Y. Sanyal, B., Higher Education and Employment, The Falmer Press, 1987. ... economic depression, or the information technology revolution of the 1980s? But.
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The Higher EducationCrisis in Developing Countries
by Jamil Salmi
Education and Employment Division Population and Human Resources Department The World Bank May 1991
This publication seriessenresas an cullet for backgroundproductsfrom the ongoing workprogram of policy researchand analysisof the Educationand EmploymientDimisionin the Populationand Human ResourcesDepartmentof the WorldBank T7heviewsexpressedare those of the author(s),and should not be attributedto the WorldBank
This paper was originally presented at the May 1991 course on Sociology of Science at the Inter-UniversityCentre in Dubrovnik. I would like to thank A. Verspoor, V. Selvaratnam,T. Eisemon, E. Thulstrup and B. Frederiksen for their helpful comments on an earlier draft.
3
The InternationalBank for Reconstructionand Development/ The WorldBank, 1991
Table of Contents
Fage Summary . . . . . .T. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Introduction From Enthusiasm Shared
.....
The
Higher
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
the Role of National
Responsibility: International
.
. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .
to Disenchantment
Expertise
Education
1
......
Leadership
.... . . . . .
Environment
in
and .......
.
5
Perspective:
Constraints and Uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Reform and Survival Strategies ......
Conclusion .........................
. . .. . . .. .
.
12
.
19
This paper looks at the current higher education crisis in developing countries and discusses how problems are analyzed and decisions made in the context of higher education reform. It focuses in particular on discrepancies between objectives and achievementsin an attempt to highlight the importanceof risk analysis in strategic planning for higher education development. has experiencedradical In mvjt developingcountries,higher riducation transformationssince independence. After three decades of rapid expansion in a relatively worry-free context, it is becoming increasingly threatened and tested, in terms of missions, resources and outcomes,by an environment full of constraints and challenges. But traditional approaches to higher education planning and decision-makinghave failed to build into their development and reform strategies appropriate mechanisms to evaluate risks and ueal with uncertainties. Countries are following three main strategiesto minimize the adverse effects of the crisis: the passive risk a22roach,the positiverisk approach,and the diffuse risk a22roach. In the first instance, there is a conscious decision not to tackle any sensitive issues because of the potentiallynegativepolitical implications. In the second case
there is a deliberate effort to introduce
meaningfulreforms. In the third case, a more timid approach is followedwhereby the education authorities introduce reforms in limited segments of the higher education sector. Expertshave recentlyadvocateda contingencyapproach to planning for education projects sponsored by international donor agencies, taking into consideration the management recuirements for a smooth implementation of innovativeeducationprojects in an uncertainenvironment. In the case of higher education reforms, focusing on managerial variables is important but not sufficient. An impact assessmentaDDroach is needed to reflect the challenging nature of higher education reforms which, by essence, confront established practices and vested interests.
-2 The Hither Edug ttion Crisis in Develooing Countries: Issues. Problems, Constraints and Reforms Introduction "...
the crisis of higher education is not merely one of
public confidence vis-a-vis the performance of higher education; it is also, and perhaps more fundamentally,an internal crisis of purpos3, that is, one which touches on the very nature of individualinstitutions,their roles and functions and their place in the total higher education systemY." Higher education is in crisis'.
After being hailed as agents of
modernization and economic growth, universities are now comi.ngunder heavy criticism. In many developingcountries,educationplannersand decision-makers are confrontedwith an alarming situationof uncontrolledgrowth of enrollments and expenditures against a background of diminishing financial resources, a decline in the quality of teachingand research,and a rising problem of mismatch and graduate unemployment. What has gone wrong? How is it possible that the carefully planned developmentof higher educationduring the last three decades has led to a crisis situation characterized by a pattern of unmanageable expansion? What kind of reforms are feasible and effective to overcome the present crisis? This paper focuses on issues of policy analysis,problem construction, and decision-makingwith respect to the higher education sub-sector. It looks, in particular, at discrepanciesbetween intentionsand results, objectives and
Y. Statement made during the 1981 OECD intergovernmentalConference on Policies for Higher Education, quoted in Taylor, W., Universitiesunder Scrutiny, OECD, 1987, p. 7. W. The term higher education is used in this paper as a generic expression to designate various types of formal post-secondaryeducation institutionsthat train middle- and high-level professionalpersonnel in degree, diploma and certificate granting programs. Instead of relying on a narrow notion restricted to traditionaluniversitiesand colleges, it seems more appropriate to have a wider view reflecting the growing complexity and diversity of modern higher education systems.
