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THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO’S GRAND RIVER BASIN: WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ISSUES Charles F. Southam , Ralph J. Moulton , Douglas W. Brown & Brian N. Mills Published online: 23 Jan 2013.

To cite this article: Charles F. Southam , Ralph J. Moulton , Douglas W. Brown & Brian N. Mills (1999) THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO’S GRAND RIVER BASIN: WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ISSUES , Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 24:4, 307-330, DOI: 10.4296/cwrj2404307 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.4296/cwrj2404307

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THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO'S GRAND RIVER BASIN: WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ISSUES Submitted June 1999: accepted November 1999 Written comments on this paper will be accepted until June 2000

Charles F. Southam,l Brian N. Mills,2 Ralph J. Moultonl and Douglas W. Brownl Abstract The Grand River basin is expected to be one of the more sensitive areas in Ontario to the warmer and drier conditions that may result from anthropogenic climate change. The basin has a large and growing urban population, is dependent on the Grand River for wastewater assimilation and for some municipal water supplies, has experienced significant droughts in the past century, is heavily regulated, and

is located well inland from alternative sources of water such as the Great Lakes.

Downloaded by [37.187.58.250] at 22:30 21 March 2014

Accordingly, the Grand River basin was the chosen focus of a recent study exam-

ining the possible effects and implications of climate change and variability on water supply and demand issues. The Water Use Analysis Model (WUAM) was applied to the Grand River basin using 21 scenarios of future surface water supplies, streamflow regulation, population and water use. The ability of the system to maintain adequate streamflow (target flows) at particular sites was assessed for each scenario. Modifications to operating procedures and additional reservoir capacity were shown to be moderately successful adjustments to all but the most severe streamflow scenarios tested. Though it is difficult to justify specific adaptive measures (such as new reservoirs) based on the findings of this study alone, sufficient evidence exists to warrant further and more soohisticated assessments of climate variability and change in the Grand River basin.

R6sum6 On s'attend d ce que le bassin de la riviri;re Grand soit l'une des r6gions les plus sensibles de l'Ontario aux conditions plus chaudes et plus sdches pouvant r6sulter du changement climatique anthropique. Le bassin possdde une population urbaine vaste et en pleine croissance, d6pend de la riviere Grand pour l'auto-6puration des eaux usees et pour certaines orovisions d'eau municipale, a connu des s6cheresses importantes au cours du sidcle dernier, est hautement r6gularis6 et est situ6 suffisamment d l'int6rieur, loin des autres sources d'eau comme les Grands Lacs. Par cons6ouent, le bassin de la rividre Grand a 6t6 le ooint central choisi pour une 6tude r6cente portant sur les effets et les cons6quences possibles du changement et de la variabilite climatiques sur l'approvisionnement en eau et portant aussi sur les problemes li6s a la demande. Le modele d'analyse de l'utilisation de l'eau (MAUE) a 6te applique au bassin de la riviere Grand a l'aide de 2.1 sc6narios de provisions

d'eau de surface futures, de r6gularisation des cours d'eau, de population et d'utilisation de l'eau. On a 6valu6 pour chaque sc6nario la capacit6 du systdme de 1. Water lssues Division, Atmospheric Environment Branch, Envrronment Canada-Ontario Region 2. Adaptation and lmpacts Research Group, Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada

Canadian Water Resources Journal

Yol.24. No.4, 1999

maintenir des cours d'eau suffisants (d6bits cibles) ir des sites particuliers. Des modifications aux m6thodes d'exploitation et une capacit6 de r6servoir supplementaire se sont r6v6lees 6tre des rajustements mod6r6ment r6ussis a tous les sc6narios test6s sauf ceux des d6bits les plus lourds. Bien qu'il soit difficile de justifier des mesures d'adaptation precises (par exemple de nouveaux r6servoirs) en s'appuyant uniquement sur les r6sultats de cette recherche, il existe des preuves justifiant des evaluations plus pouss6es et plus raffin6es du changement et de la variabilit6 climatiques dans le bassin de Ia riviere Grand.

Introduction Anthropogenic climate change is one of the most visible and studied global environmental issues of the past 15 years. There is scientific consensus that human activities have increased the concentration of carbon diox-

ide (COr) and other greenhouse gases

in


the atmosohere. There is also

scientific agreement that increasing concentrations of these radiatively active gases will lead to an enhanced greenhouse effect and a warmer global climate (IPCC, 1995). lt has been

suggested that some

of the

warming observed over the past century cannot be totally explained by natural climatic variability and that the climate record now contains evidence of human influence (lPCC, 1995). An entire discioline dedicated to the assessment of regional climate change impacts and response strategies has emerged to

the ramifications for sensitive human activities and interests. One of the most researched impact topics, due to its obvious sensitivity to climate, is the water resource sector, though much of the literature is restricted to the effects of climate on explore

hydrology and future water supplies. Research on the implications of climate change for water users, water managers and their decision-making is less extensive but growing (Frederick et al., 1997; Koshida et al., 1997; Hofmann et a/., 1998). This paper is based upon a recent study completed by Environment Canada Adapting to the lmpacts of Climate Change and Variability in the Grand River basin: Surtace Water supply and Demand /ssues (Southam et al., 1997). The study was one of several contributions to the Great LakesSt. Lawrence Basin Project, a regional assessment of the oossible imoacts of cli308

mate change and variability and potential adaptation strategies (Mortsch et al., 1998; Mortsch and Mills, 1996). In this paper we explore the implications of streamflow conditions resulting from potential climate variability and change on two primary water management concerns within the Grand River basin in Ontario: wastewater assimilation and municipal water supply. Information

was derived from literature and policy reviews, discussions with stakeholders, and

a water supply/demand modeling exercise.

The structure of the paper follows the methodological steps suggested by Carter et al. (1994\ and Mortsch and Mills (1996)

for conducting assessments of

climate change impacts and adaptation responses.

