Southernness, migration, and homicide risk: An ... - Springer Link

SOUTHERNNESS, MIGRATION, AND HOMICIDE RISK: An Analysis of Individual-Level Datat STEVEN STACKtt Wayne State University ABSTRACT: The regional culture o f violence literature has neglected the effect migration out o f the South has on individual-level homicide risk. The present paper tests the hypothesis that moving away from the South reduces exposure to a relatively large class o f motivated offenders and lowers the risk o f homicide victimization to non-Southern levels. The data come from the National Mortality Detail File and include 2,647 homicides and 403,184 natural deaths. A multivariate logistic regression analysis shows that migration out o f the South does not normalize homicide risk. Thus, former Southerners continue to remain at a relatively high risk o f homicide victimization in spite o f relocating to a safer environment.

INTRODUCTION Research concerning the influence of Southernness on homicide tends to be based on large ecological units, such as cities, SMSAs, and states. There is no question that the South has a relatively high homicide rate. However, inconsistent findings mark the research which controis for the covariates of Southernness. For example, some multivariate investigations find a positive relationship between Southernness and homicide rates (e.g., Blau & Golden, 1986; Gastil, 1971; Huff-Corzine, Corzine, & Moore, 1986; Messner, 1982, 1983; Nelsen, Corzine, & Huff-Corzine, 1994; Rosenfeld, 1986). Other research reports no relationship at all (e.g., DeFronzo, 1983; Jackson, 1984; Loftin & Hill, 1974; Parker & Smith, 1979; Smith & Parker, 1980; Williams, 1984; Williams & Flewelling, 1988). Finally, some studies document mixed results (e.g., Bailey, 1984; Kposowa & Breault, 1993; Land, McCall, & Cohen 1990; Parker & Toth, 1990; Peterson & Krivco, 1993; Simpson, 1985). A n earlier version o f this paper was presented at the annual meeting o f the Academy o f Criminal Justice Sciences, Albuquerque, New Mexico, March 1998. Data were provided by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. t t Direct all correspondence to: Steven Stack, Wayne State University, Department o f Criminal Justice, 2305 F.A.B., Detroit, M I 48202. E-mail: [email protected]. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE, Vol. 26 No. 2, 2002 9 2002 Southern Criminal Justice Association

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This past structural work is marked by interpretational problems due to its ecological nature (Robinson, 1950; Van Poppel & Day, 1996). For example, while poverty rates are correlated with homicide rates and Southern location, one has no way of knowing to what extent the poor are the actual parties involved in the homicides under study. A second issue is that previous work has neglected the process of migration into and out of the South. In particular, the risk of homicide for migrants who have left the South is essentially unknown. From the standpoint of the routine activities/opportunity theory of criminal victimization (Cohen & Felson, 1979), one might anticipate that leaving the South should reduce exposure to a dangerous class of offenders and bring the risk of homicide in line with the rest of the nation. The present study complements past ecological work on this problem in two ways. First, reliance upon individual-level data allows a test of some micro-level explanations and conclusions generated by previous macro-oriented work about homicide risk. These considerations include notions concerning particular at-risk groups, such as lower-status individuals and migrants into the South. Such findings may serve to confirm the results of macro-level research. Second, the present paper presents the first systematic application of opportunity theory to Southernness, migration, and homicide risk. Third, a set of demographic control variables is included to test for the problem of spuriousness inherent in any zero-order relationship.

