, unplanned), the decision has displaced all the major players in the market. ✔ The panic in the SNB was caused by unsustainable to maintain Euro/CHF blocked to the level of 1.20000, especially in case of approval of QE by the ECB in the upcoming meeting in late January. ✔ This suggests(???) that in the current globalized ecosystem of the capital markets, it is almost impossible the persistence of central banks of limited size, such as Switzerland within Europe, and several other EurAsian countries out of EuroZone (and out of RubleZone & YuanRenminbiZone).
References. #1.-http://www.cftc.gov/MARKETREPORTS/COMMITMENTSOFTRADERS/INDEX.HTM #2.-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commitments_of_Traders #3.-http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp #4.-http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8008596#post800859 6
Previous Posts/Charts. Au$, Cd$, GBP, € -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6149656#post614965 6 -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4813638#post481363 8 -http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/28742255-post286.html -http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/28743823-post287.html -http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/25660689-post459.html US$, ¥ -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4814175#post481417 5 -http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4534039&postcount=11 1 NZ$, ZAR -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4819018#post481901 8 CHF-Index -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4821375#post482137 5 -http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/25660689-post459.html -http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/24453109-post340.html -http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/24452597-post3152.html
Chart sources. ❖ MRCI; TimingCharts.