The context of the Grand River basin, including important basin goals and objectives, is described and key water management concerns are introduced. Major components of the Water Use Analysis Model (WUAM) (Kassem, 1992) application are outlined and selected results are presented to illustrate the possible effects of future climate and socio-economic scenarios on wastewater assimilation and water supply. A general discussion of water management

implications, study assumptions and recommendations concludes the paper.

Study Area and Key Water Management Concerns The Grand River is the largest Canadian tributary to Lake Erie, draining an area of approximarely 6790 km2 (GRlC, 1982). The watershed, home

to more than

715,000

people (GRCA, 1997), is located in southwestern Ontario, west of the Greater

Toronto Area (Figure 1). FiftyJour local Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques Yol.24, No.4, 1999

area municipalities (cities, towns, town-


ships), eleven regional or county municipalities, two First Nations communities, and several provincial and federal government departments are involved in managing or using the water resources of the Grand River basin (Francis, 1996).

While the Grand River has always been a valued resource, its importance has shifted over time. Originally a primary source of power and transportation in the 1800s (Skibicki and Nelson, 1990), the river now meets ever-growing demands for wastewater assimilation, municipal water supplies

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1:

The Grand River Watershed (Source: Grand River Conservation Authority)

Canadian Water Resources Journal

Vol.24. No.4.1999

309

and recreation opportunities. An expanding

distributed lo The Grand Strategy steering

population in the central portion of the basin has generated concerns about the ability of the Grand River and its tributaries to meet future water demands without substantial and costly improvements to water supply and wastewater treatment infrastructure (GRCA, 1994; OMMA, n.d.). These and many other issues have been raised as part of The Grand Strategy, a shared management olan and vision for sustainable development of the watershed being coordinated by the Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA, 1994). The Grand Strategy Vision, written as a narrative 'State of the Grand

committee and reoresentatives from five technical working groups (water quality/ water managers; fisheries; hydrology and

River Watershed' address

to residents

in

the year 2021 , establishes qualitative goals and objectives for achieving sustainability in


the basin. Selected statements from

The

Vislon (GRCA, 1996a) pertaining to water supply and demand are listed below:

.

Today, the rivers and streams are measurably cleaner than they were twentyfive years ago.

. The Grand River orovides reliable sources of clean. ootable water which support urban and rural growth within the watershed. . Fluctuating river flows are controlled to minimize flooding and drought. . The Grand River is now considered a

groundwater; growth and development; and

heritage, tourism and recreation). The paper outlined concerns for three key water uses that may be affected by change: wastewater assimilation. municipal water supply, and recreation opportunities. The first two uses of water have enormous implications for growth and development in the basin. Future growth in the Grand River basin is limited by the ability of area streams to absorb treated sewage

(OMMA, n.d.). Assimilative capacity

is

closely associated with levels of streamflow through the principle of dilution since higher flows increase the ability of a watercourse to assimilate waste. Using data generated by the Canadian Climate Centre's General Circulation Model (CCCGCM), Smith and McBean (1993) demonstrated

that climate change could significantly reduce average annual streamflow by up to 39% in the Grand River at Cambridge-Galt. Less water would therefore be available to assimilate treated effluent. The quantity and quality of drinking water supplies also constrain growth. The Regional Municipality of Waterloo with a

1998 population of 418,500 (ROW, 1999)

world-class recreational fishing river. An ever growing number of visitors

examined alternative sources of water, such as a pipeline from the Great Lakes

enjoy a diversity of water sports such as canoeing, boating and swimming in various reaches of the river system.

and increased abstractions from the Grand

One objective of the research documented in this paper was to provide basin managers with a sense of the way in which climate change and resulting impacts may affect the achievement of goals outlined in The Vision. The Grand Strategy process greatly assisted the authors in meeting this challenge as it provided the means to engage stakeholders in the design and completion of the study. The process also facilitated the communication of findings. A discussion paper was prepared and

groundwater contamination (Associated Engineering, 1994). A scheme to recharge

310

River, to augment present groundwater supplies in support of anticipated growth or as a contingency in the event of large-scale

municipal aquifers with treated Grand River

sudace water (called the Mannheim project) has already been partly implemented to service sections of the Region. Water withdrawn and treated from the Grand River now accounts for approximately 20%

of the Region's supply (Boyd, 1999). The river is the sole source of municipal supplies for the city of Brantford and two First Nations communities. These interests are Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques

Yol.24. No.4.1999

already concerned about drinking water quality as all of their municipal supplies are abstracted downstream of signif icant sources of agricultural runoff and the treated sewage effluent discharges of several communities including the cities of Waterloo,


Kitchener, Guelph and Cambridge. Initial research suggests that climate change may reduce water quality further (Fitzgibbon et a/., 1993), especially during periods of low streamflow in the summer when the demand for water is expected to increase by the greatest amount under climate change (Cohen, 1987). Groundwater supplies may also drop because of climate change (Mclaren and Sudicky, 1993). lt is possible that the Grand River and its tributaries may not be able to support the increased demand for water in the future as both the quantity and quality of Grand River surface water may deteriorate. The Grand River, its tributaries and reservoirs are used extensively for recreation and support a wide variety of natural

habitat. The Grand was designated as a National Heritage River in 1994 and is a focus for cultural and recreational events.

Particioation in recreational activities is partly dependent on desirable conditions

if minimum acceptable streamflow and water quality criteria are not met. Natural habitat along the Grand and its tributaries also reouires minimum and will drop

flows and the existence of certain flow sequences or fluctuations in order to thrive and regenerate. Climate change may produce stream conditions that are intolerable to certain species whose demise could significantly alter the river's ecosystem.

