FUNDAMENTALS OF FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS - GBV

27 downloads 9028 Views 388KB Size Report
SEVENTH EDITION. FUNDAMENTALS OF. FUTURES AND OPTIONS. MARKETS. GLOBAL EDITION. John C. Hull /. Maple Financial Group Professor of  ...
SEVENTH

EDITION

FUNDAMENTALS OF FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS GLOBAL EDITION John C. Hull

/

Maple Financial Group Professor of Derivatives and Risk Management Joseph L. Rotman School of Management University of Toronto

Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo

CONTENTS IN BRIEF

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25.

Business snapshots Preface Introduction Mechanics of futures markets Hedging strategies using futures Interest rates Determination of forward and futures prices Interest rate futures Swaps Securitization and the credit crisis of 2007 Mechanics of options markets Properties of stock options ." Trading strategies involving options Introduction to binomial trees Valuing stock options: The Black-Scholes-Merton model Derivatives markets in developing countries Options on stock indices and currencies Futures options The Greek letters Binomial trees in practice Volatility smiles ( Value at risk Interest rate options Exotic options and other nonstandard products Credit derivatives Weather, energy, and insurance derivatives Derivatives mishaps and what we can learn from them Answers to quiz questions Glossary of terms DerivaGem software Major exchanges trading futures and options Tables for N(x) Index

/.

xv xvii 1 21 47 79 103 131 157 189 205 227 249 267 289 317 323 339 355 387 409 425 457 477 497 517 525 537 561 579 585 586 589

Contents Business Snapshots

xv

Preface

xvii

Chapter 1: 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11

Introduction Futures Contracts History of Futures Markets The Over-the-Counter Market Forward Contracts Options History of Options Markets Types of Traders Hedgers Speculators Arbitrageurs Dangers Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

Chapter 2: 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11

Mechanics of Futures Markets Opening and Closing Futures Positions Specification of a Futures Contract Convergence of Futures Price to Spot Price The Operation of Margins OTC Markets Newspaper Quotes Delivery Types of Trader and Types of Order Regulation Accounting and Tax Forward vs. Futures Contracts Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

!

.

1 1 2 4 5 6 8 9 9 12 15 16 16 18 18 18 19 21 21 22 25 26 29 31 34 35 36 38 40 42 43 43 43 44 vii

Vlll

Contents

Chapter 3: 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6

Hedging Strategies Using Futures Basic Principles Arguments for and against Hedging Basis Risk Cross Hedging Stock Index Futures Rolling the Hedge Forward Summary Further Reading .^ Quiz ".'....:.'.: Practice Questions Further Questions Appendix: Review of Key Concepts in Statistics and the CAPM

Chapter 4: 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8

Interest Rates Types of Rates Measuring Interest Rates Zero Rates Bond Pricing Determining Treasury Zero Rates Forward Rates Forward Rate Agreements Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions Appendix: Exponential and Logarithmic Functions

Chapter 5: 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14

Determination of Forward and Futures Prices Investment Assets vs. Consumption Assets Short Selling Assumptions and Notation Forward Price for an Investment Asset Known Income Known Yield Valuing Forward Contracts Are Forward Prices and Futures Prices Equal? Futures Prices of Stock Indices Forward and Futures Contracts on Currencies Futures on Commodities The Cost of Carry Delivery Options Futures Prices and the Expected Spot Prices Summary Further Reading Quiz

47 47 50 53 57 61 67 68 69 70 71 72 74 79 79 81 83 84 86 88 90 93 95 96 96 97 98 100

'.

^..

103 103 104 105 106 109 Ill Ill 114 114 116 120 123 123 124 126 127 128

Contents

ix Practice Questions Further Questions

128 130

Chapter 6: 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6

Interest Rate Futures Day Count and Quotation Conventions Treasury Bond Futures Eurodollar Futures Duration Duration-Based Hedging Strategies Using Futures Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

131 131 134 139 142 147 151 152 152 153 154

Chapter 7: 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11

Swaps Mechanics of Interest Rate Swaps Day Count Issues Confirmations The Comparative-Advantage Argument The Nature of Swap Rates Determining LIBOR/Swap Zero Rates Valuation of Interest Rate Swaps Currency Swaps Valuation of Currency Swaps Credit Risk Other Types of Swap Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

Chapter 8: 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4

Securitization and the Credit Crisis of 2007 Securitization The U.S. Housing Market What Went Wrong? Avoiding Future Crises Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

189 189 193 197 198 201 202 202 203 _ 203

Chapter 9: 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6

Mechanics of Options Markets Types of Option Option Positions Underlying Assets Specification of Stock Options Trading Commissions

205 205 208 210 211 215 216

". .7. ."

157 157 164 164 165 168 >..169 170 175 178 180 182 184 185 185 186 188

X

Contents 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10 9.11 9.12

Margins The Options Clearing Corporation Regulation Taxation Warrants, Employee Stock Options, and Convertibles Over-the-Counter Markets Summary Further Reading Quiz ; Practice Questions "!...:.r..~. Further Questions

217 218 219 219 221 222 222 223 223 224 225

Chapter 10: 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7

Properties of Stock Options Factors Affecting Option Prices Assumptions and Notation Upper and Lower Bounds for Option Prices Put-Call Parity Calls on a Non-Dividend-Paying Stock Puts on a Non-Dividend-Paying Stock Effect of Dividends : Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

Chapter 11: 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4

Trading Strategies Involving Options Strategies Involving a Single Option and a Stock Spreads Combinations Other Payoffs Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