MACRO-LEVEL RESEARCH ON SOUTHERNNESS AND HOMICIDE Previous research on Southernness and homicide typically has used aggregated data (e.g., Corzine & Huff-Corzine, 1989; Gastil, 1971; Kowalski & Patee, 1991; Land et al., 1990; McCall, Land, & Cohen, 1992; Nelsen et al., 1994; Parker, 1989). Southernness is generally measured as a binary variable reflecting location in a Southern or a non-Southern state. However, Gastil (1971) created an index, ranging from five to 30, based upon his perceptions of Southern influence in a state. Some subsequent research uses both varieties of measures, but this strategy is not universal (e.g., Loftin & Hill, 1974). In general, this vein of research shows that homicide rates correlate with Southernness, poverty rates, unemployment rates, percent urban population, and other ecological variables. Given the common problem of multicollinearity between Southernness and indicators of economic impoverishment, it is not surprising that mixed results emerge. Probably the most rigorous review of the relationship between Southernness and homicide was done by Land et al. (1990). Land and

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his colleagues examined 21 major ecological studies which contained 34 findings on Southernness and homicide. In all cases, the original authors had controlled for some covariates of Southernness, such as poverty rates and the proportion African-American population. Only thirteen of the 34 findings indicated a positive relationship between Southernness and homicide. Land et al. (1990) also conducted a sophisticated reanalysis of nine major data sets from past research. This secondary analysis corrected for the persistent problem of multicollinearity. Land et al. (1990) determined that even with this correction, Southern location was related to homicide risk in seven of the nine data sets. As in other ecological studies, the homicide risk of Southern in-migrants and out-migrants could not be estimated. Ecological-based research since the Land et al. (1990) review has continued to be equivocal in its findings (e.g., Kposowa & Breault, 1993; Nelsen et al., 1994; Peterson & Krivco, 1993). To date, an informal tabulation by the present author shows that 31 of 60, or 52%, of the findings showed a positive association between Southernness and homicide, The strong association between Southernness and poverty rates continues to be a persistent problem. This relationship makes it difficult to assess the independent impact of Southernness on homicide rates in macro-level studies. The research that does find an independent effect of Southernness on homicide often conjectures that this relationship may be due to the Southern subculture of violence (e.g., Gastil, 1971; Land et al., 1990). This conclusion is reached without any aggregate measure of attitudes or beliefs concerning violence in the cities or states being analyzed. To be fair to macro-oriented researchers, such data simply do not exist. However, such a conclusion is, at best, speculative since there is no direct measurement of cultural factors.

MICRO-LEVEL RESEARCH ON SOUTHERNNESS AND HOMICIDE There is a dearth of complementary research at the individual level regarding Southernness and homicide. City-based homicide studies employing individual-level data generally do not measure victim or offender birthplace. Hypothetically, one could calculate differential homicide risks for Southerners who have moved to non-Southern locations. However, this type of an analysis has yet to be done (e.g., Block, 1976, 1985; Chew, McCleary, Lew, & Wang, 1999; Tardiff & Gross, 1981). Similarly, a comparison of homicide risks for Southern in-migrants with native Southerners is also lacking (e.g., Centerwall, 1984,

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1995; Cheatwood, 1990; Rodriguez & Smithey, 1999; Sinauer, Bowling, Moracco, Runyan, & Butts, 1999). National studies which use individual-level data also overlook birthplace and, as a result, provide no information on geographical mobility, Southernness, and homicide risk (e.g., Shackelford, 2001; Stack, 1995; Underwood & Patch, 1999; Wilbanks, 1986). A few individual-level investigations incorporating region do exist. Unfortunately, the typical approach is to measure just the region of present residence. Region or state of birth is not captured, thus making it impossible to explore homicide risks for migrants into and out of the South. The two investigations that do adopt this approach find, as anticipated, that Southern residence is associated with higher-than-average homicide risks for individuals (Kposowa, 1999; Kposowa, Singh, & Breault, 1994). Unfortunately, the sample of homicides is less than 200 cases. Two investigations have explored the impact of international relocation to Los Angeles on immigrant homicide risk. Immigrants to Los Angeles experienced a 4% higher risk of homicide in comparison with the native population. However, when race was controlled, the risk rose any where between 19% and 57%, depending on which racial group was assessed (Sorenson & Shen, 1996; Sorenson & Lew, 2000). The extent to which various immigrants hailed from nations with a high homicide rate or culture of violence is not clear in these studies.

