Research working paper 11 Flexible ageing: new ways to measure the diverse experience of population aging in Scotland, using the Scottish Longitudinal Study Jeroen Spijker* John MacInnes** (Previously submitted as End of Award Report ES/K004611/1) Published online 1 September 2015
*Centre for Demographic Studies Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain **School of Social and Political Science University of Edinburgh
Longitudinal Studies Centre Scotland National Records of Scotland Ladywell House Ladywell Rd Edinburgh EH12 7TF
email:
[email protected]
email:
[email protected]
2
Table of content 1. Summary
9
2. Introduction (A State of the Art and objectives)
10
2.1. Trends in fertility, mortality, migration and population ageing in Scotland since 1900
11
2.2. A brief international comparison in fertility, mortality, migration and population ageing trends.
19
2.3. An overview of (changing) concepts of population ageing
21
2.3.1.
Biological ageing vs. population ageing
22
2.3.2.
Limits of life
23
2.3.3.
Third vs. Fourth Age
23
2.3.4.
Ageism and the negative public image of old age
24
2.4. Previous research on health and ageing in the UK and a simple model of socioeconomic and other determinants of adult health.
25
2.5. Objectives
26
2.6. Social relevance
27
3. Data sources
28
3.1. The Scottish Longitudinal Study
28
3.1.1.
Advantages and disadvantages
29
3.1.2.
Data access and an overview of the requested variables
29
4. Measuring population ageing
37
4.1. Type 1: Standard population ageing and dependency indicators
37
4.2. Type 2: Health-based population ageing indicators
38
4.3. Type 3: Population ageing indicators with an adjusted working-age population
39
4.4. Type 4: Population ageing indicators decomposed by personal, household and neighbourhood characteristics
41
5. Results I: Population ageing in Scotland and the Scottish NHS Board Areas since 1981
42
5.1. Standard population ageing indicators. 1981-2011.
42
5.2. Health-based population ageing indicators. 1982-2009.
60
3
5.3. Population ageing indicators with an adjusted working-age population. 19922009.
6. Results II: Population ageing according to 1991 and 2001 census characteristics
64
73
6.1. Standard population ageing indicators
73
6.2. Health-based population ageing indicators.
77
6.3. Population ageing indicators with an adjusted working-age population.
81
7. Conclusions
86
7.1. Responding to the initial research objectives
86
7.2. Policy relevance
87
7.3. Future research
89
8. References
90
9. Annex
96
Annex 9.1 SLS Data preparation
96
1. Mortality data
96
2. Population at risk
96
3. Creation of variables and categories of interest
97
Annex 9.2 How to calculate Prospective Age
101
Annex 9.3 Map of Scotland and its NHS Board Areas and NUTS 2 regions 102 Annex 9.4 Annex Tables and Graphs Annex 9.5 144
103
Project-related impact and academic and other output
Annex 9.6 Useful sites
146
List of Figures Figure 1
Total population, natural increase and net migration, 1901-2011.
13
Figure 2
Proportion aged 0-14, 15-64, 65+ and 80+ years. Scotland, 1871-2011.
13
Figure 3
Number of surviving persons (aged 60+). Scotland 1981-2001.
17
Figure 4
Number of surviving persons according to birth cohorts 1876-2011. Scotland 1981-2001.
18
Mean age in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
44
Figure 5
4
Figure 6
Median age in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
44
Figure 7
Proportion aged 65+ in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
46
Figure 8
Population aged 65+ in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
46
Figure 9
Proportion aged 85+ in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
47
Figure 10 Population aged 85+ in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
47
Figure 11 Sex ratio at ages 0, 65 and 85 in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 19812011.
51
Figure 12 Ageing Index in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
54
Figure 13 Oldest-old to elderly ratio in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
54
Figure 14 Dependency ratios in Scotland and the NHS Board Areas, 1981-2011.
57
Figure 15 OODR 1981-2011
59
Figure 16 Prospective Median Age (1982-2009) for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas. Standard year = 1982.
62
Figure 17 Population Average Remaining Years of Life Expectancies (PARYL) for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1982-2009.
62
Figure 18 The proportion of the population in age groups with a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less (Prop RLE15-) for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1982-2009.
63
Figure 19 Prospective Old Age Dependency Ratio for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1982-2009
63
Figure 20 Number of persons in paid employment per 100 of working-age (16-64) in Scottish NHS Board Areas. 1992-2009.
