impact on agricultural land resources of biofuels ... - CiteSeerX

Bioenergy: Challenges and Opportunities International Conference and Exhibition on Bioenergy April 6th – 9th 2008 Universidade do Minho, Guimarães, Portugal

IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND RESOURCES OF BIOFUELS PRODUCTION AND USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION N. Scarlat1, J. F. Dallemand2 and F. Gallego Pinilla3 1 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Renewable Energies Unit, Via E. Fermi 2749, TP 450, 21027 Ispra (Va), Italy, E-mail: [email protected] 2 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Renewable Energies Unit, Via E. Fermi 2749, TP 450, 21027 Ispra (Va), Italy, E-mail: [email protected] 3 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Agriculture Unit, Via Fermi 2749 TP 480 21027 Ispra (Va), Italy, E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT Biofuels should reach 5.75% share in overall EU fuel consumption for transport by 2010, according to the Biofuels Directive 2003/30/EC. A 10% binding minimum target was proposed and included in the new RES Directive proposed in January 2008 to be achieved by all Member States by 2020. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the biofuels production and corresponding land requirements for EU 27 countries for reaching the 2020 target, based on an estimated demand for biodiesel and bioethanol for the EU27. Several scenarios were proposed, based on the assumption that part of the biofuels use will be domestically produced while another part will be imported and on a possible contribution of second generation biofuels up to a maximum of 30%. The assessment of the land requirements for producing biofuels were based on the present practices for agricultural production, current yield and the assumptions for a moderate yield increase of crop production in different countries and also on the technology performances for different feedstock. The analysis concludes with a discussion of the impact of biofuels on agricultural land use in the EU-27 based on the proposed scenarios. Keywords: biofuels, impact, agricultural land requirement. INTRODUCTION Biofuels should reach the target of 5.75% share of biofuels in overall fuel consumption for transport by 2010, according to the Biofuels Directive 2003/30/EC [1] of the European Parliament and of the Council of 2003. The European Commission (EC) proposed a Road Map (COM(2006)848) [2] that includes a binding overall EU 20% RES target by 2020 and a 10% minimum binding target for biofuels for each EU Member State (MS). According to the Road Map (COM(2006)848), EU MS must set national targets and adopt National Action Plans for renewables for electricity, heating and cooling and biofuels. National Biomass Action Plans (nBAP) would be part of the National RES Action Plans. The EU Biomass Action Plan (COM(2005)628) [3] encourages MS to establish nBAPs, which should include availability of biomass (wood and wood residues, wastes and agricultural crops and residues…) and the priorities for the use of biomass in each MS. National BAPs should also propose measures to be taken until 2020 to develop and mobilise biomass resources, including consideration of imports of biomass vs. domestic supply and implications of the proposed measures on land use. The 10% binding minimum target was endorsed by the European Council in spring 2007 and included in the RES Directive proposed in January 2008 by the EC to be achieved by all EU MS by 2020. The mandatory targets, compared to indicative ones, will increase the commitment and efforts of MS to reach the targets (SEC(2006) 1719). The 10% mandatory share of biofuels in total fuel consumption in the transport sector of 10% for all MS by 2020 is likely to have a strong impact on the cereals, oilseeds and sugar beet demand for biofuel production. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate and discuss the impact of the biofuels feedstock production and corresponding land requirements for reaching the 2010 and 2020 targets at the MS and EU 27 level.

AVAILABLE POTENTIAL FOR BIOENERGY AND BIOFUELS IN EU The 20% RES target and the 10% biofuels target are likely to have a strong impact on economy, environment and land use. Several studies aimed to quantify the global quantitative and qualitative

