Media, War & Conflict

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Believing the blogs of war? How blog users compare on credibility and characteristics in 2003 and 2007 Thomas J. Johnson and Barbara K. Kaye Media, War & Conflict 2010 3: 315 DOI: 10.1177/1750635210376591 The online version of this article can be found at: http://mwc.sagepub.com/content/3/3/315

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MWC Article

Believing the blogs of war? How blog users compare on credibility and characteristics in 2003 and 2007

Media, War & Conflict 3(3) 315–333 © The Author(s) 2010 Reprints and permission: sagepub. co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/1750635210376591 http://mwc.sagepub.com

Thomas J. Johnson

School of Journalism, University of Texas at Austin, USA

Barbara K. Kaye

Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC, USA

Abstract This study surveyed those who used blogs for information about the war in Iraq to investigate the degree to which judgements of credibility, reliance, demographics, and political characteristics of war blog users have changed between 2003 and 2007. In both 2003 and 2007, blog users judged blogs as more credible sources for war news than traditional media and their online counterparts. This study also found that different types of blogs were rated differently in terms of credibility in 2007 with military and war blogs rated the most credible and media blogs being judged the lowest in credibility. Additionally, parallels are drawn between the findings and possible roles for blogs in the escalating war in Afghanistan. Results are also discussed in terms of the changing roles of the military in Iraq as well as the changing role of blogs in the Iraq War.

Keywords blog credibility, blog use, blogs, credibility, milblogs, war in Iraq

The war in Iraq provided a huge boost to the fledgling blogging community (Hastings, 2003; Kaye and Johnson, 2004) because users found that blogs provided more personal insight and more thoughtful analysis of the war than the traditional media (Haigh and Pfau, 2007; Hebert, 2004). In 2003, bloggers were largely dismissed as small terriers who nipped at the ankles of traditional journalists but, by 2007, blogging had become commonplace as the number of blogs created by journalists and those hosted by

Corresponding author: Barbara K. Kaye, Associate Program Chair, Master of Arts Degree in Communication, The Johns Hopkins University, 1717 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Suite 104, Washington, DC 20026, USA. Email: [email protected]

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traditional media had grown considerably (Eveland and Dylko, 2007; Singer, 2006). War blogs1 and milblogs, which are written by soldiers or others on the frontlines and focus solely on the war, also received considerable attention during the combat stage of the war in Iraq because they presented close-up and unvarnished views of military culture and military life (Haigh and Pfau, 2007). Despite being initially viewed with skepticism, blogs were later touted as a genuine alternative to mainstream news outlets (Johnson and Kaye, 2007; Kaye and Johnson, 2004). At first, the war enjoyed enormous support as three-quarters of Americans applauded the decision to send troops to Iraq (Jones, 2007). But much has changed since the initial invasion. As the mission shifted from toppling Saddam Hussein to maintaining a fragile peace and propping up the Iraqi Government, support for the war plummeted, with only about one-third of the public supporting the war effort after the first three years (CNN. com, 2008). Also, attention to the war from the traditional media had dropped (Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2007a). Although several studies have examined the characteristics of individuals who seek out war information from blogs (Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007; Perlmutter, 2008), how much they use blogs for war information (Smith and Rainie, 2008; Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2005), how credible they find blog war information (Johnson and Kaye, 2004, 2008) and the perceived influence of blogs on war attitudes (Graf, 2006; Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson and Kaye, 2007), these studies examined blog users at a single point in time, typically during the first months of the conflict. Studies have not investigated whether perceptions of credibility and use of blogs have changed as support for, and the nature of, the war in Iraq have changed. This study is based on two online surveys of politically interested internet users who visited blogs to get news about the Iraq War. The first was conducted from 23 April to 22 May 2003, and the second exactly four years later. The purpose of this study is to compare changes from 2003 to 2007 in blog credibility and blog use for information about the war in Iraq. Moreover, military commanders were given the authority in 2005 to order service members to stop blogging or to submit their entries for review because of the belief that some content violated military regulations or security (Haigh and Pfau, 2007; Strupp, 2005). Because milblog content may have become more constrained, users’ perceptions may have changed and these shifts may have been captured by this study’s analysis. Also examined is the degree to which ideology and other characteristics of war blog users have changed from 2003 to 2007. The results identify factors that influence perceptions of credibility of blog war reports. Further, as the war in Afghanistan intensifies, the findings provide insight into the role blogs continue to play as providers of war information

Media and foreign policy While the media may preach the philosophy of detachment from story topics and their sources, they practice the policy of attachment in foreign policy coverage, in general, and war coverage, in particular. In the practice of attachment, journalists abandon the notion of neutrality and cover the war in terms of good guys/bad guys and good versus evil

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(Ruigrok, 2008) and, since the media rely heavy on government sources, that coverage typically reflects the government’s policies (De Beer and Merrill, 1994; Fahmy and Johnson, 2010; Vultee, 2009), especially during wartime when the media are expected to take sides and support the government war policy through favorable coverage (Bell, 2008; Bennett et al., 2006; Ruigrok, 2008). During the ground war in Iraq, US media coverage was overwhelmingly positive (Haigh et al., 2006; Pfau et al., 2005), with reporters acting as cheerleaders in support of the government’s war effort rather than maintaining a critical distance. Bell (2008) lamented that war coverage signaled ‘the death of news’, because it promoted the government’s efforts with reporters crossing the line from being detached observers to acting as if they were government representatives.

