Infrastructuurkosten van het goederenwegverkeer - SRE-Discussion

0 downloads 0 Views 186KB Size Report
1999/62/EG we furthermore allocate costs to foreign trucks ! 12 ton for the kilometres driven on Dutch highways. The remainder of this paper looks as follows.
&RVWVRI5RDG,QIUDVWUXFWXUHIRU3DVVHQJHUDQG)UHLJKW7UDQVSRUWLQ7KH1HWKHU ODQGV

0DUN-.RHWVH

)UDQN5%UXLQVPD 3LHW5LHWYHOG

'HSDUWPHQWRI6SDWLDO(FRQRPLFV )UHH8QLYHUVLW\$PVWHUGDP

6XPPDU\,QWKLVSDSHUWKHFRVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQDQGODQGXVH RI URDG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQ 7KH 1HWKHUODQGV DUH DOORFDWHG WR VHYHUDO WUDQVSRUW PRGHV LQ

SDVVHQJHU DQGIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW2SSRVHGWR HDUOLHU UHVHDUFKDFRQVLGHUDEOHQXPEHU RI ZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHGIRUIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW7KHUHVXOWVVKRZWKDWFRVWVSHU NLORPHWUH DOORFDWHG WR WKH KHDYLHU WUXFN FDWHJRULHV DUH FRQVLGHUDEO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH DOORFDWHGWRWKHOLJKWHUWUXFNFDWHJRULHV'HUHDVRQEHKLQGWKLVLVWKDWRQWKHEDVLVRIWK

SRZHU D[OH ORDGV D ODUJH SDUW RI EXLOGLQJ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH FRVWV LV DOORFDWHG WR WKH KHDYLHVWWUDQVSRUWPRGHV)XUWKHUPRUHODUJHUHODWLYHGLIIHUHQFHVLQDYHUDJHWUXFNORDG

LQJEHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQWZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVKDYHDVXEVWDQWLDOHIIHFWRQWKHUHVXOWV&RQ FOXGLQJZHFDQVWDWHWKDWZKHQWKHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQZHLJKW FDWHJRULHV PDGH LQ WKLV

VWXG\LVLJQRUHGDODUJHSDUWRIWKHFRVWVFDXVHGE\KHDY\WUXFNVLVDOORFDWHGWROLJKWHU WUXFNVDQGSDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUWPRGHV 

&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HO  )D[  (PDLO

PNRHWVH#IHZHEYXQO



,QWURGXFWLRQ

7KLVSDSHULVEDVHGRQ H[SORUDWRU\ UHVHDUFK DQGVKRXOGEHVHHQDVD ILUVWVWHSWRZDUGV

LQWHUQDOLVLQJWKH FRVWVRIURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU SDVVHQJHU DQG IUHLJKW WUDQVSRUW ,W LV D VKRUW DQG DGDSWHG YHUVLRQ RI D UHVHDUFK UHSRUW E\ WKH 98   LQ DVVLJQPHQW RI WKH

0LQLVWU\RI+RXVLQJ3ODQQLQJDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW7KHDVVLJQPHQWZDVWRGHWHUPLQH WKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHFRVWVRIURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHWKDWFDQEHDOORFDWHGWRSDVVHQJHUDQG IUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW

&RVWVRIURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDUHVSOLWXSLQFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVFRVWVRIODQGXVHPDLQWH

QDQFH FRVWV DQG RSHUDWLRQ FRVWV 7KH PDLQ UHDVRQ LV WKDW WKH PHWKRG RI DOORFDWLQJ WKH FRVWV WR WUDQVSRUW PRGHV GLIIHUV EHWZHHQ WKHVH FRVW FDWHJRULHV ,Q WKH FDOFXODWLRQV ZH GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ KLJKZD\V PRWRUZD\V  SURYLQFLDO URDGV DQG PXQLFLSDO URDGV 8QLTXHWRWKLVVWXG\LVWKDWDODUJHQXPEHURIWUXFNZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVLVGLVWLQJXLVKHGLQ RUGHUWRDQDO\VHGLIIHUHQFHVLQFRVWHVWLPDWHVDQGFRPSDUHWKHUHVXOWVWRHDUOLHUVWXGLHV

WKDW GLVWLQJXLVK RQO\ D VPDOO QXPEHU RI FDWHJRULHV ,Q OLQH ZLWK (XURSHDQ JXLGHOLQH

(*ZHIXUWKHUPRUHDOORFDWHFRVWVWRIRUHLJQWUXFNV!WRQIRUWKHNLORPHWUHV GULYHQRQ'XWFKKLJKZD\V

7KH UHPDLQGHU RI WKLV SDSHU ORRNV DV IROORZV 7KH QH[W 6HFWLRQ GLVFXVVHV WKH GDWD ZH XVH ZKLOH 6HFWLRQ  DGGUHVVHV WKH PHWKRGV RI DOORFDWLQJ WKH FRVWV WR SDVVHQJHU DQG IUHLJKW WUDQVSRUW 7KH UHVXOWV DUH SUHVHQWHG DQG GLVFXVVHG LQ 6HFWLRQ  6HFWLRQ  FRQ WDLQVWKHFRQFOXVLRQVDQGVXJJHVWLRQVIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK 

&RVWVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVDQGD[OHGDPDJHIDFWRUV

,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHGLVFXVVWKHGDWDZHXVHIRURXUUHVHDUFKDQGWKHDVVXPSWLRQVZHKDG WRPDNHWRJHWDWWKHGDWDIRUPDWZHQHHG,QWKHIROORZLQJVXEVHFWLRQVZHGLVFXVVVXE

VHTXHQWO\WKHFRVWVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQDQGODQGXVH YHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVE\WUDQVSRUWPRGHVGLVWLQJXLVKHGLQWKLVVWXG\DQGWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQ RID[OHGDPDJHIDFWRUV



&RVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQDQGODQGXVH

&%6 6WDWLVWLFVGLVWLQJXLVKFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHDQGRSHUDWLRQFRVWVRILQIUDVWUXF WXUHRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIURDGDGPLQLVWUDWRUVLHFHQWUDOSURYLQFLDODQGPXQLFLSDOJRY HUQPHQW,QWKLVVWXG\ZHPDNHDGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQKLJKZD\VPRWRUZD\V SURYLQ FLDOURDGVDQGPXQLFLSDOURDGV6LQFHERWKKLJKZD\VDQGPRWRUZD\VDUHXQGHUWKHFHQ

WUDOJRYHUQPHQW¶VDGPLQLVWUDWLRQZHGLYLGHLQYHVWPHQWE\WKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWLQWR LQYHVWPHQWLQKLJKZD\VDQGLQYHVWPHQWLQPRWRUZD\VRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHKLVWRULFDOGH YHORSPHQWRIWKHOHQJWKRIERWKURDGW\SHV$QDVVXPSWLRQPDGHKHUHLVWKDWFRQVWUXF WLRQRIKLJKZD\VLVWKUHHWLPHVDVH[SHQVLYHDVFRQVWUXFWLRQRIPRWRUZD\V 562 

,QYHVWPHQWVLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDUHFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRURDG DGPLQLVWUDWRUIRUWR :HXVHDGHSUHFLDWLRQSHULRGRI\HDUVDQGDSXEOLFLQWHUHVWUDWHRISHU\HDU 6LQFHZHFDOFXODWHFRVWVIRUWKH \HDUZHQHHG DQLQYHVWPHQWVHULHV IURPWR

 7KHUHIRUH IRU WKH \HDUV  WR  ZH XVH WRWDO LQYHVWPHQW LQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH JRWIURP&(  DQGDOORFDWHLWWRWKHURDGDGPLQLVWUDWRUVRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHLUDYHU

DJHVKDUHLQWRWDOLQYHVWPHQWRYHUWKH\HDUVWR)RUWKH\HDUZHVLPSO\ XVH WKH ILJXUH IURP  EHFDXVH LQ JHQHUDO HVWLPDWHG LQYHVWPHQW GHYLDWHV VXEVWDQ WLDOO\IURPDFWXDOLQYHVWPHQW

,QIUDVWUXFWXUHPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWVDUHDOVRFODVVLILHGLQWRFRVWVRIFHQWUDOSURYLQFLDODQG

PXQLFLSDOJRYHUQPHQWIRUWKH\HDUVWR &%66WDWOLQH )RUWKH\HDUZH XVHWKHDJJUHJDWHGPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWVLQDQGDGGWKHDYHUDJHDQQXDOLQFUHDVHGXU

LQJWKHSHULRG:HWKHQDOORFDWHWKHFRVWVWRWKHGLIIHUHQWURDGDGPLQLVWUDWRUV RQWKHEDVLVRIWKHLUDYHUDJHVKDUHLQWRWDOFRVWVIURPWR)XUWKHUPRUHPDLQ WHQDQFH FRVWV RI URDGV LQ WKH FHQWUDO JRYHUQPHQW DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ DUH VSOLW LQWR FRVWV RI KLJKZD\V DQGPRWRUZD\VRQWKHEDVLVRI WKHLU UHODWLYH ODQG XVH 0  LQ WKH \HDU  VHH98 $QLGHQWLFDOSURFHGXUHDVIRUPDLQWHQDQFH FRVWVLVXVHGIRURSHUDWLRQ

FRVWV ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ WKDW WKH GLVDJJUHJDWHG VHULHV IRU RSHUDWLRQ FRVWV LV DYDLODEOH IURPWRRQO\

&RVWVRIODQGXVHE\LQIUDVWUFXWXUHDUHFDOFXODWHGLQWKH98  VWXG\&RVWVRIODQG

XVHE\URDGVJDVVWDWLRQVUHVWDQGSDUNLQJDUHDVDQGODQGVFDSHIUDJPHQWDWLRQLQVLGHWKH XUEDQ DUHD DUH DOORFDWHG IXOO\ WR WKH PXQLFLSDO URDG QHWZRUN 2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH 98

  VWXG\ ZH FDQ GLUHFWO\ FDOFXODWH FRVWV RI ODQG XVH E\ KLJKZD\V PRWRUZD\V

SURYLQFLDOURDGVDQGPXQLFLSDOURDGV RXWVLGHWKHXUEDQDUHD&RVWVRIODQGXVHE\JDV

VWDWLRQVUHIUHVKPHQWDUHDVDQGODQGVFDSHIUDJPHQWDWLRQRXWVLGHWKHXUEDQDUHDDUHDOOR FDWHGWRWKHGLIIHUHQWURDGFDWHJRULHVRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHLUUHODWLYHODQGXVHDQGOHQJWK

)LQDOO\FRVWVRILQGLUHFWODQGXVHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHWUDQVSRUWRIGDQJHURXVJRRGVDUH DOORFDWHGWRIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWRQO\

)RU DOORFDWLRQ RI FRVWV RI WKH PXQLFLSDO URDG QHWZRUN ZH XVH WKH PHWKRG E\ 7/1

  6LQFH PXQLFLSDO URDGV KDYH RWKHU IXQFWLRQV EHVLGHV D WUDQVSRUW IXQFWLRQ RQO\ SDUWRIPXQLFLSDOURDGFRVWVFDQEHDOORFDWHGWRPRWRULVHGWUDQVSRUW7KHPDJQLWXGHRI WKLVSDUWLVXQNQRZQIRU7KH1HWKHUODQGVZKLFKLVZK\ZHVHWLWDWIROORZLQJWKH 6ZLVV%XQGHVDPWIU6WDWLVWLN VHHDOVR7/1 )XUWKHUPRUH7/1DUJXHVWKDW

RI WKLV  FDQ EH DWWULEXWHG WR SDUNLQJ DUHDV DQG VSDFHV 6LQFH ZH GR QRW WDNH WKHVH

FRVWVLQWRDFFRXQWZHH[FOXGHWKHVHFRVWVIURPRXUDQDO\VLV:HDOORFDWHWKHUHPDLQLQJ  RI  RI PXQLFLSDO URDG FRVWV WR PRWRULVHG WUDQVSRUW $ VSHFLDO IHDWXUH RI WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ LV WKDW IRXU PXQLFLSDO URDG FDWHJRULHV DUH GLVWLQJXLVKHG ZLWK HDFK FDWH

JRU\DVSHFLILFGLVWULEXWLRQRIYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVE\WKHGLVWLQJXLVKHGWUDQVSRUWPRGHV )RUIXUWKHUGHWDLOVRIDOORFDWLRQRIPXQLFLSDOURDGFRVWVVHH7/1  

7DEOH7RWDOFRVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQDQGODQGXVHRI'XWFKURDGLQIU D VWUXFWXUHGLYLGHGLQWRKLJKZD\VPRWRUZD\VSURYLQFLDOURDGVDQGPXQLFLSDOURDGVLQ PL O OLRQ(XUR +LJKZD\V 0RWRUZD\V 3URYLQFLDO 0XQLFLSDO URDGV URDGV &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV     &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV     0DLQWHQDQFHFRVWV)L[HG     0DLQWHQDQFHFRVWV9DULDEOH     2SHUDWLRQFRVWV     &RVWVRIODQGXVH  

 &RVWVRIODQGXVH5'*

 



1RRSHUDWLRQFRVWVDUHNQRZQIRUSURYLQFLDOURDGV

)RUFRVWVRIODQGXVHLWZDVQRWSRVVLEOHWRPDNHDGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQPRWRUZD\VDQGSURYLQFLDOURDGV

5'*PHDQV5RXWHVIRUWKHWUDQVSRUWRI'DQJHURXV*RRGV

&RVWVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQDQGODQGXVHIRUWKHGLVWLQ