3achievements, in an attempt to highlight the imnortance of risk analysis in strategic planning for higher education development. After outlining the main characteristicsof the current crisis, the paper identifies pitfalls and flaws in past approaches to higher education planning.
It then analyses the main constraints bearing upon the future of
higher education systems. Finally it examines to what extent reform strategies and responses by the various actors involvedare likely to succeed. From Enthusiasm to Disenchantment "One of the abiding impressionsof this consultationis the sense of loss, amounting almost to grief, of some of the most senior professors in the older African universitiesas they compare the present state of their universitieswith the vigor, optimism and pride which the same institutions displayed twenty or thirty years ago. It is not just the universal regret of age at the passing of youth, nor the sad awareness that a generationof unique academicpioneers has almost run its course. It is also the grim knowledge that the nature of the universityexperiencetoday is profoundly different for many teachers and students, so different and so inferior that some wonder whether it can rightly be called a university experience at all."' In the early 1960s, the African,Asian and Latin Americanministers of education met under the auspices of Unesco in Addis-Ababa,Bangkok and Santiago respectively to adopt very comprehensive educational development programs calling, among other priorities, for a rapid increase in higher education enrollments.
The ambitious quantitative objectives adopted at that time
reflected a strong commitment to rapidly train the middle and higher level professional, technical and
managerial manpower required for
economic
development. The results surpassed the initial expectations. Between 1960 and the late 1980s, higher education enrollmentswere multipliedby 9 in Africa, 4 in
F. Coombe, T., "A Cousultationon Higher Education in Africa", Report to the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation,January 1991, p. 2.
-4 Asia and 9 in Latin America. This rapid expansion was fueled by a strong social demand for higher education, seen as the main avenue for social mobility and promotion, and facilitated by generous government policies of open admission, free education and, in many countries, grants for nll students and guaranteed employment for all graduates. However, the very successof these expansionarypolicieshas put higher education in jeopardy as enrollmentshave grown at a faster pace than resources. There is a general feeling that the quality of teachingand learninghas declined as a
result of overcrowding, inadequate staffing, deteriorating physical facilities, poor library resources and insufficientscientific equipment. Irn
many cases, internalefficiency is very low and a significantproportion of the budget ir wasted. In Madagascarand Senegal, for example, the pass rate at the end of the first year of universityis only 13% and 20% respectively. Moreover, in many countries, the higher education system has been so effective,at least in quantitativeterms, in traininggrowing numbers of medical doctors,teachers, engineers and scientists that the phenomenon of graduate unemployment and underemploymenthas become a seriousproblem even in scientificfields. This has been observed for instance in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Philippines,Peru and Egypty. Paradoxically,the rapid expansion of higher education has also had adverse effects from a social equity viewpoint. Despite increased democratizationin terms of studentenrollment,the present pattern of allocation of resources between levels of education is highly inequitable. In many developing countries,where the majority of students come from high and middle income families, higher education receives a disproportionate share of the governmenteducation budget. In Brazil, for instance,23% of the budget goes to 2% of the student population; in Rwanda 15% goes to 0.2% of the student population. In developingcountriesas a whole, the average unit cost in higher education represents370% of per capita income versus only 49% in industrialized countries.
Y. Sanyal, B., Higher Education and Employment,The Falmer Press, 1987.
-5-
The
present c.risis hds
shaken the
confidence of
university
administrators,academics, students and employers alike. tiuchof the blame is put on the economic recession of the 1980s to explain the lack of resources and the diminishing job prospects.
But is the higher education crisis just an
outcome of adverse economiccircumstancesor the logical result of unsustainable structural trends? Shared ResDonsibilitX: the Role of National- LeadershL2 and Intern-ational
"If the only tool you have is a hammer, then all problems look like nails". It is easy and somewhat unfair to blame educational planners and decision-makers for their past mistakes on the basis of what we know today. After all, how could anyora have foreseen the 1973 oil crisis and the resulting economic depression,or the informationtechnologyrevolutionof the 1980s? But it may still be legitimate to examine what assumptionswere made when policies for higher educationdevelopmentwere initiallydefined and for what reasons past approacheshave failed to properly identify potential risks. In the aftermath of their newly recovered independence,leaders in developing countries followed internationalconventionalwisdom in the belief that the most important priority was to train as many qualified people as possible in professional fields relevant to the needs of the economy. Whether as part of a genuine effort to democratizehigher education in the process of overcomingmanpower shortages,or simply for demagogy and complacency reasons, many governmentscreatedunlimited expectationsamong the populationby allowing autoruaticaccess to higher education for all secondary schools graduates, by inscribingin their country'sconstitutiona commitmentto provide free education at all levels, and by offering a public sector employment guarantee to all university graduates.