impacts for bioenergy and biofuels production and proposed forecasts for the available potential. Biomass and biofuel imports from outside the EU have been taken into consideration since recent studies identified insufficient available resources in the EU to meet the targets. The Commission staff working document (SEC(2006)1721) [3] accompanying the Biofuels Progress Report (COM(2006)845) [5] showed two scenarios in order to assess the economic, environmental and land use impact of biofuels production, for 7% or 14% possible shares of biofuel consumption in EU25 in 2020. It included a mix of domestic crops for biofuels, imported and second generation biofuels that makes these shares possible, based on the ESIM Model for agricultural commodity projections and policy simulations. Both scenarios assume the availability of second generation biofuels ranging from 20% in the 7% scenario to 37% in the 14% scenario. The land requirements amount 7.6 million hectares (Mha) (for both the "7%" and "14%-more imports" scenarios. In case of "7%" scenario, 27% of biofuels would be imported and 20% second generation, while in the "14% -more imports" scenario, 54% of biofuels would be imported and 17% second generation. In case of "14%-more domestic" scenario, the land requirements would reach 18.3 Mha, 22% from imports and 35% from second generation biofuels. The EEA study [6, 7] aimed to assess how much (agricultural) biomass could be potentially available for energy production in EU up to 2030, without "harming the environment". The EEA study assumed that 30% of agricultural land would be environmentally-oriented farming, maintaining extensively cultivated agricultural areas and 3% of the agricultural land to be set-aside. EEA assessment [6] was based on the CAPSIM model for prediction of agricultural activity, complemented by environmental criteria to determine how much land will be needed for food and fodder production and how much land can be made available for bioenergy. The bioenergy potential assessment also took into account the competition effect between bioenergy and food production with the HEKTOR model to determine the amount of land needed to produce food and fodder to fulfil domestic demands. The environmentally-compatible bioenergy potential from agriculture was estimated at 47 Mtoe in 2010, 96 Mtoe in 2020 and 142 Mtoe by 2030 [6, 7]. Additional bioenergy potential determined comes from agriculture, forestry and wastes. The area available for bioenergy was assumed to include the land released from food and fodder production and set-aside areas. The available arable land which can be used for bioenergy production was estimated at 13 Mha in 2010 and 19.3 Mha in 2030. Additional grassland was estimated at 1.7 Mha in 2010 and 5.9 Mio ha in 2030 to become available [3]. EEA concluded in 2006 that agriculture can contribute to meet renewable energy targets in the EU in environmentally friendly conditions. AEBIOM [8] estimated a biomass potential of 220 Mtoe in 2020 for EU 27; coming mainly from agriculture, forestry and waste. Additional biomass could also be available from agricultural residues and by-products and a better mobilization of woody biomass. It was also estimated that a 20 to 40 Mha can be used for energy production without harming the European food supply. The available land was supposed to come from 1) land release due to the increase of yields, 2) setaside land, 3) diversion of agricultural crops from export. The JEC Well to Wheel study [9] provided an estimate how much bio-ethanol and bio-diesel could possibly be produced from EU domestic sources in 2012. In the proposed scenario, the bioethanol production would come from the cereal production surplus and sugar beet surplus. This scenario assumes no change in oilseeds import. The land for biodiesel production would come from setaside land, land released from sugar reform and yield increase, and from sugar beet surplus. In this scenario, about 12.2 Mtoe biofuels can be produced in 2012 (5.5 Mtoe bioethanol and 7.2 Mtoe biodiesel), representing 4.2% of gasoline and biodiesel consumption in transport. In the case of a 5.75% biodiesel and bioethanol share, the extra crops required would replace 27% of estimated EU25 cereals production in 2012, or about 22% of total arable area (not including set-aside) or 19% of arable capacity including set-aside land. An alternative scenario includes second generation biofuels produced from short rotation forestry, straw and wood waste. The amount of wood which can be used for biofuels was approximated on the basis of the land which can be made available from the estimated cereal surplus for 2012. The land which would produce 47 Mt cereals can be used to produce 84 Mt wood instead. About 21.8-32 Mtoe biofuels could be produced in different scenarios based on the second generation biofuels. GREEN-X Model [10] looked into various scenarios to predict the deployment of bioenergy until 2030, according to certain criteria and energy output, cost and GHG emissions. The analysis was conducted taking into account the alternative use of biomass for electricity or heat production or in transportation as biofuels, on the basis of least-cost approach and prioritization of different use of

