Modeling Freight Mode Choice in Greece - CyberLeninka

4 downloads 0 Views 300KB Size Report
In all the above analyses the variables used are ratings and not .... Questions. A. General information. 1. Type of the firms (forwarder, shipper, .... Type of firm answering: owners of goods – answers according to the ..... The model's coefficients are presented in Table 9 below, and the equation has the following form: 5. 4. 3. 2.

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK$UHQD±(XURSH

0RGHOLQJ)UHLJKW0RGH&KRLFHLQ*UHHFH 730RVFKRYRXD *$*LDQQRSRXORV 1DWLRQDO7HFKQLFDO8QLYHUVLW\RI$WKHQV$WKHQV*UHHFH +HOOHQLF,QVWLWXWHRI7UDQVSRUW7KHVVDORQLNL*UHHFH  

$EVWUDFW 7KHPDLQSXUSRVHRIWKLVSDSHULVWRSUHVHQWWKHUHVXOWVRIDFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHVHDUFKVWXG\WKDWWRRNSODFHLQ*UHHFHLQ RUGHU WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH SURFHVVDQG WKH FULWHULD IRU IUHLJKW PRGDO FKRLFH EHKDYLRU ,W LQYROYHG DODUJH VFDOH VXUYH\ DPRQJYDULRXV³DFWRUV´LQWKHIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWVFHQHLQ*UHHFHDQGDIXOOVFDOHDQDO\VLVRIWKHUHVXOWVDQGRXWFRPHV 7KH REMHFWLYH ZDV WR UHYHDO WKH PHFKDQLVPV DQG WKH IDFWRUV WKDW LQIOXHQFH IUHLJKW WUDQVSRUW PRGH FKRLFH DQG WR SURGXFH PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOV UHODWLQJ WKH XVHUV¶ SHUFHSWLRQRI WKH V\VWHP ZLWK WKH YDULRXV FULWHULD DQG SDUDPHWHUV WKDWWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRIWKHVXUYH\UHVXOWVUHYHDOHGDVUHOHYDQW 7KHSUHVHQWSDSHUSUHVHQWVWKHPRGHOLQJSDUWRIWKHDERYHUHVHDUFKZRUN)LUVWO\DQDQDO\VLVRIUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ WKHYDULRXVDWWULEXWHVZLWKWKHPRUH³FRQYHQWLRQDO´OLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVLVGHVFULEHG7KLVDQDO\VLVLVSUHVHQWHG LQDVXPPDU\IRUPVWDUWLQJZLWKWKHWHVWVRIOLQHDULW\SHUIRUPHGRQWKHYDULRXVSDUDPHWHUVDQGWKHQSURFHHGVZLWK WKHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHDFWXDO OLQHDU PRGHOVGHYHORSHG ,QWKHVHFRQGSDUWRIWKHSDSHUDPRUHFRPSUHKHQVLYHGLVDJJUHJDWHORJLWDQDO\VLVLVSUHVHQWHG7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLV DQDO\VLV LV WR UHSOLFDWH PRUH FORVHO\ WKH REVHUYHG ³LQGLYLGXDO XVHU´ EHKDYLRU E\ XVH RI DSSURSULDWH H[SOLFDWRU\ YDULDEOHVIURPGDWDFROOHFWHGLQWKHVXUYH\7KHUHVXOWLQJGLVDJJUHJDWHPRGHOVDUHWHVWHGIRUUHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVVDQG DFFXUDF\ DQG WKH ILQDO RXWFRPHV DUH SUHVHQWHG ,Q DOO WKH DERYH DQDO\VHV WKH YDULDEOHV XVHG DUH UDWLQJV DQG QRW DEVROXWHQXPEHUV 7KHVWXG\LVTXLWHXQLTXHIRU*UHHFHDQGSUHVHQWVRYHUDOOUHVXOWVDQGILQGLQJVWKDWFDQEHXWLOL]HGLQPDQ\ZD\VIURP VWLPXODWLQJIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKWRVXSSRUWLQJWKHDGRSWLRQRIHIIHFWLYHSROLF\



© 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the ‹3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI75$ Transport Research Arena 2012



.H\ZRUGV)UHLJKWPRGDOVSOLWFULWHULDIRUPRGDOFKRLFHIUHLJKWORJLWDQDO\VLVIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW



&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HO (PDLODGGUHVVWPRVFK#FHEWUDOQWXDJU