This approach reflected a vision of the State as a
institution. It also revealedan optimisticconfidencein the future, believolent grounded on the implicit belief that the economic environment would remain eternally favorable and that resourceswould keep flowing regardlessof the size
-6 of the highereducationsystem. It madeno allowancefor unforeseenconstraints thusignoringthe high risknatureof highereducation and potentialdeviatLons, investmentsconsideringtheir size, long gestation period and political sensitivity. The type of planningtechniquesused to orient the developmentof with thisapproach.Many highereducationin the 1960sand 1970swas consistent peanmanpowerplanningmodel to estimate, developingcountriesfollowedthe ssill in much detail, future occupations.,
requirementsby professionand training
needsby field. The resultsof thisexercisewerecarefullyobservedto planthe expansionof universityprograms and the establishmentof new specialized and institutes.But thesetechniqueswere flawedfrom both the methodological standpoints. theoretical of findingthe necessarydata,manpower Apart from the difficulties forecastshave indeedmany limitations.Employmentprojectionmodelsrely on trends;labordemandis derivedas of productionand productivity extrapolations a functionof sectoraloutputlevels throughfixed labor coefficients.This the relativemix of occupations alonedetermines approachassumesthattechnology in each industryand that,as a result,there is a rigidtechnicalrelationship of horizontal and trainingprograms,ignoringthepossibility betweenoccupations betweendifferentcategoriesof manpower'. and verticalsubstitution In reality, however, it has been observed that,'exceptin very and may lead to the same occupation specializedfields,severalqualifications also that a given form of trainingcan prepare for a number of different 1 '. Moreover,with the rapid growth of the supply of university occupations whereby or verticalsubstitution graduates,thereis a processof down-scaling in positionsare being filledby people who are over-qualified occupational and Human CapitalFormation",in Economy-Wide N. Blitzer,C., "Employment Modelsand DeveloRmentPlanning,Blitzer,C., Clark,P., and Taylor,L., eds., OxfordUniversityPress,1975. Principlesof EducationPlanning Carnoy,M., Educationand EmDloyment, SCr-.'s, number 26, IIEP/Unesco, 1977. W.
-7relation to the skill requirementsof the job. In Egypt, for example, an increasingnumber of engineersare occupyingtechnician-level posit!-ns,and techniciansare pusheddownwardsto work as skilledworkersV. Finally,since manpowerforec'asts extrapolate on past trends,by definitionthey fail to take intoaccountpotentialtechnicalchange,its likelyimpacton the industrial and occupational mix of employment and the corresponding shiftsin skillrequirements and trainingneeds. It is importantto note the convergence of approachbetweennational leaderships and the international donorcommunity,which reinforcedthe trends describedabove. While many nationswere proud of their independence with respectto primaryand secondary education,theneedfor highereducationsystems to maintainmultiplelinkswith the outsideworldwas widelyaccepted,exceptin extremecases like China during the CulturalRevolution. As a result, the technicalassistancegivenby foreignexpertsand the financialsupportprovided by donoragenciesreinforcedthe developingcountries' emphasison unrestricted quantitative expansion. For instance,the lendingpatternof the World Bank, which devoted30% of its investmentin educationto the higher educationsubsector,was heavilybiased,throughoutthe 1960sand 1)70s,towardssupportfor manpower development. Higher educationprojects we.e usually designed to establishor strengthenspecialized traininginstitutes, notablyin agriculture and engineering.It is only in the early1980s thatmore systematicattention began to be given to sector-wideissues of management,financing,quality 1 '. improvement, and internaland externalefficiency Europeanand NorthAmericanbilateraldonoragencieshave beenkeen to proviL. support for the developmentof higher education institutionsin developingcountriesthroughuniversitylinkageprograms. Whilesuch programs have been very usefulin helpingteachersand researchers maintainprofessional Salmi,J., "Vocational Educationin Algeria,Egypt and Morocco:the Crisis and its Lessons",WAspects,volumeXX, number1, 1990. 11.