biomass as well (such as least cost in terms of avoided GHG or air pollutant emissions instead of avoided primary energy). Some scenarios included a target of 10% biofuels by 2020, considering or not biofuel imports. The use of biomass resources in the EU [10] can lead to a contribution of up to 18.8% to gross electricity demand, up to 23.1% to gross heat demand and up to 15.6% in transport fuel demand, depending on the prioritisation of biomass use. In a least cost approach, allocation of the biomass resources can reach up to 12.5% for electricity, 18.1% for heat and 5.4% for transport (about 7% of the demand for road transport fuels). The Green-X results indicated that the fulfilment of the biofuels target in 2020 is feasible even under the environmental conditions. The Green-X results showed that even more than 10% of the demand for gasoline and diesel can be achieved by 2020 under least cost approach. In case of intra European trade, 8.5% biofuels may be produced in the EU in 2020 in case of no imports.

DESCRIPTION OF APPROACH Of a large importance for the bioenergy are the availability of biomass, the impacts on agricultural market due to the competition for land as well as environmental impacts of increased biomass production for energy and fuels and related GHG emissions. The Commission is in favour of a balanced approach to biofuel trade, as presented in the Biomass Action Plan (COM(2005)628) [3] and the Biofuels Strategy (COM (2006) 34) [11], assuming that the biofuels demand in EU 27 will come from the domestic production and import as well as from second generation biofuels. This paper looks into the impact of the domestic production of biofuels on the EU27 crop and land use requirements in order to assess the most likely scenario for biofuels production. However, this paper did not aim to look into the impact of the imported biofuels in different forms on the international market, or price impacts on agricultural products. The assessment of how much biofuels can be produced in EU27 countries was based on the current production of agricultural crops that would be used for biofuels production, present and forecasted farming practices and efficiencies and proposed a different split of biofuels production between MS. Due to different potential for agricultural crop production and also taking into account the future production of second generation of biofuels from Short Rotation Crops, wood residues or agricultural residues, it was assumed that the trade within the 27 EU MS will cover the biofuels demand, which will be complemented by international import from outside European Union. In this assessment, part of the biofuels used will be domestically produced while another part will be imported and on a possible contribution of second-generation biofuels up to a maximum of 30%. It was also assumed that first generation bioethanol will be produced from a crop mix of wheat, maize, sugar beet, while first generation biodiesel will be produced from a crop mix of rapeseed, sunflower or soybean, following the present practices. Methodology In order to quantify the impact of the 10% target for biofuels and assess the land requirements and cereals and oilseeds necessary to reach the 10% mandatory target for 2020 in EU and MS, several scenarios were formulated. All scenarios aimed to assess the impact of 10% biofuels share at the level of MS in EU27. The assessment was based on the present and forecasted availability of resources and the planned evolution of biofuels production technologies. The present pattern of agricultural production was the basis for the estimation of how much biofuels each MS can produce. It was assumed that the future demand of biofuels will require a balanced production of biofuels in different countries according to their land potential, agricultural crop production, crop yields and climate conditions. Since MS would be able to produce different amounts of biofuels compared to their 10% requirements, the difference in demand will be covered from trade with other EU countries, while biofuel import from abroad up to a share of 15% and 30% would contribute to fulfil the overall EU targets. The biomass feedstock required for biofuels was afterward translated into land that will be necessary to produce the required crops for biofuels. Agricultural crop production and land use in terms of availability for biofuels production were included in the assessment of potential biofuels production of biofuels in each MS. Scenarios presentation The study was based on the assumption of a 10% share of biofuel in transport fuel use in all MS that will be fulfilled from domestic production, import of cereals and oilseeds or by import of biofuels

