Dec 26, 2015 - GCM, BCC-CSM1.1 (CSMD,. 2005) under four different future GHG concentration trajectories for 2050 as adopted by the IPCC in its fifth.
PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF MEDICINAL PLANT OF LILIACEAE
Mountain Futures Conference: Nurturing seeds for change in the Anthropocene 1 – 4 March 2016 – Kunming, China
SANTOSH KUMAR RANA
Central Department of Botany Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
Introduction Plant Species Distribution and Trade
Anthropogenic Factors
Climate Change
Introduction More than 161 species of plants are traded as NTFPs, majority of them are MAPs with an annual transaction of Rs 2,500 million (Subedi, 2006) and almost 90% towards India (Pyakurel and Baniya, 2011) The middlemen are enjoying most of the benefits at the cost of the local people.
Case of bulbus Fritillaria cirrhosae (Unibract Fritillary Bulb): USD 65 / KG (in Manang NRs. 500 /kg (Ghimire et al. 2008) but in Kathmandu ~NRs. 15000/ kg) These economically important resources facing pressure from human land conversion, excessive collection and now climate change
Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don (Liliaceae) Common name : Fritillary Nepali name: Kakoli Chinese name: bei mu Status: Vulnerable in Nepal (CAMP, 2001) Bulbous perennial herbs; found in open steep slopes, alpinesubalpine meadows, shrubland (Nep., China, Eastern Asiatic, Bhutan, Sikkim, SE Tibet, N Myanmar – 3000-4600 m) Kakoli is used in a wide range of traditional, medicinal and commercial products
Economic analysis Value of bulbs depends cleansing, drying and packaging.
Cleansing
Drying
Packaging
Market Chain
Kakoli collected from National forest (Royalty: NRs. 5/kg)
Village level traders or collector collect and transport dried bulbs
Domestic purpose
90% illegally transported to Tibet
10% legally headquarters national market
to and
National market
Impact of climate change • Species distribution modelling technique was used to check impact of climate change in the distribution of this species • 9 climatic data and 2 topographic variables derived from DEM used. • GCM, BCC-CSM1.1 (CSMD, 2005) under four different future GHG concentration trajectories for 2050 as adopted by the IPCC in its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) .
Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal Santosh Kumar Rana1*, Hum Kala Rana1,Suresh Kumar Ghimire1, Krishna Kumar Shrestha1 and Sailesh Ranjitkar2,3 Journal: Journal of Mountain Science Date of Submission: 26th Dec., 2015 Status: Under Review
Shift in habitat suitability
Shift in habitat suitability Suitability 2050 Current RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Fritillaria cirrhosa 2 Km % 7484.79 10126.84 10028.94 7487.06 6822.58
5.08 6.89 6.82 5.09 4.63
N
Discussions In future (2050), F. cirrhosa tends to increase its suitability more in RCP 2.6(except under RCP 8.5) expanding range towards North in patchy habitat But the availability of this population in nature might decreases due to the increase in Human trade pressure on harvesting. The bulbous parts are widely harvested and traded illegally Otherwise with sustainable harvesting, the Fritillary population could drastically uplift the economic status as per the projected suitability in future climate scenario. Additionally, the substituted species could provide trade value controlling the population of Fritillary.
Concluding Remarks Individual, population, community, ecosystem, landscape levels Biological / Ecological
Patterns & practices of resource use, decision making system, local institutions & networks, management systems
Socio-cultural
Market demand, amount used, commercialization, enterprise, value addition, employment
Policy/legal Aspects Source: Adopted from Cunningham, 2001
References Subedi B. 2006. Linking Plant-Based Enterprises and Local Communities to Biodiversity Conservation in Nepal Himalaya. Adroit Publishers, New Delhi, India. Pyakurel D. and Baniya A. 2011. NTFPs: Impetus for Conservation and Livelihood support in Nepal. A Reference Book on Ecology, Conservation, Product Development and Economic Analysis of Selected NTFPs of Langtang Area in the Sacred Himalayan Landscape. WWF Nepal. Ghimire S.K., Sapkota I.B., Oli B.R. and Parajuli-Rai R. 2008. Non Timber Forest Products of Nepal Himalaya: Database of Some Important Species Found in the Mountain Protected Areas and Surrounding Regions. WWF Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal. CAMP. 2001. Conservation Assessment and Management Prioritization Report. International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada and Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation, Kathmandu, Nepal. Cunningham A.B. 2001. Applied Ethnobotany: People, Wild Plant Use and Conservation. Earthscan, London, UK.
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