Blogs and credibility during the war in Iraq Blogs gained credibility and popularity during the Iraq War for several reasons. First, many blogs were written by soldiers on the battlefield. These accounts provided more detail and insight than those penned by correspondents for the traditional media (Hebert, 2004; Johnson and Kaye, 2008), and expertise is a major influence on whether a source is considered credible (Hovland, Janis and Kelley, 1953; Hovland, Lumsdaine and Sheffield, 1949; Metzger et al., 2003). Next, because bloggers do not need to adhere to standards of traditional journalistic values, such as objectivity, fairness and balance, they are free to interject their own views, experiences and insights into their reports (Johnson and Kaye, 2004; Park, 2009). For example, they often show images that might not meet media standards of good taste, such as bloodied soldiers or injured civilians (Haigh and Pfau, 2007; Park, 2009; Perlmutter, 2008). Lastly, users are drawn to the interactive nature of blogs. On most blogs, readers can respond to postings by the blogger or other users. These interactions promote debate about the war’s progress (Hastings, 2003). Additionally, users often visit blogs to read other perspectives about the war and to become a part of a community of like-minded individuals (Kaye, 2007; Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Perlmutter, 2008; Wall, 2006).

Credibility changes over time Media credibility fluctuates over time both in response to social and cultural events and to ethical lapses and criticisms of the media. For instance, media credibility rose along with the credibility of other government institutions in the wake of seminal events such as the Iran/Contra affair (Johnson, 1993), September 11th (Pew Research Center, 2001) and the war in Iraq (Pew Research Center, 2003). On the other hand, credibility ratings of information sources dropped after criticism of coverage of high-profile events such as the O. J. Simpson trial and Princess Diana’s death (Johnson and Kaye, 2000) as well as more recent ethical lapses such as the Jayson Blair plagiarism debacle (Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2006). The percentage of individuals who asserted confidence in the press to present an accurate picture of the war in Iraq had dropped by nearly a half from 2003 to 2007 (81% to 42%), as had their confidence in the military to present a true picture of the war

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(Kohut, 2007). These decreases reflected the public’s diminished support for the war. Further, as the war shifted from an attempt to oust Saddam Hussein to an attempt to maintain peace amid sectarian violence, even reporters expressed less support for the war effort (‘Into the Abyss’, 2006; Fahmy and Johnson, 2007), which, in part, may have led to flagging media attention and major shifts in themes of coverage of the war during 2007 (Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2007a). But what is not clear is whether shifts in public and journalistic opinion about the war affected war coverage on the blogosphere. Most leading military and war blogs supported the war effort (Haigh and Pfau, 2007), although political blogs2 that frequently discussed the war cut across political ideologies and thus expressed varying support of the war (Perlmutter, 2008).

Characteristics of blog users When blogs were first emerging as the new online hot spots, users were young, welleducated males with high incomes (Eveland and Dylko, 2007; Graf, 2006; Johnson et al., 2007; Perlmutter, 2008). Although these males are still frequent blog visitors, the typical blog reader is middle-aged, and the number of women and less educated users has increased (Kaye, in press). Further, some reports assert that blog users are generally Republican and conservative (Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007), some claim they are equally liberal and conservative (Eveland and Dylko, 2007; Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2007b) and others find that blog users are more likely to be liberal (Blog Reader, 2007). These discrepancies may reflect some true ideological swings in the blogosphere. Blogs gained popularity with conservatives in the wake of September 11th and the war, especially with those who were upset with the traditional media that they perceived as being too sympathetic towards Muslims (Hamdy and Mobarak, 2004; Kaye and Johnson, 2004). Liberals discovered blogging a few years later when Howard Dean used his blog to become an early frontrunner in the 2004 presidential election race (Stromer-Galley and Baker, 2006). The blogs people choose to visit is largely determined by ideology and, not surprisingly, individuals tend to seek out blogs that support their point of view (Choi et al., 2006; Johnson et al., 2007; Johnson et al., 2009). Other personal characteristics also influence which blogs are read most often. Individuals who are very interested in, and knowledgeable about, the war and politics, in general, actively search out specialized information such as that found on political and war blogs. Moreover, blog users are generally distrusting of the government but they believe they have the ability to bring about political change (Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson and Kaye, 2007). Blog users’ distrust of the government extends to a distrust of the traditional media, thus they rely on blogs for political information (Graf, 2006; Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson and Kaye, 2007).