in the form of bioethanol, vegetable oil or biodiesel. The analysis was performed following the DG TREN Baseline scenario [12] that includes existing trends and policies in place and assuming the present agricultural policies throughout the whole period until 2020 [13]. The study was conducted to look into the possibilities to reach the 2010 and 2020 biofuels targets to cover all 27 EU countries, proposing nine possible scenario. All scenarios assume that the mandatory minimum share of biofuels in total fuel consumption in the transport sector of 10% per MS by 2020 will be met. The study assumed a contribution to the target of biofuels from import as well as the availability of second generation biofuels (lignocellulosic ethanol and BTL). The presentation of proposed scenarios is shown in Table 1. In this study, the possibility of importing biofuels from abroad was included in several scenarios, where the import will cover a share of 0%, 15% and 30%, respectively. If new conversion technologies will be commercially available in future, there might be a shift from first-generation biofuels (vegetable oil, ethanol from cereals or sugar beet) to secondgeneration biofuel production (BTL and lignocellulosic ethanol). The second-generation biofuels would use biomass feedstocks (such as perennial grasses and short rotation forestry), which could have high yields per hectare, and would affect the land uses in a lesser extent [7]. Table 1. Overview of scenarios (in all scenarios: 10% biofuels, 55% biodiesel, 45% bioethanol) Scenario Definition of main parameters s1 all domestic, first generation only s2 all domestic, 15% second generation s3 all domestic, 30% second generation s4 15 % import, first generation only s5 15 % import, 15% second generation s6 15 % import, 30% second generation s7 30 % import, first generation only s8 30 % import, 15% second generation s9 30 % import, 30% second generation In order to illustrate the impact of second generation biofuel production, the study assumed a possible contribution of second generation biofuels of 0%, 15 % and 30% of the biofuels necessary to reach the proposed 10% targets in 2020. However, in practice, this share could be much more modest, depending on the availability of second generation technologies to industrial scale, costs and technology improvements and oil prices. Furthermore, there are opinions that second generation technologies will not become commercially available until 2020 [14]. Main data The assessment of the demand for biodiesel and bioethanol for the EU-27 is based on the current diesel share and the projections of EC DG TREN's PRIMES model for 2020 [12]. The energy projections of DG TREN's PRIMES model indicates a demand of 34.6 Mtoe of biofuel in 2020 according to the 10% binding target. It was assumed also that 55% of the consumption of transport fuel in 2020 would be diesel, considering the present share of diesel and petrol in total transport fuel use in European Union. It was also assumed that ethanol and biodiesel will have each 10% share in petrol and 10% share in diesel consumption, respectively. The assessment of the land requirements for producing biofuels were based on the present practices for agricultural production taking into account present production and current yield. The assessment used data on land use, crop acreage and crop yield averaged over 2001-2006 for each country for cereals (wheat, maize, barley) and oilseeds crop (rapeseed, sunflower, soybean) in order to eliminate the yearly variations. A moderate yield increase per country and crop was assumed, as indicated in [15]. Cereal yield growth was assumed to be about 0.7% in EU 27, with a 1.2% increase per year in New Member States (NMS) and 0.5% increase in EU15. Sugar beet yield increase was assumed to be almost 0.5% in EU27, with a 1.0% increase per year in NMS and 0,5% increase in EU15. For oilseeds yield growth was assumed to be about 1.4% in EU 27, with a 1.0% increase for rapeseed and 2.0% increase for sunflower and soybean. The main data used in the calculations for the processing of cereals, sugar beet, oilseeds and other feedstock to biofuels are presented in Tables 2-4.

Table 2. Main data for biofuels production in EU 27 under different scenarios in EU27 [16]. s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7 s8 s9 Oil consumption [Mtoe] 345.3 345.3 345.3 345.3 345.3 345.3 345.3 345.3 345.3 Bioethanol required [Mtoe] 15.5 15.5 15.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 10.9 10.9 10.9 Biodiesel required [Mtoe] 19.0 19.0 19.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 13.3 13.3 13.3 Biofuels production [Mtoe] 34.5 34.5 34.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 24.1 24.1 24.1 Tot cereal production [Mt] 319.4 319.4 319.4 319.4 319.4 319.4 319.4 319.4 319.4 Cereal for biofuels [Mt] 80.4 67.5 54.6 67.5 54.6 41.8 54.6 41.8 28.9 Tot oilseed production [Mt] 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 Oilseeds for biofuels [Mt] 56.6 48.1 39.6 48.1 39.6 31.1 39.6 31.1 22.6 Total arable land [Mha] 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 Total land cereals [Mha] 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 Total land oilseeds [Mha] 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 Land for biofuels [Mha] 30.6 28.9 27.1 26.0 24.2 22.4 21.3 19.5 17.7 Share of land [%] 27.3 25.7 24.1 23.1 21.6 20.0 19.0 17.4 15.8 Table 3. Average bioethanol yields used in the calculations [16, 17, 18,19] Crop 2006 2020 Crop yield Bioethanol Bioethanol Crop yield Bioethanol Bioethanol [t/ha] yield [l/t] yield [toe/ha] [t/ha] yield [l/t] yield [toe/ha] Sugar beet 53.9 95 2.6 57.9 95 2.8 Wheat 5.4 350 1.0 6.0 350 1.1 Maize 6.2 370 1.2 6.6 370 1.3 Barley 4.2 320 0.7 4.6 320 0.8 SRC 10 300 1.5 10 300 1.5 Table 4. Average biodiesel yields used in the calculations [16, 17, 18,19]. Crop 2006 2020 Crop yield Biodiesel Biodiesel Crop yield Biodiesel Biodiesel [t/ha] yield [l/t] yield [toe/ha] [t/ha] yield [l/t] yield [toe/ha] Rapeseed 2.9 440 1.0 3.3 440 1.1 Sunflower 2.3 450 0.9 3.0 450 1.0 Soybean 2.7 364 0.7 3.5 364 0.9

