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Global warming and energy yield evaluation of Spanish wheat straw electricity generation
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– A LCA that takes into account parameter uncertainty and variability.
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Sastre C. M.1*, González-Arechavala Y.1 and Santos A. M.1.
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(1) Institute for Research in Technology - ICAI School of Engineering - Comillas Pontifical
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University. Alberto Aguilera 23, 28015 Madrid (Spain) Phone: +34 915422800, Fax: +34
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915423176
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*Corresponding author:
[email protected]
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Abstract
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This paper aims to provide more accurate results in the life cycle assessment (LCA) of
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electricity generation from wheat straw grown in Spain through the inclusion of parameter
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uncertainty and variability in the inventories. We fitted statistical distributions for the all the
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parameter that were relevant for the assessment to take into account their inherent uncertainty
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and variability. When we found enough data, goodness of fit tests were performed to choose the
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best distribution for each parameter and, when this was not possible, we adjusted triangular or
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uniform distributions according to data available and expert judge. To obtain a more complete
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and realistic LCA, we considered the consequences of straw exportation for the agricultural
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system, specially the loss of soil organic carbon and the decrease of future fertility. We also
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took into account all the inputs, transformations and transports needed to generate electricity in
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a 25 MWe power plant by straw burning. The inventory data for the agricultural, the transport
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and the transformation phases were collected considering their most common values and ranges
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of variability for the Spanish case. We used Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to
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obtain global warming potential (GWP) and fossil energy (FOSE) consumption of the system.
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These results were compared with those of the electricity generated from natural gas in Spanish
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power plants, as fossil reference energy system. Our results showed that for the majority of the
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simulations electricity from wheat straw biomass combustion produced less greenhouse gases
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(GHG) emissions and consumed less fossil energy than electricity from natural gas. However,
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only 58 % of the simulations achieved the sustainability threshold of 60 % GHG savings
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proposed by the European Union (EU). Our analysis showed that agricultural field works and
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the loss of soil organic carbon due to straw exportation were the most important phases for
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FOSE consumption and GWP respectively. According to parameters sensitivity analysis, the
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loss of soil organic carbon was completely dependent on the isohumic coefficient and the soil
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carbon content factor values. Due to this fact, local and specific estimates of these parameters
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are relevant tasks to be performed in order to reduce uncertainties and provide a definitive
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answer to the compliance of the EU sustainability criteria.
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Keywords: bioenergy; crop residues; life cycle assessment (LCA); global warming potential;
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uncertainty; sustainability criteria
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1. Introduction
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With the purpose of reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and depletion of non
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renewable energy sources, the European Union (EU) Member States have committed
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themselves to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU's energy mix to 20% and reduce
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GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 [1]. Bioenergy is intended to play a central role in the
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accomplishment of these objectives accounting for more than half of projected 2020 Europe’s
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energy output [2]. Potential GHG reductions of different pathways to produce bioenergy from
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solid [3,4] and liquid [5-8] are being evaluated intensively [9]. Several studies suggest that
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lignocellulosic biomass sources for heat and electricity production may perform better in GHG
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assessments when compared with crops used as feedstock for first generation liquid biofuels
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[10-13]. Crop residues [14-17] and dedicated crops [3,4] can be used as source of
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lignocellulosic biomass for bioenergy whereas the first ones usually offer higher resource
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efficiency [2]. Furthermore, the use of dedicated energy plantations for bioenergy in Europe
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could produce indirect land use changes rising food prices in other countries. For these reasons,
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the use of crop residues as lignocellulosic feedstock for heat and electricity production can be
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considered as a techno-economic feasible option [18-24] that helps to accomplish previously
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mentioned objectives [16,25].
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Wheat is one of the most important Spanish rainfed crops in terms of its cropping surface and
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total production per year with 2.0 million ha and 5.3 dry Mt in average over the last decade [26],
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thereby approximately 5.3 dry Mt of wheat straw corresponding to 90 PJ of biomass energy are
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jointly produced every year. In most of the Spanish regions, there is an excess of straw due to
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the small relevance of ruminant livestock and/or the preference for barley as source of energy
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for its feeding. In this situation, the surplus wheat straw is usually incorporated into the soil
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aiming to maintain or to increase soil organic matter stock. In the described framework, wheat
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straw could be alternatively sold to biomass power plants as feedstock for electricity generation,
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instead of being incorporated into the soil. This alternative use of straw can help to reduce the
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current national energy dependence and to accomplish EU objectives of GHG reduction and
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renewable energies share. Nevertheless, a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of this use should be
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performed to evaluate environmental impacts and in particular GHG emissions reduction, as the
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European Commission recommends for solid biomass production for electricity generation,
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heating and cooling [27]. Special attention should be paid to the effect of straw exportation in
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GHG emissions due to the possible future decrease of crop fertility and soil carbon stocks
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[14,28].When straw is left into the field a fraction of its carbon content ends up forming humus
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(effective organic matter) and consequently a carbon loss should be accounted when straw is
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removed. Besides, compensation should be given to the loss of fertility due to the positive effect
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of this humus in crop fertility and the nutrients that straw supplies for future crops. There is a
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huge uncertainty regarding these facts among others like wheat straw yields, straw humidity and
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energy content, N2O emissions [29,30], diesel consumption of field works, etc. Uncertainty and
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variability has been discussed as an important aspect to deal with in the field of LCA in general
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[31-33] as well as for the particular case of bioenegy LCAs [7,8,34]. In this study we made a
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systematic consideration of parameter uncertainty and variability of all the parameters affecting
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all the previous aspects, retrieving data from all the references we found that were valid for our
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case. We adjusted statistical distributions for all parameters that have a significant effect in the
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results performing goodness of fit tests to choose the best option among distributions when
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enough data were available. When data were scarce for a parameter we adjusted triangular or
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uniform distributions taking into account the data available and our knowledge of the
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phenomenon being studied. There are several LCAs that evaluate use of wheat straw for
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combined heat and power (CHP) [14-17] but we are not aware of any published LCA including
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parameter uncertainty and variability systematically for all the aspects described previously.
