The Springer-Verlag Lecture Notes provide rapid (approximately six months),
refereed ... Dept. of Civil Engineering, Princeton University. Princeton ...
Hydrology:.
Lecture Notes in Engineering The Springer-Verlag Lecture Notes provide rapid (approximately six months), refereed publication of topical items, longer than ordinary journal articles but shorter and less formal than most monographs and textbooks. They are published in an attractive yet economical forma~ authors or editors provide manuscripts typed to specifications, ready for photo-reproduction.
The Editorial Board
Managing Editors C. A Brebbia Computational Mechanics Institute Ashurst Lodge, Ashurst Southampton S04 2AA (UK)
Consulting Editors Chemical Engineering: J. H. Seinfeld Dept. of Chemical Engg., Spaulding Bldg. Calif. Inst. of Technology Pasadena, CA 91125 (USA) Dynamics and Vibrations: P'Spanos Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Rice University P. O. Box 1892 Houston, Texas 77251 (USA) Earthquake Engineering: AS. Cakmak Dept. of Civil Engineering, Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544 (USA) Electrical 'Engineering: P. Silvester Dept. of Electrical Engg., McGill University 3480 University Street Montreal, PO H3A 2A7 (Canada) Geotechnical Engineering and Geomechanics: C.S.Desai College of Engineering Dept. of Civil Engg. and Engg. Mechanics The University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 (USA) Hydrology: G. Pinder School of Engineering, Dept. of Civil Engg. Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544 (USA) Laser Fusion - Plasma: R. McCrory Lab. for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester Rochester, NY 14627 (USA)
S.AOrszag Applied and Computational Mathematics 218 Fine Hall Princeton, NJ 08544 (USA)
Materials Science and Computer Simulation: S. Vip
Dept. of Nuclear Engg., MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 (USA) Mechanics of Materials: FA Leckie Dept. of Mechanical Engineering Univ. of California Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (USA) A. R. S. Po nter
Dept. of Engineering, The University Leicester LE1 7RH (UK) Fluid Mechanics: K.-P' Holz Inst. fur Stromungsmechanik, Universitat Hannover, Callinstr. 32 0-3000 Hannover 1 (FRG) Nonlinear Mechanics: K-J. Bathe Dept. of Mechanical Engg., MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 (USA) Structural Engineering: J. Connor Dept. of Civil Engineering, MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 (USA)
w. Wunderlich
Inst. fUr Konstruktiven Ingenieurbau Ruhr-Universitat Bochum Universitatsstr.150, 0-4639 Bochum-Ouerenburg (FRG)
Structural Engineering, Fluids and Thermodynamics: J. Argyris Inst. fUr Statik und Dynamik der Luft- und Raumfahrtkonstruktion Pfaffenwaldring 27 0-7000 Stuttgart 80 (FRG)
Lecture Notes in Engineering Edited by C. A. Brebbia and S. A. Orszag
~~
~.
IFIP
48
P. Thoft-Christensen (Editor)
Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems '88 Proceedings of the 2nd IFIP WG7.S Conference London, UK, September 26-28, 1988
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong
Series Editors C. A. Brebbia . S. A. Orszag Consulting Editors J. Argyris . K.-J. Bathe· A. S. Cakmak . J. Connor . R. McCrory C. S. Desai . K.-P. Holz . F. A. Leckie . G. Pinder . A. R. S. Pont J. H. Seinfeld . P. Silvester· P. Spanos . W. Wunderlich . S. Vip Editor P. Thoft-Christensen Institute of Building Technology and Structural Engineering The University of Aalborg Sohngaardsholmsvej 57 DK-9000 Aalborg Denmark
ISBN-13:978-3-540-51283-7
e-ISBN-13:978-3-642-83828-6
DO I: 10.1 007/978-3-642-83828-6 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9,1965, in its version of June 24, 1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law.
© International Federation for Information Processing, Geneva, Switzerland, 1989 The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
216113020-543210
PREFACE The Proceedings contain 30 papers presented at the 2nd Working Conference on "Relia.bility and Optimization of Structural Systems" , London, UK, September 26 - 28, 1988. The Working conference was organized by the IFIP Working Group 7.5. The Proceedings also include 3 papers which were submitted, but for various reasons not presented at the Working Conference. The Working Conference was attended by 47 participants from 15 countries. The Conference was the second scientific meeting of a new IFIP Working Group 7.5 on "Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems". The purpose of the Working Group 7.5 is • • • • •
to promote modern structural system optimization and reliability theory, to advance international cooperation in the field of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to stimulate research, development and application of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to further the dissemination and exchange of information on reliability and optimization of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to encourage education in structural system optimization and reliability theory.
