NBER Working Paper Series National Bureau of

NBER Working Paper Series

THE PACIFIC BASIN IN WORLD TRADE:

PART I, CURRENT—PRICE TRADE MATRICES, 1948—1975

Bert C. Hickman, Yoshimi Kuroda, Lawrence J. Lau

Working Paper No. 190

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 204 Junipero Serra Boulevard, Stanford, CA 94305

August 1977

NBER working papers are distributed Informally and in limited number for comments only. They should not be quoted without written permission of the author.

This report has not undergone the review accorded official NBERpublications; in particular, It has not yet been submitted for approval by the Board of Directors.

S

Research for this paper was supported in part by grants to the NBER from the Sumitomo Fund for Policy Research Studies, the Bank of America, and Dillingham Corporation.

The Pacific Basin in World Trade

Part 1, Current—Price Trade Matrices, 1948_1975*

Bert G. Hickman, Yoshimi Kuroda, and Lawrence J, Lau

1. Introduction

This is the first of a sequence of papers on international flows of merchandise trade among fifteen Pacific Basin countries and between them

and eleven regions in the Rest of the World. The basic purpose of this report is to present and document annual data on bilateral flows of exports in current prices among the 26 countries and regions in matrix

form for the years 1948 through 1975. A second report will provide export price deflators and trade matrices in constant prices for 1955— 1975, and a third will analyze the changing pattern of Pacific Basin trade over the same period.

The present report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we justify the concept of a Pacific Basin regional economy and describe the postwar trends in Its share of world trade and In Its internal trading relation-

ships. Section 3 contains a detailed description of the construction of the annual trade matrices. The matrices themselves are presented in Appendix D. Appendix A lists the countries in each regional grouping, and Appendices B and C document adjustments to the basic International Monetary Fund Directions of Trade (DOT) data for the trade of socialist countries and that of Malaysia and Singapore.

*Research for this paper was supported in part by grants to the NBER from the Sumitomo Fund for Policy Research Studies, the Bank of America, and Dlllingham Corporation. Henry Moore provided invaluable advice on computational aspects of the research.

2

2. The Pacific Basin Economy

The Pacific Basin regional economy is a large and important part of the world economy which has received much less attention and research

than Western Europe or the Atlantic community. Unlike the latter areas, it is interesting also because of the extreme heterogeneity in the degree

of development of the countries in the region. This fact, plus the high degree of interdependence among economies in the region, makes for an ideal unit for the study of interactions between developed and developing countries.

Fifteen countries are distinguished in the Pacific Basin, and the

rest of the world is disaggregated into eleven regions. The countries

and regions are: Australia, Canada, Republic of China, People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, U.S.A.,

U.S.S.R., Western Europe, Oil Producing Countries of the Middle East, Other Middle East, Oil Producing Countries of Africa, Other Africa, Oil Producing Countries of the Western Hemisphere, Other Western Hemisphere, Socialist Countries of Asia, Other Asia, Socialist Countries of the Rest

of the World, and Rest of Oceania. Exports to or from countries or regions unknown or unspecified are allocated to a twenty—seventh

category: Not Elsewhere Classified (NEC). The Pacific Basin regional economy includes all the national economies which border on the Pacific Ocean, with the exception of the

Latin American economies. The latter are excluded on the grounds that

3

their trade (and investment) ties are primarily with the U.S. or Europe

and almost negligible with the rest of the Pacific Basln) With the exception of the U.S.S.R., the fifteen countries distinguished in this study already comprise a closely integrated regional trading bloc of highly interdependent economies, and the U.S.S.R. has been included because of its past importance and present high growth

potential in the region. Table 1 shows for each of the fifteen countries for each year from 1948 to 1975 the Pacific Basin's share of the country's total exports, and also the share going to the U.S. alone,

given in parentheses. It may be observed that as of 1975, one country (Indonesia) sent more than 80 percent of her exports to the other Pacific

Basin countries; four countries (Canada, Republic of China, Korea, and the Philippines) sent between 70 and 80 percent; four countries (Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) sent between 60 and 70

percent; three countries (People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and

Japan) sent between 50 and 60 percent. New Zealand sent 49.5 percent of her exports to other Pacific Basin countries. Only two countries, U.S.A. (40.4) and U.S.S.R. (5.8), sent significantly less than 50 percent of their respective exports to other Pacific Basin countries. In addition, ten of the fifteen countries have since 1951 sent more

than half of their exports to the other Pacific Basin countries. The exceptions are Australia, People's Republic of China, New Zealand,

U.S.A., and U.S.S.R. The share of People's Republic of Chiia exports

'See Hickman, Bert G. and Lau, Lawrence J., "Pacific Ba8in National Econometric Models: A Survey and an Evaluation of Linkage Feasibility," Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, Number 2, Spring 1976.

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destined for other Pacific Basin countries have, however, been consis-

tently higher than 45 percent. For Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S.A., the shares of exports to other Pacific Basin countries have all

increased substantially since 1951. The U.S.S.R., however, showed a drastic decline during the same period, from 59.6 percent to 5.8 percent. The decline can be attributed partly to the cessation of the Korean War

and partly to the deterioration in Sino—Soviet relations. It is clear that the potential for increased U.S.S.R. exports to the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the U.S.A. is there. Similarly, Table 2 gives for each of the fifteen countries the shares of total imports that are received from other Pacific Basin

countries for each year from 1948 through 1975. The corresponding shares of total imports received from the U.S.A. are given in paren-

theses. The results are broadly similar to those of Table 1. As of 1975, seven countries (Canada,Republic of China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines) received more than 70 percent of their imports from other Pacific Basin countries; two countries (Singapore and Thailand) received between 60 and 70 percent; four countries (Australia, People's Republic of China, Japan, and New

Zealand) received between 50 and 60 percent. Of the fifteen countries, only two, U.S.A. (46.8) and U.S.S.R. (14.0), received less than 50 percent.

In addition, the same ten countries that have been sending more than 50 percent of their exports to other Pacific Basin countries since

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other Pacific Basin countries for every single year since 1951. Of the five exceptions, the People's Republic of China has consistently received more than 40 percent of her imports from other Pacific Basin countries since 1951; Australia and New Zealand have increased the shares of their imports from other Pacific Basin countries dramatically over the years.

For the U.S.A., the share has increased from 36.4 percent in 1951 to

46.8 in 1975. The U.S.S.R. is the only country which showed a decline over the same period, due no doubt in part to the deterioration in Sino— Soviet relations.

Based on the data presented, one will have to conclude that the degree of international economic interdependence within the Pacific Basin has been and continues to be quite extensive and significant and is growing stronger over time.

For the interest of readers, Japan's share of each country's exports and imports is shown in parentheses in Tables 3 and 4, which parallel

Tables 1 and 2. There is no question that Japan and the U.S.A. account for a large proportion of the exports and imports of other Pacific Basin countries.

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