Evaluation of Long Range Summer Forecasts of Lower Fraser River Discharge and Temperature Conditions

D.A. Patterson and M.J. Hague

Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Branch, Pacific Region Co-operative Resource Management Institute School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC

2007

Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2754

ii

Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2754

2007

EVALUATION OF LONG RANGE SUMMER FORECASTS OF LOWER FRASER RIVER DISCHARGE AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS

by

D.A. Patterson and M.J. Hague

Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Branch, Pacific Region CRMI c/o School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Burnaby BC V5A 1S6

ii

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2007. Cat. No. Fs 97-6/2754E ISSN 0706-6457

Correct citation for this publication: Patterson, D.A. and Hague, M.J. 2007. Evaluation of long range summer forecasts of lower Fraser River discharge and temperature conditions. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2754: vii + 34 p.

iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables................................................................................................................................ iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... v Abstract....................................................................................................................................... vii Introduction ...................................................................................................................................1 Methods ........................................................................................................................................2 Model structure ..........................................................................................................................2 Diagnostic tests .........................................................................................................................2 Forecasting methods .................................................................................................................3 Temperature forecast models ................................................................................................4 Historic temperature trends.................................................................................................4 Temperature-discharge correlation .....................................................................................4 Summer air anomaly ...........................................................................................................4 Spring air anomaly ..............................................................................................................5 Multiple regression ..............................................................................................................5 Discharge forecasts................................................................................................................6 Winter precipitation index....................................................................................................6 Snowpack water volume forecast .......................................................................................6 Ensemble flow technique ....................................................................................................7 Sensitivity analyses ...................................................................................................................7 Model comparison .....................................................................................................................7 Results and discussion .................................................................................................................8 Diagnostic results ......................................................................................................................8 Temperature forecast models..................................................................................................10 Historic temperature trends ..................................................................................................10 Temperature-discharge correlations ....................................................................................10 Summer air anomaly ............................................................................................................11 Bootstrap method I: Environment Canada approach ........................................................11 Bootstrap method II: historic trend approach ....................................................................12 Spring air anomaly ...............................................................................................................13 Multiple regression analysis .................................................................................................14 Discharge forecast models ......................................................................................................15 Winter precipitation index .....................................................................................................15 Snowpack water volume forecast – discharge .....................................................................16 Snowpack water volume forecast – temperature .................................................................18 Ensemble flow technique .....................................................................................................19 Sensitivity analysis...................................................................................................................21 Seasonality...........................................................................................................................21 Multiple regression analysis ..............................................................................................21 June ensemble flow ..........................................................................................................23 Mean days............................................................................................................................25 Model comparison ...................................................................................................................26

iv Temperature forecasts .........................................................................................................26 Discharge forecasts .................................................................................................................28 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................30 Acknowledgements.....................................................................................................................31 Executive summary.....................................................................................................................31 Literature cited ............................................................................................................................32

LIST OF TABLES Table 1.

Median run timing dates for Hells Gate. ....................................................................2

Table 2.

Diagnostic tools for linear regression assumptions and potential correction techniques. ................................................................................................................3

Table 3.

Summary of linear regression diagnostic results for all forecasting methods and runtiming groups.............................................................................................................9

Table 4.

Sensitivity of mean temperature prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature; r2 = coefficient of determination for best fit linear regression) from the years – snowpack water volume multiple regression model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example..............................................................................25

Table 5.

Sensitivity of mean discharge prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature) from the June 2005 ensemble flow model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example..............................................................................25

Table 6.

Summary of pre-season temperature forecasting methods and the precision and bias of 2005 forecasts. Predicted means are presented in bold. r2 = coefficient of determination corresponding to best fit linear regression (adjusted r2 for the multiple regression models); CV = coefficient of variation (CV = (forecast standard deviation/forecast mean)*100); B = percent bias for 2005 (B = ((forecast mean – measured value)/measured value)*100). ................................................................26

Table 7.

Rank comparison of temperature forecasting methods. A lower rank indicates improved performance. In the case of a tie, equal ranks are applied to each model. Means represent averages over results for all three run-timing groups. .................28

Table 8.

Summaries of pre-season discharge forecasting methods and their precision and bias in 2005. Predicted means are presented in bold. r2 = coefficient of determination corresponding to best fit linear regression; CV = coefficient of variation ( CV = (forecast standard deviation/forecast mean)*100); B = percent bias for 2005 (B = ((forecast mean – measured value)/measured value)*100). .............29

Table 9.

Rank comparison of discharge forecasting methods. A lower rank indicates improved performance. In the case of a tie, equal ranks are applied to each model. Means represent averages over results for all three run-timing groups. .................30

v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.

Historic 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for the forecasted year (2005). Prediction intervals extend, on average, by ±1.5oC..................................................................................................10

Figure 2.

Historic 19-day mean discharge vs. 19-day mean temperature (open points) with best fit regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the mean predicted discharge and temperature are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to discharges predicted from the June 2005 ensemble flow model. ...........................11

Figure 3.

Summer air anomaly vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the mean predicted air anomaly and temperature are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the 60% “above normal”, 30% “near normal” and 10% “below normal” air temperature anomalies predicted by Environment Canada in 2005..................................................................................12

Figure 4.

Historic trend in summer air temperature anomaly shown with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for 2005 corresponding to a mean anomaly of 0.69oC. ................................................................................................................................13

Figure 5.

Spring air temperature anomalies vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for the forecasted year (2005). Forecasts correspond to the 2005 2.4oC spring anomaly. ......................................14

Figure 6.

Winter precipitation index vs. 19-day mean discharge trends with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for the forecasted year (2005). A precipitation anomaly of -25.9% was recorded for 2005, indicating a drier than average season. ................................................................................................................................15

Figure 7.

May snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean discharge trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean discharge are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the May 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 56 400 million m3 (93% of the historic norm) by the BC River Forecast Centre......................................................16

Figure 8.

June snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean discharge trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean discharge are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the June 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 41762 million m3, which was derived from the May 1 forecast of 56400 million m3 provided by the BC River Forecast Centre and the total Hope discharge observed during May 2005. ...........17

Figure 9.

Snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean discharge are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the May 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 56 400 million m3 (93% of the historic norm) by the BC River Forecast Centre......................................................18

vi Figure 10. June snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean temperature are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the June 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 41762 million m3, which was derived from the May 1 forecast of 56400 million m3 provided by the BC River Forecast Centre and the total Hope discharge observed during May 2005. ...........19 Figure 11. Forecasted daily river discharge using the May 2005 ensemble flow model (open circles) plotted with +/- 2 standard deviations (red error bars), and the historic mean discharge (black line). .............................................................................................20 Figure 12. Forecasted daily river discharge using the June 2005 ensemble flow model (open circles) plotted with +/- 2 standard deviations (red error bars), and the historic mean discharge (black line). .............................................................................................20 Figure 13. Time series analysis of the years - snowpack water volume multiple regression temperature prediction model illustrating the seasonal variability in 19-day mean temperature predictions and associated statistics. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions. ...............................................................................22 Figure 14. Time series analysis of the June 2005 ensemble flow model illustrating the variability in 19-day mean discharge predictions and associated statistics over time. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions.................................24