Feedback received trom The Grand Strategy committee members and GRCA staff supported focusing research on the implications of climate change for wastewater assimilation and water supplies.

applied to simulate present and future water supply and demand situations in the watershed. Figure 2 provides a conceptual overview of the model, which deals exclusively with water quantity aspects and has

three principal components: water

use,

water supply and water balance. Water use forecasting is the primary focus of the model. Water uses include withdrawal (or

consumptive) and non-withdrawal (or instream) uses. Sudace water supplies are simulated based on time-series of natural streamflows that are provided to the model. Only ad hoc procedures are used for groundwater supplies. A reservoir modeling subcomponent simulates regulation effects on streamflows. The final component of the model is an algorithm that compares projected water use with available supplies. WUAM depicts a river basin as a dendritic network of nodes (representing tributaries and subbasins) and arcs (representing the flow paths between nodes). Water use projections and water balance calculations are carried out at each node. WUAM can be used to simulate all of the sources and withdrawals of water within a basin. The model can be used to monitor these variables under different modifications to the system (changes in climate, population or water use practices) and provide infor-

mation on water shortages that may have developed. The monthly timestep chosen for analysis reflected the authors'interest in examining drought-related concerns and the inherent limitations in applying climate change scenarios at finer temporal or spatial resolutions. The important issue of flooding was acknowledged but not studied in detail. Different analytical tools and scenarios would be required to properly evaluate potential flooding problems associated with a changed climate.

WUAM Configuration

The Water Use Analysis Model (WUAM) Application In order to assess possible impacts,

Figure 3 shows how the model was configured for the Grand River basin application. The selected nodes include all major reserthe

Water Use Analysis Model (WUAM) was Canadian Water Resources Journal

Yol.24, No.4.1999

voir sites, significant urban areas, key low flow taroet sites above and below waste311

WATERSUPPLY

WATER USE Withdrawal


. . . . .

urban-municipal rural-domestic industrial agricultural thermal energy

Non-withdrawal (or In-stream)

. . .

water quality recreation

hydroelectric

Comparison of Water Supply and Demand

Modified from Kassem, 1992

Figure 2: Conceptual Overview of the Water Use Analysis Model (WUAM) water treatment plants, and those gauges

with suitably long records of naturalized flows. Insufficient streamflow data orevented analysis downstream of Brantford. Water use projections and water balance calculations were carried out at the node level using a monthly time interval. The pro-

jection calculations required data that established current and future water supply, system operation and water use conditions for each node.

Baseline Conditions and Future Scenarios Baseline (1991) and future (2021) scenario data sets describing surface water supply, system operation and water use conditions were assembled for each node. lt is highly unlikely that the socio-economic environment underlying current system operation and

.7tz

water use conditions will prevail when the full effects of climate change are realized. The

assumption of an unchanged future is a source of major criticism for many of the climate impact studies completed in the past (Koshida et al., 1993; Smit, 1993; Cohen, 1993). The objective of building scenarios into this project was to relax this assumption using WUAM. Nevertheless, it is recognized that such scenarios contain implicit assumptions about demographic shifts, economic conditions, and levels of water consumption. Assigning this information to watershed nodes from traditional data collection units also introduces additional error. Surface water supply. ldeally, climatic data for the base case and future climate scenarios would have been used as input into a GRB runoff model to establish the natural streamflow sequences necessary Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques Yol.24. No.4. 1999

for this study. However, efforts to take historical climate data and determine recorded Grand River flows directly at selected

Historic monthly recorded streamflow data were obtained for each node for the period 1951-88 from the Water Survey of

sites have had limited success (Creese and McBean, 1996). A suitable hydrologic sim-

Canada (Environment Canada, 1994).

ulation model was under development by the GRCA during the study but was not yet operational for continuous long-term simulation of flows usino climatic inout.

estimates

Since natural flow data were not available, of unregulated data were obtained from the GRCA based upon work completed by Paragon Engineering Limited (1994). Missing values at selected nodes

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Figure 3: Water Use Analysis Model Gonfiguration Canadian Water Resources Journal

Yol.24. No.4.1999

313

were derived using linear regression relationships with adjacent streamflow gauges having unregulated data. The resulting data provided a time series of 456 unregulated base case scenario monthly flows for each node for the period 'l 951-88. These unregulated streamflow data were then re-regulated by WUAM using the reservoir operations and water use conditions specified by the authors. The base case time series was subsequently adjusted to produce seven future

flow scenarios representing a range of

analogous to the future climate of the Great Lakes region (Croley et a/., 1995). The longterm impacts on runoff for each of these scenarios relative to the base case for the Great Lakes and Grand River basins are shown in Table 1. The final streamflow

scenarios were produced

by

applying

monthly change ratios to the historical base case data for the Grand River basin using the following simple method: *

= QwunH.l Base case (QGLenL scenario / QorEnr aase case) (1)

QwuAtt4 scenario

monthly water supply conditions plausible under climate change. These were treated in the analysis as vvhal lf scenarios. Basin-

The month-by-month adjustment

wide runoff for the base case olus five

established for the entire basin were then

changed-climate scenarios were produced

assumed and equation (1) applied to determine changed-climate scenario streamflows at the outlet nodes of each subbasin.

by forcing various climate data sets through


present temperature conditions may be

the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) large basin run-off model (Croley, 1991) in order to determine hydrologic conditions specific to the Grand River basin and the other 120 Great Lakes watersheds. One of these scenarios (Croley, 1994) was based on the doubled CO, equilibrium (not year 2O21) climate conditions produced by the Canadian Climate Centre General Circulation Model ll (Boer et al., 1992) and interpolated for

ratios

Probabilities of occurrence cannot be assigned to the CCCGCM-based or transoosition-based streamflow scenarios used.