64
Figure 21 Pensioner/Worker Ratio * 100 for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 19922009
66
Figure 22 Real Elderly Dependency Ratio * 100 for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1992-2009.
69
Figure 23 Real Oldest-Old Dependency Ratio * 100 for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1992-2009.
70
Figure 24 Type I Real Dependent Population Ratio * 100 for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1992-2009.
71
Figure 25 Type II Real Dependent Population Ratio * 100 for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1992-2009.
72
Figure 26 Mean age, Median age, and Prospective MA according to 1991 and 2001 census characteristics.
78
5
Figure 27 Proportion of the population with a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less according to 1991 and 2001 census characteristics.
80
Figure 28 OADR, POADR and REDR according to 1991 and 2001 census characteristics.
83
Figure 29 ROODR according to the 1991 and 2001 census characteristics. A selection of results.
85
List of Tables Table 1
TFR in Scotland, the UK and world regions
19
Table 2
Life expectancy at age 0 and 65 in Scotland, the UK and world regions
20
Table 3
Percentage aged 65+ and old age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64) in Scotland, the UK and world regions
20
Table 4
Variables and categories of interest based on requested SLS variables
34
Table 5
Descriptive statistics of the 1991 and 2001 SLS samples: For each variable category the number of cases and the proportion of persons who are aged 65+.
35
List of Maps Maps 1-2 Mean and Median Age in 1981.
45
Maps 3-4 Mean and Median Age in 2011.
45
Maps 5-6 Population aged 65+as proportion of the total population and in absolute numbers. 1981 and 2011.
48
Maps 7-8 Population aged 85+as proportion of the total population and in absolute numbers. 1981 and 2011.
49
Maps 9-10 Sex ratio at ages 65 and 85. 1981-3.
52
Maps 11-12
52
Sex ratio at ages 65 and 85. 2009-11.
Maps 13, 14 and 15. Child, Old-Age and Total Dependency Ratios, 2011.
58
Map 16
OODR 2011
59
Map 17
Change in Labour Force Participation between 1992 and 2009 in Scottish NHS Board Areas.
65
Real Elderly Dependency Ratio * 100 for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas, 1992 and 2009.
69
Real Oldest-Old Dependency * 100 for Scottish NHS Board Areas, 1992 and 2009.
70
Map 18 Map 19.
6
Map 20 Map 21
Type I Real Dependent Population Ratio * 100 for Scottish NHS Board Areas, 1992 and 2009
71
Type II Real Dependent Population Ratio * 100 for Scottish NHS Board Areas, 1992 and 2009.
72
List of Annex Tables and Figures Annex Table 1 Proportion aged 0-14, 15-64, 65+ and 80+ years. Scotland, 1871-2001
103
Annex Table 2 Descriptive statistics of the 1991 and 2001 SLS samples: For each variable the proportion of cases according to category
104
Annex Table 3 Descriptive statistics of the 1991 and 2001 SLS samples: For each variable category the mean and median age
106
Annex Table 4 Mean age in Scottish NHS regions. 1981-2011
108
Annex Table 5 Male and female life expectancy at age 65 in Scotland and its NHS regions, 1982-2009
109
Annex Table 6 Summary of results for a selection of population ageing indicators for Scotland and its NHS Board Areas. 1982, 1996 and 2009
110
Annex Table 7 Indicator 1iii: For each census characteristic the proportion of the population aged 65+
115
Annex Table 8 Indicator 1iv: For each census characteristic the proportion of the population aged 85+
116
Annex Table 9 Indicator 1v: Male-Female sex ratio at ages 65 and 85 by census characteristic
117
Annex Table 10 Indicator 1vii: Oldest-Old to Elderly Ratio (85+/65+*100) according to census variable category
118
Annex Table 11 Indicator 1ix: Old-Age Dependency Ratio (65+/15-64*100). Total and broken down by census variable category#
119
Annex Table 12 Indicator 1xi: Oldest-Old Dependency Ratio (85+/15-64). Total and broken down by census variable category#
120
Annex Table 13 Indicator 2i: Prospective Median Age (PMA) according to census characteristics (1991 Total population = standard)
121
Annex Table 14 For each census characteristic life expectancy at age 65 (LE age 65), age at which remaining life expectancy
