Overview - Climate Change and Adaptation

SUSTAINABILITY 2009: THE NEXT HORIZON

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SUSTAINABILITY 2009: THE NEXT HORIZON Conference Proceedings Melbourne, Florida

3 – 4 March 2009

EDITORS

Gordon L. Nelson Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, Florida

Imre Hronszky Budapest University of Technology and Economics Budapest, Hungary

SPONSORING ORGANIZATIONS Florida Institute of Technology, College of Science Florida Institute of Technology, College of Business Budapest University of Technology and Economics

Melville, New York, 2009 AIP CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

VOLUME 1157


Editors: Gordon L. Nelson, Ph.D. Dean, College of Science Florida Institute of Technology 150 West University Boulevard Melbourne, FL 32901 USA Email: [email protected] Imre Hronszky Professor Budapest University of Technology and Economics Muegyetem rkp. 3-9 H-1111 Budapest Hungary Email: [email protected]

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CONTENTS Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii G. L. Nelson CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION

Overview—Climate Change and Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 R. B. Aronson

Expect the Unexpected: A Paleoecological View of Rapid Climate Change . . . . . 7 M. Bush

Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 R. W. Parkinson

Lightning Physics and the Study of Climate Change and Sustainability . . . . . . 26 J. R. Dwyer and H. K. Rassoul

Florida’s Climate: Past, Present, and Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 S. M. Lazarus

Effects of Climate Change on Fishery Species in Florida . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 J. M. Shenker

Sustaining Ecosystem Services in the Global Coral Reef Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 R. B. Aronson and W. F. Precht GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY

Overview—Global Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 G. L. Nelson

The United Nations and Climate Change: Legal and Policy Developments . . . . 61 I. D. Bunn

Economic Consequences of Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 J. Szlávik and M. Füle

Technology Assessment and Sustainable Development: Information Society and Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 G. Banse

China’s Technology Policies Related to Sustainable Environment . . . . . . . . . . . 93 F. Chunliang

Mexico’s Sustainable Development: Is it Possible, an Alternative Scenario? . . 101 M. T. Uribe

On Sustainability Assessment of Emerging Radical Innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 I. Hronszky

Learning, Teaching and Implementing: What is Sustainability? . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 C. J. Fausnaugh

Sustainability and Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 V. K. Sharma

Sustainable Water Supplies: Reducing the Organic Matter Content of Potable Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 M. Sohn

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SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES

Overview—Sustainable Communities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 G. L. Nelson

Reduced Impact Development Practices at “Restoration” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 P. H. Jones, B. C. Larson, and M. W. Clark

Sustainable Design and Renewable Energy Concepts in Practice . . . . . . . . . . . 162 L. Maxwell

America’s First Eco-Sustainable City: Destiny, FL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 R. Gatewood

Resilient Communities: From Sustainable to Secure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 C. R. Bragdon

Emergency Power for Critical Items . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 W. R. Young Jr.

Surf Tourism, Artificial Surfing Reefs, and Environmental Sustainability . . . . 207 M. H. Slotkin, K. Chambliss, A. R. Vamosi, and C. Lindo

Energy and Environment in Florida—A Voter Survey in 2007 and 2009 . . . . 221 G. L. Nelson

Afterword: Experts from Around the World See Water as Issue . . . . . . . . . . . 227 K. Datzman

Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

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INTRODUCTION Gordon Nelson Dean, College of Science, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901,(321) 674-7260, fax (321) 674-8864, [email protected], http://cos.fit.edu

This volume is the sixth in a series based on workshops that have been organized as an International Forum on Sustainable Technological Development in a Globalizing World. A brief discussion about the origin of the Forum is in order. Two universities, Florida Institute of Technology (Florida Tech) located in Melbourne, Florida, and the Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BME) have cooperated together beginning in 2001, supported by a U.S. State Department CUAP Grant for 3 years in the field of environmental protection and environmentally sustainable technologies (environmental studies). The Department of Innovation Studies and History of Technology at BME also had long periods of cooperation with the Institute of Technology Assessment and Systems Research at the Research Center of Karlsruhe (ITAS/Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany), with the University of Basque Country, and with the former head of the Research Evaluation Unit of DG Research of the European Committee, Dr. Gilbert Fayl, (he also became foreign secretary of the European Academy of Sciences and the Arts). When BME and Florida Tech personnel met, in June 2002, in the beautiful small Hungarian town of Eger to conduct a ‘Sustainable Tourismus’ workshop, Professors Gerhard Banse (ITAS) and Imre Hronszky (BME) explained their idea to Professors Gordon Nelson (Florida Tech) and Nicanor Ursua (University of Basque Country) to initiate and develop a process to provide for a (loose) organizational forum for discussing how technological development can be made sustainable. It was decided that these institutions would try to develop and realize an annual international workshop devoted to this goal. Professor Imre Hronszky, Vice-President, and Mr. Peter Gresiczki, Secretary General of the Hungarian UNESCO Commission promised that the Hungarian UNESCO Commission would also do its best to support the Forum.

SUSTAINABILITY IDEAS & TOPICS Three main ideas for a forum were put into focus. One was that a continuous discourse between European and US institutes could make the discourse truly transAtlantic. To this was added the perspective of UNESCO, and through this the thought that the views and interests of less developed countries should also be represented. It was also agreed that a continuous effort should be made so that the workshops would be multi and transdisciplinary as far as possible and would represent different research and participant perspectives, including not only scientific researchers but also

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students, representatives of companies, governments, and NGOs. The topic for the first year was chosen to be: Rationality in an Uncertain World, for the second year International Sustainability, and for the third a look at the social visions around socalled ‘Converging Technologies’, based on recent and expected developments of the nanotech, biotech, infotech and cognitive sciences.

MEETING LOGISTICS AND FIRST FORUM Based on the invaluable importance of trans-Atlantic discussion, the initiators decided on trying to realize yearly workshops alternately in Florida and in Europe. So, the first Forum was held in Budapest, with BME as the local organizer in December, 2003. The second Forum was realized in February, 2005, in a modified form in Melbourne, Florida, at Florida Tech, and a third was held at BME in Budapest in December, 2005. The first workshop was organized by Imre Hronszky and Gerhard Banse with thirty participants from 13 countries and 3 continents. They were mostly professors in their specialty, but also students and governmental specialists, including the EC. Natural science, technology, social science and humanities were represented in the presentations. The 2003 Workshop was opened by the Pro-Rector for Education at BME, later Rector of the same university, the Secretary General of the Hungarian Academy of Science, and representatives of the Hungarian UNESCO Commission, of Florida Tech and of ITAS/Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The introductory presentation was given by Armin Grunwald (ITAS/Karlsruhe). The workshop was organized into 5 sessions: • • • • •

Rationality in an Uncertain World Sustainable Technological Innovation in a Changing Social Environment Politics of Technology in a Globalising World Conclusions for Policy Making Conclusions for Higher Education

SECOND FORUM The second Forum held February 21-23, 2005, on the campus of Florida Tech was entitled “Sustainability’s New Age, Preservation & Planning (SNAP)”. Sustainability means different things to different people. How do we know that an activity or product is truly sustainable and for how long? Sustainability assessment requires a detailed factual basis, i.e., a comprehensive scientific foundation. The Forum’s annual mission encompasses the humanities, social sciences, sustainable development, economics, environmental sciences as well as legal and policy aspects as they broadly intersect with the theme of environmental studies. The February, 2005 meeting focused on introducing European colleagues to a typical US understanding of sustainability problems in the context of the environmental issues, science drivers and practices used in Florida – where rapid development and one of the world’s largest tourism industries impact a particularly

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sensitive environment. The meeting explored ways such strategies could be useful in establishing sustainable economic development in the emerging countries of Europe. Available funding provided travel expenses for ten, non-US participants with critical expertise from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Romania, the United Kingdom and the Ukraine. The meeting brought together both environmental and social sciences, involving experts (and graduate students) in the fields of Biology, Business Management, Chemistry, Ecology, Economics, Engineering, Policy Making, Politics, Science Education, etc. The meeting opened with a historical overview of Florida, given that Florida will be celebrating the 500th anniversary of Ponce De Leon’s landing near present-day Melbourne in 1513. The five Forum sessions were: • Planning for Sustainability in East Central Florida: Contributions, Perspectives, Issues and Projects • Our Florida-Hungary Ecotourism Exchange: What Did We Know? What Did We Learn? Where Do We Go From Here? • A Sustained Safe Environment • Sustainability From A Central European Perspective • Role of Iron In The Environment: International Collaboration Keynote speakers were Dr. William F. Carroll, President of the American Chemical Society, Dr. William F. Koch, Deputy Director of the Chemical Science & Technology Laboratory at the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) and Dr. Duane DeFreese, Vice President of Florida Research at the Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute.

THIRD FORUM The Third Forum held in Budapest in December, 2005, concerned the convergence characteristics of typical technological developments of today and concentrated on the following elements: 1. It provided overviews of what happened as converging technological developments in ICT, information and communications technology occurred. 2. Brought forward cases of how technologies were developed and utilized for such important issues as environmental problems. 3. Provided a systematic assessment of the utopias and fictions around nanotech and converging technologies. 4. It gave an overview of research in some countries from which we know less in that respect, China, Mexico and the Ukraine. 5. It gave an overview of research supported at NSF (National Science Foundation – USA), discussed the 6th Framework program (EC), and efforts by UNESCO to focus on the possible social impacts of nanotechnology. 6. Finally, it closed with a discussion dealing with ethical problems in the field.

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It was one of the goals for the Forum that a follow-on book be published. That book would not be a proceedings, but would capture the flavor of the Forum and move beyond it. As mentioned at the beginning of this Introduction, the workshops were organized in the framework of a Forum on Sustainable Technological Development in a Globalizing World. The materials of the first Forum were published by Edition Sigma, Berlin, in 2005. Its title was “Rationality in an Uncertain World.” The second workshop was published in a series funded for the yearly reports of the cooperation of Florida Tech and BME/Budapest with the title, “Environmental Studies: Implications for Sustainability”, (eds.: Gordon Nelson and Imre Hronszky), Arisztotelesz Publishing Company, Budapest, 2005. It is also available on Florida Tech’s website at http://cos.fit.edu/documents/deanbook/Yearbook_2005_end.pdf. Materials from the third workshop were published in late 2007 by Edition Sigma, Berlin. Its title is “Assessing Societal Implications of Converging Technological Development”.

FOURTH FORUM The fourth international, interdisciplinary forum, “Sustainable Pathways: New Research and Practices” was held on the Florida Tech campus in Melbourne, Florida, on March 6-7, 2007. The forum was a collaborative effort of the Florida Tech College of Business and the College of Science, with active involvement by BME/Budapest. The forum took a holistic approach for the 100 attendees (coming from as far away as the Philippines), looking at sustainability issues from business, science and sociopolitical viewpoints. It was designed to appeal to a varied audience and offered the latest academic research and perspectives for practitioners and public policy makers. The forum began on March 6 with a look at developments in ecotourism. Among the speakers were Ken Lindeman of Environmental Defense, who presented “Converging the Disciplines of Coastal Tourism and Coastal Management”. Noted Florida Tech biologist Mark B. Bush focused on “Sustainability and Tropical Resources”. Isabella Bunn of Oxford University focused on “Corporate Social Responsibility”. There was also an ecotourism practitioner’s forum. Participants included Keith Winston of the Brevard Zoo and Laurilee Thompson of the Space Coast Birding and Wildlife Festival. Former Florida Governor, Bob Martinez, passionate about sustainability in public policy, was the evening keynote speaker. The final day of the forum offered a panel discussion on smart growth and regional planning, coordinated by Brevard County Commissioner, Sue Carlson. Other sessions included “Sustainability, Technology and Innovation,” and “Renewable Energy,” led by speakers and panelists from Florida Tech, BME and the European Commission. Duane E. DeFreese, vice president of Florida Research at Hubbs- SeaWorld Research Institute, gave the luncheon keynote address on “Sustainability of Ocean Resources”. The session on “Renewable Energy,” chaired by Frank Leslie, looked at fossil fuel depletion, the status of Florida renewable energy approaches, a solar-hydrogen airport demonstration site, biofuel efforts at Florida Tech, wave energy in the Indian River Lagoon, and European renewable energy directions. A book was published with the title “An International Forum on Sustainability,” (eds. Gordon Nelson and Imre Hronszky) Arisztotelesz Publishing Company, Budapest, 2008. It is also available on Florida Tech’s website at

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http://cos.fit.edu/documents/BOOK%20FINAL%20RECD%207-172008%20Forum%20on%20sustainability_changed_2008.pdf. The book and its 16 chapters were intended to capture the essence of the Fourth Forum. In the first section, Stone and Von Schomberg capture the concepts behind sustainability. In the second section, papers look at the land and sea and their use through tourism. The third section looks at Corporate Social Responsibility from its concepts to specific examples in Europe. The fourth section on Smart Growth discusses how “green considerations” can be incorporated into regional planning. Section five overviews renewable energy, from the general to a specific wave energy demonstration project in the Indian River Lagoon. The afterward written by Hronszky, Fésüs and Choi discusses the importance of forecasting, and roadmapping which provided a preview to the Fifth Forum, which was held in Budapest in December, 2007.

FIFTH FORUM The Fifth Workshop entitled “Foresight, Roadmapping and Governance – Forum on Sustainable Technological Development in a Globalizing World” was held at BME in Budapest, December 7-8, 2007. Sponsors were BME, Florida Tech, ITAS, and the Hungarian National Commission for UNESCO. There were 18 invited participants. There were 13 papers presented. The 2007 Workshop concentrated on problems of relations of foresight, roadmapping, and governance of forefront technological development; methodological problems were concentrated upon. These included how trends solidify when some players have “overweight” in the dynamics, what the possible effects will be and how ethical assessment may help foresight and governance. The papers presented were as follows: • Gerhard Banse (FZK/ITAS) Remarks on Future Thinking • Fan Chunliang (ChAS/Beijing) China’s Technology Foresight Exercise and its Future Development • Attila Havas (HAS/Budapest) Governing Policy Processes and Foresight: Potential Contributions and Inherent Tensions • Eva Hideg (Corvinus University/Budpest) A Contribution of Technology Foresight to the Fulfilment of Participatory Democracy • Imre Hronszky – Laszlo Varkonyi – Agnes Fesus (BME/Budapest) Foresight, Expectations, Prognostic or Normative Understanding of Roadmapping or What Else? • Noela Invernizzi (Brazil/Univeristy Parana/Curitiba) Visions of Brazilian Scientists on Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies • Klaus Kornwachs (BTU Cottbus) Convergence and Selfreference as Limitations to Ubicomp • Gordon Nelson (Florida Tech/USA)

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Adequate Forecasting Scenarios • Erzsebet Novaky – Eva Hideg (Corvinus University/Budapest) Methodological Experience of the Hungarian Foresight Activities • Hans-Joachim Petsche (University of Potsdam) “It’s All Coming Together Now…” Converging Networks and the Network of Convergence • Michael Rader (FZK/ITAS) Prospective Technology Analysis for EU Level Governance of Research and Technological Development – Challenges, Problems and Possible Solutions • Virender Sharma (Florida Tech/USA) Foresighting of the Future of the Ferrates Chemistry • Medardo Tapia (UNAM/Mexico City/Mexico) Ethics of a Science and Technology-Based Development in Mexico and Latin America A book to be published by Edition Sigma, Berlin is in the final stages of preparation.

SIXTH FORUM The 6th International Sustainability Forum was entitled “Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon” and was held on the Florida Tech campus March 3-4, 2009. As defined at a 1987 United Nations conference, sustainability is “Meeting present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.” This ambitious and critical goal is an enormous global challenge. Survival of the planet as we know it may be at stake. To share knowledge and demonstrate what’s happening in this area, Florida Tech’s College of Science and College of Business hosted the sixth international sustainability forum with the university’s partner BME. The conference was a showcase of Florida Tech’s involvement as a global player in sustainability. Its focus was on practical solutions to emerging sustainability issues from business, science and social-political viewpoints. It was designed to appeal to a varied audience and to offer the latest academic research and perspectives for practitioners and policymakers. With 175 registered for lectures (some 30 in number, with presenters from 7 countries), it was standing room only for some forum sessions. Participants filled the Hartley Room to hear keynote presenter Michael Sole ’86, Secretary of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. He spoke on “climate change, the most significant challenge of our lifetime,” and related it to what’s happening in Florida. Sole discussed the Sunshine State’s sustainability issues and how the state government has risen to meet the challenges. He has also been involved in efforts to, among other things, increase energy efficiency in buildings, reduce greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles and increase the production and availability of renewable transportation fuels. “Both our economy and our way of life depend on our ability to preserve and maintain a healthy and sustainable marine and terrestrial ecosystem for Florida’s future generations,” he said. “The economy is always a factor in the ability to attain sustainability. Where resources are few and people are poor, it’s difficult to make the necessary investments. The need for sustainability is real; the question is can or will people pay for it?”

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More than a dozen Florida Tech researchers presented their sustainability research. They presented their work on such issues as abrupt climate change; climate change and coral reefs; predicting climate in Florida; sustainable tourism; economic drivers of sustainability; opportunities in reclaimed asphalt pavement; and the legal and policy developments of the United Nations on climate change. From the conference came three keys to sustainability. The first is that everyone must have clean water. There can’t be good health without it and we have to figure out how to make that happen. Second, sustainability is a global issue because everyone on the planet is affected by the decisions of individual countries. Third, sustainability involves new technology. We need to use it correctly and cost-effectively. Summing up a major conclusion from the forum is that you can have the best environmental science, but it’s of no use unless you have the proper economic and political climate. This book captures the essence of and follows on to the 2009 Forum. The seventh Forum is scheduled to be held in June 2010 in Berlin, and will focus on the impact of culture on sustainability. The Institute for Technology Assessment (ITAS) in Karlsruhe, Germany will host the event. This forum will involve cultural personalities. What we value as a country, in our culture, is what we want to protect. What is sustainable is only what we value.

A FINAL WORD We still should mention UNESCO headquarters in Paris. They have given moral support to all workshops of the Forum and generous financial support to the European workshops, which made possible (aside from the support of BME, ITAS/Karlsruhe, and Florida Tech) that the workshops could be developed into a truly international meeting. Support by UNESCO helps to draw clear attention to many of the issues we try to discuss. .

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS SUSTAINABILITY 2009: THE NEXT HORIZON Conference Organizer & Editorial Coordinator Linda Ward (Executive Assistant to the Dean, College of Science, Florida Tech) Organizing Committee Rich Aronson (Head, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Tech) Cliff Bragdon (Dean, University College, Florida Tech) Mark Bush (Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Tech) Sue Carlson (Brevard County Commissioner, 1998-2006) Tristan Fiedler (Asst VP for Corporate & Foundation Relations, Florida Tech) Imre Hronszky (Professor, Budapest University for Technology & Economics) Frank Leslie (Adjunct Professor, Dept of Marine & Environmental Sys, Florida Tech) Gordon L. Nelson (Dean, College of Science, Florida Tech) Michael Slotkin (Associate Professor, College of Business, Florida Tech) Alex Vamosi (Associate Dean, Associate Prof, College of Business, Florida Tech) Michelle Verkooy (Development Associate, College of Science, Florida Tech) Linda Ward (Executive Assistant to the Dean, College of Science, Florida Tech)

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Overview - Climate Change and Adaptation Richard B. Aronson Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd., Melbourne, FL 32901, (321) 674-8034, [email protected] Abstract. Climate change poses a grave threat to sustainability. The first section of Sustainability2009: The Next Horizon, therefore, is devoted to Climate Change and Adaptation. Contributions focus on the historical consequences of climate change for human societies, as well as the effects of current climate change on sea level, lightning intensity, fire, the El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and hurricane intensity. Chapters on fisheries and coral reefs highlight the cascading effects climatic warming, rising sea level, and ocean acidification. Adaptation to climate change and its consequences will be necessary to buy time for mitigation and reversal of the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions. Keywords: Amazonia, climate change, coral reefs, ENSO, fire, fisheries, Florida, hurricanes, lightning, sea-level rise, sustainability. PACS: 92.10.am, 92.10.Sx, 92.20.jm, 92.20.jp, 92.20.jq, 92.30.-m, 92.60.-e, 92.70.-j.

SUMMARY Climate change, forced by the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, poses a grave threat and a daunting challenge to maintaining a sustainable planet. Changes in temperature, rainfall, oceanic pH, and the dynamics of fire are already altering the geographic ranges of species, patterns of land use, and the epidemiology of infectious diseases. All of these problems are exacerbated by the interactions of climate change with other human activities, including pollution and nutrient loading, deforestation and biomass burning, coastal development, overexploitation of living resources, and biotic invasions promoted by the globalization of travel and commerce. We have no choice but to adapt to committed climate change while we work toward mitigation and, hopefully, reversal of the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions. It is appropriate, therefore, that Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon opens with a section titled Climate Change and Adaptation. The contributions focus on the science of global change, as well as the implications of that science for ecosystem function and the human condition. The overarching goal of these papers is to confront the challenges of managing for sustainability under conditions of rapidly and unpredictably changing climate. Mark B. Bush begins with “Expect the Unexpected: A Paleoecological View of Rapid Climate Change.” A key message of Bush’s contribution is that the nonlinear dynamics of physical and biological responses to climate change compound the uncertainties associated with climatic projections. These uncertainties cast doubt on our ability to predict what life will be like over the next several centuries. For example, a decline in rainfall over the Yucatán Peninsula in the late 9th to early 10th CP1157, Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon, edited by G. L. Nelson and I. Hronszky

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centuries CE, driven by shifting patterns of global climate, likely led to the abrupt collapse of the Classic Maya civilization [1]. Climatic cooling in the North Atlantic during the Little Ice Age doomed the Viking settlements in Greenland in the 14th century [2]. Bush argues persuasively that Amazonia faces a future dominated by drought and fire, as global warming and agricultural conversion accelerate. The new conditions will drastically alter the ecological and evolutionary landscape of the Amazonian biota, as well as the lives of the people who depend on this vast and magnificent feature of our natural heritage. Accelerating sea-level rise is a critical concern for all coastal ecosystems and the human populations that depend on them. Randall Parkinson’s presentation, “Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective,” makes it abundantly clear that adaptive thinking must be incorporated into the the planning process for coastal communities in Florida and elsewhere. The widely accepted projection of a rise of 30–70 cm (1–2 feet) this century is almost certainly an underestimate considering the rapid melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Even if sea level rises only 30–70 cm, however, the consequences for coastal regions will be profound. Rising seas will flood and erode beaches, marshes, and other coastal ecosystems. These ecosystems provide protection from storm damage, filtration of terrigenous runoff, and nursery habitat for the target species of commercially important fisheries. Coastal property is becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding and erosion, and saltwater is increasingly intruding into aquifers already strained from overuse. Parkinson envisions a two-pronged approach to adapting to sea-level rise. Coastal engineering will be necessary to address short-term exigencies, but the long-term response will likely have to be human retreat, or “managed withdrawal,” from coastal settings. Climatic warming could increase the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events, further endangering human lives and property. “Lightning Physics and the Study of Climate Change and Sustainability,” by Joseph R. Dwyer and Hamid K. Rassoul, summarizes current knowledge of the physics of lightning. In the U.S., lightning causes annual losses estimated at $4–5 billion [3]. What we know about lightning formation relies on a detailed understanding of cloud physics. This is a field of active investigation, including the use of small-scale rocketry to induce lightning strikes for study purposes. Preliminary data suggest that the increased convective activity and intensifying sea breezes associated with a warming climate could increase the frequency of lightning strikes. Drying conditions in many areas will likely act in combination with increased lightning to increase the frequency of forest fires. Furthermore, lightning is unevenly distributed and hotspots appear to be climatically controlled. Increased lightning activity and a shifting distribution of strikes could have major implications for forestry, power supplies and other economic activities, as well as human safety. In the long term, climatic trends could lead to a quasi-permanent El Niño state. In Florida, El Niño conditions are characterized by anomalously high winter precipitation. According to Steven M. Lazarus in “Florida’s Climate: Past, Present, and Future,” the El Niño phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) promotes the growth of winter vegetation. By increasing the availability of dry fuel during the spring and early summer, frequent El Niño conditions could increase the severity of


the fire season. Florida’s wetlands have been drained extensively, exacerbating the potential for fire. Increased strength of (possibly fewer) hurricanes striking Florida is another possible outcome of climate change. More intense hurricanes would of course increase wind damage, adding fuel to the fire, so to speak. The storm surges associated with hurricanes will also act synergistically with sea-level rise to increase flooding. This prediction runs counter to the idea of quasi-permanent El Niño conditions, which should suppress hurricanes, highlighting the large uncertainties inherent in even the most up-to-date coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The effects of climate change will increase pressure on biotic resources that are already affected by local anthropogenic stresses, according to Jonathan Shenker’s “Effects of Climate Change on Fishery Species in Florida.” Rising sea level likely will have a deleterious effect on Florida’s seagrass beds, which serve as Essential Nursery Habitat for commercially important fish species. On the other hand, mangroves could expand in the Everglades, which would increase nursery habitat for marine fish at the expense of nursery habitat for freshwater fish. These complexities of causality in the response of fisheries remind us to expect the unexpected: the future will be full of surprises, many of which doubtless will be unpleasant. Finally, coral reefs are receiving a great deal of attention in the context of climate change, because they are highly sensitive to warming, rising, acidifying seas. Richard B. Aronson and William F. Precht focus on reef dynamics at multiple hierarchical levels in “Sustaining Ecosystem Services in the Global Coral Reef Crisis.” A reefcoral is a symbiosis between the cnidarian host—a colonial animal related to sea anemones—and a population of unicellular dinoflagellate algae—that is, plants— living inside the tissues of the host. Through photosynthesis the algal symbionts provide the coral animal with most or all of its energetic needs, and the symbionts utilize the coral’s waste products for their own growth and reproduction. The mutually beneficial relationship between corals and their symbionts has allowed them to thrive together in nutrient-poor, tropical marine environments, where they have built reef frameworks of geological significance for millions of years. Recently, however, the mutualistic relationship has become dysfunctional as sea temperatures have increased. Disruption of the symbiosis at high temperatures, aggravated by high levels of solar irradiance, is increasingly leading to coral bleaching, in which the coral host expels the algae and pales in color. Bleaching stunts the growth, reproduction, and frameworkbuilding capacity of corals. Moreover, some infectious coral diseases appear linked to rising sea temperatures, which increase the virulence of bacterial pathogens and compromise the immune system of the coral host. Climatic projections indicate that at current greenhouse-gas concentrations we are already committed to “harmfully frequent” temperature-induced bleaching on more than 50% of coral reefs worldwide by 2080 [4]. Aronson and Precht discuss the implications of deteriorating coral populations for the ecosystem services that reefs provide. Worldwide, reefs provide food for hundreds of millions of people, generate tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of income annually through non-extractive activities, protect tropical shorelines from erosion, and serve as the repository of a vast array of biological compounds with enormous pharmaceutical potential. Efforts by some scientists to sound the alarm erroneously


promoted overfishing as the primary evil, virtually to the exclusion of other factors. This marketing strategy deflected attention from a multitude of more important causes, retarded scientific discovery, and blurred the distinction between science and advocacy. The broad policy implication for sustainable coral reefs is that we must take local management actions to mitigate and reverse the effects of nutrient loading, overfishing, and other anthropogenic effects that operate on small geographic scales, while simultaneously working at the highest levels of international governance to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and the global impacts of climate change. Adapting to climate change forces us to confront a myriad of interacting physical and biological effects. To sustain the human condition in a desirable state we must sustain the function of the Biosphere. This is the most challenging enterprise on which humanity has ever collectively embarked. If we are to succeed, political differences and short-term expedience must take a back seat to global cooperation. The alternative is unmitigated, irreversible disaster for ourselves and life as we know it.

REFERENCES 1. H. Pringle, Science, 324, 454-456 (2009). 2. H. Pringle, Science, 275, 924-926 (1997). 3. http://www.lightningsafety.com/nlsi_lhm/ExplosiveFacilities.html, accessed May 28, 2009. 4. S. D. Donner, PLoS ONE, 4, e5712 (2009).


Expect The Unexpected: A Paleoecological View Of Rapid Climate Change Mark Bush Abstract. Global climates are changing at an unprecedented rate. The projections upon which many decisions are being made are couched in uncertainty, but an area that is seldom explored is that climate change is not a linear process. As climate passes a tipping points conditions can flip to a new, perhaps unpredictable, semi-stable state. Paleoclimate records indicate that past climate change has regularly featured non-linear responses due to positive feedback mechanisms that lead to a tipping point from which a new path is initiated. While such change has served to bound past climate change, our enrichment of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, unparalleled in our present continental configuration, is leading us into novel territory. Warmer and drier systems are widely projected, and in key areas such as Amazonia, the result will be increasing flammability of a non-fire adapted system. Drought-induced fires could presage the 6th great extinction event within the present generation. Keywords: Climate Change, El Niño, Amazon Basin, Fire Risk PACS: 87.23n, 89.60Gg, 89.60.Ec, 92.70.Aa, 92.70.Mn

CLIMATE UNCERTAINTIES Very few scientists researching climate change doubt that the late 20th Century marked a major departure from what might be considered to be ‘natural’ climate oscillations. The imprimatur of anthropogenic change was unmistakable in phenomena, such as sea-surface temperature increase, sea-level rise, glacial melt back and longer growing seasons. Given that climates are changing, the critical questions now facing us are: How much? How fast? And when? The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[1] offers projections that range from c. 1 oC to 5 oC of warming in the next century (Fig. 1). The IPCC, like many government reports, is a consensus effort that avoids controversy and the range of possible outcomes largely reflects social uncertainty in terms of global population growth, population development and carbon release. If global population levels off at less than 12 billion we may avoid some of the worst projected effects. Similarly if the developing economies of China, India and Brazil all adopted green technology, rather than cheap, energy-inefficient processes then atmospheric carbon concentrations may be limited closer to 480 ppm (compared with 388 ppm today) rather than rising to 750 ppm by the end of the 21st Century[1]. Combinations of these factors lowering rates of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere will promote smaller climatic impacts. Sure enough, these social uncertainties will be key components of our climatic future. However, one key area of uncertainty is largely avoided by the IPCC and that is the possibility of non-linear climate change. In the report all trend lines are shown gradually edging upward. While such models make the charts relatively easy to read and explain to decision-makers, they may be far from reality. CP1157, Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon, edited by G. L. Nelson and I. Hronszky


FIGURE 1. Projections of possible temperature change by 2100 from the IPCC (2007) report.

To misquote James Hutton “if the past is the key to the future” then it is apparent that linearity and climate change are unfamiliar bedfellows. By looking to past climates we can learn a lot about how climates change, and how those changes are manifested, a branch of science called paleoclimatology. In the past decade or so there has been an explosion of data detailing paleoclimate change, and a recurrent theme is that Earth’s climate system lurches from one tipping point to another[2]. To explain this observation let us look at a long climate record from Greenland. The isotopic composition of bubbles of gas trapped in the ice of Greenland provides a record of temperature change for the last 100,000 years[3]. When this record was first published it shook the scientific community, but many substantiating records are now available from ocean and lake sediment cores, and even from stalagmites. The Greenland data show rapid climate oscillations that took place during the last ice age. While the precise mechanism causing these events is still being researched, the pattern is very clear. Overall, the data set has an upper bound and a lower bound that is regularly reached, but not exceeded. Such responses are strongly indicative of a positivefeedback mechanism working until a tipping point is reached. At that time a negativefeedback mechanism can reverse the trend or the pattern may take off in a new direction until a second tipping point is reached, one that initiates a return close to the initial state. In the Greenland ice core record there is a general pattern that repeats every few thousand years of a rapid rise in temperature, followed by a stair step decline over several thousand years, prior to (sometimes) a sudden drop in temperature that suddenly reverse to renew the cycle. These cycles are known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and were regular features of the last ice age[4,5]. The most important part of these events is the sudden reversals of temperature at the bottom and top of their


ranges. Because the ice cores can be dated very precisely, we know that the c. 5 oC warming that initiated the cycle occurred in about 10 years. That is a phenomenally fast climate change in which the climate of Washington DC would switch to that of Atlanta in 10 years, or Moscow for that of Berlin. It is hard to conceive how we would respond to that degree of climate change.

FIGURE 2. A 100,000-year record of temperature change from Greenland.

The upper panel shows the rapid swings of temperature that took place during the last ice age and the comparative stability of the present interglacial (the last 10,000 years). The bottom panel is an enlargement showing the rapid cooling and warming events that began and ended each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle[3]. What caused these massive perturbations and why did they stop at the end of the last ice-age? These questions are critical to understanding Earth’s climate and in recent years our grasp of the events, while not complete, has improved. The explanation centers on a giant redistribution of planetary heat that happens in the oceans. Technically this is termed the meridional overturning circulation, but it can be thought of as the ocean conveyor belt[6]. The conveyor belt starts with very cold, salty water sinking to the bed of the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Greenland (Fig. 3). Like


a giant fire hose that ‘North Atlantic Deep Water ‘ shoots south to joining the circumpolar current that runs around Antarctica. Water leaves the circumpolar current and gradually rises as it flows into the Indian Ocean. All the while surface water evaporates from the warm tropical ocean, increasing the concentration of salt in the surface water. the warmed, increasingly salty water flows through the tropical Atlantic into the Caribbean. Leaving the Caribbean the surface water, which we know as the Gulf Stream, flows northeast across the Atlantic, giving up its heat along the way and warming northwestern Europe. By the time it reaches Greenland it is back to being very cold and salty and it sinks, restarting the cycle. A molecule of water takes about 1000 years to make this looping passage, but the conveyor can be altered much faster than that if the downwelling water off Greenland is made less salty.

FIGURE 3. Schematic diagram of the Meridional overturning circulation or ‘ocean conveyor’ Lighter shades represent warm surface water.