JXLVKHG URDG FDWHJRULHV LQ  DUH VXPPDULVHG LQ 7DEOH  2EVHUYH WKDW FRVWV RI WKH PXQLFLSDOURDGQHWZRUNDUHKLJKHVWLQDEVROXWHWHUPVIRUDOOGLVWLQJXLVKHGFRVWW\SHVDQG WKDWFRVWVRIODQGXVHDUHVXEVWDQWLDOFRPSDUHGWRRWKHUIL[HGFRVWV



9HKLFOHNLORPHWUHVRISDVVHQJHUDQGIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW

5HJDUGLQJ SDVVHQJHU FDUV PRWRUELNHV EXVVHV WRXULQJ FDUV DQG GHOLYHU\ YDQV ZH JRW

YHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVDQGRWKHUUHOHYDQWGDWDIURP&%67KHDOORFDWLRQRIYHKLFOHNLORPH WUHV RI DERYH PHQWLRQHG WUDQVSRUW PRGHV WR KLJKZD\V PRWRUZD\V  SURYLQFLDO URDGV

DQGPXQLFLSDOURDGVZDVGRQHRQWKHEDVLVRIGDWDIURP&(  9HKLFOHNLORPHWUHV IRUSDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUWDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOH

7DEOH9HKLFOHNLORPHWUHVRI'XWFKSDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUW DQGGHOLYHU\YDQV RQ'XWFKURDGVLQ LQPLOOLRQNP 7RWDO9NP 9NPRQKLJKZD\V 3DVVHQJHUFDU   %XVFLW\UHJLRQDO   7RXULQJFDU   0RWRUF\FOH   0RSHG   'HOLYHU\YDQ   6RXUFH&%66WDWOLQH

:HXVHGDWDIURP1($  RQYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVLQRI'XWFKVRORWUXFNV

WRQDQG!WRQDQGRQ'XWFKFRPELQDWLRQWUXFNV!WRQDQGWUDLOHUV!WRQDWERWK WKH HQWLUH 'XWFK URDG QHWZRUN DQG KLJKZD\V 7KH VKDUH GULYHQ DW PXQLFLSDO URDGV LV

EDVHG RQ &(   LQIRUPDWLRQ 7R DOORFDWH YHKLFOH NLORPHWUHV DW WKH GLIIHUHQW URDG W\SHV WR WKH PDQ\ WUXFN ZHLJKW FDWHJRULHV ZH GLVWLQJXLVK LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZH XVH &%6

 GDWD7KLVLVWKHPRVWUHFHQWVRXUFHWKDWSURYLGHVYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVDWWKHHQWLUH 'XWFKURDGQHWZRUNRIPDQ\WUXFNZHLJKWFDWHJRULHV:HXVHWKHSURSRUWLRQRIYHKLFOH

NLORPHWUHVRIHDFKZHLJKWFDWHJRU\LQWKHWRWDODPRXQWRIYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVLQWR IXUWKHUDOORFDWHWUXFNNLORPHWUHVGULYHQLQWRWKHZHLJKWFDWHJRULHV1RWHKHUHWKDW ZHXVHWKHVHSURSRUWLRQVUHJDUGLQJDOOGLVWLQJXLVKHGURDGW\SHV

7DEOH9HKLFOHNLORPHWUHVRIIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWRQ'XWFKURDGVLQLQPLOOLRQNP 7RWDO9NP 9NPRQKLJKZD\V 'XWFKWUXFNV 7UXFNVRORW   7UXFNVROR!W   7UXFNFRPELQDWLRQ!W   7UDFWRUZLWKWUDLOHU   )RUHLJQWUXFNV 7UXFN VRORDQGFRPEL W 1$  7UXFN VRORFRPELDQGWUDFWRU !W 1$ 

'LVWLQFWLRQRIZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVLVGRQHRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHPD[LPXPSHUPLWWHGZHLJKW 6RXUFH1($ 

)RU YHKLFOH NLORPHWUHV GULYHQ E\ IRUHLJQ WUXFNV DW 'XWFK KLJKZD\V ZH XVH GDWD IURP

1($  IRUWUXFNVWRQDQG!WRQ$OORFDWLRQWRWKHZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVGLVWLQ JXLVKHGLQWKLVVWXG\ZDVGRQHRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH GDWD ZH XVHG IRU 'XWFK WUXFNV DOVR

&%6 7DEOHVXPPDULVHVYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVIRUIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWDWVHYHUDOURDG W\SHV LQ  7DEOH  SURYLGHV DPRQJ RWKHU WKLQJV  GDWD RQ YHKLFOH NLORPHWUHV LQ 

7DEOH%DVHGDWDIRUIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW 7UXFNVROR 0D[LPXP 3HUPLWWHG :HLJKW

$YHUDJH :HLJKW 8QORDGHG

$YHUDJH :HLJKW /RDGHG

     

     

     

  

  

  

$EVROXWH 9NPLQ POQ

          

5HODWLYH 9NP

          

7UXFNFRPELQDWLRQ 0D[LPXP $YHUDJH 3HUPLWWHG :HLJKW :HLJKW 8QORDGHG

$YHUDJH :HLJKW /RDGHG

$EVROXWH 9NPLQPOQ

5HODWLYH 9NP

7UDFWRUZLWKWUDLOHU 0D[LPXP $YHUDJH 3HUPLWWHG :HLJKW :HLJKW 8QORDGHG

$YHUDJH :HLJKW /RDGHG

      

$EVROXWH 9NPLQPOQ

      

5HODWLYH 9NP

      

      

     

     

     

     

     

     

RIYNP WKDWZDV ORDGHG

1XPEHURI $[OHV

$[OH&RQ ILJXUDWLRQ

     

  

     

6LQJOH 6LQJOH 6LQJOH

  

RIORDGHG 1XPEHURI 9NP $[OHV

     

     

RIORDGHG 1XPEHURI 9NP $[OHV

     

     

'DWDIRU 6RXUFH7/1&%6  DQGRZQFDOFXODWLRQVRQWKHEDVLVRI7/1DQG&%6  GDWD 

6LQJOH 6LQJOH 6LQJOH 6LQJOH 6LQJOH 6LQJOH $[OH&RQ ILJXUDWLRQ 6LQJOH 6LQJOH 6LQJOH 6LQJOH 7DQ7ULGHP 7ULGHP $[OH&RQ ILJXUDWLRQ 6LQJOH 6LQJOH 7DQGHP 7DQGHP 7ULGHP 7ULGHP



$[OHGDPDJHIDFWRUV

'DWDRQDYHUDJHORDGRIGLIIHUHQWWUXFNZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVDUHDOVRJRWIURP&%6   )RUDYHUDJHORDGSHUZHLJKWFDWHJRU\LQZHVLPSO\XVHWKHGDWDIURPEHFDXVH DYHUDJHORDGIRUFRXOGQRWEHFDOFXODWHGIURPDYDLODEOHGDWD DWOHDVWQRWIRUDOOWKH ZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVZHGLVWLQJXLVKLQWKLVVWXG\ ,QWKH&%6VWXG\KRZHYHUZHLJKWLVGH

