EML 4450/EML 5451: Energy Conversion Systems for Sustainability. Fall 2006 ...
To introduce the major methods of direct energy conversion. – thermoelectricity ...
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
EML 4450/EML 5451: Energy Conversion Systems for Sustainability Fall 2006 Instructors Prof. A. Krothapalli & Dr. Brent Greska Teaching Assistant: Mr. John Dascomb (
[email protected]*)
[email protected]* &
[email protected]* Class: TTH 10:15 - 11:30am * Preferred communication method
“f “The purpose of education is to bring out the best in you” Mahatma Gandhi
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Course Description This course will present the challenge of changing the global energy system so that it addresses the objective of greatly reducing the dependence on the finite fossil energy sources and move to the environmentally sustainable* energy sources. The emphasis will be on greenhouse gas emissions free energy production strategies, including renewable energy – solar, wind and biomass. Sustainable development: ability of humanity to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generation to meet their own needs
*
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Course Objectives • •
• •
•
To provide an understanding of the concept of sustainable future. To provide critical and thorough introduction to the subject of energy, its use and its environmental effects, especially global warming. To provide an understanding of the role of thermodynamic principles in energy conversion. To introduce the major methods of direct energy conversion – thermoelectricity, photovoltaics, thermionics and fuel cells. To provide a survey of renewable energy systems, solar, wind and biomass.
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Course Outline • • • • • • • • • • • •
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Energy systems in sustainable future The science of global warming The solar strategy Solar radiation characteristics Thermodynamic fundamentals for energy conversion systems Essentials of quantum physics Thermoelectric generators Photovoltaic generators Thermionic generators Fuel cells Other modes of direct energy conversion Renewable energy sources Solar energy Wind energy Other energy Socio-economic assessment of energy supply systems
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Text Book and References Text Book: Sustainable Energy, Tester, Drake, Driscoll, Golay and Peters, MIT Press, 2005, ISBN 0-26220153-4
References: 1.
Renewable Energy by Brent Sorensen, Third edition, Academic Press, 2004,
2.
Direct Energy Conversion, Stanley W. Angrist, Fourth Edition, Allyn and Bacon, 1982.
3.
Energy and the Environment, James A. Fay & Dan S. Golomb, Oxford, 2002.
4.
Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems, Gilbert M. Masters, Wiley Interscience, 2004.
5.
Fundamentals of Thermodynamics, Sonntag, Borgnakke & Van Wylen, 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc,1998.
6.
Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes, Duffie & Beckmann, 2nd Edition, Wiley Interscience, 1991
7.
Wind Energy Explained, Manwell, McGowan & Rogers, Wiley, 2002
8.
Fuel Cell Systems, Larminie & Dicks, 2nd edition, Wiley. 2003.
9.
The Solar Economy, Hermann Scheer, Earthscan, 2002.
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Other Matters
Look at the “Syllabus document” on the website for details on tests, exams and grading at http://www.sesec.fsu.edu Test 1: October 5, 2006 Test 2: November 13, 2006 Final Exam.: As scheduled by the COE
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The Future of Energy, Today Oil prices broken record highs Hurricane Katrina disrupts major oil & gas supplies in US Nuclear energy is back Booming growth in China and India has strained the energy supply New energy investments have exceeded the one trillion mark Russia turns off its gas to 60 million people in Ukraine One out of every four people continues to live without access to modern energy
Source: World Energy in 2006, World Energy Council, June 2006
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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Chinese oil demand
Largely driven by the demand from China and India
Hurricane Katrina effect
The demand for natural gas is growing which may result in prices that will be substantially higher than the current price.