SOUTHERN CULTURE A number of micro-level investigations have examined Southernness and attitudes toward violence (for reviews, see Cohen, Nisbett, Bowdle, & Schwarz, 1996; Hawley & Messner, 1989, pp. 492-496). This literature is marked by much debate. However, if one makes a key distinction between defensive and offensive violence, recent work has moved the field towards a consensus on Southernness and cultural attitudes towards violence. National opinion poll data confirm the existence of a Southern "subculture of defensive violence." These studies tend to find that Southerners are more supportive of defensive, but usually not offensive, acts of violence than non-Southerners (e.g., Cohen & Nisbett, 1994; Dixon & Lizotte, 1987; Ellison, 1991; Ellison & McCall, 1989). Experimental work also lends credence to the Southern "regional culture of violence" thesis. By manipulating insults to Southern and non-Southern students and then immediately taking biological measurements, researchers have documented how being reared in the South and its emphasis on honor actually affect people (Cohen et al., 1996;

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Nisbett & Cohen, 1996). For example, testosterone levels rose substantially higher in Southern than Northern men after they were bumped into and insulted by disguised research assistants (Cohen et al., 1996). Such overreactions would predispose relocated Southerners to be more likely than their non-Southern counterparts to respond aggressively to affronts. Taken to the extreme, this overreaction to insults means that Southern out-migrants would be more apt to become involved in homicidal incidents than their non-Southern counterparts.

THE PRESENT STUDY Individual-level research on homicide victims can contribute to the literature in a new way by zeroing in on the risk of homicide for categories of people that ecological analyses cannot sort out readily. For example, one can estimate the risk of homicide victimization for poor people at the micro-level. Even though poverty rates are generally associated with homicide rates in ecological work, the extent to which poor people account for homicide remains unclear. With respect to Southernness, macro-level associations between Southernness and homicide rates do not reveal the extent to which Southern-born persons account for homicide. Only micro-level data can estimate these risks. The present study draws upon the routine activities/opportunity perspective (Cohen & Felson, 1979; Jackson, 1984; Miethe & Meier, 1990) to understand the connection between Southernness and homicide. This theoretical formulation is well-suited for the data presently being analyzed since they represent victimization, not offender-based, data. According to this view, victimization is most likely to occur when three conditions intersect. They include the presence of a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the absence of an effective guardian. The structural opportunity for crime, in turn, is influenced by certain routine activities that govern the lives of people at risk (Cohen & Felson, 1979; Miethe & Meier, 1990). A key concern of routine activities theory is the degree of exposure to motivated offenders. For example, time spent in dangerous activities, such as going to nightclubs after hours or traveling through places where one is exposed to a greater risk of larceny and robbery (Cochran, Bromley, & Branch, 2001), can increase the odds of victimization. Changes in routine activities, such as increased women's labor force participation, can promote opportunities for crime through greater exposure to offenders in subways, bus stops, and parking garages. Opportunities for crime grow as more people are on the street coming and going to work. The present paper applies the routine activity-opportunity perspective to the problem of Southernness, migration, and homicide risk. The