IV. DeStefano,J., and Rinaldi,R., "WorldBank Lendingfor University Education:a generaloperational review",The WorldBank, unpublished report, 1990.
-3 and intellectual ties with sister institutionsin industrializedcountries, it has often happened that the programswere designed to fit prLmarily the research interests of the Northern institutions involved, that they promoted the establishmentof academic 'oases'without multiplier effects on the rest of the university, and that they lacked proper mechanismsto ensure sustainabilityafter closure of whe project. For example, the USAID-supportedlinkage agriculture res^rch project between the Bogor Universityof Agriculture in Indonesia and a consortium of North-American¶-niversities was very successful until the mid1970s. But within a few years after the project ended, the positlve results faded owing to the lack of financial resources and political commitment to sustain previous efforts and the failure to define a long term research policyW. In Egypt, the sub-projects financed under the university linkage program supported by the Canadian Agency for InternationalDevelopment (CIDA) in the second half of the 1980s were essentially initiated by Canadian universities eager to expand their income-generatingo-oerseas activities. The program evolved on an ad-hoc basis and failed to promote innrovative approaches to curriculum design and institutionaldevelopmentlw. As the growth of enrollments in primary and secondary education accelerated in the 1970s, education planners in developingcountries failed to assess the implicationsin terms of higher educationexpansioai and expenditures. Because unit costs are typically much higher at tertiary level tlhaafor primary and secondaryschooling,the swell of the urniversity system has generally meant a rising share of the higher educationbudget. Even if budgetary resources had continued to be forthcoming,the pattern of unlimited expansion of higher education enrollments at no direct cost to the students could not have been sustained forever.
W. Raghaviah,Y., Third World Education and Post-WarAmerican Influences, Hyderabad University Press, 1982. 1Y. From interviewswith Egyptian and Canadian officials curing missions in Cairo between 1987 and 1990.
-9-
A similar line of reasoning applies to the emergence of graduate unemployment. While it is undeniablethat the economiccrisis has had an adve2-se impact on the level of job creaiion, and that the lack of relevance of many university programs also contributes to the mismatch betwsen graduates and occupations, it is obvious that graduate unemployment has become, in many countries, a structural problem reflecting a fundamental -.ithmetic imbalance between the number of universitygraduates and the number of new jobs available in the modern sector of the economy. However, from the point of view of politicalaccountability,education policy makers can convenientlyhide behind the approach followed initially,with its focus on technical issues of manpower training, to exonerate their responsibility. It allows them to blame the higher educationcrisis on external and uncontrollableeconomicforces. Having involuntarilyor deliberatelyavoided to take potential risks into consideration,the authoritiescan always feature today'sproblemsof diminishingresources,poor trainingand research qualityand graduateunemploymentas unfortunate,unforeseen,irrationaland accidentalsideeffects of the strategy followed, even though they might reflect contradictions which are built into the logic and structure of the system. But how much longer will it be possible to continue ignoring the internal and external constraints bearing upon the higher education system? The Higher Education Environment in Perspective:Constraintsand Uncertainties If the words certitude and confidence adequately describe the mood which prevailed in most developingcountriesjust after independen.;a, doubt axld apprehensionwould be the right terms to characterizethe present disposition. The environment in which higher education systems operate has indeed become increasinglyunstable and unpredictable. At the economic level, the performanceof higher educationis directly influenced by the availability of tinancial resources. Higher education is sensitive to changes in the overall size of the public budget and in priorities within the budget.