vii ABSTRACT Patterson, D.A. and Hague, M.J. 2007. Evaluation of long range summer forecasts of lower Fraser River discharge and temperature conditions. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2754: vii + 34 p. Extreme temperature and discharge conditions in the Fraser River adversely affect adult sockeye salmon migration success. Current fisheries management practices adjust harvest plans based on predicted summer temperature and discharge values. Therefore, the development of long range (~1 to 4 months) forecasts of environmental conditions will aid in pre-season harvest planning. This report evaluated several models used to make long range forecasts of summer conditions. Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) run-timing groups were used as a case study to illustrate model performance. Most models were best-fit using simple, or multiple, linear regressions. We quantified the uncertainty in the temperature and discharge forecasts arising from uncertainty in the model structure, and, where applicable, uncertainty in the predictor variable. Predictor variables include winter precipitation anomalies, spring and summer air temperature anomalies, water volume forecasts, and historic trends in water and air temperatures. Temperature forecast models performed comparably, and consistently predicted summer river temperatures with a coefficient of variation of less than 8% and an approximate standard deviation of 1°C. The precision of discharge forecasts deteriorated throughout the summer, and there was a trade-off between the availability of the forecast method and the precision of the results. In general, increasing the number of days used to calculate the predicted means led to small improvements in model fit, however there was only modest improvement going from 19-day to 31-day means. Recommendations of the most appropriate models were made based on model fit, forecast uncertainty and the timing of data availability. RESUMÉ Patterson, D.A. and Hague, M.J. 2007. Evaluation of long range summer forecasts of lower Fraser River discharge and temperature conditions. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2754: vii + 34 p. Les températures extrêmes et les conditions d’écoulement dans le Fraser sont réputées pour diminuer la réussite de la migration des saumons rouges adultes. Les stratégies actuelles de gestion des pêcheries ajustent les prévisions de pêche aux valeurs prédites concernant les températures estivales et le flux dans le Fraser. Ainsi, le développement de prévisions à long terme (1 à 4 mois) des conditions environnementales va aider à mettre en place des programmes de pêche pour l’avant saison. Ce rapport a évalué plusieurs modèles utilisés pour faire des prévisions à long terme des conditions estivales. L’étude du cas des saumons rouges du Fraser (Oncorhynchus nerka), migrant à différentes époques selon le groupe, a servi à illustrer les performances des modèles. La plupart des modèles étaient le plus en adéquation avec des régressions linéaires simples ou multiples. Nous avons quantifié les incertitudes concernant les prévisions des températures et des écoulements résultant des incertitudes de la structure du modèle, et quand c’était possible, des incertitudes des variables indice. Les variables indice incluent les anomalies des précipitations hivernales, les anomalies de température de l’air du printemps et de l’été, les prédictions des volumes d’eau et les évolutions historiques de la température de l’air et du fleuve. Les modèles de prévision de la température estivale du fleuve ont donné des résultats très proches et tous avec un coefficient de variation de moins de 8% et un écart moyen d’environ 1 °C. La précision des prévisions de l’écoulement a diminué au cours de l’été, et il y eut un compromis entre la commodité de la méthode de prévision et la précision des résultats. En général, l’augmentation du nombre de jours sur lesquels la moyenne est calculée a mené à des améliorations légères de la correspondance du modèle aux résultats, cependant il n’y eut que de modestes améliorations en passant de moyennes de 19 à 31 jours. Les conseils prodigués pour choisir les modèles les plus appropriés se sont basés sur la correspondance du modèle, l’incertitude des prévisions et la période des données disponibles.

INTRODUCTION Environmental conditions experienced by upstream migrating salmon have a direct influence on their survival (e.g. Quinn et al. 1997; Naughton et al. 2005). In the Fraser River, high en route mortality is correlated to severe environmental conditions experienced by migrating adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (Macdonald 2000; Macdonald et al. 2000; Patterson et al. 2007a). High temperatures influence sockeye salmon migratory success by impairing swimming ability (Salinger and Anderson 1996; Lee et al. 2003; Naughton et al. 2005) through increasing energy expenditures (Brett 1995), stress (Fagerlund et al. 1995) and susceptibility to disease (Macdonald et al. 2000; Wagner et al. 2005). There is also a negative correlation between high discharge and up-river migration success (Rand and Hinch 1998; Macdonald et al. 2000). High discharge values are associated with high river velocities and therefore slower migration rates (Quinn et al. 1997) and higher energy expenditures (Rand and Hinch 1998). In the Fraser River, velocity barriers are also present near Hells Gate at discharge values in excess of 8000 m3 • s-1 (Macdonald 2000). Given the relationships between salmon survival and environmental conditions, forecasts of Fraser River summer conditions are of particular interest to fisheries managers. Currently, the Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) Environmental Watch Program provides long range (i.e. 1 – 4 months in advance) forecasts of environmental conditions to fisheries managers for use in their pre-season planning process (D. Patterson, DFO, pers. comm. 2006). Specifically, managers use pre-season (D. Patterson, DFO, pers. comm. 2006), and in-season (Morrison 2005), Fraser River temperature and discharge forecasts to generate estimates of the expected differences between lower river escapements estimated at Mission and spawning ground escapements (after accounting for in-river catch). The current approach uses a Difference Between Estimates (DBE), also known as Management Adjustment (MA), model that fits a nonlinear simple or multiple regression relationship between historic temperature and/or discharge data, and differences between potential and actual spawning ground escapement estimates. In general, Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer run-timing groups use the same MA model framework (I. Guthrie, Pacific Salmon Commission, Vancouver, BC, pers. comm. 2006). Preseason forecasts of summer river conditions provide an early indication to managers of the expected discrepancy between potential (Mission) and observed spawning abundance; however, the reliability of the DBE or MA estimates are limited by the uncertainty inherent in making environmental predictions derived from long range forecasts (e.g. Moore 2006). Providing fisheries managers with quantified estimates of the reliability of environmental forecasts used in the management adjustment models will facilitate a more informed decisionmaking process. The purpose of this technical report is to evaluate the use of different environmental variables to generate long range forecast models for predicting Fraser River summer water temperature and discharge. Diagnostic assessments are used to identify the appropriate model structure for each relationship. Next, uncertainty associated with both the environmental input variable and forecast model structure is quantified. Finally, model sensitivity is explored with respect to seasonality of forecast dates, and time frames used to calculate mean temperature and discharge values. Specifically, this report evaluates eight long range forecasting methods:1) historic river temperature trends, 2) winter precipitation index, 3) snowpack water volume forecasts, 4) an ensemble flow model, 5) temperature – discharge correlations, 6) forecasted summer air temperature anomalies, 7) measured spring air temperature anomalies, and 8) various multiple regression models which combine two of the above methods. The following sections describe model structure, linear regression diagnostics, and methods used to quantify model uncertainty. The report concludes with a retrospective analysis of 2005 forecasts and provides recommendations regarding forecasting methods and future research directions.

2 METHODS MODEL STRUCTURE All models and simulations were performed using the freeware statistical analysis package R (http://cran.r-project.org/). Model flexibility was emphasised, allowing investigators to vary several input sources (e.g. predictor and response variables, median run-timing date, number of days used to calculate mean temperature and discharge), and facilitating sensitivity analyses and data updates. Fraser River sockeye salmon run-timing groups were used as case specific examples to illustrate the predictive capacity of forecast models over the course of the summer season. The run-timing dates used in the models represent the expected mid-point of temperature/discharge exposure for each salmon run group at a specific station in the lower Fraser River. Specific values for each run-timing group (Early Stuart, Early Summer, and Summer) reflect the expected median passage date for Hells Gate (Table 1). Hells Gate dates were computed by adding five days to the median date calculated from 1977-2005 Mission run-timing information (collected by the Pacific Salmon Commission; Woodey 1987). Temperature and discharge data were calculated as 19-day symmetric means (9-days before and 9-days after historic Hells Gate dates). A 19-day period was selected to represent the average lower-river environmental conditions experienced by the incoming run, and is the length of the period currently used for inseason DBE forecasts. Table 1. Median run timing dates for Hells Gate. Run Timing Group Early Stuart