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South, given its high homicide rate, constitutes an area that contains a relatively large proportion of motivated offenders. All things being equal, persons who live in the South are assumed to be at a relatively higher risk of homicide victimization. Simply put, persons who migrate to the South increase their exposure to a class of motivated offenders and, as such, should have a relatively high rate of homicide. In contrast, Southerners who move out of the South are relocating to a relatively safer area since they are a step removed from the class of motivated Southern offenders. As a result, their homicide risk should level out and resemble that of the rest of the nation where the relative size of the class of motivated offenders is smaller. Finally, Southern natives (people who are born in the South and who stay in the South) should exhibit a relatively higher rate of homicide victimization because of life-long exposure to this motivated class of offenders. The key control variable in the present study is socioeconomic status. This variable, usually measured as the poverty rate, has triggered much debate in ecological work. In addition to having the highest homicide rates, the Southern region also displays the highest poverty rates (e.g., Loftin & Hill, 1974; Parker & Smith, 1979). Hence, poverty is a crucial variable in ecological work. Given its salience, the present paper also needs to control for socioeconomic status. For example, it may be that migrants from the South are disproportionately poor people. If so, their homicide rate may remain high after they leave the Sow.h because they are still poor and live in impoverished areas where homicide rates are high. In a similar vein, if migrants from the South move disproportionately to large cities, they may still remain at a greater risk of homicide victimization. Large cities have relatively higher homicide rates (e.g., Kposowa & Breault, 1993; Land et al., 1990) and contain relatively larger numbers of motivated offenders. For this reason, the present paper also controls for population size. Additional socioeconomic controls are incorporated in the present analysis for similar reasons.

METHODOLOGY Homicide data come from the 1990 national mortality tapes (U.S. Public Health Service, 1994). Data were not taken from the major alternative source of homicide data, the Supplemental Homicide Reports (U.S. Department of Justice, 1994), for two reasons. First, these files do not contain any place-of-birth information for either the victim or the offender. This oversight precludes an analysis of the impact of migration into and out of the South. Second, the Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR) contain no control groups of persons dying from other

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causes of death. Since the purpose of the present investigation is to calculate the risk of dying from homicide as opposed to mortality from other causes, the SHR is an inappropriate data source. Other local homicide databases, such as the Chicago-based records (Block & Block, 1994), are also not pertinent for the very same reasons. Following previous micro-level research (e.g., Kposowa et al., 1994), the risk of homicide was measured as a binary variable. A value of one indicated death by homicide and zero referred to death by any other cause. Since the dependent variable is dichotomous, logistic regression techniques are appropriate (Menard, 1995). The sample was restricted to just 21 states since data on a key control variable, socioeconomic status, were not available for every state. The 21 states are Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Complete data were available for 2,647 homicide victims and for 403,184 persons who died from other causes. An analysis of the entire United States (not reported here) without the socioeconomic measures yielded essentially the same results for the Southern location variables. Following previous research (Dixon & Lizotte, 1987), the southern region was defined as the census South and measured in terms of a series of binary variables. The term "Southern Natives" refers to persons who were born in the South and resided in the South at the time of death. "Southern Out-Migrants" includes persons born in the South, but who died outside the South. The "Southern In-Migrants" contains persons who were born outside the South but who resided in the South at the time of death. The residual or control category consists of persons who were born outside the South and who died outside the South. Socioeconomic status is measured in two ways. Occupational status is operationalized as a binary variable in terms of seven available occupational categories (unskilled, skilled, service, farming, military, technical, and homemaker) with professional/managerial workers constituting the benchmark or comparison group. Education is dichotomized as less than eight years of education (1) versus all other levels (0). Controls are introduced for standard demographic variables found in the homicide literature (Land et al., 1990). Urbanity is measured as a set of binary variables based on county population size with less than 100,000 inhabitants serving as the comparison group. Gender is dichotomized as being male (1) or female (0), while age is continuous. Marital status reflects being divorced, single, and widowed with being married as the comparison category. Race uses the comparison cate-

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AND HOMICIDE

gory of Caucasian American to distinguish African-American and other nonwhite races.

RESULTS Table 1 contains the zero-order correlation matrix. A preliminary analysis checking for the presence of multicollinearity reveals that none of the variance inflation factors are greater than five, indicating the absence of multicollinearity (Lewis-Beck, 1990). There is a significant association between being a Southern native and homicide risk, as well as a significant association between being an in-migrant and homicide risk. Homicide risk is also significantly related to out-migration from the South. Gender, singleness, and divorce enhance homicide risk. Members of minority groups have, as anticipated, elevated homicide risk. Persons in such occupations as service and unskilled occupations have a higher odds of homicide than others. Finally, persons residing in cities of more than 250,000 face a greater risk of homicide victimization.