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The Future of Energy, 2030 Energy demand is set to raise by 60% in the period up to 2030 Global energy investment requirement from now until 2030: $ 17 trillion Annual average: $ 550 billion About 1% of global annual GDP This investment level would increase to create access to electricity to 2 billion people without supply today Each country has a distinctly different energy sector Financing the required investment by the developing nations is a challenge
Source: World Energy in 2006, World Energy Council, June 2006
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Map of Six Basic Country Groupings
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
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Other Country Groupings
*
* Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
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World Population
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World Population Population rankings of major world regions continue to shift in favor of developing regions
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World Population Good News: The pace of global population growth is on decline To stabilize or reduce population: Increase women’s health Education employment Women as equal participants in all aspects of society
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World Gross Domestic Product History
Projections
80
Trillion 1997 U.S. Dollars
High Economic Growth Case 60
Reference Case
40 Low Economic Growth Case 20
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year
Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2004
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World Gross Domestic Product
Future long term predictions should be treated with caution.
Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2006
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Top Ten GDP Countries
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Top Ten GDP Countries - 2005 Country USA
GDP in PPP GDP per capita in (US $ trillion) terms of PPP - US $ 12.49 41,800
Annual Growth rate in % 3.5
China
8.859
6,800
9.9
Japan
4.018
31,500
2.7
India
3.611
3,300
7.6
German yUK
2.504
30,400
0.9
1.83
30,300
1.8
France
1.816
29,900
1.4
Italy
1.698
29,200
0.1
Russia
1.589
11,100
6.4
Brazil
1.556
8,400
2.4
Source: CIA Fact Book
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Annual GDP Growth
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GDP Growth for Selected Countries
More likely scenario
GDP growth will bring urban shift in population India: 28% in 2000 41% in 2035
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Growing Consumerism In China & India $12,000 yearly income buys a life style to what an annual income of $40,000 gets in US In India, 150 - 200 million people are with US $13,750 per capita income and 7 million new consumers (20 - 34 year olds) will be added yearly for the next decade - Changing life styles with more women working outside homes, increased attitude to indulge today than save for tomorrow and double income families. Similar situation exists in China with a population size of about 300 million people and it is expected to grow to about 500 million within a decade. Since aspirations of people around the globe being the same, such economic growth will generate an unprecedented demand for energy supply.
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Energy Units
1 barrel (bbl) of crude oil = 42 gallons = 6.12 x 109 joules 1 Mtoe = million tones of oil equivalent = 1013 joules 1 quad = 1015 BTU = 1.055 x 1018 joules = 2.93 x 1011 kWh = 172 x106 bbl of oil equivalent = 36 x 106 metric tones of coal equivalent = 0.93 x 1012 cubic feet of natural gas equivalent
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World Marketed Energy Consumption History
Projections
800 High Economic Growth Case
1015
Quadrillion Btu
600
Reference Case
400 Low Economic Growth Case 200
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
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World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region History
Projections
300 45% 43%
Quadrillion Btu
250 200
Industrialized
Share of World Total
150 Developing 100 12%
50 EE/FSU 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
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Energy Intensity by Region
Thousand Btu per 1997 U.S. Dollar of GDP
History
Projections
70 60 50 EE/FSU
40 30
Developing
20 10 Industrialized 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
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World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type History
Projections
250
39%
Quadrillion Btu
200
Oil
150
Natural Gas
25% 23%
100 Coal Renewables
50
Nuclear
8% 5%
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
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World Oil Consumption and Production Consumption
2004 Production:
Production
NY Times, 8/15/04
140.0
Million Barrels per Day
120.0 100.0 80.0
Other EE/FSU OPEC
Other Developing Asia 120.8 Industrialized 91.5
120.6
91.1
77.1
77.0
60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 2001
2010
2025
2001
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
2010
2025
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Persian Gulf Oil Productive Capacity
10.2
Saudi Arabia
22.5 3.7
Iran
4.9 2.8
Iraq
6.6
United Arab Emirates
2.7 5.2 2.4
Kuwait
Qatar
0.0
2001 2025
5.0 0.6 0.8
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Million Barrels per Day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
25.0
30.0
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World Oil Reserves by Country (1/1/04) Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq UAE Kuwait Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Mexico Qatar Algeria Norway Kazakhstan Brazil Azerbaijan Oman Rest of World
World Total: 1,266 Billion Barrels
0
50
100
150
200
250
Billion Barrels
Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49 (December 22, 2003), pp. 46-47.