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The objective of this study is to perform an accurate evaluation of the environmental
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sustainability of the use of wheat straw for electricity generation in Spain. To this end, we
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conducted an uncertainty LCA of energy balances and GHG emissions of electricity obtained
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from wheat straw and compared the results with those of electricity obtained from natural gas in
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Spanish power plants. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were implemented to
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incorporate uncertainty and variability affecting to the LCAs produced. GHG savings of
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Spanish straw electricity were calculated and compared with thresholds suggested by the EU as
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sustainability criteria [27]. Shares of the phases considered in the assessment and critical
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parameters affecting results were discussed suggesting possible improvements.
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2 Energy and environmental assessment methodology
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2.1. Goal, scope and evaluation of data sources and tools
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We selected LCA as the environmental assessment tool to determine energetic and
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environmental performance (GHG emissions) of the use of wheat straw to generate electrical
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energy and its comparison with a fossil reference energy system.
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LCA involves a systematic set of procedures for compiling and examining the inputs and
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outputs of materials and energy and the associated environmental impacts directly attributable to
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the functioning of a product or service system throughout its life cycle [35]. This environmental
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management tool is regulated by ISO 14040 [35] and ISO 14044 [36] standards, and according
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to them, LCAs should follow four steps: (1) goal and definition, (2) inventory analysis, (3)
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impact assessment and (4) interpretation.
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The most important data sources used for the modelling of the inventories of bioenergy system
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were: FAOSTAT [26] for wheat yields, ECN Phyllis 2 database [37] for straw energy content,
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BIOBID database [38] for straw nutrient contents, the Spanish platform of agricultural
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machinery for machinery amortization and for diesel and motor oil consumptions of field works
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[39], the IPPC [40] and The RSB Methodology [41] for N2O emissions and real data of a
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Spanish 25 MWe straw power plant for the generation of electricity.
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We used previous data sources to include parameter uncertainty and variability in order to
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provide more accurate results which try to be representative of the different Spanish agricultural
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realities. The generation of electricity from natural gas under Spanish conditions has been
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chosen as the reference system for comparisons to be one of the cleanest fossil energy sources
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for electricity generation [42].
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Simapro 7.3 software tool and Ecoinvent 2.2 [43] European database have been selected to
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conduct the LCAs in this study. For both, the bioenergy system and the natural system
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parameter uncertainty and variability were incorporated in the inventories.
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2.2. Functional unit
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The generation of 1 TJ of electrical energy from Spanish straw burned in a 25 MWe power plant
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have been selected as functional unit for the biomass energy system. The generation of 1 TJe
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from natural gas in Spanish conditions has been chosen for the reference fossil system (see Fig.
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1).
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2.3 Systems description
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The characteristics and burdens of the bioenergy system and the natural gas system are
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described in this section. We chose natural gas Spanish electricity as reference system for
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comparisons because is the cleanest fossil energy source available.
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2.3.1 Bioenergy system
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The bioenergy system is composed of three subsystems: wheat straw production (agricultural
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system), biomass power plant and transport that are going to be explained in detail. The Fig 1.
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summarises the processes included in the bioenergy system.
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Fig. 1 Bioenergy system burdens and phases included in the analysis.
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(1) Wheat straw production subsystem.
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The objective of wheat cultivation is obtaining grain usually for alimentary purposes. Due to
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this fact, wheat straw is considered as a residue and all the inputs and field works needed to
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grow wheat in order to produce grain are not considered. Only differences between the wheat
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cultivation reference system (straw incorporated in the soil) and the studied system (straw
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exported to generate electricity) should be accounted in the LCA of electricity production from
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wheat straw.