TABLE 1 Correlation Matrix (n = 405,831) Xl X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9Xlo Xll X12X13X14X15Xl6 Xl7 Xl8 X19X20X21X22 Y Homicide 03 01 01-01 02 00 01 03 0 0 - 0 3 - 0 2 - 1 8 01 01 01 00 04 03 09-05 09 02 X~ Natives - 1 8 - 1 0 - 0 5 02 06 02 04 02-01 2 3 - 0 6 - 1 0 - 2 0 - 0 5 07 01-01 00 00 22-01 X2 Out-Migrants - 0 6 - 0 4 05-03 00 05 01 00 0 4 - 0 2 06 11 01-05 00 03-03 00 23-01 X3 In-Migrants 0 1 - 0 2 - 0 3 01-03 0 6 - 0 1 - 0 3 - 0 3 - 0 3 - 0 6 - 0 1 03 01 00 0 0 - 0 2 - 0 3 01 X4 Technical - 1 3 - 1 0 - 1 6 - 1 9 - 0 4 - 2 4 - 1 1 - 0 3 01 04 04 00-03 03 0 4 - 0 4 - 0 7 - 0 2 Xs Service - 0 7 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 0 3 - 1 8 03-05 01 00 00 01-05 04 04 01 16 01 X6 Farming - 0 9 - 1 1 - 0 2 - 1 3 11 0 5 - 0 4 - 0 8 - 0 6 - 0 2 20-02 04-05 02 02 X7 Skilled - 1 7 - 0 3 - 2 2 02-07 01 00-01 01 33 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 00 X8 Unskilled - 0 4 - 2 5 08-12 01 01-02 01 23 05 0 4 - 1 0 09 00 X9 Military - 0 5 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 1 - 0 2 02 02 08 01 00-05 00 00 Xl0 Homemaker 04-21 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 0 1 - 5 8 - 0 9 - 1 3 32-06 00 Xll Low Education 1 3 - 0 1 - 0 6 - 0 3 04 02-02 0 4 - 0 6 13 03 X12 Age -01-03-04-01-22-18-22 46-14-05 X,3 Pop ! Million - 0 9 - 0 9 - 1 0 00 01 01-01 05-01 X~4 Pop 500,000 - 2 4 - 2 4 00 01 0 2 - 0 2 05-02 X~s Pop 250,000 - 2 6 00 01 0 0 - 0 2 02 00 X,6 Pop 100,000 00 01-01 00-02 00 X~7 Male 03 04-41 01 01 X~8 Divorced - 0 9 - 2 3 03 01 X,9 Single -23 08 02 X20 Widowed -02-02 X2~ African American -02 X22 Other Nonwhite

Table 2 presents the results of the full logistic regression model with the terms representing both Southernness and the demographic controls entered into the equation. Controlling for socioeconomic status, urban location, and the other predictor variables, Southern out-migrants are at an elevated risk of homicide victimization. The odds ratio

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i n d i c a t e s t h e y a r e 2 9 % m o r e l i k e l y to d i e f r o m h o m i c i d e t h a n S o u t h e r n n a t i v e s a n d m i g r a n t s i n t o t h e S o u t h . P e r s o n s w h o m i g r a t e into t h e S o u t h e x p e r i e n c e t h e a n t i c i p a t e d h e i g h t e n e d risk a n d a r e 6 5 % m o r e l i k e l y to b e h o m i c i d e victims t h a n t h e c o n t r o l s . A s e x p e c t e d , S o u t h e r n n a t i v e s a r e also significantly m o r e l i k e l y t h a n t h e c o n t r o l s t o b e h o m i c i d e victims.