The budget, in turn, is affected by the national and
internationaleconomicand financialsituation. Many countrieshave accumulated
-
10
-
a largeforeigndebtfinancedby a growingfiscaldeficitand are faced%ith the need to implementstructuraladjustmentprogramsincludingmeasuresto reduce communityin public expenditures. The renewedinterestof the international basic education,symbolizedby the 1990World Conferenceon Educationfor All, is also likelyto cause shifts in resourceallocationfrom higher to primary budgetaryresourcesto finance education.Therefore,theprospectsfor increased highereducationare anythingbut promising. by the The externalefficiencyof the universitysystemis determined labormarketoutlook. Both structuraladjustmentand technicalchangehave an availableto higher impacton the level,typeand spatiallocationof occupations educationgraduates. Adjustmentprogramsbring about shifts in the sectoral allocationof jobs. In Cote d'Ivoire,Malaysiaand Boliviafor example,there has been a shift from manufacturingand governmentemploymentback to agriculture'y.In Egypt, the recessionled to a large drop in the numberof jobs in the manufacturingsector. Technologicalinnovationsinfluencethe evolutionof employmentstructuresand job contents,with relatedchangesin skill requirementsand trainingneeds. A series of ILO case studies of automationin the banking, engineering,electricalappliance,and printing industriesin Asian countrieshave showna greatvarietyof outcomes,including and examplesof the creationof new jobs,upwardchangesin skillrequirements, A recentstudyof the staffingneeds of the de-skillingin some activitiesaW. changesin the distribution significant chemicalindustryin Denmarkanticipates of employmentof engineersand scientistsamong the three main technical and qualitycontrol.Whilethe staffingpatterns functionsof R & D, production, of the productionand quality control departmentsare expected to remain will be growingvery rapidlyand will relativelystable,the R & D departments
IV. Horton,S., Kanbur,R., and Mazumdar;D., "LaborMarketsin an Era of paper,The World Bank, February1991. Adjustment:an Overview",unpublished Change.Work Organization Technological Labor Organization, ll.International RelationsSeries, and Pay: Lessonsfrom Asia,Geneva:ILO, Labor-Management number68, 1988.
.
11
-
be recruitinga greaterproportionof Ph.DslW. Anticipating new and emerging skillrequirements is difficultas theydo not appearin past employmenttrends and are not identifiedby traditional manpowerforecasting techniques. The politicalenvironmentof higher educationhas become highly exploslve. Issuesof principlessuch as open admission,free education,or guaranteeof employmentare very sensltivesubjectswhich governments need to treatwithmuchcaution.While,in industrialized countries, the radicalstudent movementsof the late 1960sdid not go beyondshakingthe established order,in developingcountries,studentrevoltshave been knownto topplegovernments, as happened in South Korea and Thailandfor example. During the last decade, students created serious politicalupheavalsin Argentina,Bolivia, Peru, Uruguay,Bangladesh, Burma,Indonesia,India,Turkey,Nigeria,Liberia,Ghana, 11 . Niger and Senegal In 1989, student unrest prompted the closure of universities in Kenya,Ugandaand Zimbabwe. In March 1991,the MalianMinister of Educationwas lynchedby an angry mob. Studentsrebel for a variety of reasons: in Guinea, they recently demonstratedto obtain better learning conditions; in Cameroon,studentsburnedall university recordsfor fearthatthe rulesaboutmultiplerepeaterswouldbe strictlyenforced.In any event,failure to weighthe politicalrisksof any universityreformproposalcouldbe suicidal for educationpolicymakers. The presenceof many autonomousactorsin highereducationis also a complicating factorwhen it comesto implementing plannedchange. Unlikemany otherpublicinstitutions whichhavea relatively simpleorganizational and power structure, universities have a multiplicity of verticaland horizontallevelsof authorityand professional competencewhich complicateany reformattempt. It is also important to recognize that, besides the students, university administrators and professorsare two major sub-groups with theirown agendas.
"Evaluation reporton highereducationin chemistry", Ministryof Education,Denmark,1989. IV.
1Y. Altbach,P., ed., StudentPoliticalActivism:an international reference handbook,GreenwoodPress,1989.
-
12
-
Because of the built-in traininglag, higher education systems respond slowly to rapid change in the environment. By definition,it takes severalyears to develop and implement reforms of higher education structuresor programs and several more years to evaluate the performanceof the new graduates. Thus, there is a substantialrisk of wrong orientationor obsolescenceeven before the reform or innovation introducedcan bear fruit. The higher education system is caught between changing demands difficult to foresee and a rigid structure which requires years to transform itself. the increasinglycomplex and, in many ways, volatile nature of the environmentin which higher educationfunctionsmakes it impossibleto ignore Thus,
risk as a key variable. Reform and Survival Strategies In responseto the higher educationcrisis, the various actors involved tend to adopt a variety of strategies to minimize the adverse effects of the crisis or even to suppress some of its causes. This section looks at some of these strategies,focusingon two groups of actors:the educationauthoritiesand the students.