ILQHGDVWKHµPD[LPXPORDG¶LQVWHDGRIWKHµPD[LPXPDOORZHGZHLJKW¶GHILQLWLRQWKDWLV

XVHGLQXQGHUO\LQJVWXG\7RWUDQVIRUPWKHIRUPHULQWRWKHODWWHU7/1SURYLGHGGDWDRQ

DYHUDJHZHLJKWRIHPSW\WUXFNVLQGLYHUVHPD[LPXPORDGFDWHJRULHV)RUDYHUDJHORDG

RIIRUHLJQWUXFNVRQ'XWFKKLJKZD\VZHDOVRXVHWKHDYHUDJHORDGVIURPWKH&%6VWXG\ IRU'XWFKWUXFNV1RWHWKDWWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIYHKLFOH NLORPHWUHVRQ'XWFKKLJKZD\VDPRQJWKHZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVLVLGHQWLFDOIRU'XWFKDQG IRUHLJQWUXFNVWKLVLPSOLHVWKDWIRUHLJQWUXFNVDWKLJKZD\V KDYHWKHVDPHFRVWVSHUYH KLFOHNLORPHWUHDV'XWFKWUXFNVLQWKHVDPHZHLJKWFDWHJRU\

,PSRUWDQW IXUWKHUPRUH LV WKDW WKH WRRO WR PHDVXUH UHODWLYH  URDG GDPDJH RI WUDQVSRUW PRGHVLVEDVHGRQD[OHGDPDJHIDFWRUV7KLVLPSOLHVWKDWQH[WWRDYHUDJHORDGZHUH

TXLUHGDWDRQWKHDYHUDJHDPRXQWRID[OHVDQGRQD[OHFRQILJXUDWLRQSHUZHLJKWFDWHJRU\ VHH'::DQG98RQKRZWRDFFRXQWIRUD[OHFRQILJXUDWLRQLQFDOFXODW

LQJD[OHGDPDJHIDFWRUV 7KHVHGDWDZHUHSURYLGHGE\7/1ZKHUHLWVKRXOGEHQRWHG

WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI D[OHV SHU ZHLJKW FDWHJRU\ LV WKH OHJDO PLQLPXP QXPEHU RI D[OHV 'DWDIRUIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOH 

$OORFDWLRQPHWKRG

7KLVVHFWLRQDGGUHVVHVWKHPHWKRGVZHXVHWRDOORFDWHFRVWVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHWRSDVVHQ JHUDQGIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW6XEVHTXHQWO\ZHGLVFXVVWKHPHWKRGWRDOORFDWHFRVWVRIFRQ

VWUXFWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFH RSHUDWLRQ DQG ODQG XVH &RVWV RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQVWUXFWLRQ

VKRXOGEHWUHDWHGDVIL[HGFRVWVDWOHDVWWKHODUJHVWSDUWRILW%DVHGRQDVWXG\E\'+9  DQGFRQIRUPWKHDOORFDWLRQPHWKRGLQ&(  DQG7/1  RIFRQ

VWUXFWLRQFRVWVLVDOORFDWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIYHKLFOH NLORPHWUHV DQG 3&( 3DVVHQJHU &DU

(TXLYDOHQW )RUWKH3&(¶VRIGLIIHUHQWWUDQVSRUW PRGHV ZH DGRSW WKH PHWKRG XVHG E\ 7/1   $WDVDIHW\GLVWDQFHRIPHWUHVZKLFKLVUHTXLUHGDWDVSHHGRINLOR

PHWUHVSHUKRXUWKH3&(RIDGHOLYHU\YDQLVHTXDOWRWKDWRIDWUXFNVRORDQGDEXV

 DQG WKDW RI D WUXFN FRPELQDWLRQ DQG WUDLOHU  $W D VDIHW\ GLVWDQFH RI  PHWUHV

ZKLFKLVUHTXLUHGDWDVSHHGRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\NLORPHWUHVSHUKRXUWKH3&(RIDGH

OLYHU\YDQLVHTXDOWRWKDWRIDWUXFNVRORDQGDEXVDQGWKDWRIDWUXFNFRPELDQGD WUDLOHU  +RZHYHU 7/1 DOORFDWHV  RI   RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV DW KLJKZD\V DQGPRWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGVRQWKHEDVLVRI3&(DWNLORPHWUHVSHUKRXU:H

DUJXHWKDWWKLVLVQRWUHDOLVWLFVLQFHWKHVSHHGDWWKHVHURDGW\SHVLVDWOHDVWNLORPH WUHVSHUKRXU PRVWRIWKHWLPH7KHUHIRUHZHDOORFDWHRIRIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV RQ WKH EDVLV RI 3&( DW  NLORPHWUHV SHU KRXU  LV RXU HVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH UHODWLYH QXPEHURINLORPHWUHVGULYHQLQSHDNKRXUV 7KHUHPDLQLQJZHDOORFDWHRQWKHED

VLV RI 3&( DW  NLORPHWUHV SHU KRXU $W PXQLFLSDO URDGV WKH PD[LPXP VSHHG LV  NLORPHWUHVSHUKRXUDQGDFFRUGLQJO\ZHDOORFDWHRIRIPXQLFLSDOURDGFRQ VWUXFWLRQ FRVWV RQ WKH EDVLV RI 3&( DW  NLORPHWUHV SHU KRXU ZKLFK LV FORVH WR  NP?KRXU  6LQFH FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV DUH KLJKHU ZKHQ D URDG KDV WR EH DEOH WR KDQGOH

KHDYLHUYHKLFOHVWKHUHPDLQLQJRIWRWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVLVDOORFDWHGRQWKHEDVLV RI YHKLFOH NLORPHWUHV DQG WK SRZHU D[OH ORDGV '+9   7KXV WKLV SDUW RI FRQ VWUXFWLRQ FRVWV LV YDULDEOH LQ ZHLJKW RI WKH WUDQVSRUW PRGHV PDNLQJ XVH RI WKH LQIUD VWUXFWXUHDQGYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHV

,Q'::  RIPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWV DUHUHJDUGHGDVLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHLQWHQVLW\ RIXVHRIWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGFDQWKHUHIRUHEHUHJDUGHGDVIL[HGFRVWV,GHQWLFDODVDO ORFDWLRQRIIL[HGFRVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQRIRIPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWVRIKLJKZD\V

DQGPRWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGVLVDOORFDWHGRQWKHEDVLVRI3&(DWNLORPHWUHVSHU KRXUZKLOH I LVDOORFDWHGRQWKHEDVLVRI3&(DWNLORPHWUHVSHUKRXU