Furthermore, the CCCGCM-based scenario refers to an equilibrium state associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO, concentration. The transition between current conditions, this equilibrium state and even greater CO, concentrations was not

U.S.

considered in the analysis. Transient oceanatmosphere coupled GCM and regional climate scenarios with finer spatial and temporal resolution are under development by Environment Canada and its university

Midwest and Mid-Atlantic reoions. where

partners (Boer e/ a/., 1998; Caya et al.,

the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence

r'egion

(Louie, 1993). The remaining four scenarios were generated by using historic cli-

mate data transoosed f rom the

Table 1: Long-Term lmpacts of GLERL Hydrologic Scenarios (By Region) Percentage Change in Basin Runof{ with Respect to Base Case Conditions

ccc GcM Great Lakesr Grand River2

-32% -517"

rl

MCCl

MCC2

(warm/dry)

(warm/wet)

-21"k

-25"/"

-3%

MCC3

MCC4 (very warm/dry) (very warm/wet)

-197"

+13"/"

+21" ,aAo/

Sources: 1 . CCC GCM ll: Tables 9 and 10, Croley (1994) and MCC1 -4: Table 1 and 3, Croley et a/. (1995) 2. Determined from GLERL runoff data

314

Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques

Vol.24. No.4,1999

Seasonel Dietribution sf Flowg at Bnanilord

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Figure 4: Monthly Distribution of Base Case and Scenario Flows at Brantford 1995). Such models will eventually begin incorporating the influence of the Great Lakes, features that are important to the basin's climatology but unresolved by the GCM used in this analysis. The final two scenarios were created to

evaluate system sensitivity by simply reducing the monthly base case flows by 50% and 207". The relative changes among all the scenarios and the base case annual average flows at Brantford are listed in Table 2. Standard deviations and the range of change for all subbasins are also noted in the table. The monthly distribution Canadian Water Resources Journal Vol. 24, No. 4, 1999

of flows at Brantford is seen in Figure 4. With the exception of the linear reduction scenarios, all of the scenarios produced a shift in flow distribution towards an earlier and somewhat dampened spring freshet when compared to the base case. The transposition-based scenarios are more variable than the others examined. G roundwater supply. Groundwater was not explicitly considered in the develop-

ment of future water supply scenarios. In addition to being a major source of potable water in the Grand River basin, groundwater is an essential component of the hydro315

Table 2: Standard Deviations and Relative Changes Between Each Scenario and the Base Case Annual Average Flows at Brantford (Representing Basin-Wide

Conditions) Changed Climate Scenario

Percent Change Relative to Base Case (1 951 -88 unregulated flows)

Basin-wide

Standard Deviation (m3/s)

Basin-wide Base Case

ccc GcM il.

O"/o

-51%

-56% lo

OYo

14.4

-47o/o

9.1

MCCl **

'2"/o

+3o/o

21.5

MCC2*"

-19%

-28% to -14o/"

14.8

MCC3**

+13"/o

-1% lo +21o/"

25.7

MCC4**

+14o/"

+2/" to

-11o/"

lo

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19.3

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-207"

-20"/"

11 .4

50% linear reduction

-50%

-50%

7.2

2Oo/o


Range for all subbasins

-CCC GCM ll-Canadian Climate Centre Second Generation General Circulation Model (Croley, 1994) ..MCC-Midwestern Climate Centertransposition scenarios 1-4 (Croley ef a/., 1995)

logic cycle that provides base flow, the primary fraction of surface water flow during dry weather conditions. While preliminary research suggests that climate change may significantly affect future groundwater supplies in the Grand River basin (McLaren and Sudicky, 1993), defining and modeling

basin, these reservoirs have been success-

fully managed to reduce potential flood damage and to augment seasonally low

climate

flow conditions for water quality purposes (GRIC, 1982; Skibicki and Nelson, 1990). The impact of the Shand and Conestogo dams is readily apparent in the monthly streamflow series for Galt shown in Figure

change was beyond the scope of this study.

5. The variability of streamflows is lessened

Another Environment Canada initiative

as the reservoir operation reduces spring peak flows and raises summertime mini-

groundwater impacts

due to

(Brown, 1998) has been developed to pursue research on regional groundwater resources, relationships with climatic variability, and base flow in collaboration with the GRCA. System operation. There are over 34 sizable control structures (dams or weirs) in the Grand River system (GRCA, 1996b) but only three are sufficiently large to signifi-

cantly impact streamflows and warrant incorporation into WUAM. The Shand, Conestogo, and Guelph dams became operational in 1942, 1952 and 1976, respectively, forming Belwood, Conestogo and Guelph lakes. Located upstream of major population centres in the central 316

mum flows. Stage-storage relationships and

current operating rule curves for the three reservoirs were recreated in a form suitable for WUAM. Monthly maximum and minimum release values were set equal to the daily or instantaneous values used by the GRCA in operating the reservoirs. Actual release data during the 1983-92 period were used to establish monthly target release values.

Minimum and maximum reservoir levels were also specified for each impoundment.

Future system operations depend on management decisions adopted by the GRCA in response to changing climate conditions and future needs of the populaRevue canadienne des ressources hydriques Vol. 24, No. 4, 1999


tion. These options could include adjusting reservoir operating rule curves and developing new reservoir sites. The GRCA has the option of adjusting its operating procedures for existing reservoirs to accommodate seasonal shifts in water supply that may accompany climate change. Future adjusted rule curves were created to improve water management under all of the climate change streamf low scenarios except those generated by linear reduction of base case flows. Additionally, the GRCA could develop another reservoir site. The agency acquired land in the 1970s for the potential development of a fourth major control structure, the West Montrose Dam. A draft set of plans and operating procedures were generated in the 1970s following serious flooding events in the central

and lower watersheds. Support for such a reservoir is presently weak for a variety of social, environmental and economic reasons, but under extreme climate change conditions, the pressure for development may increase. Thus the West Montrose reservoir was included as a future system operations scenario in WUAM to assess its capability to deal with altered supply conditions. The inclusion of the West Montrose