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There are some differences in the field works due to straw exportation that should be borne in
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mind. During the harvesting the straw is not chopped because is going to be baled and
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operations of baling and bale loading are needed. The amount of machinery amortized in these
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field works as well as the diesel and motor oil consumption and combustion emissions have
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been accounted (see later Sections 2.4.2 and 2.4.3).
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Other difference is the reduction of N2O emissions due to the lower amount of straw left in the
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field (see later Section 2.4.4). Straw nitrogen content is crucial for the estimation of these
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emissions.
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One more difference is the reduction of crop fertility in future years due to the effect of the loss
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of humus and N, P and K nutrients that straw supplies in the wheat cultivation reference system.
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This loss of fertility of the soil has been compensated in our modelling through crop
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intensification by the use of more fertilizers. Cherubini states that straw fertilizer effect ranges
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from 25% to 75% of its N, P and K straw contents [14], so we consider uniform distributions
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following this figures and log-normal distributions for N, P and K straw contents (see later
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section 2.4.5). The intensification by the use of nitrogen fertilizer produces a raise in N2O
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emissions that have been also accounted (see later Section 2.4.4).
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The last and most remarkable difference is the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) due to straw
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exportation. We consider in our modelling the loss of SOC due to one year of straw exportation
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as follows:
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CO2SOC (kg CO2/ha) = 44/12∙GY SG IHC∙CSOM
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where CO2SOC (kg CO2/ha) are the CO2 emissions due to land use changes in soil organic
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carbon; 44/12 is the factor to convert C in CO2; GY(kg grain/ha) is the wheat grain yield in dry
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basis; SG(kg straw/Kg grain) is the straw / grain ratio for Spanish conditions; IHC(kg OM/kg
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Straw) is the isohumic coefficient and measures the amount of straw that turns into humus
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(effective Organic Matter); CSOM(Kg C/kg OM) is the carbon content of soil organic matter.
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The values that previous parameters take for this study including the uncertainty and variability
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considered for them can be shown in the section 2.4.5.
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(2) Biomass power plant subsystem.
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The biomass power plant is modelled using real data from a 25 MWe Spanish straw power plant
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supplied by power plant officers. This plant is considered representative of other existing
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biomass power plants in Spain.
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The straw power plant consumes small amounts of natural gas in start-up and pre-heating and
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generates ashes and slags as residues of straw burning. Natural gas average consumption and
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ash and slag average generation per kg from straw burned are shown in Table 1. Aerial
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emissions are submitted online to regional authorities and its average values are presented in
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Table 1 as well. The emissions accounted in the assessments are only those which affect the
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global warming potential (GWP). Fossil carbon dioxide emissions of natural gas burning are
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taken into account. The emissions of carbon dioxide from straw combustion have not been
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accounted because CO 2 was previously fixed from the air by the crop no more than one year
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before being burned. Table 1 Biomass power plant consumptions, residues and emissions Items Type Amount Units Natural gas Consumption 0.0389 MJ/Kg Dry Biomass Slags Residue 93.72 g/Kg Dry Biomass Ashes Residue 9.38 g/Kg Dry Biomass Carbon Dioxide 2.16 Emission g/Kg Dry Biomass from natural gas Emission g/Kg Dry Biomass Nitrogen oxides 1.85 Emission g/Kg Dry Biomass Carbon monoxide 1.05 Emission g/Kg Dry Biomass Sulphur dioxide 0.36 Emission g/Kg Dry Biomass Particulates 0.27
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All the factors of uncertainty and variability affecting the power generation subsystem
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parameters are described in section 2.4.5.
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(3) Transport subsystem.
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The main characteristics of transport system are shown in Table 2, the information shown
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includes: materials to transport, origin and destination points, distances, and means of transport
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used.
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Transport distances and transport means of agricultural inputs until regional storehouses are
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considered as in Ecoinvent [44]. We assumed 10 km as a good estimate of the average transport
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distance for agricultural inputs from the storehouse to farmer’s plots. Officers in charge of the
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power plant operation provided average transport distances and transport means for straw bales,
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ashes and slags.
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The biomass transport distance from farmer's plots to biomass power plant is calculated as
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follows:
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SBTD(km) = ((CSYN/100)/(2*л*CLA))0.5
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where SBTD(km) is straw bales transport distance; CSYN(ha) is the crop surface needed to
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achieve the annual electricity production of the biomass plant working 330 days uninterruptedly
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per year and CLA(available ha/total ha) is the crop land available in the region to grow wheat
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and collect the straw for bioenergy purposes. Table 2 Transport system characteristics Material From
To
Manufacturer
Regional storehouse
Regional storehouse
Plot
Distance 600 km 100 km
Fertilizers
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Straw bales Ash and slag
Farmer plot Biomass power plant
Biomass plant Disposal site
10 km 56 km 37 km
Vehicle Train Lorry >16t Tractor and Trailer Lorry 1632t Lorry 1632t
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The output of the whole bioenergy system is the electrical energy generated. This energy output
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is calculated as follow:
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E(MJe/ha)=GY∙SG/(1-H)∙(1-SL)∙NHVCP,H∙η
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where E(MJe/ha) is the electrical energy generated; GY(kg grain/ha) is the wheat grain yield in
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dry basis; SG(kg straw/kg grain) is the ratio between the straw and the grain production; H(kg
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water/kg wet straw) is the water content of wheat straw in a per unit basis; SL(kg loss/kg straw)
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are the losses of straw due to bales storage in the plot in a per unit basis; NHVCP,H(MJ/kg) is the
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net heating value of wheat straw at constant pressure at water content (H): NHVCP,H(MJ/kg) =
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NHVCP,0∙(1- H) - 2,444∙H and η(MJe/MJ straw) is the conversion efficiency of wheat straw into
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electricity in a per unit basis.