THE IMPACT ON LAND USE OF THE 10% BINDING TARGET Biofuels production potential in Member States One of the main objectives of the study was to determine the amount of biofuels that should be used in EU 27 in order to reach the 10% mandatory target, in each scenario for EU27 and each MS. The results showed that, in some countries, only a share can be produced, based on their potential to produce biofuels (present agricultural crop production, climate, yields, etc.). In each country it was taken into account the potential of increasing this amount, on the basis of the yield increase or increased use of crops for biofuels due to the increased demand for biofuels. In case where the available resources did not allow to produce biofuels at the level of demand, the rest would come from EU trade or from imports from outside EU. The results of the calculations are depicted in the Fig. 1 to 4 for several scenarios (s 1, s 4, s 7 and s 9). The main production of biofuels would occur in a few countries (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain and from some NMS, such as Poland, Romania) who have large agricultural areas and large potential for first generation biofuels). Lower biofuels production should be expected from Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Finland with lower agricultural area and not favourable climate conditions for first generation biofuels feedstock. Countries with low potential to produce biofuels are those with limited agricultural area and/or an overall high pressure on land (Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta). MS with a large potential to produce biofuels are those with a high land agricultural area and better conditions for cereals and oilseeds production (France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Hungary…).

Table 5. Estimated biofuel production (EU 27) under different scenarios and potential [7] [Mtoe] s1 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 8.8 6.8 0.3 1.8 0.1 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 0.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 1.9 0.4 2.4 34.5

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s2 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 8.3 6.2 0.3 1.7 0.2 2.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 0.5 2.5 34.5

s3 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 7.7 5.7 0.4 1.6 0.3 2.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7 0.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 2.7 0.5 2.6 34.5

s4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.2 7.4 5.8 0.2 1.5 0.1 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 0.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 0.4 2.0 29.3

s5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 6.9 5.2 0.3 1.4 0.2 1.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 0.4 2.1 29.3

s6 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 6.4 4.7 0.4 1.3 0.3 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 0.4 2.2 29.3

s7 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.2 6.1 4.8 0.2 1.2 0.1 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 1.3 0.3 1.7 24.2

s8 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 5.6 4.2 0.3 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.3 1.8 24.2

s9 EEA* Green-X** 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.0 5.1 7.8 9.7 3.7 13.7 6.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.7 8.9 6.7 0.2 1 0.3 0.3 5.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.0 24.1 4.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1 12.9 6.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.9 8.8 3.8 24.2 95.8 46.3

* Includes environmentally compatible bio-energy potential from agriculture. ** Includes biofuels potential for 10% biofuels prioritisation scenario, without international trade

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Fig. 1. Estimated biofuels production Fig. 2. Estimated biofuels production in EU 27 under s4 scenario in EU 27 under s1 scenario Table 5 shows the estimated biofuel production in EU 27 under the proposed scenarios and the environmentally-compatible bioenergy potential from agriculture (high energy prices and high

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Fig. 4. Estimated biofuels production in EU 27 under s9 scenario

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This shows that even in the scenario 1 the biofuels required to fulfil the 10% targets from domestic production could be, in theory produced in EU27, but reducing significantly food and feed production. The biofuels production to fulfil the demand requires high amounts of cereals, sugar beet and oilseeds, which also require high land area.