)L[HG PDLQWHQDQFH FRVWV RI PXQLFLSDO URDGV DUH DJDLQ IXOO\ DOORFDWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI 3&( DW D VSHHG RI  NLORPHWUHV SHU KRXU 7KH UHPDLQLQJ  RI URDG PDLQWHQDQFH

FRVWVDSSHDUVWREHGHSHQGHQWRQWKHLQWHQVLW\RIXVHRIWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGWKHZHLJKW RIWKHYHKLFOH7KH':: VWXG\VXJJHVWWKDWRQO\RIWKLVVKRXOGEHDOOR FDWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIQG SRZHUD[OHORDGVDQGRQWKHEDVLVRIWK SRZHUD[OHORDGV

2SHUDWLRQFRVWV FRQVLVWODUJHO\RIIDFLOLWDWLQJWKHURDGXVHULHUHPRYLQJLFHDIWHUIURVW VLJQSRVWLQJNHHSLQJFOHDQUHVWDQGSDUNLQJDUHDVDQGWKHFRVWVRISROLFH$VVXFKRS HUDWLRQFRVWVDUHODUJHO\IL[HGFRVWVDQGWKH\DUHWKHUHIRUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHUHVXOWVDVDY

HUDJHFRVWVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUH D FKDQJHLQWUDIILFYROXPH ZLOOOLNHO\RQO\LQGXFHDYHU\ VPDOOFKDQJHLQRSHUDWLRQFRVWV $OORFDWLRQRIRSHUDWLRQ FRVWV LV GRQH RQ WKH EDVLV RI YHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVRQO\

7DEOH$OORFDWLRQPHWKRGVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRVWV 9NP 3&( 3&( QG SRZHU PHWUHV PHWUHV D[OHORDG

9NP

9NP

9NP &RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV )L[HGFRVWV  +: DQG0: 35      05     9DULDEOHFRVWV      &RVWVRIPDLQWHQDQFH )L[HGFRVWV  +:DQG0: 35     05     9DULDEOHFRVWV      &RVWVRIODQGXVH +:DQG0: 35     05     2SHUDWLRQFRVWV     +:PHDQVKLJKZD\V 0: 35PHDQVPRWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGV 05PHDQVPXQLFLSDOURDGV

WK SRZHU D[OHORDG

9NP

7RWDO

  

  

  

  

  

  

,Q WKH 98   VWXG\ FRVWV RI ODQG XVH E\ VHYHUDO W\SHV RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DUH FDOFX

ODWHG 5HJDUGLQJ GLUHFW ODQG XVH HVWLPDWLRQV RQ ODQG XVH 0  ZHUH WUDQVIRUPHG LQWR

FRVWVRIODQGXVH ¼?0 XVLQJLQIRUPDWLRQRQFRVWVRIDFTXLULQJODQGZLWKLQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQVWUXFWLRQDVLWVVSHFLILFGHVWLQDWLRQ,QGLUHFWODQGXVHLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKJRYHUQPHQW LPSRVHGUHVWULFWLRQVRQWKHXVHRIODQG DGMRLQLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHXVXDOO\IRU VDIHW\ UHD

VRQVRUEHFDXVHRIKLJKQRLVHOHYHOV (VWLPDWLRQVRILQGLUHFWODQGXVHDUHWUDQVIRUPHG LQWRFRVWVRQWKHEDVLVRIRSSRUWXQLW\FRVWVEHLQJWKHDYHUDJHYDOXHRIODQGZLWKRXWUH VWULFWLRQVPLQXVWKHDFWXDOYDOXHRIODQG&RVWVRIGLUHFWDQGLQGLUHFWODQGXVHDUHDOOR FDWHGXVLQJWKHVDPHSURFHGXUHDVLVXVHGIRUIL[HGFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV$VPHQWLRQHGEH IRUHFRVWVRILQGLUHFWODQGXVHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHWUDQVSRUWRIGDQJHURXVJRRGVDUHDO ORFDWHGWRIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWRQO\

7DEOH'LYLVLRQRIFRVWVLQWRIL[HGDQGYDULDEOHFRVWV &RQVWUXFWLRQ 0DLQWHQDQFHFRVWV FRVWV )L[HG 9DULDEOH )L[HGFRVWV ; ; 9DULDEOHFRVWV ;

2SHUDWLRQ FRVWV ;

&RVWVRIODQG XVH ;

,Q7DEOHDVXPPDU\LVJLYHQRIDEVROXWHFRVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHRSHUDWLRQ

DQG ODQG XVH IRU GLIIHUHQW URDG FDWHJRULHV ZKLOH 7DEOH  VXPPDULVHV ZKLFK FRVWV DUH

SUHVHQWHG DVDYHUDJH DQGZKLFK DUHSUHVHQWHG DVYDULDEOH FRVWV RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQ WKH

6HFWLRQ1RWHWKDWYDULDEOHFRVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQDUHLQFOXGHGDVIL[HGFRVWVSHUNLOR

PHWUHEHFDXVHWKH\DUHGHSHQGHQWWRDODUJHH[WHQWRQZHLJKWRIWKHWUDQVSRUWPRGHVDQG RQO\IRUDVPDOOSDUWRQYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHV 

5HVXOWV

,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ WKH UHVXOWV DUH SUHVHQWHG $V PHQWLRQHG D GLVWLQFWLRQ LV PDGH EHWZHHQ

FRVWVRIKLJKZD\VPRWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGVDQGPXQLFLSDOURDGV2XUPDLQLQWHU HVWLVLQWKHFRVWVRIIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW7KHVHDUHGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQ)RUFRPSOHWH QHVVLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQZHSUHVHQWUHVXOWVIRUSDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUW H[FHSWIRUWKHGHOLY HU\YDQ  

&RVWVRISDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUW

7DEOHSUHVHQWVFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHIRUSDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUWDWGLIIHUHQWURDGFDWHJRULHV IRUWKH\HDU$YHUDJHFRVWVDWWKHHQWLUH'XWFKURDGQHWZRUNDUHDOVRSUHVHQWHG

7DEOH&RVWVRIKLJKZD\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHPRWRUZD\ SURYLQFLDOURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGP X QLFLSDOURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRU'XWFKSDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUW LQ ¼FWSHU9NP  &RQVWUXF &RQVWUXF 0DLQWH 2SHUDWLRQ &RVWVRI 7RWDO 7RWDO WLRQFRVWV WLRQFRVWV QDQFH FRVWV ODQGXVH )L[HG 9DULDEOH   FRVWV &RVWV &RVWV +LJKZD\V 3DVVHQJHUFDU        %XVFLW\UHJLRQDO        %XVWRXULQJ        0RWRUF\FOH        'HOLYHU\YDQ        0RWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGV 3DVVHQJHUFDU        %XVFLW\UHJLRQDO        %XVWRXULQJ        0RWRUF\FOH        0RSHG        'HOLYHU\YDQ        0XQLFLSDOURDGV 3DVVHQJHUFDU        %XVFLW\UHJLRQDO        %XVWRXULQJ        0RWRUF\FOH        0RSHG        'HOLYHU\YDQ        

)RUUHVXOWVRQFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHDWWKHHQWLUH'XWFKURDGQHWZRUNFRQWDFWWKHDXWKRUV

6WULNLQJLVWKDWFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHDWPXQLFLSDOURDGVDUHVXEVWDQWLDOO\KLJKHUWKDQFRVWV

DWWKHWZRRWKHUURDGW\SHV7KHUHDVRQIRUWKLVLVWKDWWRWDOFRVWVRIPXQLFLSDOURDGVDUH VXEVWDQWLDOO\KLJKHUWKDQWRWDOFRVWVRIWKHRWKHUWZRURDGW\SHVDQGWKDWPXQLFLSDOURDGV DUHXVHGOHVVLQWHQVLYHO\WKDQRWKHUURDGV

2EVHUYH WKDW IRU KLJKZD\V DQG PRWRUZD\V  SURYLQFLDO URDGV WKH IL[HG FRVWV RI FRQ

VWUXFWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFH DQG ODQG XVH DUH KLJKHVW IRU EXVVHV EHFDXVH RI WKHLU UHODWLYHO\ ODUJH3&(¶V,QIDFWGLIIHUHQFHVLQFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHEHWZHHQWUDQVSRUWPRGHVFDQEH

H[DFWO\WUDFHGEDFNWRGLIIHUHQFHVLQ3&(¶V2SHUDWLRQFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHDUHHTXDOIRU DOOWUDQVSRUWPRGHVDWLGHQWLFDOURDGW\SHVEHFDXVHWKH\WKHVHFRVWVDOORFDWHGRQWKHED

VLVRIYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVRQO\)XUWKHUPRUHFRVWVWKDWDUHDOORFDWHGXVLQJWK SRZHUD[OH ORDGV EHLQJ YDULDEOH FRVWV RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH DUH DOORFDWHG SUHGRPL QDQWO\WREXVVHVDQGWRXULQJFDUV

7DEOH&RVWVRI'XWFKKLJKZD\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRU'XWFKIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW LQ ¼FWSHU9NP &RQVWUXF &RQVWUXF 0DLQWH 2SHUDWLRQ &RVWVRI 7RWDO 7RWDO WLRQFRVWV WLRQFRVWV QDQFH FRVWV ODQGXVH )L[HG 9DULDEOH   FRVWV &RVWV &RVWV 7UXFNVRORWRQ ±        ±        ±        7UXFNVROR!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        7UXFNFRPELQDWLRQ!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        7UDFWRUZLWKWUDLOHU!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±       

)RUPXQLFLSDOURDGVWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGUHVXOWVGRQRWGLUHFWO\VKRZLQWKHUHVXOWVEH

FDXVHDOORFDWLRQRIPXQLFLSDOURDG FRVWVLVPRUHFRPSOH[WKDQDOORFDWLRQIRUWKHRWKHU

WZR URDG W\SHV VHH 6HFWLRQ  DQG 7/1   )L[HG FRVWV RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDLQWH QDQFHRSHUDWLRQDQGODQGXVHIRUPXQLFLSDOURDGVDUHKLJKHUIRUSDVVHQJHUFDUVDQGGH

OLYHU\YDQVEXWDOVRIRUVPDOOHUWUXFNV VHH6HFWLRQ 9DULDEOHFRVWVDUHVWLOOODUJHO\ DOORFDWHGWREXVVHVEXWFRVWVIRUGHOLYHU\YDQVDUHDOVRVXEVWDQWLDODWPXQLFLSDOURDGV 

&RVWVRIIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW

2XUSULPDU\LQWHUHVWLQWKLVVWXG\LVFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHRIIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW7DEOHVWR

SUHVHQWWKHUHVXOWVIRUKLJKZD\VPRWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGVDQGPXQLFLSDOURDGV UHVSHFWLYHO\

7DEOH&RVWVRI'XWFKPRWRUZD\ SURYLQFLDOURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRU'XWFKIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW LQ¼FWSHU9NP &RQVWUXF &RQVWUXF 0DLQWH 2SHUDWLRQ &RVWVRI 7RWDO 7RWDO WLRQFRVWV WLRQFRVWV QDQFH FRVWV ODQGXVH )L[HG 9DULDEOH   FRVWV &RVWV &RVWV 7UXFNVRORWRQ ±        ±        ±        7UXFNVROR!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        7UXFNFRPELQDWLRQ!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        7UDFWRUZLWKWUDLOHU!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±       

$VDOUHDG\PHQWLRQHGFRVWVIRUOLJKWWUXFNVDUHUHODWLYHO\KLJKDWPXQLFLSDOURDGV&RVWV

IRU KHDY\ WUXFNV DW PXQLFLSDO URDGV DUH ORZ UHODWLYH WR FRVWV IRU KHDY\ WUXFNV DW RWKHU

URDGV7KHUHDVRQIRUWKHODWWHULVWKDWKHDY\WUXFNVPDNHXVHRIRQO\DVPDOOSDUWRIWKH PXQLFLSDOURDGQHWZRUNDQGGRQRWJHWDOORFDWHGWKHFRVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSDUWRIWKH QHWZRUNWKH\GRQRWPDNHXVHRI

7DEOH&RVWVRI'XWFKPXQLFLSDOURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRU'XWFKIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW LQ ¼FWSHU 9NP &RQVWUXF &RQVWUXF 0DLQWH 2SHUDWLRQ &RVWVRI 7RWDO 7RWDO WLRQFRVWV WLRQFRVWV QDQFH FRVWV ODQGXVH )L[HG 9DULDEOH   FRVWV &RVWV &RVWV 7UXFNVRORWRQ ±        ±        ±        7UXFNVROR!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        7UXFNFRPELQDWLRQ!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        7UDFWRUZLWKWUDLOHU!WRQ ±        ±        ±        ±        ±        ±       

7KHPDLQGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQXQGHUO\LQJVWXG\DQGHDUOLHUVWXGLHVRQDOORFDWLRQRIFRVWV

RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH WR WUDQVSRUW VHH &(  DQG 7/1   LV WKDW WKLV VWXG\ GLVWLQ JXLVKHVEHWZHHQDODUJHQXPEHURIZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVZLWKLQIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW7KHFRQ

VHTXHQFHVDUHVWULNLQJ/DUJHO\EHFDXVHRIWKHWK SRZHUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQD[OHORDGDQG

URDGGDPDJHLQZKLFKD[OHFRQILJXUDWLRQLVDOVRDFFRXQWHGIRUFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHIRU KHDYLHU WUXFN FDWHJRULHV DUH VXEVWDQWLDOO\ KLJKHU WKDQ FRVWV IRU OLJKW HU  WUXFNV (VSH