1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1038

598

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

,QWURGXFWLRQ 6FRSHDQG2EMHFWLYHVRIWKH3DSHU 0RGHFKRLFHEHKDYLRXUDQGLWVLQIOXHQFLQJIDFWRUVKDYHEHHQWKHVXEMHFWRILQWHQVHUHVHDUFKZRUNVLQFH WKHHDUO\VEXWSULPDULO\IRUSDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUWLHUHJDUGLQJWKHFKRLFHVSHUVRQVPDNHLQWKHLUGD\WR GD\WULSPDNLQJ)UHLJKWPRGDOFKRLFHKDVEHLQJUHVHDUFKHGUHODWLYHO\UHFHQWO\>%HQ$NLYDHWDO +HQVKHUDQG%XWWRQ7KH&HQWHUIRUXUEDQWUDQVSRUWDWLRQUHVHDUFKDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI6RXWK)ORULGD  63,13URMHFW  /2*,43URMHFW  @HVSHFLDOO\VLQFHIUHLJKWPRGDOVSOLWEHFDPHDQ LPSRUWDQW WUDQVSRUW SROLF\HOHPHQWLQWKHODWHHLJKWLHVDQGHDUO\V>&RPPLVVLRQRIWKH(XURSHDQ &RPPXQLWLHV  @LQRUGHUWRHIIHFWDPRUH³EDODQFHG´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¶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³WUDGLWLRQDO´PRGHOOLQJUHVHDUFKVWXGLHVWKDWKDYHDSSOLHGEDVLFDOO\UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOOLQJDUH&KLDQJHWDO0F)DGGHQHWDO7KHPRVWFRPPRQSDUDPHWHUWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW LVWKHWRWDOORJLVWLFVFRVWZKLFKLQFOXGHVWUDQVSRUWFRVWDQGVWRUDJHRUGHUDQGKDQGOLQJFRVWDVZHOODV VHYHUDORWKHUFRVWV 2WKHUVWXGLHV>-LDQJHWDO:LOVRQHWDO1DUDVLPKDDQG$VKWDNDOD:LQVWRQ@JLYH PRUHHPSKDVLVRQGHYHORSLQJORJLWRUSURELWPRGHOVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQPRGHFKRLFH DQGWKHFULWHULDLQIOXHQFLQJWKLVFKRLFH,QWKLVZD\WKHPRGHOVIRUPXODWHGUHSUHVHQWWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKH DFWRUVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHGHFLVLRQVPDGHRQIUHLJKWPRGHFKRLFH 7KLVSDSHUSUHVHQWVWKHPRGHOOLQJSDUWRIWKHZRUNZKLFKLQYROYHGWKHXVHRIPDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOVWR ILWWKHREVHUYHGEHKDYLRXUDQGGDWD7KHZRUNFRQWDLQV x $³FRQYHQWLRQDO´OLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVSHUIRUPHGLQRUGHUWRIRUPOLQHDUPRGHOV7KLVSDUW FRQWDLQVWHVWVRIOLQHDULW\SHUIRUPHGRQWKHYDULRXVSDUDPHWHUVLQRUGHUWRGHWHUPLQHWKRVHWKDWZRXOG

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

EHVWILWWKHREVHUYHGGDWDDQGWKHQSUHVHQWVWKHPRGHOVGHYHORSHGIROORZHGE\DGLVFXVVLRQRQKRZ IDUWKH\UHSUHVHQWWKHREVHUYHGVLWXDWLRQDQGZKDWZHFDQGUDZIURPWKHP x $GLVDJJUHJDWHORJLWW\SHRIPRGHOLQJDQDO\VLVSHUIRUPHGLQRUGHUWRUHSOLFDWHPRUHFORVHO\WKH REVHUYHG³LQGLYLGXDOXVHU´IUHLJKWPRGDOFKRLFHEHKDYLRUDVZHOODVWRLQFOXGHPRUHH[SOLFDWRU\ YDULDEOHVLQWKHPRGHOV+LJKUHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVVDQGDFFXUDF\RIWKHGDWDLVGLVFXVVHGDQGWHVWHG 7KHRYHUDOOFRQFOXVLRQVRIWKHZRUNDUHSUHVHQWHGIRUERWKWKHPRGHOLQJH[HUFLVHDQGWKHRYHUDOO UHVXOWVIURPPHDVXULQJIUHLJKWPRGHFKRLFHEHKDYLRU 6XPPDU\RIWKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQVXUYH\UHVXOWVDQGDQDO\VLV 7KHPDLQGDWDFROOHFWLRQVXUYH\FRQVLVWHGRIDFRPSUHKHQVLYHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVXUYH\FRPSOHWHGE\ DSSUR[LPDWHO\FRPSDQLHV ³RZQHUV´RIWKHIUHLJKWORJLVWLFVVHUYLFHSURYLGHUVDQG WUDQVSRUWRSHUDWRUV 7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUHFRQVLVWHGRITXHVWLRQVWKDWFDQEHFDWHJRUL]HGLQW\SHVDVFDQEH UHDGLQ7DEOH x *HQHUDOLQIRUPDWLRQ x &KRLFHRIWUDQVSRUWPRGHTXHVWLRQV x 5DQNLQJRIWUDQVSRUWPRGHVDQGPRGHFKRLFHFULWHULDPRGHV SRLQWVFDOH  7DEOH&DWHJRULHVDQGW\SHVRITXHVWLRQVDVNHGLQWKHVXUYH\ &DWHJRU\RITXHVWLRQ

4XHVWLRQV

 7\SHRIWKHILUPV IRUZDUGHUVKLSSHU ORJLVWLFFRPSDQ\3/HWF   7\SHRIWUDQVSRUWPRGHVXVHG RU RZQPHDQV  $ *HQHUDOLQIRUPDWLRQ  $UHDRIDFWLYLW\ GRPHVWLF LQWHUQDWLRQDOLPSRUWVH[SRUWV   7\SHRIDFWLYLW\ VWRUDJHJURXSLQJ HWF  % &KRLFHRIWUDQVSRUW PRGHTXHVWLRQV

7UDQVSRUWPRGHXVHG WKHIROORZLQJLQIRUPDWLRQLVJLYHQ   5DWHWUDQVSRUWPRGHXVHGDFFRUGLQJ WR

& 5DQNLQJRI  5DWHFULWHULDDFFRUGLQJWR WUDQVSRUWPRGHVDQG PRGHFKRLFHFULWHULD PRGHV SRLQW VFDOH   5DWHWKHVDPHSHUWUDQVSRUWPRGH XVHG WUXFNWUDLQVKLSDLUSODQH  DFFRUGLQJWR

    L GLVWDQFH OHVVWKDQNPWRNP WRPRUHWKDQNP  LL W\SHRIVKLSPHQW LLL W\SHRIORDGLQJXQLWV LY WUDYHOWLPH Y FRVWRIWUDQVSRUW JHQHUDO OHYHO RI VHUYLFH DVSHUFHLYHGE\ WKHUHVSRQGHQWIURPKLVKHUH[SHULHQFHIURP WKHWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPRI*UHHFH L JHQHUDOOHYHO LPSRUWDQFHRIWKHFULWHULD LL JHQHUDOOHYHO RI VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHGIURP WKHIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPLQ*UHHFH WRGD\ L OHYHORILPSRUWDQFH LL OHYHORIVDWLVIDFWLRQRIIHUHGE\WKHFXUUHQW WUDQVSRUWV\VWHPLQ*UHHFH