Date July 14

Early Summer

August 6

Summer

August 17

Historic temperature and discharge values represent a 1950-2004 time series. Temperature data recorded at Hells Gate was collected over time by the International Pacific Salmon Fisheries Commission, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and most recently by the DFO Environmental Watch Program (Patterson et al. 2007b). Discharge data recorded at Hope was extracted from the online Environment Canada Water Survey of Canada database (http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/). DIAGNOSTIC TESTS The raw data structure was explored to determine whether the assumptions for linear regressions between environmental forecast predictors and mean temperature and discharge were met. If assumptions were not met then additional models were applied to determine whether the data was better fit using an alternative model structure. A summary of diagnostic tests and corrective procedures are presented in Table 2. If the data indicated non-linearities, the fit of the linear regression was compared to the fit of polynomial models, using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) (Maindonald and Braun 2003), and log-linear models, through a chi-squared goodness of fit procedure (Zar 1996). If the nonlinear models did not provide a significantly better fit to the data, and the linear regression was still significant, then a linear regression was performed. In cases of autocorrelations, the program fit a moving average model to the data and then tested whether the moving average

3 model provided a statistically better fit than the linear regression (Venables and Ripley 2002; Maindonald and Braun 2003). If the fits were not significantly different, then the program defaulted to a simple linear regression. If the data showed evidence of heteroscedasticity a log transformation or a weighted least squares analysis (Zar 1996) was performed. Table 2. Diagnostic tools for linear regression assumptions and potential correction techniques. Model Assumption

Evidence

Correction

Linearity – the data is best fit assuming a linear relationship

Plot residual vs. predicted values. A bowed pattern indicates nonlinearity.

A linear model may not be appropriate for this data, and a non-linear model (e.g. polynomial regression) may be more appropriate. Alternatively, try transforming the data (e.g. log transform).

Independence of Errors – values of ‘y’ are independent of each other

Plot an autocorrelation function of the residuals. If autocorrelations fall outside the 95% confidence limits, there maybe autocorrelation (often occurs in time series data). Test using a Ljung-Box test.

Apply a moving average regression model.

Homoscedasticity – equal variances around each ‘y’ value

Plot residuals vs. predicted values. If residuals show increasing spread over predicted values there is evidence of heteroscedasticity.

Apply a weighted least squares regression or a log transformation.

Normality – errors come from a normal distribution

Create a normal probability plot of residuals; distribution should be the same as for a random normal distribution.

Apply a general linear model; try transforming for non-linearity; remove unexplainable outliers.

Errors in Variables observations of x are obtained without error.

Fails for several provided datasets where predictions are based on forecasted values.

Apply a mean functional regression or bootstrap technique.

FORECASTING METHODS The following section provides a description of each forecast method, the nature of the data used for each method and the procedures used to quantify the uncertainty in the temperature or discharge prediction. The statistical techniques utilised to estimate forecast uncertainty for each method are described. Forecasted or measured environmental variables for 2005 were used as examples in all cases.

4 Temperature forecast models Historic temperature trends Water temperatures in the lower Fraser have been increasing since the first continuous records were established in 1953 (Foreman et al. 2001; Patterson et al. 2007b). Therefore, a linear regression fit between years and historic 19-day mean river temperature was evaluated to determine if the historic temporal trend could be used to make predictions of water temperature in the following year for each run timing group. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast was quantified using simple linear regression prediction intervals and residual standard errors (standard deviation of the error distribution). Temperature-discharge correlation Past observations have often noted negative correlations between river temperature and discharge (Quinn et al. 1997; Macdonald et al. 2000; Naughton 2005; Moore 2006). Predicting temperature, and its associated error, directly from forecasted discharge may eliminate the need to forecast temperature from other data sources, such as the historic trend or spring and summer air anomalies. As the current discharge forecast will be uncertain, this estimation procedure violates the linear regression assumption of negligible error in the predictor variable. Therefore, the estimation of temperature uncertainty required quantification of both model and predictor variable uncertainty. Uncertainty in forecasted discharge was modelled as a normal distribution with error equivalent to the standard deviation derived from the applied discharge forecasting method (see Discharge forecast models). Temperature was then predicted from each of 500 bootstrapped discharges using a simple linear regression model fit between 19-day mean discharge and 19-day mean temperature. Model uncertainty was incorporated into the final prediction by performing a nonparametric bootstrap of model residuals (Chernick 1999). A bootstrapped residual error term was added to each predicted temperature value. Eighty-percent confidence intervals were calculated using the 10th and 90th percentiles of the bootstrapped data. The generation of bootstrapped prediction intervals involves a more complex statistical analysis (Stine 1985), which was not completed here. Error structure was also presented as the standard deviation of the bootstrapped predictions. Summer air anomaly On June 1, Environment Canada (EC) posts predictions of summer air temperature, and reports this data in the form of an air temperature anomaly, varying from the mean, or “normal”, temperature averaged over 1951-1980 (http://weather.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html). Environment Canada generates twelve anomaly values using two different forecasting models. Each forecast is specified as “near normal”, “below normal”, or “above normal”, and the 12 model results are divided into each category. The category thresholds are spaced equidistant apart, at intervals equal to 0.43 times the inter-annual seasonal temperature standard deviation. However, these forecasts are highly uncertain, and the probability that the true forecast falls within a given range is un-calibrated (not compared to true historic trends) due to a lack of available data (http://weather.ec.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=pc_dyn_jja1_temp). Previous attempts to utilise the summer air temperature anomaly forecast include selecting a reasonable percentile from the historic anomalies given the probabilistic forecasts, or creating a categorical river temperature prediction matrix given the relationship between river temperature

5 and predicted flow and air temperature (“low”, ”normal”, “high”) (J. Morrison, VYNX design, Sidney, unpub. data). This report evaluates two new approaches for quantifying air temperature forecast uncertainty using bootstrap methods. The first method attempts to mimic the actual forecasting process as outlined on the EC website. The second method predicts forecast error using the historic summer air anomaly trend. To mimic the forecasting process described by Environment Canada, 500 counts of “near normal”, “below normal”, and “above normal” forecasts were generated using a multinomial distribution and 2005 forecast probabilities. The probability that the true anomaly will fall correctly into each category was determined from un-calibrated EC forecast probability maps, and then roughly adjusted using forecast reliability plots provided on the EC website. For example, if the probability that the true anomaly is “above normal” is 20-30% but the reliability data indicates that the observed frequencies of “above normal” anomalies are underestimated when the forecasted probability is 0.45) from approximately July 10 – July 25 (Figure 13A). The adjusted r2 value then declined over time (tracked until September 6), with the exception of another plateau in mid-August. The plateaus may occur because the year – temperature relationship improves from early July until late August, while the volume – temperature relationship weakens, occasionally balancing each other out. The declining adjusted r2 trend observed in the temperature – volume relationship ultimately dominates the overall trend observed for the multiple regression because volume explains a greater percentage of the variability in historic temperature. Despite the decline in explained variability, the regression slope remained significant throughout the date range examined (Figure 13B). Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) represent absolute and relative error measures, respectively (Figure 13C and D). The CV in mean temperature declined until early August, as river temperature (Figure 13F) continued to rise but SD remained roughly constant. Both the CV and predicted temperature plateaued during mid-August, roughly coinciding with the plateau in r2. During the same period, 2005 predictions were also relatively unbiased (percent bias ~ -1 to 1%; Figure 13E). The model plateau is of particular interest, as it suggests that the model is less sensitive to uncertainties in run-timing dates during mid-August than variability arising earlier or later in the season. The decline in model performance after August may signify the approximate time when the majority of the snowmelt has passed through Hells Gate, and river temperature becomes more dependent on other proximate factors. The rapid model deterioration illustrates the time span limitations of this pre-season forecasting approach. For example, the model is not significant for median dates historically associated with the Late run-timing group (historic median date = September 13). If the unusually late run-timings observed in 2005 become the norm (July 27th, September 3rd, and September 4th, for the Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer groups, respectively), most of the pre-season forecast methods will no longer be suitable for predicting river conditions for Early Summer and Summer groups. In contrast, if Late run fish continue their current trend of entering the Fraser River from mid-August to early September, (as opposed to their historic timing of late September to early October; Lapointe et al. 2003; Cooke et al. 2004), then it may become possible to generate pre-season forecasts for this run-timing group.