Recorded

M

reservoir here does not imply that it should be constructed, Water use. WUAM was set up to simu-

late base (1991) and future (2021) with-

drawal water use for urban (domestic, industrial, commercial, and institutional) rural (domestic) and agricultural (irrigation and livestock watering) categories at each

node. With the exception of irrigation, these figures were based on current and

future estimates of activity level (e.9., human and livestock populations) and coefficients of water use per unit of activity. Population estimates were derived from Statistics Canada (1993), the Ontario Ministry of Finance (1994), and a report prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Agri-Food and Rural Affairs (Ecologistics Limited, 1993).Water use coefficients were determined using Environment Canada's Municipal Use Database

(MUD) (Environment Canada, 1991), water use data acquired from municipalities and the Ecologistics Limited (1993) report. A Geographic Information System (GlS) facilitated converting data from politi-

cal or administrative units of collection (county, local municipality, census area) to

watershed units represented by nodes.

onthly Flows at Galt

300 250

200 a oE

=

LL

150 '100

50 g

Year

Figure 5: The Influence of Regulation in the Monthly Streamflow Series for Galt Canadian Water Resources

Yol.24. No.4.1999

Journal

317

Future domestic water use estimates incorporated water conservation measures that were documented in a report prepared by Associated Engineering Limited (1994) for the Region of Waterloo. A 25% use re-

duction in all new develooment and an 18.5% drop in water use among existing urban units were accounted for in the future water use coefficients entered into WUAM. Future scenarios were also constructed for increased site-soecific river abstractions proposed to occur in the ROW at Hidden Valley near Doon (16


MIGD or 0.8m3/s) and for the Arkell Springs withdrawals servicing the City of Guelph (4 MIGD or 0.2m3ls) (Paragon Engineering Limited, 1994). lrrigation estimates were derived from values oresented in the Grand River lmplementation Committee report (GRlC, 1982) with guidance from GRCA staff. Non-withdrawal or in-stream water demands were modeled by adopting target flow values presently used by the GRCA to maintain acceptable water quality. Streamflows are regulated to maintain minimum flows above specific thresholds at key locations below sewage treatment facilities

in the central watershed as identified in Table 3. The baseline target flows identified in Table 3 were not adiusted for future scenanos.

The final set of water supply, system operation, and water use scenarios used to run WUAM and assess the oossible effects of climate change are identified in Table 4. Three model evaluation (MES) and twentyone impact-assessment scenarios (lAS) were tested. MES 1 reoresents base condi-

tions, assuming 1991 water use and the current reservoir configuration and operations. MES 2 and MES 3 were run for comparison purposes under the same water use conditions as the MES1, although MES 2 assumed state-of-nature system operations (i.e., reservoir outflows equal inflows) while the West Montrose reservoir was added to the current reservoir configuration for MES 3. The 21 imoact assessment sce-

narios were divided into three groups based on assumed system operation conditions as noted in Table 4:

Group 1

-

Group 2

-

Group 3

-

Future climate and water use, current reservoir configuration and current reservoir ooerations (lAS 1-8) Future climate and water use,

current reservoir configuration and modified reservoir operations (lAS 9-13) Future climate and water use, additional reservoir and modi-

fied reservoir operations

(as

required) (lAS 14-21).

Modeled Scenario Results Target flow satisfaction and the distribution of modeled streamflow about the targets were selected as the basis for interpreting

scenario impacts on streamflows. MES

1,

reflecting 1991 basin conditions, represents the Basis-of-Comparison (BOC) scenario for evaluation purposes. The huge

quantities of streamflow data produced by WUAM (456 months x 15 nodes x 24 scenarios) precluded an exhaustive compari-

Table 3: Existing StreamflowTargets (m3/s) (see Figure 3 for locations) Location

Jan-Apr

Speed River at Hanlon (below Guelph) Grand River at Doon (in Kitchener) Grand River at Brantford

May-Ocl

Nov-Dec

1.7

2.8

9.9

7.1

17.O

Source: Grand River Conservation Authority

318

Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques

Vol.24. No.4. 1999

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son of modeled flows for all lAS. Target flow satisfaction, while based upon the modeled streamflow results, involved much less data analysis and yielded valuable information on potential water supply-demand conflicts, Target flow satisfaction is directly tied to

ability of WUAM to simulate streamflows assuming current system operation and

water quality. Statistics were collected on the number of monthly breaches of the minimum target flows for the baseline and each scenario tested at the three target

resoonse to observed flows. Due to the monthly timestep used in WUAM simula-

flow locations noted in Table 3. Information was also collected on the severitv of the target flow breaches.

Model Evaluation Scenarios


(MES 1-3) An essential step in applying any model to estimate or oredict future outcomes is to determine the ability of the model to replicate oast conditions. Model uncertainties and limitations, including those associated with the current and changed-climate surface water supply data used, must be carried forward into any discussion of estimated imoacts. MES 1 was used to assess the

B

water use conditions. lt was recognized early in the study that WUAM could not duplicate the continuous daily operating adjustments made by the GRCA in

tions, the model often held back

or

released more water than under GRCA ooeration. Nevertheless, WUAM satisfactorily simulated monthly reservoir operations

as illustrated for the Belwood reservoir

in

Figure 6. The model also adequately reproduced monthly streamflows. A comparison of simulated and observed monthly flows for Brantford is seen in Figure 7. In terms of target flow satisfaction, the GRCA maintains sufficient flow in all but the most severe droughts, approximately 96% of the time at Doon (GRCA, 1997). By comparison, the modeled target flow satisfaction at

Doon for MES 1 was 94% indicating reasonable agreement (Figure 8). From this ooint forward, MES 1 is referred as the

elwood Reservoir Levels

4n e

415

E -5 410

405

4m 1

984

Sinulated odES

1)

Figure 6: Simulated and Observed Belwood Reservoir Operations

320

Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques Yol.24, No.4, 1999

Streamflow Comparison at Brantford

o

g,

250.0

00

200.0

00

150.000

E I tr 100.000

50.000


0.000

Figure 7: Comparison of Simulated and Observed Monthly Flows for Brantford

100

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=/ /

t Wst

firrrtr rc Rc crvoh

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560

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= 640 g tU

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Ol (l&, unrcr ildcd lwr) r-

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Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 'MES 1-MES2-MES3

Dec

Figure 8: Target Flow Satisfaction at Doon Under MES 1-3 Conditions Canadian Water Resources Journal Vol. 24, No. 4, 1999

321

of Comparison (BOC) and the impacts of various scenarios will be evaluated in terms of their divergence from BOC Basis

results.