 7KHPDLQEXONRIWKHGDWDIURPWKHVXUYH\FDPHIURPVHFWLRQ&RI7DEOHDERYH LQUHODWLRQWRWKH DQVZHUVLQVHFWLRQ% 7KHDQVZHUVFRQVLVWHGRIUDWLQJVJLYHQE\WKHUHVSRQGHQWVWRDQXPEHURIFULWHULD RIPRGHFKRLFH D³UDWLQJ´ZDVDQXPEHUEHWZHHQDQGJLYHQE\WKHUHVSRQGHQWWRH[SUHVVKLVKHU ZHLJKWJLYHQWRWKHVSHFLILFLQIOXHQFLQJIDFWRURUFULWHULRQWKDWKHVKHZDVSUHVHQWHGZLWKDVDQVZHUV $OO DQVZHUVZHUHJLYHQXQGHUWZRYLHZSRLQWVRUDVVXPSWLRQV

599

600

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

x )URPWKHSRLQWRIYLHZRIWKH³LPSRUWDQFH´WKDWKHVKHDWWDFKHVWRWKHVSHFLILFFULWHULRQDQG x )URPWKHSRLQWRIYLHZRIWKH³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´IURPXVLQJWKHH[LVWLQJWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPLQ *UHHFH $VLWZDVWREHH[SHFWHGWKHUDWLQJVLQWKHWZRDERYHFDWHJRULHVZHUHTXLWHGLIIHUHQWLDWHG 7KHDQDO\VLVRIWKHVXUYH\UHVXOWVLQFOXGHGDQXPEHURIVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFHWHVWVLQRUGHUWRGHULYH WKHPRVWLQIOXHQWLDOFULWHULDRIPRGDOFKRLFH LQWHUPVRIWKHVXUYH\UHVSRQGHQWV¶UDWLQJV 7KH VLJQLILFDQFHWHVWVSHUIRUPHGZHUHPDLQO\RIWKHIROORZLQJW\SHV x ,QGHSHQGHQWVDPSOHWWHVW DQGWKH³/HYHQH¶VWHVWIRUHTXDOLW\RIYDULDQFH´ 6WDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFHRI WKHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHVRIWKHUDWLQJVJLYHQWRWKHGLIIHUHQWPRGHV x $129$DQDO\VLV DSRVWHULRUL3RVW+RF7DPKDQHDQDO\VLV 7HVWLQJWKH++\SRWKHVLVWRFKHFNLI WKHUHZHUHVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVE\WKHGLIIHUHQWUDWHVJLYHQWRWKHGLIIHUHQWFULWHULDZLWKLQWKHVDPH PRGH,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHVHWHVWVZHUHDLPHGDWPHDVXULQJWKH³ZHLJKW´RIHDFKUDWLQJJLYHQWRRQH FULWHULRQZLWKUHVSHFWWRDQRWKHU x $VVHVVLQJWKHVLJQLILFDQFHRIUDWLQJVJLYHQWRHDFKPRGHE\W\SHRIUHVSRQGHQWILUPEDVHGRQWKH JHQHUDOOHYHORIVHUYLFHRIIHUHGE\WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJPRGH DIXUWKHUGLVWLQFWLRQPDGHZDVWR WUDQVSRUWVZLWKLQ*UHHFHDQGWUDQVSRUWVWRDQGIURP*UHHFHIURPDEURDG x $VVHVVLQJWKHVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHDYHUDJHVRIWKHUDWLQJVJLYHQWRWKHYDULRXVPRGHVRIWUDQVSRUW DFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUSHUFHLYHG³LPSRUWDQFH´DQGILQDOO\ x $VVHVVLQJWKHVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHDYHUDJHVRIWKHUDWLQJVJLYHQWRWKHYDULRXVPRGHVRIWUDQVSRUW DFFRUGLQJWRWKHSHUFHLYHG³VDWLVIDFWLRQ´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³LPSRUWDQFH´JLYHQE\WKHLQWHUYLHZHHWRWKHVH FULWHULDZKLOH7DEOHJLYHVWKHVDPHUHVXOWVIRUWKHDQVZHUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´ )RUWKHVHFRPSDULVRQVWKH3HDUVRQ 5 FRUUHODWLRQZDVXVHG2QO\WKHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJWZRWDEOHV

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

7DEOH+LJKHVWYDOXHVRIFRHIILFLHQWVIURP3HDUVRQ&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHRIDOOUDWLQJVDQGHDFKLQGLYLGXDOFULWHULRQRI PRGHFKRLFHIRUWKHFDVHRIUDWLQJDFFRUGLQJWRWKH³LPSRUWDQFH´DWWDFKHGWRHDFKFULWHULRQ

  

7\SHRIILUPV

2ZQHUV´RIWKHJRRGV

        

6DWLVIDFWLRQ



)RUZDUGHUVORJLVWLF VHUYLFHSURYLGHUV



&ULWHULDIRUPRGHFKRLFH 3UREDELOLW\IRUORDG/RVVDQG GDPDJH &DSDELOLW\RIKDQGOLQJODUJHVL]H ORDGV )UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH 6L]HRIORDG 3DFNDJHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV 7UDQVSRUWGLVWDQFH $YDLODELOLW\RI XQ ORDGLQJ HTXLSPHQW 6KLSPHQWYDOXH &DSDELOLW\RIKDQGOLQJODUJHVL]H ORDGV &XVWRPHUVHUYLFHTXDOLW\ &DSDELOLW\IRUWUDFNLQJDQGWUDFLQJ RIWKHVKLSPHQW )UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH (DVHRIDFFHVVWRWKHPRGH

