Is it time for a manned mission to Mars?

ANALYSIS

Is it time for a manned mission to Mars?

AUTHORs Toby Samuels and Natasha Nicholson, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Edinburgh. Website NASA’s Journey to Mars http://www.nasa.gov/content/nasasjourney-to-mars

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n 2 December 2014, NASA released its misrespectively, compared to the shuttle and ISS prosion timeline “Journey to Mars”, out­lining grammes, with combined costs of $182 bn so far. As approaches to a manned mission to Mars an example of current robotic missions, India’s Mars by the 2030s. This rousing vision stirred up exciteOrbiter Mission cost just $73 m. ment, but little discussion of a key question: is now The high cost and high risk of a manned mission the right time to start a manned mission to Mars? to Mars suggested that sending cheaper robotic The University of Edinburgh hosted a debate on this missions to a range of locations on Mars made question in August 2015, among PhD students and more sense. Their data could make possible a better postdocs. manned mission at a later stage. Exploration robotics The “for” argument suggested that a project of has developed at staggering speed over the past two this scale needs a sense of urgency. In 1961, NASA decades, from the one scientific instrument on board was only three years old when President Kennedy the 1997 Mars Sojourner rover, weighing in at 10.6 kg, delivered a speech galvanizing US space exploration; to the nine on the 2012 Mars Curiosity rover (889 kg). men stood on the Moon just eight years later. Today Future technological developments will bring we lack a Cold War to propel a competitive space bigger, better and more sophisticated robots. An programme; we need a set timeline if upcoming groundbreaking mission ‘‘The only way to truly we plan to get people to Mars. is ExoMars, which will drill 2 m into test technology for the martian crust. Sending more and Costs and benefits martian habitation is better robots to Mars was proposed as The argument in favour acknowlto go there’’ a better way to spend money. edged that a manned mission to Mars Once the debate was open to the would be costly ($100–250 bn), but insisted that the floor, the audience raised valuable points, including productivity-to-cost ratio would be much higher that waiting for more information will always be than for a robotic mission. Steve Squyres, principal proposed by the cautious. Manned missions to other investigator of the Mars Exploration Mission, was locations, such as establishing a base on the Moon, quoted as saying: “I could have completed Opporwere proposed as better starting points, resulting in tunity’s initial 90-day mission in 20 minutes.” The better technology for Mars. Others countered that rover Opportunity had, by March 2015, travelled the only way to truly test technology for martian 42.2 km in 11 years. Such distances could be covered, habitation and colonization is to go there. surveyed and sampled by a team of astronauts in Amid fierce debate, some points were agreed. a week or two. There would also be an enormous First, the impact of a manned mission will always amount learned on a manned mission. The new trump a robotic one. The presence of humans on systems and the solutions to technical challenges Mars simply cannot be replicated. Secondly, despite would be useful on Earth and for future explorathe many risks involved in a manned mission, tion. Finally, a human presence can provide us with including death, it is a venture worth aspiring to. information and insights that robots simply can’t; Changing minds? Harrison Schmitt of the Apollo missions said of After two hours of debate, the votes were tallied. Moon dust: “Everyone’s instant impression of the At the beginning of the talk, 15 had voted for the smell was that of spent gun­powder, not that it was NASA plan, five against. Three people changed their ‘metallic’ or ‘acrid’.” Such observations engage those minds, two moving to oppose the plan and one to of us who will never leave the planet. support it. The majority of the room remained in Next up was the counterargument, which demonfavour. It is still early days for NASA’s Journey to strated at once that robotic missions have provided Mars programme, and it will surely undergo many a great deal of science for significantly less. Historichanges and adaptions before humans are sent to cal costs of manned missions, compared to current the Red Planet. However, the tide of opinion here in costs of robotic missions Edinburgh, at least, is right behind them. ● (adjusted to 2010 US$), include the MER and Artist’s impression of a Mars lander. Mars One is a non-governMSL missions, at mental initiative planning to send humans in 2026. (Mars One) $0.95 bn and $2.5 bn

A&G • December 2015 • Vol. 56 • www.astrongeo.com

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Toby Samuels and Natasha Nicholson report on a debate over the pros and cons of turning humans into martians.