Introduction to Central Asia. By Rob Kevlihan ... âBully boyâ of the region. Human rights and the threat of ... excluded from Asia strategy and very low aid priority.
Introduction to Central Asia By Rob Kevlihan Presented at the Centre for International Studies, Dublin City University, April 2006
Overview Comprises five states of the former USSR including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Strategically placed between Russia, China, Iran and Afghanistan Asian region that was formerly part of the Soviet Union
Population Characteristics Uzbekistan the largest in population terms (26.85m, 45% of total Central Asian pop.), Kazakhstan (15.19m, 26%), Tajikistan (7.16m, 12%), Kyrgyzstan (5.15m, 9%) and Turkmenistan (4.95 million, 8%). Kazakhstan largest geographically Large concentration of population in the Ferghana valley split between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
Population Characteristics Arbitrary state boundaries established by Stalin‟s nationality polices in 1920s and 30s. Significant ethnic minorities in most Central Asian states – from within the region and from other parts of the former USSR
Political Overview All states became independent at break-up of USSR in 1991 Heads of Communist parties typically took over in 1991 (exception Tajikistan) Need for stability emphasized – to avoid example of Tajik Civil War Former Communist party heads remain in control in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
Continuities in Governance “Sovietism”: bureaucracy, patronage, localism and centralization. governance was divided between two different spheres of concern one relating to strategy, security, military and state ideology that was controlled by Moscow and another relating to appointments of local cadres, distribution of power and economic perks that was controlled by indigenous leaders, with the frontier between the two constantly shifting (Oliver Roy).
Governance Arrangements Political institutions typically reflect Presidential systems – highly centralized Patronage networks often where real power and influence lies (Shadow states, organized crime) Concern for democratic veneer – though free and fair elections still a goal to be attained
Development Status UNDP Human Development Indicators rank countries from 1 to 177, 1 being the best off. Kazakhstan, the best off, has a ranking of 80; Turkmenistan second best at 97 Tajikistan is the worst off (ranked 122), followed by Uzbekistan (111) and Kyrgyzstan (109) All are medium developed states – only country worse off than Tajikistan in CIS is Moldova
Kazakhstan Oil rich state Large Russian minority Combination of civic and ethnonationalist state building project Government dominated by President and surrounding cliques Geographically vulnerable but plays cards well
Uzbekistan Largest population but only third largest state, and large Uzbek minorities in other states Some natural resources – mostly gas „Bully boy‟ of the region Human rights and the threat of Islamic extremism Geo-strategic games – US versus Russia
Turkmenistan Extensive natural resources – especially gas Small population, tribally based „Turkmenbashi‟ – cult of personality and arbitrary rule Neutral international posture Human Rights concerns
Kyrgyzstan Mountainous, resource poor state Acts as major water shed for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Had been one of the better governed Recent political instability – legacy of the Tulip „revolution‟ Regional tensions – north versus south
Tajikistan Poorest state in the region – extremely mountainous, and most underdeveloped Large scale economic migration of Tajiks to other states, including Russia Legacy of civil war – weak state structures, poor infrastructure On-going regional tensions despite control of state by Kulyabi elite Something of a client state to Russia
International Relations and Central Asian Themes Mineral wealth – oil and gas and pipeline politics Russian „Near Abroad‟, US influence and role of China Human rights and democratization Water management – decline of the Aral Sea Economic reform War on Terror and threat of Islamic extremism
Ireland and Central Asia Region largely ignored by Irish policy makers – excluded from Asia strategy and very low aid priority Relations managed from Irish embassy in Moscow Broadly support democratization, economic transition and stability OSCE major vehicle for engagement Some Irish business interests in Turkmenistan
Ireland and Central Asia Small signs of increased Irish interest Irish election monitors in Kazakhstan in 2005 election EU sanctions imposed against Uzbekistan for human rights violations Irish Aid commitment to review geographical funding priorities of Balkans and CIS Funding scheme
Resources International Crisis Group Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty www.ferghana.ru www.registan.net Frontline Defenders www.frontlinedefenders.org SOAS Library in London
Selected Authors Pauline Jones Luong, Dawaisha and Parrott (Central Asia in general / transitions in region) Martha Brill Olcott, Bhana Dave, Edward Schatz, Pauline Jones Luong, Sally Cummings (Kazakhstan) Shirin Akiner, Muriel Atkin (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)
Selected Authors Edward Allworth, Resul Yalsin (Uzbekistan) Adrienne Lynn Edgar (Turkmenistan) Good general reads The Great Game, Peter Hopkirk The Land Beyond the River, Monica Whitlock
Note: Sources Maps presented in this presentation were accessed on line from the following sites: Political Map: http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwea lth/caucasus_cntrl_asia_pol_2003.jpg Population density and Population groups: http://www.envsec.org Others are accessible at www.cia.gov