53HDUVRQ FRUUHODWLRQ             

7DEOH+LJKHVWYDOXHVRIFRHIILFLHQWVIURP3HDUVRQ&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHRIDOOUDWLQJVDQGHDFKLQGLYLGXDOFULWHULRQRI PRGHFKRLFHIRUWKHFDVHRIUDWLQJDFFRUGLQJWRWKH³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´E\WKHFXUUHQWV\VWHPIRUHDFKFULWHULRQ

7\SHRIILUPV ,PSRUWDQFH

       

2ZQHUV´RIWKHJRRGV

)RUZDUGHUVORJLVWLF VHUYLFHSURYLGHUV

&ULWHULDIRUPRGHFKRLFH &DSDELOLW\RIKDQGOLQJODUJHVL]HORDGV $YDLODELOLW\RIPRGH 5HOLDELOLW\ WLPHRIGHOLYHU\ DQGTXDOLW\RI VHUYLFH 3DFNDJHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV 7UDQVSRUWGLVWDQFH 3DFNDJHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV 6L]HRIORDG )UHTXHQF\RIVFKHGXOHV 6KLSPHQWYDOXH

53HDUVRQ FRUUHODWLRQ         

7KH/LQHDU5HJUHVVLRQ0RGHOV 5HJUHVVLRQPRGHOVXVLQJWKHUDWLQJVRI³,PSRUWDQFH´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

601

602

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

W! DQGFROXPQVLJWKHYDOXHRIWKHVWDWLVWLFIRUWKHVLJQLILFDQFHOHYHOZKLFKDSSURYHV RUGLVDSSURYHV  WKHH[LVWHQFHRIWKHYDULDEOHLQWKHPRGHO VLJ  7DEOH/LQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOEHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHRYHUDOOUDWLQJ IRUDOOWKHFULWHULD IRUFKRRVLQJWUXFNDVGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH 7\SHRIILUPDQVZHULQJRZQHUVRIJRRGV±DQVZHUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH³LPSRUWDQFH´DWWDFKHGE\WKHLQWHUYLHZHHWRHDFKFULWHULRQ

,QGHSHQGHQW9DULDEOHV

,PSRUWDQFH

&RQVWDQW ;5HOLDELOLW\ WLPHRI GHOLYHU\ DQGTXDOLW\ RIVHUYLFH ;(DVHRIDFFHVVWRWKH PRGH ;7UDQVSRUWFRVW LQFOXGLQJFRVWRI RUGHUHWF  ;3UREDELOLW\IRUORDG /RVVDQG'DPDJH ;6L]HRIORDG ;6KLSPHQWOLIH ;6KLSPHQWYDOXH ;)UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH ;&DSDELOLW\RIKDQGOLQJ ODUJHVL]HORDGV ;&DSDELOLW\IRUWUDFNLQJ DQGWUDFLQJRIWKH VKLSPHQW ;$YDLODELOLW\RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQJ HTXLSPHQW

8QVWDQGDUGL]H G&RHIILFLHQWV 6WDQ % GHUURU      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6WDQGDUGLVH GFRHIILFLHQWV %HWD            

W

6LJ





 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

&ROOLQHDULW\ 6WDWLVWLFV 7ROHUDQF 9,) H            

                      

 )URP WKH DERYH WDEOH LW LV FRQFOXGHG WKDW IRU WKH FDVH RI UDWLQJ WKH ³LPSRUWDQFH´ DWWDFKHG E\ WKH UHVSRQGHQWV WR HDFK FULWHULRQ WKH UDWLQJ RI WKH WUXFN DV FRPSDUHG WR UDLO  LV PRVWO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH ³DYDLODELOLW\RIORDGLQJXQORDGLQJHTXLSPHQW´³VKLSPHQWOLIH´³SUREDELOLW\IRUORDG/RVVDQG'DPDJH´ ³UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH VHUYLFH´ LQ WHUPV RI WUDYHO WLPHV VLPSOLFLW\ RI SURFHGXUHV HWF  RI WKH UDLOZD\ XQGHUWDNLQJV 7KHVDPHWHVWVZHUHDOVRPDGHLQRUGHUWRGHILQHWKHOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOIRUWKHRWKHUW\SHRIILUPV LHWKHIRUZDUGHUV±ORJLVWLFVHUYLFHSURYLGHUV,Q7DEOHFROXPQ%WKHPRGHOFRHIILFLHQWVDUHVKRZQ FROXPQ%       

603

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

7DEOH/LQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOEHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHRYHUDOOUDWLQJ IRUDOOWKHFULWHULD IRUFKRRVLQJWUXFNDVGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH 7\SHRIILUPDQVZHULQJIRUZDUGHUV±ORJLVWLFVHUYLFHSURYLGHUV±DQVZHUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH³LPSRUWDQFH´DWWDFKHGE\WKHLQWHUYLHZHH WRHDFKFULWHULRQ

,PSRUWDQFH

,QGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV

&RQVWDQW ȋ5HOLDELOLW\ WLPHRI GHOLYHU\ DQGTXDOLW\RI VHUYLFH ȋ(DVHRIDFFHVVWRWKH PRGH ȋ6L]HRIORDG ȋ6KLSPHQWYDOXH ȋ)UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH

8QVWDQGDUGL]H G&RHIILFLHQWV 6WDQ % GHUURU      

 

       

       

6WDQGDUGLVH GFRHIILFLHQWV

W

%HWD 





   

&ROOLQHDULW\ 6WDWLVWLFV 7ROHUDQ 9, FH )



 



 

 



       

       





6L J

   

          

