solar PV

Market Potential for Solar PV: long-term and progressive perspective on 2050 and beyond Christian Breyer, Lappeenranta University of Technology EPIA Sustainable Development WG: PV Systems Cost Reduction Brussels, June 25, 2014

We know the way to go

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Market Potential for Solar PV: 2050 and beyond Christian Breyer ► [email protected]

source: Brunila A., 2012. Fortum – Power and heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics

We know the Resource Basis Key insights: • no lack of energy resouces • limited conventional resources • solar and wind resources need to be the major pillars of a sustainable energy supply Remark: • conventional resources might be lower than depicted by Perez

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source:

Perez R. and Perez M., 2009. A fundamental look on energy reserves for the planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50

But do we know the long-term PV demand? The results of some recent studies might help …

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Focus on PV for the year 2050

conservative in heat and mobility sector

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• all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV (≥ 5 TW) • BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios Market Potential for Solar PV: 2050 and beyond • closer to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline Christian Breyer view ► [email protected]

Alternative approach to 2050 key assumptions based on IEA-WEO 2013 extrapolation to 2050 by CAGR 2011-2035 shift of 50% of non-power TPED to power PE efficiency gain of 20% share of solar PV in power supply of 40% (rest mainly wind, plus some hydro power) • assuming a breakthrough in battery capex, resulting in minor CSP capacity • • • • •

key results • 23 - 33 TWp PV capacity in 2050 • 7.5 doublings of capacity for learning curve • 320 €/kWp target PV capex in 2050 (have in mind: major capex reduction until 2030) • 17 €/MWh target LCOE for global ave yield • PV might become THE least cost energy source

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How does an innovative approach look like? source: Connolly D. and Mathiesen V., 2014. A technical and economic analysis of one potential pathway to a 100% renewable energy system, Int. J. Sustain Energy Planning and Mgm

Key characteristics: • 100% RE system for all sector • hourly resolved simulation • solar PV ‚forgotten‘ (the rest is innovative …) • well balanced RE-heat and RE-mobility • focus on energy flows and system costs • no grid, no import/ export, not fully optimised 9


100% RE in Ireland – Aalborg University, DK

Key insights: • several routes to E-fuels applied (see one example above) • sustainable CO2 route accessible • system efficiency of power-to-mobility acceptable • most relevant: intermittant resource basis is coupled to flexible and very high demand, resulting in very efficient power demand matching and reduced power storage need 10



Key insights: • 7 step approach feasible • significant increase in power demand (~ +350%) • BUT, no change in total primary energy demand (TPED) • highly efficient power-based RE system enables powerto-gas/liquid pathways 11



Key insights: • 2020 system cost only 30% higher than reference (neglecting: cost of climate change, cancer deaths, negative trade balance effects, lower level of employment in energy sector, less tax income) • 2050 system cost identical to reference • simplified standard economic consideration, neglecting the full view on total societal cost • otherwise, maybe 30% less in cost (personal estimate) Potential increase for Solar PV:in2050 and beyond (> 100 000 jobs) significant employment 12 • Market Christian Breyer ► [email protected]

Alternative long-term approach beyond 2050 key assumptions based on IEA-WEO 2013 long-term global average PED on EU level of today world population stabilized at 10 bn people share of solar PV between 25%-40%, depending on battery breakthrough and CSP competitiveness • gain in PV system efficiency to 30% (area impact) • shift of non-power TPED to power (heat pumps, EV, RO desalination, etc.: power-to-heat/gas/fuel/water) • no PE efficiency gain (gain in some sectors, but limiting efficiencies in power-to-fuel) • • • •

key results 65 - 105 TWp PV capacity in the long-term beyond 2050 up to 150 TWp in maximum in literature (incl. water, food) no limitation in area demand (or other resources) 9 - 10 doublings of capacity for learning curve 250 €/kWp target PV capex beyond 2050 (have in mind: major capex reduction until 2030) • 13 €/MWh target LCOE for global ave yield • PV might become THE least cost energy source • • • • •

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Summary    

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solar PV is a major part of the complex energy system PV and Wind emerge to the backbone of global energy supply 100% RE system is feasible: technical, economical, ecological the major energy scenarios deviate stongly in their results for longterm solar PV only WWF and Greenpeace acknowledge innovative power-based heat and mobility solutions maybe 2050 world: 23-33 TWp, 320 €/kWp capex, 17 €/MWh LCOE beyond 2050 world: 65-105 TWp, 250 €/kWp capex, 13 €/MWh LCOE major cost reductions until 2030 (doublings afterwards take long)

 PV might become THE least cost energy source 14


Thanks for your attention!