249 249 251 260 263 263 264 264 264 265

Chapter 12: 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9

Introduction to Binomial Trees A One-Step Binomial Model and a No-Arbitrage Argument Risk-Neutral Valuation.... Two-Step Binomial Trees A Put Example American Options Delta Determining u and d Increasing the Number of Time Steps Options on Other Assets Summary Further Reading Quiz

267 267 271 273 276 277 278 279 280 281 286 286 286

:

227 227 231 231 235 239 240 243 244 245 245 246 247

Contents

xi Practice Questions Further Questions

287 288

Valuing Stock Options: The Black-Scholes-Merton Model Assumptions about How Stock Prices Evolve Expected Return Volatility Estimating Volatility from Historical Data Assumptions Underlying Black-Scholes-Merton The Key No-Arbitrage Argument The Black-Scholes-Merton Pricing "Formulas Risk-Neutral Valuation Implied Volatilities 7 Dividends Valuing Employee Stock Options Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions .' Appendix: The Early Exercise of American Call Options on Dividend-Paying Stocks

289 290 293 293 295 298 298 299 302 303 304 306 310 311 311 312 313

Chapter 14: 14.1 14.2 14.3

Derivatives Markets in Developing Countries China's Markets India's Markets Other Developing Countries Summary Further Reading

317 317 319 320 320 321

Chapter 15: 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6

Options on Stock Indices and Currencies Options on Stock Indices Currency Options Options on Stocks Paying Known Dividend Yields Valuation of European Stock Index Options Valuation of European Currency Options American Options Summary Further Reading Quiz...: Practice Questions Further Questions

323 323 326 328 330 332 334 335 335 336 336 338

Chapter 16: 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7

Futures Options Nature of Futures Options Reasons for the Popularity of Futures Options European Spot and Futures Options Put-Call Parity Bounds for Futures Options Valuation of Futures Options Using Binomial Trees A Futures Price as an Asset Providing a Yield

339 339 341 342 342 344 344 347

Chapter 13: 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.10 13.11

315

xii

Contents 16.8 16.9 16.10 16.11

Chapter 17: 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.10 17.11 17.12 17.13 17.14

Black's Model for Valuing Futures Options Using Black's Model Instead of Black-Scholes-Merton American Futures Options vs. American Spot Options Futures-Style Options Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions....

347 347 349 349 350 351 351 351 353

The Greek Letters....!.....:... Illustration Naked and Covered Positions A Stop-Loss Strategy Delta Hedging -. Theta Gamma Relationship Between Delta, Theta, and Gamma Vega Rho 7. The Realities of Hedging Scenario Analysis Extensions of Formulas Creating Options Synthetically for Portfolio Insurance Stock Market Volatility Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

355 355 356 356 358 365 367 370 371 373 374 374 376 378 380 381 382 382 383 385

Chapter 18: Binomial Trees in Practice 18.1 The Binomial Model for a Non-Dividend-Paying Stock 18.2 Using the Binomial Tree for Options on Indices, Currencies, and Futures Contracts 18.3 The Binomial Model for a Dividend-Paying Stock 18.4 Extensions of the Basic Tree Approach 18.5 Alternative Procedure for Constructing Trees 18.6 Monte Carlo Simulation ... Summary : Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

387 387

Chapter 19: 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4

409 409 412 414 416

Volatility Smiles Foreign Currency Options Equity Options The Volatility Term Structure and Volatility Surfaces When a Single Large Jump Is Anticipated

394 397 399 401 404 405 406 406 406 407

Contents

xiii Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions Appendix: Why the Put Volatility Smile is the Same as the Call Volatility Smile

Chapter 20: 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8

Value at Risk The VaR Measure Historical Simulation \...:..;.. Model-Building Approach Generalization of Linear Model Quadratic Model Estimating Volatilities and Correlations Comparison of Approaches Stress Testing and Back Testing : Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions Appendix: Cash-Flow Mapping

:

417 418 419 419 420 422 425 425 ....428 432 435 439 442 448 449 449 450 451 452 453 455

Chapter 21: 21.-1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.7

Interest Rate Options Exchange-Traded Interest Rate Options Embedded Bond Options Black's Model European Bond Options Interest Rate Caps European Swap Options Term Structure Models Summary Further Reading Quiz 1 Practice Questions Further Questions

457 457 459 459 461 463 469 472 473 474 474 475 476

Chapter 22: 22.1 22.2 22.3

Exotic Options and Other Nonstandard Products Exotic Options Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Nonstandard Swaps Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

477 .477 483 485 492 492 493 493 494

Chapter 23: Credit Derivatives 23.1 Credit Default Swaps 23.2 Determining CDS Spreads

497 497 502

xiv

Contents 23.3 Total Return Swaps 23.4 CDS Forwards and Options 23.5 Collateralized Debt Obligations Summary Further Reading Quiz Practice Questions Further Questions

507 509 509 513 513 514 514 515

Chapter 24: 24.1 24.2 24.3

Weather, Energy, and Insurance Derivatives Weather Derivatives..';......;.. Energy Derivatives Insurance Derivatives : Summary Further Reading Quiz : Practice Questions Further Question Chapter 25: Derivatives Mishaps and What We Can Learn From Them 25.1 Lessons for All Users of Derivatives 25.2 Lessons for Financial Institutions 25.3 Lessons for Nonfinancial Corporations Summary Further Reading Answers to Quiz Questions Glossary of Terms

517 517 518 521 522 523 523 524 524 525 525 529 534 535 536 537 561

DerivaGem Software The Options Calculator The Applications Builder Major Exchanges Trading Futures and Options Table for N(x) When x < 0 Table for N(x) When x > 0 Index \

579 580 583 585 586 587 589