 7KH DERYH WDEOH LQGLFDWHV WKDW LQ WKH FDVH RI WKH IRUZDUGLQJ RU ORJLVWLF ILUPV WKH ³UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH VHUYLFH´ LQ WHUPV RI WUDYHO WLPHV VLPSOLFLW\ RI SURFHGXUHV HWF  ³VL]H RI ORDG´ ³YDOXH RI ORDG´ ³IUHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH´DUHWKHPRVWLQIOXHQFLQJIDFWRUV 5HJUHVVLRQPRGHOVXVLQJWKHUDWLQJVRI³VDWLVIDFWLRQ´UHFHLYHG 8VLQJWKHVDPHPHWKRGRORJ\DQGW\SHRI UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLVEXWIRUWKHDQVZHUVFRQFHUQLQJWKHOHYHO RIVDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG IURPWKH*UHHNWUDQVSRUWV\VWHP WKHIROORZLQJ7DEOHLQGLFDWHVWKHFRHIILFLHQWV RIWKHUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOVREWDLQHG 7DEOH/LQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOEHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHRYHUDOOUDWLQJ IRUDOOWKHFULWHULD IRUFKRRVLQJWUXFNDVGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH 7\SHRIILUPDQVZHULQJRZQHUVRIJRRGV±DQVZHUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´DWWDFKHGE\WKHLQWHUYLHZHHWRHDFK FULWHULRQ

,QGHSHQGHQW9DULDEOHV

6DWLVIDFWLRQ

&RQVWDQW ȋ5HOLDELOLW\ WLPHRI GHOLYHU\ DQGTXDOLW\RI VHUYLFH ȋ(DVHRIDFFHVVWRWKH PRGH ȋ3UREDELOLW\IRUORDG/RVV DQG'DPDJH ȋ6L]HRIORDG ȋ6KLSPHQWOLIH ȋ6KLSPHQWYDOXH ȋ)UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH

8QVWDQGDUGL]H G&RHIILFLHQWV 6WDQ % GHUURU      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6WDQGDUGLV HGFRHIILFLHQWV %HWD

W

6LJ 







 





 



     

           

             

&ROOLQHDULW\ 6WDWLVWLFV 7ROHUDQ 9, FH )        

              

604

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

ȋ&DSDELOLW\RIKDQGOLQJ ODUJHVL]HORDGV ȋ$YDLODELOLW\RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQJ HTXLSPHQW

 

 

 

 



 







 





 

   

 )RU WKH FDVH RI WKH RZQHU RI JRRGV LQ WKH FDVH RI ³VDWLVIDFWLRQ UHFHLYHG´ E\ WKH H[LVWLQJ *UHHN  WUDQVSRUWV\VWHPWKHUDWLQJRIWKHWUXFN DVFRPSDUHGWRUDLO LVPRVWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKH³DYDLODELOLW\RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQJ HTXLSPHQW´ ³UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH VHUYLFH´ LQ WHUPV RI WUDYHO WLPHV VLPSOLFLW\ RI SURFHGXUHVHWF 

6DWLVIDFWLRQ

7DEOH/LQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOEHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHRYHUDOOUDWLQJ IRUDOOWKHFULWHULD IRUFKRRVLQJWUXFNDVGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH 7\SHRIILUPDQVZHULQJIRUZDUGHUV±ORJLVWLFVHUYLFHSURYLGHUV±DQVZHUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´DWWDFKHGE\WKH LQWHUYLHZHHWRHDFKFULWHULRQ 8QVWDQGDUGL]HG &RHIILFLHQWV ,QGHSHQGHQW9DULDEOHV 6WDQG % HUURU  &RQVWDQW    ȋ6L]HRIORDG     ȋ6KLSPHQWYDOXH  ȋ$YDLODELOLW\RI   ORDGLQJXQORDGLQJ  HTXLSPHQW

6WDQGDUGLVH GFRHIILFLHQWV

W

%HWD   





     



 



6LJ 

&ROOLQHDULW\ 6WDWLVWLFV 7ROHUDQ 9, FH ) 

      

  

      

 ,Q WKH FDVH RI WKH IRUZDUGLQJ RU ORJLVWLF ILUPV ³VL]H RI ORDG´ ³VKLSPHQW YDOXH´ ³DYDLODELOLW\ RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQJHTXLSPHQW´DUHWKHIDFWRUVWKDWPRVWLQIOXHQFHWKHUDWLQJRIWKHWUXFN DVFRPSDUHGWR UDLO  /RJLWPRGHOIRUPXODWLRQ 7KH GLVDJJUHJDWH PRGHO DQDO\VLV ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH ORJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQ WKDW UHVXOWV RQ D ELQDU\ RU PXOWLQRPLDO ORJLW PRGHO IRUPXODWLRQ ,Q WKLV FDVH LW ZDV SRVVLEOH WR KDYH D IRUPXODWLRQ LQ ZKLFK WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH ZDV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI FKRRVLQJ WUDLQ RYHU WUXFN /RJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQ ZDV LPSOHPHQWHGIRUWZRFDVHV x 5DWLQJVRILPSRUWDQFH x 5DWLQJVRIVDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG 0HWKRGRORJ\)ROORZHG $FRPPRQH[SUHVVLRQRIWKHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOLVWKHIROORZLQJ OQ RGGV  Įȕȋȕȋȕțȋț  ZKHUH ĮWKHFRQVWDQWRIWKHPRGHOHTXDWLRQ ȤțWKHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV ȕțWKHFRHIILFLHQWVRIWKHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV 











>@

605

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

7KHOHIWSDUWRIWKHHTXDWLRQFRQWDLQVWKHYDOXHVRIWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHLQDIRUPRIDORJDULWKPRI WKHRGGV7KHTXDQWLW\OQ RGGV LVFDOOHGDORJLW7KHRGGVDUHUHODWHGWRWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDFHUWDLQFKRLFH E\WKHHTXDWLRQ 3U RE ZKLFKLQRXUFDVHLWZDV3URE WUDLQWUXFN RGGV   3U RE