Since the Grand River system

is


already heavily regulated to curb flooding and augment seasonally low flows, a stateof-nature scenario was also evaluated (MES 2). WUAM was adjusted to remove the effect of reservoir operations by setting reservoir inflows equal to outflows. This provided a benchmark for assessing the overall function and effectiveness of existing regulation. Under the state-of-nature scenario, target flows were met less than 50% of the time during the June-October period (Figure 8). Clearly, regulation has an important function in the Grand River system. The final evaluation run (MES 3) was used to test the operation of the West Montrose reservoir without the influence of other changes in supply or demand factors. As expected, the addition of more storage capacity further improved the degree of target flow satisfaction to 98% at Doon.

lmpact Assessment Scenarios (lAS 1-B): Future climate and water use, current reservoir configuration and current reservoir operations Only the IAS statistics for the target flow satisfaction indicator recorded at the Doon

site are used in the detailed IAS discussion. Comparisons among the various scenarios can be made since target flow values were held constant for each model run. A complete description of results for the Hanlon and Brantford target flow locations was provided in Southam et al. (1997). Results tended to be slightly worse at Hanlon and somewhat better at Brantford when compared to the situation at Doon. The first set of impact assessment sce-

narios, IAS 1-8 (Table 3), combines

changed climatic conditions with f uture estimates of water use without adiusting current system operations. These are the worst-case scenarios tested in the study. Target flow satisfaction results are seen in Figure 9. Noteworthy is the effect of 322

increased water use and water abstractions on the baseline (BOC vs. IAS 1). Prior to the study it was hypothesized that future increases in water abstractions and water use would have severe ramifications for flows. Increased future water use reduces target flow satisfaction when compared to

the baseline during the April-November period, however the maximum monthly reduction, which occurs in September, reaches only 1O%. Changed climate scenarios and resulting impacts to streamflow appear to be much more important than expected changes in withdrawal forms of water use. Two reasons for this observation are plausible. First, much of the population upstream of Brantford receives its supply from groundwater sources and not directly from the Grand River or its tributaries. Secondly, the groundwater that is used but unconsumed (wastewater) augments river supplies when it is treated and

released from sewage treatment plants and lagoons. This contribution represents up to 4 m3/s or roughly one-fifth of the July-September long-term average flow below the Brantford STP.

The greatest impacts occurred under

the CCCGCM-based scenario (lAS 2) where streamflow targets at Doon were satisfied less than 25% of the time during

the May-October period and O% of the time during July and August. Minimum monthly flows occasionally reached 0m3/s

during July, August and

SePtember.

Although these figures seem unrealistic, comparable streamflows occurred in the Grand system prior to the construction of major reservoirs. Monthly flows of 1.33 m3/s during July, 1936 and 1 .56 m3/s dur-

ing August, 1936 were recorded at

Cambridge-Galt. The climate transposition-based scenarios (lAS 3-6) were better, though target flows were satisfied only 25-65% of the time during the critical June-September period. These scenarios produced similar impacts on target flow

satisfaction even though the average annual flows ranged from 19% below to 14% above the baseline (BOC). This

Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques Vol. 24, No. 4, 1999

T'

100

aF

hr

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a

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--

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\ \

Jan

Mar

BOC

-. =

I

/

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7

/ \

af

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Jul

/

Sep r

_1996 (AS 4)

-

-2096 (lAS 7)

tl I

I -1

0% (lAs 1)

-2%(lAS 3) +14% (lAS 6)

\

May r

\

t

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.=

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--1

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q60 =

-

_5196

Nov (tAS 2)

+13% (tAS 5)

rr-' -

-5096 (lAS 8)

Figure 9: Target Flow Satisfaction at Doon Under IAS 1-8 Conditions reflects the fact that much of the variability between transposition scenarios occurred during the winter and spring months when

previous section, one would expect the GRCA to ameliorate changes in streamf low conditions to the greatest possible

streamflows are well-above target flow

extent. One obvious measure would be to alter reservoir operations to provide greater flow augmentation during the sum-

thresholds (Figure 4). All scenarios, includ-

ing the linear reductions (lAS 7-B), produce much less desirable conditions than the baseline (BOC).

mer and early autumn. Reservoir rule curves were adjusted in WUAM to capture

and hold water earlier in the season to accommodate the shift in spring freshet

lmpact Assessment Scenarios (lAS 9-13): Future climate and water use, current reservoir configuration and modified reservoir operations

and extended dry season apparent in the streamflow scenarios. The resulting effects on target flow satisfaction at Doon are pre-

The impacts identified in the previous sec-

sented in Figure 10. The linear reduction

tion were developed assuming that

no

scenarios (lAS 7-8) did not exhibit the sea-

adaptive measures would be taken. Some spontaneous and planned adjustments would inevitably occur in many sectors to adapt management procedures to the new climatic environment (Smit, 1993). Given the severity of the impacts presented in the

sonal shift and thus were not evaluated

Canadian Water Resources Journal Vol. 24, No. 4, 1999

with modified reservoir operations. Conditions improved for all scenarios with the greatest influence in late spring through early summer. The largest increases in target flow satisfaction were observed

o

100

{

a

F

G'

80

IL

\

60

+, = o 40

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May Jul 0% (lAs 1)

r r r-r

Nov

-5196 (lAS 9)

- -1996 (tAS 1) +13% (lAS 12) - -20% (lAS 7) -5096 (lAS 8) Figure 10: Target Flow Satisfaction at Doon Under IAS 9-13 Conditions 1

among the transposition-based scenarios

on the Grand River below the

(lAS 10-13) with individual months improved by up to 30%. While 0% satisfaction conditions no longer occurred with the CCCGCMbased scenario (lAS 9), the targets were still met only 25% of the time or less during the July{ctober period.