Blog use, reliance and participation As users became more reliant on blogs for information about the war, their blog usage patterns also changed. Experienced users spent more time online than newer users

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(Howard et al., 2001) because successfully negotiating internet components, such as blogs, requires expertise, and expertise is gained through increased use (Papacharissi and Rubin, 2000). Experienced users, then, may be less frustrated because they have developed strategies for finding information and thus have become more reliant on blogs. In addition, experienced users know which blogs share their own views and therefore which ones post information they deem as credible (Johnson and Kaye 2004, Johnson et al., 2007). Conversely, infrequent, less experienced, blog users may be put off by the opinionated, diary-like nature of blogs and therefore judge them as not very credible. How blogs are used and the reasons why they are used can be attributed to their interactive nature. Blog users can choose just to read posts on a blog (i.e. ‘lurkers’), post their analysis, or send comments to the blogger (Trammell et al., 2006). Therefore, blog use measures should go beyond asking users how long they have been accessing blogs or their level of reliance on them, but should also include their actual participation. For example, those who choose only to observe rather than participate in online communities do so to find out more about the community, fear that the group will be a poor fit or tend to not like the group dynamics (Van Uden-Kraan et al., 2008). Not surprisingly, then, people shift from being lurkers to participants the more often they visit an online community and the more comfortable they become with the group and its members (Rafaeli et al., 2004).

Research questions and hypotheses This study compares how blogs were used for information about the war in Iraq in 2003 and in 2007 by addressing the following questions and hypothesis: RQ1: To what degree have blog users’ demographic characteristics (gender, age, education and income), war and general news interest, war knowledge and support, political characteristics, trust in the government and self-efficacy changed from 2003 to 2007? RQ2: To what degree have blog users’ perceptions of the influence of blogs on their attitudes and opinions about general issues and about the war changed from 2003 to 2007? RQ3: To what degree have blog users’ perceptions of the credibility of blogs as sources of war information changed from 2003 to 2007? H1: War blog usage as measured by (a) hours per week, (b) reliance, and (c) participation significantly increased from 2003 to 2007.

Method This study compares the results of two online surveys. The first survey was posted online from 23 April to 22 May 2003 (N = 3,747), and the second exactly four years later (N = 1,989). For both surveys, an announcement accompanied by a request to fill out the survey was placed on blogs of diverse ideologies and varying types of blogs, such as general information, media, political, war and military.3 In 2003, the survey was linked from 131 blogs (see note 2) and 14 blog-oriented bulletin boards/electronic mailing lists

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(see note 3). In 2007, the survey URL was posted on 70 blogs.4 From both survey years, the linked blogs were of diverse ideologies ranging from the progressive Huffington Post to the conservative Boortz News. Additionally, in both years, once a respondent completed the survey he or she was encouraged to ‘snowball’ it to fellow blog readers by clicking on a link that automatically forwarded the survey.

Blog credibility This study examined the changes in the perceptions of credibility of blogs from 2003 to 2007. A multidimensional construct consisting of believability, fairness, accuracy and depth of information (Gaziano and McGrath, 1986; Johnson and Kaye, 2000) measured the credibility of blogs using a 1–5 point scale ranging from 1 = not very believable/fair/ accurate/in-depth to 5 = very believable/fair/accurate/in-depth. In 2003, respondents were asked their judgements of credibility of blogs in general whereas, in 2007, blogs were categorized into five types: general information, media, political, war and military.

Use, reliance and participation on blogs for war information (2003 and 2007) Respondents estimated the number of hours per week they spend on blogs. How much respondents rely on blogs was rated on a 5-point scale: 1 = never rely, 2 = rarely rely, 3 = sometimes rely, 4 = rely, and 5 = heavily rely. Further, previous studies of uses of the internet and its components typically have defined use in terms of amount and length of time online but this study taps into how much people interact with blogs as an additional use measure. Respondents assessed their participation on blogs by marking whether they: (1) never participate (just read, never send in comments/links); (2) have low participation (mostly read, rarely send in comments/links); (3) sometimes participate (sometimes send in comments/links); (4) have high participation (often send in comments/links); or (5) have very high participation (very often send in comments/links).

Political characteristics (2003 and 2007) War interest and knowledge, and blog influence. Respondents marked their level of interest and knowledge about the war in Iraq and the influence of blogs on their attitudes towards the war on a 0 to 10 scale (0 = no interest to 10 = extremely interested). They were also asked about their support for the war on a 5-point scale that ranged from 1 = not supportive at all to 5 = highly supportive. Interest in general news and blog influence. Respondents indicated their degree of interest in general news and current events on a 0 to 10 scale (0 = no interest to 10 = extremely interested). Similarly, respondents were asked about influence of blogs on their attitudes and opinions in general and on the war on a 0 to 10 scale (0 = no influence to 10 = absolute influence). Trust and Self-Efficacy. Trust in the Government and Self-Efficacy were measured by items previously used in the National Election Studies conducted by the University of

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Michigan: Trust: ‘Most of our leaders are devoted to service’, ‘Politicians never tell us what they really think’ and ‘I don’t think public officials care much about what people like me think’; Self-Efficacy: ‘People like me don’t have any say about what the government does’ and ‘Every vote counts in an election, including yours and mine.’ The response options for each attitude index ranged from 1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree. The polarity was reversed on the second and third statements of the Trust index and the first Efficacy item. Summated indices for the Trust and for the Self-Efficacy items were then created. The reliability for the Trust index is .74, and the Efficacy index is .54.5 Political Party Ties and Ideology, 2007. Respondents were asked to indicate the political party with which they were registered: Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green, Other, Independent. A 0 to 10 scale (0 = weak party ties to 10 = very strong party ties) was used to assess degree of association with a political party. Respondents were also asked to indicate whether they consider themselves (1) very liberal, (2) liberal, (3) moderate, (4) conservative, or (5) very conservative. Political Party Ties and Ideology, 2003. Respondents were asked to select the option that most closely described their political preference: Strong Republican, Lean Toward Republican, Strong Democrat, Lean Toward Democrat, Independent, Other.