22 2

Seasonal Variation in P Values

P-value

0.35 0.15

0.25

R

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

Median Date

Median Date

Seasonal Variation in CV

Seasonal Variation in SD

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

1.06

D

0.94

SD ( oC )

C

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

Median Date

Median Date

Seasonal Variation in Percent Bias

Seasonal Variation in Predicted Mean

6-Sep 60

0 10-Jul 0

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30 Median Date

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

17.5

18.0 18

F

17.0 17

1

2

3

4

E

Predicted Mean ( oC )

5

18.5

10-Jul 0

Percent Bias

19-Jul 10

0.98 1 1.02

19-Jul 10

5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6 6.2 6.4

Coefficient of Variation

10-Jul 0

B

16.5

2

0.45

A

0.000 0 0.005 0.010 0.01 0.015 0.020 0.02

Seasonal Variation in R

10-Jul 0

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

Median Date

Figure 13. Time series analysis of the years - snowpack water volume multiple regression temperature prediction model illustrating the seasonal variability in 19-day mean temperature predictions and associated statistics. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions.

23 June ensemble flow Figure 14 illustrates a deteriorating trend in the performance of the ensemble flow model over time. Again, the decline in model power may reflect the decreasing influence of snowpack water volume (used to create the ensemble) on river discharge as the season progresses (r2 and pvalues were not generated because the ensemble model does not use linear regression). A comparison between Tables 6 and 8 illustrates the larger CVs associated with discharge forecasts as opposed to temperature forecasts. There are also no plateau regions, as observed with the multiple regression model. These results highlight the limitations in using long range ensemble flow discharge predictions later in the summer season.

24 Seasonal Variation in CV

20 18 14

16

Coefficient of Variation

700 690 680 660

670

SD ( cms )

710

22

720

Seasonal Variation in SD

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

50

6-Sep 60

Median Date

Seasonal Variation in Percent Bias

Seasonal Variation in Predicted Mean

4500 4000 3500

10 -10

0

Percent Bias

20

Predicted Mean ( cms )

30

Median Date

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

Median Date

50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

50

6-Sep 60

Median Date

Figure 14. Time series analysis of the June 2005 ensemble flow model illustrating the variability in 19-day mean discharge predictions and associated statistics over time. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions.

25 Mean days The examples provided thus far analysed symmetric 19-day mean temperature and discharge averages centred on the Hells Gate 50% date. The 19-day period was selected for the sockeye salmon examples, based on the assumption that this range captures most of the conditions experienced by each run-timing group as they pass Hells Gate. For example, previous DBE models for Fraser River sockeye salmon management have used both 19-day and 31-day means (D. Patterson, DFO, pers. comm. 2006; I. Guthrie, PSC, pers. comm. 2006). The sensitivity of predictions to the number of days used to generate mean temperature and discharge is illustrated in Tables 4 and 5. Increasing the number of days used to calculate the mean does lead to small improvements in the CV of predicted temperature and the adjusted r2 calculated from the multiple regression model (Table 4). The improvements are most noticeable moving from a 3-day to 11-day mean. Similar trends were observed for the ensemble flow discharge predictions (Table 5). Increasing the number of days likely improves model performance by smoothing out sources of higher frequency variation in the data that do not contribute to the covariation between the environmental time series (Pyper and Peterman 1998). Table 4. Sensitivity of mean temperature prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature; r2 = coefficient of determination for best fit linear regression) from the years – snowpack water volume multiple regression model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example. 3-day

11-day

19-day

31-day

Predicted o mean ( C)

16.61

16.59

16.58

16.77

CV (%)

7.28

6.57

6.39

6.26

r2

0.39

0.47

0.49

0.52

Table 5. Sensitivity of mean discharge prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature) from the June 2005 ensemble flow model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example. 3-day

11-day

19-day

31-day

Predicted mean (cms)

4719

4698

4685

4668

CV (%)

15.15

13.58

12.27

11.31

26 MODEL COMPARISON Temperature forecasts A retrospective analysis of 2005 pre-season temperature forecasts is presented in Table 6. Both summer air anomaly forecasting methods performed similarly, so only the historic trend technique (bootstrap method II) is provided for illustrative purposes. Performance metrics include the mean predicted temperature, the r2 value corresponding to the best-fit linear regression, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the predicted value. The percent bias presented is only associated with the 2005 prediction and may not be representative of bias trends in alternate years. Table 6. Summary of pre-season temperature forecasting methods and the precision and bias of 2005 forecasts. Predicted means are presented in bold. r2 = coefficient of determination corresponding to best fit linear regression (adjusted r2 for the multiple regression models); CV = coefficient of variation (CV = (forecast standard deviation/forecast mean)*100); B = percent bias for 2005 (B = ((forecast mean – measured value)/measured value)*100). Method Historic temperature trend

Snowpack water volume (May)

Snowpack water volume (June)

Availability

Early Stuart

18.26 C 2 r = 11% CV = 6.00% B = 0.33%

o

17.97 C 2 r = 26% CV = 5.73% B = -1.26%

o

18.13 C 2 r = 31% CV = 5.68% B = -0.38%

o

18.41 C 2 r = 29% CV = 5.54% B = 1.15%

o

18.41 C 2 r = 38% CV = 6.19% B = 1.15%

o

18.18 C 2 r = 56% CV = 5.33% B = -0.11%

o

17.85 C 2 r = 29% CV = 6.33% B = -1.92%

o

18.06 C 2 r = 51% CV = 6.20% B = -0.77%

o

Anytime

16.38 C 2 r = 9.4% CV = 7.45% B = 1.74%

May

16.26 C 2 r = 46% CV = 6.89% B = 0.99%

June

Early Summer

o

16.44 C 2 r = 52% CV = 6.67% B = 2.11%

Summer

o

18.22 C 2 r = 17% CV = 5.71% B = -0.44%

o

o

17.66 C 2 r = 13% CV = 6.17% B = -3.50%

o

17.80 C 2 r = 17% CV = 5.90% B = 5.31%

o

18.31 C 2 r = 21% CV = 5.68% B = 0.05%

o

18.13 C 2 r = 43% CV = 6.01% B = -0.09%

o

17.94 C 2 r = 45% CV = 6.02% B = -1.97%

o

17.51 C 2 r = 21% CV = 6.62% B = -4.32%

o

17.86 C 2 r = 45% CV = 5.71% B = -2.40%

o

o

o

o

April

16.58 C 2 r = 47% CV = 6.39% B = 2.98%

June

16.71 C 2 r = 28% CV = 7.36% B = 3.79%

June

16.43 C 2 r = 65% CV = 6.57% B = 2.05%

Temperaturedischarge correlation (June ensemble)

June

16.50 C 2 r = 62% CV = 6.24% B = 2.48%

Summer air anomaly (historic trend bootstrap)

Anytime

16.23 C 2 r = 45% CV = 7.27% B = 0.80%

June

16.96 C 2 r = 29% CV = 5.90% B = 5.34%

18.78 C 2 r = 34% CV = 5.06% B = 3.19%

18.43 C 2 r = 26% CV = 5.32% B = 0.71%

16.1 oC

18.2 oC

18.3 oC

Years – snowpack water volume multiple regression analysis Historic trend – ensemble multiple regression analysis (June data) Summer air anomaly – snowpack water volume multiple regression analysis

Spring air anomaly

2005 Measured

o

o

o

o

o

27 The temperature forecasting methods performed comparably well. Percent bias for 2005 forecasts was typically

D.A. Patterson and M.J. Hague

Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Branch, Pacific Region Co-operative Resource Management Institute School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC

2007

Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2754

ii

Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2754

2007

EVALUATION OF LONG RANGE SUMMER FORECASTS OF LOWER FRASER RIVER DISCHARGE AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS

by

D.A. Patterson and M.J. Hague

Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Branch, Pacific Region CRMI c/o School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Burnaby BC V5A 1S6

ii

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2007. Cat. No. Fs 97-6/2754E ISSN 0706-6457

Correct citation for this publication: Patterson, D.A. and Hague, M.J. 2007. Evaluation of long range summer forecasts of lower Fraser River discharge and temperature conditions. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2754: vii + 34 p.

iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables................................................................................................................................ iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... v Abstract....................................................................................................................................... vii Introduction ...................................................................................................................................1 Methods ........................................................................................................................................2 Model structure ..........................................................................................................................2 Diagnostic tests .........................................................................................................................2 Forecasting methods .................................................................................................................3 Temperature forecast models ................................................................................................4 Historic temperature trends.................................................................................................4 Temperature-discharge correlation .....................................................................................4 Summer air anomaly ...........................................................................................................4 Spring air anomaly ..............................................................................................................5 Multiple regression ..............................................................................................................5 Discharge forecasts................................................................................................................6 Winter precipitation index....................................................................................................6 Snowpack water volume forecast .......................................................................................6 Ensemble flow technique ....................................................................................................7 Sensitivity analyses ...................................................................................................................7 Model comparison .....................................................................................................................7 Results and discussion .................................................................................................................8 Diagnostic results ......................................................................................................................8 Temperature forecast models..................................................................................................10 Historic temperature trends ..................................................................................................10 Temperature-discharge correlations ....................................................................................10 Summer air anomaly ............................................................................................................11 Bootstrap method I: Environment Canada approach ........................................................11 Bootstrap method II: historic trend approach ....................................................................12 Spring air anomaly ...............................................................................................................13 Multiple regression analysis .................................................................................................14 Discharge forecast models ......................................................................................................15 Winter precipitation index .....................................................................................................15 Snowpack water volume forecast – discharge .....................................................................16 Snowpack water volume forecast – temperature .................................................................18 Ensemble flow technique .....................................................................................................19 Sensitivity analysis...................................................................................................................21 Seasonality...........................................................................................................................21 Multiple regression analysis ..............................................................................................21 June ensemble flow ..........................................................................................................23 Mean days............................................................................................................................25 Model comparison ...................................................................................................................26

iv Temperature forecasts .........................................................................................................26 Discharge forecasts .................................................................................................................28 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................30 Acknowledgements.....................................................................................................................31 Executive summary.....................................................................................................................31 Literature cited ............................................................................................................................32

LIST OF TABLES Table 1.

Median run timing dates for Hells Gate. ....................................................................2

Table 2.

Diagnostic tools for linear regression assumptions and potential correction techniques. ................................................................................................................3

Table 3.

Summary of linear regression diagnostic results for all forecasting methods and runtiming groups.............................................................................................................9

Table 4.

Sensitivity of mean temperature prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature; r2 = coefficient of determination for best fit linear regression) from the years – snowpack water volume multiple regression model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example..............................................................................25

Table 5.

Sensitivity of mean discharge prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature) from the June 2005 ensemble flow model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example..............................................................................25

Table 6.

Summary of pre-season temperature forecasting methods and the precision and bias of 2005 forecasts. Predicted means are presented in bold. r2 = coefficient of determination corresponding to best fit linear regression (adjusted r2 for the multiple regression models); CV = coefficient of variation (CV = (forecast standard deviation/forecast mean)*100); B = percent bias for 2005 (B = ((forecast mean – measured value)/measured value)*100). ................................................................26

Table 7.

Rank comparison of temperature forecasting methods. A lower rank indicates improved performance. In the case of a tie, equal ranks are applied to each model. Means represent averages over results for all three run-timing groups. .................28

Table 8.

Summaries of pre-season discharge forecasting methods and their precision and bias in 2005. Predicted means are presented in bold. r2 = coefficient of determination corresponding to best fit linear regression; CV = coefficient of variation ( CV = (forecast standard deviation/forecast mean)*100); B = percent bias for 2005 (B = ((forecast mean – measured value)/measured value)*100). .............29

Table 9.

Rank comparison of discharge forecasting methods. A lower rank indicates improved performance. In the case of a tie, equal ranks are applied to each model. Means represent averages over results for all three run-timing groups. .................30

v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.

Historic 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for the forecasted year (2005). Prediction intervals extend, on average, by ±1.5oC..................................................................................................10

Figure 2.

Historic 19-day mean discharge vs. 19-day mean temperature (open points) with best fit regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the mean predicted discharge and temperature are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to discharges predicted from the June 2005 ensemble flow model. ...........................11

Figure 3.

Summer air anomaly vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the mean predicted air anomaly and temperature are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the 60% “above normal”, 30% “near normal” and 10% “below normal” air temperature anomalies predicted by Environment Canada in 2005..................................................................................12

Figure 4.

Historic trend in summer air temperature anomaly shown with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for 2005 corresponding to a mean anomaly of 0.69oC. ................................................................................................................................13

Figure 5.

Spring air temperature anomalies vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for the forecasted year (2005). Forecasts correspond to the 2005 2.4oC spring anomaly. ......................................14

Figure 6.

Winter precipitation index vs. 19-day mean discharge trends with fitted regression line and 80% prediction intervals for the forecasted year (2005). A precipitation anomaly of -25.9% was recorded for 2005, indicating a drier than average season. ................................................................................................................................15

Figure 7.

May snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean discharge trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean discharge are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the May 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 56 400 million m3 (93% of the historic norm) by the BC River Forecast Centre......................................................16

Figure 8.

June snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean discharge trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean discharge are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the June 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 41762 million m3, which was derived from the May 1 forecast of 56400 million m3 provided by the BC River Forecast Centre and the total Hope discharge observed during May 2005. ...........17

Figure 9.

Snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean discharge are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the May 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 56 400 million m3 (93% of the historic norm) by the BC River Forecast Centre......................................................18

vi Figure 10. June snowpack water volume vs. 19-day mean temperature trends with fitted regression line. Bootstrapped 80% confidence limits for the 2005 volume forecast and predicted mean temperature are shown in red. The 80% prediction intervals generated by the linear regression are overlaid in blue. Forecasts correspond to the June 1 mean snowpack water volume prediction of 41762 million m3, which was derived from the May 1 forecast of 56400 million m3 provided by the BC River Forecast Centre and the total Hope discharge observed during May 2005. ...........19 Figure 11. Forecasted daily river discharge using the May 2005 ensemble flow model (open circles) plotted with +/- 2 standard deviations (red error bars), and the historic mean discharge (black line). .............................................................................................20 Figure 12. Forecasted daily river discharge using the June 2005 ensemble flow model (open circles) plotted with +/- 2 standard deviations (red error bars), and the historic mean discharge (black line). .............................................................................................20 Figure 13. Time series analysis of the years - snowpack water volume multiple regression temperature prediction model illustrating the seasonal variability in 19-day mean temperature predictions and associated statistics. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions. ...............................................................................22 Figure 14. Time series analysis of the June 2005 ensemble flow model illustrating the variability in 19-day mean discharge predictions and associated statistics over time. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions.................................24

