Photovoltaic Solar Generation Prediction System

Photovoltaic Solar Generation Prediction System by M.Sc. Eng. Hermes José Loschi Advisor: Prof. Dr. M.Sc. Eng. Yuzo Iano LCV/DECOM/FEEC/UNICAMP

April 19, 2017

1. What is the Problem? • As the penetration of photovoltaic solar generation increases, one quandary continues to receive much attention focusses on how to gracefully integrate this nonconventional, variable form of energy into existing power grids and eventually emerging power grids, as well as into electricity markets; • In this context the concept of forecasting renewables, deals with the fundamental task of managing uncertainty via accurate prediction of output from photovoltaic solar generation, and has increasingly take on the important role in the operation of power grids; April 19, 2017

M.Sc. Eng. Hermes José Loschi

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2. Who will benefit from the prediction information?

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3. Overview of State-of-the-Art • The management of uncertainly is a key challenge in grid operations and the probabilistic forecasts will play an increasingly important role toward this end as the penetration of photovoltaic solar generation continues to increase;

• In the present days, system operators in regions with significant penetration of photovoltaic systems typically have their own forecasts, sometimes multiple forecasts for improved the accuracy, and to guide their decision-making processes, such as:  Maintenance schedule during periods of low-prediction photovoltaic solar generation;  Scheduling to real-time dispatch;  Determined how much operating reserves are required to maintain system reliability based on historical forecast errors. April 19, 2017


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3. Overview of State-of-the-Art • A recent trend in prediction of photovoltaic solar generation is the interest in understanding and predicting rapid changes in the power output. Such ramp events, particularly in the downward direction may create challenges for reliable power grid operations, and a ramp prediction is therefore seen as an important operational tool among some system operators of the power grids; • A ramp event can be characterized according to three features: direction, magnitude, and duration;

• Ramps prediction are most relevant for the very short-term time horizon (0-6h), hence the use of numerical weather predictions (NWP) has been of limited value for this purpose so far. In reality, what constitutes a significant ramp will depend on the weather and geographic conditions of the place of interest for photovoltaic solar generation. April 19, 2017


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4. Knowledge: background •

Since so many different aspects can influence in prediction of photovoltaic solar generation, mainly for this prediction does an intermediate step of global solar irradiance prediction, the probabilistic forecasting to predicting ramp events is increasingly used to deal with the factor of global solar irradiance dependence to the dynamics atmospheric and presence and level of clouds;

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In this context, our latest research proposed an algorithm for the development of transition probability matrices for prediction ramp events, based on the Markov model;

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This algorithm can be useful and contribute to higher forecast accuracy and to improve the reliability of this systems in local sites where there is the absence of a long amount of solarimetric dates and clouds patters information, a reality of Brazilian scenario that was one of the motivations.

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4. Knowledge: background

Fonte: H. J. Loschi, “Proposal of a global solar irradiance prediction complementary method for short-term, based on Markov processes,” State University of Campinas, 2017 April 19, 2017


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4. Knowledge: background HIGH VARIABILITY

LOW VARIABILITY Fonte: H. J. Loschi, “Proposal of a global solar irradiance prediction complementary method for short-term, based on Markov processes,” State University of Campinas, 2017 April 19, 2017


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5. Knowledge: current research Among the main objectives for the development of a photovoltaic solar generation prediction system, which indicate their importance, include: •

Alternative means and original to address the issue of short-term prediction of solar irradiance through a wireless sensor network;

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Consolidate the proposed mathematical method for predicting solar irradiance;

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Development of a sensing infrastructure and modular communication with a solar tracking system, and an analysis tool and data processing;

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Option to optimize the control of switched power converters (from DC to AC), energy management strategies control, power fluctuation control and energy market, based on information from the photovoltaic solar generation prediction system.