Demographics Respondents indicated their gender, age at their last birthday, and selected their highest level of education from among seven options that ranged from ‘less than high school’, to ‘PhD degree’ and ‘other’. In 2007, respondents entered their estimated income for the survey year. In 2003, respondents were asked to mark an income range: less than $10,000, $10,001–$25,000, $25,001–$40,000, $40,001–$65,000, $65,001–$80,000, $80,001– $95,000, more than $95,000.

Data analysis (2007 and 2003 data) Frequencies and mean scores were run on blog credibility, reliance, use and influence, war interest, knowledge and support, interest in general news, strength of party ties, political ideology, trust, self-efficacy, and demographic variables (gender, age, education and income). Mean scores were also calculated for each of the credibility measures (believability, fairness, accuracy, depth) of blogs. The four measures were then combined into a credibility index for each blog type. Cronbach’s alpha and mean scores were calculated for each credibility index (Table 2). A data file that combined the responses from 2003 and 2007 was created to run independent sample t-tests to ascertain significant differences of mean scores of the credibility indices. Additionally, because statistical significance may be influenced by sample size, practical significance was tested using Cohen’s d method of determining effect size – the strength of a relationship in terms of units of standard deviation (Stevens, 1986; Vogt, 1993), Cohen deemed an effect large if d = .8, moderate if d = .5 and small if d = .2 (Valentine and Cooper, 2003).

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At the time of data collection in 2003, blogs were largely general information blogs that covered many different subjects. As blogging became more popular and individuals with specific expertise and purposes set up their own blogs, and as media and other types of corporate enterprises hired individuals to set up blogs, blogs have become more topically focused. Therefore, for this particular study, comparisons between general blogs in 2003 and general blogs in 2007 are appropriate, and analysis of 2007 blog types is limited to within-year analysis.

Results The first research question examined the respondents’ demographic characteristics, war interest, war knowledge and support, general news interest, political characteristics, trust in the government and self-efficacy with specific focus on changes between 2003 and 2007. The most striking demographic difference between 2003 and 2007 is that the average age of blog users had significantly increased from 38.9 years to 47.7 years old (t = 25.2, df = 3796, p < .001). Further, Cohen’s d = .70 indicates a large effect in age between the two years. In general, the trend is for blog readers to be older and they continue to be males who are highly educated and have high incomes. Slight shifts occurred in interest in, and support of, the war, and interest in general news between the two years studied. In 2007, respondents indicated a significantly stronger interest in the war (M = 9.7, range 1–10) (t = 27.3, df = 4446, p < .001) and in general news (M = 9.7) (t = 40.5, df = 4342, p < .001) than in 2003 (M = 8.4, 8.0, respectively) but support for the war decreased significantly (2003, M = 4.0, range 1–5; 2007, M = 3.6) (t = –11.6, df = 3639, p = .000). Knowledge of the events had, however, stayed the same (2003 M = 4.3, 2007 M = 4.2). Cohen’s d indicates large effects for general news interest (d = 1.09) and war interest (d = .72), but only small effects for war support (d = –.29) and knowledge of the war (d = .00). Significant differences were apparent in the levels of trust in the government and feelings of self-efficacy. In 2003, one-third (32.3%) of blog users reported high/very high trust but by 2007 only 13.2 percent was highly trusting. Further, in 2003 only 22.1 percent reported low to very low levels of trust compared to 2007 when almost four out of ten (39.8%) reported they were not very trusting. Mean scores (range 3–15) indicate a significant decrease in levels of trust in government between 2003 and 2007 (2003 M = 8.9, 2007 M = 7.4) (t = –20.8, df = 4181, p < .001). According to Cohen’s d (d = –.57) the practical significance is moderate. The percentage of blog users who report high/very high levels of self-efficacy had also decreased from 64.4 percent in 2003 to 51.0 percent in 2007. Independent sample t-test demonstrates a significant decrease in mean scores (range 2–10) between the two years (2003 M = 7.6, 2007 M = 7.1) (t = –9.3, df = 3848, p < .001), however Cohen’s test indicates a small effect size (d = –.24). Comparisons of political party affiliation indicate that Republicans dominated the blogosphere, though the percentage of strong Republican supporters decreased from 48 percent to 40.0 percent from 2003 to 2007. Democrats represented about one in six blog readers (2007 = 16.6%; 2003 = 14.5%). The study also found that an increasing number of blog users did not identify with either major party or consider themselves independent

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but rather listed themselves as Libertarian or Green. In 2007, respondents were asked to indicate their political ideology. Almost 6 out of 10 (57.6%) asserted that they were conservative/very conservative, one-quarter (24.4%) moderate, and the remaining 18.0 percent liberal/very liberal.