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The values that prior parameters take for this assessment are presented in Table 3.
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2.3.2 Natural Gas System
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The natural gas system models the generation of electricity using natural gas in power plants
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under Spanish conditions. The system considers the exportation of natural gas to Spain of main
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exporter countries (Algeria 73% and Norway 27%), including the gas field operations for
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extraction, the losses, the emissions, and the purification. The long distance travel to Spain as
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well as the transportation to Spanish power plants is considered, including energy consumption,
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losses and emissions. Average efficiencies as well as inputs needed and typical emissions of
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Spanish natural gas power plant are taken into account [42]. LCI of the previous system
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considers parameter uncertainty according to Ecoinvent modelling.
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2.4. Life cycle inventory structure
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The inventories used to consider natural gas consumption of the biomass power plant and the
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transportation of agricultural inputs, biomass and power plant residues are taken from Ecoinvent
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v2.2. The methods used for the inventory analysis of the agricultural system mainly follow
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those proposed in the life cycle inventories of agricultural production systems [44]. The
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calculation of N2O emissions is based on the guidelines of the RSB GHG Calculation
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Methodology v 2.1 [41].
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2.4.1 Fertilizers production
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The inventories for fertilizers production include the consumption and transport of raw
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materials and intermediate products as well as the energy consumption and the emissions
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generated in the production processes [44].
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2.4.2 Diesel and motor oil consumption and combustion emissions of agricultural
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machinery
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The diesel and motor oil consumption of agricultural machinery are obtained from the Spanish
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platform for the knowledge of agricultural machinery [39]. We considered the difference in field
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works between incorporating the straw into the soil and exporting it. This implies subtracting
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the consumption of chopping straw and accounting the consumptions for baling and bale
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loading. The platform provides for each fieldwork, lifetime of tractor or harvester and
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implements used, power of the tractor or harvester, operation time and diesel and motor oil
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consumption per hectare. Changing the conditions in operations performed from best to worst
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(more consuming) possible ones is how we establish the range for diesel and oil consumption
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factor (DOCF) shown in Table 3. Diesel and oil consumption depend on biomass productivity
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and this is taken into account apart from the DOCF. According to the Spanish platform [39] the
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consumption of motor oil for tractors is 1 % of the diesel consumption.
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The inventories for the extraction, the transportation of crude oil, its transformation into diesel,
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and its distribution are taken from Ecoinvent [45]. Exhaust emissions from agricultural
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machinery engines are also taken into account [46].
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2.4.3 Agricultural machinery manufacture
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The inventories for agricultural machinery manufacture are specific to the different types of
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machinery (tractors, harvesters, tillage implements or other implements).
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The amount of machinery (AM) consumed for caring out a specific agricultural operation was
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calculated by multiplying the weight (W) of the machinery by the operation time (OT) and
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dividing the result by the lifetime of the machinery (LT) [44]:
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AM (kg/FU) = W(kg)OT∙(h/FU)/LT(h)
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where FU (see former Section 2.2) is the functional unit of the LCA. The operation time, the
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lifetime and the weights of the machinery considered for all operations are obtained from the
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Spanish platform for the knowledge of agricultural machinery [39].
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2.4.4 Field and fertilizers derived emissions (Nitrous oxide emissions)
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There is debate regarding methodologies [40,41,44] and factors that should be used for the
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estimation of N2O emissions. This debate has been raised in several bioenegy life cycle
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assessments and reviews [47-49] given that its importance is critical when assessing GWP
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reductions [50]. To provide a good estimation of N2O emissions we follow the RSB GHG
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Calculation Methodology v 2.1 [41] given that it reflects the present state of research and it is
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based on methods which provide detail and consistency. Nitrate leaching emissions affecting to
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N2O emissions have not been included because its estimation is based on the interrelation
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several local parameters and is difficult to obtain meaningful estimates for Spain as a whole.