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6. Publications and references COMPLETE ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS 1. LOSCHI, HERMES JOSÉ; IANO, YUZO ; LEÓN, JULIO ; MORETTI, ANGELO ; CONTE, FABRIZZIO DAIBERT ; BRAGA, HORÁCIO . A Review on Photovoltaic Systems: Mechanisms and Methods for Irradiation Tracking and Prediction. Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, v. 06, p. 187-208, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/sgre.2015.67017 2. E. R. CARDOSO, PAULO ; IANO, YUZO ; R. M. CARVALHO, SILVIO ; J. LOSCHI, HERMES ; F. PINHEIRO, RAFAEL ; V. SILVA, THIAGO . Técnicas de Projeto para Atendimento aos Requisitos de Cobertura de Estações de FM. SET EXPO PROCEEDINGS, v. 1, p. 41-47, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18580/setep.2015.1.6 3. LOSCHI, HERMES JOSÉ; LEON, JULIO ; IANO, YUZO ; FILHO, ERNESTO RUPPERT ; CONTE, FABRIZZIO DAIBERT ; LUSTOSA, TELMO CARDOSO ; FREITAS, PRISCILA OLIVEIRA . Energy Efficiency in Smart Grid: A Prospective Study on Energy Management Systems. Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, v. 06, p. 250-259, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/sgre.2015.68021 4. LOSCHI, HERMES JOSE; IANO, YUZO ; FERRAREZI, ROSIVALDO ; FERRAREZI, NEUSA ROCHA ; CONTE, FABRIZZIO DAIBERT . Metrological Analysis of Sunflower Prototype. Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, v. 06, p. 41-47, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/sgre.2015.63004 5. LOSCHI, HERMES JOSE; I. YUZO ; CONTE, FABRIZZIO DAIBERT ; FERRAREZI, ROSIVALDO ; FERRAREZI, NEUSA ROCHA . Solar Tracking System Installed with photovoltaic (PV) Panels to Connection Grid Tie Low Voltage (Sunflower). Energy and Power, v. 4, p. 49-53, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5923/j.ep.20140403.01

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6. Publications and references COMPLETE ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN CONFERENCES PROCEEDINGS 1. H, J, LOSCHI; IANO, Y. . Biomass Cogeneration with Green Coconut Husk: an analysis of efficiency energy solutions. In: Euro-Global Summit and Expo on Biomass, 2016, Birmingham. ScientificTracks Abstracts: Journal of Fundamentals of Renewable Energy and Applications, 2016. v. 6. p. 1-53. http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/20904541.C1.014-020 2. LUSTOSA, TELMO C. ; LOSCHI, HERMES J. ; IANO, YUZO ; MORETTI, ANGELO . The importance of integrated network management and telecom service through time. In Proceedings of the 2015 International Workshop on Telecommunications (IWT), 2015, Santa Rita do Sapucai ISBN 978-146-737-623-5. 2015 3. IANO, Y. ; T. LIMA, I. ; J. LOSCHI, H. ; C. LUSTOSA, T. ; S. MESQUITA, O. ; MORETTI, A. Sustainable Computing and Communications - Internet Broadband Network of Things Applied to Intelligent Education. In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Smart Cities and Green ICT Systems, 2015, Lisbon ISBN 978-989-758-105-2. 4. H, J, LOSCHI; LEON, JULIO ; LUSTOSA, TELMO C. ; IANO, YUZO ; DUENAS, A. ; MAKLUF, C. A. ; CAMARGO, E. ; R. M. CARVALHO, SILVIO ; MORETTI, A. ; E. R. CARDOSO, PAULO . What Will 5G Be? Trends for nanotechnology, video systems, networks management, radio frequency, spectrum management, and regulation in Brazil. In: Brazilian Technology Symposium, 2015, Campinas. Proceedings of Brazilian Technology Symposium, 2015. v. 1. p. 1-4. ISSN: 2447-8326 5. FREITAS, PRISCILA OLIVEIRA ; H, J, LOSCHI ; IANO, Y. ; RODRIGUEZ, A. A. D. ; TIEGHI, L. F. ; NASCIMENTO, D. N. . Multi-Integration Solar Shading System (M-ISSS). In: Brazilian Technology Symposium, 2015, Campinas. Proceedings of Brazilian Technology Symposium, 2015. v. 1. ISSN: 2447-8326

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6. Publications and references COMPLETE ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN CONFERENCES PROCEEDINGS 6.

I. YUZO ; LOSCHI, HERMES JOSÉ . Solar Tracking System Installed in Modules with PV Panels to Connection Grid Tie Low Voltage. In: International Conference on Inter Disciplinary Research in Engineering and Technology, 2014, Palladam, India. Solar Tracking System Installed in Modules with PV Panels to Connection Grid Tie Low Voltage, 2014. ISBN: 978-81-929742-0-0

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NASCIMENTO, D. A., LOSCHI, H. J.; IANO, Y., CARVALHO, S. R. M. Instalações de Sistemas de Geração Solar Fotovoltaica: um estudo sobre sistemas de aterramento, proteção contra surto e descargas atmosféricas. Brazilian Technology Symposium, 2016. V.1. ISSN: 2447-8326. ISSN: 2447-8326

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TELMO CARDOSO LUSTOSA, HERMES JOSÉ LOSCHI; YUZO IANO. O Recorde das TIC’s nos jogos Olímpicos do Rio 2016. Scientific Poster Section of the Brazilian Technology Symposium, 2016. V.1. ISSN: 2447-8326. ISSN: 2447-8326