Table 1. Profile of blog users and reliance on blogs: 2003 and 2007 2007 (N = 1,989)

2003 (N = 3,747)

Gender Male Female Age (mean) Income (mean) Less than $25,000 $25,0001–$80,000 $80,001+

77.3% 22.7% 47.7 (SD 12.8) $90,475 N/A N/A N/A

76.5% 23.5% 38.9 (SD 12.5) N/A 16.5% 54.3% 29.2%

Education Less than high school/grad Some college/degree Graduate

2.5% 58.0% 31.6%

3.4% 59.3% 33.3%

Political Attitudes (mean score) War Interest (range 1–10) Knowledge of War (range 1–5) War Support (range 1–5) General News Interest (range 1–10) Blog Influence war opinion (range 0–10) Blog Influence in general (range 0–10) Hours per week on blogs Blog Participation (range 1–5)

Ind. samples t-scores

Cohen’s d Effects size

t = 25.2*

.70

.72 .00

9.7 (SD 1.6) 4.2 (SD .78)

8.4 (SD 1.8) 4.3 (SD .74)

t = 27.3* t = -1.6

3.6 (SD 1.5) 9.7 (SD 1.5)

4.0 (SD 1.3) 8.0 (SD 1.6)

t = -11.6** t = 40.5*

6.8 (SD 2.5)

5.7 (SD 2.5)

t = 16.1*

.44

6.7 (SD 2.3)

5.8 (SD 2.1)

t = 8.2*

.42

11.4 (SD 8.3) 2.4 (SD .91)

9.1 (SD 7.7) 3.0 (SD 1.1)

t = 10.2* t = -25.1*

.29 -.58

Trust in the Government Very high/high Trust Moderate Trust Very low/low Trust Mean (range 3–15)

13.2% 47.0% 39.8% 7.4 (SD 2.5)

32.3% 45.6% 22.1% 8.9 (SD 2.7)

t = -20.8*

-.57

Self-Efficacy Very high/high Efficacy Moderate Efficacy Very low/low Efficacy Mean (range 2–10)

51.0% 37.1% 11.9% 7.1 (SD 1.9)

64.4% 29.3% 7.3% 7.6 (SD 1.8)

t = -9.3*

-.24

-.29 1.09

(Continued)

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Table 1. (Continued) 2007 (N = 1,989)

2003 (N = 3,747)

57.6%

N/A

24.4% 18.0% 3.4

N/A N/A N/A

Political Party Republican Democrat Independent Strong/Lean Republican Strong/Lean Democrat Independent

40.0% 16.6% 17.7% N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A 48.0% 14.5% 21.4%

Reliance on Blogs Very high/high Reliance Moderate Reliance Very low/low Reliance Mean (range 1–5)

68.4% 21.6% 10.1% 3.8 (SD 1.1)

76.9% 13.7% 9.5% 4.1 (SD 1.1)

Political Ideology Very Conservative/ Conservative Moderate Very Liberal/Liberal Mean score (1–5)

Ind. samples t-scores

Cohen’s d Effects size

t = -8.2*

-.27

*p < .001; **p = .000.

The second research question concerns changes in the influence of blogs. Between 2003 and 2007, blogs became more influential in shaping attitudes towards the war and other issues in general. In 2003, respondents rated blogs as moderately influential regarding the war (M = 5.7, range 1–10) and general news (M = 5.8) but, four years later, their influence significantly increased (war, M = 6.8, general issues, M = 6.7) (war influence t = 16.1, df = 552, p < .001; general news influence t = 8.2, df = 4048, p < .001). Further, Cohen’s d indicates only a moderate increase in the influence of blogs on opinions about the war (d = .44) and about other news issues (d = .42). The first hypothesis states that the number of hours per week on blogs, reliance on blogs and blog participation will have significantly increased between 2003 and 2007. The hypothesis was partially supported as the number of hours spent per week on blogs (2003 M = 9.1 hours; 2007 M = 11.4 hours) significantly increased (t = 10.2, df = 3606, p < .001), but levels of participation significantly decreased (range 1–5; 2003 M = 3.0, 2007 M = 2.4) (t = –25.1, df = 4753, p < .001) as did reliance (t = – 8.2, df = 4753, p < .001). Moreover, the statistically significant difference in hours on blogs may be largely due to the sample size rather than to a true increase in time spent on blogs (Cohen’s d = .29). However, Cohen’s d does show a moderate effect for the decrease in blog participation (d = –.58) (Table 1). A slightly smaller percentage (68.4%) of respondents reported high/very high reliance in 2007 compared to 2003 (76.9%), while the percentage of those who moderately rely on blogs increased to 21.6% from 13.7% in 2003. In general, these findings suggest that