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The calculation of the N2O emissions proposed by the RSB [41] is based on the formula in
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Nemecek et Kägi [44] and adopts the IPCC guidelines [40]:
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N2O(KgN2O/ha) = 44/28∙(EF1∙(Ntot+Ncr)+EF4∙14/17∙NH3)
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where N2O(kg N2O/ha) are emissions of N2O; 44/28 is the conversion factor of N-N2O in N2O;
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EF1(Kg N-N2O/kg N inputs) is the factor that gives the fraction of N inputs that is converted
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into N2O (see Table 3); Ntot(kg N/ha) is the total nitrogen input from fertilizers; Ncr is the
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nitrogen contained in the crop residues (kg N/ha);EF4 is the factor that gives the fraction of N-
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NH3 that is converted in N-N2O (Kg N-N2O/kg N-NH3) (see Table 3); 14/17 is conversion
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factor of NH3 in N-NH3; NH3 are the losses of nitrogen in the form of ammonia (kg NH3/ha)
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calculated as proposed in the RSB [41] and Nemecek et Kägi [44] methodologies.
304 305 306
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2.4.5 Parameter uncertainty and variability
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Results obtained from LCA can have high uncertainties due to the considerable amounts of
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measured and simulated data and the simplification of models that try to represent complex
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environmental cause-effect chains [51]. There all several examples of quantitative uncertainty
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assessments in LCA that deal with this problem [32] and more are appearing overt time.
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However, the incorporation of uncertainty through the use of a stochastic modeling with Monte
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Carlo Simulation is not yet a common practice for recent LCA studies, despite of the
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recommendations that were made years ago [52].
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We systematically included parameter uncertainty and variability for all the inventories that
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have a significant importance for the results and then we performed Monte Carlo simulations.
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When enough data was available a distribution was fitted to the parameter sample following a
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scientific procedure. In order to fit the best possible distribution goodness of fit tests were
319
performed in combination with graphical tests as quantile-quantile plot. When the amount of
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data was not enough to adjust a distribution following previous procedure, simpler distributions
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(uniform or triangular) were chosen. We chose between triangular and uniform distributions and
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adjusted them taking into account the values retrieved from the references we found and authors
323
knowledge of the phenomenon being studied (see Table 3). Percentiles of 5 % (P05) and 95 %
324
(P95) were calculated for each distribution in order to perform a sensitivity analysis to
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determine the most influencing parameters (See Fig 5 and Fig 9). The ideal situation when
326
dealing with uncertainty and variability [31] is to separate their effects for each parameter and
327
perform a tiered Monte Carlo simulation [53]. However, is not possible separate the effects of
328
uncertainty and variability for all the parameters defined in this study, due to this fact and for
329
consistency reasons, the distributions shown in Table 3 consider the effects of uncertainty and
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variability together.
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332 333
Table 3 Uncertainty and variability of LCI parameters Parameter Units Distribution1 Wheat grain GY yield SG Straw/grain Straw storage SL losses Straw NHV NHVCP,0 0% Humidity Straw SH humidity Power plant PE efficiency Isohumic IHC coefficient Soil carbon CSOM factor Straw exportation SFC fertility compensation
334 335 336 337
P052
P953
Data Sources and Explanations
Last 15 years wheat yields available for Spain. 11 % Humidity 1633 3516 of grains was subtracted from data 0.91 1.09 Adapted to Spanish typical yields and cutting heights 2 % can fit well for Spanish dry weather. 0.011 0.029 A ± 50 % variation was considered appropriate.
kg/ha
LN (2462,582)
kg/kg kg lost/ kg stored
U (0.9, 1.1)
MJ/kg
LN (16.94, 0.99)
15.4
18.6 37 wheat straw samples from ECN Phyllis 2 database
% wb
T (12, 10, 16)
10.8
14.9 Based on officers from a Spanish 25 MW biomass power plant
T (0.30, 0.29, 0.31)
0.293 0.307 Based on officers from a Spanish 25 MW biomass power plant
T (0.10,0.08, 0.15)
0.088 0.137
MJe/ MJ straw kg SOM/ kg straw kg SOC/ kg SOM kg Fertilizer/ Nutrient Content
U (0.01, 0.03)
U (0.50, 0.56)
U (0.25, 0.75)
Refs [26] [54] [55] [37]
Appropriate for Spain when straw is buried without nitrogen [56-59] fertilizers application. Usually 0.58 value is used for this factor but this value is more 0.503 0.557 [60] a maximum than an average. 0.275 0.725 Based on Cherubini LCAs.
[14]
18, 18 and 20 samples were used from BIOBID database. LN (0.568, 0.180) 0.0326 0.901 kg Nutrient/ Negative values of distributions were converted to cero. T(0.188, -0.027, 0.221) 0.0247 0.201 kg Straw Straw K and P contents were transformed to K2O and P2O5 as T (1.63, -0.23, 1.63) 0.186 1.583 fertilizers doses are given this way.
[38]
IPCC Factors for N2O emissions. For both factors triangular 0.0061 0.0248 distributions with the typical values as modes and extreme 0.0064 0.0402 values of IPCC interval as maximum and minimum were used.