TABLE 2 The Effect of Southernness on the Odds of Dying from Homicide (n = 2,647) versus Other Causes of Death (n = 403,184) in 1990 Variable Southernness: Southern Natives Southern Out-Migrants Southern In-Migrants Occupation: Technical Service Farming Skilled Unskilled Military Homemaker Low Education Age

b

SE

0.46* 0.26* 0.50*

0.05 0.07 0.10

0.04 0.29* 0.38* 0.41" 0.32* -0.52* -0.14"

0.09 0.09 0.12 0.08 0.08 0.22 0.11

0.23*

0.10

-0.10"

0.001

Wald X2

13

Odds Ratio

73.061 13.168 26.700

0.106 0.041 0.047

1.59 1.29 1.65

0.181 11.224 10.485 24.251 16.346 5.373 1.487

0.007 0.045 0.046 0.076 0.065 -0.025 -0.0320

1.04 1.33 1.43 1.51 1.37 0.60 0.87

5.580

0.039

1.26

3886.132

-0.882

0.90

County Size 1,000,000+ 500,000-1,000,000 250,000-500,000 100,000-250,000

0.54* 0.33* 0.09* 0.05

0.11 0.07 0.06 0.06

24.123 25.911 2.536 0.748

0.053 0.070 0.020 0.011

1.72 1.39 1.10 1.05

Male

0.18"

0.06

10.350

0.050

1.20

0.48* -0.10 0.23*

0.06 0.06 0.10

65.739 3.575 5.670

0.071 -0.015 0.061

1.61 0.90 1.26

1.27" 1.04"

0.05 0.13

705.568 58.741

0.204 0.041

3.54 2.82

Marital Status Divorced Single Widowed Race: African American Other Non-White

- 2 Log L = 31918.8, X2~- 10881.1, df = 22, p = 0.0001, Contingency C = 0.929 * p < 0.05

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Persons who work in occupations of relatively low status are at greater risk of homicide victimization in comparison to professionalmanagerial workers. This relationship is consistent with theoretical expectations. Controlling for the other variables in the equation, for example, manual workers (unskilled and skilled) have an elevated risk of homicide. Members of the military and homemakers are significantly less likely to die from homicide. Having less than eight years of education also increases the odds of death by homicide. As anticipated, persons who reside in large urban areas tend to be at higher risk of homicide than persons living in smaller places. From the associated odds ratio, each year of age decreases the odds of homicide by 90%. African Americans are 354% more likely than Caucasians to die of homicide. As anticipated, men are at greater risk of being homicide victims than women. Divorced and widowed persons have an elevated risk of homicide victimization. The degree of fit between the observed and expected values is given by the Contingency C coefficient and is 0.929. That the model as a whole is related to homicide risk is witnessed by the significant (p < .0001) -2 Log of the Likelihood function (Menard, 1995).

DISCUSSION Previous work on Southernness and homicide has neglected the influence of regional migration on the homicide risk of individuals. The present paper contributes to the literature by performing the first systematic test of the influence of Southern-based migration on individuallevel homicide risk. The results bear mixed support for the routine activities/opportunity perspective. Contrary to theoretical expectations, migrants from the South do not have the same homicide victimization risk as their nonSouthern associates. Instead, their chances are significantly greater than that of non-Southerners. This finding is independent of controls for important covariates of Southernness including socioeconomic status and race. However, as anticipated, both Southern in-migrants and Southern natives have a significantly higher risk of homicide victimization than the controls. Finally, the anticipated relationships between the socio-demographic controls and homicide victimization are largely confirmed. An important micro-level finding in the present study is that Southern residence is significantly related to homicide risk independent of socioeconomic status. This finding is consistent with the macro-level analysis of Land et al. (1990) and others (e.g., Blau & Golden, 1986; Gastil, 1971; Huff-Corzine, et al., 1986; Messner, 1982, 1983; Nelsen et al., 1994; Rosenfeld, 1986).). Generally, these researchers find that in-

