PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE ...

7 downloads 5947 Views 798KB Size Report
"Analysis of Residential Solid Waste at Generation Sites". ... Dyson, B., Chang, N.-B., “Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban ...

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

M. Pons, C. Pérez, J.J. de Felipe, E. Jover

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

OUTLINE 1. INTRODUCTION -

Modelling MSW generation State of Art Study case context: Andorra

2. METHODOLOGY

3. RESULTS - Scenarios

4 CONCLUSIONS 4.

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1. Why? - Utility • Waste management planning • To achieve accurate and reliable waste information

-Municipal waste collection system -Land demand for landfilling waste - Incinerators capacity evaluation

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1.

Traditional statistical forecasting methods

• Time analysis correlation

• Regression analysis

1

High quantity and quality data required

1. H. A. Abu Qdais, M. F. Hamoda, J. Newham. "Analysis of Residential Solid Waste at Generation Sites". Waste Management & Research. Vol. 15. pp. 395-405, (1997).

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1. System Dynamics Modelling • Fuzzy, not-well defined environments Quality of  Quality of service

• Limited Li it d d data t • Large-scale complex systems • Causal loops

Tourist  Offer

Visitors

Infrastructures

Profits

Overnight

stays

Investments

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION 1. SD Modelling examples g p MSW generation in San Antonio 1

Waste generation, collection capacity and electricity in Dhaka 2

Based on economic and demographic information

1.Dyson, B., Chang, N.-B., “Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling.” Waste Management 25 (7), 669679, (2005). 2. Sufian, M.A., Bala B.K., “Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city.” Waste Management, 27(7), 858-868, (2007).

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA

I d Independent d t Principality P i i lit Population: 84 84.484 484 inhabitants Area: 468 km2 Pyrenees Tourism main economic activityy 10.193.749 visitors in 2008

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

Case Study context - Andorra 1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA

Tourists  2008 300.000

250.000

T TOURISTS

200 000 200.000

150.000

100.000

50.000

0

Data source: Tourism Department of Andorran Government

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

Case Study context - Andorra 1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA

MSW kg/person/day 1,40 1,35 1,30 1,25

kg

1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90

Data source: Environmental Department of Andorran Government

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS Balearic Islands: MSW Generation /person /day

Winter

1,5 kg

Summer

2,5 kg

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS TORREVIEJA URBAN WASTE 2001 1 TORREVIEJA URBAN WASTE 2001  8 7,5 7 6,5

10 6 kg

6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5

High g impact p of visitors flows on waste generation g

Lack of models integrating visitors influence

1. J.F. Vera Rebollo and J.A. Ivars Baidal, “Measuring Sustainability in a Mass Tourist Destination: Pressures, Perceptions and Policy Responses in Torrevieja, Spain.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11, 181-203, (2003).

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY

Model tackling with: - Data D t scarcity it - Importance of visitors flows

SD based on: - Economic - Demographic - Visitors flows

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION

POPULATION

TOTAL MSW GENERATION

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY: GDP

RESIDENT POPULATION

ECONOMIC

TOTAL MSW GENERATION

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS

TOURISTS

RESIDENT POPULATION

VISITORS

TOTAL MSW GENERATION

ECONOMIC

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS

ONE-DAY VISITORS

TOURISTS

RESIDENT POPULATION

VISITORS

TOTAL MSW GENERATION

ECONOMIC

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION

POPULATION

TOTAL MSW GENERATION

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

3. RESULTS: SCENARIOS

AS USUAL SCENARIO HYPOTHESIS: HYPOTHESIS Annual variation rate of variables POPULATION

+1%

Dolars

GDP 2400,0 2350,0 2300,0 2250 0 2250,0 2200,0 2150,0 2100,0 2050,0 2000,0 1950 0 1950,0 1900,0

GDP -1,2% 1,2%

TOURISTS

- 1,7 %

ONE DAY VISITORS - 1,3 %

+1 5% +1,5%

+3% 3%

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

4. CONCLUSIONS

• SD Model M d l iintegrating t ti d demographic hi and d economic i parameters as well as tourist flows • Correlation between visitor flows and MSW generation • Compulsory when studying tourist destinations FURTHER WORK • To validate the model • To model the recovering energy capacity • To collaborate with local administrations

PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

f their for th i collaboration ll b ti

f a fellowship for f ll hi

and

ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!