[40]
SN SK SP
Straw N Straw P2O5 Straw K2O
EF1 EF4
IPCC Factor 1 Kg N-N2O/ T (0.01, 0.003, 0.03) IPCC Factor 4 kg N inputs T (0.01, 0.002, 0.05)
Diesel & Oil Good estimate for consumption variation when conditions for DOCF Consumption U (0.75, 1.25) 0.775 1.225 and specific operation change. Factor Crop Land ha available/ Own estimation based on average biomass transport distance CLA T(0.03, 0.015, 0.045) 1.97 4.03 availability ha total provided by power plant owners. Natural Gas A ± 50 % variation from data provided by 25 MW power plant NGF U(0.5, 1.5) 0.55 1.45 Factor owners was considered appropriate. Ash & Slag A ± 25 % variation from data provided by 25 MW power plant ASPF U(0.75, 1.25) 0.775 1.225 production owners was considered appropriate. Ash & Slag A ± 25 % variation from data provided by 25 MW power plant ASTF U(0.75, 1.25) 0.775 1.225 transport owners was considered appropriate. Power plant A ± 25 % variation from data provided by 25 MW power plant PPEF U(0.75, 1.25) 0.775 1.225 emissions owners was considered appropriate. 1 LN: Log-Normal(average, standard deviation) U: Uniform(minimum, maximum) T: Triangular(mode, minimum, maximum). 2 Percentile of 5 % 3 Percentile of 95%
338
2.5. Life cycle impact assessment
339
In the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) phase of an LCA the inputs and outputs of
340
elementary flows that have been collected and reported in the inventory are translated into
341
impact indicator results [61]. LCIA includes mandatory and optional steps. We carried out
342
mandatory steps of classification and characterization and avoided optional steps of
343
normalization and weighting optional steps.
344 345
2.5.1. Environmental impact assessment method
346
The impact assessment method chosen to evaluate the GWP is the IPCC 2007 100 years’ time
347
horizon [62]. The method calculates the cumulative radiative forcing caused by a unit mass
348
emission of a GHG, integrated over a 100 year time horizon, as compared with the cumulative
[39]
349
radiative forcing due to emission of a unit mass of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the same time
350
horizon.
351 352
2.5.2. Energy assessment method
353
Cumulative Energy Requirement Analysis (CERA) [63] was the method chosen to assess the
354
energy consumed to generate electricity from wheat straw biomass and from natural gas. This
355
method aims to calculate the energy use throughout the life cycle of a good or service.
356 357
3 Results
358 359
3.1 Global Warming Potential
360
In the Fig. 2 can be shown the probability distribution of the GWP generated in the production
361
of 1 TJe from wheat straw. The results were within the confidence interval that goes from 41 to
362
70 Mg COeq/TJe with a 5 % significance level. The mean value obtained was 55 Mg COeq/TJe,
363
this is a 62 % less than the 143 Mg COeq/TJe obtained when Spanish natural gas electricity was
364
simulated. When 1 TJe of natural gas electricity was compared with the same amount of
365
electricity coming from wheat straw, in 100 % of the simulations the GWP generated by natural
366
gas was higher.
367
368 369 370 371
Fig. 2. Probability distribution of GWP incurred in the generation of 1TJ of electricity from wheat straw in Spain. Monte Carlo simulation needed 811number of runs to obtain as standard error of the mean lower than 0.5 % of the average.
372
The European Commission recommends following the same sustainability criteria for solid and
373
gaseous biofuels [27] as the binding criteria established by the RED [64] for liquid biofuels.
374
Due to this fact, we have assumed that sustainable electricity production from wheat straw
375
should have at least 60% of GHG savings compared to the reference, as this is the amount
376
required by the RED for liquid biofuels after 2017. Fig. 3 shows in positive (green) the
377
exceeding GWP reduction of the simulations that accomplished the 60 % of GHG savings
378
criteria and in negative (red) the missing GWP to accomplish the same criteria. The results were
379
between -16 and 18 Mg COeq/TJe with a 5 % significance level. The generation of electricity
380
by straw burning under Spanish conditions accomplished the EU biomass sustainability criteria
381
for 58% of the 17205 simulations done. According to these results, production of electricity
382
from Spanish wheat straw was sustainable in the majority of cases but it should be borne in
383
mind that there is a probability of 38 % of being outside the EU sustainability zone.
384
385 386 387 388 389
Fig. 3. Probability distribution of the GWP of the simulations that saved more (in green) and less (in red) than the 60 % GHG saving threshold in the comparisons of wheat straw electricity and natural gas electricity under Spanish conditions. Monte Carlo simulation needed 17205 runs to obtaining a standard error of the mean lower than 0.5% of the average value of the simulations.
390
The GPW shares of the different phases of the production of straw electricity are shown in Fig.
391
4. The loss of soil organic carbon was the most contributing phase with 39.8 Mg CO2 eq./TJe
392
electricity followed by the compensation of fertility decrease with 9.0 Mg CO2 eq./TJe
393
electricity. The avoided N2O emissions due the lower amount of crop residues that remain into
394
the field had a remarkable negative contribution of 5.5 Mg CO2 eq./TJe. The phases of biomass
395
transport and the power plant operation had limited impact compared to others.