 7KHWHUP3UREH[SUHVVHVWKHSUREDELOLW\WRFKRRVHWUDLQRYHUWUXFN7KHFRHIILFLHQWVRIWKHLQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO DUH HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ WKH PD[LPXP OLNHOLKRRG WHFKQLTXH 7KH GHULYHGFRHIILFLHQWVDUHWKRVHWKDWPDNHRXUYDOXHVPRVWOLNHO\WRRFFXU VWDWLVWLFDOO\ IRUWKHJLYHQVHWRI LQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV7KHVWHSVWRIRUPXODWHWKHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOZHUH x 'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHVL]HRIWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHDQGWKHVHWRIWKHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVWKDWZLOO WDNHSDUWLQWKHPRGHO x ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI%LQDU\/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVLQRUGHUWRILQGWKHFULWHULDWKDWDIIHFW LHWKDW DUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\LPSRUWDQW WKHFKRLFHRIWUDLQRYHUWUXFN x ,QYHVWLJDWLRQRIWKHGDWDIRUWKHH[LVWHQFHRIDQ\XQXVXDORUPLVVLQJYDOXHVHWF x ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWWHVWVWRFKHFNWKHVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHLQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV x )RUPXODWLRQRIWKHHTXDWLRQRIWKHORJLWPRGHO x (VWLPDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWRIHDFKLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHWRWKHPRGHO 7KH0RGHOV'HYHORSHG /RJLWPRGHOVXVLQJWKHUDWLQJVRI³,PSRUWDQFH´ 7KH VDPSOH VL]H ZDV  FDVHV ZKLOH WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ZHUH WKH UDWLQJV RI WKH FULWHULD WKDW DIIHFWWKHFKRLFHRIWUDLQRYHUWUXFNEDVHGRQWKHOHYHORILPSRUWDQFH 4XHVWLRQ&L  ,Q WKH FDVH WKDW WKH FKRLFH LV WUDLQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ Ȋ 3URE WUDLQWUXFN LV HTXDO WR  ZKLOH RQ WKH FRQWUDU\FDVHLWLV 7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVLPSOHPHQWHGDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH0RUHVSHFLILFDOO\ FROXPQ%VKRZVWKHYDOXHVRIWKHFRHIILFLHQWVIRUWKHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV  7DEOH)LQDO/RJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQFRHIILFLHQWV ZLWKVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFH XVLQJDV³GHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH´WKHSUREDELOLW\WRFKRRVH WUDLQRYHUWUXFNLQWKHFDVHRI³LPSRUWDQFH´

,QGHSHQGHQW9DULDEOHV

%

&RQVWDQW



;7UDYHOWLPH ;3UREDELOLW\IRUORDG/RVV DQG'DPDJH

 

6WDQGD UGHUURU   

:DOG

G

6LJ

I













([S % 

 

 

 

 

 

 

&RQILGHQFH LQWHUYDO(;3 %  /RZH 8SSHU UERXQG ERXQG 











 7KHORJLWPRGHOLVIRUPXODWHGLQLWVRULJLQDOIRUPIURPWKHVRFDOOHG©RGGVIXQFWLRQªLH OQ RGGV  ±;; 











>@

606

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

7KHIROORZLQJWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVDSSO\ HOQ RGGV H ȋȋ 















Ÿ

RGGV H ±ȋȋ 















>@

RGGV H H ȋ  H ȋ 













Ÿ

RGGV  ȋ ȋ















>@

7KHFRQVWDQWDQGWKHQXPHULFDOYDOXHVRIWKHYDULDEOHVLQHTXDWLRQ  DUHDOVRIRXQGLQFROXPQ H[S % RIWKHDERYHWDEOH7KLVHTXDWLRQJLYHVXVWKHIROORZLQJLQIRUPDWLRQ  :KHQ  ; WUDYHOWLPHE\WUDLQ LQFUHDVHVE\XQLWWKHQ3URE WUDLQWUXFN GHFUHDVHVE\WLPHV     ; SUREDELOLW\ RI /RVV RU 'DPDJH RI JRRGV  LQFUHDVHV E\  XQLW WKHQ 3URE WUDLQWUXFN  LQFUHDVHV E\      ,QRUGHUWRIRUPXODWHHTXDWLRQ  LQWKHIRUPRIWKHNQRZQH[SRQHQWLDOHTXDWLRQRIWKHORJLWPRGHOZH GHILQHDV$WKHULJKWSDUWRIWKHHTXDWLRQ  DQG@

6RWKHILQDOIRUPRIWKHORJLWPRGHOLQWKHFDVHRIUDWLQJWKH³LPSRUWDQFH´LV

3U RE WUDLQ  WUXFN

H ȋ ȋ     H  ;    ;   







&RPSDULQJWKLVZLWKWKHW\SLFDOH[SRQHQWLDOIRUPRIWKHORJLWPRGHOIRUWZRPRGHV ELQRPLDO/RJLW 

3N

L

H[S8 L ; MN   H[S8 L ; MN



7KHXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQFDQEHGHULYHGDV

8 ;MN

L

   ;   ;  