Sudden warmings taking place within the ice age weakened the conveyor as deluges of meltwater and icebergs periodically burst out from the ice mass that covered North America[7]. This deluge of freshwater into the North Atlantic induced three major impacts on the conveyor. First the center of downwelling shifted south of the Faeroe Ridge, which meant that the sinking water was not quite as cold. Second the slight warming caused less downwelling so there was less heat being circulated and third the coldwater flow in the Atlantic lifted off the bed and ran in mid water. The physical processes that led to these events are complex, but at the risk of oversimplification and masking uncertainty I will summarize them. As the great ice mass that covered the northern half of North America expanded it grew taller, reaching about 3 km in height at its apogee. It was so high, that it interfered with the westerly flow of the polar jet stream, which was split with one limb flowing to the north and another to the south of the ice dome[8,9]. The effect of this modification was to intensify cooling and accelerate ice growth in a positive feedback mechanism. As that ice grew so the cooling of the oceans progressed and this strengthened the


conveyor circulation. Ice accumulation accelerated to a critical point. For unknown reasons about every 2000 to 7000 years it seems probable that this ice dome collapsed (perhaps due to geothermal heat melting out its base), resulting in a sudden reunification of the polar jet and a burst of warming. The warming and ice mass collapse shot icebergs into the north Atlantic causing either a complete shutdown of the conveyor for a few centuries or a substantial weakening. This temperature oscillation from rapid cooling to rapid warming is the thermal signature initiating the D-O cycle. But the warming was unsustainable once the initial meltwater effects had gone and the conveyor resumed a more normal mode of operation. As the Gulf Stream formed again, the warm surface water in the North Atlantic promoted rainfall over high-latitude regions gradually feeding more moisture onto the ice mass causing it to grow. After several thousand years the ice dome once again split the polar jet and the cycle was complete. If warmings were so easily reversed why has the present trend caused so much disquiet? The answer to that can be seen by taking a further step back from the data so that we can see the climate oscillations of the last 420,000 years (Fig. 4). Again based on bubbles of air trapped in ice, a record from Antarctica provides independent estimates for CO2 , methane (CH4) and temperature[10]. The coming and going of ice ages can be seen to be somewhat like a D-O cycle but on a longer time scale. The features are similar, a rapid warming entering an interglacial (such as the one we live in today) followed by a stair step cooling down into an ice age and a nadir of temperature that is quickly followed by a warming. Note again the existence of upper and lower bounds on temperature and also on the greenhouse gases CO2 and methane. There is scientific consensus that changes in CO2 and CH4 concentrations initiate changes in temperature[1]. What we see in the last century is a huge increase in CO2 and CH4 that breaks free from the feedbacks that have bounded it during the last several million years. The ice records provide us with a precise measure of CO2 content in pre-industrial air, i.e. the air that George Washington or Napolean Bonaparte inhaled was about 280 ppm CO2 . Our annual rate of enrichment is accelerating but is currently adding about 6 ppm per year to this total. Concentrations of 400 ppm will probably be reached c. 2012[1]. The key point common to both D-O events and glacial-interglacial cycles was that prehistoric climate changes have been bounded by feedback mechanisms, which constrained total climate variability. Through fossil fuel use we have now pushed concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases outside this envelope. The scale of enrichment (about 100 ppm additional CO2 compared with pre-industrial levels) is about the same magnitude as the increase associated with the climate change going from peak cooling to peak warming of one of the last five interglacials (90-100 ppm). Each of those warmings resulted in a global increase in temperature of c. 9 oC spread over about 2000.


FIGURE 4. A 420,000-year history of changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations from the Vostok icecore record, Antarctica. Prior to the industrial revolution, atmospheric CO2 concentrations had oscillated between an upper bound of c. 280-290 ppm and a lower bound of c. 180 ppm. Modern CO2 concentrations elevated by burning fossil fuels lie at c. 388 ppm[10] years. In our case we have forced the CO2 system so rapidly that temperature has yet to catch up.

HOW MIGHT NON-LINEAR CLIMATE RESPONSES BE MANIFESTED? There are many potential scenarios and I will discuss two of them: 1) a scenario in which the ocean circulation is altered by melting ice; and 2) the development of a permanent El Niño state in the tropical Atlantic. I will then close with some thoughts on climate, fire, and biodiversity.

The “Day After Tomorrow” In 2004, a Hollywood epic ‘The Day after Tomorrow’ depicted what would happen if rapidly melting ice[11] caps caused a shutdown of the North Atlantic Deep Water. The scenario of an almost instant ice age caught the attention of the public and government. Many dramatic choices were made over science in the movie, i.e. synchronous massive glacial expansion and rising sea-level, and viewers were persuaded of the likelihood of a shutdown of the ocean conveyor and a coming ice age, by a margin of 2:1 compared with non-watchers[12]. However, the study conducted by Columbia University of the moviegoers before and after a screening showed that in the USA attitudes had shifted away from random controls on climate and toward a system that varies within limits, until forced to a new state (an 11%


change), while almost the same percentage of viewers in Japan were influenced in the opposite direction[13]. Clearly popular media are playing an educational role, where more ‘serious’ education is failing to reach the general public. So the question is: Could continued warming induce another ice age. The answer to that is almost certainly ‘no’. Clearly, a shutdown of the ocean conveyor could throw us into a very cold time, perhaps reducing temperatures by c. 5 oC globally and causing very cold winters in northwestern Europe. However, the pattern of ice melt that we are liable to see could not generate the huge inputs of freshwater needed to accomplish a shutdown of the conveyor. The key difference between now and the last ice age is the volume of water held as ice and available for sudden discharge into the north Atlantic. During the last ice age sea level was reduced by 125 m. Think of it, the top 125 m (400’) of ocean was all held as ice (freshwater) on the land. This enormous amount of ice was dynamically building domes and being calved into the ocean as the ice mass went through its binge and purge cycles. Today’s ice masses are trivially small by comparison, and even though their melting is of great concern for sea-level rise and changes in planetary albedo, it is highly unlikely that enough ice could shoot off Greenland into the North Atlantic and cause an interruption of the conveyor belt. We have much more serious threats about which to worry.

A Permanent El Niño Event In recent years we have become familiar with the El Niño cycles that cause strong climatic variability. Our present system is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that follows a c. 3-8 year cycle of activity. During the El Niño phase of this cycle warm water ponds in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while the western Pacific cools. These events last about 12-15 months, and while the phenomenon has predictable consequences on the oceanic and atmospheric systems, what causes the sudden change in barometric pressure over the Pacific to initiate a full blown El Niño event is not known. A key prediction of some of the most influential predictive climate models is the development of a permanent El Niño by the end of this century. An El Niño raises water temperature off the coast of Peru and Ecuador by as much as 5-6 oC. This warming is not related to global warming, it is simply a change in ocean circulation that prevents cold abyssal water from upwelling along the coastline. A corresponding cooling in the western Pacific balances the global heat equation. However, as we shall see, El Niño events affect far more than Pacific marine environments. Although El Niño is the largest single cause of global inter-annual climate variability[14] it is not expressly modeled in long-term climate projections, but this does not mean that it is ignored. The current generations of global circulation models are provided with some basic information, and the more sophisticated the model the less has to be specified. The most advanced model that we have, the Hadley general Circulation Model (HADCM 3) relies only on rules of atmospheric and oceanic physics and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. It takes literally months for this model running on a supercomputer to reach an equilibrium for a specified atmospheric content (i.e. 550 or 750 ppm CO2). The output is then a ‘typical’ state in


terms of ocean surface temperatures, land temperatures and precipitation and seasonality. If the equatorial Pacific is projected to become much warmer than today while the Western Pacific is cooled this suggests an El Niño state. If that state is found to be the norm at 550 ppm and again at 750 ppm CO2 concentrations, the reasonable interpretation is that the Pacific Ocean has moved into a El Niño dominated state. Because there is no time-series to show what variation will occur from one year to the next in a realistic way, and because we do not understand the trigger that initiates changes in El Niño state, such a warming is then reported as a “permanent El Niño”. Derivative models that look at vegetation cover and carbon stocks are then based on the predicted climate pattern being sustained for tens of years. Let me make two points immediately, before critiquing the El Niño component of these models. First, these are the best approximations that we have of the future. If they are imperfect so be it, but they represent our only tool for planning for the future. Consequently, it is imperative that underfunded research groups generating such models be given the resources necessary to improve them. This research is every bit as much a matter of national security as Pentagon projects. Second, climate modelers are well aware of imperfections in their models, and as a community are very open about known inconsistencies, and are constantly seeking to improve them.

PROJECTIONS OF AN AMAZONIAN DIEBACK The consequences that might be expected from a permanent El Niño state were made clear by a modified version of the Hadley model (HadCM3LC) in which the feedbacks between the carbon stocks of the atmosphere, vegetation and soils were included[15,16]. The HadCM3LC model projected that as climates warmed this century there would be a progressive dieback of Amazonian forest, which would result in carbon stored in Amazon rainforest and soils being liberated and further enriching the atmosphere. This unwelcome feedback loop served to accelerate regional warming and drying, resulting in an 80% loss of rainforest cover and about 40% of the Amazon basin being incapable of supporting vegetation by 2100 A.D.. This scenario of a massive ‘Amazon Dieback’ results in Brazil losing all its Amazonian rainforest. As you can imagine this news caused some disquiet in Brazilian government circles, while it was received gleefully by those seeking permits to destroy Amazonia through logging, soy-bean farming and oil-palm plantations. Planners were faced with a clear dilemma: how could conservation goals be reconciled with projected climate change. Long-standing policy protects indigenous peoples and their lands in Brazilian Amazonia and large areas have also been set aside for biodiversity protection . But, if the whole forest is doomed, why attempt to save it? Such was certainly not the intended message of the climate modelers. Recent papers looking at empirical data suggest that the HADCM3 model underestimates precipitation in Amazonia under modern circumstances, and it appears to be predisposed to exaggerating drought risk[17,18]. However, there may be a more fundamental problem with the Dieback model in terms of how it builds on the depiction of a warmed Pacific. Again the past sheds some light on patterns of ENSO and the reality of such a permanent pattern of El Niño dominance. El Niño occurrence can be tracked through


historical records back to the 1600s[19,20]. But 400 years is too short a time interval to see the full potential variation in this data set. Tree-ring records push the data back about 1000 years[21], and ice core records from the Andes capture differing rates of ice accumulation extend the record about 1500 years[22,23]. Lake core and ocean sedimentary records documenting slower and faster rates of erosion associated with El Niño rains extend the data back to 15,000 years ago[24,25]. From this variety of data sources we can see that at some times (such as now) El Niño occurs relatively frequently and produces strong events. However, now is not the most active time on record, that appears to have been between c. 600-900 A.D.[26], corresponding to the Dark Ages in Europe and the heyday of Mayan culture in Central America. However, between c. 8000 and 5000 years ago ENSO was very quiescent[27], with only occasional events. It seems that ENSO does wax and wane in strength on millennial time scales, and that it can be biased toward more El Niño and fewer La Niña or vice versa. Great uncertainty lies in what causes these longer-term oscillations, ones which apparently lock us into a period of very intense activity or inactivity than can last centuries even millennia. If we look back in time to periods when climates have been warmer than modern, there are two important periods for which we have data. The first is the thermal optimum of our present interglacial which occurred about 6000 years ago, and as stated above was a time of low ENSO activity. The other was the last interglacial. About 125,000 years ago Earth was 1-2 oC warmer than today, seasonality was more extreme, and CO2 levels in the atmosphere were c. 280 ppm. Coral records from Papua New Guinea provide evidence that ENSO activity levels during this interglacial were approximately the same as now[28]. Thus in neither instance does a warmer world trigger a permanent El Niño event. We do see El Niño intensity increasing in the last half of the last century and oceans are certainly warming, but the ecological difference between intensifying ENSO and a permanent EL Niño is huge. Crudely we can think of El Niño and La Niña inducing opposite climatic patterns for a given locality, i.e. if El Niño brings drought, La Niña brings rain. Consequently if only one side of the oscillation strengthens then we are tipped toward drought or flood. If both sides intensify we have a very dynamic climate but one in which there is a compensating cycle for each extreme event. Thus a permanent El Niño would cause Amazonia to dry out, because there is no reprieve. However, if ENSO simply intensifies in both cycles (or even if La Niña were to remain constant while El Niño intensifies) the system would become more drought-prone, but there would not be the wholesale loss of forest projected by the dieback model.

FIRE RISK A key difference between the last interglacial and the present warming as it affects the New World is the presence of people. The human migration into the Americas sometime around 15,000 years ago[29,30], brought a new source of fire to the continents. Human activity and fire frequency is very closely linked, especially in areas that do not burn naturally, i.e. much of Amazonia[31]. In the 2005 megadrought


that intensified dry season drying in much of Amazonia (not ENSO related) fires sprang up in unprecedented numbers, but every one was initiated by humans[32]. The correlation between the occurrence of fire and human activity is very clear. Fires occur wherever there are roads[33,34], and as new roads penetrate Amazonia the threat of fire influencing previously unburned systems increases dramatically. The rate of agricultural expansion, especially in southern Amazonia, and proposed networks of road-building criss-crossing the basin, coupled with laissez-faire policies to fire are likely to bring about the demise of Amazonian forest by mid-century , i.e. sooner than projections of Amazonian Dieback due to climate change[32]. Fire transforms Amazonian forests. A single low intensity fire with flames 30 cm high that crawls across the forest floor kills almost all seedling and small trees[35,36]. That fire greatly increases the probability that a second fire will follow within a decade, and that second fire will be much more intense, and result in a 40% loss of biomass, and long-lasting damage to the system. A burned forest system is an entirely different habitat from an unburned one, and bearing in mind that once it burns it is likely to keep burning, a steady degradation of habitat quality ensues[17,37,38]. The organisms that require rainforest habitats cannot survive in the modified landscape. If the habitat transformation occurs over a wide enough area a massive extinction event is foreseeable. Indeed our generation could easily preside over the 6th great extinction event as Amazonia and S.E. Asian rainforests become fire-prone habitats. The climate models do not include the probability of fire. While I am skeptical about he formation of a simple permanent El Niño state, I see strong evidence of increased El Niño activity, and with that increased drought and fire risk. The expansion of Amazonian populations will be matched pixel for pixel in digital maps of the Amazon by the new presence of fire. Drought events will accelerate the process as fires set for agriculture, or by accident become runaway wildfires, engulfing tracts of previously unburned forest. Consequently, the Dieback message may be right for the wrong reason, but more importantly one version of the Dieback is inevitable, whereas the other is preventable[32]. People do not have to burn forest. Agribusiness is a major player in Amazonia, so too are international forestry enterprises, both respond to a financial bottom line. The third major group influencing Amazonian landscapes are Amazonian settlers driven by poverty. Unsurprisingly, money is at the root of forest destruction. If instead of incentivizing forest destruction through encouraging unsustainable production of ethanol for fuel (a major cause of deforestation for soy-bean and oilpalm plantations), carbon stocks were valued and paid for, i.e. monetarizing carbon sequestration, the probability of conserving Amazonia effectively would change dramatically.

CONCLUSIONS Climate change is already happening as a result of anthropogenic forcing. The projected path of that change is often shown as being relatively steady and incremental. However, history illustrates that past changes have been sudden involving positive feedback mechanisms and turning points. The most sophisticated climate model available, suggests the formation of a permanent El Niño by the end of


this century. The prospect of a permanent El Niño would be a radical departure from any state for which past El Niño records are available, and is unlikely to be true, sensu stricto. If an El Niño dominated climate is a more likely future climate pattern, the probability of a climatically-induced Amazon Dieback is greatly reduced. However, drought coupled with human-induced fire could create a Dieback sooner than that proposed for climate. This view emphasizes the importance of developing policies that would shift the economic balance away from encouraging and toward discouraging fire as a tool of land management. One such course would be in monetarizing carbon credits for long-term sequestration of carbon.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by NSF-DEB grant 0742301.

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.

IPCC, I. P. o. C. C., Climate Change 2007: Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability., IPCC, Geneva, 2007 T. Stocker, Past and future reorganizations in the climate system. Quaternary Science Reviews 19, 301-319, 2000. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences members, N. G. I. C. P., North Greenland Ice Core Project Oxygen Isotope Data., NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA, 2004. W. Dansgaard, S. J. Johnsen, H. B. Clausen, D. Dahl-Jensen, N. S. Gundestrup, C. U. Hammer, C. S. Hvidberg, J. P. Steffensen, A. E. Sveinbjörnsdottir, J. Jouzel, and G. Bond,. Evidence for a instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature 364:218-220, 1993 G. Bond, W. Showers, M. Cheseby, R. Lotti, P. Almasi, P. Demenocal, P. Priore, H. Cullen, I. Hajdas, and G. Bonani, A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates. Science 278, 1257-1266, 1997. W. S. Broecker and G. H. Denton.. The role of ocean-atmosphere reorganizations in glacial cycles. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 53, 2465-2501, 1989. W. S. Broecker,. Massive iceberg discharges as triggers for global climate change. Nature 372, 421-424, 1994. P. M. CLIMAP, The surface of the ice-age Earth. Science 191, 1131-1137, 1976. P. M. CLIMAP, Seasonal reconstruction of the Earth's surface at the last glacial maximum., Geological Society of America Map and Chart Series MC-36, 1981. J. R. Petit, J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N. I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, and J. Chappellaz, Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399, 429-436, 1999. A. Leiserowitz, The International Impact of The Day After Tomorrow. Environment 47, 43-44, 2005. A. Leiserowitz, Before and After The Day After Tomorrow: A U.S. Study of Climate Risk Perception. Environment 46, 22–37, 2004. F. Reusswig, The international impact of the Day after Tomorrow. Environment 47, 41-43, 2005. H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf. 1992. El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992. P. M.Cox, R. A. Betts, C. D. Jones, S. A. Spall, and I. J. Totterdell, Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycling feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408:184-187, 2000. P. M.Cox, R. A. Betts, M. B. Collins, J. P. Harris, C. Huntingford, and C. D. Jones,. Amazonian forest dieback under climate carbon cycle projections for the 21st Century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78:137-156, 2004.


17. M. A. Cochrane and C. P. Barber, Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon. Global Change Biology 15:601-612, 2009. 18. Y. Malhi, L. E. O. C. Arag√£o, D. Galbraith, C. Huntingford, R. Fisher, P. Zelazowski, S. Sitch, C. McSweeney, and P. Meir, Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest, 2009. 19. W. H. Quinn, V. T. Neal, and S. E. Antunez de Mayola, El Niño occurrences over the past four and a half centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research 92, 449-461, 1987. 20. L. Ortlieb and J. Macharé, Former El Niño events: records from western South America. . Global and Planetary Change 7, 181-202, 1993. 21. T. W. Swetnam and J. L. Betancourt, Temporal patterns of El Nino/Southern Oscillation — wildfire patterns in the Southwest United States, pages 259-270 in H. F. Diaz and V. M. Markgraf, editors. El Nino: historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the Southern Oscillation, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1992. 22. L. Thompson, E. Mosley-Thompson, W. Dansgaard, and P. M. Grootes, The Little Ice Age as recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical Quelccaya ice cap. Science 234, 361-364, 1986. 23. L. Thompson, G., M. E. Davis, E. Mosley-Thompson, L. P-N, K. A. Henderson, and T. A. Mashiotta, Tropical ice core records: evidence for asynchronous glaciation on Milankovitch timescales. Journal of Quaternary Science 20, 723-733, 2005. 24. D. T. Rodbell, G. O. Seltzer, D. M. Anderson, M. B. Abbott, D. B. Enfield, and J. H. Newman, An ~15,000-year record of El Niño-driven alluviation in southwestern Ecuador. Science 283, 516-520, 1999. 25. C. M. Moy, G. O. Seltzer, D. T. Rodbell, and D. M. Anderson., Variability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch. Nature 420, 162-164, 2002. 26. B. Rein, How do the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niños rank in a geological record from Peru? Quaternary International, 56-66, 2007. 27. D. H. Sandweiss, K. A. Maasch, R. L. Burger, J. B. Richardson III, H. B. Rollins, and A. Clement, Variation in Holocene El Niño frequencies: Climate records and cultural consequences in ancient Peru. Geology 29, 603-606 2001. 28. A. Tudhope, W., C. P. Chilcott, M. T. McCulloch, E. R. Cook, J. Chappell, R. M. Ellam, D. W. Lea, J. M. Lough, and G. B. Shimmield, Variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Through a Glacial-Interglacial Cycle. Science 291, 1511-1517, 2001. 29. T. D. Dillehay, Climate and human migrations. Science 298, 764-765, 2002. 30. T. D. Dillehay, C. Ramirez, M. Pino, M. B. Collins, J. Rossen, and J. D. Pino-Navarro, Monte Verde:Seaweed, Food, Medicine, and the Peopling of South America. Science 320:784-786, 2008. 31. M. B. Bush, , M. R. Silman, C. McMichael, and S. Saatchi, . Fire, climate change and biodiversity in Amazonia: a Late-Holocene perspective. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363, 1795-1802, 2008. 32. D. C. Nepstad, C. M. Stickler, B. Soares- Filho, and F. Merry, Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point. Philosophical Transactions of the Royals Society London, series B 363, 1737–1746, 2008. 33. W. F. Laurance, M. A. Cochrane, S. Bergen, P. M. Fearnside, P. Delamonica, C. Barber, S. D'Angelo, and T. Fernandes, The future of the Brazilian Amazon. Science 291, 438-439, 2001. 34. W. F. Laurance and G. B. Williamson, Positive Feedbacks among Forest Fragmentation, Drought, and Climate Change in the Amazon. Conservation Biology 15, 1529-1535, 2001. 35. M. A. Cochrane and W. F. Laurance, Fire as a large-scale edge effect in Amazonian forests. Journal of Tropical Ecology 18:311-325, 2002. 36. J. Barlow., C. A. Peres, B. O. Lagan, and T. Haugaasen, Large tree mortality and the decline of forest biomass following Amazonian wildfires. Ecology Letters 6:6-8, 2003. 37. M. A. Cochrane and M. D. Schulze, Fire as a Recurrent Event in Tropical Forests of the Eastern Amazon: Effects on Forest Structure, Biomass, and Species Composition1. Biotropica 31:2-1999. 38. D. C. Nepstad, A. Verissimo, A. Alencar, C. Nobre, E. Lima, P. Lefebvre, P. Schlesinger, C. Potter, P. Moutinho, E. Mendoza, M. Cochrane, and V. Brooks, . Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire. Nature 398, 505-508, 1999.


Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective Randall W. Parkinson RW Parkinson Consulting, Inc., 2018 Melbourne Ct., Suite 205, Melbourne, Florida 32901, USA Abstract. Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida’s coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to “managed withdrawal” programs if higher sealevel elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level. Keywords: Global Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise PACS: 89.60.-k, 92.70.Mn

INTRODUCTION Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida’s coastal and marine systems. Rising sea level will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. More extreme weather events predicted to accompany rising seas, including intense rainfall, floods, droughts, and tropical storms, will alter freshwater flow into estuaries and lagoons, exacerbate polluted runoff and water supply problems, and damage coastal habitats and property [1]. Most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and that the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures [2]. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate

CP1157, Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon, edited by G. L. Nelson and I. Hronszky


change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans.

BACKGROUND Past Sea-Level Change Geologists have documented broadly fluctuating sea level elevations of as much as 300 meters over the past 250 million years. Using isotopic data from ice cores dating back more than 400,000 years, changes in sea level have been shown to co-vary with proxies for average earth temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. This association is well demonstrated even over the broad range of values documented during the four glacial-interglacial cycles which occurred during the Late Pleistocene (Fig. 1 and 2). These cycles and the associated covariance of temperature, CO2, and sea level persisted until the Industrial Revolution (~1760 to 1830). Thereafter temperature and carbon dioxide levels have risen well beyond historical values, triggering polar and alpine glacial melting and rising sea level at rates much higher than historical records (Fig. 3). Historical tide data clearly document this acceleration and shoreline stability studies indicate the response of most North American coastlines has been moderate to severe coastal erosion (Fig. 4).

FIGURE 1. Large variations in global sea-level elevation over past 400,000 years. Reprinted from [2].


FIGURE 2. Co-variance of average earth temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over past 400,000 years. Reprinted from [3].

Forecasting Coastal Response to Future Sea-Level Rise The rate of sea-level rise began to increase at the end of the Industrial Revolution and recent studies now suggest an additional two meter rise is possible by the year 2100. How will our coastlines respond and what can we do? Successfully adapting to rising sea level requires technical information be clearly communicated to decision makers. Scientists must (1) continue to assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Planners, managers, and elected officials must have access to both science and scientists to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information.


FIGURE 3. Past, present, and future sea level elevation. Reprinted from [4].

FIGURE 4. Historical trends in North American shoreline stability. Reprinted from [2].


Forecasting how our coastlines will respond to future sea level rise can be accomplished in part using geological models. For example, based upon sedimentologic data obtained from the continental shelves of North America, geologists have been able to reconstruct the details of sea-level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as the coastal response. This information provides a conceptual framework from which to model the potential effects of sea-level rise forecasted to accompany global climate change (Table 1). Real-time investigations of the coastal zone can also be used to model the effects of sea-level rise. Detailed topographic surveys of coastal elevations can be mapped to detect changes of less than one foot using LIDAR technology. When coupled with GPS, aerial photography, and existing GIS files of land use and infrastructure, vulnerability assessments can be conducted to determine how flooding will impact a coastal municipality. For example, in a recent (2008) vulnerability assessment of Miami Beach, Peter Harlem (Florida International University) determined a 1, 2, and 3 foot rise in sea level would submerge 1%, 10%, and more than 30% of the landscape by the year 2084, respectively. Vulnerability assessments using LIDAR can be further improved upon by introducing a dynamic element so that selected areas of the landscape can evolve in the presence of ocean waves and currents; i.e., by incorporating geomorphic change associated with coastal retreat and wetland sedimentation.

ADAPTING TO RISING SEA LEVEL Given the projected rates and elevations of sea level, it is highly probable Florida coastlines will migrate landward via erosion or submergence. Adapting to these changes can be grouped into two options. TABLE 1. Data used to predict shoreline response to variable rates of sea level rise (compiled by the author using available peer reviewed publications). Rate Period Time Interval (mm/yr) Coastal response Late Pleistocene to early Holocene

20,000 - 7,000 ybp

10 to 20

Submergence, overstep, widespread shoreline retreat

mid-Holocene

7,000 to 3,000 ybp

2

Formation of coastal environments, barrier islands, shoreline retreat

late-Holocene

3,000 to present

0.1 to 0.2

Aggredation, shoreline stabilization and progradation

20th Century

1900 to 2000

2

Shoreline retreat

Recent

1994 to 2008

3.4

Shoreline retreat

Predicted

1990 to 2100

3 to 14

Shoreline retreat, submergence and overstep


The first option is shore protection that utilizes coastal engineering structures designed to protect land from inundation, erosion, flooding. I consider this to be short-term solution viable only when sea level is at lower elevations or rates of rise. This option is implemented in an attempt to (1) keep the shoreline at a fixed position using a variety of structures including seawalls, bulkheads, and revetments or (2) protect against flooding or permanent inundation using topographic obstacles like dikes or dunes. The second option towards adapting to rising sea level is managed withdrawal. This response is designed to minimize hazard potential and environmental impacts by removing or diverting development from the most vulnerable coastal areas. In contrast to the previous option, it is a more dynamic response that can be updated by real-time observations. This option is, in my opinion, a long-term solution and especially applicable to higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise. Along developed coasts it would consist of the relocation of structures, buyout programs, and rolling easements. Along undeveloped coasts the managed withdrawal option is achieved using conservation easements or environmental land acquisition programs. Where and when should these options be implemented? Most experts agree decisions regarding how best to adapt to rising sea level must be made within the next decade [5]. Thereafter, the extent and momentum of urban development will have eliminated many of the obvious retreat pathways and thereby committed us to a policy of shore protection that is both expensive and unsustainable. The best adaptation strategy should be based upon science; the continued collection of relevant data and improvement of predictive models. In addition, the construction of thematic maps (i.e., coastal vulnerability [6]) must continue. These maps identify high risk zones (i.e., shorelines prone to high rates of coastal erosion or overwash) which can form the basis for delineating a preferred response; i.e., shore protection vs. managed withdrawal. More importantly, this information must be effectively conveyed to ensure decision makers are well informed. A recent survey of management and planning documents undertaken by the author indicated reference to climate change or sea-level rise is rare (see also [1]) and that most shore protection structures or setback policies are based upon the current rate of sea-level rise [2]. At best Florida’s existing policies suggest only that these phenomena should be studied (c.f. Volusia County Comprehensive Plan website [7]).

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The cost of inaction could not be greater. A present, nearly one half of Florida’s sandy shorelines are critically eroding. The state has attempted to manage less than half of these, yet has spent more than 600 million dollars over the past four decades [8]. In a recent economic assessment by Tufts University [9], ignoring climate change and rising seas (aka the Business as Usual Strategy) would cost the State of Florida hundreds of billions of dollars over the next 50 years. The cost of inaction to our environment is perhaps even more problematic, as a modest rise of only 15 cm will trigger widespread habitat loss and the collapse of numerous commercial and recreational fisheries along the Florida coast and continental shelf [10].


While there is still uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level, comprehensive plans and associated development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 100 yrs, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. We have about another decade in which to debate the evidence of global climate change and rising sea level. Thereafter the opportunity to mitigate and adapt will be lost and the cost of indecision placed squarely on the shoulders of our children and the generations which follow.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to acknowledge Peter Harlem, Florida International University, for permission to use his Miami Beach vulnerability data.

REFERENCES 1.

Florida Coastal and Ocean Coalition, Preparing for a Sea Change in Florida – A strategy to Cope with the Impacts of Global Warming on the State’s Coastal and Marine Systems, 40 pgs (2008). 2. United States Climate Change Science Program, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, 790 pgs (2009). 3. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, “Global Warming Basics - Facts and Figures”, http://www.pewclimate.org, accessed April 20, 2009. 4. International Panel on Climate Change, “Chapter 5 – Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level”, 2007, pp. 385-432. 5. Zwick, P., and Carr, M., Florida 2060 - A population distribution scenario for the State of Florida, prepared for the 1000 Friends of Florida by the Geoplan Center at the University of Florida. 29 pgs (2006). 6. Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., “National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to SeaLevel Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast”, Open-File Report 00-179. 1 sheet, (2000). 7. Volusia County Comprehensive Plan. “Chapter 11 - Coastal Management Element”, http://www.volusia.org/growth/planinfo.htm, accessed April 20, 2009. 8. Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Beaches and Coastal Systems, “Strategic Beach Management Plan”, http:// www.dep.state.fl.us/beaches/, accessed April 20, 2009. 9. Stanton, E., and Ackerman, F., Florida and Climate Change – The Costs of Inaction, Tufts University, 104 pgs, (2007). 10. National Wildlife Federation, Unfavorable Tide – Global Warming, Coastal Habitats and Sportfishing in Florida, 60 pgs, (2006).


Lightning Physics and The Study of Climate Change and Sustainability Joseph R. Dwyer and Hamid K. Rassoul Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology,. 150 W. University Blvd., Melbourne FL 32901 USA, (321) 674-8778, [email protected], [email protected]

Abstract. By definition, climate models investigate relatively long time scales and large geographic regions. As a result, such models use relatively large brush strokes when painting a picture of how climate change will impact our planet. However in order to determine sustainability of a particular system, often times, the short term response of a more limited system to large scale, or slowly varying changes must be understood. The physics involved in that system may be quite different from the physics used in climate modeling. In this paper, we will discuss the role of climate change on lightning parameters and show the importance of understanding physical and dynamic meteorology when investigating the effects of climate change. We will use this example to illustrate the broader point that the physics required to investigate climate change and sustainability cannot be restricted to those topics immediately relevant to climatology. Keywords: climate change, lightning, thunderclouds. PACS: 52.80.-s, 92.60.Pw, 92.60.Qx, 92.60.Ry

INTRODUCTION When studying climate change, in addition to several basic parameters such as seasurface temperature or carbon dioxide abundances, researchers must look for signals arising in more complicated systems such as the frequency and strength of Atlantic hurricanes or the frequency and intensity of lightning activity. However, in order to predict such signals, it is necessary to understand in detail the pertinent physics in these systems. Unfortunately, in many cases the physics is not well known and so the impact of climate change on such complicated systems is full of uncertainties. This lack of understanding of the physics, in turn, affects the interpretation of observational data and its relevance to climate change. One example that illustrates this point is the impact of climate change on worldwide lightning activity. There is a very simple argument why global warming will increase the amount and/or intensity of lightning: namely, lightning is an electrical discharge produced by thunderclouds. Thunderclouds become electrified by converting mechanical energy, i.e. updrafts and falling precipitation, into electrical energy. The mechanical energy is due to the release of latent heat contained in moist air, which often comes from the evaporation of sea water. Finally, warm air may hold more moisture than cool air. Therefore, putting it all together, the argument goes that CP1157, Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon, edited by G. L. Nelson and I. Hronszky


if we increase the rate of sea water evaporation due to a warmer ocean and we have warmer air, then the result will be more moisture in the atmosphere, which causes more and/or stronger thunderclouds and hence enhanced lightning. This argument is perfectly reasonable and agrees well with what we know about thunderstorms and lightning. One may follow up this scenario with an argument about the frequency of forest fires [1]. Many forest fires are caused by lightning. Global warming may cause some regions to receive less rainfall, making such regions more prone to forest fires. Now, add in the increased lightning predicted by the simple model above and the natural prediction is more forest fires. This prediction may, in the end, turn out to be correct. The world may indeed experience more forest fires due to global warning in the years to come. However, great caution must be exercised when presenting scientific evidence. This reasonable sounding model predicts that an increased occurrence of forest fires is a consequence of global warning. As a result, if such an increase is indeed measured, for whatever reason, it might be used to validate this model and by inference the existence of global warming. We note that we are not arguing against the existence of global warning. Instead, we are attempting to sharpen the discussion.

OUTSTANDING PROBLEMS IN LIGHTNING PHYSICS So, what is the problem? The difficulty arises from the fact that we actually know very little about how thunderstorms and lightning work beyond some simple facts, several of which we already discussed. As an example, one of the great unsolved mysteries in atmospheric sciences is how lightning is initiated inside thunderclouds [2]. Everything we know about discharge physics says that very strong electric fields should be present in order to initiate a spark such as lightning, equivalent to 3×106 V/m on the ground . For fields below this value, air remains a good insulator. Above this value, air becomes a good conductor. The problem is that after years of balloon, rocket and aircraft observations inside thunderclouds, no one has ever observed an electric field anywhere near this electrical breakdown field [3]. As a result, how lightning actually gets started is not known. This means that scientists cannot explain how much lightning will occur in a given thundercloud and cannot predict how intense it will be, let alone predict how these numbers will change with changing climate conditions. A second illustration of how little we know about how thunderstorms and lightning really work is the high-energy radiation that is observed to be emitted by both. According to conventional wisdom, the atmosphere should not be a bright source of high-energy radiation such as x-rays and gamma-rays, yet in recent years such x-rays and gamma-rays have been observed by spacecraft, aircraft, balloons and on the ground. Indeed, we now know that both thunderclouds and lightning emit copious amounts of x-rays and gamma-rays [4]. Exactly how this radiation is emitted and what circumstances inside thunderclouds and near lightning are present to cause this emission are not known [5]. An example, of a large flash of gamma-rays observed on the ground in Florida, which originated from a thundercloud, is shown in Figure 1. This gamma-ray flash bears a close resemblance to so-called terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs) observed from space, which are now known to originate from


thunderclouds as well [6, 7]. Before the 1980’s, no one knew that such radiation was present. Since we still do not know how it is being produced, there are clearly basic facts about thunderclouds and lightning that we do not understand. Given this level of uncertainty about the important physics involved in thunderclouds and lightning, one must be very careful when evaluating models that make predictions about thundercloud and lightning behavior. At the very least, we must improve our understanding of many physical and dynamic meteorological processes before having confidence in such models.

FIGURE 1. A large flash of gamma-rays, measured on the ground, that originated from an overhead thundercloud (from Dwyer et al. 2004).