396
397 398 399
Fig. 4. GPW shares of Spanish wheat straw electricity for average values.
400
The sensitivity analysis of the most influencing parameters for the GWP and the phases of the
401
analysis that they are affecting can be shown in Fig. 5. It can be observed that for parameters
402
which are modelled with non- symmetric distributions (see Table 4) the upper (P95) and the
403
lower (P05) percentiles influences had remarkable differences between them. This is the case of
404
isohumic coefficient, net heating value, grain yield and IPCC factor 1. Isohumic coefficient was
405
the most sensitive parameter especially for the 95% percentile. The net heating value and the
406
fertility compensation factor also had big influences in the sensitivity analysis with a P05-P95
407
range that is more than 10 % the GWP of the average case.
408 409 410 411
Fig. 5. Sensitivity analysis of parameters which P05-P95 percentile ranges are more than 5 % of the average straw electricity GWP. The phases which parameters contribute to are shown in colored squares.
412
3.2 Cumulative Energy
413
The Fig. 6 shows in red the percentage of the simulations in which electricity from wheat straw
414
consumed more energy than electricity from natural gas for each type of energy source, the
415
opposite situation is presented in green. Total primary energy was higher for straw electricity in
416
more than 95 % of the simulations because the biomass energy content of the straw has been
417
included in the calculations. Nevertheless, non renewable fossil energy consumption was always
418
higher for natural gas electricity, being also the most consumed of the three non-renewable
419
sources of energy evaluated.
420 421 422 423
Fig. 6. Uncertainty analysis of the different sources of primary energy consumed in the generation of 1 TJ of electricity natural gas electricity minus 1 TJ of electricity from wheat straw.
424
The probability distribution of the fossil energy consumed to produce 1 TJ of electricity from
425
wheat straw is show in Fig. 7. The fossil energy consumption was studied separately due to the
426
non renewable and scarceness characteristics of fossil fuels. The fossil energy consumption for
427
straw electricity was within the confident interval that goes from 0.13 to 0.26 TJ fossil/TJ
428
electricity with a 5 % significance level. The mean value obtained was 0.18 TJ fossil/TJ
429
electricity, this is more than ten times less than the 2.44 TJ fossil/TJ electricity obtained for
430
natural gas electricity. The mean value of fossil energy consumption obtained for straw
431
electricity implies that the production of electrical energy was more than five times higher than
432
the fossil energy consumed for its generation.
433
434 435 436 437
Fig. 7. Probability distribution of fossil energy consumed in the generation of 1TJ of electricity from wheat straw in Spain. Monte Carlo simulation needed 1304 number of runs to obtain as standard error of the mean lower than 0.005.
438
The Fig. 8 shows the fossil energy shares of the production of straw electricity. The most fossil
439
energy consuming phase was the extra field works needed to export straw bales with 49 % of
440
the total. The fertilizers intensification to compensate fertility loss was the second phase in order
441
importance with 27% of the total. Bales transport and biomass plant operation accounted
442
together for 24 % of total fossil energy consumed.
443
444 445 446
Fig. 8. Fossil energy shares of Spanish wheat straw electricity for average values.
447
The sensitivity analysis of the most influencing parameters for the fossil energy consumption
448
and the phases that they are affecting can be shown in Fig. 9. The fertility compensation factor
449
was one of the most sensitive parameters for fossil energy, raising or lowering its consumption
450
in more than 12 % for both the 95 % and the 5 % percentile. The wheat grain yield was the
451
second parameter in order of influence, when it took the value of the 5 % percentile fossil
452
energy consumption raised more than 18 %. Diesel consumption factor and net heating value
453
had similar importance in this sensitivity analysis producing variations of around 10 % for 5%
454
and 95 % percentiles values with respect to average figures.
455
456 457 458 459
Fig. 9. Sensitivity analysis of parameters which P05-P95 percentile ranges are more than 5 % of the average straw electricity fossil energy demand. The phases which parameters contribute to are shown in colored squares.
460
4. Discussion
461 462
The average results presented in this article for the GWP assessment of wheat straw electricity
463
(55 Mg CO2 eq/TJe ) were very similar to previously published results for winter cereals grown
464
as dedicated energy crop for electricity generation in the Spanish province of Soria (52 Mg CO2
465
eq/TJe) [4] and slightly higher than the ones obtained for Brassica Carinata (47 Mg CO2
466
eq/TJe) cultivated also in Spain [65]. Upon comparing these values it should be borne in mind
467
that the methodologies used and the burdens of these studies have some differences between
468
them. The accounting of the loss of soil organic carbon due to wheat straw exportation is the
469
main reason for obtaining a higher GWP value for the LCA of a crop residue than for the LCAs
470
of previously mentioned dedicated energy crops.