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HERMES JOSÉ LOSCHI, LUIZ ANTÔNIO DE SOUSA FERREIRA, YUZO IANO, SILVIO RENATO MESSIAS DE CARVALHO, PAULO EDUARDO DOS REIS CARDOSO e DOUGLAS AGUIAR DO NASCIMENTO. Evaluation of Solar Position and Angle of Incidence Calculation of the DIN5034 and NREL SOLPOS Algorithms. Scientific Poster Section of the Brazilian Technology Symposium, 2016. V.1. ISSN: 2447-8326. ISSN: 2447-8326

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6. Publications and references ARTICLES ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION 1. FREITAS, P. O. ; LOSCHI, HERMES J. ; IANO, Y. ; RODRIGUEZ, A. A. D. ; CONTE, FABRIZZIO DAIBERT ; TIEGHI, L. F. . A Design Concept Study of Multi-Integration Solar Shading System (MISSS). International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering (SEEE2015), 2015. 2. NASCIMENTO, D. A. ; TIEGHI, L. F. ; I. Yuzo ; SIQUEIRA, M. D. A. ; LOSCHI, HERMES J. . Cidades Inteligentes: Um estudo prospectivo sobre redes de sensores sem fio. Sinergia (IFSP. Online), 2017. 3. HERMES LOSCHI, LUIZ ANTONIO FERREIRA, YUZO IANO, DOUGLAS NASCIMENTO, PAULO CARDOSO, SILVIO CARVALHO AND FABRIZZIO CONTE. EMC Evaluation of Off-Grid and GridTied Photovoltaic Systems for the Brazilian Scenario. In: 2017 International Conference on Energy Economics and Energy Policy, ICEEEP 2017, Berlin, Germany, April 7-9, 2017.

BOOK PUBLISHED 1. LOSCHI, HERMES JOSÉ. Compreendendo um Sistema Fotovoltaico: uma abordagem didática conceitual. 1. ed. São Paulo: Baraúna, 2015. v. 1. 150p. ISBN: 978-854-370-427-2

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6. Publications and references ARTICLES SUBMITTED 1. DOUGLAS AGUIAR DO NASCIMENTO; YUZO IANO; CLAYTON DUARTE PESSOA; HERMES JOSÉ LOSCHI; LUIZ ANTONIO DE SOUSA FERREIRA; JOSÉ ANTÔNIO DONIZETE ROSSI. Analysis of PD Patterns in Inductive Coupling at On-Site Measuring for Instrument Transformers. Submitted in April 2017 to IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation. 2. LUIZ ANTÔNIO S. FERREIRA, ABEL ALEJANDRO D. RODRIGUES, HERMES JOSÉ LOSCHI, YUZO IANO and DOUGLAS A. NASCIMENTO. A Solar Tracking System based on Solar Time for Integrated with Photovoltaic Systems. Submitted in April 2017 to Expert Systems With Applications International Journal.

MASTERS DISSERTATION 1. LOSCHI, HERMES JOSÉ. Proposal of a global solar irradiance prediction complementary method for short-term, based on Markov processes. Campinas, SP : [s.n.], 2017.

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7. Short presentation Hermes José Loschi. Holds MSc degree in Electrical Engineering (State University of Campinas - 2017) and Graduated in Control and Automation Engineering (Paulista University - 2014). Currently he is a PhD Candidate by Department of Communications, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering at State University of Campinas, and a researcher at the laboratory of visual communications (LCV). The main topics of interest are Wireless Sensor Network, Internet of Things, Smart Grid, Broadcasting, Biomass, Photovoltaic Systems Applications, Solar Energy, Photovoltaic Solar Generation Prediction Systems and Solar Tracking The Prof. Yuzo Iano has graduated (1972), master's degree (1974) and a Ph.D. degree (1986) in Electrical Engineering from the State University of Campinas (Unicamp). Since then it has been working in a technological production field, with 1 patent granted, 8 patent applications filed and 36 projects completed with research and development agencies. Successfully supervised 29 doctoral theses, 49 master's dissertations, 74 undergraduate and 48 scientific initiation works. He has participated in 100 master's examination boards, 50 doctoral degrees, author of 2 books and more than 250 published articles. He is currently Professor MS6 in RDIDP of Decom/Feec/Unicamp, Editor-in-Chief of the SET International Journal of Broadcast Engineering and General Chair of the Brazilian Symposium on Technology (BTSym). The main topics of interest are: processing and transmission of digital signals/images/video/audio/data, hdtv, digital tv, 3G/4G/5G networks, middleware, transmission/channeling/broadcasting of television signals, digital signal encoding , data transmission/storage, wireless sensor networks, photovoltaic solar generation prediction systems and smart / digital cities.