WHAT DO WE KNOW AND DON’T KNOW ABOUT THE PHYSICS OF LIGHTNING? Worldwide, lightning flashes about 4 million times a day, and bolts have even been observed on other planets. Yet despite its familiarity, lightning has baffled physicists for decades. It is a surprisingly complex and perplexing phenomenon that requires a full understanding of atmospheric sciences, plasma physics, high-energy physics and electromagnetic radiation engineering. An example is the missing physics link between the formation of a fully charged cloud and its subsequent lightning discharges. The following is a list of big unanswered questions in understanding the physics of lightning. (1) What microphysical processes are responsible for thunderstorm electrification? (2) How does lightning get started with the relatively low electric field strengths inside thunderstorms? (3) How does lightning travel through tens of kilometers of virgin air in such a focused beam of energy? (4) What are the physical relations between initiation of lightning discharges, formation of Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) which are the most powerful terrestrial gamma radiators, and commencement of the Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) which are the most powerful terrestrial radio frequency radiators? Are they manifestations of the same physics in different energetic domains and/or perhaps related to different meteorological settings? (5) How does lighting produce x-rays? To illustrate the state of the field, we list below some recent findings, many of which were made in the University of Florida/Florida Tech International Center for Lightning Research and Testing (ICLRT) with the newly completed Thunderstorm Energetic Radiation Array (TERA) -- the largest ground based x-ray detector array in the world for studying lightning. (1) It is now established that lightning emits x-rays. This supports the idea that lightning somehow accelerates electrons to nearly the speed of light in a phenomenon called runaway breakdown. (2) It was discovered that x-ray emission in lightning is associated with leader steps, which affects lightning propagation in air. (3) A fundamentally new electrical breakdown mechanism of air based upon high energy electrons and positrons has been discovered. (4) It was discovered that laboratory sparks emit x-rays, and some of the key characteristics of streamer and spark discharges have been established. (5) It was discovered that Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) originate from thunderstorms, not from high altitude sprites as had long been assumed. (6) The “Dwyer Instability” in thunderstorms was discovered. This instability puts a fundamental limit on the electric field in air.


(7) A new energetic phenomenon in upper atmosphere, known as Terrestrial Electron Flashes (TEFs) was observed from a space platform (CGRO/BATSE and RHESSI Spacecraft). (8) The observations of the first ground level TGF event was reported, and showed that the energetic radiation doses to aircraft passengers may be dangerously large inside thunderstorms. (9) Finally, in 2009, Dwyer, et al, presented a model of the radiofrequency emissions produced by relativistic runaway electron avalanches initiated by extensive cosmic-ray air showers. Their proposed technique of single point measurements of the radiation electromagnetic fields allows the remote determination of the electrostatic field in the runaway electron avalanche region. Based on this theory, it is possible to use ground based and/or remote aircraft or balloon measurements of the radiofrequency pulses to map the magnitudes and directions of the electrostatic field within a thundercloud for regions with electric fields above the runaway avalanche threshold. Such measurements, which are difficult to perform in situ, may help answer several of the key questions regarding lightning physics such as what electric fields are usually present when lightning initiates, and do electric fields in small region of thunderstorms ever reach the conventional breakdown field.

DISCUSSION There are several important papers in recent years that deal with the connection between lightning, climate and climate change. Williams (2005) [8] gives an extensive review of the topic of global climate-lightning connections, and Price (2006, 2007, and 2009) [9,10,1] wrote excellent accounts of the subject matter. In his paper, Price also discussions the difficulty of doing long term global lightning observations and discusses applying results from short term observations. He also addresses the limits of current simulations discusses, for instance, the need for including aerosols in future work. Many people and, indeed, many scientists overestimate our understating of thundercloud and lightning, and, consequently, are not inclined to question claims about the impact of global warning on the behavior of lightning. It is our hope that this subject may serve as a lesson, which perhaps may apply to other topics, such as hurricanes and changes in local weather patterns, as well. Once again, dramatic changes with significant consequences may indeed occur as the planet warms over the next several decades. However, the state of our understanding of the various systems being investigated must be carefully considered, both in terms of making predictions and in terms of interpreting observational data.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We wish to thank Dr. Gordon Nelson for allowing us to participate in this conference on sustainability and to be involved in many useful discussions.


REFERENCES 1.

Price, C., Thunderstorms, Lightning and Climate Change, Lightning: Principles, Instruments and Applications (Editors: H.D. Betz, U. Schumann, and P. Laroche) Springer, 2009. 2. Rakov, V. A., and M. A. Uman, Lightning Physics and Effects, Cambridge University Press, p. 8284, 2003. 3. Marshall, T. C., et al., Observed electric fields associated with lightning initiation, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L03813, doi:10.1029/2004GL021802, 2005. 4. Dwyer J. R., et. al, A ground level gamma-ray burst observed in association with rocket-triggered lightning, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L05119, doi:10.1029/2003GL018771, 2004. 5. Dwyer, J. R., Energetic Radiation and Lightning, Lightning: Principles, Instruments and Applications (Editors: H.D. Betz, U. Schumann, and P. Laroche) Springer, 2009. 6. Fishman, G. J., et al., Discovery of intense gamma-ray flashes of atmospheric origin, Science, 264, 1313-1316, 1994. 7. Dwyer, J. R., and D. M. Smith, A Comparison between Monte Carlo simulations of runaway breakdown and terrestrial gamma-ray flash observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L22804, doi:10.1029/2005GL023848, 2005. 8. Williams, E., et. al., Thermodynamics conditions favorable to superlative thunderstorm updraft, mixed phase microphysics and lightning flash rate, Atmos. Res., 76, 288-306, 2005. 9. Price, C., and M. Asfur, Long term trends in lightning activity over Africa, Earth Planets Space, 58, 1-5, 2006. 10. Price, C., et. al., Schumann resonances in lightning research, J. Lightning Res., 1, 1-15, 2007.


Florida’s Climate: Past, Present, and Future Dr. Steven M. Lazarus Associate Professor, Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901, (321) 674-2160, [email protected] Abstract. Projected temperature and precipitation trends in Florida appear to be quasi-neutral – with precipitation forecasts more uncertain. These uncertainties are, in part, related to climate models and their inability to resolve aspects of the global circulation and internal oscillations. These problems can be exaggerated at the regional scale due to model resolution – adding further to the uncertainty as spatial scales decrease. For example, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a direct impact on Florida’s temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone numbers but is not well reproduced. The need for higher model resolution has led to the development of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These models continue to undergo evaluation. In what appears to be a limited area of research, Florida’s recent climate (i.e., the past 15 Ky) does not seem to have undergone significant changes in either temperature or precipitation but does indicate sea level fluctuations (rise) associated with events such as the Medieval Warm Period. Assuming that the precipitation and temperature forecasts are reliable, sea level rise is likely the most serious threat for the region. Keywords: Climate Change, El Niño, Climate Models, La Niña, Sea Level Rise PACS: 89.60,-k, 92.70.-j, 92.70.Gt, 92.70.Jw, 92.70.Mn

CLIMATE CHANGE INTRODUCTION Climate change has various temporal scales ranging from the long-term (i.e., geologic time scales) to oscillations and variations at decadal frequencies. The long term changes are reflected in what is thought to be a slow cooling of the planet from the Cretaceous period (100 Ma) to the Pleistocene (2 Ma) when volcanic activity decreased in combination with the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems. Paleoclimate data have revealed semi-regular advances and retreats of the glaciers over the last 2.8 million years – recurring at approximately a 100,000 year periodicity. Despite their relatively short record (in geologic terms), ice cores contain an abundance of highly detailed climate information -- more so than any other climate proxies such as tree rings or sediment layers. Tiny air bubbles trapped in the ice are examined for variations of deuterium (δD), which serves as a proxy for local temperature, as well as the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). It is the simultaneity (and independence) of the temperature and CO2 recorded in the ice that makes the cores such a powerful tool in paleoclimate research. The core data are considered robust over a period of 650,000 years[1] and reveal a significant correlation between the primary green house gasses (CO2 and CH4) and temperature. The early Vostok ice


cores in Antarctica also provided additional evidence of the role of astronomical forcing which believed to be responsible, in part, for the 100,000 year glacial cycle[2,3,4].

FLORIDA: PAST CLIMATE The Pliocene (5 to 3 Ma) has often been used as a surrogate warm period for climate studies, in part because the period was seemingly characterized by what is referred to as a permanent El Niño. It has been hypothesized that a permanent El Niño state may be the reason for the seeming absence of northern hemisphere glaciation prior to 2.75 Ma[5]. An El Niño1 event is characterized, in part, by the reduction of the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Equatorial Pacific associated with the expansion of the warm pool in the west Pacific. Unfortunately, state-of-the-art climate models fail to reproduce a permanent El Niño, even when forced by CO2 concentrations many times larger than those estimated for the early Pliocene. In addition, studies are mixed with some indicating that ENSO cycles continue even during warm periods such as the Pliocene and Eocene (55 to 35 Ma). Other results suggest a significant reduction in the Pacific meridional SSTs and subsequent decrease in the Hadley circulation. Ultimately, coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM (AOGCM) uncertainty is quite high for these events. As will be discussed later, the El Niño ‘problem’ has potentially profound repercussions regarding the future climate of Florida. Paleoclimate work in Florida remains somewhat limited but there are indications that the response to climate change may differ from north-to-south in the state. For example, work by Watts and Hansen[6] and Gleason and Stone[7] indicate that despite wet and dry periods over the past 15 Ky, there was still sufficient precipitation for peat formation. In other paleoclimate work, it has been suggested that an apparent reduction in precipitation around 1000 years BP might be associated with the medieval warm period while the latter Holocene appears to be associated with gradual drying with superimposed century-scale oscillations[8]. Additional studies are necessary to better understand Florida’s past climate and, as a result, it remains unclear how future climate changes are likely to impact the state. However, potential impacts include drought, floods, and tropical cyclones. Topics and issues related to these involve, but are not limited to, the onset of the rainy season, wildfires, coastal erosion, etc. Sea level changes, which are likely to significantly impact the state, are not directly related to Florida climate change per se, and are discussed only briefly herein.

FLORIDA: TEMPERATURE TRENDS In February 2006, the National Climatic Data Center transitioned to the use of an improved Global Land and Ocean data set[9] which incorporates new algorithms that better account for factors such as changes in spatial coverage and evolving observing methods. The data set was also corrected for time-dependent biases in the SST data and the effect of urban heat island influences. These data reveal that the period of 1

The El Niño/La Niña cycle is typically referred to as ENSO or El Niño /Southern Oscillation.


relatively significant warming (1976 to 1999) has been nearly global with the largest temperature changes over the mid- and high latitudes of the continents in the Northern Hemisphere (Figure 1). The large impact at higher latitudes is thought, in part, to be related to the ice-albedo feedback. Although global temperatures have increased approximately 0.5 degree since about 1970 (not shown), changes in the tropics and sub-tropics are generally on the low end. Hence, temperature changes in Florida are not projected to be as large as that in more northern climates. The largest Florida impacts, in terms of temperature, are related to changes in land use including urbanization and wetland drainage[10]. For the most part, green house gasses (GHGs) do not appear to be directly impacting Florida’s temperatures.

FIGURE 1. Global temperature trends (with respect to the 1961-1990 base period) from 1976 to 2000. Red (blue) circles depict positive/warming (negative/cooling) trends for the period. The circle size is proportional to the magnitude of the temperature change. Image obtained from NCDC (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/).

Temperature time series are shown for two locations in Figure 2. The data have not been adjusted or corrected in any way. One site is a representative Florida station and the other is a station located in the Northwest Territories of Canada. Also shown on the figures is the least squares regression line and equation for best fit. Note the y axis scales are different and tend to mask the rather significant temperature trend, at the Canadian site, which is on the order of 2oC.

FLORIDA: ENSO AND ITS IMPACT A typical ENSO event gradually develops during the early northern hemisphere summer and peaks during the latter part of December (the reason for the seasonality is not yet fully understood). As previously mentioned, theories predicting a permanent El Niño suggest that global warming will disrupt a delicate feedback between the ocean and the atmosphere. An El Niño event is said to officially end when surface trade winds blowing from east to west across the Pacific accelerate. The winds push the warm pool of water off the coast of Ecuador back toward the western Pacific. As this occurs, cold water from below upwells, replacing the departed warm water off of the northwest coast of S. America. As a result, the temperature differences between the eastern and western Pacific strengthen the trade winds – a positive feedback that draws up more cold water in the eastern Pacific. If it continues, the process will eventually erode the warm surface water associated with the El Niño event. In a warmer climate,


upwelling water would likely be warmer which in turn would reduce the east-west temperature gradient that drives the feedback that eventually pulls the climate out of an El Niño. The ENSO cycle is completed by the reverse effect referred to as La Niña, with low sea surface temperatures in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific. The La Niña climate is characterized by strong trade winds and equatorial upwelling (referred to as the cold tongue) in which Ekman pumping brings up cold and nutrient rich water from the deep ocean. Recent major ENSO events (e.g., 1983, 1997) have had a significant impact on Florida’s climate. During an El Niño (LaNiña), Florida’s winters are characterized by excess (reduced) precipitation. Schmidt et al.[11] indicate wide spread El Niño positive precipitation anomalies as high as 125 to 150% compared to neutral winters. Conversely, La Niña winters are typically 50 to 75% below normal. Hansen et al.[12] indicate that El Niño winter temperatures at Florida

FIGURE 2. Surface temperature time series for a Florida station (left) and a station from the Northwest Territories in Canada (right).

surface stations are lower than normal by about 1.7oC. As previously mentioned, the ENSO cycle can impact Florida’s fire season which typically runs from late winter through early summer. In particular, the major El Niño event during the fall and winter of 1997 transitioned to a strong La Niña signature by spring. The wet weather increased the winter biomass production which in turn became fuel during the spring as dry conditions settled in – producing one of the region’s worst fire seasons on record. Damage from these fires totaled around $276 million with large loss of property and forest along the east coast of central Florida[13]. A region of warm SSTs over the central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) during 1997 were cited as a possible cause for large-scale descent over the region and the subsequent delay of the onset of the Florida wet season[13]. The connections between the GOM SST anomalies and ENSO are not clear however.

FLORIDA CLIMATE: THE FUTURE As previously discussed, the observed temperature signal in the tropics tends to be weaker (e.g., Figs. 1 and 2). In terms of precipitation in Florida, the uncertainty is higher but current AOGCMs indicate relatively little change. It is worth noting that Florida has not experienced much in the way of any precipitation trends over the past 100 years (e.g., http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentpsc.html). However,


climate model simulations indicate relatively large decreases in summer precipitation over the Caribbean and southern GOM. It is far from certain whether these projected patterns are robust as regional model biases remain problematic due to models’ inability to adequately represent ENSO events, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Hadley and Walker circulations, etc. The IPCC07 report[1] indicates that the largest impacts of climate change will be felt through changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events. Indeed, this is currently being observed – especially with respect to temperature records as the number of record breaking warm events increases (see for example http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring/index.php). Observations also support climate model forecasts of increased precipitation over high latitude land areas and a decrease in the tropics but these results are not statistically significant. The IPCC07 also reports that future increases in heavy precipitation are expected to be accompanied by a reduction in the probability of wet days, implying a more extreme future climate with higher probabilities of droughts and heavy precipitation events. This is somewhat analogous to turning a hose on full throttle and then off (and on, etc.) as opposed to a steady but lower flow output. Current estimates indicate about a 6% increase in global precipitation for each 1K of warming[14]. What this means for Florida remains unclear. The largest increases in atmospheric water vapor are likely to occur in tandem with the warming and hence, will be more pronounced at northern latitudes. However increases in temperatures also increase surface evaporation thereby masking the precipitation changes. In Florida, where the warming is projected to be smaller, land surface drying and thus the potential for droughts may be reduced (assuming that large scale patterns that promote subsidence warming and drying are not driving the regional climate). Relative humidity trends are uncertain but observations suggest that it has remained about the same from the surface throughout the troposphere; hence warmer temperatures are likely associated with an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Regions with significant aerosol pollution mask the ground from direct sunlight which, in turn, reduces the overall moisture supply to the atmosphere. Thus, despite the potential for heavier precipitation as atmospheric water vapor content increases, the duration and frequency of events are expected to decrease because it takes longer to recharge the atmosphere with water vapor. It has been hypothesized that warmer SSTs are leading to more intense tropical cyclones[15]. These are arguments are physical and based on the concept of a Carnot heat engine whereby the efficiency is enhanced by increasing the temperature gradient between two reservoirs. In the context of hurricanes, the lower reservoir (the ocean) warms as a result of climate change which increases the amount of potential energy that is converted to kinetic (winds). This simple model does not take into account other mitigating factors that influence the frequency and intensity of hurricanes such as wind shear. Recent studies actually project a decrease in future tropical cyclone frequency[16] while only TC intensity is forecast to increase in response to climate change[17]. There is an ongoing debate in the literature regarding current trends in both intensity and numbers of storms that has yet to be resolved, in part due to the short record of reliable storm data. Determining whether or not the recent increase in storms is climatologically significant remains problematic[18] as do intensity trends because natural cycles such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can mask the climate signal. Regardless, this issue is obviously important for Florida given the


amount of coastal development that has occurred over the past several decades. Longer records combined with paleotempestology research may eventually increase our understanding of climate and its impact on tropical cyclones.

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION Projected temperature and precipitation trends in Florida appear to be quasi-neutral – with precipitation forecasts more uncertain. These uncertainties are, in part, related to climate models and their inability to resolve aspects of the global circulation and internal oscillations. These problems can be exaggerated at the regional scale due to model resolution – adding further to the uncertainty as spatial scales decrease. For example, ENSO has a direct impact on Florida’s temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone numbers but is not well reproduced in AOGCMs. The need for higher model resolution has led to the development of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). RCM simulations are highly coupled to their boundary forcing and are thus subject to the same biases and problems of AOGCMs. These models continue to undergo evaluation. In what appears to be a limited area of research, Florida’s recent climate (i.e., the past 15 Ky) does not seem to have undergone significant changes in either temperature or precipitation but does indicate sea level fluctuations (rise) associated with events such as the Medieval Warm Period. Details relating to sea level were not presented here as the discussion was focused on direct climate effects. However, assuming that the precipitation and temperature forecasts are reliable, sea level rise is likely the most serious threat for our region. Current rates of sea level rise, which are considered robust[19] are estimated at 2.8 mm/yr (+/- 0.4 mm/yr) over the past decade (IPCC07)[1]. Furthermore, studies indicate that South Florida sea level is currently rising faster than any period in the last 5 Ky[20]. What is not clear, but important, is the rate of change or “hinge” points and what drives them. Accelerated sea level rise has most definite consequences for all of Florida’s coastal population.

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Collins, W. D., and Coauthors, 2006: Radiative forcing by wellmixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14317, doi:10.1029/2005JD006713. Barnola, J.-M., D. Raynaud, Y.S. Korotkevich, and C. Lorius. 1987. Vostok ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2. Nature 329:408-14. Jouzel, J., C. Lorius, J.R. Petit, C. Genthon, N.I. Barkov, V.M. Kotlyakov, and V.M. Petrov. 1987. Vostok ice core: A continuous isotopic temperature record over the last climatic cycle (160,000 years). Nature 329:403-8. Jouzel, J., N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, C. Genthon, V.M. Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, J.R. Petit, D. Raynaud, G. Raisbeck, C. Ritz, T. Sowers, M. Stievenard, F. Yiou, and P. Yiou. 1993. Extending the Vostok ice-core record of palaeoclimate to the penultimate glacial period. Nature 364:407-12. Zachos, J. M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, and K. Billups, 2001: Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 ma to present. Science, 292, , 686-693. Watts, W.A., and B. C. S. Hansen, 1988: Environments of Florida in the late Wisconsin and Holocene. Wet Site Archaeology, Telford Press, Caldwell, New Jersey, 307–323.


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Gleason, P.J. and P. Stone, 1994: Age, origin, and landscape evolution of the Everglades peatland: Everglades--The Ecosystem and its Restoration. St. Lucie Press, 149-197. Kaplan, S. W., 2003: Pete Records of late Holocene Climate and sea level change in South Florida. U. Wisconsin-Madison Ph. D. thesis, 211 pp. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609–1625. Winsberg, Morton D., J. J. O'Brien, D. Zierden, and M. Griffin, 2003: Florida Weather, pp 1-192, University Press of Florida. Schmidt, N., E.K. Lipp, J.B. Rose, and M.E. Luther, 2001: ENSO Influences on Seasonal Rainfall and River Discharge in Florida. J. Climate, 14, 615–628. Hansen, J.W., J.W. Jones, C.F. Kiker, and A.W. Hodges, 1999: El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida. J. Climate, 12, 92–102. Krishnamurti, T.N., D. Bachiochi, T. LaRow, B. Jha, M. Tewari, D.R. Chakraborty, R. CorreaTorres, and D. Oosterhof, 2000: Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Modeling of the El Niño of 1997–98. J. Climate, 13, 2428–2459. Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G.C. Hegerl, 2007: Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1419–1444. Emanuel, K.A., 1988: The maximum intensity of hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1143-1155. Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905. Knutson, T. R., J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, G. A. Vecchi, and I. M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature, 1, 359-364. Landsea, C. W., 2007: Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones back to 1900. EOS, 88, 197 & 2002. Cazenave, A., and R. S. Nerem, 2004: Present-day sea level change: Observations and Causes. Rev. Geophys., 42, 20 pp. Wanless, H. R., R. W. Parkinson, and L.P. Tedesco, 1994: Sea level control on stability of Everglades wetlands. Everglades; the ecosystem and its restoration, St. Lucie Press, 199-222.


Effects of Climate Change on Fishery Species in Florida Jonathan M. Shenker Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd., Melbourne, FL 32901, USA, (321) 674-8145, [email protected]

Abstract. Recreational and commercial fishery species in Florida and elsewhere are under serious stress from overfishing and many types of habitat and water quality degradation. Climate change may add to that stress by affecting an array of biological processes, although the range of some subtropical and tropical species may expand northward in the state. It is expected to trigger sea level rise and changes in hurricanes and precipitation levels in Florida and elsewhere. Perhaps the most significant impacts of climate change on fishery species will also associated with changes in seagrasses and mangroves that function as Essential Nursery Habitats. Seagrasses in estuarine and coastal areas are limited by water depth and light penetration. Increases in sea level and in precipitation-induced turbidity may restrict the extent of seagrass habitats and their role in fishery production. Expanded efforts to reduce nutrient and sediment loading into seagrass habitats may help minimize the potential loss of a valuable fish nursery habitat. Mangroves have also been affected by human activities, and are the subject of restoration efforts in many areas. Potential sea level rise may cause an expansion of mangrove habitats in the Everglades, at the expense of freshwater habitats. This potential tradeoff of habitats should be considered by the water flow and habitat restoration programs in the Everglades. Keywords: Climate Change, Fisheries, Mangroves, Seagrasses, Sea-Level Rise PACS: 89.60.-k, 92.70.Mn, 92.20.Jt

INTRODUCTION Recreational and commercial fishery species have long been under severe stress across the world, due to intense overfishing, habitat destruction, alteration of river flow regimes, pollution and other anthropogenic stresses. Depletion of individual fisheries often triggers a switch to other fishery stocks, which often rapidly become overfished themselves. As the populations of forage fishes or predatory fishes decline, their roles in local ecosystems can change, resulting in dramatic alterations in the structure and trophodynamic interactions of marine and freshwater communities[1-3]. The economic and social implications of fisheries depletion on human societies are enormous. Environmental responses to prospective global climate change constitute further potential impacts on ecosystems and fishery species, as well as the human populations that rely on fishery resources. This chapter utilizes Florida fish species and ecosystems to identify potential impacts of climate change on fish populations, and focuses on one of the most important limiting factors for fish recruitment: the quantity and quality of Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) utilized by juvenile fishes. EFH is a legal CP1157, Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon, edited by G. L. Nelson and I. Hronszky


criterion established by the Sustainable Fisheries Act (1996) passed as a law by the United States Congress in 1996, and is defined as "those waters and substrate necessary to fish for spawning, breeding, feeding or growth to maturity." Identifying potential impacts of climate change on EFH will help focus efforts to mitigate or minimize those impacts.

LIFE HISTORY OF FISHES AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE Although fishes exhibit tremendous diversity in their life history strategies, some general patterns exhibited by many fishery species can be used to define EFH that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Most coastal or estuarine demersal species in Florida (e.g. redfish, snook, sea trout, groupers, snappers, bonefish, tarpon) have a bipartite life history where adult spawning activity produces planktonic larvae[4-12]. Larvae remain in the water column for several weeks to a month or more prior to settling into shallow nursery habitats and metamorphosing into demersal juveniles. Critical habitats for juveniles are considered Essential Nursery Habitats (ENH). The juveniles typically migrate into different portions of the ecosystem as they grow, ultimately moving into their adult habitats by the time they reach sexual maturity. Many of the abiotic and biotic processes affecting each life stage are potentially impacted by changing climate. Spawning seasonality of species is often affected by annual temperature cycles, and projected warmer temperatures may expand the spawning season of some species in Florida[13], and to increase the spawning success of fish populations near their northern limits of their ranges. The Indian River Lagoon on the east coast of Florida spans the boundary of temperate and subtropical Warmer zoogeographic provinces, resulting in very high fish diversity[14]. temperatures could thus increase the northward extent of subtropical and tropical components of the regional fauna, altering local community structure. Juveniles of some species such as snook and tarpon, are killed by episodes of cold weather near their northern limits[15], suggesting that warming environment could increase their survival in more northerly regions. Exotic freshwater fish species introduced into Florida (e.g. tilapia, Mayan cichlids, and armored catfish) may also shift northward as the climate warms. The southward migration of temperate species may be negatively affected by increasing temperatures. Of particular concern is the anadromous American shad, an important fishery species that spawns in river systems from Canada to Florida. Juveniles and adults mature during their oceanic migrations along the east coast of North America before returning to their natal rivers to spawn. The St. Johns River along the northeast coast of Florida is the southernmost population of this species. Fish from populations in more northerly rivers are capable of making repeated spawning migrations over multiple years. The long spawning migration into the St. Johns River is apparently so energetically demanding, and fish are so near their limits of their thermal maximum, that these fish die after a single spawning season[16]. The St. Johns River population of American shad is thus probably more vulnerable to warming environmental conditions than any other fish species in the state.


The pelagic larvae of many marine fish species may also be impacted by changing climate conditions. Although entrainment into oceanic currents may drive longdistance transport of larvae, recent research indicates that an array of larval behaviors may enable the pelagic larvae to remain near their natal areas[17-19]. The increasing awareness of the potential for “self-recruitment” has important implications for development of fishery management strategies, including the design and management of Marine Protected Areas. However, alterations of current structures can influence the supply of larvae. In particular, storms and hurricanes have been shown to drive large pulses of larvae of groupers and tarpon into near-shore and nursery regions[12,20]. An increase in hurricane frequency, as suggested by some climate models, may thus affect the transport and recruitment of larvae into different habitats. Although changes in temperature, currents and hurricanes may affect some aspects of fish reproduction and recruitment, the most likely impacts of climate change on many of Florida’s fish populations are associated with changes in estuarine and coastal nursery habitats. Seagrasses and mangroves provide complex habitat structures and support productive trophic systems that make them extremely important habitats for juvenile fishes[4-11,14,22-27]. Typically located along land/ocean margins of Florida, seagrasses and mangroves have been heavily impacted by human activities over the last century. Some of these activities involved physical destruction of the habitats: dredging and filling for construction of buildings and other development projects, for causeways across bodies of water, for creation of navigation channels, and to eliminate mosquito breeding habitats. Degradation of water quality and alteration of water flow patterns in estuaries are less visible than outright destruction of seagrasses and mangroves, but are more pervasive and may have had greater impacts on overall ecosystem function and fish production. Seagrasses are flowering plants that have evolved to live on the substrate in shallow waters. Their leaves, rhizomes and roots trap sediments and nutrients from overlying currents[28]. High light levels are required for photosynthesis and maintenance of both the exposed blades and the nonphotosynthetic rhizome and root structures. Primary limitations on the distribution of seagrasses include the clarity and depth of the water above the seagrass blades. Factors that reduce clarity, such as nutrient input and eutrophication, resuspension of sediments, and water depth all limit the distribution, abundance and productivity of seagrasses[29-31]. The primary production of seagrasses and epiphytes supports dense and diverse assemblages of benthic infauna and epibenthic invertebrates. The abundance of prey and the complex structure that provides protection from predators makes seagrasses vital habitats for juveniles of fishery species such as sea trout and redfish, and forage fishes (e.g. mojarras, pinfish, and pigfish). Reduction in seagrasses thus decreases the quantity and quality of Essential Fish Habitat for many species. In the Indian River Lagoon, as elsewhere in Florida, seagrass abundance declined over many decades[29-32]. Seagrass surveys conducted by the Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program enable the mapping of seagrass distributions and determination of temporal and spatial trends in seagrass abundance. The surveys and associated studies demonstrate that rapid human population growth, filling wetlands for development or mosquito control, construction of causeways that hinder water flow, discharge of untreated or minimally-treated storm water and wastewater,


extensive fertilization of lawns and agricultural areas, and diversion of freshwater from the St. Johns River into the Indian River Lagoon all contributed to eutrophication, sedimentation and decline in light penetration into the Lagoon waters[31,32]. These factors, particularly the increase in turbidity, chlorophyll-a and color are influenced by sediment and nutrient loading, and are considered to be the primary reasons for the reduction of seagrasses in many parts of the lagoon. Parts of the lagoon adjacent to the area of the densest human populations have experienced a 70% loss of seagrass coverage since the 1940s, and seagrasses are generally limited to waters shallower than 1 m deep (Figure 1 [33]).

FIGURE 1. Seagrass distributions around the part of the Indian River Lagoon in 2001-2005 [33]. Sea grasses are generally restricted to shallow (< 1 m) waters away from the most heavily inhabited portions of the region.

Seagrass coverage has remained relatively stable in regions with limited human activity, such as near the federally protected NASA/Kennedy Space Center/Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge[33]. Greater water clarity and minimal human impacts permit the growth of more extensive seagrass meadows (Figure 2). Significant funding and effort have been expended by government agencies and citizens groups to minimize human impacts and restore seagrass habitats in the Indian River Lagoon and other coastal habitats in Florida and elsewhere. Reduced nutrient loading by elimination of wastewater discharges, control of turbidity by removing particulates from stormwater runoff, and restoring historical water drainage patterns have all contributed greatly toward the recovery of seagrasses in some regions.


FIGURE 2. Seagrass distributions around the northern part of the Indian River Lagoon in 2001-2005 [33] where human impacts are relatively minimal.

Seagrasses are only one of the Essential Nursery Habitats for fishes in Florida. Mangroves that fringe the intertidal shoreline along much of peninsular Florida are another vital habitat. Three species of mangroves occur in narrow belts along the shoreline in some regions of Florida, while the southern region of the Everglades system comprises one of the largest mangrove forests in the world. The prop roots of red mangroves, pneumatophores of black mangroves and trunks of red, black and white mangroves provide complex habitats for juvenile fishes to hide. Mangroves provide significant sources of nutrients that drive secondary productivity, further increasing the value of these habitats as nurseries for juvenile fishes such as snook, tarpon, snappers and groupers. Some mangroves occur in hypersaline or highly variable salinity regimes, reducing the numbers of fish species that can utilize their structures[22]. An estimated 25-30% of mangrove habitat within portions of the Indian River Lagoon have been lost to direct human activity during the last 60 years [haddad 88], with many thousands of additional acres being incorporated into mosquito control


impoundments in the1950s and 1960s. Although many impoundments have since been reconnected to the lagoon, reduced hydrodynamic circulation through the impoundments limits water exchange and poor water quality limits the use of these habitats to fishes such as juvenile tarpon and snook that are tolerant of low oxygen levels[4,22]. Government and public organizations sponsor mangrove reforestation efforts along the edges of the lagoon. Both mangrove and seagrass habitats have been impacted by human activities, and restoration efforts have begun to increase their abundance in many parts of Florida. Anticipated changes in coastal ecosystems as a result of climate change have the potential to reverse or alter the recovery trend, further limiting the availability of these vital Essential Nursery Habitats. Seagrasses are vulnerable to a number of stressors associated with climate change. Increasing temperatures can alter growth rates and other physiological functions including rates of flowering and sexual reproduction[34-36]. Perhaps most important will be the response of seagrasses to sea level rise, especially in areas where high turbidity already limits light penetration and restricts seagrasses to shallow waters. Anticipated increases in storms and rainfall may increase nutrient and sediment loading into the estuaries, further decreasing light penetration and the proportion of the habitat that can support seagrasses. Recent regulatory activities that call for significant reductions in nutrient and sediment transport into coastal habitats may mitigate at least a portion of the problem on increased turbidity and water depth. If sea level rise were to occur at a slow pace in unimpacted habitats, it is likely that increased sedimentation would partly compensate for the increase in sea level, and that seagrasses would spread out into newly-flooded shallow areas. However, the human response to sea level rise may be to harden shorelines in many areas to limit flooding of private and public property. This alteration of shorelines would eliminate many areas from flooding and curtail the expansion of seagrasses into new areas. A different response to sea level change is expected for mangroves, which are not limited by water turbidity. Hardening of shorelines would preclude mangrove reforestation in some areas, but other regions might experience an increase in mangrove coverage. Of particular interest are the Everglades, which support one of the largest mangrove habitats in the world. The nearly flat slope and sea level elevation of the Everglades provides an ideal habitat for mangroves[37,38]. Freshwater influx from peninsular Florida limits their present distribution to the seaward fringe of the Everglades. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan seeks to reverse the diversion of freshwater flow that was altered for agricultural, development and municipal purposes. The planned increase of freshwater flow to the Everglades may, however, be offset by sea level rise and saltwater intrusion into freshwater swamps and other habitats. An integrated landscape model (Figure 3) developed to predict the changes in mangrove distributions associated with sea level rise suggests that mangrove distributions in the Everglades may increase dramatically with increasing sea level, at the expense of freshwater habitats[38].


FIGURE 3. Projected distribution of mangrove species in the Everglades by 2100 under different sea level rise scenarios[38].

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Climate change is expected to trigger sea level rise and changes in hurricanes and precipitation levels in Florida and elsewhere. Climate change may have direct impacts on distribution of some fish species, and on processes affecting their reproduction and growth. Significant impacts of climate change on fishery species will also be associated with changes in seagrasses and mangroves that function as Essential Nursery Habitats. The distribution of seagrasses is limited by light penetration in shallow waters. Sea level rise is expected to reduce the amount of benthic habitat that can support seagrasses by increasing water depth over existing seagrass habitats and by reducing light penetration because of increased turbidity associated with changes in rainfall and hurricane patterns. The spread of seagrasses into newly-flooded shallow habitats may be limited by humans hardening shorelines to protect personal and public property. Successful completion of current efforts to reduce nutrient and sediment loading into estuaries are vital to at least partially mitigate the effects of sea level rise on seagrasses and juvenile fish populations. Mangroves along the fringes of Florida are not as vulnerable to climate change, although they have been heavily impacted by other human activities. Restoration efforts for mangrove habitats are underway in many regions. Projected increases in


sea level may put mangrove restoration into conflict with shoreline hardening and protection activities, although mangroves themselves have proven to be a buffer against hurricane-driven flooding. The potential increase in mangrove habitat in the Everglades, and concurrent loss of freshwater habitats, suggests that water flow restoration programs should consider and balance the value of each type of habitat.