A distinction is made between reforms, which are deliberate
attempt to address problems, and responses, which are just reactions to difficulties. For the educationauthorities,risks are already involvedat the level of problem identification. In some cases, when the issues at hand are too sensitive to be even raised publicly,decisionmakers find it more convenientto deliberatelyignore them. "A phenomenon is not in itself a problem. What is thrown before us may be perceived either as an inescapableact of unassailable forces, to be accepted with a minimum of fuss, or as an intolerable disruption to our convenience and designs, to be eliminated with all necessary speed. If the latter perception
- 13
prevails, the phenomenon"i.
status
of
-
problem
is
conferred
on
the
The language issue is an interestingexample in that respect. After independence, governments were faced with a dilemma: should they keep the metropolitan language or should the national language be used as vehicle of instruction? In the former French colonies of the Maghreb, for example, Arabic was used as the main medium, while French was kept as languageof instructionfor scientific subjects.
In the process, an elitist bias was introduced since
mastery of the French languageis closely linked to the socio-economicbackground of students. To eliminate this anti-democraticfactor, scientificsubjectshave been graduallyArabized at the primary and secondarylevel in recent years. Due to the lack of qualified teachersand appropriatetextbooks in Arabic, academic standardshave been falling and the education policy makers are now inclined to reconsiderthis move. However,the authoritiescan hardly reverse their decision to generalize the use of Arabic because it would be perceived as an attack against the language of the Koran, an attack against religion itself. Under the prevailing political and social circumstances,it is easier to let this matter lie quiet even if the pedagogical implications are disastrous. A similar situation is presentlyoccurring in the Philippineswith a move away from English as medium of instruction in science subjects. With respect to those phenomena which are officially labeled as problems, decision-makersare faced with a very delicate situation as they find themselvescaught between conflictingobjectives. On the one hand, from a social and political point of view, most governments in developing countries are committed to allowing any secondary school graduate to enter higher education. As a consequence,higher educationhas become supply-drivenwithout reference to available resources, quality standards,and labor market needs. The quality of education has suffered due to diminishingbudgetary resources in the context of free education policies. If this trend were to continue, it is very likely that the unchecked expansion of higher educationin responseto demographicand social
1Y. Oyenham, J., "Planning Literacy in the Context of Agricultural Development and Population Planning",unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation,Harvard University, 1974.
- 14 pressures would exacerbate the problems of limited financial resources, poor quality and difficult access to employment. From an efficiencyand equity standpoint,however, the allocationof resources to higher education and the determinationof enrollment levels and priority fields of study should reflect closely the fuLure work
force
requirementsof the economy and the need to ensure a more equal distributionof education expenditures. Any plan allowing for further unlimited expansion of higher education would be hard to justify in the present context of economic slowdown,decliningjob creationrates and increasingemploymentdifficultiesfor graduates. The most logical option would be to adopt a demand-drivenstrategy with cost-recoverymeasures. Obviously, neither option is politically or socially feasible. Appealing as the demand option may be from a purely economicviewpoint, it would not respond realisticallyto the demographic and social pressures confronting most developing countries. Similarly,a status quo approach would present the risk of further deteriorationof the quality of education due to insufficient financial resources,and of rising resentmentamong students dissatisfiedwith inadequate learning conditionsand poor job prospects. Countries typically follow one of three main strategieswhich can be characterizedas the passive risk approach. the positive risk approach, and the diffuse risk approach. In the first instance,there is a deliberatedecisionnot to tackle any sensitive issue head on because of the potentially negative pol'tical implications. This reflects a choice for protection from short term risks (student activism) rather than prevention of long term negative effects (unmanageable financial situation and
declining standards).
Education
authoritiesare content with minimal changes to keep the crisis at a manageable level in the short term. In Egypt, for example, which has one of the largest higher educationsystem in the developingworld, the Governmenthas addressedthe issue of open access by creating a large network of second-rate, two-year technical instituteswhich are no more than academic parking lots for surplus
x
15
-
studentslw. Hidden fees have also been introduced in the form of token examination, laburatory and computer fees.
But, officially, access to the
university remains unrestrictedand higher educationcontinues to be free. This very cautious approach to higher education reform might appear as a form of political apathy and lack of forward planning to outside experts.
But it
reflects a careful risk analysisabout the danger of attackingestablishedrights directly. In the second case, there is a deliberate attempt to introduce important reforms.