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dices, such as poverty rates, are significantly associated with homicide rates while, at the same time, Southernness is also related to homicide rates. The present results are based on just the 21 states for which socioeconomic data are available. Replication for a larger group of states would strengthen these results. While data limitations do not allow such an endeavor at the present time, the results (not shown here) can be repeated for 46 states for which data on an alternative measure of SES are available. Using education level as a measure of SES, the resuits from Table 1 were replicated for 46 states (n = 17,976 homicides, 1,583,000 deaths from other causes). For example, the group most apt to die from homicide in this expanded analysis was the native Southernborn (odds ratio = 1.71). The second most likely to die of homicide were migrants into the South, followed by the Southern expatriates. The order regarding the risk of homicide was exactly the same as that reported in the present study. One key issue that remains is dissecting why relocated Southerners are at greater risk of homicide victimization despite moving to a safer environment with fewer motivated offenders. While the present study is incapable of responding empirically to this issue, one suggestion is offered. It may be, as the Southern subculture of violence perspective asserts, that historical conditions and past cultural practices have generated a distinctive Southern identity which is perpetuated through the socialization process (e.g., Brown, 1969; Cohen et al., 1996, p. 946; Ellison, 1991; Franklin, 1956; Gastil, 1971; Hackney, 1969). In order to test the cultural underpinnings of the Southernness thesis more rigorously, concentrated data pertaining to attitudes and cultural values would be needed from a sample of Southern migrants and their counterparts. This study group should include persons convicted of homicide and other violent offenses. While such an undertaking has yet to be initiated, perhaps an ambitious study of this sort is on the horizon. In any event, previous macro-level and micro-level work, including the present study, cannot directly confirm or deny the existence of a regional culture of violence theory. While the results indicate that Southern out-migrants are at an increased risk of homicide independent of socioeconomic status, urban location, race, and other covariates of Southernness, this outcome does not prove that the increased homicide risk is due to socialization in a Southern culture of violence. However, the attractiveness of such an explanation grows simply because so many alternative explanations are overruled.

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CONCLUSION Previous work on the connection between homicide risk and Southern residence has been based almost exclusively on ecological data. Given the ecological nature of these studies, researchers have been unable to ascertain if the persons involved in these homicides were actually impoverished and/or adherents to a Southern subculture of violence. While the present study cannot resolve this problem, it represents the first national project to explore the impact of Southernness on homicide at the individual level. Persons migrating out of the South face a greater risk of homicide even after controlling for their socioeconomic status position in society. One plausible explanation for their homicide risk is adherence to a risky lifestyle, possibly including the "subculture of honor." The subculture of h o n o r has been observed among Southern migrants to the North in experimental research (e.g., Cohen et al., 1996; Nisbett & Cohen, 1996). This argument is also consistent with results based on aggregated data which find that Southernness exerts an independent positive effect on homicide rates independent of economic strain and other variables (see review in Land et al., 1990). Mears and Stafford (2002) point out that a test of the vitality of a theory is the extent to which it can explain a variety of dependent variables. One could replicate the present study using other forms of deviant behavior, such as different types of violent crime, property offenses, suicide, and crimes without victims. Perhaps, Southern out-migrants may not be at enhanced risk of other forms of criminal victimization beyond homicide. This expectation may be especially true of nonviolent offenses. For example, if the regional culture of violence thesis explains continued involvement in a dangerous lifestyle with the associated risk of homicide victimization for former Southerners, then this perspective lends itself more to violent crimes, such as aggravated assault, than to nonviolent crimes which may not depend as much on cultural support. While the limitations of the data set prevent the current investigation from dealing with this issue, future work based on alternative data sources might be in a position to explore this theoretical issue.

REFERENCES Bailey, W. (1984). Poverty, inequality, and city homicide rates. Criminology, 22, 531-550. Blau, P., & Golden, R. M. (1986). Metropolitan structure and criminal violence. Sociological Quarterly, 27, 15-26. Block, C. R. (1985). Race/ethnieity and patterns of Chicago homicide 1965-1981. Crime & Delinquency, 31, 104-116.

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