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Sustaining Ecosystem Services in the Global Coral Reef Crisis Richard B. Aronsona and William F. Prechtb a

Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd., Melbourne, FL 32901, USA b Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, P. O. Box 1083, Key Largo, FL 33037, USA

Abstract. Objective science is critical to understanding the relative impacts of the many putative causal agents in the global coral reef crisis. This paper provides an evidence-based scenario of causality leading to the current state of reef degradation. Contrary to revisionist narratives that emphasize the local-scale effects of fishing and nutrient loading, coral populations were and are degrading primarily due to regional- to global-scale factors. Most important among these largescale factors are disease outbreaks and coral bleaching, both of which are related to climate change. Because policy recommendations and management strategies will differ depending on which cause(s) are perceived to exert the greatest influence, scientists must be explicit about when they are acting as advocates and when they are objectively conveying scientific results. Legitimate scientific debate is healthy and in no way diminishes the goal of creating cogent policy. Forced ideological unification, in contrast, risks obfuscation, undermining the scientific process. Science must move forward unfettered by political expediency; however, the situation is dire enough to warrant immediate action on local, regional, and global levels, based on the best scientific information at hand, in parallel with continuing research. Keywords: Advocacy, climate change, coral reefs, ecosystem services, hurricanes, overfishing, sea-level rise, sustainability. PACS: 92.10.am, 92.70.-j.

INTRODUCTION Coral reef ecosystems are degrading at an accelerating rate, jeopardizing the ecosystem services they provide [1–4]. Those services include the protection of tropical shorelines from erosion, the production of food for hundreds of millions of people, the provision income from non-extractive activities in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and the storage of an untold wealth of bioactive compounds with potential medical applications. Alarm among scientists, policymakers, and the public over the future of coral reefs has effectively erased the distinction between pure and applied science in the study of coral reefs. Of deeper concern, clear and objective science has been confounded with advocacy regarding the primacy of different putative causes [5]. This paper briefly reviews what has been happening on coral reefs over the last three decades and provides the rationale for a program of strategic actions simultaneously at local, regional, and global scales to sustain coral reef resources and their attendant ecosystem services. CP1157, Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon, edited by G. L. Nelson and I. Hronszky 2009 American Institute of Physics 978-0-7354-0694-0/09/$25.00


THE CORAL REEF CRISIS Hasty generalization from a few intensively studied reefs has produced biased interpretations of the spatial extent and causes of reef degradation. Nevertheless, these interpretations are widely published [6–8] and accepted by the majority of coral reef scientists. In this scenario, the Caribbean was the first region to experience severe reef degradation, and over-exploitation of fish populations was central to the loss of ecosystem function on those reefs. The story is scientifically appealing and relatively straightforward. Decades to centuries of fishing activity along Caribbean coastlines reduced stocks of predatory reef fish. Populations of the herbivorous echinoid Diadema antillarum increased as predation pressure on them was alleviated. In situations of severe overfishing, even herbivorous fish were removed, leaving D. antillarum as the ecologically most important herbivore. The regional loss of Diadema to a water-borne pathogen during the 1980s reduced the resilience of Caribbean reefs to disturbance. In the absence of Diadema, perturbations including hurricanes and outbreaks of coral disease precipitated an apparent phase shift from dominance by hard corals (Scleractinia and Milleporina) to dominance by macroalgae (i.e., seaweeds), because there were no herbivores to control algal settlement, growth, and reproduction. Once macroalgae were established, they overgrew and outcompeted living corals. The macroalgaedominated state was self-perpetuating and resistant to transition back to the coraldominated state [9]. Nutrient loading exacerbated the phase shift in some places by promoting macroalgal growth, and some authors attributed to nutrient loading a primary role in the phase shift [10]. Aronson and Precht [5, 11] and other authors deconstructed this narrative. First, although nutrient loading can be an important factor in the degradation of reefs situated close to dense human populations, in most situations nutrient loading is not the primary cause of reef degradation [12–14]. Second, the presumption that overfishing of herbivores has been an important cause of macroalgal growth on Caribbean reefs is not accurate ([5]; see [15] for a Pacific example). Third, despite repetitive assertions in the literature [16, 17], macroalgal overgrowth of living corals has not been an important cause of the coral–macroalgal phase shift [5]. Fourth, recent evidence shows that macroalgal dominance as an ecological state does not resist conversion to the coral-dominated state; recovery of herbivores reverses the coral– macroalgal phase shift without hysteresis [18, 19]. Fifth, even the deeply entrenched notion that corals have generally given way to macroalgae appears to be inaccurate [20]; many or most reefs have not been overrun by macroalgae, possibly indicating that herbivore populations are healthier than has generally been supposed. A more accurate view of the degradation of Caribbean reefs is that factors operating at regional to global scales are the primary causes of mass coral mortality. If the mortality of corals exceeds the capacity of herbivores to respond either behaviorally or numerically to the vast extent of bare space provided by exposure of the dead coral skeletons, then transient or persistent macroalgal dominance can ensue (reviewed in [5]; see [21] for a Pacific example). Coral mortality leads to the loss of physical structure, with a consequent decline in fish populations [22–25]. This revised


scenario does not preclude a role for herbivory in resilience: by controlling macroalgae, herbivores could promote the recovery of coral populations by preventing algal overgrowth of coral recruits [26]. Coral cover indisputably declined in the Caribbean beginning in the late 1970s [27]; however, the common presumption that mortality of hard corals commenced earlier and was more widespread and severe in the Caribbean than in other regions is not correct. Coral mortality occurred extensively throughout the Indo-Pacific at roughly the same time, if not earlier [28]. Paleoecological evidence suggests that recent changes on both Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs were unprecedented events in at least the last 3000 yr, and possibly longer [29–33]. Despite legitimate concerns about the impending impacts of global change, including increasing sea temperatures, increasing cyclone intensity and decreasing aragonite saturation state [4, 34, 35], coral assemblages on Caribbean reefs have been affected primarily by outbreaks of infectious marine diseases [36, 37]. Hurricanes and temperature-induced coral bleaching have also had important impacts on coral mortality [38, 39]. Emergent diseases could be related to or exacerbated by rising temperatures and nutrient loading [37, 40–42]. The idea that diseases are promoted by the excessive availability of carbon [43–45] has recently been challenged [46]. Infectious diseases are now increasing on Indo-Pacific reefs [37, 47]; however, two effects of global change—rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification—are probably the greatest threats to coral populations in the Indo-Pacific [4, 35, 48, 49]. Temperature-induced bleaching events and resultant mass coral mortalities have increased in both frequency and severity in recent decades [50]. A likely outcome of global warming will be increased extremity of the high sea temperatures produced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Local sea temperatures are expected to exceed the bleaching thresholds of resident coral populations with increasing frequency [2, 50]. The consequence could be chronic bleaching, with coral mortality outpacing the capacity of the coral–zooxanthellae symbiosis to acclimate and adapt [51, 52]. Ocean acidification will decrease coral growth rates by inhibiting the deposition of aragonite. As discussed above, widespread coral mortality can lead to macroalgal dominance unless herbivores are abundant enough to control algae growing on the large expanses of newly opened substratum (or unless physical forces, such as normal wave scour or winter storms, keep the algae in check). In most cases of biotic control, the herbivores are echinoids rather than fish [53–56]. Elevated densities of echinoids, however, also increase rates of bioerosion of reef framework and can suppress coral recruitment [53, 54, 57]. Interrupted coral growth and increased bioerosion presumably decrease vertical reef accretion. For reefs that are already growing under suboptimal conditions, the result could be incipient reef drowning, in which accelerating sea-level rise puts poorly growing coral populations in ever deeper water, further suppressing coral growth and vertical reef accretion [58, 59]. In summary, coral mortality is the primary driver of reef degradation in the Caribbean. Macroalgal dominance occurs at some times and places. When it occurs, it is usually a collateral effect of coral mortality. Herbivory appears to be important to the recovery of coral populations affected by extensive mortality, but it is less important to the persistence of coral populations in the absence of such mortality [5].


Recent studies point to similar dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. How does this revised, evidence-based view of reef dynamics inform management and policy?

AN IMPERFECT SCIENCE Participants in a 2008 workshop at Cambridge University [60] were asked to identify the one hundred questions of greatest importance to conservation science. Question 48 reads, “Which management actions are most effective for ensuring the long-term survival of coral reefs in response to the combined impacts of climate change and other existing stressors?” If local factors such as overfishing are the primary drivers of reef degradation, then management should focus at a local scale on mitigating and reversing those impacts. Managing local impacts is challenging but tractable. Conserving coral reefs and their ecosystem services becomes a far more daunting task if the primary drivers of coral mortality are such regional-to-global phenomena as disease outbreaks, rising temperatures, and ocean acidification. The public and their elected representatives, as well as political appointees, policymakers, managers, and scientists, have tended to focus on the “easier” and more apparent local impacts, which were also deemed by scientific consensus to be more important [14]. Lately, as evidence has mounted that the primary causes act at scales larger than the local reef, the propensity to favor local issues has been recast in terms of providing resilience to coral reefs through local actions. In this line of reasoning, the goal of maintaining high levels of herbivory and controlling terrigenous inputs is to buy time for regional and global issues to be addressed [61]. The mission thus becomes one of controlling that which can be controlled, while decrying those factors operating at scales beyond the perceived scope and purview of coral reef management. Effort focuses on local issues because the alternative, confronting the root-causes of climate change, appears so forbidding. Like everyone else, scientists are affected by psychosocial pressures, with important implications for how coral reef science has proceeded and how the message has been carried to the public. Scientists (and the public) are continually bombarded with apocalyptic news of impending environmental disaster and have become habituated to its attendant psychological stress. Compassion fatigue is a common adaptive response to repeated exposure to upsetting information. The phenomenon is well known to fundraisers for environmental causes. Closely related to compassion fatigue is paralytic nihilism, an avatar of Nietzsche’s passive nihilism. Paralytic nihilism is the feeling that (in this case) coral reefs are already doomed, so there is no point in trying to save them. A third and far more odious problem is intellectual authoritarianism. Like many branches of scientific inquiry, the coral reef subdiscipline has been plagued by forced ideological unification, which has retarded the progress of science and, therefore, delayed the recognition of what constitutes a comprehensive and effective policy for reef conservation [5]. Misconceptions about reef dynamics have been compounded by explicit attempts to suppress legitimate scientific debate, with the excuse that draconian precautionary actions are required immediately [62]. Perhaps most disturbing, the urgency of reef degradation has blurred the distinction between science and advocacy. Some marine scientists have not been clear about when they have been acting as advocates, and through “stealth advocacy” they


have garnered considerable media attention. Other researchers have been more diligent about remaining scientific in their public outreach activities. Despite the hard work and good intentions of the latter, false promises about the efficacy of local solutions have already done considerable damage to the credibility of coral reef science.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS There is ample evidence for the worldwide degradation of coral reefs, but there is also good news to report. The reefs of the Flower Garden Banks off the coast of Texas have continuously supported high coral cover since at least as early as 1978, when long-term monitoring commenced there [63]. Furthermore, although macroalgal cover can be high on unfished as well as fished reefs, both near and far from centers of human population, macroalgae are not as pervasive worldwide as we thought. Sound management practices in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary could be one reason for the low algal cover on those reefs [20]. The causes of coral mortality are largely external to the localized reef community, reaching even the remotest atolls of the Pacific [64, 65]. Coral reef management, therefore, must expand its purview beyond the reef and the reef system. This recommendation is a logical consequence of the fact that there must be something in particular that is limiting to coral populations. If localized impacts are not as severe as previously suspected, because we now understand reef dynamics better and/or because local-scale management is already adequate, that leaves the regional and global impacts of disease and climate change as the greatest threats [1]. A nineteenth-century concept from agronomy, Leibig’s Law of the Minimum, provides an excellent metaphor for understanding the limits to coral populations. Imagine a barrel standing on one end, with staves of unequal length projecting upward. The staves represent the concentrations of different soil nutrients in Leibig’s original model, but for our purposes they represent the diversity of factors that limit coral populations to one extent or another. Water, which represents crop growth in the original and coral population growth for us, is poured into the hypothetical barrel. The maximum water level, which is to say the maximum crop yield or coral population size, is determined by the shortest stave, which represents the limiting factor. If the shortest stave is lengthened—that is, if the limiting factor is alleviated—then the nextshortest stave, which represents the next-most limiting factor, determines the water level/crop yield/coral population size. Figure 1 adapts Leibig’s barrel to the global coral reef crisis. Controlling local limitations renders larger-scale threats more important, and vice versa. Resolving the global crisis on coral reefs will require tandem action on local, regional, and global levels by coral reef scientists, policymakers, managers, advocates, and the public [1, 66]. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions is no longer someone else’s issue, leaving those involved with coral reefs to worry about the reefs per se. Beyond the Herculean (but not Sisyphean) tasks of reclaiming the atmosphere and reversing the trajectory of climate change to which the planet is already committed over the next century [67], adaptive management includes such strategies as giving priority protection to reefs that are hydrographically sheltered from the impacts of


climate change [68, 69]. Precautionary action is warranted so long as it is based not on revisionist history, but rather on a realistic assessment of the facts at hand [70].

FIGURE 1. Leibig’s Law of the Minimum applied to coral reefs. The staves are labeled from a nonexhaustive list of the factors that limit coral growth and degrade reef ecosystems. In this depiction the shortest stave represents global warming, following the arguments set forth in the text.

CONCLUSION The science of ecology strives to measure the relative contributions of multiple causes in producing an observed pattern. A strictly Popperian, falsificationist approach, which attempts to demonstrate that particular causes do not operate at all, is inappropriate and unrealistic [71]. We have been aware for decades that there are many reasons reef ecosystems are collapsing. Now we have a sober view of which factors pose the greatest threat to the persistence of reefs as we know them. Lack of interest in the future is a serious impediment to promoting the sustainable use of environmental resources [72]. Repeated claims of apocalypse now will not garner grassroots support to save them for future generations. Likewise, producing a list of the ecosystem services that reefs provide is by itself insufficient, because such a list reads more like a boring set of excuses rather than an inspiring rationale for action. The public message from scientists and advocates alike must be positive, suffused with hope, and cast in ethical as well as pragmatic terms. If coral reefs disappear or are changed to the point of being unrecognizable (which is essentially the same thing),


then we will have lost something precious and severely damaged the quality of life on Earth.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This essay is derived from a presentation by R.B.A. at Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon, convened at the Florida Institute of Technology in March 2009. We thank G. Nelson for the opportunity to participate in the forum. Many of the ideas expressed here are based on the ISRS Presidential Address that R.B.A. delivered at the Eleventh International Coral Reef Symposium, held in July 2008 at Fort Lauderdale, Florida. (ISRS is the International Society for Reef Studies.) We thank J. F. Bruno, L. J. McCook, T. J. T. Murdoch, and R. van Woesik for advice and discussion. R. M. Moody drafted Fig. 1. This is Contribution Number 7 from the Institute for Adaptation to Global Climate Change at the Florida Institute of Technology.

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Overview – Global Sustainability Gordon Nelson Dean, College of Science, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901, [email protected], http://cos.fit.edu, (321) 674-7260, fax (321) 674-8864

One of the questions asked at the Forum was can there be a Sustainable Product or a Sustainable Community? The consensus was no. While one can move toward Sustainability, with a product, company or community, true sustainability involves a large region or is global. Thus, it is appropriate that over 1/3 of this volume involves papers with a focus from outside of the US. The focus for the next Forum, the 7th International Forum on Sustainable Technological Development in a Globalizing World, will be on the impact of culture on Sustainability. Why culture? What we value as a country, in our culture, is what we want to protect. What is Sustainable is only what we value. That Forum is scheduled for June, 2010 in Berlin. The Institute for Technological Assessment (ITAS) in Karlsruhe, Germany will host the event. A portion of Dr. Banse’s paper in this section is devoted to the cultural dimension of Sustainable Development. He notes that the cultural dimension of sustainable development includes two different main topics, cultural heritage on the one hand and specific patterns of action (patterns of consumption, of transportation) on the other. In most political documents of sustainable development one sees only declarations (about the role of culture), but generally there is a lack of reflection in the following two directions (of course this depends on an understanding of “culture” – as a “fuzzy” term –as norms, values, rules, hopes, etc., but also as manners and ways to live and to work): (i) lack of cultural topics in discussions around sustainable development (mostly environmental, societal, political, … topics); (ii) lack of sustainable development in the discussions around culture (unilateral understanding of culture: art, literature, …). The initial analyses in the field of the relationships between sustainable development and culture have two conclusions as a result: - there is the necessity of a “culture of sustainable development”; and - there is the necessity of a cultural change in the direction of sustainable development if sustainable development is to be achieved. The current Forum had 30 presentations, with presenters from 7 countries. This volume captures that diversity. There is specific discussion about Eastern Europe, China and Mexico. There is a specific discussion about water (see Afterword) which was agreed is the key issue for Sustainability. World-wide, hundreds of millions of people do not have sustainable access to drinkable or potable water and they lack basic


sanitation services. Indeed, 1.6 million people die every year from diseases attributable to the lack of access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. In the world’s largest country, China, only 40% of its water meets health standards. In Mexico, only 30% of water receives any kind of sanitation treatment. Even in Florida, voters recognize that water is the #1 environmental problem. While water may be the #1 problem, climate change may exacerbate that problem. Indeed the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, has declared that climate change is “the defining challenge of our times.” Climate change trends indicate increasingly severe negative impacts on the majority of countries, with disproportionate effects on poor and vulnerable populations. The scientific reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have placed the issue on the forefront of the international agenda. Climate change is a key example that sustainability is beyond science and engineering, that the economics and the social/political aspects must also be sustainable. Isabella Bunn’s paper is first in this section and examines how climate change is shaping legal and policy developments in five key areas of UN responsibility: international law, humanitarian affairs, human rights, development, and peace and security. It concludes with some observations about high-level efforts to coordinate the response of multilateral institutions, the changing stance of the US government, and the role of environmental protection in addressing the current global economic crisis. In summary, this section starts with a focus on legal and environmental aspects of climate change, it continues with key regional discussions. This is followed by a discussion of Sustainability assessment of emerging technologies. This is followed by a discussion of how one can teach Sustainability. The section concludes with a discussion of water and its treatment to remove contaminants representative of our high technology world.


The United Nations and Climate Change: Legal and Policy Developments Isabella D. Bunn, J.D., Ph.D College of Business, Florida Institute of Technology, University Boulevard, Melbourne, Florida 32901 and Regent’s Park College, University of Oxford, Pusey Street, Oxford OX1 2LB, United Kingdom Abstract: The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, has declared that climate change is “the defining challenge of our times.” Climate change trends indicate increasingly severe negative impacts on the majority of countries, with disproportionate effects on poor and vulnerable populations. The scientific reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have placed the issue on the forefront of the international agenda. This article examines how climate change is shaping legal and policy developments in five key areas of UN responsibility: international law, humanitarian affairs, human rights, development, and peace and security. It concludes with some observations about high-level efforts to coordinate the response of multilateral institutions, the changing stance of the US government, and the role of environmental protection in addressing the current global economic crisis. Keywords: Climate Change, Earth Summit, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), International Law, Sustainable Development, United Nations, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) PACS: 87.23.Ge, 89.65.Gh, 89.60.Fe, 89.65.Ef, 92.70.Mn

INTRODUCTION The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, has declared that climate change is “the defining challenge of our times.”[1] A recent United Nations (UN) report notes the potential economic, social and environmental disruptions from climate change, emphasizing the global scale of the problem and the disproportionate effect on poor and vulnerable populations. The assessment concludes that the message is clear: “Accelerated action is urgently needed on mitigation, in order to address the causes of climate change and avoid future catastrophic consequences. At the same time, efforts for adaptation to current and future impacts must be stepped up.”[2] Indeed, the human dimensions of climate change, along with these themes of mitigation and adaptation, underpin the UN’s overall call to action to find sustainable solutions.


As an international lawyer, I am impressed by how wide-ranging and interdisciplinary the UN response to climate change has become. This innovative response can be linked to the key objectives of the entire UN system. Thus, this article examines how climate change is shaping legal and policy developments in five key areas of UN responsibility: international law, humanitarian affairs, human rights, development, and peace and security.[3] Moreover, while my expertise is not in environmental issues, I am struck by how these legal and policy developments are grounded in -- and make constant reference to -- the scientific assessment of climate change. I am also aware of the public debate over the validity of these findings, and of allegations about a deliberate misinformation campaign. Thus, before examining these five UN objectives, a few preliminary observations are in order. What is the scientific evidence for climate change? Many of my distinguished colleagues who have contributed to this volume could expound on this subject. Here, I would just like to highlight the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).[4] The IPCC was formed in 1988 by two UN bodies, the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Program. Over the following decade, the IPCC has produced four multi-volume assessments, with extensive references to the scientific literature and latest research. While not conducting its own scientific inquires, the IPPC draws upon several thousand experts from around the world as contributors and reviewers. Sir John Houghton, who chaired some of these scientific assessments, observes: Our task was honestly and objectively to distinguish what is reasonably well known and understood from those areas with large uncertainty, and to present balanced scientific conclusions to the world’s policymakers. No assessment on any other scientific topic has been so thoroughly researched and reviewed.[5] The work of the IPCC has been widely supported by the scientific community. For example, just prior to the G-8 Summit in June 2005, representatives from the academies of science of the world’s most developed countries (G-8 plus India, China and Brazil) issued a statement endorsing the conclusions of the IPCC and recommending that governments take urgent action to address climate change. As a lawyer, looking at the preponderance of the evidence and blending it with the precautionary principle, I am convinced that climate change is a genuine threat that demands an immediate and on-going multilateral response. The significance of the IPPC process is evident in both the following section on UN objectives in relation to climate change, as well as the conclusion which indicates some policy trends.


UN POLICY OBJECTIVES IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE The United Nations Organization is focused on five main policy areas: international law, humanitarian affairs, human rights, development, and peace and security. Within each of these objectives, the issue of climate change is shaping new understandings and responsibilities.

International Law Every basic textbook in the field of international law provides a series of rationales for cooperation between nations and agreement on normative principles. One of the often-cited reasons is that global problems do not stop at national boundaries, and therefore require global solutions. Environmental degradation is the leading example – an example that now invokes the threats associated with climate change. This section reviews some international law milestones. An early landmark in the environmental arena was the UN Conference on the Human Environment, held in 1972 at Stockholm. This resulted in the establishment of a new agency, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), to coordinate international efforts for environmental protection.[6] The 1980s saw the work of the World Commission on Environment and Development, as well as the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, mentioned above. These initiatives helped build support for the UN Conference on Environment and Development, held in 1992 at Rio de Janiero.[7] Dubbed the “Earth Summit,” this conference produced a number of important documents – three of which will be noted here. First, the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development reflects a consensus of developed and developing countries on the need for generally agreed norms of international environmental protection.[8] It upholds a ground-breaking concept called the “precautionary principle”: “Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not by used as a reason for postponing cost effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.” The precautionary principle now appears in virtually all the international instruments related to environmental protection, and serves as a key element of climate change policy. The Earth Summit also generated Agenda 21, which provides a comprehensive plan of action to be implemented globally, nationally and locally by UN bodies, governments and various groups.[9] The overall goal is to support the Rio commitments by strengthening global partnerships for cooperation in environment and development. Its preamble acknowledges the “perpetuation of disparities between and within nations, a worsening of poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy, and the continuing deterioration of the ecosystems on which we depend for our well-being.” The need for global partnerships, as well as the recognition of the social and economic consequences of environmental problems, continues to feature in the climate change debate. Finally, also on the occasion of the Earth Summit, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was opened for signature by UN member-states.[10]


The UNFCCC entered into force in March 1994, and now enjoys nearly-universal ratification. It recognizes the climate system as a shared resource, re-iterates the precautionary principle, and sets forth an overall approach for intergovernmental cooperation. A key objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that does not cause dangerous interference with the climate system and that is consistent with sustainable development. Building on the consensus of the Earth Summit, a further international agreement called the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in December 1997, and entered into force in February 2005.[11] Linked to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol sets binding targets for industrialized nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These are to be met by national measures supplemented by three market-based mechanisms, including carbon emissions trading. However, while the United States ratified the UNFCCC, it refused to support the Kyoto Protocol. Reasons for such a stance included the lack of involvement by developing countries and the potential negative impact on economic growth. This has limited the overall effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012. Global attention is now focused on a new post-Kyoto agreement that will establish a range of commitments on the reduction of emissions. A series of meetings have already taken place, and negotiations are expected to culminate in a conference in Copenhagen scheduled for December 2009.[12] Thus, the UN is advancing solutions to climate change through international law.

Humanitarian Affairs In the context of humanitarian affairs, the potential impact of climate change poses new threats and demands innovative responses.[13] One such threat relates to the surge of so-called environmental refugees. The first report of the IPCC in 1990 noted that the greatest single impact of climate change might be on human migration and displacement. Further reports substantiated findings that climate change will raise the risk of humanitarian emergencies. The rise in sea levels, changes in water availability and other extreme events will lead to increasing numbers of displaced people and communities. One submission to the UN warns: While there are no scientifically verified estimates of climate change-related displacement or of overall population flows triggered by the effects of climate change, it is evident that gradual and sudden environmental changes are already resulting in substantial human migration and displacement. This trend is expected to continue, with anywhere between 50 and 200 million people moving by the middle of the century, whether within their countries or across borders, on a permanent or temporary basis.[14] Already, UN resources to protect and assist refugees fleeing political unrest or natural calamities are under strain.[15] Environmental refugees pose an additional challenge, as their land may no longer be available to provide homes and subsistence in the future,


undermining any goal of return or repatriation. Indeed, UN bodies are already considering the dire prospect of statelessness related to climate change. For example: ‘Sinking island states’ present one of the most dramatic scenarios of the impact of climate change. The entire populations of low-lying States such as the Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands may in the future be obliged to leave their own country as a result of climate change. Moreover, the existence of their State as such may be threatened. Entire populations of affected states could thus become stateless.[16] A second problem centers on the issue of food security. Climate change may bring about long-term desertification of agricultural and grazing land, the reduction of fishing stock, and damage to other eco-systems. It also has the potential to cause wide-spread disruptions in the supply and distribution of food. A third area of concern relates to shifts in the overall risk of disasters. According to one UN agency, which cites the IPCC reports: Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of weather-related natural hazards such as storms, high rainfalls, floods, droughts, and heat waves. Coupled with sea level rise, this will lead to more disasters in the future – unless prompt action is taken.[17] Further problems can arise due to societal vulnerabilities from stresses on food and water supply. Already, the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction is taking climate change into account, providing guidance on how to manage climate risks and adapt to climate change. This includes scaling-up the use of vulnerability and risk assessments, early warning systems, land-use planning and building code regulations, and institutional and legal capacities. Climate change is altering many facets of UN planning and procedures in the field of humanitarian affairs. Officials are urging that humanitarian consequences be taken into account in negotiations for the successor-agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.

Human Rights Several strands in UN law and policy show an increasing connection between the promotion of human rights and the protection of the environment, implicating questions of climate change. Indeed, there is even an effort to advance “the right to a healthy environment” as a human right in itself.[18] One such strand is found in the emergence of the right to development. In 1986, the UN General Assembly proclaimed it an inalienable human right, entitling everyone to “participate in, contribute to, and enjoy economic, social, cultural and political development, in which all human rights and fundamental freedoms can be realized.”[19] Implementation of the declaration has involved both human rights and development agencies. While the declaration on the right to development itself makes


no reference to environmental questions, over time it has promoted debate and action on the human dimensions of environmental sustainability. Another major trend, more generally, is the increased integration of all human rights into development policies and programs. For example, the UN Development Program has moved in a direction which is “holistic and multidimensional, recognizing the mutual dependency and complementarity of sustainable human development and social, economic, cultural, civil and political rights.”[20] The humanrights approach to development has also been bolstered by the work of economists, such as Nobel-prize laureate Amartya Sen, that demonstrates a positive relationship between the exercise of individual freedoms and the advancement of societal development.[21] Finally, the UN is forging direct connections between human rights and climate change. In 2008, for the first time, the Human Rights Council expressed concern that “climate change poses an immediate and far-reaching threat to people and communities around the world and has implications for the full enjoyment of human rights.”[22] It requested the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, in consultation with states, bodies such as the IPCC and other stakeholders, to prepare a detailed analytical study of the relationship between climate change and human rights. In its 2009 session, the Human Rights Council endorsed this report and adopted a further resolution on human rights and climate change – one which encourages the involvement of human rights officials in the preparations for the conference on the UNFCCC.[23] Civil society groups are also beginning to characterize climate change in terms of human rights. The Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), for example, observes that “Global warming threatens all of humanity with the very harms human rights were intended to protect, such as life, health, property, culture, means of subsistence, residence and movement.”[24] CIEL collects case studies that highlight the human rights impact of climate change on indigenous and vulnerable populations, and pursues advocacy opportunities in the context of the UNFCCC. Thus, UN law and policy in the field of human rights is being linked to UN law and policy in the field of sustainable development, and this is encouraging a new focus in the area of climate change.

Development As is clear from the foregoing discussion, the United Nations policy objective of “development” is now often construed in terms of sustainability. “Sustainable Development” is being advanced both conceptually and pragmatically within international law and institutions. A few UN initiatives will be mentioned to indicate how the issue of climate change is taken up in this context. In a report entitled Our Common Future, the World Commission on Environment and Development held that “Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable – to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”[25] It is worth noting that the vision which spurred the concept of sustainable development onto the international


agenda was grounded in the linkages between poverty, inequality and environmental degradation. These themes continue to feature in discussions about climate change. The importance of the environment in the development process was also taken up in the Earth Summit. One principle in the Rio Declaration maintains: “In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from it.”[26] A further outcome of the Earth Summit was the establishment of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development.[27] Another policy landmark was the international community’s adoption of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), grounded in “a collective responsibility to uphold principles of human dignity, equality and equity at the global level.”[28] A leading goal is to reduce, by one-half, the proportion of the world’s people whose income is less than one dollar a day and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. With a target date of 2015, other MDGs aim to: achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality and empower women; reduce child mortality; improve maternal health; combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensure environmental sustainability, and develop a global partnership for development. The very presence of an environmental goal in this slate reflects an explicit recognition by world leaders that the environment is a crucial element of development. Moreover, national governments and dozens of international agencies are implementing programs to meet all these objectives; progress is being charted through periodic reports. MDG7, to ensure environmental sustainability, holds within it a target to “integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs; reverse loss of environmental resources.” Under a warning that “immediate action is needed to contain rising greenhouse gas emissions,” the 2008 progress report presents regional data on carbon dioxide emissions.[29] Commenting on the negotiations under the UNFCCC, it notes that mitigating and adapting to climate change will require an infusion of financial resources and investment, as well as technology development and transfer. As a ten-year follow-up to the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janiero, a World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) was held in Johannesburg in AugustSeptember 2002.[30] In preparing for one of the largest conferences ever organized, the UN acknowledged that “progress in implementing sustainable development has been extremely disappointing since the 1992 Earth Summit, with poverty deepening and environmental degradation worsening.” The topics covered at the WSSD ranged from famine to the AIDS epidemic to global warming. The final document that emerged, the WSSD Plan of Implementation, reaffirms commitments to the Rio principles, to Agenda 21 and its program of further implementation, as well as to the Millennium Declaration development goals.[31] This leads to another important point of reference – the annual publication of the widely-cited UN Human Development Report. Each year, the editors at the UN Development Program choose a different theme to highlight an array of statistics related to the Human Development Index and the scale of global deprivation. In 20072008, the theme was Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World.[32] The report underscores how the challenges of climate change may undermine international efforts to reduce poverty. Indeed, “Business-as-usual climate


change points in a clear direction: unprecedented reversal in human development in our lifetime…” The foregoing comments on the plight of poor countries suggest a further question about common but differentiated responsibilities. It is widely held that, in addressing certain international problems, different levels of obligation should apply to nations based on differing levels of wealth and capacity. But how should this be construed in the case of climate change? The role of developing countries – and the appropriate levels of obligation to place upon them – will continue to be a key factor in the negotiations. So, too, will the requisite balance between freedom of economic development and the need for environmental protection. In short, this section on the UN policy objective of development as it relates to climate change highlights broad aspirations along with related ethical and legal tensions.

Peace and Security At first impression, the issue of climate change does not seem to fit in a discussion of UN objectives on peace and security. However, in an unprecedented move, the issue was brought before the UN Security Council for discussion. An official press release dated 17 April 2007 begins: With scientists predicting that land and water resources will gradually become more scarce in the coming years, and that global warming may irreversibly alter the face of the planet, the United Nations Security Council today held its first-ever debate on the impact of climate change on security…[33] The day-long meeting was called by the United Kingdom, whose Foreign Secretary argued that the Council’s responsibility was the maintenance of international peace and security, and climate change exacerbated many threats. These included conflicts over access to energy, water and food. Further risks related to potential migration on an unprecedented scale because of flooding, disease and famine. The Foreign Secretary urged the international community to recognize there was a security impact from climate change, and to begin building a shared understanding of the relationship between energy, security and climate. To be sure, a number of representatives participating in the debate expressed doubt about whether the Security Council was the proper forum to discuss climate change. China’s representative maintained that the issue should be viewed as one of sustainable development, which has arrangements in place to encourage action. Pakistan’s representative, speaking on behalf of the “Group of 77” developing countries, argued that the ever-increasing encroachment of the Security Council on the roles and responsibilities of the other main UN organs constituted a distortion of the principles and purposes of the UN Charter, infringed on the authority of the other bodies and compromised the rights of the Organization’s wider membership. However, the representative of Singapore noted that climate change was an immediate global challenge, whose effects were transboundary and multifaceted. As such, the


Security Council must be prepared to play some role in any eventual impact that climate change may have on international peace and security. Countries of the Pacific Island Forum were particularly supportive of such discussions, as already some of their communities are being relocated due to sea level rises. Indeed, during a General Assembly meeting in 2008, they announced plans to present a draft resolution on the subject.[34] The resolution is expected to call for further investigation of the threat posed by global warming to international peace and security, and for cooperation between the General Assembly and Security Council to address any problems identified. In conclusion, while climate change is currently on the periphery of UN policy related to peace and security, members of the international community are aware of the need to monitor any potential systemic risks that may arise and respond to them. Having reviewed some of the influences of climate change on UN policies in key areas, this article concludes with a few observations about upcoming initiatives.