Of a total estimated production of cereals in 2020 of around 320 Mt, up to 80 Mt cereals would be required for biofuels production in case of scenario 1, 67 Mt cereals in case of scenario 4, 42 Mt cereals in case of scenario 7 and 29 Mt in case of scenario 9. The total EU production of oilseeds in 2020 is estimated at 23 Mt (based on present production and foreseen yield increase). But up to 57 Mt would be required for biodiesel production in case of scenario 1, 48 Mt oilseeds in case of

scenario 4, 40 Mt oilseeds in case of scenario 7 and 22 Mt oilseeds in case of scenario 9. Thus, since almost half of oilseeds are presently imported for domestic consumption, most of the oilseeds demand for biofuels would come from imports [15].

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Land requirements The biofuels production in the different MS was translated into land requirements for biofuels crop production. The total land used for first and second generation biofuel production would range between 17.7–30.7 Mha in 2020 in the various scenarios (Table 6). Highest area would come from several countries (Fig. 9 to 12) with high agricultural areas and better conditions for biofuels crops (France, Germany, Italy and Spain as well as NMS such as Romania, Poland and Hungary).

Fig. 14. Estimated land requirements in EU 27 Fig. 13. Estimated land requirements in EU 27 under s4 scenario [share of arable land] under s1 scenario [share of arable land] The paper estimated the area required in different scenarios and the impact on the land use in different MS (Fig. 13 to 16). The impact on land use at the EU-27 level in different scenarios, range

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12%

12%

6%

6%

0%

0%

Fig. 15. Estimated land requirements in EU 27 under s7 scenario [share of arable land]



60%



between 15%-28% of arable land that would be used.

Fig. 16. Estimated land requirements in EU 27 under s9 scenario [share of arable land]

Table 6. Land necessary for 10% biofuels under different scenarios (s1 to s9) and potential available arable land for bioenergy crops per MS estimated by EEA [6] for 2020 [thousands ha] AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU27

s1 418 166 1,732 7 1,195 595 153 420 6,670 4,817 424 2,217 80 2,980 167 381 16 0 69 2,829 219 3,723 626 30 2,875 367 1,794 30,652

s2 406 164 1,553 8 1,075 546 142 390 6,109 4,355 418 1,970 136 2,769 171 367 15 156 91 2,661 244 3,382 565 33 2,826 360 1,778 28,877

s3 395 161 1,374 10 955 497 131 360 5,547 3,893 412 1,723 193 2,558 176 354 15 0 113 2,494 269 3,041 504 37 2,778 353 1,762 27,100

s4 354 142 1,468 6 1,014 503 129 355 5,655 4,089 357 1,878 68 2,528 141 322 13 0 61 2,395 184 3,150 531 25 2,431 311 1,522 25,974

s5 343 139 1,289 7 894 455 119 325 5,094 3,626 351 1,631 124 2,316 146 309 13 0 83 2,227 209 2,809 470 29 2,382 304 1,506 24,197

s6 331 137 1,109 8 774 406 108 295 4,532 3,164 345 1,384 181 2,105 150 295 13 0 104 2,059 235 2,468 409 32 2,333 297 1,489 22,419

s7 290 117 1,204 5 833 412 106 290 4,640 3,360 291 1,539 56 2,075 116 264 11 0 52 1,961 150 2,577 436 21 1,987 255 1,249 21,294

s8 279 115 1,024 6 713 363 95 260 4,079 2,897 285 1,292 112 1,864 120 250 10 0 74 1,793 175 2,236 375 24 1,938 248 1,233 19,516

s9 268 112 845 7 592 314 84 231 3,517 2,434 279 1,044 169 1,653 125 237 10 0 96 1,625 200 1,895 314 27 1,889 241 1,216 17,737

EEA 266 0

314 0 154 299 1,000 2,000 298 512 0 1,786 144 882

0 4,321 169 140 16 2,582 168 1,118 16,170

In relative terms, biofuels production would require a high share of agricultural area (Fig. 13 to 16) to be used for biofuels, reaching about 50% in Bulgaria or Hungary and more than 40% in Czech Republic, Germany, Romania and Slovakia in the scenario 1. However this scenario, where all biofuels would be domestically produced, without any contribution from second generation biofuels, is very unlikely. The share of area required for biofuels obviously decreases if we consider biofuels import. In case we consider all biofuels to be first generation and 30% imported, the share of land

accounts in average 18%, while the highest share is reached in Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary, with more than 30%.