471
Loss of soil organic carbon is the main driver of GWP in the production of electricity from
472
straw and its value is crucial to know if more than 60 % of GHG savings can be obtained when
473
comparing straw electricity with natural gas electricity in Spain. The isohumic coefficient and
474
the soil carbon factor are the parameters which influence the most this carbon loss. They depend
475
on local factors as crop residue and soil characteristics, rainfall, temperature, etc., and can be
476
estimated more precisely for a specific plot of terrain. Due to this fact, we recommend using
477
local parameters if available or develop local experiments to guess about them since the
478
accomplishment of EU sustainability criteria is highly dependent of these factors according to
479
our modelling. This is in line with the recommendations of recent studies [51,66] that
480
emphasized the importance of local aspects and case-specific conditions in LCAs results.
481
The selection wheat varieties more adapted to bioenergy with higher neat heating value and
482
lower straw nitrogen content can provide better results especially for fossil energy consumption.
483
In the selection of these varieties it should be borne in mind that the main objective of growing
484
wheat is grain production so varieties selection for bioenergy should respect grain quality and
485
productivity. Provided that the nitrogen content is a requirement for grains to achieve good
486
quality and high productivity, harvesting in the optimal moment when all nitrogen has migrated
487
to grains can be as well a good strategy that will help to minimize nitrogen content in straw.
488
Higher nitrogen content in straw is negative for fossil energy consumption because more
489
inorganic fertilizer will be used to compensate the loss of fertility due to straw exportation.
490
Nevertheless, higher nitrogen content in straw has opposing effects for GWP. The higher
491
nitrogen content in straw the more nitrous oxide is avoided due to lower emissions of crop
492
residues that are not left into the field any more. However, more inorganic nitrogen fertilisers
493
are needed to compensate fertility loss because of straw exportation and also more nitrous oxide
494
is emitted due to the application of these fertilizers. Doing further research to reduce the
495
uncertainty of the fertility compensation factor could help to provide more precise results.
496
Although many companies are not very willing to share information about their production
497
processes, LCA practitioners should try to obtaining country specific recent data on fertilizer
498
production systems [7]. This usually provides more precise inventories and results in lower
499
impacts due to the effect of more efficient production processes and new technologies that
500
capture GHGs. The probability of having high humidity in bales in Spain is not as high as in
501
other countries with higher precipitations in summer but using tarped cover storage could also
502
minimize storage losses and reduce straw humidity in case of rain [67].
503
Field works optimization is other important task to be performed to minimise GWP and energy
504
consumption. Proper sizing and maintenance of the tractor as well as performing field works at
505
the optimal velocity could help to reduce diesel consumption and therefore reduce GWP and
506
fossil energy consumption.
507
More efficient power plants will reduce impacts on GWP and fossil energy consumption.
508
However, a trade of exists since more efficient plants are usually bigger and they require more
509
biomass that is transported from further locations. A possible solution to minimise this raise of
510
the biomass transport distance could be to choose the best possible location for the plant and
511
stimulate more the local farmers stablished near the power plant to grow wheat sell their bales to
512
this industry.
513 514
4 Conclusions
515 516
The systematic inclusion of parameter uncertainty and variability for most influencing
517
parameters of the LCAs of bioenergy systems is an important task to be performed in the search
518
of more accurate results that help decision makers to give more supported answers to bioenergy
519
sustainability criteria accomplishment.
520
The production of electricity from wheat straw in Spain resulted in lower GHG emissions than
521
Spanish natural gas electricity for 100% of the simulations. However, only 58 % of the
522
simulation accomplished EU sustainability criteria of 60% GHG savings when compared with
523
natural gas electricity. This result implies that although production of electricity from straw is
524
sustainable for the majority of the cases, there is also a big probability of not accomplishing the
525
EU threshold, in which case most influencing phases should be analyzed searching ways to
526
minimize impacts.
527
The optimization of field works performed for straw exportation in combination with the
528
reduction of storage losses and bale humidity could slightly increase the GHG savings and
529
reduce the fossil energy consumption. The selection of wheat varieties with higher straw net
530
heating value could also be an improvement. However, as the sensitivity points out, the
531
parameters that affect the calculation of the soil organic carbon losses due to straw exportation
532
are the most influencing for GWP assessment and therefore they are crucial to clarify if the EU
533
sustainability criteria of 60 % GHG savings is accomplished for Spanish straw electricity. Due
534
to this fact, we understand that local and case specific estimation of soil carbon factor and
535
especially isohumic coefficient are unavoidable tasks to reduce the uncertainty and provide a
536
definitive answer to the accomplishment of EU sustainability criteria of a crop residue harvested
537
in a specific location.
538 539
Acknowledgements
540
The authors thank to Dr. Francisco Nieto for sharing his agricultural knowledge with us. We are
541
also grateful to Dr. Edgar Hertwich at the Industrial Ecology department of the Norwegian
542
University of Science and Technology for contributing with helpful comments on the drafts of
543
this manuscript.
544 545 546
547 548
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