In Thailand, for instance, the Government officially
announced in the late 1960s that excess social demand could no_ be accommodated any more and that admission to the traditionaluniversitieswould be selective based on merit. To cope with the unmet demand, two large open universitieswere established:Sukothai and Ramkhamhaengly.In Singapore,a differentiatedcostrecovery system including merit scholarships and loans for poor students was introducedin the early 1980s in fields like engineeringand basic scienceswhich are the most expensive and in highest demand by the economy. In the third case, the education authorities follow a more timid approach involving reforms in limited segments of the higher education sector. In India, for example, the government has adopted a mixed admission policy leaving access to general liberal education entirely open but making access to the professionalfields selectiveand demand-driven. Tunisia is consideringthe establishmentof institutesof technologyafter the French model, where access would also be selec-tve and demand-driven. The degree of perception of economic, social and political risks directly affects how problems are defined and reforms implemented. Education authoritiesand experts are influenced,in particular,by the paradigmimplicitly The World Bank, Study on Technical Education in Eg=mt, Washington D.C., 1988.
ii.
lY. Wilson, D., "A Comparison of Open Universities in Thailand and Indonesia', in Lockheed, M., Middleton, J., and Nettleton,G., eds., Educational Technology: Sustainableand Effective Use, The World Bank, 1991.
16 .
used for risk evaluationjy. In the structural-functionalist tradition, there is an
intrinsic belief in a
smooth evolutionary process with marginal
disruptions,which leads to a focus on managerial and technical risks. If one accepts, however, the notion that a conflict approachprovides a better grasp of real life, it becomes necessary to considernot only potentialunexpectedevents, but also the likely reactions of all groups and individualswhose interestsare threatenedby the reforms envisaged. Very often, the main problem faced by education authorities is one of transition,not of absolute feasibility. In systems where students take it for granted that access is unrestricted and education has no direct cost, the main constraint is to make the first step to move away from open access to selective admission and from free education to some degree of cost-recovery. There are precedents indicating that different options can work, even in developingcountries. A number of former Britishcolonies,for example Ghana and Zimbabwe in Africa or Malaysia, Singapore and Sri Lanka in Asia, have successfullyimplementedmeasures to limit access to higher education. There are also a few countries with a sizeable private higher education sector, notably Brazil, the Philippines, Indonesia.
In the Arab world, where almost all
university systems have deterioratedas a result of the uncontrolled growth of enrollments,Jordan is an example of country which has been able to maintain a tradition of restrictedaccess and partial cost-recovery,and which can boast to have one of the best performing university networks in the region. It is important to observe that attempting to resolve higher education problems in isolation can backfire. For instance, in countries with open admissionpolicies, there is frequentlya process of hidden selectionat the end of the first year of university, resulting in high levels of repetition. The introductionof measuresto improveinternalefficiency,while desirablefrom the viewpoint of reducing wastage, would increase the risks of labor market saturation and rising graduate unemployment. !Y. Ginsburg, M., Cooper, S., Raghu, R., and Zegarra, H., "National and World-System Explanationsof Educational Reform", ComRarative Education Review, volume 34, number 4, 1990.
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17 -
One of the recurrent questions confronting educational planners intent on reforms is whether to concentrateon improving existing institutions or creating new institutions. In principle, it would make more sense to mend what exists before attempting to establish something new. But there is always a risk that the innovationwould fail to spread to the rest of the system and that a sort of oasis would be created in the midst of an otherwisemalfunctioning 1 9'. With the university, as has often happened in the North American context
establishmentof new institutions,however, there is a high risk of academic drift. This phenomenonhas been observed for example in Egypt, when a Technology Institute modeled after the German Fachhochshulewas set up in Helwan in the 1970s. After a few years, the faculty and the students successfullydemanded that the Institute be upgraded to the status of a full engineering collegeM'. Some of the British Polytechnics are currently being pulled in the same direction,repeating the history of the earlier Collegesof Advanced Technology (Salford,Aston) which operatedas special collegesonly one or two years before becoming universities. The recent establishmentof a second university in Senegal is an interestingexample of an attempt to revitalizehigher education from the outside rather than from the inside. Over the years, the Universityof Dakar has grown from a prestigious institutionwhich was well-respectedat the regional level into an overcrowded university accommodating 17,000 students on a campus originally designed for 4,000.
Unable to face the political risk of student
revolt in Dakar if measures to restrictaccess were taken or if stricteracademic standardswere enforced in a universitywhere 20 student-yearsare spent, on the average, to graduate one student, the authoritieshave opted for the opening, in October 1990, of a new university in Saint-Louis. Access to that institutionhas been very selective (600 new entrants out of 3,000 applicants) and innovative pedagogical practices have been introducedbased on a flexible credit system
MM'. Levine, A., Why Innovation Fails, State University of New York Press, 1980. Z2. The World Bank, "Study on Technical Education in Egypt", Washington D. C., 1988.