607

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

,QRUGHUWRJXDUDQWHHWKHVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHDERYHUHVXOWVDVHWRIWHVWVZHUHPDGH7KHPRVW LPSRUWDQWRIWKHPDUHWKHIROORZLQJ x 7HVW; &KL±6TXDUH WRGHWHUPLQHLIWKHFRHIILFLHQWVRIWKHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVRIWKHRULJLQDO PRGHODUHVWDWLVWLFDOFORVHWR]HURDQGWKH x 5FRHIILFLHQWOHYHORILPSRUWDQFHªDQGPRUHVSHFLILFDOO\³1DJHONHUNH5´ZKLFKKDVWKHYDOXHRI ZKLFKLVUHODWLYHO\ORZEXWZKHQFRPSDUHGWRWKHRWKHUYDOXHVRIWKHFRHIILFLHQWVDQGHVSHFLDOO\ RI// /RJ/LNHOLKRRG LVVDWLVIDFWRU\)RUH[DPSOHIRUWKLVSDUWLFXODUFDVHWKHFRHIILFLHQWVIRXQG ZHUH  6WHS /RJOLNHOLKRRG &R[ 6QHOO5 1DJHONHUNH5        /RJLWPRGHOVXVLQJWKHUDWLQJVRI³6DWLVIDFWLRQ´UHFHLYHG %DVHGRQWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DSSOLHGLQWKHDERYHPRGHOIRUPXODWLRQWKHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLV FRQWLQXHGIRUWKHIRUPXODWLRQRIWKHPRGHOZLWKWKHVDPHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHDQGLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV WKHUDWLQJVRIWKHFULWHULDWKDWDIIHFWWKHFKRLFHRIWUDLQRYHUWUXFNEDVHGRQWKHOHYHORI³VDWLVIDFWLRQ UHFHLYHG´ 7KHPRGHO¶VFRHIILFLHQWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHEHORZDQGWKHHTXDWLRQKDVWKHIROORZLQJIRUP

OQ RGGV    ;   ;    ;    ;   ;   7DEOH)LQDO/RJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQFRHIILFLHQWV ZLWKVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFH XVLQJDV³GHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH´WKHSUREDELOLW\WRFKRRVH WUDLQRYHUWUXFNLQWKHFDVHRI³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´

,QGHSHQGHQW9DULDEOHV &RQVWDQW ;5HOLDELOLW\ WLPHRIGHOLYHU\  DQGTXDOLW\RIVHUYLFH ;(DVHRIDFFHVVWRWKHPRGH ;&XVWRPHUVHUYLFHTXDOLW\ ;6L]HRIORDG ;)UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH

%            

6WDQGD UG(UURU      

: DOG

G I

 



 



 



 



 





FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOIRU(;3 %  /RZH 8SSHU UERXQG ERXQG

([S % 

J 



6L            





          























 7KHIROORZLQJWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVDUHDSSOLHG



HOQ RGGV  H ±ȋ±;;;±; 









RGGV H ±ȋ±;;;±; 















Ÿ

>@ RGGV H   H ;  H ;  H ;  H ;  H ; 

Ÿ

608

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

RGGV  ; ; ; ; ; 





>@

)URPWKHDERYHHTXDWLRQWKHIROORZLQJFDQEHVWDWHG :KHQ  ; 5HOLDELOLW\ DQG TXDOLW\ RI VHUYLFH  LV LQFUHDVHG E\  XQLW WKHQ 3URE WUDLQWUXFN  LV GHFUHDVHG E\  WLPHV ȋ (DVHRIDFFHVVWRWKHPRGH LVLQFUHDVHGE\XQLWWKHQ3URE WUDLQWUXFN LVGHFUHDVHGE\WLPHV ȋ &XVWRPHUVHUYLFHTXDOLW\ LVLQFUHDVHGE\XQLWWKHQ3URE WUDLQWUXFN LVLQFUHDVHGE\WLPHV ȋ 6L]HRIORDG LVLQFUHDVHGE\XQLWWKHQ3URE WUDLQWUXFN LVLQFUHDVHGE\WLPHV ȋ )UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH LVLQFUHDVHGE\XQLWWKHQ3URE WUDLQWUXFN LVGHFUHDVHGE\WLPHV  %\XVLQJWKHVDPHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVDVSUHYLRXVO\WKHILQDOIRUPRIWKHORJLWPRGHOHTXDWLRQLQWKHFDVH RIUDWLQJVDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHGLVGHULYHGDV

3U RE WUDLQ  WUXFN



H ȋ  ȋ   ;  ;   ;     H ȋ ȋ   ;  ;   ; 







>@ 7KHIRUPRIWKHXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQLV

8 ;MN

L

  ;  ;   ;   ;   ;  

2YHUDOO&RQFOXVLRQVDQGILQGLQJV 7KLVSDSHUKDVSUHVHQWHGWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DQGWKHUHVXOWLQJPRGHOVIURPDIUHLJKWPRGDOFKRLFHVXUYH\ DQGDQDO\VLVFRQGXFWHGLQ*UHHFHLQWKHSHULRG $OODQVZHUVLQWKHVXUYH\ZHUHJLYHQDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\DOOPRGHOOLQJZDVGRQHXQGHUWZRYLHZSRLQWV x )URPWKHSRLQWRIYLHZRIWKH³LPSRUWDQFH´WKDWWKRVHDQVZHULQJDWWDFKHVWRWKHVSHFLILFFULWHULRQRU x )URPWKHSRLQWRIYLHZRIWKH³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´IURPXVLQJWKHH[LVWLQJWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPLQ *UHHFH ,Q VXPPDUL]LQJ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV WKH IROORZLQJ 7DEOH  SUHVHQWV WKH YDULDEOHV WKDW LQIOXHQFH WKH PRGDO FKRLFH DV H[SUHVVHG E\ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV EHWZHHQWKHDYHUDJHRYHUDOOUDWLQJIRUWUXFNDQGWKHUDWLQJVRIWKHYDULDEOHVVKRZQ 

609

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

7DEOH6XPPDU\RIUHVXOWVIURPWKHUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLV

;5HOLDELOLW\ WLPH RIGHOLYHU\ DQG TXDOLW\RIVHUYLFH ;(DVHRIDFFHVVWR WKHPRGH ;7UDQVSRUWFRVW LQFOXGLQJFRVWRI RUGHUHWF  ;3UREDELOLW\IRU ORDG/RVVDQG 'DPDJH ;6L]HRIORDG ;6KLSPHQWOLIH ;6KLSPHQWYDOXH ;)UHTXHQF\RI VHUYLFH ;&DSDELOLW\RI KDQGOLQJODUJH VL]HORDGV ;&DSDELOLW\IRU WUDFNLQJDQG WUDFLQJRIWKH VKLSPHQW ;$YDLODELOLW\RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQ JHTXLSPHQW