CONCLUSIONS The analysis shows that the biofuel required in EU 27 could be produced, in theory, from domestic sources in EU27. This, for example, complies with the bioenergy potential from agriculture, estimated by EEA [7] (high energy prices and high yields) and Green-X data [10] for 2030 in case of prioritisation of the transport sector (10% biofuels by 2020 - without international trade). It shows that even in the scenario 1 (all domestic, first generation only), the biofuels required to fulfil the 10% targets form domestic production could be, in theory, produced in EU27, but they would significantly affect food and feed sectors. However, the land requirements for biofuels production in the nine scenarios investigated (ranging from 30 Mha to 17 Mha), would be more than the potential available arable land for bioenergy crops estimated by [6]. Besides, in several scenarios, a high share of land would be necessary for biofuels production at Member States level. This confirms that the 10% biofuels should come not only from first generation, domestic biofuels. The additional demand for biofuels to meet the 10% share in total transportation fuels by 2020 would require a strong increase in imports due to the limited land available in the EU. The second generation biofuels could also contribute to the reduction of land requirements due to their presumed higher energy yields per hectare. However, due to the high uncertainties related to the availability of second generation biofuels until 2020, their share could be even less than 0-15% and in this case the imported share of biofuels would be around 30% or more. Literature References [1] European Parliament, Council Directive on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport COM 2003/30/EC. [2] EC, "Renewable Energy Road Map Renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future Impact Assessment", SEC(2006) 1719. [3] EC, "Biomass action plan", COM (2005) 628. [4] EC, "Staff working document", SEC(2006) 1721. [5] EC, "Report on the progress made in the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels in the Member States of the European Union", COM(2006) 845 final. [6] EEA Report No 7/2006 "How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment?", ISBN 92–9167–849-X2006. [7] EEA Technical report No 12/2007 "Estimating the environmentally compatible bioenergy potential from agriculture", ISBN 978-92-9167-969-0, 2007. [8] AEBIOM "European Biomass Statistics 2007 A statistical report on the contribution of biomass to the energy system in the EU 27", 2007. [9] JEC "Well to wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and power trains in the European context. Well to wheels Report ", Version 2c, 2007. [10] Resch, G., Faber, T., Ragwitz, M., Toro F. "Assistance with identifying environmentally beneficial ways of using biomass for energy, EU-25. Final Report", 2007. [11] EC, "An EU strategy for biofuels", COM (2006) 34. [12] EC, DG TREN, "Energy transport trends 2030 update 2005", ISBN 92-79-02305-5, 2006. [13] EC, DG AGRI "The impact of a minimum 10% obligation for biofuel use in the EU-27 in 2020 on agricultural markets", AGRI G-2/WM D(2007). [14] IEA "World Energy Outlook 2006". [15] EC, DG AGRI "Prospects of agricultural markets and income in the European Union 20062013", 2007. [16] http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1090,30070682,1090_33076576&_dad =portal&_schema=PORTAL. [17] OECD "Agricultural Market Impacts of Future Growth in the Production of Biofuels", OECD Document No. AGR/CA/APM(2005)24/FINAL. Paris, 2006. [18] M. Enguídanos, A. Soria, B. Kavalov, P. Jensen, "Techno-economic analysis of Bio-diesel production in the EU: a short summary for decision-makers", IPTS, EUR 20279, 2002. [19] M. Enguídanos, A. Soria, B. Kavalov, P. Jensen, "Techno-economic analysis of Bio-alcohol production in the EU: a short summary for decision-makers" EUR20280, 2002.