FLDOO\ FRVWVIRUVRORWUXFNVIURPWRDQG IURPWRWRQPD[LPXP ZHLJKW DUH

KLJK5HODWLYHWRRWKHUKHDY\WUXFNFDWHJRULHVFRVWVIRUWKHVHWZRWUXFNW\SHVDSSHDUWR EHKLJKEHFDXVHRIWKHLUKLJKDYHUDJHORDGVDQGUHODWLYHO\IHZD[OHV

)XUWKHUPRUHUHJDUGLQJIL[HGFRVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQPDLQWHQDQFH DQG ODQG XVH RI KLJK ZD\VDQGPRWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGVZHFDQREVHUYHWKHVDPHSDWWHUQDVZLWKSDV VHQJHUWUDQVSRUW7KDWLVGLIIHUHQFHVLQFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUHEHWZHHQWUDQVSRUWPRGHVFDQ

EH WUDFHG EDFN WR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ 3&( ZKLOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ RSHUDWLRQ FRVWV EHWZHHQ WUDQVSRUWPRGHVDWLGHQWLFDOURDGW\SHVGRQRWH[LVWEHFDXVHWKHVHFRVWVDUHDOORFDWHGRQ WKHEDVLVRIYHKLFOHNLORPHWUHVRQO\5HPHPEHUWKDWDVPHQWLRQHGLQ6HFWLRQ,,,FRVWV RI IRUHLJQ WUXFNV RQ KLJKZD\V DUH LGHQWLFDO WR FRVWV IRU GRPHVWLF WUXFNV RQ KLJKZD\V

EHFDXVH 3&( WUXFNORDGV WUXFN ZHLJKW DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI YHKLFOH NLORPHWUHV DUH DV VXPHGWREHHTXDO7KHUHIRUHZHGRQRWSUHVHQWWKHFRVWVIRUIRUHLJQWUXFNVVHSDUDWHO\

5HJDUGLQJ FRVWV RI PXQLFLSDO URDGV WKH DERYH PHQWLRQHG UHVXOWV KROG EXW LGHQWLFDO WR

WKH UHVXOWV IRU SDVVHQJHU WUDQVSRUW WKH HIIHFWV GR QRW GLUHFWO\ VKRZ LQ WKH UHVXOWV VHH

7DEOH $VPHQWLRQHGEHIRUHDFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHDOORFDWLRQPHWKRGIRUPXQLFLSDO

URDGFRVWVLVWKDWOLJKWWUXFNVHVSHFLDOO\WKHWUXFNVRORWRQJHWDOORFDWHGH[WUHPHO\ KLJKFRVWVSHUNLORPHWUH7KLVUHVXOWUDLVHVWKHTXHVWLRQZKHWKHUKHPHWKRGRIDOORFDWLQJ PXQLFLSDOURDGFRVWVLVFRUUHFWRUQHHGV FUXFLDO DGDSWDWLRQV 

&RQFOXVLRQVDQGVXJJHVWLRQVIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK

7KLV VWXG\ DOORFDWHV FRVWV RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFH RSHUDWLRQ DQG

ODQGXVHRIKLJKZD\VPRWRUZD\V SURYLQFLDOURDGVDQGPXQLFLSDOURDGVWRSDVVHQJHU DQGIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW:KHUHDVHDUOLHUVWXGLHV VHH&(DQG7/1 GLVWLQJXLVK

EHWZHHQWUXFNVOHVVDQGPRUHWKDQWRQRQO\WKLVVWXG\GLVFHUQVDPXOWLWXGHRIWUXFN ZHLJKW FDWHJRULHV ,Q JHQHUDO WKH UHVXOW VKRZ WKDW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ IL[HG FRVWV LQ ¼NP FDQ EH WUDFHG EDFN WR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ 3DVVHQJHU &DU (TXLYDOHQWV )XUWKHUPRUH YDULDEOH FRVWHVWLPDWHVIRUGLIIHUHQWWUDQVSRUWPRGHVVKRZODUJHYDULDWLRQ6LQFHWKHVHFRVWVDUH

PDLQO\ DOORFDWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI WK SRZHU D[OH ORDGV KHDY\ WUXFNV JHW DOORFDWHG VXE

VWDQWLDOO\ KLJKHU FRVWV WKDQ OLJKW HU  WUXFNV :H FDQ WKHUHIRUH FRQFOXGH WKDW ZKHQ IHZ ZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHGVXFKDVLQ&(  DQG7/1  DVXEVWDQWLDO DPRXQWRIWKHFRVWVFDXVHGE\KHDY\WUXFNVZLOOEHDOORFDWHGWROLJKWWUXFNV

$IHZDQQRWDWLRQVDQGVXJJHVWLRQVIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKDUHLQRUGHUKRZHYHU1RWHWKDW

WKHUHVXOWVDUHDOVRLQIOXHQFHGE\GLIIHUHQFHVLQDYHUDJHORDGVEHWZHHQWUXFNFDWHJRULHV

EDVHGRQGDWDIURP7KHTXHVWLRQLVZKHWKHUWKHVHGDWDDFFXUDWHO\UHSUHVHQWDFWXDO

DQGFRQWHPSRUDU\GLIIHUHQFHVLQDYHUDJHWUXFNORDGV)XUWKHUPRUHEDVHGRQDVWXG\E\

'+9  RIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVLVDOORFDWHGRQWKHEDVLVRI3&(ZKLOHLV DOORFDWHGXVLQJWK SRZHUD[OHORDGV6LQFHWKLVVWXG\PD\QRWEHXSWRGDWHDQGGRHVQRW GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW URDG W\SHV WKH FDOFXODWLRQV PD\ KDYH LQDFFXUDFLHV )L

QDOO\ WKH WK SRZHU UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ URDG GDPDJH DQG YDULDEOH FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV LV

ZLGHO\ DFFHSWHG DQG XVHG +RZHYHU ZH NQRZ RI QR VWXGLHV WKDW GLVWLQJXLVK DV PDQ\ ZHLJKW FDWHJRULHV DV LV GRQH LQ XQGHUO\LQJ VWXG\ 3UHFLVHO\ WKLV GLVWLQFWLRQ FDXVHV WKH ODUJHGLIIHUHQFHVLQFRVWHVWLPDWHV,VWKHWK SRZHUUHODWLRQFRUUHFWDQGZKHQIHZZHLJKW FDWHJRULHVDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHGOLJKWWUXFNVJHWDOORFDWHGFRVWVWKDWDUH IDU WRRKLJK,WLV DOVRSRVVLEOHWKDWZKHQWKLVPDQ\ZHLJKWFDWHJRULHVDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHGWKHWK SRZHUUH