CONCLUSION The United Nations has proclaimed 2009 “The Year of Climate Change.” A highlight includes plans for an international summit in New York in the autumn. But the crowning achievement rests with the successful conclusion of the Copenhagen conference at the end of the year, where important new global commitments on climate change are expected. This “Year of Climate Change” will have far-reaching implications for UN law and policy in each of the five areas outlined above. Here, it may be helpful to indicate just a few of the trends that will influence the climate change debate in 2009 and beyond. First, the UN is focusing high-level attention on a comprehensive response to climate change. The negotiation of a new global instrument has provided an important rallying point. The UN has launched “an unprecedented coordination effort bringing together all the multilateral institutions that are part of the United Nations system to develop a strategic, coherent and operational framework to support the intergovernmentally agreed decisions within the UNFCCC.”[35] Just some of the bodies and agencies involved in this effort include the General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council, various regional Economic Commissions, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the UN Development Program, the Global Environment Facility, the World Meteorological Organization, the UN Environment Program, the UN Conference on Trade and Development, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and the World Bank. This climate action framework focuses on climate knowledge, including scientific assessments and monitoring; adaptation; capacity building; financing mitigation and adaptation action; reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation; technology transfer, and support of global, regional and national action. Second, there are heightened expectations for global support and action. The executive secretary of the UNFCCC, a key official in the negotiations, has noted four essential elements for international agreement in Copenhagen:[36]


1. How much are the industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases? 2. How much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions? 3. How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed? 4. How is that money going to be managed? A past obstacle to progress in this field was the lack of support by the US government under the Bush administration. But, as has been widely reported in the media, “within weeks of taking office, President Barack Obama has radically shifted the global equation, placing the United States at the forefront of the international climate effort and raising hopes that an effective international accord might be possible.”[37] Significant dialogue is also taking place with developing countries such as China and India. Third, interest in the results of this process is expanding over a range of stakeholders. For example, the “green movement” has galvanized millions of consumers; “ecological intelligence” in purchasing decisions has been hailed as one of the top global trends of the future.[38] The private sector is also watching the climate debate carefully, realizing it will affect business operations as well as the provision of goods and services. It will also influence regulatory compliance programs and various corporate social responsibility initiatives. But there is also a significant strategic shift: companies are increasingly seeking to exploit potential marketing and technological advantages, building environmental factors into their core decision-making.[39] Moreover, civil society groups involved in a wide range of advocacy efforts are drawing connections to climate change issues. Such developments have generated greater media coverage, which will likely translate into greater political attention and resolve at the global level. Finally, there is a growing conviction that the economy and the environment must be addressed together. Given the current global financial crisis, this is no small matter. A few years ago while he was still serving as UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Prime Minister Gordon Brown observed: Environmental issues -- including climate change -- have traditionally been placed in a category separate from the economy and from economic policy. But this is no longer tenable. Across a range of environmental issues – from soil erosion to the depletion of marine stocks, from water scarcity to air pollution – it is clear now not just that economic activity is their cause, but that these problems in themselves threaten future economic activity and growth.[40] Such cautions remain in order. However, on the positive side, it is interesting that today’s stimulus and recovery plans embrace environmental sustainability and green technologies as critical elements of economic success. Indeed, the UN SecretaryGeneral has recently asserted that, “The economic crisis can only truly be solved if new approaches on climate and energy lead the way.”


In a difficult economic downturn, concerns are obviously raised that we cannot afford to take measures to protect the environment and guard against climate change. This brief review of global impacts -- in the areas of international law, humanitarian affairs, human rights, development, and peace and security -- suggests only one conclusion: we cannot afford not to act.

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5

6. 7. 8.

9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20.

The gateway to the UN system’s work on climate change, which provides a comprehensive range of information and reports from a variety of bodies, is available at www.un.org/climatechange. UN Chief Executives Board for Coordination, Acting on Climate Change: The UN System Delivering as One, November 2008, p. 7. Indeed these five areas, although in reverse order starting with peace and security, form the headline links on the United Nations website; see www.un.org. See www.ipcc/ch for copies of reports and supporting data. J. Houghton, Global Warming, Climate Change and Sustainability, The John Ray Initiative Briefing Paper 14, 3rd ed. (Jan. 2009), p. 7. Sir John Houghton, CBE FRS, was co-chairman of the Scientific Assessment for the IPCC from 1988-2002, and previously Chief Executive of the Meteorological Office in the UK and Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Oxford. He serves as President of the John Ray Initiative, an educational charity that explores links between science, environment and Christian faith. Stockholm Declaration, reprinted in 11 International Legal Materials 1416 (1972). The UNEP manages programs in areas such as environmental assessment, atmosphere, chemicals, land, biodiversity, and energy; see www.unep.org. UNCED Doc. A/CONF.151/26/Rev. 1 (93.I.8), 3 vols. Two general works analyzing these developments, including the precautionary principle, are A. Boyle and D. Freestone (eds.), International Law and Sustainable Development: Past Achievement and Future Challenges, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999, and A. Kiss and D. Shelton, International Environmental Law, 3rd ed., Boston: Brill Publishing, 2004. Agenda 21, UNCED Doc. A/CONF/151/4 (1992). See www.unfccc.int/. See www.unfccc/kyoto_protocol/. Helpful links to the latest status of Copenhagen preparations rare available on www.un.org/climatechange. For general information, see http://www.un.org/en/humanitarian/ . Submission by the International Organization for Migration, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and the UN University to the 5th Session of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention, 6 February 2009. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees is mandated to lead and coordinate international action to protect refugees and resolve refugee problems; see www.unhcr.org. Submission by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees to the 6th Session of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention, 15 May 2009. See the activities related to the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction at www.unisdr.org, which has a special program on climate change. See a summary of relevant documents prepared by the International Network for Economic, Social and Cultural Rights at www.escr-net.org. Declaration on the Right to Development, GA Res. 41/28, adopted 4 Dec. 1986. For comprehensive information on UN activities in the field of human rights, see www.ohchr.org “Integrating Human Rights with Sustainable Human Development,” A UNDP Policy Document, January 1998. For further analysis of this trend, see P. Alston and M. Robinson (eds.), Human Rights and Development: Towards Mutual Reinforcement, Oxford: Oxford University Press,


21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29.

30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39.

40.

2005. A. Sen, Development as Freedom, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999. A/HRC/7/L.21/Rev.1, 26 March 2008. A/HRC/10/L.30, 27 March 2009; the report is document A/HRC/10/61, 15 Jan. 2009. See www.ciel.org/Hre/HRE_GlobalWarming.html, which also provides links to a short primer on global warming and human rights. The World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University Press,1987, p. 8. Rio Declaration, Principle 4; see above note 7. The Commission on Sustainable Development’s mandate is set forth in GA Res. 47/191 (1992); for current activities in diverse areas, see www.un.org/esa/sustdev. UN Millennium Declaration, UN Doc. A/RES/55/2, adopted 8 Sept. 2000, par. 2. The main goal is set out in par. 19. The progress toward the implementation of the UN Millennium Declaration is elaborated in a series of reports of the Secretary-General, the latest one dated 11 Sept. 2008. This and a wide range of other assessments are available at www.mdgs.un.org. Regarding sustainability goals, see also www.unep.org. The official UN website is www.johannesburgsummit.org. “World Summit on Sustainable Development Plan of Implementation,” Sec. I, Introduction. The annual UNDP Human Development Reports are available online at www.undp.org. Security Council press release issued by the UN Department of Public Information, SC/9000, 17 April 2007. UN News Service, “Climate Change Threatens International Peace, Pacific Island States Tell UN Debate,” 26 September 2008. Acting on Climate Change: The UN System Delivering as One, above note 2, at p. 5. M. von Bülow, “The Essentials in Copenhagen,” article summarizing interview with Yvo de Boer, Environment & Energy Publishing, 16 March 2009. E. Rosenthal, “Obama’s Backing Raises Hopes for Climate Pact,” International Herald Tribune, 1 March 2009. B. Walsh, “Ten Ideas Changing the World Right Now,” Time Annual Special Issue, March 2009. See, for example, D. C. Esty and A. S. Winston, Green to Gold: How Smart Companies Use Environmental Strategy to Innovate, Create Value, and Build Competitive Advantage,” New Haven: Yale University Press, 2006. A leading global trade association in this area, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, has a “Countdown to Copenhagen” section on its website, www.wbcsd.org. Address to the Energy and Environment Ministerial Roundtable, 15 March 2005, quoted in Houghton, above note 5, at p. 11.


Economic Consequences Of Climate Change Dr. János Szlávik, Dr. Miklós Füle Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Department of Environmental Economics & Law, H-1111 Budapest, Stoczek u. 2., Hungary Tel: (+36) 1 4631111, [email protected], [email protected] Abstract. Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims. Keywords: Climate Change, Environmental Protection, Market Impact, Energy, Green House Gas Emissions PACS: 89.60.-k, 89.65.-s, 92.70.-j

MARKET IMPACTS FOR REDUCTION OF GHG EMISSIONS Even though the climate conflict resulting from GHG emissions has become evident by the nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because in this case, measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth[1-12]. Problems like acid rain, resulting from pollution could usually be solved by „end of pipe” methods, creating a new market. Substances destroying the ozone layer could be substituted with others, sometimes made by the same sector. Catalysts cleaned exhaust fumes of cars, creating yet another market for car manufacturers.


In the case of GHG emissions, however, the problem cannot be solved by such a market-friendly approach (except for aforestation to create assimilation capacity). Any solution violates existing basic market interests. Decreasing CO2 emissions by increasing energy efficiency may violate the interests of oil companies. Renewable energy sources will not gain ground because of the relatively low price of fossil fuels.

Energy Supply There are numerous technical solutions for increasing the efficiency of energy production. Practical implementation, however, depends on the interdependencies between investments increasing efficiency and present energy production costs. With lower energy prices, energy efficiency investments may not be economical, since energy production is in a special situation compared to other sectors. While a company making computers or household appliances has a market incentive for development, the end product remains relatively unchanged by development in the energy sector. In connection to climate change a special resource, human labor must be analyzed. The reader may ask why human labor is listed on the supply side of the equation. The reason is that human labor, as an economic factor can be considered renewable. If the share of human labor increases as a result of an investment, the positive effects are twofold. The first effect is environmental. Human labor leads to the substitution of non-renewable material and energy consumption. On the other hand, decreasing unemployment has positive social effects. (The material and energy demand of renewing human labor is a question of energy demand.) At present, the costs of human labor are increased by taxes. Scandinavian countries began restructuring this system in the nineties. They intended – and still intend – to achieve the twofold positive effects by introducing the energy and coal tax and decreasing taxes on human labor. Germany has begun to take similar steps. The initiative instills hope, but results are limited. Human labor is overtaxed with low average wages in Hungary as well. Among other things, this remains a barrier to the spreading of environmentally friendly technologies that use more human labor and less energy and other materials in agriculture, for example.

Energy Demand Managing the demand side is also crucial in the economic solutions for reducing GHG emissions. While it is in the interest of the manufacturers of products and services to dynamically increase the amount of goods sold and the profit realized, the consumer side strives to meet their needs with as low costs as possible. Consumer needs related to energy are satisfied indirectly through goods. The energy efficiency of these goods is therefore extremely important.


TABLE 2: Possibilities for increasing energy efficiency. Source: Tietenberg: Environmental and Natural Resource Economics (2003), p.564. Car Mileage Flat 1000 Refrigerator miles/gallon Joule/m2 kWh/nap Average model New model Best model Best prototype

18 27 50 77

190 110 68 11

4 3 2 1

Gas Boiler million Joules/day 210 180 140 110

Air Conditioner kWh/day 10 7 5 3

As can be seen in Table 2, there are huge opportunities for increasing energy efficiency. In the energy consumption of flats, the difference between an average flat and the best prototype is tenfold. This area is exceptionally important in GHG emission reduction since the importance of the energy consumption of flats is growing. The demand for air conditioning in Europe has been growing in recent years as a result of rising summer temperatures. In several countries, the peak of electricity consumption was not in the winter, but in the summer in the nineties.

Sectoral Effects The EU, giving special emphasis to climate policy has made estimations as to how different sectors contribute to the 8% decrease set in international agreements. The results are shown in Table 3. TABLE 3. Estimating the change in GHG emissions between 1990-2010 in the EU Source: Sustainable development strategy of the EU CO2 equivalent (Mt) Energy supply Industry Transport Households Services (public and private) Agriculture Waste

1990 1421.7 757.1 753.1 447.5 175.6 417 166.4

2010 1276.6 686.1 1098.2 440 188.9 397.6 137.3

Increase -10.2% -9.4% 45.8% -1.7% 7.6% -4.7% -17.5%

Total

4138.3

4224.8

2.1%

The table shows that, surprisingly, there will be a 2.1% increase instead of decrease in the EU. This is mainly caused by the 45.8% increase of GHG emissions in transport. The reaction of the Austrian Automobile Association, cited below, is very interesting: Verkehrschlub Österreich (VCÖ) plans to decrease CO2-emissions from


transport by 7.5 million tons until 2010 with its climate protection program. The program consists of modifying taxes from an ecological standpoint, decreasing average fuel consumption and increasing the number of passengers using public transport. Without any change, however, CO2 emissions will be three times the 1990 level. “Transport is the single largest CO2 emission source, yet everybody pretends it has nothing to do with climate protection” - said Wolfgang Rauch, representing the research institute of VCÖ. This cannot be changed without incentives. The taxes on vehicles should be redesigned based on fuel consumption. According to the proposal of VCÖ, a climate protection contribution should be paid: seven cents for every liter of gasoline and ten for every liter of diesel fuel. Austria will only be able to fulfill its climate protection tasks if it provides incentives for using public transport and bicycles. “Public transport will only gain ground if the number and quality of services and connections increases” – Rauch said. (APA – Bécs Ismertető: MTI – Environmental protection newsletter, 2005.01.26.) As the Austrian example shows, the problem is hard to solve without restructuring transport, which is neglected from a GHG perspective. In Hungary, transport is the third largest GHG emitter. The Long Term Transport Policy Concept has also been created. The Department of Environmental Economics at BME has conducted strategic environmental assessment of the document (and related programs) and has come to the conclusion that the Concept contains sustainable development as a strategic goal on a theoretical level as well as goals for the development of public transport and the road network. The goals do not appear in programs and funding, highway development and increasing road traffic are dominant. GHG emission reductions do not appear in the documents, even on a theoretical level. Seeing the examples of Austria and the EU, these shortcomings are even more apparent. The EU has published its Green Paper on climate change in 2007. The conclusions it contains are the following: ”Many economic sectors depend on climatic conditions and will feel the consequences of climate change on their activities and business directly: agriculture, forestry, fisheries, beach and skiing tourism, and health. Reduced water availability, wind damages, higher temperatures, increased bush fires and grater disease pressure will lead to damage to forests. Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events such as storms, severe precipitation events, sea floods and flash foods, droughts, forest fires, landslides cause damage to buildings, transport and industrial infrastructure and consequently impact indirectly on financial services and insurance sectors. Even damage outside the EU could significantly affect its economy, e.g. reduced timber supply to European processing industries.”

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGES Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the


environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state of the art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle the emphasis is on prevention.

Analyzing the Cost Effectiveness of Adaptation The method of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) may be more suitable for decisions regarding climate change than Cost-benefit Analysis. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis is closely connected to cost-benefit analysis. In cases where determining environmental benefit economically is uncertain, other methods (natural sciences, technical methods) are used. The objective of CEA is to find the most cost-effective solution(s). The baseline can be climate analysis, health analysis, technology analysis, etc. It is important for the aims to correspond to long term climate strategy. When the appropriate and clear aim has been determined, the economical analysis based on it can reveal a lot about associated costs. Case studies have proven that costs can be very sensitive to environmental regulation methods. For example, the same measure of pollution reduction can be achieved at a much lower cost using flexible economic regulations instead of rigid emission norms. In the microeconomic analysis of environmental economics it can be proven that in the case of flat Marginal External Cost curve, such as GHG emission reduction it is expedient to use taxes and other market measures instead of norms. An important statement of the Hungarian National Climate Change Policy: It is necessary to determine an emission reduction course for the different sectors reaching to 2050 that enable gradual change and do not put emitters in a difficult position in the far future because of less strict self-control measures in the near future in the given sector (NES). The following statement has been taken from the Stern report: “The costs of stabilizing the climate are significant but manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly.” [2] It is clear that we should not postpone implementing climate policy. At present, the intensity of the effects of externalities related to GHG emissions in Hungary are relatively low, the MEC curve is flat (MEC1).


FIGURE 1: MEC curves of different climate strategies, Source: Own work.

In this case, the economically optimal level of externalities (Q*1) allows considerable growth. The rise of the curve is heavily modified by the chosen methods and the time taken to initiate the programs. Any delays will increase damages and risks as shown by the increased rise of the curve (MEC2; Q*2). In this case, delayed actions (enforced politically) will be coupled with higher costs and profit losses, resulting in growing economical, social and political resistance. Therefore, intervention can only be done through radical direct means. Timely action keeps the MEC curve flat. The GHG emission reduction goals can be reached with lower costs and higher private benefits. The Stern review on the economics of climate change concludes that adaptation could reduce the costs, provided policies are put in place to overcome obstacles to private action. Market forces alone are unlikely to lead to efficient adaptation because of a certain degree of uncertainty in the climate projections and lack of financial resources. Cost-effective adaptation is therefore the most appropriate solution. Early action will bring clear economic benefits by anticipating potential damages and minimizing threats to ecosystems, human health, economic development, property and infrastructure. Furthermore competitive advantages could be gained for European companies that are leading in adaptation strategies and technologies. If there is no early policy response, the EU and its Member States may be forced into reactive unplanned adaptation, often abruptly as a response to increasingly frequent crises and disasters, which will prove much more costly and also threaten Europe’s social and economic systems and its security. For impacts where we have also enough confidence in the forecasts, adaptation must therefore start now. Economical and social conflicts arise with socially efficient solutions as well since they require structural reorganization and violate the interests of fossil energy providers. End users (households) are also forced to change, but if their energy saving investments are subsidized, they will become political supporters of these programs. (see the success of the Panel program, for example.) Subsidies are market-conform if they only finance positive externalities both theoretically (Pigou) and in practice.


As an added benefit, these energy efficiency investments generate economical growth in the short and medium term. This generated economical growth contributes to sustainability, however since they remove burdens from the shoulders of future generations. Whether increasing energy efficiency will increase or decrease the growth of GDP in 10-15 years is a question for a separate analysis. It is worth noting that one of the shortcomings of the climate strategy of the EU is that it does not address the topic of GDP versus welfare macro indicators. The effects of increased energy efficiency and decreased use of non-renewable resources and human labor on economic growth is subject to strategic analysis. In the debate on labor duties no breakthrough has been made in the favor of human labor, not to mention practical implementation. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims. The lack of government guarantees for energy efficiency projects is a serious financial obstacle. At the same time, governments provide considerable guarantees for private investments in electricity production. Governments should consider providing guarantees for energy efficiency investments to promote risk sharing, extending loans and the fair participation of energy management consultancies well provided with capital. (It is worth noting that in the unfolding global economic crisis, the development of such programs has begun.)

THE MOST IMPORTANT BARRIERS OF COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS IN HUNGARY One of the most efficient means of preventing climate change is the improvement of energy efficiency (considering both production and consumption). Presently there are very high losses of energy encountered and therefore cost efficiency could result in considerable savings in increasing the efficiency of energy consumption. In Hungary the „win-win” solutions cannot be applied mostly due to the low income of the citizens that will not allow the investment of the starting-stock not even into the most advantageous construction. (In this case one could propose the securing or bank credit with the support of state guarantee or other means of capital allowance.) In the next two-three decades 10-30% improvement of energy efficiency could be achieved with minimum cost to society. On the long run the potential energy-efficiency could be even higher. In Hungary there are several options for decreasing energy consumption in a cost-efficient way. Nevertheless, the implementation of the respective measures depends highly on the trends of economic policy and technical development, and also on the inflow of operative capital, which will be needed for these developments. If coal or coal-energy were taxed as a strategy of emissionreduction policy, then this would result in a substantial increase of the tax-income of the state and the redistribution of this extra income would highly define the cost of prevention.


The increasing of the ration of renewable sources of energy could result in socially economic solution only along with the improvement of cost-efficiency. If the above mentioned strategies were applied (and our calculations have proven that they can be economically implemented) then global sustainability would be served by greenhouse gas emission-reduction in such a way that it might also increase the potential living standard of the ’present generation’. The expected economical and social effects of climate policy are summarized in Tables 4 and 5. Table 4: Economic effects of GHG emission reduction and adaptation measures. Source: Own work Mitigation ”Avoiding the Unmanageable”

Adaptation ”Managing the Unavoidable”

Economic Growth

- Average cost GDP 1% (standard deviation (-2)%-(+5)% (world average) “N.Stern” - Low GDP increasing effect in Hungary until 2025

- After 2025 the increase in energy efficiency (production and especially consumption) will decrease GDP. However, welfare indicators (ISEW, GPI) may increase.

Economic Equilibrium “State Budget”

- The price of coal (social cost: $85/t) $2.5 trillon income (world) “N.Stern”

- Budgetary expenditures are lowered by pricing at the social cost (e.g. Transport), improving budget balance

Employment

- If coal is priced at the social cost, employment-stimulating effect (on human labor)

- Using social costs makes human labor less expensive in comparison, increases employment

Technology Policy

- New technologies are more expensive at the start (learning curve)

- Mass dissemination of new technologies (energy production and usage) lowers costs below the costs of conventional Technologies.

Economic Processes


TABLE 5. Social Effects of GHG Emission Reduction and Adaptation Measures. Source: Own work. Social Processes

Mitigation

Adaptation - Adaptation to the possible effects of climate change can reduce health damage

Human Health

- Due to heat waves medical costs can reach 0,5 - 1 % of GDP. „N.Stern”

Social and Political Security

- Increasing energy prices may increase the - Starting energy efficiency possible conflicts between the population programs (financed by state and governments. budget) may decrease social - The social cost of carbon can lead to conflicts and can cause conflicts between energy producers and corresponding interest governments. between population and - Pressure to soften the social cost of government in the long term. carbon.

Migration

- The increasing sea level can result in the relocation of 250 million people by 2050. - Due to the effective adaptation “N.Stern” no significant migration can - Hungary can be involved as a possible be expected. destination of migration.

- The increasing share of biofuels can slightly decreases rural migration. Regional Differences - Industrial technologies require little human labor thus significant growth in employment rate can not be expected.

- Increased energy efficiency and decreased human labor taxes may enhance the economic efficiency of agro-environmental programs and keeping rural population.

Analyzing the economical impacts of the climate change (firstly taking notice of the European and Hungarian aspects), as a summary we can make the following statements: • The climate change is a phenomenon related with energy production and development, which are dominant factors of the economy, consequently climate change can only be analyzed by complex and versatile tools. • The economic and social impacts of the climate change are already perceptible in these days, although these are not significant enough to stimulate/encourage economic and political decision-makers to take immediate and determining steps to reduce GHG emission. • The procrastination increases the intensity of negative impacts and the costs of reduction of GHG emission and adaptation will probably increase so fast that the cost effective solutions may become doubtful.


REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.

Hungarian Climate Change Strategy Budapest, KvVM 2007. Stern Review: The economics of climate change 2006 Sigma XI – UN: Confornting climate change: avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable February 2007 VAHAVA Review KvVM – MTA Budapest 2004-2007 (About the Strategic Environmental Monitoring of the Hungarian Transport Policy) Kutatási Jelentés, GKM, 2004. Dócsné Balogh Zsuzsanna: A költség-haszon, a költség-hatékony és értékelemzés alkalmazása a kármentesítés során. (Use of the Cost-Benefit-, Cost-Effective- and Value-Analysis During the Damage Prevention ) KvVM, Budapest 2002. Kerekes Sándor: Tények és kérdőjelek a hazai környezetvédelemben.( Facts and Question Marks (Dilemmas) within the Hungarian Environmental Protection) Info Társadalomtudomány, 52. szám, 2001. Láng István; Csete László; Jolánkai Márton: Az agrárágazatok klímaváltozáshoz való alkalmazkodási stratégiájának áttekintése. (About the Strategy of Agricultural Sector's adaptation to the Climate Change ) VAHAVA Projekt 2005. February Budapest Markandya, A: Az üvegházhatásért felelős gázok korlátozásának közvetlen költségei és hasznai. (Direct Costs and Benefits of the Restriction of the GHG emission ) 1997. UNEP Szlávik János: Fenntartható környezet- és erőforrás-gazdálkodás.( Sustainable Environmental and Resources Management ) KJK-Kerszöv, Budapest, 2005. Ürge Vorsatz; D.; Szlávik J.; Pálvölgyi T.; Füle M.: Fenntartható energiagazdálkodás és környezetvédelem. (Sustainable Energy Management and Environmental Protection ) UNEP/GEF 2002 felhasználásával (Co-editors: dr. Ürge Vorsatz Diana, dr. Szlávik János, dr. Pálvölgyi Tamás, dr Fule Miklos) Economics of GHG mitigation in Hungary (Country study) UNEP-RISO National Laboratory Copenhagen 1999. Tietenberg, Tom: Environmental and Natural Resource Economics (6. Edition), Affison Wesley, New York, 2003


Technology Assessment & Sustainable Development: Information Society & Eastern Europe Gerhard Banse Professor Dr. sc. phil. Gerhard Banse , Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft Herrmann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen Deutschland Tel. (d) +49-(0)7247-82-4871 o. 2501 Fax (d) +49-(0)7247-82-4806 Abstract. This paper shows examples and results of cooperation ITAS has had with institutions in Central and Eastern Europe concerning sustainable development as well as information society knowledge transfer. Presented are necessities, possibilities and experiences regarding mutual knowledge transfer. The starting points in this matter are the integrative concept of sustainability as well as the concept of knowledge resp. information society, both developed by ITAS. Primarily, in this context the particular cultural dimension is clarified. Keywords: Sustainable Development, Information Society, Cultural Dimensions, Innovations, Technology Policy PACS: 89.60.-k, 89.65.-s

INTRODUCTION The Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (Research Center Karlsruhe) is one of the largest science and engineering research institutions in Europe, funded jointly by the Federal Republic of Germany and the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Its research and development program is embedded in the superordinate program structure of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of National Research Centers and concentrates on five research areas: Structure of Matter, Earth and Environment, Health, Energy, and Key Technologies. The Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) creates and communicates knowledge on the impacts of human action and their evaluation in view of the development and use of new technologies. Its work focuses on environmental, economic, social and political-institutional issues. Two of the objectives are: - Normativity and sustainability: ITAS approaches the problem of technology assessment with scientific means. The vision of sustainable development development in the sense of the integrative concept of sustainability developed by ITAS in the Helmholtz context provides well-founded orientation. - Knowledge or information society: The currently most important social development is the radical change in the knowledge structure. This concerns the forms of production, access, distribution and use of knowledge, described by the term “knowledge society”. One the basis of it are radical changes in the field of technology (ICTs).


In the following paper are some examples, results and experiences of cooperation in these fields.

BACKGROUND International Cooperation of ITAS with Institutions of Countries in Central and Eastern Europe In the middle of the 90s was the beginning of closer research cooperation with colleagues especially in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and the Slovak Republic. Research fields are technology assessment, ethics of science and technology, sustainability and knowledge based society or information society respectively. Aims of these “go east” ITAS activities are: - to “watch” institutional and content-related activities in the field of interdisciplinary technology and environmental research (monitoring) in order to create starting points for cooperation opportunities; - bi- and multilateral activities should be carried out to concentrate and combine different conceptual as well as methodological knowledge in the fields of technology risk assessment and environmental research. This mainly concerns - research on theoretical and methodical aspects of technology assessment, risk assessment and environmental research under the influence of ethical interrelations; - knowledge transfer in the field of education (related to both that of natural, technological and economic scientists and of social and human scientists). (Main-)forms of cooperation are lectures, joint conferences, joint projects, joint publications and joint institutions. Examples for this are[1]: - Project “Technology Assessment und Ethics of Science in Central and Eastern European Countries”, together with colleagues from Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovak Republic – 1997/1999 (cf. Banse 1998); - “International Network Cultural Diversity and New Media” (CULTMEDIA), together with colleagues from Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovak Republic, and Spain) – founded in 2002, Prague ,Czech Republic (cf. e. g. Banse 2005); - “Network for Sustainability Strategies, Monitoring and Management in Southern Eastern Europe” (NESSEE) – founded in 2006, Alba Iulia (Romania); - German-Russian Academy of Sustainable Development (based on some institutions in Karlsruhe and Moscow) – founded in 2002, Karlsruhe (f. i. series of conferences “Sustainable Development and Modern Civilisation”, beginning in Moscow 2006); - “International Research Centre for Social Consequences of Scientific and Technological Development and Innovation” – founded 2006, Lomonossov University, Moscow (Russia).

1

The ITAS cooperation with the Budapest University of Technology and Economics (Hungary) and the Florida Institute of Technology (U.S.) in the frame of the “Forum on Sustainable Technological Development” and its results aren’t a topic of this article (cf. e. g. Nelson 2008).


German Research Project “Global Sustainable Development – Perspectives for Germany” The beginning of this project was April 1998. The basis was the so called “integrative concept of sustainable development”: a unit of ecological, economical, social and institutional (political-administrative) components – not the limited perspectives on each of these individual dimensions. The benefits of this approach are (i) constitutive elements of sustainability, (ii) general goals, and (iii) “rules” for sustainable actions (cf. Kopfmueller et al. 2001; cf. also Grunwald/Kopfmueller 2006). To (i): the constitutive elements are: (i1) an intra- and intergenerative justice; (i2) a global dimension; (i3) an anthropocentric approach. To (ii): the general goals of sustainable development are: (ii1) ensuring human existence; (ii2) preserving the potential of society for productivity; (ii3) retaining possibilities for development and action. To (iii): the rules for sustainable development are divided into so called “what rules” and so called “how rules”: (iii1) the “what rules” formulate substantial minimum requirements; examples are “Protection of human health”, “Prevention of unacceptable risks”, “Participation at social processes of decision”; (iii2) the “how rules” characterize the ways of fulfilling these minimum requirements; examples are “Internalization of external coasts” or “limits to indebtedness”.

POLISH-GERMAN WORKSHOPS ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT This was the conceptual basis for some workshops with colleagues of Poland in the field of sustainable development.

The 1st Workshop The 1st workshop was held in October 13 – 15, 2003, in Katowice, Poland. Its subject-matter was “Sustainable Development – from Scientific Research to Political Realization”. It was financial supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The topics of this workshop were: (iii) political strategies of sustainable development (in Poland and Germany); (ii) the role of science, research and education for sustainable development (in general);


(iii) (iv) (v)

field of practice I: sustainable technologies of production; field of practice II: sustainable development – maintenance of substance (of buildings) – monumental protection; education for sustainable development.

For each topic the same number of presentations were given from Poland and from Germany. The Experiences and benefits of this 1st workshop are: - the presentations of the Polish participants are more in an environmental direction, because the presentations of the German participants are more in a social and institutional direction; - the beginning of a good cooperation with the Polish journal “Problemy ekologii” (“Problems of ecology)”; - a book-edition of the “proceedings”: all articles in German (1st book; cf. Banse/Kiepas 2005a) and all articles in Polish (2nd book; cf. Banse/Kiepas 2005b); - the idea of the foundation of the International Centre of Sustainable Development and Information Society (in Polish “Międzynarodowego Centrum Zrównoważonego Rozwoju i Społeczeństwa Informacyjnego”, short CRI) at Silesian University of Katowice; - the idea for the 2nd Polish-German Workshop on Sustainable Development.

Excursus 1: CRI Katowice In October 2004 took place the foundation of the CRI. This centre was on the Polish side supported by the universities’ rector and the deans of four faculties (for social sciences, for linguistics and cultural sciences, for informatics, and for mathematics, physics and chemistry). The German site was represented by the Fraunhofer Application Center for Logistic Systems Planning and Information Systems (short FhG-ALI).[2] The main aim of CRI was the distribution of knowledge about sustainable development and information society and their relationships. Results are: - co-organizer of the 2nd Polish-German Workshop on Sustainable Development (held in Cottbus, Germany; see below); - co-organizer of the round table “Virtuality” (held in September 2005 in Katowice, Poland; see also Kiepas/Sułkowska/Wołek 2009); - co-organizer of the workshop “New Media in the Globalising World. Economic, Social and Cultural Dimensions” (held in December 2005 in Tychy, Poland); The main experience was: It is hard to have a continuous work (to find regional partner for cooperation, to find financing outside of German institutions or Silesian university like regional funds or EU financing). So the future of CRI is open…

The 2nd Workshop The 2nd workshop took place October 25 – 27, 2005, in Cottbus, Germany under the title “Sustainable Development – from Scientific Research to Political Realization”. 2

The reason for this German part of CRI was that I worked in this time in FhG-ALI.


This was deliberately the same title as the 1st workshop, because this workshop was understood as a continuation of the 1st one. A financial support was given once again by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The topics were: (i) field of practice III: agriculture and sustainable development; (ii) field of practice IV: tourism and sustainable development – sustainable tourism;[3] (iii) education for sustainable development. But before the statements and discussion to these topics there were two key notes: “Sustainable Development: political realization and social dialogue” (this key note was related to the German Council of Sustainability) and “ENFORCHANGE – Influence of target-oriented changes of factors of environment on concepts of using soil and forests” (this key note was related to the EU project “Today’s forests for tomorrow’s environment”). Experiences and benefits of the 2nd workshop are: - the presentations of the Polish participants were more in the form of case studies, but the presentations of the German participants were more in a conceptualsystematic manner; - the “proceedings” of this workshop were published in German (cf. Banse/Kiepas 2007) and in Polish (cf. Banse/Kiepas 2009); - first ideas for the 3rd Polish-German workshop (with presentations of colleagues from countries outside of Poland or Germany, especially from Eastern European countries).

Excursus 2: Meeting “Sustainable Agriculture. Basic Problems and Practical Solutions” This meeting took place September 19 – 21, 2007, in Brody (near Poznań), Poland, with participants from Poland and Germany). Ideas discussed are the preparation of a joint conference (possible as 3rd Polish-German Workshop on Sustainable Development), to initialize joint projects in this field, to found a centre of sustainable development for meetings and discussions as a “platform” of cooperation (possible together with the CRI in Katowice), and to establish a network of sustainable development initiatives in Poland or a Polish-German-network.[4]

The 3rd Workshop This workshop is in preparation now. It is planned for November 25 – 27, 2009. The place will be Katowice, Poland, and the preparation takes place by ITAS and Silesian University together with Fraunhofer Centre Middle and Eastern Europe (FhGMOEZ), Leipzig (on the German side) and the Uppersilesian High School of Business (on the Polish side). The topic will be “Sustainable Development – from Scientific 3

4

As a reminder: The beginning of the cooperation between Floriada Tech und ITAS was in June 2002, Eger, Hungary, with the Hungarian-U.S. workshop “Sustainable Tourismus” (in addition with participants from Spain and Germany). Meanwhile this was realized in the form of “German-Polish Network Scientists for Sustainable Development”; cf. http://www.deutsch-polnisches-netzwerk.de.


Research to Political Realization” again. The financial support is still open at the moment. Aims concerning the contents are: (i) New aspects of the concept of sustainable development: - new political and institutional orientations; - directions of innovative solutions; (ii) Problems of implementation of strategies of sustainable development in the fields of - biodiversity, - energy and rational use of resources, - climate change; (iii) Education for sustainable development

Excursus 3: The Cultural Dimension of Sustainable Development The idea of some colleagues at ITAS is for a better understanding of the cultural dimensions of sustainable development that are in two directions: first, culture as a condition for sustainable development, and second, culture as an aim of sustainable development (cf. Banse/Parodi/Schaffer 2009). And: The cultural dimension of sustainable development includes two different main topics, cultural heritage on the one side and specific (sustainable!) patterns of action (patterns of consummation, of traffic, …) on the other side. In most political documents of sustainable development sometimes one sees only declarations (about the role of culture), but generally a lack of reflections in the following two directions (this depends on the understanding of “culture” – as a “fuzzy” term –as norms, values, rules, hopes a. s. o., but also as manners and ways to life and to work too): (i) lack of cultural topics in discussions around sustainable development (mostly environmental, societal, political, … topics); (ii) lack of sustainable development in the discussions around culture (unilateral understanding of culture: art, literature, …). The first analyses in the field of the relationships between sustainable development and culture have two conclusions as a result: - there is a necessity of a “culture of sustainable development”; - there is a necessity of a cultural change in the direction of sustainable development.

THE “SUSTAINABILITY NETWORK FOR INNOVATION” This R&D network for sustainable development was founded in 2008 by the initiative of FhG-MOEZ, Leipzig.[5] The background for it was the BMBF program FONA – Forschung für Nachhaltigkeit (research for sustainability). It is addressed to research institutions and highly innovative small and medium enterprises in Germany and to their adequate partners in Central and Eastern Europe. ITAS is one of the founding institutions. The main goals of this network are:

5

Cf. http://www.moez.fraunhofer.de.


