Key findings on fish consumption. ⢠Very high! ⢠Great dependence in rural areas! ⢠Rural > urban. ⢠>90 kg for 7 PICTs. ⢠PNG is an exception ...
Fish, food security, climate change By Eric CLUA Prepared with Johann BELL
Key questions How can tuna best contribute to economic growth? How much fish will be needed for future food security? How many livelihoods can fish resources sustain?
Major drivers Population growth
Major drivers
Major drivers Population growth High dependence on fish
SPC/WorldFish/IRD Study ‘Planning the use of fish for food security in the Pacific’
• Estimate fish needed for good nutrition, and current consumption
• Forecast the fish required (to 2030) • Identify how to meet future needs for fish
Fish needed for good nutrition Basic protein requirement is 0.7 g/kg body weight/day (WHO)
• Ideal: 50% of protein derived from fish
• = 35 kg/person/year
Current consumption of fish
• Based on household income and expenditure surveys (HIES) for 15 PICTs
• Socio-economic surveys of fishing villages in 16 PICTs during PROCFish
Key findings on fish consumption Very high!
• >70 kg per capita for 6 PICTs in Micro. & Poly.
• >35 kg in 5 PICTs • ~20 kg in 4 PICTs • ~10 kg in PNG
Key findings on fish consumption Very high! Great dependence in rural areas!
• Rural > urban • >90 kg for 7 PICTs • PNG is an exception
Key findings on fish consumption Very high! Great dependence in rural areas! Subsistence!
• In rural areas, 60-90% of fish is caught by household
• ~50% in urban areas of smaller PICTs
Key findings on fish consumption Very high! Great dependence in rural areas! Subsistence! Fresh fish!
• 75-99% of diet is fresh fish in rural and urban areas
Key findings on fish consumption Very high! Great dependence in rural areas! Subsistence! Fresh fish! Fish supplies most animal protein!
• In rural areas fish contributes 70-90% of animal protein intake
• PNG is an exception
Main messages
• Good news - people are eating plenty of fish
• Reality
- they have few alternatives
• Action
- Provide continued access to the
fish people need subsistence fishing in rural areas cheap fish in urban areas
Dimensions of the challenge
Fish needed for food (tonnes) Some examples PICT Solomon Islands - urban - rural Kiribati - urban - rural Tonga - urban - rural
2010
2030
18,000 3,400 14,600 7,700 3,500 4,200 3,500 900 2,600
30,000 8,700 21,300 10,200 6,100 4,100 3,900 1,400 2,500
Where will the fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries Close
at hand
Traditional
use
Solomon Islands 40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10 0
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Coastal fish production (t x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
The problem
Solomon Islands 40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10 0
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Coastal fish production (t x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
The problem
Solomon Islands 40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10 0
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Coastal fish production (t x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
The problem
Solomon Islands 40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10 0
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Coastal fish production (t x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
The problem
Solomon Islands 40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10 0
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Coastal fish production (t x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
The problem
Solomon Islands 40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10 0
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Coastal fish production (t x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
The problem
A widespread problem
Based on estimated production of 3 tonnes of fish per km2 of coral reef to a depth of 40 m
What is the solution?
1. Maintain the production from coastal fisheries
Gap to be filled
2. Increasing access to fish
Tuna!
2. Increasing access to fish • Storing and distributing low-value tuna landed by industrial fleets
2. Increasing access to fish • Low cost, inshore fish aggregating devices (FADs) for coastal subsistence fishers
2. Increasing access to fish • Small pond aquaculture for rural dwellers
2. Increasing access to fish • Develop fisheries for small pelagics for coastal communities
Food security today Food Food security security for for rural rural areas areas
Coastal finfish fisheries
Freshwater fisheries
Coastal export fisheries
Aquaculture export commodities Subsistence
Sales
Livelihoods
Improved security today Food security forfor rural areas Food security rural areas
Coastal finfish fisheries
Freshwater fisheries
Coastal export fisheries
Aquaculture export commodities
Tuna FADs
Pond aquaculture
Livelihoods
New options
New vehicles
Keys to management of coastal fisheries • Support community-based management • Implement easy-to-use indicators • Re-establish customary marine tenure • Implement national fisheries regulations • Promote cooperation between communities Source: Paper in Marine Policy (2009) by SPC, WorldFish and IRD
How could climate change derail these plans?
Projected climate for the Pacific under low and high emissions scenarios Climate feature Surface atmospheric temp. (0C) Sea surface temp. (0C) Sea level rise (cm)* Rainfall
Cyclone frequency and intensity ENSO Aragonite saturation levels in ocean CO2 (ppm)
Low emissions (B1) 2035
High emissions (A2) 2035
Low emissions (B1) 2100
High emissions (A2) 2100
0.5-0.8
0.5-0.8
1.0-1.5
2.5-3.0
SST changes are similar to those for surface temperatures 8
8
5-15% increase in tropics, decreases in subtropics
5-15% increase in tropics, decreases in subtropics
18-38
23-51
10-20% increase 10-20% increase in tropics, in tropics, decreases in decreases in subtropics subtropics
Cyclones less frequent but more intense (cyclone belt only) ENSO events will continue but uncertain if they will increase Adequate to marginal for coral reefs
Adequate to marginal for coral reefs
Marginal
Low to risky for coral reefs
~400
~400?
450-500
750-800
Possible Impacts on fisheries • Changes to the distribution of tuna Preliminary modeling
Tonnes of skipjack tuna per km2
Possible Impacts on fisheries • Changes to the distribution of tuna • Decline in coral reefs and coastal fisheries
Possible Impacts on fisheries • Changes to the distribution of tuna • Decline in coral reefs and coastal fisheries • Greater damage to infrastructure
Possible Impacts on fisheries • Changes to the distribution of tuna • Decline in coral reefs and coastal fisheries • Greater damage to infrastructure • Higher costs for safe fishing at sea
Possible Impacts on fisheries • Changes to the distribution of tuna • Decline in coral reefs and coastal fisheries • Greater damage to infrastructure • Higher costs for fishing at sea • Difficulties in developing pond aquaculture
Preparing for climate change now • Diversify the ways to catch, process and distribute fish to build resilience the more options available, the more likely some will not be affected, or favoured, by climate change • Reduce stresses on habitats and stocks to assist them to adapt • Expected the unexpected!
Possible Outcomes • Reef fish become scarcer
Solutions available through diversification • Rely more on tuna for food Fish needed for food in 2030 (tonnes) 0
5000
Tuna
Tuna
10000
15000
Coastal
Coastal
20000
Aqua
Aqua
Information
Thank you