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blog users may have shifted from high to more moderate reliance on blogs, although the effect is small (Cohen’s d = –.27) (Table 1). The third research question examined how credibility scores for blogs for war information in 2003 compared to 2007. For the 2007 survey, respondents were asked to rate the believability, fairness, accuracy and depth of five blog types: general information, media, political, war and military, whereas in 2003 they were asked about blogs in general. In both 2003 and 2007, blogs were rated as only moderately credible. In 2003, general information blogs were seen as more believable (range 1–5, M = 3.6), accurate (M = 3.5) and in-depth (M = 4.0) than in 2007. In 2003 and 2007, general information blogs were rated the same in terms of fairness (M = 3.2). Independent samples t-scores indicate that credibility index ratings of general information had decreased in four years. The comparison of general information blogs showed that overall credibility significantly dropped from a mean of 14.3 (range 4–20) in 2003 to a mean of 12.9 in 2007 (t = –16.9; df = 5494; p < .001), but practical significance (Cohen’s d = –.51) shows only a moderate effect. When analyzing different types of blogs in 2007, military blogs rated highest in believability (M = 3.8), fairness (M = 3.5), accuracy (M = 3.6) and depth (M = 3.8) than any other blog type. War blogs were judged as the second most credible blog type (Table 2). Overall, between 2003 and 2007, blog users became more interested in general news and the war, and less supportive of the government’s war efforts. They spent more time on blogs but participated at a lower level and they felt that blogs had become more influential. They were less trusting of the government and were not as self-efficacious as four years earlier. Blog users tended to be conservative and affiliated with the Republican party. Additionally, the average age of blog users increased by 9 years.

Table 2. Perceptions of believability, fairness, accuracy and depth of different blog types Mean scores (scale 1–5) Believability

Fairness

Accuracy

Depth

Credibility Index (4–20)

War blogs 2007

3.4

3.1

3.3

3.6

Military blogs 2007

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.8

Political blogs 2007

3.1

2.6

2.9

3.4

Media journalism blogs 2007

2.9

2.5

2.8

2.9

General info. blogs 2007

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.1

General info. blogs 2003

3.6

3.2

3.5

4.0

13.5 (N = 1796) α = .89 (SD 3.3) 14.7 (N = 1799) α = .90 (SD 3.5) 12.0 (N = 1811) α = .84 (SD 3.1) 11.0 (N = 1806) α = .85 (SD 3.0) 12.9 (N = 1838) α = .80 (SD 2.4) 14.3 (N = 3659) α = .79 (SD 2.9) t-score = -16.9*. Cohen’s d = -.51

*p < .001.

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Discussion This study surveyed individuals who used blogs for information about the war in Iraq to discover the degree to which reliance, demographics and political characteristics of war blog users changed between 2003 and 2007. This study also examined whether blog users’ judgements of credibility of blogs as sources of war information had changed amidst a huge increase in the number of blogs and a decrease in support for the war. Although this study’s findings are limited to the time period of 2003 to 2007, they are especially pertinent in 2010 as the war in Iraq is winding down but the war in Afghanistan is heating up. As this study shows, blogs were very influential in setting perceptions at the onset of the war in Iraq and had become even more influential in shaping these attitudes as the war continued. As blogs had the power to sway public opinion about the war in Iraq from 2003 to 2007, presumably they still have the power to do so regarding the war in Afghanistan. While this study’s respondents claimed that blogs had more of an influence on them in 2007 than they did in 2003, it is not clear just how much of an influence blog use had on the respondents’ support for the war, which had weakened since 2003. Regardless, the decline in war support may have produced other political consequences such as a drop in trust in government and a decreased sense that an individual can influence what happens in Washington. Yet, despite these findings, this study indicated that interest in the war had intensified. Although blogs became more influential between 2003 and 2007, and the amount of time users spent on blogs looking for war information increased, reliance on blogs for war information decreased. These findings are an interesting contradiction. At the time, reliance on non-traditional online sources, such as blogs, was increasing as people learned which sources were reliable and which ones were not (Johnson and Kaye, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007). As both blog use and interest in the war increased, support for the war weakened, yet many blogs remained supportive. Blog users, therefore, may have been looking for other more balanced sources of war information and thus became less reliant on blogs. The heightened war interest came at a time when the mainstream press had reduced both its presence in Iraq and the amount of space it devoted to it (Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2007a). While the number of dramatic events that highlighted the initial ground war had dwindled, there had been a surge in the number of troops who were fighting the war and were still in harm’s way, which may account for the stepped-up interest in the war among blog users. In particular, the period from 2003 to 2007 had seen the rise of the milblogs. Milbloggers provided photos and videos of their experiences in Iraq and gave their readers a glimpse into military life and culture. As the media curtailed their coverage, more people turned to war and military blogs for in-depth information, analysis and opinions of the war missing from traditional media (Cioppa, 2009; Johnson and Kaye 2004; Kaye and Johnson, 2004). The rise of milblogs may explain why blog participation had decreased. Rather than going to political or war blogs that encouraged users to share their views about the war, users visited milblogs where they were more likely to learn about military life rather than argue a point of view. It will be interesting to see if the same blog usage patterns follow as the war in Afghanistan continues. War and military blogs could become the primary sources of war