ODWLRQEUHDNVGRZQHVSHFLDOO\IRUWKHKHDYLHVWWUXFNFDWHJRULHV6LQFHLWLVFUXFLDOIRUWKH PDJQLWXGHRIFRVWHVWLPDWHVIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKLVUHTXLUHGLQWRWKHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQURDG GDPDJHDQGD[OHORDGV

1RWHV   

&(  98  DQG7/1  GLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQWUXFNVEHORZDQGDERYHWRQRQO\ 6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV VHHKWWSZZZFEVQO 

)RULQVWDQFHKHDY\WUXFNVPDNHUHODWLYHO\PRUHXVHRIPDLQPXQLFLSDOURDGVWKDQGROLJKWGHOLYHU\YDQV

WKDWDOVRPDNHXVHRIWKHVPDOOHUURDGVLQDPXQLFLSDOURDGQHWZRUN 

7KH7/1  PHWKRGDFFRXQWVQH[WWRVL]HRIDYHKLFOHIRUWKHWLPHLWWDNHVIRUDYHKLFOHWRFRPHWR

DIXOOVWRSDIWHUKLWWLQJWKHEUHDNVDWGLIIHUHQWVSHHGV6LQFH&(  DFFRXQWVIRUVL]HRIDYHKLFOHRQO\ ZKLFKLVSODXVLEOHZKHQDOORFDWLQJFRVWVRISDUNLQJDUHDVDQGVSDFHVZHSUHIHUWKHPHWKRGRI7/1 

1RWLQFOXGHGLQWKLVVWXG\EXWZRUWKPHQWLRQLQJLVWKDW FRVWVRI LQGLUHFWODQG XVH IRUVKLSVDUHKLJK



(XURSHDQJXLGHOLQHVVWDWHWKDWWUXFNVGULYLQJDEURDGQHHGRQO\SD\FRVWVRINLORPHWUHVGULYHQRQKLJK

EHFDXVHRIIUHHVLJKW]RQHVQH[WDORQJVLGHVKLSSLQJURXWHVHVSHFLDOO\LQVLGHWKHXUEDQDUHD 98  ZD\VLQIRUHLJQFRXQWULHV

5HIHUHQFHV &%6   9HHUWLJMDUHQYHUNHHUVHQYHUYRHUVVWDWLVWLHN )RUW\\HDUVRIWUDIILFDQGWUDQVSRUW VWDWLVWLFV 6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV9RRUEXUJ+HHUOHQ &%6      6WDWLVWLHN GHU ZHJHQ URDG VWDWLVWLFV  6WDWLVWLFV 1HWKHUODQGV 9RRUEXUJ+HHUOHQ &%6  6WDWLVWLHNYDQKHWELQQHQODQGVJRHGHUHQYHUYRHU 6WDWLVWLFVRIGRPHVWLFIUHLJKW WUDQVSRUW 6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV9RRUEXUJ+HHUOHQ &%6  6WDWLVWLHNYDQKHWJRHGHUHQYHUYRHU 6WDWLVWLFVRIIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW  6WDWLVWLFV 1HWKHUODQGV9RRUEXUJ+HHUOHQ &(  (IILFLs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±  1DWLRQDO 7UDIILF DQG7UDQVSRUW3ODQ 0LQLVWU\RI7UDQVSRUW3XEOLF:RUNVDQG:DWHU0DQDJ H PHQW'HQ+DDJ 0LQLVWHULH 9 :   0HHUMDUHQSURJUDPPD ,QYHVWHULQJHQ 7UDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXXU /RQJ WHUPSURJUDPPHRQLQYHVWPHQWVLQWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUH 0LQLVWU\RI7UDQVSRUW3XEOLF :RUNVDQG:DWHU0DQDJHPHQW'HQ+DDJ 1($   %DVLVJHJHYHQV NLORPHWHUKHIILQJ %DVH GDWD NLORPHWUH FKDUJLQJ  1($ 7UDQVSRUW 5HVHDUFKDQG7UDLQLQJ5LMVZLMN 562   9XLVWNHQJHWDOOHQ YRRU GH NRVWHQLQGLFDWLH LQ GH RQWZHUSIDVH  &HQWUDO QXPEHUV IRU FRVW LQGLFDWLRQV LQ WKH GHVLJQ SKDVH   5LMNVZDWHUVWDDW 6WHXQSXQW 2S GUDFKWJHYHUVFKDS8WUHFKW '+9   .RVWHQRS KHWVSRRU NRVWHQ LQIUDVWUXFWXXU RQGHU]RHN 16 *RHGHUHQYHUYRHU HHQ DIOHLGLQJRSEDVLVYDQ FRQFXUUHUHQGH YHUYRHUZLM]HQ 5DLOFRVWVFRVWVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHRI 'XWFK5DLOZD\V)UHLJKW7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFKDGHULYDWLRQRQWKHEDVLVRIFRPSHWLQJWUDQ V SRUWPRGHV 7HERGLQ'+9$PHUVIRRUW'HQ+DDJ 7.6*   9DVWVWHOOLQJYDQGH EHJURWLQJYDQGH XLWJDYHQHQGHRQWYDQJVWHQYDQ KHW,QIUD VWUXFWXXUIRQGVYRRUKHWMDDU 'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHEXGJHWRIH[SHQGLWXUHVDQGUHYH QXHVRIWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIXQGIRU 7ZHHGH.DPHUGHU6WDWHQ*HQHUDDO 3DUOLDPHQW  'HQ+DDJ 7/1   7UDQVSRUW LQ FLMIHUV 7UDQVSRUWLQILJXUHV 7UDQVSRUW DQG /RJLVWLFV 1HWKHUODQGV =RHWHUPHHU 7/1   *HOLMNH PRQQLNHQ JHOLMNH NDSSHQ :KDW LV VDXFH IRU WKH JRRVH LV VDXFH IRU WKH JDQGHU 7UDQVSRUWDQG/RJLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV=RHWHUPHHU 98   5DPLQJ PDDWVFKDSSHOLMNH NRVWHQ YDQ UXLPWHJHEUXLN GRRU KHW YHUNHHU HIILFLsQWH SULM]HQ YRRU KHW YHUNHHU (VWLPDWLRQ RI VRFLDO FRVWV RI ODQG XVH E\ WUDQVSRUW HIILFLHQW WUDQVSRUWSULFHV 'HSDUWPHQWRI6SDWLDO(FRQRPLFV)UHH8QLYHUVLW\$ PVWHUGDP 98   ,QIUDVWUXFWXXUNRVWHQ YDQ KHW JRHGHUHQZHJYHUNHHU HHQ YHUNHQQLQJ RS EDVLV YDQ EHVFKLNEDUHJHJHYHQV &RVWVRIURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHRIIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWDQH[SORUDWLRQRQ WKH EDVLV RI DYDLODEOH GDWD  'HSDUWPHQW RI 6SDWLDO (FRQRPLFV )UHH 8QLYHUVLW\ $PVWH U GDP