Prediction of Wind Power and Reducing the Uncertainty for Grid Operators
Dr. Matthias Lange Dr. Ulrich Focken energy & meteo systems GmbH Oldenburg, Germany
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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background
energy & meteo systems GmbH:
services in energy meteorology
operator of wind power prediction system Previento
dispatcher workshops for wind power prediction
de-centralised energy management systems
surveys and studies
R&D
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Overview
Motivation
State-of-the-art
Research and development in Europe
Outlook
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Motivation wind power depends on meteorological conditions effective load pattern not regular anymore
load [% max. load]
Grid load without wind power
100
0 0
1
2
3 time [d]
4
5
6
7
Grid load including wind power
wind power contribution must be known in advance
need for wind power forecast FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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EEG: immediate exchange of wind power
e.on
Vattenfall Europe RWE
EnBW
online exchange of fluctuating wind power between TSO
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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EEG: immediate exchange of wind power
e.on
Vattenfall Europe RWE
EnBW
balancing effort according to proportion of consumption
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Basic Approaches to Wind Power Prediction
common use of numerical weather predictions
statistical systems: „training“ derive statistical relation between numerical weather prediction and power output of wind farm
physical systems: „equations“ describe wind field in terms of boundary layer meteorology FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Statistical Systems
example ISET system: artifical neural network training based on measurement data
numerical weather prediction
measurement power output
U V p T H
© ISET
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Physical Systems
explicit modelling of boundary layer
NWP data
100 m
hub height
height
1000 m
NWP data
10 m
geostrophic wind
wind speed FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Physical Systems
wind profile changes with atmospheric conditions 1000 m
geostrophic wind
hub height
height
100 m
stable
NWP data
10 m
wind speed FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Physical Systems
wind profile changes with atmospheric conditions 1000 m
geostrophic wind
100 m
hub height
height
unstable
stable
NWP data
10 m
wind speed FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Overview Previento Numerical weather prediction
Spatial refinement
Wind park modelling
Upscaling
Regional wind power forecast
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Overview Previento Numerical weather prediction
Spatial refinement
Wind park modelling
Upscaling
Regional wind power forecast
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Overview Previento Numerical weather prediction
Spatial refinement
Wind park modelling f
Upscaling
f f
Orography roughness Thermal stratification
Regional wind power forecast
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Overview Previento
Spatial refinement
Wind park modelling
Power
Numerical weather prediction
Wind speed
Upscaling
Regional wind power forecast Wind park geometry FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Overview Previento Numerical weather prediction
Spatial refinement
Wind park modelling
Upscaling
Regional wind power forecast
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Overview Previento Numerical weather prediction installed capacity
Spatial refinement
Wind park modelling
Upscaling
prediction time
Regional wind power forecast
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Individual Prediction Uncertainty
power curve
weather situation
2000
power [kW]
1500
1000
500
0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
wind speed [m/s]
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Dayahead Prediction for Germany (17 GW installed power)
power [MW]
prediction reality uncertainty
one week FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Operational Use
Kiss/ESS-Format: Direct Integration into Energy Management Systems
Muster
Datum aus Regelzone an Regelzone von Bilanzkreis nach Bilanzkreis
13.10.2005
Typ
WP
Kommentarbereich
Dayahead scheduling og power plants trading of conventional energy Intraday planning minimise balancing power
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
WP_MIN
WP_MAX
13.10.2005 07:35
Kontrollsumme [MWh]:
34772
bis 00:00 00:15 00:30 00:45 01:00 01:15 01:30 01:45 02:00 02:15 02:30
13.10.2005
Deutschland Min-Konfidenz Max-Konfidenz
Erstellungsdatum Erstellungsuhrzeit Prognosezeitpunkt
von
13.10.2005
D D Wind
MW 00:15 00:30 00:45 01:00 01:15 01:30 01:45 02:00 02:15 02:30 02:45
MW 2789 2789 2789 2789 2789 2749 2708 2668 2628 2547 2466
MW 2209 2209 2209 2209 2209 2176 2141 2107 2073 2005 1936
3369 3369 3369 3369 3369 3322 3275 3229 3183 3089 2996
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How accurate are wind power predictions today ?
evaluation of Previento prediction for Germany (based on Nov 2004 – Juni 2005)
source: EnBW FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Forecast Accuracy Changes over Seasons
monthly evaluation of day ahead prediction
winter summer
source: EnBW FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Evaluation of single wind farm
wind farm in Northern Germany (17 MW, flat terrain)
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Summary State-of-the-Art
wind power predictions established
used by grid operators, traders, power plant operators
important time horizons: intraday and dayahead
customers use predictions from different providers in parallel
uncertainty for risk assessement
training for dispatchers how to use predictions
significant improvements in accuracy during last year
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Research and Development (R&D)
two main approaches:
improve wind power prediction systems
enhanced modelling and new features
clever use of meteorological input
take advantage of the variety of available weather data
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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R&D – improvement of prediction systems example: European project ANEMOS
Benchmarking of approved prediction systems from DK, D, E, F, GB, GR, IRL
improvement: uncertainty, upscaling, offshore, complex terrain
implementation under common Shell
practical evaluation with end-users
http://anemos.cma.fr FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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R&D – clever use of meteorological input
fact: atmosphere is a non-linear chaotic system
idea:
don´t rely on one weather prediction only use different models or different forecast runs of same model
effect:
different weather models have different strengths and weaknesses the combination of different forecasts compensates errors of each single forecast
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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R&D – ensemble approach: GFS 12 h
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R&D – ensemble approach: GFS 24 h
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R&D – ensemble approach: GFS 48 h
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R&D – ensemble approach: GFS 96 h
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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R&D – Combination of European Weather Models
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R&D – Combination of European Weather Models
ECMWF + Previento
Lokalmodell + ISET model
Hirlam + Previento
Aladin etc. ... + Previento
combination tool 1. weather classification 2. combination of predictions
optimal wind power prediction for each individual forecast situation
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Summary R&D
intense international effort
close co-operation between scientific community and industry
hot topics
offshore, complex terrain, upscaling, uncertainty
ensemble predictions, combination of different weather models
significant potential for improvements
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Outlook future applications of wind power predictions
grid management
local wind power predictions to avoid grid congestion
storage management
compensate for fluctuations techniques: pumped water, compressed air, hydrogen
wind power on the energy market
announce schedule for production of wind farms trading on intraday and dayahead markets ability to provide control power
FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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Thank you for your attention!
energy & meteo systems GmbH Marie-Curie-Str. 1 26129 Oldenburg, Germany phone +49-441-36116470
[email protected]
www.energymeteo.de © 2005 energy & meteo systems GmbH FIC, 2nd Workshop, December 15-16, 2005, Berlin
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