- to strengthen the cooperation between German research institutions and partners from Central and Eastern Europe; - to bring together the competencies of its members and support knowledge and technology transfer, particularly in the applied research The common topic is sustainable development in its relationship to environment, climate and energy. The founder members beside ITAS and FhG-MOEZ are: - LMBV international (Lausitzer und Mitteldeutsche BergbauVerwaltungsgesellschaft) with competencies in the field of recultivation of former surface mining areas; - the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy; - the Institute of Soil Science and Site Ecology of Dresden University of Technology. The subjects of this network are the following: - soil remediation; - land restoration; - sustainable forest management; - sustainable remediation of mining areas; - energy efficiency and energy security; - technology assessment in this domains.

RESEARCH ON INFORMATION SOCIETY - EXAMPLES In the following are given only information on some publications related to research activities in the field of the so called Information Society together with colleagues and/or institutions with Eastern European countries (in addition to the following cf. Banse/Fobel/Kiepas 2001; Bechmann/Hronszky 2003; Bechmann/Krings/Rader 2003).

“Towards the Information Society” The final activity of the project “Technology Assessment und Ethics of Science in Central and Eastern European Countries” (see above 2.1) was the workshop “From an Information Society to a Knowledge Society: Democracy – Participation – Technology Assessment”, held February 3 – 5, 1999, in Prague, Czech Republic, with participants from seven European countries. The conference program was thematically and organizationally divided into three parts (cf. Banse/Langenbach/Machleidt 2000): - more general and conceptual considerations; - application areas; - evaluation process. Objectives of the conference are: - to express and illustrate various viewpoints and attitudes to the problems of the presented subject matter;


- to make use of the feedback effects, i. e. to attain the exchange of experience and information.

“Innovations for an e-Society” This book is the result of the international congress “Innovations for an e-Society. Challenges for Technology Assessment”, held October 17 – 19, 2001, in Berlin with participants from 24 European and non-European countries (cf. Banse/Grunwald/Rader 2002). Some of its goals are: - investigation of the potential effects and implications of Information- and Communications Technologies in political, economic, societal, cultural and environmental respects; - analysis of the institutional assumptions and basic conditions which are necessary or desirable to shape a sustainable and democratic “e-society”; - enabling mutual learning processes and contributions to improving mutual understanding beyond cultural differences in handling technology and technisation, especially concerning culturally different concepts of an e-society.

“Visions of Information Society 2016” In Katowice, June 07 – 09, 2006, the German-Polish conference “Visions of Information Society 2016” took place with participants from five European countries, among them some students from Poland and Germany (cf. Banse/Kiepas 2008). The background was the debate about the concept of information society mostly is a debate in a technological or economical direction (that means in terms of efficiency), but not (or rarely) about the social, cultural, human, … aspects or dimensions. So the goals are: - discuss on technical and non-technical aspects of information society; - debate on perspectives and visions of a sustainable information society; - discuss about the requirements in the direction of education, policy making, law, … (that was the reason that there were some thematic working groups, among them to work and economy, to education and e-learning, to culture and art, to e-security, to European dimensions).

STUDIES IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL POLICY The background of this activity was not a conference or a common project but to summarize and bring together specific conceptual considerations and research results from some Eastern European countries. The necessity for interdisciplinary studies in the field of technology, innovation and environment in countries of Central and Eastern Europe is due to the following “boundary conditions”: (i) there are enormous ecological and economic technology-induced problems and burdens from the contaminated sites resulting from technology utilisation in the fields of energy generation, chemical industry, agriculture as well as transport;


(ii) (iii) (iv)

there are a number of decisions to be made regarding technical solutions, which can modify, supplement or substitute currently used technologies or on new solutions to be developed and utilised; there is a need for overview and orientation knowledge as a basis for technology decisions in politics, economy and science (especially against the background of the restructuring of the whole industrial basis); it is necessary to sensitise the general public regarding the consequences of technical developments and their utilisation (also against the background of previously refused opportunities of participation and discussion).

One of the results in this field is the publication “Technological and Environmental Policy. Studies in Eastern Europe” (cf. Banse 2007). In addition to Chapter 1, “Technology Assessment and Sustainability”, the following articles are included: - V. I. Danilov-Danilian (Russia): Assessment of Technology and Economic Projects from the Standpoint of Global Ecology; - Ildiko Tulbure (Romania): The Role of Technology Assessment for Sustainable Development. A Chance for the Future Strategies in Romania; - Andrzej Papuziński (Poland): Sustainable Development as a Principle in Polish Environmental Policy.

CONCLUSION All articles show the following problems (and in the same time this is a result of my research and a summary of this paper): - political power constellations are changing as the basic economic conditions do, potentials of science were reorganized or newly organized just as the administrative bodies on state and regional levels; - thus, both political aims and priorities and opportunities for social interference and action change as well (occasionally very quickly); - consequently, there was (and is) often a lack of time and continuity required for consolidation and differentiation processes (i.e. of sustainable development and technology assessment).

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Banse, G. (eds.) (1998): Technikfolgenbeurteilung und Wissenschaftsethik in Ländern Ostmitteleuropas [Technology Assessment and Ethics of Science in Eastmiddle European Countries]. 2 vol. Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler (in German) Banse, G. (eds.) (2005): Neue Kultur(en) durch Neue Medien(?). Das Beispiel Internet [New Culture(s) by the Use of New Media(?). The Example of the Internet]. Berlin (in German) Banse, G. (eds.) (2007): Technological and Environmental Policy. Studies in Eastern Europe. Berlin Banse, G.; Fobel, P.; Kiepas, A. (eds.) (2001): Etika a informačná spoločnosť [Ethics and Information Society]. Banská Bystrica (in Slovak.) Banse, G.; Grunwald, A.; Rader, M. (eds.) (2002): Innovations for an e-Society. Challenges for Technology Assessment. Berlin


6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17.

18.

Banse, G.; Kiepas, A. (eds.) (2005): Nachhaltige Entwicklung: Von der wissenschaftlichen Forschung zur politischen Umsetzung [Sustainable Development. From Scientific Research to Political Realization]. Berlin (in German) Banse, G.; Kiepas, A. (eds.) (2005b): Zrównoważony rozwój: Od naukowego badania do politycznej strategii [Sustainable Development. From Scientific Research to Political Realization]. Berlin (in Polish) Banse, G.; Kiepas, A. (eds.) (2007): Nachhaltige Entwicklung in Polen und Deutschland. Landwirtschaft – Tourismus – Bildung [Sustainable Development in Poland and Germany. Agriculture – Tourism – Education]. Berlin (in German) Banse, G.; Kiepas, A. (eds.) (2008): Visionen der Informationsgesellschaft 2016 [Visions of Information Society 2016]. Berlin (in German, some parts in English) Banse, G.; Kiepas, A. (eds.) (2009): Zrównoważony rozwój: Od naukowego badania do politycznej strategii. Rolnictwo – turystyka – edukacja [Sustainable Development in Poland and Germany. Agriculture – Tourism – Education]]. Berlin (in Polish) Banse, G.; Langenbach, Chr. J.; Machleidt, P. (eds.) (2000): Towards the Information Society. The Case of Central and Eastern European Countries. Berlin u. a. Banse, G.; Parodi, O.; Schaffer, A. (eds.) (2009): Interdependenzen zwischen kulturellem Wandel und nachhaltiger Entwicklung [Interdependencies between Cultural Change and Sustainable Development]. Karlsruhe (in print; in German) Bechmann, G.; Hronszky, I. (eds.) (2003): Expertise and its Interfaces. The Tense Relationship of Science and Politics. Berlin Bechmann, G.; Krings, B.-J.; Rader, M. (eds.) (2003): Across the Divide. Work, Organization and Social Exclusion in the European Information Society. Berlin Grunwald, A.; Kopfmueller, J. (2006): Nachhaltigkeit [Sustainability]. Frankfurt am Main/New York (in German) Kiepas, A.; Sułkowska, M.; Wołek, M. (eds.) (2009): Człowiek a światy virtualne [Human and Virtual World]. Katowice (in Polish) Kopfmueller, J.; Brandl, V.; Jörissen, J.; Paetau, M.; Banse, G.; Coenen, R.; Grunwald, A. (2001): Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrachtet. Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren [Sustainable Development in an Integrative View. Constitutive Elements, Rules, Indicators]. Berlin (in German) Nelson, G. (2008): Introduction. In: Nelson, G.; Hronsky, I. (eds.): An International Forum on Sustainability. Budapest, pp. 5-9


China’s Technology Policies Related to Sustainable Environment Fan Chunliang Professor, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhong Guan Cun Dong Lu No. 55, Beijing, 100190, P.R. China, 8610+62542624, [email protected], www.casipm.ac.cn Abstract. Environment development is a big challenge for China. This paper discusses the content and role of technology policies related to sustainable environment and makes some suggestions for their future development Key Words: Technology policies, Sustainable Environment, China PACS: 89.60.-k, 89.65.-s

INTRODUCTION: THE GENERAL SITUATION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION IN CHINA The idea of Sustainable Development was introduced into China shortly after it was accepted by the United Nations (UN). Since then China has made great progress in sustainable development[1-4]. In 1987, Our Common Future put forward a new idea for sustainable development “…… to meet the needs for contemporary people, but not constitute a threat development for meeting the needs of later generations. ” In 1992, the UN Conference of Environmental Development accepted the theory of sustainable development and worked out the 21st Century Agenda. In 1994, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China formally approved the China 21st Century Agenda——the White Book of Population, Environment and Development of China. Since then, China has been one of the first countries to implement the UN 21st Century Agenda. The target of the China 21st Century Agenda is “to set up the sustainable developmental economic system, social system and keep related with sustainable utilization of resources and environmental base”. The China 21st Century Agenda is in keeping with the UN 21st Century Agenda. Based on the actual situation in China, it converged on the main programs which were on going and were to be implemented from every government department. The content included a general strategy of sustainable development, social and economic sustainable development, the suitable utilization and conservation of resources and environment. In 1996, China implemented preferential projects of China 21st Century Agenda, which included 62 projects in 9 fields. In 1996, the Chinese Government put forward two national strategies, one is flourishing the nation by science, technology and education, and another is sustainable


development. Since then, sustainable development has formally become a long-term strategy of China. During the 9th Five Year Plan (1996-2000) period, China provided the period target for sustainable development in every important field and worked out and implemented major special projects to reach them. Up to now, 30 laws related to the fields of population, resources, energy, environment, etc., have been worked out, including the Law of Environment Protection of PRC, the Law of Water of PRC, the Law of Saving Energy of PRC, etc. One hundred administrative regulations related to sustainable development have been worked out by the State Council. Hundreds of regulations in every government branch and state standards also have been worked out. Over fifty international treaties and agreements for the environment have been approved and signed. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress specially set up the committee of environment and resources protection, which has played an important role in legislation, surveillance and implementation. In 1998, the Bureau of State Environment Protection was promoted to the ministry level and raised its administrative level on environment. In 2008, it was promoted to be the Ministry of Environment Protection. Environment protection has played an increasingly important role in China’s economic and social development. During the past ten years, the achievements in sustainable environment areas are mainly as following: ——The environmental appraisement system has played an important role in state’ macro-control of major construction projects of the central government and local governments; ——Work of decreasing pollution emission has made remarkable progress. In the heavy pollution areas such as cement, electric power, papermaking, chemical industry, the comprehensive controlling and technical transformation have made so that the production has increased year by year while the emission intensity of main pollutants has continuously decreased. ——Pollution prevention in river basins has been put into effect. However, China has faced very seriously environmental problems. The existing area of desertification land has spread to 27.9% of the total area of China and is increasing every year. The total displacement of waste water is 43.9 billion tons which at present in China is over 82% of environmental capacity. The bad water quality of seven main water systems of drainage in China has occupied 40.9%, from which the main pollution emissions of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and emission quantity of chemical-needing-oxygen are over environmental capacity. This situation has headed the list of the world. The environmental quality has not been improved for a long time. Accidents from environmental pollution have entered a high frequency period. The thinking model of (economic) development firstly and (environment) governance later was focused on environment administration and environment innovation, even if it was as a hindering factor for economic development. It stressed control by administrative order rather than on innovation systems encouraged by market forces. The environment protection and innovation in middle and small sized enterprises is an area with almost no management. In many cases, local governments and enterprises formed an interested community which caused lack of effective


implemental systems of surveillance and management. The innovative capacity was low in enterprises and most of the technologies had been introduced from outside. The ability of environmental innovation is fairly low among industries. Solving these problems should depend on the collective efforts of governments, enterprises, research institutions, universities and the public. The suitable technology policy is very important.

THE TECHNOLOGY POLICIES RELATED TO SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CHINA The problem of sustainable environment has been a major concern in Chinese S&T policy. The technology policy related to sustainable environment mainly consists of two parts:（1）Technology Research and Development (R&D）for Sustainable Environment;（2）Promoting Environment Technology Progress of Enterprises.

Status of Environment in National S&T Policy of China In the National Middle and Long-term S&T Development Program Outline (20062020), environment has been ranked high among 11 preference fields, which are as follows: (1) Energy; (2) Water and Mineral Resources; (3) Environment; (4) Agriculture; (5) Manufacturing; (6) Communication and Transportation; (7) Information Production and Modern Service; (8) Population and Health; (9) Urbanization and City Development; (10) Public Safety; (11) National Defense. The main content of environmental S&T includes: (1) Comprehensive Treatment of Pollution and Circulative Utilization of Wastes; (2) Re-Habitation and ReEstablishment of Ecosystem Capacity at Ecologically Weak Areas; (3) Oceanic Ecology and Environmental Protection; (4) Monitoring of Global Environmental Change and Countermeasures. Sixteen special great projects had been defined in the National Middle and Longterm S&T Development Program Outline, there were four subjects related to environmental protection among them, namely: “the control and governance of water pollution”, “the large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor and high-temperature air-cooling nuclear power plant”, “new species breeding of trans-gene biology” and “high resolving power landed observation system”. The special great project of “The control and governance of water pollution has been led and implemented by the Ministry of Environment Protection, associated with nine separate units: the Ministry of Science and Technology, Committee of Developments and Reformation, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Construction, Ministry of Water Conservancy, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Education, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering.


The National R&D Programs For New Environmental Technology There are two national R&D Programs which have environmental technology R&D: National High-Tech R&D Program（863 Program）and National Key Technology R&D Program.

The National High-Tech R&D Program: The Research and Exploitation of High Technology China’s high-tech R&D program was set up in March 1986, thus it was called the 863 program. From 1986-2005, the 863 program consisted of six main high-tech areas. Since 2006 the areas expanded to ten areas, as Table 1 shows. Table1: The areas in the 863 program (1986-2010) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Areas (1985-2005) Information technology Biology and modern agriculture technology New materials

Areas (2006-2010) Information Technology Biology and Medicine Technology New Materials Technology Advanced Energy Technology Advanced Manufacturing Technology Resources and Environment Technology Marine Technology Modern Agricultural Technology Modern Transportation Technology Earth Observation and Navigation Technology

Advanced manufacture and Automation technology

Energy technology Resources and environment technology

The funding by the Central Government for the 863 Program is up to 15 billion RMB during the 2001-2005; 6473 projects had been established. Among them, 803 projects in Resources and Environment Technology, which occupies 12.4%. During the eleventh Five Year Plan period（2006-2010), R&D for new technologies in the resources and environment area are implemented at three levels: major project, key project and special subjects. The aim of the “major project” is to raise integrated innovation capacity and develop the prototype or important technological system. Two major projects in the environment area are: (1) Comprehensive prevention technology and integrated demonstration of atmospheric compound pollution at major cities. (2) Exploitation of technological system for an emergency event in major environmental pollution. The target of key projects is to raise integrated innovation capacity, make a breakthrough in key technology, exploit single strategic product prototype, or to solve the technical problems existing in pilots-scale experiments, for example, pollution controlling technology of motor vehicles. The special subjects are the projects which can be applied freely from bottom to top.


Environmental Technology R&D in National Key Technology R&D Program The National Key Technology R&D Program was set up in 1982. Its aim is to exploit and demonstrate key technology in the important areas. The National S&T program consists of 12 areas: Energy Resources, Natural Resources, Environment, Agriculture, Materials, Manufacturing, Communication and Transportation, Information Industry and Modern Service, Population and Health, Town and City Development, Public Safety and Other Social Affairs. In 2006, 144 projects were initiated as the first projects during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, which were selected from more than 500 proposals. And the Central Government invested 7.35 billion RMB in those projects. Among them, 16 projects and 5.35 million RMB in the Environment area which occupied 11.1% of the total projects and 7.2% of the total funding. In 2007, the Program set up 259 new projects, and the Central Government invested 7.94 billion RMB in those projects. Among them, 16 projects and 4 million RMB in the environment area which occupied 6.2% of the total projects and 5 % of the total funding. The major programs in the environmental field started in these two years were: （1）the research and demonstration of key technology in cleaning production and circulating economy,（2）Re-establishment of technology and demonstration for typically weak ecosystems.

The Achievements of National S&T Program Through technology R&D and engineering demonstration, a batch of advanced productive technologies and key equipped manufacturing technologies have been grasped, a batch of major technical products have been exploited, a batch of potent technologies of pollution control had been innovated, which have raised the capacities of pollution command on burning coal, tail gas of motor vehicles, sewage treatment and disposition of city rubbish, and have promoted an effective improvement of pollution command and environmental quality in land areas and river valleys of China.

The Technology Policies for Promoting Environmental Technology Progress of Enterprises The environmental technology policies are soft administrative methods by which governments guide industrial development, regulate industrial structure, and decrease pollution from fountainhead through recommending enterprise technologies and methods that are of benefit for environmental protection. They are guidance regulations with encouragement and have no enforcement authority, which are different from the system of enforcement elimination and replacement in environment protection. Since 2001 with initiation of the 10th Five Year Plan, the Bureau for State Environment Protection (now the Ministry of Environment Protection) has


implemented a series of technology polices on prevention and governance of environmental pollution，it has issued: ——Fifteen technology policies on pollution prevention and governance in the areas of waste water in printing and dyeing industry, dangerous waste materials, burning coal, sulfur dioxide，diesel, locomotive, motorcycle, tanning industry, etc. ——Twelve engineering regulations for the concentrative burning of medical waste and the concentrative treatment of high-temperature steam of medical waste, desulphurization of smoking gas of thermal power factories. ——More than ninety technical demands for environmental protection products and over seventy technical demands for environmental marked products have been worked out. These measures have played a important role in encouraging enterprises to use good technology for the environment.

The Existing Problems in the Implementation of Technology Policies in China Although making great progress, the implementation of technology has some problems, which needs to be solved. For new and key technology R&D, the problems are: lack of major research and investigation; lack of basic data; some research separated from management cannot meet actual need; the standard system of environmental protection needs to be perfect; low transformative rate from research results to production; etc. For enterprises using good technologies for environment or cleaning technologies, the main problem is: at present, China has put stress on guidance and order, but has no effective policies of compensating for using cleaning technologies. So, some enterprises have taken environmental innovation as a cost, not as a source of competition superiority. For example, some electric factories have installed desulphurization equipment, but could not obtain compensation.

THE SYSTEM OF TECHNICAL POLICIES IMPLEMENTATION Environmental Innovation System in China The Chinese environmental innovation system consists of universities, research institutions, enterprises and various organizations affiliated with the environmental protection department at different levels. There is a systematic research institution including universities in the environmental field, but it is seriously divorced between research and market. There is a lack of an applied engineering research system between basic research and actual application. Most research institutions at the provincial level and the organizations affiliated to environmental protection departments have taken the main task of the appraisement of environmental influence and providing environmental advice service of pollution treatment, but have done less research on the environment.


Enterprises In the environment protection area, large enterprises have done better than small enterprises, state owned enterprises are much better, because of rigorous management. Two famous enterprises of Huaneng and Shenhua have provided higher requirements of environmental protection to their sub-companies. Some large private companies also have played an important role in environmental protection, such as Shangde and Qinghuaziguang, and etc. Although small and middle enterprises are a vital force in innovation, most of the small and middle enterprises are hard to be controlled in environment protection.

Government The government has put an emphasis on order and is good at using administrative methods to manage the environment. It is the major force of financial investment. But there lacks coordination between different departments. In the environment technology R&D area, the Ministry of Science and Technology has mastered finance, but it does not understand the needs of environmental innovation. The Ministry of Environment Conservation understands the needs, but it lacks finance. And the government still emphasizes higher GDP over the quality of the environment.

Information and Examination and Survey System The local units of environment monitoring have only taken the responsibility for local governments, resulting in a lack of open information. The situation is unfavorably controlled by higher authorities. Even many local governments have little knowledge about local environmental status. They lack the equipment, talent, and examination stations necessary for the examination of trends in contaminated areas and enterprises. They are also lacking an effective S&T service network between middle and small sized enterprises. Also, because there is lacking a strong information system, the effect of implementation of polices is poor.

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT For the last ten years, China’ economy has grown rapidly, but the environment has become worse. Today, the government is taking numerous measures to protect the environment. In the area of technology policies related to sustainable environment, China needs to take bold measures to better address its environment challenges: ——Making a great investment in the research and development of new technology that can benefit the environment, especially in such areas as governance of water contamination, governance of motor vehicle pollution, coal clean burning technologies, clean productive technologies and eco-recovery technologies. ——Revising laws and standards, making energy saving and environmental protection as one activity of obtaining economic benefit.


——To set up a national environmental information center and issue the related data to society and to set up an independent surveillance information system. ——Improving management at the local level and to keep a free flow of information open about the environment. ——Promoting public participation in policy making in the environment area.

REFERENCES 1. The Bureau of State Environment Protection. .The Eleventh Five Years Plan for the State Science and Technology Development in Environment Protection, 2006. 2. The Bureau of State Environment Protection .The Tenth Five Years Plan Programme for the State Environmental Science and Technology Development, 2001. 3. MOST of China. Annual Report of the State Programs of Science and Technology Development 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. www.most.gov.cn/ndbg/ 4. MOST of China. Report of Science and Technology in Sustainable Development 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. China’ Agriculture Press.


Mexico’s Sustainable Development: ¿Is it Possible, an Alternative Scenario? Medardo Tapia Uribe Researcher at Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoAv. Universidad sin número, Circuito 2, Col. Chamilpa, Cuernavaca, Morelos C.P. 62210. Office Tel: (777) 3175299; email: [email protected], [email protected] Abstract. Mexico’s track of development needs to be different in order to aspire to sustainable development. This chapter examines Mexico’s current socioeconomic situation with respect to the rest of Latin American countries in the last few years and the forecast for 2009. Then it provides empirical data of the deterioration of Mexican natural resources in order to explore an alternative scenario as presented in the Mexican debate of Mexico’s sustainable development. Keywords: social construction, sustainable development, citizen participation, politics PACS: 89.65.Lm, 89.65.Ef, 89.60.-k

MEXICO’S ECONOMIC SITUATION There are strong reasons why Mexico has to take a completely different track in the promotion of its development. This alternative track is not only necessary in terms of sustainability, but also in order to grow and confront poverty levels and drug violence problems that have put at risk its democratic transition and its Nation State category. Before the current world economic crisis exploded, while Latin America and the Caribbean grew at a 5% rate, Mexico grew at a slower pace. In 2007, while Latin America had a GNP increase of 5.7%, Mexico’s rate was only 3.2%, last place in all Latin America together with Haiti; by 2008 Mexico only did better than Haiti in all of Latin America. Unfortunately, CEPAL Latin America growth indicies forecast that for the 2009 estimate Mexico will occupy the last position. Haiti, our closest competitor will probably grow three times more than Mexico. Up until 2008 Mexico’s government has the lowest tax income percentage with respect to its GNP in all of Latin America, around 8%; while the Latin American mean was 14.3%. In addition, while Latin American countries reduced public debt by more than 20 points, as a percentage of their GNP, Mexico simply kept it at the same level.[1] Mexico’s economy is predominantly oriented towards the US and developed countries markets more than any other Latin American country. Our exports towards these economies indicate this.[2] Therefore the developed countries crisis impact will be more severe in Mexico than in the rest of the region. In addition, given our low level of taxes our national public income, depends to a great degree on oil revenues; up to 30% of Mexico’s public income comes from oil sales, like Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia.[3] Mexico receives each year one of the highest amounts of foreign investment, together with Brazil. Nevertheless, when one looks at net direct foreign investment as an amount of Mexico’s GNP it is one of the lowest of Latin America, only 2.8%.


This is the reason we believe an economic sustainable development will not be attainable in the current development track. Unfortunately our current president and his team do not believe we have to change Mexican public policy for development. Recently, the wealthiest businessman of Mexico, declared in an economic forum organized by the Mexican Congress at the Senate, that he couldn´t believe why Mexico sticks to the same economic public policies after 25 years of failure. Several members of the Mexican presidential cabinet responded immediately by the media. Among other things, they disqualified him as a valid speaker and they accused him of having benefited from Mexico´s economy for many years and at the same time offers one of the most expensive telephone services in the world, which rested legitimacy from his opinion.

MEXICO’S NATURAL RESOURCES Natural resources in Mexico are under heavy pressure due to our main economic indicies of development. Some of the figures offered by the Mexican ministry of environment (SEMARNAT) offer us trends of the deterioration of natural resources and Mexican government actions towards it. From 1993 to 2002 Mexico lost approximately 3.5 million hectares of forest out of an estimate of 61.5 million and was able to reforest only one million; in spite of the fact that 250 thousand trees have been planted in rural areas since 1993. The northern part of Mexico concentrates most of the “critical forest areas”, although Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz and Quintana Roo have also some areas in such critical situation. Between 1997 and 2004 a forest fire lasted between 24 and 42 hours, an average of 30 hours approximately. Nayarit, Durango in the northern part of Mexico and Guerrero and Oaxaca are the states where forest fires last longer than any other Mexican state.[4] People’s drinkable water access and water pollution is also one of the parameters of natural resources sustainability. By 2003, in the southern part of Mexico less than 80 percent of its population had access to drinkable water, Tabasco, Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. In addition, only 80% of the citizens of San Luis Potosi, in central Mexico, had access to water as well. Guerrero and Oaxaca are the Mexican states with the lowest indicies of access to drainage, with less than fifty percent of its population, followed by Chiapas, Tabasco and Yucatan.[5] Between 1998 and 2003, in Mexico only less than 30% of residual water was processed by any kind of sanitation treatment. The industrial sector contributed with only 23% of residual water and 30% was municipalities’ contribution. However, water access and sanitation treatment in Mexico, by law, are the responsibilities of municipalities.[6] With respect to carbon emission into the atmosphere, Mexico contributes less than 2% of carbon emission into the atmosphere in contrast with 25% for the US contribution and 27% for China, Russia, Japan and India.[7] We could keep providing figures of Mexico’s contribution to natural resources deterioration. However, it is more important to look at what we can do about it. The task is extremely difficult and has several dimensions. First of all, there is strong debate in society around the world about what to do about sustainable development. This is the case in Mexico as well. 102 Downloaded 01 Oct 2009 to 163.118.206.228. Redistribution subject to AIP license or copyright; see http://proceedings.aip.org/proceedings/cpcr.jsp

MEXICO’S SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF DEVELOPMENT Four years ago we carried out research about the social construction of sustainable development in Mexico. We found that the disruption of everyday life of urban citizens, peasants or simply neighbors can lead to the disruption of the Mexican State and citizen’s tacit agreements. In our research we found that everyday life´s disruption, for example, by a new housing complex, because of forest or city trees being cut down, or because the “garbage has not been collected” for many days, can create mobilization among citizens. In the forest, everyday life could be disrupted because an inhabitant runs the risk of being imprisoned for trafficking illegally in wooden beams. Close to the river, everyday life is disrupted because polluted water has resulted in cattle deaths or cannot be used for watering crops. This, as pointed by Bourdieu,[8] has created a cognitive subversion, and political action has translated into citizen mobilization and debate. The matrix of dispositions, of all that we do without thinking because that is the way we are and we live, has fallen apart, and both citizens and government must discuss their responsibilities and rights. They need to come to an agreement in order to decide which way to go and who should decide it, who holds the authority to knock down walls and cut down trees, who takes responsibility for the safeguarding of trees and water, who watches over ravines, and how household waste will be managed. Students and citizens surveyed in our research state that: “We do not know what to do or how to organize ourselves, or how to come to an agreement; we are not notified, we are not taken into account, we think they want to deceive us and we are sure that our rights are not being honored.” Unsure of exactly what to do, but hopeful —as Bourdieu would put it[9] — citizens undertake social change vested with a utopian democratic vision and acting through speech. Based on a historically learned and locally defined vision of the problem, like in other parts of the world[10,11] they seize the street, close the town, confront authority and either delegitimize or challenge it (this is how citizens of a citizen’s group, “The Front” acted and how co-owners of the Corridor municipalities act too); they simply lack confidence in projects that are never carried out or never completed, e.g. the old-time Apatlaco River projects. This is how citizens perceive and debate environmental problems. This is how students learn about them, and this is the way that environmental citizenship is initially constructed: at first as disagreement and subversion[12] and later as debate. Citizens’ utopian vision can be seen in that repeated expression that defended a former Casino de la Selva Hotel facility in order to transform it into a cultural and recreational site, versus the government authorities’ vision of creating development and jobs that were poorly paid. In Bourdieu’s language, these visions are also predictive since they aim at reaching the goal of what is said, as citizens did in the case of the park constructed at the site occupied by the former Cuernavaca prison. In the debate, however, acting through words continues, since through an eminently performative discourse[13] mobilized citizens seek to persuade their interlocutors—i.e. government authorities—to change their vision of how the city and the forest should be developed. In a reciprocal manner, these authorities aim at convincing mobilized citizens that they “are the authority” and that they act according to law, indeed that on such a basis they have authorized the construction of “the store”, a COSTCO commercial centre. They also complain to Front citizens for not having 103 Downloaded 01 Oct 2009 to 163.118.206.228. Redistribution subject to AIP license or copyright; see http://proceedings.aip.org/proceedings/cpcr.jsp

concerned themselves earlier with the neglected Casino de la Selva artistic works and for not fighting for the preservation of the forests. To the peasants and residents of the forest, the authorities complain that they have colluded with loggers. Thus, government authorities justify the legal use of force to imprison Front members when the latter blocked the street or by doing likewise in Huitzilac by sending police. Businessmen play an insignificant role in this debate, and they mainly address the authorities; when they address mobilized citizens, they do so in order to tell them that private property cannot be modified except by the owner’s will, disregarding legal provisions for environmental protection. Those who best illustrate the social force with which mobilized citizens debate government authorities are the students and their vision—utopian precisely because it has not yet been institutionalized[14] —of a government with greater citizen participation: a more democratic society in which neighbors and authorities jointly solve urgent environmental problems of household waste, forests, and ravines. This is the social force that Bourdieu discusses, and whose resonance sustains urban neighbors’ as well as peasants’ mobilization. The latter’s social force, however, features additional, more powerful historical components. The social force of their discourses, arguments, and political actions is based on their historical right to work the land and look after the forest, even though they may exceed what has been instituted[15] by laws and decrees and may be, therefore, unlawful. Peasants have granted that right to themselves in their capacity as a “practical group,” as Bourdieu would call it, based on their history and the social and economic marginalization in which they live. That is why they do not want assistance programs but rather a type of development whereby they are included through greater citizen and community participation in Federal and state government decisions about their forests, even if this is only to be able to “authoritatively” declare protected natural areas or to develop temporary employment programs. The social-citizenship force of peasants and urbanites has deep historical roots. Historically, in Mexico elite political compromise has prevailed across the most powerful regional groups. That is why “citizen discontent is felt most at the municipal level”[16] (Alicia Hernández, 1996: 28). This discontent, as old as the Mexican Revolution itself, went through a “demobilization” period[17] when citizens appeared to have traded off “freedom for social protection.”[18] . Such facts introduce nuances into what Bourdieu and Thompson[19] postulate. Demobilization is not only the result of discussion in the public sphere. The exhaustion of explicit and implicit agreements between citizens and the government leads to subversion, mobilization, and debate, as it is currently happening with organized urban citizens, peasants, and forest residents. Historically, after 1950 and markedly since the sixties, “civic, municipal, and urban protest grew”[20] because the corporate agreements and commitments with labor and peasant organizations through which citizen demand had always been coopted began to wear out. It is for this reason that Alicia Hernández[21] asks, “Can Mexican federalism retrain existing institutions and put them at the service of citizens?” This latter point leads us to attempt to answer one of Bourdieu’s proposals: Beyond gender, age, or origin, who are the citizens of the Front and the residents and communal land-holders of the Chichinautzin Biological Corridor, of San Antón, or of the Apatlaco River? They are citizens who refused to be 104 Downloaded 01 Oct 2009 to 163.118.206.228. Redistribution subject to AIP license or copyright; see http://proceedings.aip.org/proceedings/cpcr.jsp

“corporatized”—i.e. made members of some state-linked union organizations, such as the teachers’ or peasants’ unions of the Institutional Revolutionary Party—. They are citizens who also rejected the chance to belong to a political class which, as Escalante Gonzalbo pointed out, is “a highly restricted and unscrupulous political class”[22] that decides on public affairs through a “secret and exclusive pact rather than within the sphere of public opinion open to the argumentative inclusion of different interests. They are also urban and municipal-level citizens— members of the Front and Tree guardians, as another group calls themselves— who have taken on the defense of the trees and their city as a prime reference of meaning. Citizens are also peasants, communal land-holders, and residents who take on the defense and use of the natural resources in the forest and the river because that is where they live and where they get their sustenance, and who also refuse to be corporatized and thereby trade off their citizens’ rights for social protection. The students, future citizens, are the heirs of these identities and dispositions, of these habits deeply rooted not only in history but also in everyday life, hopefully with renewed social capital, new capabilities, and new tasks. Perhaps one of the major tasks for students, citizens, and the government is how to respond to a reformulation of the question posed by Alicia Hernández: Can [the new] citizens contribute in reforming the existing institutions to put them at service of citizens and sustainable development? Another task for both current and future citizens and the government is to make Mexican politics truly public, to be of everybody’s concern, so that it stops being as Daniel Cosío Villegas accurately described it: [Mexican] politics is not enacted on public squares, the parliament, or the press, in debates or controversies…, but rather in face-to-face conversation, through half-spoken words between the aspirant and the power [holder][23] (1966: 160). This task is unavoidable not only for current actors, both citizens and the government, but also for the students, because if there is anything we have learned is that democracy, in any of its forms, is not inherited but constructed. But we must acknowledge the fact that the main obstacles to achieving this utopian vision of democratic development and government are the community’s members themselves—those who accept the government’s arguments and discourse, and those who benefit from exercising power, i.e. our political class and government authorities. This is an important caveat regarding Bourdieu’s arguments, which seem to place stronger emphasis on citizens’ responsibility for social change. We clearly need to a new vision and horizon to work into the direction of Mexico’s sustainable development and part of that vision requires real democracy beyond Mexico’s government official discourse, for example, beyond that one that he shows off worldwide: The effort carried out by the Mexican ministry of environment on this task [Participatory Councils for Sustainable Development] has been acknowledged worldwide by the 2002 Johannesburg Sustainable World Forum organized by United Nations. Mexico showed off because of its advances in the institutionalization of these entities of social participation.[24] Mexican government shows off sustainable development participatory councils in every state of the country. Unfortunately, as our research shows this is mostly rhetoric discourse rather than real participation. Most of the times, in Mexico, we 105 Downloaded 01 Oct 2009 to 163.118.206.228. Redistribution subject to AIP license or copyright; see http://proceedings.aip.org/proceedings/cpcr.jsp

fake people´s participation, as in the supposed citizen councils in charge of federal and local elections. This is why we need to work into a different vision in order to try to build alternative prospective scenarios, however they should not look only to the scientific and technological dimension. They must include the social construction of sustainable development.