300
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Logistic Equation
Qo :Ultimate production; tm: Year of peak production; a: the decay rate
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US Cumulative Oil Production
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US Annual Oil Production
Source: Prediction of world peak oil production, Seppo A. Korpela, Ohio State University, 2003
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World Oil Production
USA World
Source: Prediction of world peak oil production, Seppo A. Korpela, Ohio State University, 2003
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World Oil Cumulative Discovery and Production
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Annual World Oil Production
Source: Prediction of world peak oil production, Seppo A. Korpela, Ohio State University, 2003
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World Oil Production - Hubbert’s Method
World oil production through the year 2000 is shown as heavy dots. Hubbert’s method is used to obtain most likely future production. The dashed lines show the probable production rates if the ultimate discoverable oil is 1.8 trillion barrels - the lower curve or 2.1 trillion barrels - the upper curve Source: Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton Univ. Press, 2001.
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Estimated Duration of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves
Source: The Solar Economy by Hermann Scheer, Earthscan, 2002.
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World Oil Prices History
Projections
2002 U.S. Dollars per Barrel
70 60
Low Oil Price Case Reference Case High Oil Price Case
50 40
“International Energy Agency warned that if oil prices remained at $35 a barrel, or $10 above their 2001 levels, that would slash at least half a percentage point from world G.D.P. the next year” NY times - August 11, 2004 - Global oil demand expected to exceed forecasts, Report says
30 20
$45 a Barrel will reduce the world GDP by 1% from 2001 levels (~ $450 Billion)
10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
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Natural Gas Consumption by Region 2001
2010
2020
2025
200 176
Trillion Cubic Feet
154
150
151
134 114 105
100
90
50
0 IEO2004IEO2003
Industrialized
IEO2004IEO2003
EE/FSU
IEO2004IEO2003
Developing
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World Natural Gas Reserves by Region (1/1/04) Middle East EE/FSU Africa Developing Asia North America World Total: 6,076 Trillion Cubic Feet
Central & South America Western Europe Industrialized Asia 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Trillion Cubic Feet
Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production," Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49, December 22, 2003, pp. 46-47
3000
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World Coal Consumption by Region 3.5
Billion Short Tons
3
1980 2001 2025
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Industrialized Countries
EE/FSU
China and India
Other Developing Countries
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World Recoverable Coal Reserves in 2001 United States FSU China Australia Subbituminous and Lignite Bituminous and Anthracite
India Germany South Africa Yugoslavia
World Total: 1,083 Billion Short Tons
Poland Rest of World 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Billion Short Tons World 2025 Consumption ~ 7 billion short tons/year (Short ton: 2000 lbs = 907.185 kg; ton= 1000 kg) Coal will last at least 150 years
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Summary - Fossil Fuel Future Dwindling reserves versus worldwide growth in demand will lead to energy prices beyond consumer’s ability to pay - leads to political tension and violence. Conventional oil and gas reserves will probably be exhausted between 2030 and 2050. Coal is the worst possible fossil fuel (most polluting of the fossil fuels and the one that produces the greatest amount of the greenhouse gas CO2 per unit energy), but the world has at least a 150 year supply of coal. Conclusion: Sustainable future is not possible if we continue to rely on fossil fuel for energy. Therefore, a massive and immediate shift towards renewable sources is inevitable.
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Not a New Idea “Within a few generations at most, some other energy than that of combustion of fuel must be relied upon to do a fair share of the work of the civilized world.”
Robert H. Thurston - 1901 in the Smithsonian Institution annual report. Recommended Reading: Plan B 2.0 by Lester R. Brown, W.W. Norton & Company, 2006 http://www.earthpolicy.org