At present the members of the Working Group are:
A. H. S. Ang, USA G. Augmti, Italy M. J. Baker, United Kingdom P. Bjerager, Norway A. Der Kiureghian, USA o. Ditlev"en, Denmark D. M. Frangopol, USA S. Garribba, Italy
M. R. Gorman, USA M. Grimmelt, Germany, F. R. N. C. Lind, Canada H. O. Mad"en, Denmark F. MO$e$, USA Y. Murol$u, Japan R. Rac/cwitz, Germany F. R. P. Thojt-Chn"tensen, Denmark (Chairman)
Members of the organizing committee are:
M. J. Baker, United Kingdom (Conference Organizer) R. Rackwitz, Germany F. R. P. Thojt-Chn"temen, Denmark (Conference Director) The Conference was financially supported by IFIP, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, and The University of Aalborg.
IV
On behalf of TC7 and WG 7.5 I would like to thank Michael J. Baker for his excellent organization of the Working Conference. I would also like to thank the organizing committee members for their valuable help in organizing the Working Conference, and all the authors for preparing papers for the Proceedings. Special thanks to Mrs. Kirsten Aakjrer, University of Aalborg, for her efficient work as Conference secretary before, during and after the institute.
December 1988
P. Thoft-Christensen
CONTENTS Time-Variant Reliability Analysis Utilizing Response Surface Approach C. G. Bucher, Y. M. Chen, G. 1. Schueller
. . . 1
Iterative Elastic and Plastic Optimal Design of Steel Frames by a Mixed Method Including Double Secant Method for Nonlinear Mathematical Programming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Chang-Ping Chiou, T,ung- Wu Lin, Jenn-Rong Wu Reliability Approach to the Design, Construction and Use of Natural Draught Cooling Towers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tadewz Chmielewd:i, Marian Golczyk
27
Perception of Risks and Reactions to Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 F. ValCO COlta A New Monte Carlo Technique in Structural Reliability with a Plastic Frame Example. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Attila C,enki On Spatial Correlation of Nodal Wave Forces in System Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rabi S. De, Alhilh Karamchandani, Peter Bjerager, C. Allin Corn ell Collapse Probability for Elasto-Plastic Beam Structures . . . . . M. V. Delmar, J. D. Sprcmen, P. Thoft-Chmtemen
65 85
Stochastic Wave Loads for Reliability Analyses of Jacket Structures . . . . 101 M. Dogliani, R. Cazzulo Excursion Probabilities of Non-Homogeneous Gaussian Scalar Fields Based on Maxima Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 M. Faber, R. Rackwitz Optimization of Structural Systems under Reserve and Residual Reliability Requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Dan M. FTangopol, Gongkang Fu Structural Reliability Analysis of Floating Offshore Structure . Joo-Sung Lee
. 147
Double Secant Method for Nonlinear Mathematical Programming . . . . . 163 T,ung- Wu Lin Improving the Acceptability of Reliability-Based Safety Factors for the Design of Structural Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 W. Mannerl
VI
Reliability Concept Applied to Optimum Configuration of Fibrous Composites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M. Miki, Y. Murouu, T. Tanaka, S. Shao On a Reliability-Based Shape Optimization of Truss Structures Y. Murouu, S. Shao, M. Miki, H. Okada Prediction of Extreme Values of Linear Combination of Load Effects Aruid Nae&&
. 191 .201 . . . 213
Parametric Decomposition for System Reliability Evaluation . . . . . . . 225 Avina&h M. Na/day, Ros& B. Coroti& Integration of Multinormal Densities on Surfaces . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 G. Schall, S. Gollwitzer, R. Rackwitz Optimum Design of Damage Tolerant Marine Structures . . . . . . . . . 249 W. B. Shi, P. Sen, J. B. Caldwell Development of Techniques to Investigate the Ultimate Limit State of Framed Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E. P. Shuttleworth, J. K. Ward, M. Lalani Probabilistic Fatigue of Offshore Structures G. Sigurd&&on
. 269 .291
Bayesian Prediction of Design Wave Heights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 C. Guede& Soare& Inspection Strategies for Concrete Bridges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 J. D. Spren&en, P. Thoft-Chrntensen The Virtual Distortion Method Applied to the Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337 R.C. Turner, J.T. Gierlin&ki, G.M. Zintilis, M.J. Baker, J. Holnicki-Szulc A Probabilistic Wave Model for Reliability Analysis R. C. Turner, M. J. Baker Second Order Reliability by an Exact Integral Lar& Tvedt
.357
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
Structural Reliability Assessment by Minimal Representations in a Mechanism Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 Adrian Vulpe, Alezandru Carav.sv. A Random Field Model for the Estimation of Earthquake Hazard due to Active Faults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 M. Semih Yucemen
VII Reliability Analysis of Stochastic lligid-ldeal Plastic Wall by Finite Elements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O. Ditlel1len, T. Arnb;erg NieZ,en Long-Term System Reliability of Offshore Jacket Structures C. A. Holm, P. B;erager, H. O. Ma,z,en
. 411
. . . . • . . 421
Index of authors
.433
Subject index
.434