Shand Dam and above the heavily populated central area. The results of this action on target flow satisfaction at Doon, coupled with modified rule curves for the existing reservoirs, are seen in Figure 1 1. The distinction between the CCCGCM-based (lAS 15) and transposition-based scenarios (lAS 16-19) sharpened after the introduction of the new reservoir. The transposition-based scenarios achieved target flows at least 60% of the time in all months and generally became much more similar to the baseline (BOC) results. IAS 19 was as good or even

lmpact Assessment Scenarios (lAS 14-21): Future climate and water use, additional reservoir and modified reservoir operations (as required) Even with modified rule curves, the small capacities of the reservoirs limited the volume of water that was available to augment flow through the summer and into early autumn. One response to this situation would be to increase reservoir capacity by constructing another impoundment. WUAM was used to simulate the effect of an additional reservoir located at West Montrose

324

existing

better than the baseline (BOC) from Jun*september. The 20"/" linear reduction scenario (lAS 20) was also similar to the baseline. However, minimal improvement was observed for the CCCGCM-based scenario with target flows satisfied less than

35% of the time during the May-October period. The 50% linear reduction scenario Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques Vol. 24, No. 4, 1999

100

h-

E .g

\

#80 a 3 f;60

4

+-#

'-1

# \

/

It

= 640 F

/

\

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l1

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0

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/

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s

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r

--a

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Jan Mar May Jul Sep -

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--

16) +14% (lAS 19) -r

-2% (lAS

Nov

_5196 (hS 15) 14) rr +13% (lAS 18) -1996 (lAS 17) .---50% (lAS 21") -20% (lAS 201

0% (lAS

Figure 11: Target Flow Satisfaction at Doon Under IAS 14-21 Conditions was only marginally better with target flows satisfied less than 35% of the time during the June-September period.

conditions tested (the CCCGCM-based

Discussion of Results

that did exist was composed largely of treat-

lmplications for Water Management Wastewater assimilation and water supply functions afforded by the Grand River and its tributaries will substantially deteriorate during the summer and early autumn if conditions similar to the climate change sce-

narios are realized, expected increases in water use and abstractions occur, and if no responses are taken to enhance flows. The quantity and quality of surface water may not meet the water-dependent objectives in

the Grand Strategy. Target flows designed to maintain minimum acceptable water quality will not be consistently met during the summer months. Under the worst case Canadian Water Resources Journal 24, No. 4, 1999

Vof .

scenario) there was virtually no flow in the Grand River upstream of Doon during parts of July, August and September. The flow

ed

wastewater. Expected future water abstractions of 0.8m3/s at Hidden Valley near Doon could become physically impos-

sible during these occasions and withdrawals of the maximum possible volume of 2.8m3/s that could be facilitated by existing infrastructure would be unreliable. Under any of the scenarios tested the Grand River could not be depended upon to fully replace groundwater sources on a continuous basis for the Region of Waterloo. Abstraction uses would compete directly with efforts to maintain flow for water quality purposes throughout the summer and early autumn. The GRCA and other water users would need to determine the priority of uses and manage any potential conflicts. 325

The GRCA and other basin water man-


agers are equipped to respond to these impacts by implementing actions to either reduce surface water demands or augment supplies. Some of these responses were modeled. Substantive water conservation actions were incorporated into the future water use scenarios. The volume of estimated future water withdrawals of surface water was shown to be small relative to possible climate-induced changes in streamflow. As a result, increased water use alone reduced target flow satisfaction by only 10% or less at Doon when compared to the baseline. Further water conservation measures would not be able to compensate for the reduced supplies accompanying the climate change scenarios. The GRCA has been effectively responding to climate variability and increasing water demands since the development of the Shand Dam and Belwood reservoir in 1942. lf the current set of reservoirs were not in place, conditions would resemble the worst climate change scenario with target flows being met less than 30% of the time during the July-September period. Adjustment of current reservoir operations and in-

stallation of additional capacity are two options potentially available to the GRCA to manage changing supply conditions. Both were modeled using WUAM. Adjusting reservoir rule curves to capture and

(CCCGCM-based and 50% reduction in baseline flows), summer flow targets were

satisfied only one-third of the time. The impaired river functions and potential conflicts among users would not be remedied by adding reservoir capacity or adjusting rule curves under these drastic conditions.