vii ABSTRACT Patterson, D.A. and Hague, M.J. 2007. Evaluation of long range summer forecasts of lower Fraser River discharge and temperature conditions. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2754: vii + 34 p. Extreme temperature and discharge conditions in the Fraser River adversely affect adult sockeye salmon migration success. Current fisheries management practices adjust harvest plans based on predicted summer temperature and discharge values. Therefore, the development of long range (~1 to 4 months) forecasts of environmental conditions will aid in pre-season harvest planning. This report evaluated several models used to make long range forecasts of summer conditions. Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) run-timing groups were used as a case study to illustrate model performance. Most models were best-fit using simple, or multiple, linear regressions. We quantified the uncertainty in the temperature and discharge forecasts arising from uncertainty in the model structure, and, where applicable, uncertainty in the predictor variable. Predictor variables include winter precipitation anomalies, spring and summer air temperature anomalies, water volume forecasts, and historic trends in water and air temperatures. Temperature forecast models performed comparably, and consistently predicted summer river temperatures with a coefficient of variation of less than 8% and an approximate standard deviation of 1°C. The precision of discharge forecasts deteriorated throughout the summer, and there was a trade-off between the availability of the forecast method and the precision of the results. In general, increasing the number of days used to calculate the predicted means led to small improvements in model fit, however there was only modest improvement going from 19-day to 31-day means. Recommendations of the most appropriate models were made based on model fit, forecast uncertainty and the timing of data availability. RESUMÉ Patterson, D.A. and Hague, M.J. 2007. Evaluation of long range summer forecasts of lower Fraser River discharge and temperature conditions. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2754: vii + 34 p. Les températures extrêmes et les conditions d’écoulement dans le Fraser sont réputées pour diminuer la réussite de la migration des saumons rouges adultes. Les stratégies actuelles de gestion des pêcheries ajustent les prévisions de pêche aux valeurs prédites concernant les températures estivales et le flux dans le Fraser. Ainsi, le développement de prévisions à long terme (1 à 4 mois) des conditions environnementales va aider à mettre en place des programmes de pêche pour l’avant saison. Ce rapport a évalué plusieurs modèles utilisés pour faire des prévisions à long terme des conditions estivales. L’étude du cas des saumons rouges du Fraser (Oncorhynchus nerka), migrant à différentes époques selon le groupe, a servi à illustrer les performances des modèles. La plupart des modèles étaient le plus en adéquation avec des régressions linéaires simples ou multiples. Nous avons quantifié les incertitudes concernant les prévisions des températures et des écoulements résultant des incertitudes de la structure du modèle, et quand c’était possible, des incertitudes des variables indice. Les variables indice incluent les anomalies des précipitations hivernales, les anomalies de température de l’air du printemps et de l’été, les prédictions des volumes d’eau et les évolutions historiques de la température de l’air et du fleuve. Les modèles de prévision de la température estivale du fleuve ont donné des résultats très proches et tous avec un coefficient de variation de moins de 8% et un écart moyen d’environ 1 °C. La précision des prévisions de l’écoulement a diminué au cours de l’été, et il y eut un compromis entre la commodité de la méthode de prévision et la précision des résultats. En général, l’augmentation du nombre de jours sur lesquels la moyenne est calculée a mené à des améliorations légères de la correspondance du modèle aux résultats, cependant il n’y eut que de modestes améliorations en passant de moyennes de 19 à 31 jours. Les conseils prodigués pour choisir les modèles les plus appropriés se sont basés sur la correspondance du modèle, l’incertitude des prévisions et la période des données disponibles.

INTRODUCTION Environmental conditions experienced by upstream migrating salmon have a direct influence on their survival (e.g. Quinn et al. 1997; Naughton et al. 2005). In the Fraser River, high en route mortality is correlated to severe environmental conditions experienced by migrating adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (Macdonald 2000; Macdonald et al. 2000; Patterson et al. 2007a). High temperatures influence sockeye salmon migratory success by impairing swimming ability (Salinger and Anderson 1996; Lee et al. 2003; Naughton et al. 2005) through increasing energy expenditures (Brett 1995), stress (Fagerlund et al. 1995) and susceptibility to disease (Macdonald et al. 2000; Wagner et al. 2005). There is also a negative correlation between high discharge and up-river migration success (Rand and Hinch 1998; Macdonald et al. 2000). High discharge values are associated with high river velocities and therefore slower migration rates (Quinn et al. 1997) and higher energy expenditures (Rand and Hinch 1998). In the Fraser River, velocity barriers are also present near Hells Gate at discharge values in excess of 8000 m3 • s-1 (Macdonald 2000). Given the relationships between salmon survival and environmental conditions, forecasts of Fraser River summer conditions are of particular interest to fisheries managers. Currently, the Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) Environmental Watch Program provides long range (i.e. 1 – 4 months in advance) forecasts of environmental conditions to fisheries managers for use in their pre-season planning process (D. Patterson, DFO, pers. comm. 2006). Specifically, managers use pre-season (D. Patterson, DFO, pers. comm. 2006), and in-season (Morrison 2005), Fraser River temperature and discharge forecasts to generate estimates of the expected differences between lower river escapements estimated at Mission and spawning ground escapements (after accounting for in-river catch). The current approach uses a Difference Between Estimates (DBE), also known as Management Adjustment (MA), model that fits a nonlinear simple or multiple regression relationship between historic temperature and/or discharge data, and differences between potential and actual spawning ground escapement estimates. In general, Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer run-timing groups use the same MA model framework (I. Guthrie, Pacific Salmon Commission, Vancouver, BC, pers. comm. 2006). Preseason forecasts of summer river conditions provide an early indication to managers of the expected discrepancy between potential (Mission) and observed spawning abundance; however, the reliability of the DBE or MA estimates are limited by the uncertainty inherent in making environmental predictions derived from long range forecasts (e.g. Moore 2006). Providing fisheries managers with quantified estimates of the reliability of environmental forecasts used in the management adjustment models will facilitate a more informed decisionmaking process. The purpose of this technical report is to evaluate the use of different environmental variables to generate long range forecast models for predicting Fraser River summer water temperature and discharge. Diagnostic assessments are used to identify the appropriate model structure for each relationship. Next, uncertainty associated with both the environmental input variable and forecast model structure is quantified. Finally, model sensitivity is explored with respect to seasonality of forecast dates, and time frames used to calculate mean temperature and discharge values. Specifically, this report evaluates eight long range forecasting methods:1) historic river temperature trends, 2) winter precipitation index, 3) snowpack water volume forecasts, 4) an ensemble flow model, 5) temperature – discharge correlations, 6) forecasted summer air temperature anomalies, 7) measured spring air temperature anomalies, and 8) various multiple regression models which combine two of the above methods. The following sections describe model structure, linear regression diagnostics, and methods used to quantify model uncertainty. The report concludes with a retrospective analysis of 2005 forecasts and provides recommendations regarding forecasting methods and future research directions.

2 METHODS MODEL STRUCTURE All models and simulations were performed using the freeware statistical analysis package R (http://cran.r-project.org/). Model flexibility was emphasised, allowing investigators to vary several input sources (e.g. predictor and response variables, median run-timing date, number of days used to calculate mean temperature and discharge), and facilitating sensitivity analyses and data updates. Fraser River sockeye salmon run-timing groups were used as case specific examples to illustrate the predictive capacity of forecast models over the course of the summer season. The run-timing dates used in the models represent the expected mid-point of temperature/discharge exposure for each salmon run group at a specific station in the lower Fraser River. Specific values for each run-timing group (Early Stuart, Early Summer, and Summer) reflect the expected median passage date for Hells Gate (Table 1). Hells Gate dates were computed by adding five days to the median date calculated from 1977-2005 Mission run-timing information (collected by the Pacific Salmon Commission; Woodey 1987). Temperature and discharge data were calculated as 19-day symmetric means (9-days before and 9-days after historic Hells Gate dates). A 19-day period was selected to represent the average lower-river environmental conditions experienced by the incoming run, and is the length of the period currently used for inseason DBE forecasts. Table 1. Median run timing dates for Hells Gate. Run Timing Group Early Stuart

Date July 14

Early Summer

August 6

Summer

August 17

Historic temperature and discharge values represent a 1950-2004 time series. Temperature data recorded at Hells Gate was collected over time by the International Pacific Salmon Fisheries Commission, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and most recently by the DFO Environmental Watch Program (Patterson et al. 2007b). Discharge data recorded at Hope was extracted from the online Environment Canada Water Survey of Canada database (http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/). DIAGNOSTIC TESTS The raw data structure was explored to determine whether the assumptions for linear regressions between environmental forecast predictors and mean temperature and discharge were met. If assumptions were not met then additional models were applied to determine whether the data was better fit using an alternative model structure. A summary of diagnostic tests and corrective procedures are presented in Table 2. If the data indicated non-linearities, the fit of the linear regression was compared to the fit of polynomial models, using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) (Maindonald and Braun 2003), and log-linear models, through a chi-squared goodness of fit procedure (Zar 1996). If the nonlinear models did not provide a significantly better fit to the data, and the linear regression was still significant, then a linear regression was performed. In cases of autocorrelations, the program fit a moving average model to the data and then tested whether the moving average

3 model provided a statistically better fit than the linear regression (Venables and Ripley 2002; Maindonald and Braun 2003). If the fits were not significantly different, then the program defaulted to a simple linear regression. If the data showed evidence of heteroscedasticity a log transformation or a weighted least squares analysis (Zar 1996) was performed. Table 2. Diagnostic tools for linear regression assumptions and potential correction techniques. Model Assumption

Evidence

Correction

Linearity – the data is best fit assuming a linear relationship

Plot residual vs. predicted values. A bowed pattern indicates nonlinearity.