CONCLUSION My paper concludes with a proposal that departs from a local perspective and a strategic alliance between researchers, productive sector and politicians themselves. As presented at the beginning, it requires working in a different track sustained on a different vision and having as a horizon an alternative development scenario. The latest proposal by the Mexican government focuses on ecology regulation on land use, transgenic crops and evaluation of environment impact productive or any kind of urban, communication or social development projects.[25] In the Mexican chapter of the Latin American and Caribbean Initiative for Sustainable Development Mexico aims at certain goals, for example, to increase the use of renewable energy up to 10%, whose current parameter is around 2%[26] or to promote clean production, by means of certification of enterprises to ISO 14001, while the current parameter is of less than 1%. These aims are not attainable. We need a different track and direction of social, productive and economic development if we want to walk headed towards a sustainable development future. That is why I think the issue is political more than scientific and technological. There have been some well known proposals –like those of Etzkowitz[27]– that have spoken of the triple helix alliance as well as the results of those experiences in the world, however, they are not based on renewable energies or they have not a large scale impact. I would add citizens to the helix. Given the political component perhaps Obama’s victory in the US latest presidential elections is a good example as well as its plan to work in the direction of renewable energy and clean manufacturing; we must be cautious, again, in the case of Mexico, where transition to democracy is stuck in suspicions of fraudulent elections, our drug traffic security problems, our poverty levels and lack of development. We will be last in growth in Latin America during this crisis and our government does not seem to be working in the direction of sustainable development. The influenza crisis will just make it much more difficult.

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Comisión Económica para América Latina, Balance preliminar de las economías de América Latina y el Caribe, San José Costa Rica: CEPAL. CEPAL, op. cit.: 9. CEPAL, op. cit.: 39. Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Informe de la situación del medio Ambiente en México. Compendio de estadísticas ambientales, México, D. F.: SEMARNAT, 2005, p. 95 Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Informe de la situación del medio ambiente en México. Compendio de estadísticas ambientales, México, D. F.: SEMARNAT, 2005 pp. 335-336


6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27.

Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Informe de la situación del medio ambiente en México. Compendio de estadísticas ambientales, México, D. F.: SEMARNAT, 2005, pp. 337, 338, 340. Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Informe de la situación del medio ambiente en México. Compendio de estadísticas ambientales, México, D. F.: SEMARNAT, Pp.277-281 Bourdieu, P. Language and symbolic power. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, 1991. Tapia Uribe, M. Intimidad colectiva, habitus, subjetividad e identidad. En: M. G. Sollano (coordinadora). Teoría, epistemología y educación: debates contemporáneos. México, D. F.: UNAM y Plaza y Valdes Editores, 2002, pp. 187-223. Klintenberg, P., Seely, M. and Christiansson C. Local and national perceptions of environmental change in Central Northern Namibia: do they correspond? En: Journal of arid environments. 69 (3), pp. 506-525 (2007). Wakefield, Sarah E. L. , Susan J. Elliott, John D. Eyles and Donald C. Cole. Taking Environmental Action: The Role of Local Composition, Context, and Collective. Environmental Management. Vol. 37, 1, January, pp. 40-53 (2006). Bourdieu, P. op. cit. Bourdieu, P. op. cit. Bourdieu, P. op. cit. Bourdieu, P. op. cit. Hernández Chávez, A.¿Hacia un nuevo federalismo? México, D. F. : El Colegio de México (1996). Ibidem. Ibidem. Thompson, J. B. Editor’s introduction. En: P. Bourdieu, Language and symbolic power. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, pp. 1-31 (1991). A. Hernández, op. cit.: 31. Ibidem. Escalante Gonzalbo, F. Ciudadanos imaginarios. México: El Colegio de México, p. 259 (1992). Cosío Villegas, Daniel. El intelectual mexicano y la política. En: Ensayos y notas. México, D. F.: Hermes. Vol. II (1966) Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Iniciativa Latinoamericana y Caribeña para el Desarrollo Sostenible. Indicadores de seguimiento México, 2005. México, D. F.: SEMARNAT, 2006, pp. 93-97 SEMARNAT, 2005. Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Iniciativa Latinoamericana y Caribeña para el Desarrollo Sostenible. Indicadores de seguimiento México, 2005. México, D. F.: SEMARNAT, 2006, p. 83. Etzkowitz, Henry Triple Helix twins: innovation and sustainability. Science and Public Policy. Vol. 33, No. 1, February, pp. 77-83 (2006).


On Sustainability Assessment of Emerging Radical Innovations Imre Hronszky Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Department of Mgmt & Corporate Economics, H-1111 Budapest, Stoczek u. 2., Hungary, Tel: (+36) 1 4631074 Abstract. The meaning of sustainability in a world full of breakthrough technological innovations is envisaged. Attention to systematically include speculative investigations for sustainability requirements already in the emergence phase of breakthrough innovations is discussed. Keywords: Breakthrough innovation, sustainability, scenario building as thought experiment, engaging in “double fictitious” thought experiments PACS: 87.23Ge, 89.20 Bb, 89.65.-s, 89.75.Fb

INTRODUCTION It is slowly being recognized that the future can be predicted only in a very restricted way. Instead of insisting on this trial we have more to think of possible futures that may occur in an evolutionary process, full of unavoidable catastrophies. Evolutionary processes can be influenced. Even some of the possible catastrophies can be anticipated and avoided or learned to live with it by a mixture of flexibilities and robustness. A tool to help influence the dynamic is to „bound” „the” future in a set of scenarios that are narratives of possible worlds accounting for alternative „histories of the future”. One of the main methodological problems concerning valid future knowledge is how these scenarios are to be developed. Progress was the overarching historical category for modernity. Progress summarises what modernity thought about nature, the human actor, their interaction and about human history. According to this overarching vision, in its most essential terms, the „homo faber” progressively masters nature that is only an object, the „inert matter”, and this mastering provides for the material base of prosperity and freedom in history. In progress ideologies it is claimed that the human being has a historically invariant goal toward historical moves. However nature history has shown by now that the „homo faber” approach, among other things through the „revenge” of accumulating externalias, leads to the gradual annihilation of the material basis of human existence. In my opinion sustainability is emerging as the new overarching category for a historical period of overcoming modernity. Concerning the relation to nature, realising sustainability is to turn this annihilating tendency to the opposite, by a different type of integration of human beings with nature. This different type of integratation includes the ever growing transforming capability through technological development, but


integrates it into an ecosystem view. The ecosystem view in its essence is the evolutionary system and its governance.

SUSTAINABILITY DEFINITION There isn’t place here for an assessment of the diverging approaches in looking for a definition of sustainability. There isn’t place either to critically assess those sustainability definitions that (one-sidedly) focus on the preserving element and envision or dream of some sort of simply harmonious co-evolution of nature and the human being as the essence of „sustainability”. Sustainability is first of all the needed new overall vision of the future. It essentially involves learning of the non-linearity of complex processes, of the way of progressively involving externalia of human action into the sphere of human action to be able to preserve and reproduce potentials of nature and learning of the selfreflexivity of the human actor moving in a complex world, including into this selfreflexivity the critical relation to self-identification.1 Systematic speculation over these issues provides for the possibility of some successful anticipation, mental simulation of sustainability. Systematic thought experiments may overcome obstacles to sustainability just as we are accustomed to do this in consideration of possible economic aspects of innovations. One thing is sure: sustainable development can not be a simple, long-term historical accumulation of the successes by just keeping, repeatedly reiterating the direction of the accumulation. Sustainable development can not be a linear process in realising (new) human goals. Trying to develop a sustainable system is first of all a selfreflexive process that renews its values and goals from time to time and systematically makes them the object for reflexivity. Trying to realise sustainability is trying to find governance for the complex system of the interacting nature and the human being. This, by definition, can not be a simple, linear process of repeated historical iterations. Not only accumulations but also changes of directions normally occur in long-term historical processes. These changes are (sometimes anticipatory) answers to breakthrough changes in the turbulent environment and extend to technology initiated changes in values or human identity. Reflexivity, the conscious „accounting for” both the turbulences and the reorienting human actor, is the essential cognitive and ethical element in engaging in sustainability speculations and actions. It is process by its very nature because, from time to time, it changes the reflexive actor and constructs a new relation to its „object”. We should try to realise an ecological relation toward nature but taken into account that the history of nature is non-linear and is full of catastrophies. Nature by itself has a dynamic that repeatedly provides for new ecologies of the systems involved. Mostly with a quite different time scale, cascades of innovations change the dynamic of human history, too. One of the partial problems for developing an overall interpretation in terms of sustainability is to envision a place for breakthrough radical innovations and looking for ways how sustainability as an essential character of the 1 By its goal setting nature the human being is inevitably an externalia producer. What sort of externalias can be included and what can not into sustainability considerations in any historical period show the repeatedly but aperiodically returning historical possibilities to utilize and the limits that become to overcome in developing sustainability efforts.


innovation can be as early as possible introduced into the dynamic of the emergence of innovations.

RADICAL INNOVATIONS Let me say first something terminological. There are two types of radical innovations. Both types occur more often and are more important in the recent globalising competitivity race than they occurred in decades past. One type contributes to „sustaining innovations”, in the meaning of supporting existing trends.2 (Innovations supporting trends may be incremental or „sustaining radical” innovations. With the latter we know the economic challenges when we look for innovations but have to look for an appropriate technological solution as with technological researches to satisfy the Moore „law”.) Other sorts of radical innovations lead to breakthroughs, to changes of trends. The phase of emergence of innovation is especially uncertain with possible breakthrough innovations. There is a rapidly growing literature on assessing and managing emerging radical innovations leading to breakthroughs. There is a strong rhetoric that aims to extend calculability to the emergence and early phase of breakthrough radical innovations. This rhetoric often tries to add credibility to the suggested assessment and management instruments of the early phase by presenting them as if they were wellproved techniques to apply in routine ways. Nevertheless, a critical reader gets the impression when s/he reads for example about a „quick deepdive” that this technique can only be applied to relatively ripe stages of the innovation process. In this rhetoric it is suggested to raise rationality of the exercise by a net present value (nPV) calculation. This should be based on what is, at the time of calculation, possible to know about the market, development or production costs. But calculations often prove false by orders of magnitude. It is at least as important that calculations may not forecast that the direction of the search process may change with changes of the environment, or with emerging new goals or new search instruments. Doubtful calculations are suggested, while we still really may move in the „suicide quadrant”. Further it should even be said that actually we may move in a „suicide n-dimensional space” where, beside technological and market uncertainty, there are other different sorts of uncertainties and ignorances, simultaneously. This set of uncertainties and ignorances may for example include lack of knowledge whether the new innovation will be able to be constructed as something supporting a sustainable world. Some recent researchers argue that managing „unforeseeable uncertainty” and complexity may follow three ways:3 Either a selectionist approach realising selection only post festa, or a trial-and-error learning approach can be followed or some combination of them. These approaches reflect on the challenge that the actor moves in an environment where the required radically new „answer” can be found only by genuine experimentation, just by trials, either making the experiments simultaneously or based on an early selection decision. 2

Notice please, that this meaning of „sustaining” has some accidental relation to what one try to speak of when s/he speaks about the sustainability of the historical dynamic of the human interaction with nature. „Sustaining” the trend means preserving the trend, that may be also realised in a seemingly paradox way, just by new, radical innovations. 3 Svenja Sommer and Christoph Loch argue in a series of recent articles for some soft methodology that helps make reasoned preference choices among them in different constellations.


By definition, in the early phases we do not know if an innovation candidate will really prove realisable. There is recently a perhaps dominating opinion for a consecutive division of labour that in this early phase of research we should first restrict ourselves to assess the technological candidates on their own terms of realisability, and then only later should we extend this assessment by including economic considerations as selection criteria. Environmental, social and ethical considerations may move into the arena in this phase too, even as compulsory assessment for special (medical) types of innovation. We meet in this later phase of research environmental, legal and social assessment (ELSA), first prescribed in the USA nearly 20 years ago. But we may ask: Why should not sustainability considerations be included into the assessment process in the first phase of possible breaktrough innovations? This is trying a „double fictitious” approach.4 We try to systematically speculate about a nascent breakthrough innovation candidate by bringing it into imaginable environments and realise appropriate thought experiments. In making this „double fictitious” exercise we try to assess what impacts an imaginable innovation may lead to in possible interactions with different, imaginable environments. The reward for these efforts would be the acquisition of some more tentative governance knowledge that may be early embodied in the technological search process and could lead to early modification efforts. Some combination of „selectionism”, that means preserving some alternatives even when early sustainability considerations are in disfavour of them and trial-and-error-based learning may equally well serve for searching for sustainability too, as for narrow economic intentions. All this could make the development of breakthrough innovations more conscientious and base them on a wider social acceptance. The „price” for this win would be some growth in research „costs” and some inevitable slowing down of this process in comparison to the usual approach. Radical innovations may work well in their special „ecosystems”, natural environments, customers, legal regulation modes. It is worthwhile to look at the search for a radical innovation in its emerging state as some sort of co-construction process. The process is a mixture of path creation and learning interaction with the repeated actions aiming at realisation of the needed steps prescribed by some „endogenous scenarios”.5 In a basis-democratic society reaching „social robustness” is an unavoidable element of a sustainability approach. Reaching „social robustness” for emerging breakthrough innovations means that they become acceptable early by the masses perhaps in a wide set of conditions. This acquired acceptability can become a strong element in the ripening of the innovation itself, changing it in different aspects during the process: it is co-construction. In a limited way, systematic inclusion of some sort of ELSA perspective belongs to the process of reaching this „social robustness” already. But ELSA can be applied to relatively ripe innovations. Taking this into consideration the question repeatedly emerges if it would be meaningful to try assessment earlier and if this undertaking could be realised so that it makes sense?

4

Champion for this approach are perhaps Arie Rip and the Netherlands and the DEEPEN project supported by the 6th Framework programme by the EU. „Endogenous scenarios” represent the unavoidable steps which belong to some projected goal.

5


Searching for radical innovations in their emerging phase has some dynamic between Scylla and Charibd, a mixture of systematic trial to make progress as iteration, „linearisation” of the investigation process and search by chance, by simple trial. „Hopeful monsters” appear and disappear first and signalise some sort of perhaps temporary or even pseudo-success during this process, when the researcher tries to move in the „rugged landscape” where breakthroughs are to be made, to use the term of the famous complexity researcher, Stuart A. Kaufmann.6 Utilising capability of learning of higher order, „frame reflexivity” may be a key to success. Any prognostic possibility proves to be senseless in the very early phases of research when the focus is still on finding some problem formulation that encourages one to believe one can find some solution. But the choice is not to turn to a fully (!) contingent trial-and-error approach. (Necessity of this fully contingent approach was mutatis mutandis presumed by Thomas Kuhn about the preparadigmatic phase of scientific research in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.) It seems that the starting search processes does not require unavoidably trials „led” by pure chance either because earlier experience provides for some analogical guide. These may serve as tools for the needed „frame reflection” to reach alternative problem formulations. My guess is the following. A very important element of a successful search dynamic in this very first phase may be a „systematic” looking for analogies that help redefine the possible problems that can serve as a starting point for searching for breakthrough innovations.7 Some of these analogies prove successful and together provide for „monsters”as their integration. A „hopeful monster” is an intermediary solution, a new product that already works in some environments but on the base, on the „price” of long term incompatibility with the unified elements.8 Cognition and hence innovation necessarily work through producing ”monsters”. We should add to the „systematic” search for analogies in the early phase of investigations that to best utilise this technique we have to involve a widening of our foresight perspective. This widening may occur through systemically extending our interest to „unbelievable” scenarios.9 Unavoidably, the early positive result of a search process for breakthroughs is only a „hopeful monster” that is kept together by a set of contradictory characteristics. This way a „hopeful monster” is a guide-post. Its existence expresses some capability of flexibility to overcome this imbalance or intermediary balance of contradictory characteristics needed to stabilise an innovation in the period of transition. Mostly, in this period the problem is still not only that the interest of perhaps every actor, developers, regulators and early consumers, fluctuates, but that very often they differently define from their own perspective what the problems to overcome are and how this overcoming should be made. Expectation cycles get an essential role in the progressing patternisation, in the formation of a path, of a trend and products that satisfy the requirements. Scenarios 6

You find this expression in every book by Kaufmann from 1989. Margaret Masterman, one of the earliest adopters of and enthusiast for the paradigm change view tried to consider this possibility in the 60s for solving the quest for a structured dynamic in the preparadigmatic phase. More about Masterman’s forgotten achivement in Fésüs and Hronszky 2007. 8 The term „hopeful monster” comes from evolutionary biology into theory of science and technology. The Bohr model or the concept of spin until it was based on analogy is another example for „monsters”. 9 Postma and Liebl (2004). “Unbelievable” scenarios can be systematically constructed by overcoming the recently dominating scenario building methodology, for example by contextualization efforts or accepting inconsistencies. 7


give form to the expectations and realise a performative role in this respect by influencing the future in the manner they suggest. Roadmaps add to the instruments. We have to position our projected values in the projected environments and identify the unavoidable key changes, the „scripts” in the process of projected realisation. By comparing the „inscribed futures” with the recent situation and identifying the unavoidable key changes to achieve at least one of these future alternatives we can estimate the robustness of our endeavour. We have to repeat the process whenever it seems essential. This needs a decision that is strongly based on estimation and we may regularly be constrained to repeat the efforts from scratch. Van de Ven and his coauthors correctly emphasize that the „innovation journey”, in its early phase needs recognition of alternative actions and repeated returns to the beginning.10 Any element of an „innovation chain” may be a starting point for some radical innovation. Nevertheless the starting points of radical innovations are often new scientific knowledge. From time to time a new scientific basis, a new „scientific regime” becomes exploitable. (This happened for example with the recognition of atomic energy, the genestructure or with the emerging recent new regime, nanoscience.) This possibility of exploitation is a very complicated issue. It does not mean that basic science is simply able to offer, by putting on a show, application possibilities by itself but a feed-back looped system of research emerges. I have to refer here to the „application oriented basic research” that partly deals with searching for application possibilities. Complex turns are typical in this „exploitation” process. The real process of innovation is typically neither linear and sequential nor is it simple trial and error type experimentation, but some sort of self-organizing process that includes ordered sequences, partly convergent partly divergent processes too. It has several turning backs, turning sideways and looking back. When it successes it may get the appearance of linearity. All this happens in a scale invariant way. That means it is valid for any element of the innovation chain. Only after a while can the search process get a progressing order, as some sort of success. As Peter Drucker reminded us long ago, when a new venture does succeed, more often than not it is in a market other than the one it was originally intended to serve. It succeeds with products and services not quite those for which it had set out. They will be bought in large part by customers it did not even think of when it started. And, finally, they will be used for a host of purposes besides the ones for which the products were first designed.

SUSTAINABILITY CONSIDERATIONS How is all this to integrate with early sustainability reconsiderations? Slowly it becomes a commonplace that innovation is of an evolutionary nature, similar to biological processes. One decisive difference makes it „quasi-evolutionary”. This means that it is mediated by the intentionality of the innovators. This mediation is realised in two interacting constituents. The first is that sort of variation production that tries to anticipate the selection environment, tries the grades of its freedom and 10

Andrew Van de Ven at all (1999):


reflects on it by excluding some variants anticipatively and realising only the other(s). The second intentional constituent is a possible trial to influence the selection environment. Among other things this trial to influence the selection environment can be a trial to help to develop new types of consumers. But we can also try to influence the selection environment by reaching a changing, anticipative legal regulation, which can promote an expected breakthrough. Especially at very research intensive research fields and for research that needs a very long time there is strong pressure by the innovators to reach a favourable regulatory environment as soon as possible, as it is in pharmaceutics. A further typical case for influencing the selection environment is procurement. And finally anticipatory selection can also be realised by providing for artificial natural environments. Looking for sustainability can be made an essential part of developing and realising this intentionality, often in conflict with narrow, myopic market considerations. In stable environments it is possible to realise a chain of prognosis – planning – execution – control and realise progress though corrective repetition of the cycle. Knowledge essentially preceeds action in this chain, meaning that the most important problem solving occurs at the beginning of the project and its results form a stable blueprint for action. In evolutionary environments the action possibility is setting a complex anticipatory adaptive attitude, and looking for modification possibilities of spontaneous evolution. We can try to evaluate these modifying actions according to their efficacy, effectivity and efficiency. Evaluating efficacy, effectivity and efficiency belongs to aspects of instrumental evaluation. Assessing scientific potential enables more and more profound technological transformations in our natural environment including biological nature itself. Realising goal critiques, also in social terms, not only a critique of instruments for our goals or a further critique even of our basic values and our existing self-identification would indicate the level of needed new evaluation work with emerging technologies of highest transformation potential. One has to think of the ethical content of such evaluations as evaluation of possible human cloning, or the construction of „chimeras” or the goal of „human improvement”. It is essential to see in this respect that our recent innovation capabilites cannot be simply evaluated from an „applied ethics” point of view. Some new technological possibilities urge for reinterpreting what a human being „is”. With some new technological developments the perspective of realising an „engineering relation” to ourselves on the level of genetic identity and the needed open self-criticism without any historically transmitted final barrier to reduce questions essentially emerges simultaneously. The question is then what sort of and how with continuity, the system side and breakthrough changes should and can be integrated. I emphasized that complex processes are self-organizing and can only be modified. Somebody may get the misleading perspective and think that this is a real decrease of human capability, in comparison to the ambitious visions based on successes with goverment of simple processess. But this is a misperception. To accept this we should just think first of the very limited range of determinisitic processes in the real world and second of the possibilities how processes, sensible to the initial conditions may change their direction or how the cascadic effects of positive feedback loops may


produce an „incomparable” high return.11 How some innovation efforts get direction and how will trend and irreversibility be realised in the process of interaction with the environment? How can this progress be recognised and modified for the expected goal or for the modification of the goal? The process of innovation is a repeated mixed process of falling in path-dependence as the term is usually used, actually in past dependence, as I shall clear a bit later and realising path creation.12 With the adaptation made „in time” a cascade of positive feedbacks may start, and realises as „disproportional” return or/and solidification of the direction of possible further change. On the demand side standardised regulation or network effects may improve the return, among other things, on the supply side the scaling up, the diminishing costs, the entrenchment of expectations, learning by using, or the diminishing costs of coordination may cause the same effect. Instead of suffering from past-dependence to use the term by Antonelli of developing some path dependence can stabilise emerging breakthrough innovation and early exploration of its sustainability characteristics may belong to the merits of the breakthrough innovation.13 „Incremental” innovation inside a paradigm is „puzzle-solving”. That means that we know (actually we have a well entrenched expectation) that the solution exists and we can concentrate on the research to find the way to it.14 Trials are then made to solve the „puzzle” in the Kuhnian sense. Any radical innovation is, in contradiction to this, a type of exploration of some chunked knowledge base that first leads to new problem identification. Trials are then first made on the problem formation level. In most complex cases at the very beginning we even more or less do not know what we want to produce as product. We try to formulate problems and problems may not have solutions. In that complex and hence uncertain process in which numerous decision constraints have a formative role, steady monitoring, looking for „weak signs” and the expectations partly based upon them have an essential role.15 It is important to see how differently those reflect the complexity of the process, the uncertainty, the constraints that are somehow involved in radical innovation. They reflect differently on the limited resources, the possible paths, etc. The innovator (individual, group, firm) typically envisions some linear way and prepares the roadmap of expected successful work. A concentric way of thinking is realised with this. First the goal will be set, then the environment as an ensemble of supporting and hindering issues. The innovator assesses its goal in the expectation that it is realisable and the intermediary stages are assessed as containing obstacles that can be somehow mastered. A psychological

11 Trying to change the direction of development is already a usual instrument in looking for breakthrough innovations. An early case was with developing small drivers for computers that provided for a new consumer layer. 12

Perhaps the most important pioneering work in assessing path creation is of Raghu Garud, Peter Karnoe (Eds.): Path Dependence and Creation, 2001

13

Cristiano Antonelli 2008, p.260. “Past dependence defines the element of irreversibility that becomes a source of impediment to adapting passively to unexpected conditions”…” Path dependence defines the results of actions of a variety of interacting agents bounded by irreversibility but able to collectively change their technology and create new knowledge.” 14 The Kuhnian „puzzle” is exactly differentiated from a „problem” because it has a solution. 15 In general, uncertainty has an „ontological” cause (complexity of the issue) and an epistemic that still just a few pieces of information have been gathered.


element is essential to this type of speech.16 With the belief in the possible realisation the innovator’s story of the uncertain future produces some performativity. It functions to realise the needed alignment too. The critics assess the issue in the opposite way. Their expectations provide for an opposite performativity and urge dis-alignment. While exact issues do not leave space for this opposition, innovators and critics together realise that paradox situation that is typical for uncertain situations. The actors of an uncertain situation reflect in opposite ways on the uncertainty. (NB! Nobody knows the „truth”, for this would mean the (according to an extreme expectation, even punctual prognostisability of the future of which they are constitutive factors in interaction with the uncertain environment. In many cases there is no chance to identify the type of relations either.) With this the dynamic of the realisation of radical innovations will be penetrated with pragmatic necessity by expectation cycles that are in opposition to each other.17 Considerations of sustainability aspects are not an exception to this uncertain assessment. To improve the process you essentially need concerned approaches. The best approach to manage complexity in a sustainable way is multiplying the perspectives. Expectations are based on comparison of scenarios. The instruments that promote the „alignment” or „dis-alignment” get an essential role especially in the early, „hot” phase of the dynamic of looking for radical innovations. (This is the period in the schematic presentation of the innovation dynamic by the Sandia Lab, when only the „crazy persons” believe in the success.) The opposite scenarios both are the elements of the strategic intelligence to assess the future potentials. If the support of the realisability of the radical innovation is not much more in this starting phase than the belief that an idea might become realised in some way then the very basic interest of the actor committed to the investigation brings him to the strategic task of aligning all the needed factors (actors and things) that are identified to be essential to the success. Society should force out, if needed to widen this aligning process, to lead to integrated sustainability criteria and to win support of those who are committed to these. As mentioned, linearisation is an essential instrument in this process of persuasion. The construction of the ordered set of factors makes a believable narrative for the strategic alliances and reinforces as ideology the alliance in the different constellations of the dynamic.18 It produces a real drama based on facts as much as possible and on mathematical formulations. As a drama it has its communicative and literature aspect, by necessity. At this point it is especially evident how essential the value components of the drama are. Referring to values, for example to the values involved in the so called „grand challenges”, adds an essential reinforcement to expectations that are necessarily (still) based on a very low factual base. It is a further important question how the linearising prejudice that emerges from the need for a positive ideology in the uncertain situation gives way to a more complex strategy that more adequately reflects on the complexity and uncertainty of the dynamic. To put it differently, while the early linearisation provides for some early commitment the rough effects of the uncertain 16 Now, that Obama recently cut the federal support for research for hydrogen driven cars giving advantage for a more promising alternative you find the immediate reaction as “insider” evaluation as follows: You do it when we are very close to the tipping point. 17 Just one example of the up-to-date expectation analysis for innovation processes see N. Brown, et al:, Researching expectations in medicine, technology and science: theory and method, 2005. 18 The emerging and multiplying irreversibilities promote the development of special paths because they gradually make easier the action in one, and simultaneously more difficult in other directions.


environment constrain to give place for more complex scenarios. Scenario building develops from the original rather simplistic variants to more articulated and structured scenarios. This can be done when it is possible to take into account the interaction of the selection environment and the possible actions, when the outline of the possible „history of future” is made. The integration of the ecosystem approach and the ever raising technological capability asks rather serious basic questions. With the ever raising capability of realising breakthrough innovations the human actor becomes a conscious agent in reproducing nature, a double process of mutual mediation is realized. Meanwhile it has to continuously learn about itself what it could be. Temporary results of this process give temporary forms to sustainability. As we can see today moving on the edge of chaos and exploring and utilising the space of the possible new should be integrated with the ability to preserve itself and the natural environment as base of its changing existence. This is an approach to realise a process of human history of nonconverging, open ended character.

CONCLUSION Looking for sustainable innovations emerges as a special task. Innovation for sustainability is subject of a special discursive process (in which calculations play the serving role), to avoid social contingency and ambiguity. In this relation I mention a less usual question: is sustainability a neutral issue? Whose innovation and ‘sustainability’ do we speak of? In what type of society what type of sustainability will get the dominant role and what the effects will be on life of the people? With this formulation I just intend to indicate my view that there isn’t any such thing as sustainability „in general”. Sustainability can get different formulations and depends on the context in which it is formulated, just as different conceptualisations of „progress” express different social linkages. In this way we speak about sustainable unity of nature and indigenous tribes or possible unity of nature and high tech nowadays. Sustainability now may be producing processual identity by anticipatively integrating the dynamic process of repeated attacks of radical novelty and breakthroughs into a „sustainable” nature that provides for enhancing possibilites for the human being conscious of its tasks to reproduce its life base.

REFERENCES 1. St. A. Kauffman, Origins of order: Self organization and selection in evolution. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press, (1993). 2. T.G. Gill, Reflections on researching the rugged fitness landscape. Informing Science: the International Journal of an Emerging Transdiscipline, 11, 165-196, (2008). 3. Ágnes Fésüs and Imre Hronszky: The Paradigm of Masterman (In Hungarian) in: Kuhn és a Relativizmus, Budapest, L’Harmattan, 2007, pps. 129 – 144. 4. Th. S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Chikago, The University of Chikago Press, (1962) 5. T.J.B.M. Postma and F Liebl, How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool? Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72. pps. 161- 173 (2005) 6. A. Van de Ven et al, The Innovation Journey, New York: Oxford University Press, (1999).


7. R. Garud and P. Karnoe (Eds.): Path Dependence and Creation, Lawrence Earlbaum Associates, 2001 8. Cristiano Antonelli, Localised Technological Change, Routledge, p. 340. (2008) 9. N. Brown et al, Researching expectations in medicine, technology and science: theory and method, Positioning paper for the York Workshop of the ‘Expectations Network’, 23 June 2005.


Learning, Teaching and Implementing: What is Sustainability? Carolyn J. Fausnaugh Assistant Professor, College of Business, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901, (321) 674-7375, fax (321) 674-8896, [email protected], http://cob.fit.edu/ Abstract. This essay describes the author’s personal journey to an increasing awareness of the need for incorporating “sustainability thinking” in university curricula across disciplines. Awareness without action is hollow. The essay describes the process by which sustainability thinking is incorporated into the experience of every student graduating from the Florida Tech College of Business. Keywords: Sustainability, Sustainability Thinking, Cultural Values, Industry Analysis PACS: 1.40.-d, 89.65.-s, 89.65.Gh

INTRODUCTION “At the moment many humans (I am most familiar with Americans) remind me of termites – creatures mindlessly consuming their habitat without conscious thought or recognition of the long term implications of their actions.”, May 23, 2009, Carolyn J. Fausnaugh, PhD. I am reminded of my Australian student Paul Waite, whose frequent comment to me was “it is very difficult for the fish to study the water.” I lived in Australia for three years, leaving the U.S. for Australia in June 1999 and returning to the U.S. in time to teach spring semester 2003. Thus, I was living and working in Australia for a sufficiently long period that I began to be aware that my own cultural assumptions impacted what I observed about the environment, about others and how I framed those observations in my thinking. Perhaps I qualified as a “fish out of familiar water” for some part of that period of time!

RECENT HISTORY WITH LONGER TERM SIGNIFICANCE POTENTIAL Among the experiences during this period which etched their way into my long term memory are watching TV for twenty-four hours as the arrival of the new millennium was celebrated around the world – and observing that symbolically, the new millennium first began on a small island in the Pacific and arrived in Asia several hours before it was celebrated in the U.S. It was during this time, through the eyes of non-American media, that I experienced the highly contested U.S. election of November 7, 2000 between Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush III. The election


results were not finalized until December 13, 2000. Al Gore won the popular vote but George Bush was the new president. It was also during my overseas stay that the U.S. experienced the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 followed by the anthrax scare that began September 18, 2001. Thanks to CNN we saw the second airplane hit the World Trade tower live – beamed half a world away as it occurred. On September 10, 2001 the New York Stock Exchange Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) high for the day was 9740.44. This was not an all time high. In fact, the DJIA all time high to this point was 11908.50 reached January 14, 2000 and the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Reference Dates indicate that the U.S. was in a recession at the time of the September 11, 2001 attacks. If the average age of U.S. students graduating from college Spring 2009 is 21 to 22 years, these students were 13 to 14 years old during the unfolding of these and other recent events with potential historical importance.

ECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY At the moment, May 2009, the world is in the midst of a global economic storm. Economic measurements indicate a recession that is the worst we have seen since the Great Depression. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research dated the peak of the last United States business cycle and the beginning of this recession as December 2007[1]. As of today, the recession is at least 17 months long and estimates are it will continue for a minimum of several more months. It may ultimately be the second longest documented period of recession in U.S. history[2]. Jeffrey Gaten, currently retired, believes the current economic events represent diminishment if not collapse of U.S. style capitalism in the eyes of the world. Gaten says we are entering a period when there will be great competition for new ideas on how to structure economies. Who is Jeffrey Gaten? His career includes having “worked with government, serving on the White House Council on International Economic policy under President Richard Nixon (Republican) and as Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade under President Bill Clinton (Democrat). In the 1980s, he worked on Wall Street as managing director of first Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy September 15, 2008, and then the Blackstone Group, a private equity firm. In 1995, he was named Dean of the Yale School of Management in New Haven, Connecticut, a position he held until 2005.”[3] Professor Lawrence Jacobs of the University of Minnesota and Desmond King of Oxford University have just published an article titled “America’s Political Crisis: the Unsustainable State in a Time of Unraveling”.[4] At the writing of this chapter, it is not possible to know how the global economy will restructure itself. It is safe to say it will be significantly different from the recent past as governments grapple with our public policy framework and the need for stability in financial institutions if humans are to live sustainably and in peace.[5]


CULTURAL VALUES AND SUSTAINABILITY The seeds for our circumstances are embedded deep in cultural values that were not only encouraged but also stimulated during the Bush administration. This period ended with the Democratic landslide of the 2008 election. Evidence of these cultural values and the media’s culpability in diffusing and perhaps intensifying the intent of what is said can be found in an often misquoted statement of former President George W. Bush. The speech was delivered at Chicago O’Hare airport on September 27, 2001, just sixteen days after the tragic events of September 11, 2001 and nine days after anthrax mailings first postmarked September 18, 2001 shattered deeply held American feelings of safety. These events had rendered the New York Stock Exchange inoperable for several days and had grounded air travel. The full quote is “When they struck, they wanted to create an atmosphere of fear. And one of the great goals of this nation's war is to restore public confidence in the airline industry. It's to tell the traveling public: Get on board. Do your business around the country. Fly and enjoy America's great destination spots. Get down to Disney World in Florida. Take your families and enjoy life, the way we want it to be enjoyed.”[6] The U.S. government’s September 2001 advocacy to maintain the American culture without change, in the face of threats, is made even more tangible in a September 18, 2001 quote from then defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld at a Pentagon press conference: “We have a choice, either to change the way we live, which is unacceptable, or to change the way they live, and we chose the latter.”[7] Evidence of the public reinforcement of this theme to continue life as usual and not change in the face of threat continued to be re-iterated for some time.