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news if consumers believe that mainstream media are downplaying the events in Afghanistan. If the mainstream media are seen as unreliable and not very credible, then perhaps their online counterparts will be viewed as such as well, and blogs will further surpass them as sources of war information. This study also assessed the perceptions of blog credibility. General information blogs declined in credibility from 2003 to 2007. This change may signify that those who still relied on blogs were shifting from more general blogs to ones specifically devoted to war information. Indeed, war and military blogs were deemed the most credible blog types and media blogs were judged the lowest. War and military blogs may be perceived as more credible sources for war news than other blog types and traditional media because they were created by citizens in Iraq who directly observed the war, or by soldiers fighting in the conflict. These war and military bloggers may be perceived as having more expertise than the reporters covering the war because they provided in-depth eyewitness accounts of the war and personal perspectives on events, and they were more familiar with military and Iraqi culture than US reporters covering the war. Depth of information, expertise and trustworthiness are the major factors people use in assessing credibility (Cioppa, 2009; Hovland, Lumsdaine and Sheffield, 1949; Hovland Janis and Kelley, 1953; Johnson and Kaye, 2004, 2009). This study’s findings could portend that war and military blogs will be viewed as the most credible blog sources of news and information from Afghanistan, with media blogs, political blogs and traditional media taking a lesser role. This study also examined the political and demographic characteristics of those who use blogs for war information. Between 2003 and 2007, blog users continued to be welleducated males with high incomes. The average age of blog users in 2007 was significantly older, which may reflect overall changes in the blogosphere. Blogs have evolved from being online diaries posted mainly by young people to keep in touch with family and friends to being content-driven venues that contain news and perspective of events such as war, that appeal to an older audience. Regarding political ideology, this study found that those who sought out blog information about the war in Iraq were still predominantly Republican, although the percentage of Republicans decreased slightly from 2003 to 2007. Additionally, conservatives greatly outnumbered liberals by more than three to one in 2007. This dominance of conservative Republicans supports studies that have found that war and military blog users are largely conservative (Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007). Overall, with the war in Iraq winding down, support for the intensifying war in Afghanistan could very well have an effect on the use of blogs and on other media for war information and on perceptions of credibility. The public is not as supportive of the war in Afghanistan as it was at the beginning of the war in Iraq. Further, support is slipping very quickly (ABC News/Washington Post Poll, 2009). By October 2009, only about 45 percent of Americans favored the war, down from 63 percent six months earlier (Polling Report, 2009). Using this study as an indicator, if support for the war in Afghanistan continues to drop, reliance on blogs for war information could be weak depending on whether they remain supportive of war in general. Since blog users tend to gravitate to information they already support, it is likely that conservative males, who identify with the Republican party will be the most likely to use blogs to monitor the war.

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Further, perceptions of credibility could suffer among moderates and liberals if blogs are viewed as pushing a pro-war agenda or taking stances that run contrary to public opinion in general. If blogs are seen as too one-sided, more demographically and politically mainstream blog users could turn to other online sources or even back to traditional media for their war news.

Limitations and suggestions for future study This study relied on self-selected respondents who visit blogs for war information. Therefore, results reported here cannot be generalized to all blog users. The internet does not provide a reliable mechanism to randomly sample the entire online population or smaller subgroups such as blog users (Kaye and Johnson, 1999). Non-probability sampling is appropriate for posting a survey when random samples are not possible (Babbie, 1990). Similarly, snowball sampling is especially useful for reaching populations that are inaccessible or hard to find (Web Center for Social Research Methods, 2008; Atkinson and Flint, 2001) and has been used in other published internet and blog studies (Johnson and Kaye, 2004, 2009; Kaye, 2005, 2007). This study compared blog use for war information in 2003 and 2007. A third wave should be conducted while Barack Obama is in office, and the war in Afghanistan is again escalating to see if credibility changes under the war policies of a different administration and a different war. A content analysis could be conducted of major general information/citizen blogs, media/journalism blogs, war blogs and milblogs to see how they cover the war changes over time. Finally, the bloggers themselves could be surveyed to discover how, if at all, their coverage of the Iraq War has changed over time and what factors led to changes in that coverage. Notes 1. General information/citizen blogs are those in which citizens play an active role in the process of collecting, reporting, analyzing and disseminating news and information. Media/journalism blogs encompass those that report news and option and those that are about journalism. Bloggers are usually, but not always, journalists. A warblog is concerned with terrorism, war and conflict, often with a pro-military stance. A military blog (milblog) is a blog written by members or veterans of any branch of the US armed services, posting directly from the front lines in Iraq and Afghanistan. Political blogs primarily comment on politics, and they often have a clearly stated political bias. 2. Links to the survey were posted on the following weblogs in 2003: 2020hindsight, Ackackackcom, Across Atlantic, Africapundit, Agonist, Alphecca, Altercation, Alternet, Amish Tech Support, Amishblogmo, AndrewOlmsted, AndrewSullivan, Apostablog, Atlanticblogcom, Atriosblogspotcom, Bag and Baggage, Balloon Juice, Baseball Musings, Behold, blogspot, Biasblogfodder, BlissfulKnowledge, Blogdex, Bloglogic, Blogosphere, Blogs Of War, Blogtporg/K, Boingboingnet, BryonScott, Buck Stops Here, Cnn.com, Cold Fury, ComeOn, CoranteOnBlogging, Corantec, Corner On NRO, Counterrevolutionary, CraigsChamp, Crblogspot, Critical Mass, Cut On Bias, Daily Dish, Daily Pundit, Daniel Drezner, Davespickscom, Daypopcom, Dead Parrot Society, Dean Esmay, Doc Searls, Docweblogs, DrudgeReport, Erablognet, Erin O’Connor, Ever Changing Select, Eyndenloo,