A linear model may not be appropriate for this data, and a non-linear model (e.g. polynomial regression) may be more appropriate. Alternatively, try transforming the data (e.g. log transform).

Independence of Errors – values of ‘y’ are independent of each other

Plot an autocorrelation function of the residuals. If autocorrelations fall outside the 95% confidence limits, there maybe autocorrelation (often occurs in time series data). Test using a Ljung-Box test.

Apply a moving average regression model.

Homoscedasticity – equal variances around each ‘y’ value

Plot residuals vs. predicted values. If residuals show increasing spread over predicted values there is evidence of heteroscedasticity.

Apply a weighted least squares regression or a log transformation.

Normality – errors come from a normal distribution

Create a normal probability plot of residuals; distribution should be the same as for a random normal distribution.

Apply a general linear model; try transforming for non-linearity; remove unexplainable outliers.

Errors in Variables observations of x are obtained without error.

Fails for several provided datasets where predictions are based on forecasted values.

Apply a mean functional regression or bootstrap technique.

FORECASTING METHODS The following section provides a description of each forecast method, the nature of the data used for each method and the procedures used to quantify the uncertainty in the temperature or discharge prediction. The statistical techniques utilised to estimate forecast uncertainty for each method are described. Forecasted or measured environmental variables for 2005 were used as examples in all cases.

4 Temperature forecast models Historic temperature trends Water temperatures in the lower Fraser have been increasing since the first continuous records were established in 1953 (Foreman et al. 2001; Patterson et al. 2007b). Therefore, a linear regression fit between years and historic 19-day mean river temperature was evaluated to determine if the historic temporal trend could be used to make predictions of water temperature in the following year for each run timing group. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast was quantified using simple linear regression prediction intervals and residual standard errors (standard deviation of the error distribution). Temperature-discharge correlation Past observations have often noted negative correlations between river temperature and discharge (Quinn et al. 1997; Macdonald et al. 2000; Naughton 2005; Moore 2006). Predicting temperature, and its associated error, directly from forecasted discharge may eliminate the need to forecast temperature from other data sources, such as the historic trend or spring and summer air anomalies. As the current discharge forecast will be uncertain, this estimation procedure violates the linear regression assumption of negligible error in the predictor variable. Therefore, the estimation of temperature uncertainty required quantification of both model and predictor variable uncertainty. Uncertainty in forecasted discharge was modelled as a normal distribution with error equivalent to the standard deviation derived from the applied discharge forecasting method (see Discharge forecast models). Temperature was then predicted from each of 500 bootstrapped discharges using a simple linear regression model fit between 19-day mean discharge and 19-day mean temperature. Model uncertainty was incorporated into the final prediction by performing a nonparametric bootstrap of model residuals (Chernick 1999). A bootstrapped residual error term was added to each predicted temperature value. Eighty-percent confidence intervals were calculated using the 10th and 90th percentiles of the bootstrapped data. The generation of bootstrapped prediction intervals involves a more complex statistical analysis (Stine 1985), which was not completed here. Error structure was also presented as the standard deviation of the bootstrapped predictions. Summer air anomaly On June 1, Environment Canada (EC) posts predictions of summer air temperature, and reports this data in the form of an air temperature anomaly, varying from the mean, or “normal”, temperature averaged over 1951-1980 (http://weather.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html). Environment Canada generates twelve anomaly values using two different forecasting models. Each forecast is specified as “near normal”, “below normal”, or “above normal”, and the 12 model results are divided into each category. The category thresholds are spaced equidistant apart, at intervals equal to 0.43 times the inter-annual seasonal temperature standard deviation. However, these forecasts are highly uncertain, and the probability that the true forecast falls within a given range is un-calibrated (not compared to true historic trends) due to a lack of available data (http://weather.ec.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=pc_dyn_jja1_temp). Previous attempts to utilise the summer air temperature anomaly forecast include selecting a reasonable percentile from the historic anomalies given the probabilistic forecasts, or creating a categorical river temperature prediction matrix given the relationship between river temperature

5 and predicted flow and air temperature (“low”, ”normal”, “high”) (J. Morrison, VYNX design, Sidney, unpub. data). This report evaluates two new approaches for quantifying air temperature forecast uncertainty using bootstrap methods. The first method attempts to mimic the actual forecasting process as outlined on the EC website. The second method predicts forecast error using the historic summer air anomaly trend. To mimic the forecasting process described by Environment Canada, 500 counts of “near normal”, “below normal”, and “above normal” forecasts were generated using a multinomial distribution and 2005 forecast probabilities. The probability that the true anomaly will fall correctly into each category was determined from un-calibrated EC forecast probability maps, and then roughly adjusted using forecast reliability plots provided on the EC website. For example, if the probability that the true anomaly is “above normal” is 20-30% but the reliability data indicates that the observed frequencies of “above normal” anomalies are underestimated when the forecasted probability is 0.45) from approximately July 10 – July 25 (Figure 13A). The adjusted r2 value then declined over time (tracked until September 6), with the exception of another plateau in mid-August. The plateaus may occur because the year – temperature relationship improves from early July until late August, while the volume – temperature relationship weakens, occasionally balancing each other out. The declining adjusted r2 trend observed in the temperature – volume relationship ultimately dominates the overall trend observed for the multiple regression because volume explains a greater percentage of the variability in historic temperature. Despite the decline in explained variability, the regression slope remained significant throughout the date range examined (Figure 13B). Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) represent absolute and relative error measures, respectively (Figure 13C and D). The CV in mean temperature declined until early August, as river temperature (Figure 13F) continued to rise but SD remained roughly constant. Both the CV and predicted temperature plateaued during mid-August, roughly coinciding with the plateau in r2. During the same period, 2005 predictions were also relatively unbiased (percent bias ~ -1 to 1%; Figure 13E). The model plateau is of particular interest, as it suggests that the model is less sensitive to uncertainties in run-timing dates during mid-August than variability arising earlier or later in the season. The decline in model performance after August may signify the approximate time when the majority of the snowmelt has passed through Hells Gate, and river temperature becomes more dependent on other proximate factors. The rapid model deterioration illustrates the time span limitations of this pre-season forecasting approach. For example, the model is not significant for median dates historically associated with the Late run-timing group (historic median date = September 13). If the unusually late run-timings observed in 2005 become the norm (July 27th, September 3rd, and September 4th, for the Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer groups, respectively), most of the pre-season forecast methods will no longer be suitable for predicting river conditions for Early Summer and Summer groups. In contrast, if Late run fish continue their current trend of entering the Fraser River from mid-August to early September, (as opposed to their historic timing of late September to early October; Lapointe et al. 2003; Cooke et al. 2004), then it may become possible to generate pre-season forecasts for this run-timing group.