   

ȋ5HOLDELOLW\ WLPHRI GHOLYHU\ DQGTXDOLW\ RIVHUYLFH ȋ(DVHRIDFFHVVWRWKH PRGH

 

ȋ6L]HRIORDG

 

ȋ6KLSPHQWYDOXH

     

ȋ)UHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH 

  

ȋ6L]HRIORDG

 

ȋ6KLSPHQWOLIH

 

ȋ6KLSPHQWYDOXH ȋ)UHTXHQF\RI VHUYLFH ȋ&DSDELOLW\RI KDQGOLQJODUJH VL]HORDGV ȋ$YDLODELOLW\RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQ JHTXLSPHQW

&RHIILFL HQWV

9DULDEOHV

9DULDEOHV

 



 

ȋ6L]HRIORDG

 

ȋ6KLSPHQWYDOXH

 

ȋ$YDLODELOLW\RI XQ ORDGLQJ HTXLSPHQW

 

















 





 





     

    





 





 





 













 















 



     1RWH7KHFRHIILFLHQWVVKRZQDUHWKHXQVWDQGDUGLVHGRQHV 

&RQVWDQW

ȋ5HOLDELOLW\ WLPH RIGHOLYHU\ DQG TXDOLW\RIVHUYLFH ȋ(DVHRIDFFHVVWR WKHPRGH ȋ3UREDELOLW\IRU ORDG/RVVDQG 'DPDJH

 

&RHIILFL HQWV

5HVXOWVZKHQPHDVXULQJ³6DWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´ )RUZDUGHUV±ORJLVWLFVHUYLFH 2ZQHUVRIJRRGV SURYLGHUV

&RHIILFL HQWV

HV

9DULDEO

&RHIILFL HQWV

HV

9DULDEO

5HVXOWVZKHQPHDVXULQJ³,PSRUWDQFH´ )RUZDUGHUV±ORJLVWLFVHUYLFH 2ZQHUVRIJRRGV SURYLGHUV

 

)URPWKHDERYH7DEOHRQHFDQFRQFOXGHWKDW x )RUWKHFDVHRIUDWLQJWKH³LPSRUWDQFH´DWWDFKHGE\WKHUHVSRQGHQWVWRHDFKFULWHULRQWKHUDWLQJRIWKH WUXFN DVFRPSDUHGWRUDLO LVPRVWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHIROORZLQJIDFWRUV R,QWKHFDVHRIWKHRZQHUILUPVVKLSPHQWOLIHSUREDELOLW\IRUORDG/RVVDQG'DPDJHDYDLODELOLW\RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQJHTXLSPHQWUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVHUYLFH LQWHUPVRIWUDYHOWLPHVVLPSOLFLW\RI SURFHGXUHVHWF  R,QWKHFDVHRIWKHIRUZDUGLQJRUORJLVWLFILUPVUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVHUYLFH LQWHUPVRIWUDYHOWLPHV VLPSOLFLW\RISURFHGXUHVHWF YDOXHRIORDGVL]HRIORDGIUHTXHQF\RIVHUYLFH x )RUWKHFDVHRIUDWLQJWKH³VDWLVIDFWLRQUHFHLYHG´E\WKHH[LVWLQJ *UHHN WUDQVSRUWV\VWHPWKHUDWLQJRI WKHWUXFN DVFRPSDUHGWRUDLO LVPRVWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHIROORZLQJIDFWRUV

610

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

R,QWKHFDVHRIWKHRZQHUILUPVDYDLODELOLW\RIORDGLQJXQORDGLQJHTXLSPHQWUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVHUYLFH LQWHUPVRIWUDYHOWLPHVVLPSOLFLW\RISURFHGXUHVHWF  R,QWKHFDVHRIWKHIRUZDUGLQJRUORJLVWLFILUPV6L]HRIORDGVKLSPHQWYDOXHDYDLODELOLW\RI ORDGLQJXQORDGLQJHTXLSPHQW  )URPWKHDERYHLWEHFRPHVHYLGHQWWKDWWKH³UHOLDELOLW\´FULWHULRQVHHPVWREHSUHVHQWLQDOOFDVHV  7KHDQDO\VLVDQGWKHPDWKHPDWLFDOIRUPXODWLRQVWKDWDOORZHGWKHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVLQWKHIRUP RIDELQDU\ORJLWPRGHO VHHHTXDWLRQVDQGDERYH JDYHDQXPEHURILPSRUWDQWUHVXOWVWRRDV x ,WZDVSRVVLEOHWRJLYHPRGHOVKDYLQJDV³GHSHQGHQW´YDULDEOHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIFKRRVLQJWUXFNRYHU UDLO7KLVE\LWVHOIFDQEHDXVHIXOWRROIRUUHVHDUFKHUVDQGSROLF\PDNHUVLQWKHIXWXUH x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±WKHVHSUHVHQWDXWKRUVKRSH±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

T. P. Moschovou and G. A. Giannopoulos / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 597 – 611

 (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ,QWHUPRGDO4XDOLW\ ,4 3URMHFW  )LQDOUHSRUWIRUSXEOLFDWLRQ3URMHFW IXQGHGE\WKH(&XQGHUWKHWK)UDPHZRUN3URJUDPPH 0DWHDU6 *UD\5  )DFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJIUHLJKWVHUYLFHFKRLFHIRUVKLSSHUVDQGIUHLJKW VXSSOLHUV,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI3K\VLFDO'LVWULEXWLRQDQG/RJLVWLFV0DQDJHPHQW9RO1R  -RYLFLF*  (YDOXDWLRQRIVRPHLPSRUWDQWTXDOLW\SDUDPHWHUVLQORQJGLVWDQFHJRRGVWUDQVSRUW 7HWUD3ODQ$SVS &KLDQJ

Suggest Documents