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by a singlewin-orFrenchcoursestructuresanctioned insteadof the traditional at the end of the academicyear. It will be very instructive fail examination featuresand willbe able to maintainits innovative to watchwhetherSaint-Louis possiblystimulatereformsat the Universityof Dakar. the risk factorcan takemany At the individuallevel,integrating aboutjob and careerprospectsto forms. Studentsmay try to find information orienttheirchoiceof fieldof study. In countrieswhere privateinstitutions of higher educationexist, growingnumbersof studentsare willingto take a relevant financialrisk to obtainwhat they perceiveas a more professionally form of trainingrather than attendingtraditionalcourses in humanitiesor socialsciencesin the publicuniversities. When graduateunemployment is a seriousproblem,studentsadoptwhat couldbe calleda stakeoutstrategywherebytheyacceptthe riskof settlingdown for temporarywork solutionswhilewaitingfor the "right"job opportunity.In Egypt,for example,whore thereis a de factofiveyearwaitingperiodto obtain a governmentjob under the employmentguaranteescheme,studentstakepart time in the informalsector occupations jobs in the privatesectoror underqualified lifeemployment job in the publicsector. In Morocco, beforethe so-much-coveted for all new graduateshad wherea compulsorytwo-yearcivilservicerequirement been introducedfifteenyearsago, the governmenthas been tryingto phaseout this schemebecauseof the growingnumberof graduatesand the heavybudgetary implications.But the new graduatesare eagerto continueto participate in the programbecause they see it as a temporaryprotectionagainstunemployment. was stillunknownin Morocco, Until fiveyears ago, when graduateunemployment everybodytried to escapefrom the civilserviceobligation. Sometimes,individualstrategiesto minimizeriskshave a negative effectat the globallevel,therebyincreasingcollectiverisk. In situations for instance,a studentmay decide to get a higher of graduateunemployment, degreethan initiallyplannedin orderto increasehis or her chancesof finding a job. One can indeedexpectthat,all otherthingsbeingequal,employerswill recruit,for a givenposition,the personwith the highestcredentials.But if
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every studsntstarts to followthe same strategy,the individualadvantagein termsof increasedchancesin the labormarketis canceledout. This is how the phenomenonknown as "diploma disease"has developedW. C2nelusion "If you are not part of the solution,thenyou are part of the problem". (anonymous radicalstudentin the 1960s) In most developingcountries,higher educationhas experienced since independence. After three decades of rapid radical transformations expansionin a relativelyworry-freecontext, it is becoming increasingly threatenedand tested,in terms of missions,resources,and outcomes,by an approachesto and challenges.But traditional environment full of constraints have failedto build into their higher educationplanningand decision-making mechanisms to evaluateuncertainty and reformstrategies appropriate development with the needto moveaway are thereforeconfronted and risk. Educationplantiers from a crisismanagementattitudeto a risk analysisapproach. of Includingrisk as an importantvariablein the identification of problemsand the designof reformsshouldnot proceed issues,the construction from the idea that the future can be controlledand that any unexpectedor undesirableevent can be avoided. But it should help think in terms of to improvingthe alternative scenariosand contingency plans,thuscontributing to enablethem to flexibility and adaptability of highereducationinstitutions risk as a respondrapidlyto changingconditionsand demands. Incorporating dimensionof policy analysisdoes not guaranteesuccess,but ignoringit is a recipefor failure.
W. Dore,R., The DiplomaDisease:Education.Oualification and DeveloRment, Allen and Unwin, 1976.
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approachto planning Expertshave recentlyadvocateda contingency and organizations development for educationprojectssponsoredby international bilateralaid agenciest'. Contingencyplanningwould go beyond traditional analysesof the financial,economicand technicaldimensionsof projectsby for a smoothimplementation requirements the management takingintononsideration of innovativeeducationprojectsin an uncertainenvironment.In the case of of the managerial higher educationreforms,focusingon the appropriateness but not sufficient.What is reallyneededis an impact is important arrangements assessmentapproach reflectingthe nature of higher educationreforms and innovationswhich, by essence, challengeestablishedpracticesand vested interests.
Planning D., Middleton,J., and Verspoor,A., "Contingency SY. Rondinelli, 1989. for InnovativeProjects",ALA Journal,Winter