MEDIA AND SUSTAINABILITY Simultaneously, but with less media reinforcement – until the candidacy and election of now President Barack Obama – are messages of concern over sustainability of the physical environment. On May 24, 2006 Al Gore, the presidential candidate who lost out to George W. Bush, III in the contested presidential election of 2000, released a documentary titled “An Inconvenient Truth” to support his efforts to educate the public around the world about the threat of climate change. On February 1, 2007 Al Gore’s work received recognition by his nomination and ultimate receipt of the Nobel Peach Prize.[8]

LEARNING AND TEACHING SUSTAINABILITY What is taught only matters to the extent that students learn. As faculty, our impact is restricted by our student’s individual interpretation of what we are presenting for learning and how they will apply that which they learn under our guidance. In areas such as sustainability thinking we are at the beginning of conceptualization. As a strategic management and entrepreneurship professor, I have struggled to determine how the standard curriculum should be augmented or changed. When I returned from Australia (I also taught in Singapore), I saw the United States and its culture with different eyes and understanding. I found the experience of living in a


culture that discussed sustainability (Australia) inspired me to seek my own knowledge and understanding of the topic. As I watched the above historical events unfold, I began my quest and found little that was written in ways that made sense to my management, strategic management, and entrepreneurship academic framework. I found a new awareness that the first Earth Day was April 22, 1970 – 39 years ago.[9] I thought about how little progress seemed to have been made and how I, might be able to add intellectual energy to progress. I found The World Commission on the Environment and Development (often referred to as the Brundtland Commission) defined sustainability as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” in 1987 – 22 years ago. Although the definition is intriguing, the definition seems difficult to operationalize in the context of the frameworks from which I learn, teach, work, and live. Psychologists have long debated whether human thought drives behavior or human behavior drives thought. Although agreement is not reached on which way the action - interaction between thought and behavior goes, it is established that an interaction exists and interventions are required to jumpstart the process, whichever way it goes. Thus, ways to conceptualize and operationalize, tasks to be undertaken are the foundation for progress in constructing a culture and world that is more sustainable.

FACILITATING STUDENT LEARNING TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABILITY THINKING In my classes, students learn to analyze industries and submit a significant written assignment in which they perform an industry analysis. One day I had the thought that if society was going to make progress in transforming itself to a more sustainable form, then sustainability thinking needed to make its way into the management curriculum - indeed all curriculums – around the globe. I incorporated a requirement for students to write a section of their industry analysis on the sustainability issues facing their chosen industry. The first semester, spring 2007, I did not provide a lecture or discussion on the topic. I did post some resources on the course website. The students tried to write something meaningful, and, all except for a student from Germany, failed miserably to demonstrate any understanding of the topic. I had no idea I was asking the students to do something they would find so difficult. The students’ difficulty with this section of the assignment led me to invest some considerable time in doing my own literature search. What I considered usable materials to support an industry analysis were not to be found. I found only one book titled Sustainable Strategic Management (2003) and a few academic articles in the sciences and engineering literature, but not very much in the management literature.[10] My own failure at finding usable materials in a reasonable time led me to devise an ongoing joint learning project between the students and myself. I call this undertaking the Management Students’ Sustainability Project. Together, the students and I work on developing what we are calling a “Sustainability Framework.” The first semester, fall 2008, students were placed in groups of three students and given the following as written instructions:


1. Identify the major topics and subtopics in the emerging field of sustainability analysis. 2. Arrange the topics into a “Framework.” By framework I mean an outline of topics arranged in a way that seems logical to the group. 3. Present your “Framework” to the class. The class as a whole will work to devise a single “Framework” for the remainder of the assignment. 4. From this single “Framework” each group will select one area and prepare a research paper setting forth the sustainability issues associated with the topic. What are the issues? What are the opposing arguments, if any? What is the current status of proposed solutions? 5. Submit your papers both electronically in the drop box and in bound hard copy for grading. The electronic copy will be placed in a digital library and be available to students in the future. Each semester the instructions evolve as I learn more about sustainability thinking and incur new problems in guiding the students – that is, graduating seniors. Sustainability thinking is an important task facing us all. What is taught only matters to the extent that students learn and recall as they go forward with their lives. This fact is further restricted by our students own interpretation of what we are presenting for their learning and how they will apply that which they learn in the future. The student instructions for spring 2009 appear in Appendix A. Each class is told that I will investigate finding a publisher for their work once I think our framework is sufficiently saturated and enough reports of sufficient quality have been accumulated. My intent is for the students’ names to appear as authors in a book of edited chapters. As a private university our classes are small and there are only three or four reports completed each semester. During spring semester 2010 there will be a large class which should complete at least ten reports. At that time I will revisit the prospect of publishing an edited book of the reports from the Management Students’ Sustainability Project. The project began fall semester 2008 and has run for four semesters thus far. The Framework from Spring 2009 is included in Appendix B. The Spring 2009 Framework incorporates the students’ realization, for the first time, that economic systems also need to be sustainable. Their first attempts at conceptualizing financial sustainability lead to the discovery that measurement is important to the management of systems. And, their papers reflect that currently available measurements are not adequate.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Thus far my management students seem to have a deeper understanding that we humans access the raw materials of our existence by mining the earth and its atmosphere, by converting the mined raw materials to physical goods which we then employ in our work or personal lives for some period of time. As we transform the resources the earth provides, we cast aside by-products. And ultimately, we cast aside the transformed raw materials as trash, as no longer useful. In the process we are transforming earth’s natural environment to a man made trash heap. The ultimate fear


is that earth will no longer be habitable. In fact, the students have discovered that one justification for government investment in space travel is access to additional raw materials for a time when we exhaust both the resources of earth and its carrying capacity as a habitat. And, the management students are also grappling with the more positive and opportunistic view that our landfills may someday represent a deposit of resources to be mined and re-used. That today’s opportunity lies in cradle to cradle manufacturing where the ultimate recycling of a product is built into its initial design; where our value system evolves to a mindset that automatically embraces the sustainability view to reduce, reuse, restore, and recycle. That is, Reduce the amount of inputs used to produce our physical goods. Design the original good with the later phases of the life cycle of goods in mind; Reuse our physical goods multiple times once they are produced. Reuse incorporates the ideas of reuse by the same user and having the infrastructure for additional users to be able to access the good for continued use; Restore a physical good to useful status when it becomes less desirable – whether through appearance or function. Restore goods before passing them to the final phase of the cycle. Seek additional uses for goods before the need to decompose; Recycle incorporates the idea of decomposition of the physical good into components that can be used as raw materials for the production of different goods. This decomposition and re-composition can take place at multiple levels. It is by the inculcation of sustainability thinking into our students’ abilities that we, as faculty, serve the needs of future generations.

REFERENCES 1.

National Bureau of Economic Research (2008). Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity. http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html Accessed May 25, 2009 2. National Bureau of Economic Research (2008). Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html Accessed May 25, 2009 3. Bisoux, T. (2009). A Return to Reality. BizEd May/June 2009. P 16-22. 4. Jacobs, L. and King, D. (2009). America’s Political Crisis: The Unsustainable State in a Time of Unraveling. Political Science and Politics, April 2009; 42,2; pg 277. 5. Samwick, A. A. (2009). Moral Hazard in the Policy Response to the 2008 Financial Market Meltdown. Cato Journal. Vol 29, No. 1 (Winter) p 131- 139. 6. Bush, G.W. (2001) Remarks by the President to Airline Employees. http://georgewbushwhitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010927-1.html# Accessed May 25, 2009 7. Rumsfeld, D. H. (2001). DoD News Briefing. http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/ transcript.aspx?transcriptid=1893 Accessed May 25, 2009 8. Gore, A . (2000) http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/algore2000concessionspeech.html Accessed May 25, 2009 9. Nelson, G. (1970). How the First Earth Day Came About. http://earthday.envirolink.org/history.html Accessed May 25, 2009 10. Stead, W. E. and Starik, M (2003). Sustainable Strategic Management. M.E. Sharpe.


APPENDIX A Florida Institute of Technology Management Students’ Sustainability Project Class Project 1: Investigating Issues in Sustainability Spring 2009 This is a multi-year project started Fall 2008 by students in BUS 4702 – Business Strategy and Policy. During the first semester of the project students undertook two activities. First they individually and then collectively developed a Global Sustainability Framework to guide the work. After developing the Framework they broke into groups and each group selected a topic in the framework to research and report back to the class. There are several motivations for undertaking this project. First is to develop our awareness of sustainability thinking. The most immediate application is the need is to provide ourselves with easily accessible resources for the PESTS portion of the Industry Analysis that is the College of Business Quality Enhancement Plan research project. But most important is the longer term need as global citizens to better understand the issues facing the world from a sustainability point of view. Each semester the BUS 4702 – Business Strategy and Policy students will review the Global Sustainability Framework as it was passed forward from the previous class and make recommendations for modifications, if needed. As the framework becomes more developed we will need a process whereby we consider whether further changes should be made – or not. At some point we will consider the framework sufficient saturated that the task of developing the framework will be considered complete and it will be frozen. In addition, each semester students will select a topic from the framework and prepare a report for inclusion in the library of reports that is accumulating. Each semester students will have access to all previous reports. These reports may include instructor comments but will not include the final grade awarded the student. Lastly, student authors will be identified as owners of the reports. This is a long-term project and we want our students to enjoy the benefits of authorship. If you use material from a previous report, please properly cite the report.


APPENDIX B Florida Institute of Technology Management Students’ Sustainability Project Global Sustainability Framework As of Spring 2009 I. Earth’s Natural Environment a. Land i. Land Conservation ii. Deforestation iii. Land for food production iv. Conservation v. Land pollution 1. Urban – waste from buildings, building buildings, household, etc. 2. Industrial waste – chemicals by products, leftover finished goods 3. Mining runoff vi. Space Exploration vii. Inhabitable planets b. Atmosphere i. Air pollution ii. Global Warming – greenhouse effect c. Oceans i. Saltwater pollution ii. Destruction to ecosystems/ aquatic life d. Water i. Water pollution ii. Drinking Pollution iii. Ground Supply iv. Drought e. Energy – non carbon based i. Energy Alternatives - Renewable 1. Solar Cells 2. Hydropower 3. Hydrogen 4. Geothermal 5. Wind 6. Biofuel ii. Energy Alternatives – Non renewable 1. Nuclear f. Energy – carbon based i. Petroleum based ii. Coal iii. Natural Gas


g. Energy - Conservation h. Natural Resources i. Resource depletion 1. Forests 2. Farmland 3. Minerals ii. Search for new resources 1. Space II. Health and Well being of Humanity a. Water b. Food c. Shelter d. Education i. Levels ii. Availability / Participation iii. Dogma e. Labor f. Disease i. Culture of Healthy Living Choices III. Economy a. Ideology & Politics i. Government Involvement ii. Globalization b. Population c. Employment Opportunities i. Jobs ii. Entrepreneurial Infrastructure d. Measurements e. Trends IV. Peace & Security a. War b. Corruption c. Urban violence V. Governments a. Types b. Tax structures i. Adequate revenue raising ii. Incentives iii. equity c. Laws d. Regulations e. Enforcement of Laws and Regulations f. Political Parties


Sustainability and Water Virender A. Sharma Associate Professor, Department of Chemistry, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne, FL 32901, (321) 674-7310, fax (321) 674-8951, [email protected], https://services.fit.edu/profiles/profile.php?value=83 Abstract. World’s population numbered 6.1 billion in 2000 and is currently increasing at a rate of about 77 million per year. By 2025, the estimated total world population will be of the order of 7.9 billion. Water plays a central role in any systematic appraisal of life sustaining requirements. Water also strongly influences economic activity (both production and consumption) and social roles. Fresh water is distributed unevenly, with nearly 500 million people suffering water stress or serious water scarcity. Two-thirds of the world’s population may be subjected to moderate to high water stress in 2025. It is estimated that by 2025, the total water use will increase by to 40 %. The resources of water supply and recreation may also come under stress due to changes in climate such as water balance for Lake Balaton (Hungary). Conventional urban water systems such as water supply, wastewater, and storm water management are also currently going through stress and require major rethinking. To maintain urban water systems efficiently in the future, a flexibility approach will allow incorporation of new technologies and adaptation to external changes (for example society or climate change). Because water is an essential resource for sustaining health, both the quantity and quality of available water supplies must be improved. The impact of water quality on human health is severe, with millions of deaths each year from water-borne diseases, while water pollution and aquatic ecosystem destruction continue to rise. Additionally, emerging contaminants such as endocrine disruptor chemicals (EDCs), pharmaceuticals, and toxins in the water body are also of a great concern. An innovative ferrate(VI) technology is highly effective in removing these contaminants in water. This technology is green, which addresses problems associated with chlorination and ozonation for treating pollutants present in water and wastewater. Examples are presented to demonstrate the applications of ferrate(VI) technology to meet the demand of water in this century. Keywords: Water, Water Quality, Ferrate (VI), Water Consumption PACS: 89.60.-k

INTRODUCTION Water plays a key role in almost every aspect of life such as industrial development, food security, good health, and clean hydroelectric energy. Water is also involved in aquatic biodiversity and in ecosystems. Because of such roles of water, a complex relationship exists between water demand and water supply relative to the size of the population and the multiplicity of end uses (Figure 1). Water is thus essential to achieve sustainable development. Globally, about 67 per cent of all water accessed for human use is absorbed by agriculture, mostly in the form of irrigation. Industry accounts for 19 % of the water utilized and domestic use accounts for only 9% (Table 1)[1]. There are major contrasts between developed and developing societies in their use of water. This is related to differences in economic activities and level of industrial developments in the two societies.


FIGURE 1. Source: United Nation Population Funds 2003

TABLE 1. Freshwater resources and withdrawals. Globally and by region, 1995


The global water consumption averages cited also vary largely among world regions. In Europe, the bulk of the water accessed for human use, 45 % is consumed in industrial activities; the agricultural proportion is 39 % and domestic consumption is 14 %. Comparatively, agriculture consumes 63 % of all water withdrawn for human use in Africa. The proportion used for domestic purposes is 8 % and for industry merely 4 %. The use of water and their method of returning used or surplus water into the system determine the overall impact to the environment. Though there is enough water at the global level, but access on regional level is limited. Some regions have annual rainfall happens during a short rainy season, but most of the water is lost in runoff and rivers flowing into the oceans unless it is stored. The construction of large dams is slow because of fear of environmental disruption, loss of agricultural lands, displacement of populations, and negative impact to downstream areas. In summary, the demand for water threatens the global progress towards sustainable development in the new millennium.

WATER AND PUBLIC HEALTH One billion people worldwide do not have access to clean water supplies. Approximately 50% of the world’s population does not have adequate water purification systems. Globally, the consumption of water has been increasing twice every twenty years, and if present rates of water consumption continue, five billion out of the world’s 7.9 billion people by 2025 will be living in areas where basic water requirement demands for drinking, cooking, and sanitation could not be met. The supply of safe drinking water is thus critically important because of the high possibility of developing life-threatening diseases from polluted or contaminated water resources. According to a United Nations report 10,000 to 20,000 children die each day from preventable water-related illness and 5,000,000 people die each year from water-borne diseases such as cholera, dysentery, and typhoid. Diarrhea and cholera kill an estimated 3 million people a year in developing countries, the majority of which are children under the age of five. Malaria accounts for 2.5 million deaths a year. All of these diseases have profound affects on pregnancy[2]. Recently, arsenic imposed significant risks to the health of people of many different countries. As many as 60-100 million people globally may be at risk of exposure to excessive levels of arsenic through drinking water. The toxicity of arsenic to human health ranges from skin lesions to cancer of the brain, liver, kidney, and stomach[3].

WATER BALANCE UNDER CLIMATIC PRESSURE LAKE BALATON, HUNGARY Lake Balaton, Hungary is shallow (3.2 m depth) with a mean surface of 592 km2. Because of the relatively large water surface compare to the size of catchment, Lake Balaton appears to be sensitive to climatic changes (Figure 2). Historically, the water levels fluctuated naturally within significantly broader boundaries than the present regulation interval. During the drought of 2000-2003, the largest recorded water drop occurred when lake lost 30 % of its total volume without any drainage through its single, regulated flow. Recently, attempts were made to predict the future water


balance of the lake[4-6]. More recently, a stochastic water balance simulation for Lake Balaton (Hungary) under climatic pressure was carried out[7]. The results suggest that the lake is not endangered under the expected climate changes. The sensitivity of the lake increases with the amplitude of climate change. Importantly, the uncertainty of the statistical estimates was found to have a larger effect on the lake than the anticipated climate change.

Figure 2: The Balaton catchment

FIGURE 2. The Balaton catchment

SUSTAINABILITY AND WATER CONSUMPTION The provision of safe drinking water becomes a greater challenge as socioeconomic development and population growth put additional demands on limited water resources. Women and children, especially those living in rural areas, are disproportionately affected. Rural women spend hours every day collecting and carting water, either from communal taps or directly from streams and rivers. Long cartage distances pose particular difficulties for elderly people and those with disabilities. Poor communities are often unable to afford the costs of maintaining pumps and boreholes, or lack the skills to do so.

SUSTAINABILITY OF URBAN WATER SYSTEMS Conventional urban water systems such as water supply, wastewater, and storm water management are currently going through major rethinking in order to carry out sustainable development[8-9]. New demands recommend an increase in use of recycled water. Theoretically, many countries have an institutionalized sustainable development that addresses social, environmental, and economic factors[10]. It is relatively easy to attain sustainability if systems incorporate a flexibility factor[11]. Flexibility allows incorporation of new technologies and adaptation to external


changes (for example society or climate change). An example of Fukuoka, Japan demonstrated that technically advanced solutions are feasible practically and economically for use of reclaimed water and rainwater in buildings. The argument was made to merge the water and wastewater sectors in order to increase resources available for the wastewater sector and to develop optimized conditions for urban water management. This approach will achieve sustainability of urban water systems. Sustainability of the system can be further enhanced by tacking water shortages through controlling the water demand and by utilizing reclaimed water and rainwater in Fukuoka.

A NEW TECHNOLOGY IN SUSTAINING WATER SUPPLY – FERRATE (VI) In general, drinking water utilities abstract water from various sources such as, ground water, rivers, streams, springs, or lakes in a watershed; small communities generally receive water from aquifers, while large metropolitan areas receive water from surface sources. In the future, population growth and unpredictable climate changes will cause high demands on water resources[12]. In most cases source waters require treatment before use in order to meet national quality standards. Among the oxidation processes applied in water treatment, chlorine is commonly used as a preoxidant and disinfectant. Although chlorine is effective in oxidizing pollutants, oxidation reactions produce biologically active by-products. Alternatively, ozone can be applied, which can effectively oxidize contaminants; however, due to the potential formation of the bromate ion and other organic by-products, ozonation is not always suitable. Ferrate(VI) (FeVIO42-) is an emerging water-treatment chemical, which can address the concerns raised by the currently used oxidants[13-14]. For example, ferrate(VI) does not react with the bromide ion; carcinogenic bromate ion would thus not be produced in the treatment of bromide-containing water[14]. Ferrate(VI) is a powerful oxidizing agent in aqueous media. Additionally, ferrate(VI) exhibits many advantageous properties, including a higher reactivity and selectivity than traditional oxidant alternatives, and a significant capability as a disinfectant, antifoulant, and coagulant[1516] . As shown in Figure 3, ferrate(VI) can perform multi-functional tasks in application of a single dose for water and wastewater treatment.


Figure 3: Ferrate(VI) – Water Supply Sustainability A Green Chemical for Water and Wastewater Treatment

O Disinfection Fe(VI)

Oxidation Fe(VI)

FeVI

O

O

O

Coagulation Fe(III)

FIGURE 3.

The spontaneous decomposition of ferrate(VI) in water forms molecular oxygen (eq 1). (1) 2 FeO42- + 5 H2O → 2 Fe3+ + 3/2 O2 + 10 OHThe by-product of ferrate(VI) is a non-toxic ferric ion, Fe(III). This fact makes ferrate(VI) an “environmentally friendly” oxidant. Additionally, the ferric oxide produced from ferrate(VI) acts as an effective coagulant that is suitable for the removal of metals, non-metals, radionuclides, and humic acids[15-16]. One major advantage of FeO42- ions over the other oxidants is its ability to remove for instance arsenic in water by two mechanisms; it oxidizes As(III) and also subsequently coagulates As(V) through Fe(III) hydroxide produced from Fe(VI) reduction (eq. 2)[3]. 3As(OH)3 + 2FeO42- + H2O → 3AsO43- + 2Fe(OH)3 + 5H+

(2)

Different molar ratios of Fe(VI) to As(III) were used to investigate the completeness of the removal of arsenic from water and the results are shown in Figure 4. The initial concentration of As(III) was 4.0 x 10-5 M. It is clear from Figure 4 that a ratio of 9:1 of Fe(VI) to As(III)) is required for complete removal of arsenic from the water sample[17].


120

Arsenic Removal, %

100 80 60 40 20 0 0

2

4

6

8

10

[Fe(VI)]/[As(III)] FIGURE 4. Removal of arsenic in water by Fe(VI). ([As(III)]o=4.0 x 10-5 M; air-equilibrated; pH=7.5]

Ferrate(VI) can achieve disinfection at relatively low dosages over wide ranges of pH. Fe(VI) treatment of water sources collected worldwide has achieved more than 99.9% kill rates of total coliforms. The dosages of ferrate(VI) required for complete destruction of coliform vary with the initial numbers of microorganisms in water before treatment with ferrate(VI)[16]. Ferrate(VI) is effective in killing E. coli with a performance superior to hypochlorite. Disinfection tests of sodium ferrate(VI) on spore-forming bacteria show that aerobic spore-formers are reduced up to 3-log units while sulfite-reducing clostridia are effectively killed by ferrate(VI). Both bacteria are resistant to chlorination. Species that are susceptible to Fe(VI) include Bacillus cereus, Bacillus subtils, Streptococcus bovis, Staphylococcus aureus, Shigella flexneri, Streptococci faecalis, Salmonella typhimurium, and Canadida albican. Low concentrations of ferrate(VI) rapidly inactivate virus f2 at pH 6-8 in water and secondary effluents[16]. Ferrate(VI) can decompose microcystins, a commonly occurring toxin, by effectively oxidizing its amino acids. Endocrine disruptor chemicals (EDCs) are compounds that mimic natural hormones in the endocrine system thus cause adverse effects on human and wildlife. Examples of EDCs include natural steroids hormones, synthetic hormones, alkylphenols, bisphenol-A, and phthalate plasticizers. In recent years, several studies have found a variety of EDCs in surface waters[18]. In addition to EDCs, pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) have also been found in the aquatic environment[18]. Although levels of pharmaceuticals have been determined in the concentration range of ng/L to- µg/L, mixtures of pharmaceuticals even at ng/L can inhibit cell proliferation. EDCs and PPCPs may thus affect the ecology of the environment. For example, some EDCs have demonstrated mutagenic and carcinogenic effects[19]. Of


the several compounds of PPCPs, detection of antibiotics is of concern due to the possibility of increased bacterial resistance. Most estrogens and pharmaceuticals react rapidly with ferrate(VI). The half-lives of the oxidation of emerging pollutants of concern, steroid estrogens (17αethynylestradiol, EE2, estrone, E1, β-estradiol, E2, and estriol, E3), phenolic EDCs (bisphenol, BPA, nonylphenol, NP, and octylphenol, OP) and antibiotics (sulfonamides and tetracyclines) are in seconds. Complete destructions of estrogens, bisphenol, sulfamethoxazole, and tetracyclines by ferrate(VI) can be achieved in seconds[20]. The applicability of ferrate(VI) to remove phenolic EDCs has been studied in test solutions and wastewater treatment works (WwTW) (Jiang et al., 2005). Test solutions contained one of the EDCs (BPA, E1, and E2) in a sodium sulfate solution at concentrations of either 0.1 or 1 mg L-1. Ferrate(VI) effectively reduced the concentrations of EDCs to low levels (tenths of ngL-1) at a dose of 13-17 mgL-1 of Fe in ferrate(VI) (Figure 5).

120

Removal (%)

100 80 60 40 20 0 OP

BP E1 Pollutant

NP

E2

HE

FIGURE 5. Ferrate(VI) oxidation of endocrine disruptor chemicals by ferrate(VI). (OP-4-tertOctylphenol, NP-4-Nonylphenol, BP-Bisphenol A, E1-Estrone, E2-17β-Estradiol, HE-16αHydroxyestrone)[21].

The percentage of removal was 99.99%. The use of ferrate(VI) in WwTW samples also showed good results at a ferrate(VI) dose of 1-5 mgL-1 as Fe[21]. Interestingly, BPA, which was present in high concentration (1209 ng L-1) was reduced to low level (46 ng L-1). The concentrations of 4-tert-octylphenol and 16α-hydroxyestrone were reduced to below the detection limit. The concentrations of other EDCs were also reduced by 99.99 % by increasing dose of ferrate(VI) (Figure 5). The ratios of ferrate(VI) doses to EDCs were found to be 16.7 and 10.0 (mg ferrate(VI) : mg EDC) for testing solutions and wastewater sample, respectively, to achieve more than 99.99% removal of EDCs. More importantly, ferrate(VI) was able to reduce the chemical oxygen demand values of the samples. The removal percentages of the total


chemical oxygen demand and dissolved chemical oxygen demand were approximately 45%[21]. In summary, the innovative ferrate(VI) technology can be applied for removing EDCs and pharmaceuticals in water and wastewater treatment. The application of ferrate(VI) offers the additional treatment by coagulation/solid phase adsorption via its reduced Fe(III) species, and thus future studies are needed to evaluate the overall effect of oxidation and coagulation/adsorption on the removal of the EDs and pharmaceuticals and their reaction products. Overall, ferrate(VI) can be used as a treatment chemical to meet the water demand of this century.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Author wishes to thank Dr. Ria Yngard for giving useful comments to improve the quality of this chapter.

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.

United Nation Population Funds (2003): In: Global Population and Water- Access and Sustainability. World Health Organization (2002): Roll Back Malaria Fact Sheet. http://www.who.int/inffs/en/fact094.html Sharma, V.K. and Sohn, M. (2009): Aquatic arsenic: toxicity, speciation, transformations, and remediation. In: Environment International vol 35(4), pp 743-759. Koncsos, L., Honti, M., Somlyody, L. (2005): Statistical analysis of the water budget of Lake Balaton. (in Hungarian), Vizugyi Kozlemenyek, “Balaton” special issue, Budapest. Novaky, B. (2005). Water transfer and climate of Lake Balaton. (in Hungarian), Vizugyi Kozlemenyek, “Balaton” special issue, Budapest, 2005. Novaky, B. (2008). Climate change impact on water balance of Lake Balaton. In: Water Science and Technology. vol 58(9), pp. 1865-1869. Honti, M., Somlyody, L. (2009): Stochastic water balance simulation for Lake Balaton (Hungary) under climatic pressure. Water science and technology vol. 59(3), pp 453-459. WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development (1987). In: Our Common Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. United Nation (1992): In: Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. http://www.unep.org Harding, R. (2006): Ecologically sustainable development. Origins, implementation and challenges. In: Desalination vol 187, pp. 229-239. Berndtsson, J.C. Jinno, K. (2008): In: Sustainability of urban water system: example from Fukuoka, Japan. In: Water Policy vol 10, pp. 501-513. Diaz-Cruz, M.S., Barcelo, D. (2008): Trace organic chemicals contamination in ground water recharge. In: Chemosphere vol 72, pp. 333-342. Sharma, V.K. (2007): A Review of Disinfection Performance of Fe(VI) in Water and wastewater. In: Water Science and Technology. Vol 55(1-2), pp. 225-230. Sharma, V.K. (2008): Oxidative transformations of environmental pharmaceuticals: kinetics assessment. In: Chemosphere vol 73(9), pp. 203-208. Sharma, V.K. (2002): Potassium Ferrate(VI): An Environmentally Friendly Oxidant. In: Advances in Environmental Research vol 6, pp. 143-158. Sharma, V.K., Kazama, F., Jiangyong, H., Ray, A.K. (2005): Iron(VI) and Iron(V): environmentally-friendly oxidants and disinfectants. In: Journal of Water and Health vol 3, pp. 4558.


17. Sharma, V.K., Dutta, P.K., Ray, A.K. (2007): Review of kinetics of chemical and photocatalytic oxidation of As(III) as influenced by pH. In: Journal of the Environmental Science and Health. Part A vol 42, pp 997-1004. 18. Sharma, V.K., Li, X.Z., Graham, N., Doong, R.A. (2008): Ferrate(VI) oxidation of endocrine disruptors and antimicrobials in Water. In: Journal of Water Supply: Research & TechnologyAQUA, vol 57(6), pp. 419-426. 19. Khetan, S.K., Collins, T.J. (2007): Human pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment: A challenge to green chemistry. In: Chemical Review vol 107, pp. 2319-2364. 20. Sharma, V.K., Anquandah, G., Yngard, R.A., Kim, H., Fekete, J., Bouzek, K., Ray, A.K., Golovko, D. (2009): Nonylphenol, octylphenol, and bisphenol-A in the aquatic environment: a review on occurrence, fate, and treatment. In: Journal of the Environmental Science and Health. Part A. vol 44(5), pp 423-442 (2009). 21. Jiang, J.Q., Yin, Q., Zhou, J.L., Pearce, P. (2005): Occurrence and treatment trials of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in wastewater. In: Chemosphere vol 61, pp. 544-550.


Sustainable Water Supplies:Reducing The Organic Matter Content of Potable Water Mary Sohn Chemistry Department, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 W. University Blvd Melbourne, FL 32951 USA, (321) 674-7379, [email protected] Abstract. As freshwater becomes a limiting factor in sustainable development, water treatment processes which can efficiently oxidize both anthropogenic and natural sources of organic matter are becoming crucial. While many anthropogenic organic compounds found in freshwater pose a direct risk to human health, natural organic matter such as humic acids, pose an indirect risk through the production of disinfection byproducts resulting from chlorination. Removal of dissolved natural organic matter before disinfection of potable water is recommended for the production of potable water in water treatment facilities. Several promising developments in dissolved organic matter oxidation are described including hydroxyl radical, advanced oxidation processes and ferrate (VI). The feasibility of applying these processes to water treatment on a large scale is largely dependent on cost. Keywords: Dissolved organic matter, humic acid, fulvic acid, water treatment, advanced oxidation processes PACS: 89.60.-k

INTRODUCTION Although water is an abundant resource on the Earth as a whole, about 97% of it is ocean water and thus too salty for most uses by terrestrial organisms. Although freshwater is replenished daily by the hydrologic cycle, precipitation is not uniform over the Earth’s surface and neither is the distribution of freshwater-loving human populations. There is no doubt that freshwater resources are becoming scarce in many parts of the world and potable water is becoming a limiting factor to sustainable development. Because man has many different uses for freshwater, there are different levels and types of contamination of water supplies that can be tolerated and thus different types of water treatment required before water use is deemed safe. The treatment of water can be categorized by intended use [1]: • Purification for domestic use • Treatment for specialized industrial use • Wastewater treatment for reuse or release For instance, water used simply for cooling purposes in power generation or industrial processes can be reused with levels of pathogens, dissolved organic matter (DOM) or heavy metals that would make it unfit for human consumption. Water quality is regulated differently by different governments depending on water use. In the United


States, the Clean Water Act (CWA) of 1972 and its subsequent amendments set a total maximum daily load (TMDL) of pollutants for release into waterways which if exceeded is supposed to lead to pollution input reduction, if enforced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Municipal wastewater is normally treated by publicly owned treatment works (POTW’s) and discharge is subject to control by the CWA. Drinking water in the U.S. is regulated by the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) of 1974 and its amendments. The SDWA sets acceptable limits, e.g. maximum contaminant levels (MCL’s) and maximum contaminant level goals (MCLG’s) for drinking water. MCL’s and MCLG’s are listed on the EPA web site (http://www.epa.gov/safewater/mcl.html) for organic and inorganic pollutants of concern in drinking water. MCL’s are set as close as possible to MCLG values, the difference limited by economically feasible analytical technology for measurement of pollutant concentrations [2]. In areas of high population density, drinking water is “reused” or “recycled” water, hence treatment of potable water supplies is becoming more intense. Many of the substances regulated by the EPA under the SDWA are organic compounds, largely reflecting growing concern over potentially mutagenic and carcinogenic substances with potentially terminal and debilitating effects from chronic exposure at very low levels. Anthropogenic input of potentially toxic organic substances such as insecticides, herbicides, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), polychlorinated and polybrominated diphenyls, etc. are often due to accidental spills, leakage of underground storage tanks or agricultural applications. The elimination of organic solids in wastewater treatment is accomplished through coagulation often combined with filtration. Coagulation is often enhanced by the addition of either aluminum or iron salts (usually sulfates) which form gelatinous hydroxides which adsorb both organic and inorganic pollutants and precipitate out. While primary and secondary treatment of municipal water is effective in reducing biological oxygen demand (BOD) and in removing most pathogens, drinking water often requires tertiary treatment which may involve costly filtering with activated charcoal or synthetic resins and the addition of disinfective (oxidizing) chemicals. Most commonly chlorine and ozone are currently used for disinfection, although ferrate(VI) is gaining popularity [3]. While the removal of potentially toxic organic compounds from drinking water has been well publicized, more recently concern over disinfection byproducts of naturally occurring organic materials found ubiquitously in natural waters has been gaining attention.

NATURAL ORGANIC MATTER IN AQUEOUS SYSTEMS Natural organic matter (NOM) can be divided into low molecular weight compounds, distinctly molecular in nature and of specific class (carboxylic acids, amino acids, steroids, etc.) and humic substances. Humic substances are ubiquitously present in soils, sediments and natural waters and are polymeric materials of high molecular weight (hundreds to thousands of Daltons). Humic substances are categorized as humic acids, fulvic acids or humin on the basis of solubility. Humic and fulvic acids are both base soluble and are typically extracted by base from soils and


sediments or by resins from water, while humin is not extractable by base and does not occur in water, but exists in the sediment, tightly bound to inorganic constituents, such as clays in contact with the water. Traditionally, the isolation of dissolved humic substances has been achieved by the use of Amberlite® XAD-8 (nonionic, macroporous, pore size: 25 µm, methyl methacrylate ester resin) as suggested by the International Humic Substances Society (IHHS). Under acidic conditions, HS acidic groups are largely protonated, and adsorb onto the surface of the resin material. Then the organic acids are desorbed by alkaline solution. Humic acids are acid insoluble while fulvic acids are both acid and base soluble. This classification scheme based largely on solubility is summarized in Figure 1.

NOM

0.45 µm pore

Soil, Sediment, Water

Particulate

Non-humic Substances Known bimolecular classes (carbohydrates, polysaccharides, proteins, amino acids, lipids, waxes, resins) Humin Insoluble in water

Dissolved (DOM)

Humic

Humic acid Insoluble in water under acidic conditions (pH