22 2

Seasonal Variation in P Values

P-value

0.35 0.15

0.25

R

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

Median Date

Median Date

Seasonal Variation in CV

Seasonal Variation in SD

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

1.06

D

0.94

SD ( oC )

C

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

Median Date

Median Date

Seasonal Variation in Percent Bias

Seasonal Variation in Predicted Mean

6-Sep 60

0 10-Jul 0

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30 Median Date

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

17.5

18.0 18

F

17.0 17

1

2

3

4

E

Predicted Mean ( oC )

5

18.5

10-Jul 0

Percent Bias

19-Jul 10

0.98 1 1.02

19-Jul 10

5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6 6.2 6.4

Coefficient of Variation

10-Jul 0

B

16.5

2

0.45

A

0.000 0 0.005 0.010 0.01 0.015 0.020 0.02

Seasonal Variation in R

10-Jul 0

19-Jul 10

29-Jul 20

8-Aug 30

17-Aug 40

27-Aug 50

6-Sep 60

Median Date

Figure 13. Time series analysis of the years - snowpack water volume multiple regression temperature prediction model illustrating the seasonal variability in 19-day mean temperature predictions and associated statistics. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions.

23 June ensemble flow Figure 14 illustrates a deteriorating trend in the performance of the ensemble flow model over time. Again, the decline in model power may reflect the decreasing influence of snowpack water volume (used to create the ensemble) on river discharge as the season progresses (r2 and pvalues were not generated because the ensemble model does not use linear regression). A comparison between Tables 6 and 8 illustrates the larger CVs associated with discharge forecasts as opposed to temperature forecasts. There are also no plateau regions, as observed with the multiple regression model. These results highlight the limitations in using long range ensemble flow discharge predictions later in the summer season.

24 Seasonal Variation in CV

20 18 14

16

Coefficient of Variation

700 690 680 660

670

SD ( cms )

710

22

720

Seasonal Variation in SD

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

50

6-Sep 60

Median Date

Seasonal Variation in Percent Bias

Seasonal Variation in Predicted Mean

4500 4000 3500

10 -10

0

Percent Bias

20

Predicted Mean ( cms )

30

Median Date

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

Median Date

50

6-Sep 60

10-Jul 0

10

29-Jul 20

30

17-Aug 40

50

6-Sep 60

Median Date

Figure 14. Time series analysis of the June 2005 ensemble flow model illustrating the variability in 19-day mean discharge predictions and associated statistics over time. Seasonal variation in percent bias refers to 2005 predictions.

25 Mean days The examples provided thus far analysed symmetric 19-day mean temperature and discharge averages centred on the Hells Gate 50% date. The 19-day period was selected for the sockeye salmon examples, based on the assumption that this range captures most of the conditions experienced by each run-timing group as they pass Hells Gate. For example, previous DBE models for Fraser River sockeye salmon management have used both 19-day and 31-day means (D. Patterson, DFO, pers. comm. 2006; I. Guthrie, PSC, pers. comm. 2006). The sensitivity of predictions to the number of days used to generate mean temperature and discharge is illustrated in Tables 4 and 5. Increasing the number of days used to calculate the mean does lead to small improvements in the CV of predicted temperature and the adjusted r2 calculated from the multiple regression model (Table 4). The improvements are most noticeable moving from a 3-day to 11-day mean. Similar trends were observed for the ensemble flow discharge predictions (Table 5). Increasing the number of days likely improves model performance by smoothing out sources of higher frequency variation in the data that do not contribute to the covariation between the environmental time series (Pyper and Peterman 1998). Table 4. Sensitivity of mean temperature prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature; r2 = coefficient of determination for best fit linear regression) from the years – snowpack water volume multiple regression model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example. 3-day

11-day

19-day

31-day

Predicted o mean ( C)

16.61

16.59

16.58

16.77

CV (%)

7.28

6.57

6.39

6.26

r2

0.39

0.47

0.49

0.52

Table 5. Sensitivity of mean discharge prediction statistics (CV = coefficient of variation in predicted temperature) from the June 2005 ensemble flow model to the number of days used to calculate the mean. The historic Early Stuart peak run-timing date (July 14) is used as an example. 3-day

11-day

19-day

31-day

Predicted mean (cms)

4719

4698

4685

4668

CV (%)

15.15

13.58

12.27

11.31

26 MODEL COMPARISON Temperature forecasts A retrospective analysis of 2005 pre-season temperature forecasts is presented in Table 6. Both summer air anomaly forecasting methods performed similarly, so only the historic trend technique (bootstrap method II) is provided for illustrative purposes. Performance metrics include the mean predicted temperature, the r2 value corresponding to the best-fit linear regression, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the predicted value. The percent bias presented is only associated with the 2005 prediction and may not be representative of bias trends in alternate years. Table 6. Summary of pre-season temperature forecasting methods and the precision and bias of 2005 forecasts. Predicted means are presented in bold. r2 = coefficient of determination corresponding to best fit linear regression (adjusted r2 for the multiple regression models); CV = coefficient of variation (CV = (forecast standard deviation/forecast mean)*100); B = percent bias for 2005 (B = ((forecast mean – measured value)/measured value)*100). Method Historic temperature trend

Snowpack water volume (May)

Snowpack water volume (June)

Availability

Early Stuart

18.26 C 2 r = 11% CV = 6.00% B = 0.33%

o

17.97 C 2 r = 26% CV = 5.73% B = -1.26%

o

18.13 C 2 r = 31% CV = 5.68% B = -0.38%

o

18.41 C 2 r = 29% CV = 5.54% B = 1.15%

o

18.41 C 2 r = 38% CV = 6.19% B = 1.15%

o

18.18 C 2 r = 56% CV = 5.33% B = -0.11%

o

17.85 C 2 r = 29% CV = 6.33% B = -1.92%

o

18.06 C 2 r = 51% CV = 6.20% B = -0.77%

o

Anytime

16.38 C 2 r = 9.4% CV = 7.45% B = 1.74%

May

16.26 C 2 r = 46% CV = 6.89% B = 0.99%

June

Early Summer

o

16.44 C 2 r = 52% CV = 6.67% B = 2.11%

Summer

o

18.22 C 2 r = 17% CV = 5.71% B = -0.44%

o

o

17.66 C 2 r = 13% CV = 6.17% B = -3.50%

o

17.80 C 2 r = 17% CV = 5.90% B = 5.31%

o

18.31 C 2 r = 21% CV = 5.68% B = 0.05%

o

18.13 C 2 r = 43% CV = 6.01% B = -0.09%

o

17.94 C 2 r = 45% CV = 6.02% B = -1.97%

o

17.51 C 2 r = 21% CV = 6.62% B = -4.32%

o

17.86 C 2 r = 45% CV = 5.71% B = -2.40%

o

o

o

o

April

16.58 C 2 r = 47% CV = 6.39% B = 2.98%

June

16.71 C 2 r = 28% CV = 7.36% B = 3.79%

June

16.43 C 2 r = 65% CV = 6.57% B = 2.05%

Temperaturedischarge correlation (June ensemble)

June

16.50 C 2 r = 62% CV = 6.24% B = 2.48%

Summer air anomaly (historic trend bootstrap)

Anytime

16.23 C 2 r = 45% CV = 7.27% B = 0.80%

June

16.96 C 2 r = 29% CV = 5.90% B = 5.34%

18.78 C 2 r = 34% CV = 5.06% B = 3.19%

18.43 C 2 r = 26% CV = 5.32% B = 0.71%

16.1 oC

18.2 oC

18.3 oC

Years – snowpack water volume multiple regression analysis Historic trend – ensemble multiple regression analysis (June data) Summer air anomaly – snowpack water volume multiple regression analysis

Spring air anomaly

2005 Measured

o

o

o

o

o

27 The temperature forecasting methods performed comparably well. Percent bias for 2005 forecasts was typically