Study Limitations and Assumptions 'What if' studies are often fraught with uncertainty and assumptions and this study was not an exception. The limitations are acknowledged and the implications for water resource impacts and management responses are explained. The study focused strictly on droughtrelated changes to surface water resources and the implications for wastewater assimilation (water quality) and withdrawal water uses. Potential flooding associated with climate change and explicit modeling of other water uses (e.g. recreation) are important considerations for a broader examination of water management and potential conflicts in the basin. Typically, recreation uses are viewed as being secondary to the provision of water to municipalities or to the assimilating function the river provides for sewage

treatment plant operations (GRIC, 1982). However, as efforts to capitalize on recreation resources increase, through the designation of the Grand River as a Canadian

hold water earlier in the spring was shown

Heritage River, the value of recreation uses

to improve target flow satisfaction at Doon

will undoubtedly increase in some areas.

by up to 30% in a given month. This effect occurred most often in the spring and early summer, and target flows were often unsatisfied in late summer and early autumn. Adjusted operations coupled with the addition of a West Montrose reservoir substantially improved downstream conditions for five of the seven scenarios tested. Target flows were satisfied a minimum of 60% of the months analyzed. An additional reservoir plus adjusted operations would likely restore much of the wastewater assimilation and water supply function previously shown to be impaired by climate change condi-

When the demand for water approaches or exceeds available supplies, a definite characteristic of the climate change scenarios tested in this study, conflicts may arise with other interests. The analysis described in this paper was confined to effects on surface waters only. The potential impacts of climate vari-

tions. For the two severe scenarios 326

ability and increasing water abstraction on

groundwater resources was beyond the scope of this study and was not considered. This important area of research is the

focus of

a study by Brown

(1998) and

through research by the GRCA. lmpacts identified in this paper were furRevue canadienne des ressources hydriques Vol. 24, No. 4, 1999

ther restricted to the central basin based on target flow results for Doon. lmpacts at Doon or other target flow sites will not necessarily be felt throughout the Grand system. The GRCA has minimal capability to augment flows upstream of the major reservoirs and impacts there may be more severe. Much of the impact discussion focused on the satisfaction of minimum target flows that represent acceptable water quality conditions. These were left unchanged in the assessment of future impacts but could be lowered if improvements are implemented to further control agricultural runoff, or if better effluent treatment technologies lead to further water

at point sources (sewage treatment plants). Lower targets might also be justified for short periods if real-time measurements of water quality parameters remained at acceptable levels. During the dry autumn of 1998, the GRCA was able to release less than target flows since water temperatures were sufficiently


quality enhancements

low to increase dissolved oxygen concentra-

tions (GRCA, 1998). In the WUAM climate

of being wrong may be an overwhelming obstacle to implementation. By filling reservoirs earlier in the season the GRCA eliminates its principal tool to cope with flooding. Construction of a reservoir may be wrong for other reasons; cost, displacement of resi-

dents or the prospect of environmental degradation. Certainly other response options exist that were not modeled in this study. lt would be useful to compare the effectiveness of a new reservoir with that of a large-scale forest regeneration project for the basin. lt may be possible to develop a

number of low-risk responses including additional water conservation measures that cumulatively would equal or exceed the effect on streamflows of a new reservoir.

Recommendations The scenarios tested in this study illustrate

the serious impacts that climate change may have on the capability of the Grand River to assimilate wastewater and yield a reliable supply of water for municipal pur-

change analysis, lowered target flows would

poses while maintaining existing water

translate into less severe imoacts for the

quality standards. The authors strongly recommend that the GRCA continue to recognize the importance of climate variability and change issues within the Grand Strategy process. Although specific adaptive measures based on the findings of the study are difficult to justify, there is sufficient evidence to warrant further and more

uses examined. Limitations are also apparent in the consideration of responses to climate change. The effects of rule curve modifications or new reservoirs are not felt equally down-

stream of the reservoir and not at all

in

areas upstream or on tributaries. Rule curve modifications were tailored to deal with the entire set of climate change scenarios. lmprovements to flow conditions might have been greater if the rule curves were designed specifically for each supply scenario. The study did not deal explicitly with the decision-making context and risk associated with actually implementing these decisions. The study was used to measure the effectiveness of each resoonse at ameliorating flows and not to examine the barriers associated with implementing the response. How would the GRCA know when to begin holding back water earlier in the season or begin the process of receiving approval for construction of another reservoir? The risk Canadian Water Resources Journal

Yol.24. No.4. 1999

sophisticated assessments

of

climate

change. This activity should be coordinated

by the GRCA with assistance from

its

Grand Strategy partners, including munici-

palities, Environment Canada, and the Ontario Ministries of Natural Resources and Environment. A first steo would be to support efforts by the GRCA to develop the capacity to assess climate scenarios within their existing hydrologic modeling framework. Other related steos include:

. developing transient regional climate scenarios with finer spatial and temporal resolution for incorporation into the watershed hydrologic model; 327

. developing

a

regional groundwater

model capable of being integrated with the surface water model; . examining the effects of extreme events (drought and flood); . quantifying the extent and effects of current and projected water uses and wastewater discharges; . developing quantity and quality criteria for the assessment of specific impacts to all important water uses including recreation and fisheries; and . developing the criteria to assess adap-

tive strategies (e.9. reservoir, further water conservation, Great Lakes pipeline) beyond simple feasibility to include social, environmental and economrc concerns.

lished Environment Canada report. Carter, T.R., M.L. Parry, S. Nishioka and H.

Harasawa. 1994. IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change lm-

pacts and AdaPtations.

London:

Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, and Center for Global Environmental Studies. Caya, D., R. Laprise, M. Giguere, G. Bergeron, J.P. Blanchet, B.J. Stocks, G.J. Boer and N.A. McFarlane. 1995. "Description of the Canadian Regional Climate Model." Water, Air and Soil Pollution, S2:477-482. Creese, E.E. and E.A. McBean. 1996. The

Many of these suggested activities are Downloaded by [37.187.58.250] at 22:30 21 March 2014

of Climate Change/Variability on Grand River Basin Groundwater SuppliesProgress Report January 7998. Unpub-

already in progress or are being planned.

The Grand Strategy process offers a unique opportunity to capitalize on these efforts and provide basin water managers with the tools they will require to respond to climate change into the next millennium.

Effects of Climate Change on Monthly River Flows in the Grand River Basin. Re-

port to the University Lakes Research Fund. The Water Network, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON.

Cohen, S.J. 1993. Mackenzie Basin lm-

pact Study, lnterim Report #1. Canadian Climate Centre, Downsview, ON.

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