Jan 31, 2012 ... Hydrology used in Hydraulic Analysis. ▫ Recurrence Interval - actual number of
years between floods. ▫ 100-year flood – 1% chance in a year.
Hydrology for Floodplain Analysis
Presented by Z. John Licsko, PE, CFM
Global Water Cycle – Hydrological Analysis Distribution and movement of water on, above and below earth surface in liquid, vapor, & solid states – Hydrologic Cycle Conservation of Mass: Inflow (I) – Outflow (O) = ± Change in storage (S)
Watershed Scale Hydrologic Processes
Initial Abstractions (up to 4 inches under healthy forest stands) Infiltration - Function of soil texture, thickness and structure – highest rates usually found under forested areas Depression Storage – ability to store water on the soil surface – again forested soils Interception/Evapo-Transpiration Baseflow – perennial flow Interflow – shallow subsurface flows Surface Runoff - water that is not infiltrated or or otherwise stored.
Floodplain Analysis Methodology Hydrology Collect Stream Gage Data (annual peak) Gage Analysis Regression Analysis( (ungaged sites) Rainfall Runoff Models (calibrated to gage
data, discharges based on rainfall)
Analyze Data – Probability, Statistics
Watershed Scale – Flood Study Hydrology, Ungaged Sites
USGS – New York StreamStats
USGS – New York StreamStats Results
USGS Gage Locations
Discharge Measurements
Flooding in Natural Streams Unsteady Flow Mixed flow regime (sub-critical, critical
and super critical)
Non homogeneous fluid (air and
sediment mixes with water)
Floating debris
Hydrology – Hydraulics and Floodplain Mapping Process
Hydrology
Hydraulics
Floodplain
Hydrology used in Hydraulic Analysis Recurrence Interval - actual number of years between floods 100-year flood – 1% chance in a year 500-year flood – 0.2% chance in a year 10, 25 and 50 year profiles Purely Statistical Designation
…there can be multiple 100-year floods in a given year…
Limitations on the use of Regression Equations Regulated Watersheds Overbank Storage – Swamps/Wetlands Drainage Area Outside Recommended Limits Recently Developed Watersheds Need for in-depth Hydrologic Analysis (i.e. urban
areas)
Ignores difference in watershed shapes
Applicable FEMA Publications FEMA Guidelines and Standards for Flood Hazard Mapping Partners Volume 1: Flood Studies and Mapping Appendix I: Discovery Appendix C: Guidance for Riverine Flooding Analyses and Mapping
FEMA Procedure Memorandum 59, Guidance for Implementation of Watershed-Based Studies,
Selection of suitable hydrologic methods
Methodology
Suitability
Gage Analysis
At gage locations/ sufficient length of record
Regression Equations
Watershed Models
Ungauged locations, unregulated watersheds Regulated/ Urbanized watersheds. Calibration is needed
Guidelines for Riverine Flooding Analysis & Mapping - Appendix C, FEMA, Nov, 2009
Approved Methodologies Gage Analysis (Preferred) Uses observed annual peak discharge from USGS and other gage locations Data is analyzed using statistical procedures outlined in “Bulletin 17B” also
referred to as a LPIII analysis (PeakFQ program is used)
Need a minimum of 10 years of homogeneous data Can be transferred upstream and downstream of the gage location
Regression Ungaged locations Multiple regression analysis Usually published by USGS (For NY this SIR 2006-5122, includes data to 1999)
Approved Methodologies Continued Rainfall Runoff Modeling Usually HEC-HMS or HEC-1 FEMA’s accepted models list includes a number of others
Esopus Watershed has two examples of Effective Rainfall Models Stony Clove in Greene County -TR20 Esopus – HEC-1 Both have use old TP-40 rainfall totals
Esopus Rainfall Runoff Model (HEC-HMS)
Reasons to Revise Existing Hydrologic Analysis Reflect Longer periods of record or data revisions Effective hydrology on part of the Esopus (calibrated HEC-1- 1 gage, new model use 6 gages ) and Stony Clove in Green County (TR-20 1982, probably uncalibrated since little or no gage data (approximate in Ulster County also gaged. ( HEC-HMS rainfall change (Cornell data updates to TP-40), more gages,
Reflect changed physical conditions For example, construction of a dam
To take advantage of improved hydrologic analysis HEC-HMS
To correct an error in the effective hydrologic analysis
Important Riverine Floodplain Terms 100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN- area subject inundation during a 100-
year flood
FLOODWAY- channel and adjacent areas reserved to discharge
the 100-year flood without cumulatively increasing water surface elevation more than a foot
ENCROACHMENT- man-made obstruction to natural conveyance
of flood waters
SURCHARGE - increase in flood elevation due to destruction of
floodplain conveyance capacity
Riverine Flood Plain, Floodway Schematic
Runoff
Runoff
Questions?