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Fark, Fat Guy, FreeRepublic, Geek-Chick, Give Blogs4god, Glenn Reynolds, Goatsec, Greenfield, HanlonVision, Hierogrammate, HighClear, Hoder, HomelessGuy, Hoosier Review, HPANA, Hunnet, IdleType, Ihodercom, Instapundit, J.D. Lasica – New Media Musings, Jeff Cooper, Jessica’sWell, JoanneJacobs, JonahGoldberg, Josh Claybourne, Journalsp, Jsnotesblogs, LA Livejournal, Leftcoastblog, Leuschke, LGF, Light Of Reason, Like A Hooligan’s, Lucianne, Matwyglesias.com, Mediaticblog, Melblogger, Metafilter, Metapop, Midwest Conservative, MouseMusings, MSNBC, National Review, Newsweek.com, No. 2. Pencil, Ogloboc, OnBias, Parduedur, Pattern Recognition, Popdex, Post-Atomic, Powerline, RachaelLucas, RealClearPolitics, Rebecca Blood, Resurrections, Ritingonwall, Rjwest.com, Sassafrass, Seaofkitt, Shellen.com, Silflay, Hraka, Slate, Slings and Arrows, SouthKnoxBubba, Suzanna Cornett, Tacitus, Tapped, Tim Blair, Uncorrelated.com, Unqualified Offering, Volokh Conspiracy, Warblogs, Winds Of Change, Zogbyblogspot.com 3. Links to the survey were posted on the following bulletin boards/electronic mailing lists: Bloggingcommunity@Yahoo, Colorado Bloggers, Comp.Dcom.Telecom, Dfwblogs, Lds-Poll@ Yahoogroups.Com, Pinoybloggers, Salon Blogs Group, Telecomdigest, Theblosxom,Val-L, weblogdeveloperusergroup, weblogemailgroup, weblogusersgroup,Yahoogroups-Syndic8 4. Links to the survey were posted on the following blogs in 2007: A Family in Baghdad, A Family in Iraq, Ace of Spades HQ, Ann Althouse, AOL, Appalachian Scribe, Betsey’s Page, Blogometer, Boortz News, brianhornback.blogspot, Brian’s Blog, Center for Citizen Media, Citizen Journalism, CNN, Crooks and Liars, Daily Kos, Dan Gillmor, DC Metblogs, Democratic Underground, edwardwillett.blogspot, Fark, Firedoglake, Hassenpfeffer, Highclearing, Hotline Blogometer, Joanne Jacobs, journalism.nyu.edu/pubzone/weblogs/ pressthink, Huffington Post, Hullabaloo, Infomaniac, Instapolit, Instapundit, Jay Rosen’s Press Think, Jesus General, Journalism.co.uk, Khalid Jarrar, Knox News, KnoxViews, Mike the Mad Biologist, Mindy McAdams, Moderate Voice, MoveOn.org, NewsBusters, NewsDissector, NewsHounds, No Silence Here, Nofishnonuts, Obsidian Wings, Oraculations, Outside the Beltway, Poliblogger, Political Mavens-Steven Taylor, Politics in the Zeros, Power of Narrative, PowerLine, Poynter.org/Romenesko, Pressthink.org, Raw Story, Secrets In Baghdad, Skippy the Bush Kangaroo, Slate, Teaching Online Journalism (UNC), Tell Me a Secret, tojou.blogspot, Unqualified Offerings, Wake Up America, www. wakeupamericans-spree.blogspot 5. The efficacy index is below the normal .70 standard for internal reliability. However, low reliability scores are not unusual for an index of only two items. One of the main ways to ensure reliability is to use measures that have proven reliable in previous research (Babbie, 1990). Therefore, the authors combined the two items into an index because these two items from the National Election Studies have proven reliable in past studies.

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Biographical notes Thomas J. Johnson is the Amon G. Carter, Jr. Centennial Professor in the School of Journalism at University of Texas at Austin. His fields of interest are public opinion and political communication research, particularly the role of the media in presidential elections. Address: School of Journalism, University of Texas, 2504A Whitis Avenue, Austin, TX 78712, USA. [email: [email protected]] Barbara K. Kaye is Associate Program Chair for the Online Master of Arts Degree in Communication at Johns Hopkins University. (On leave as Professor in the School of Journalism & Electronic Media, University of Tennessee-Knoxville). Research interests: media effects and consumer uses of new communication technologies.