Spatial and Temporal Variations in Precipitation and ...

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Spatial and Temporal Variations in Precipitation and their Impacts on the Doonagiri Glacier, Uttarakhand, and its Adjoining Habitats (With special emphasis on Impacts of Climate Change on Dunagiri Glacier and its Adjoining Inhabitants- The Socioeconomic Dimension)

Submitted to MyCOE / SERVIR Fellowship Program in the Himalayas and Doon University

Submitted By Ms. Urvi Lakhera, Student, School of Environmental Studies and Natural Resources

DOON UNIVERSITY, DEHRADUN ADVISOR

MENTOR

Prof. G.B Pant Visiting Professor SENR, Doon University, Kedarpur, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India PIN- 248001 Review editor, IPCC working Group 2007 Former Director Indian Institute of Tropical Meteriology Pune, India

Dr. Suneet Naithani, Assistant Professor I/C, Department of Environmental Studies School of Environmental Studies and Natural Resources Doon University, Kedarpur , Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India PIN: 248001 email- [email protected]

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CONTENTS Acknowledgements Abbreviations List of Figures

1 Introduction 1.1. Overview 1.2. Objectives 1.3. Justification 1.4. Organization of Report

2 State-of-the-Art Review and Development of Hypotheses 2.1. General 2.2. Climate Change- Global Context 2.2.1. Global Temperature Change 2.2.2 Change in precipitation and atmospheric moisture 2.3. Climate Change and Himalayas 2.4. Aerosol Loading 2.5. Physical Impacts of Climate Change 2.5.1. Impact on water resources and hydrology- Global perspective 2.5.2. Impact of Climate Change on Water resources- Himalayan perspective 2.5.2.1. Snow and Glacier 2.5.2.2. River discharge 2.6. Socioeconomic Impacts 2.7. Climate Change in Doonagiri, Uttarakhand 2.8. Open questions 2.9. Development of Hypotheses

3 Review of Literature

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4 Study area 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Topography 4.3. Drainage 4.4. Climate 4.5. Flora and Fauna 4.6. Population Composition

5 Data Base and Research Methodology 5.1. Data Description 5.2. Methodology 5.2.1. Preliminary preparations 5.2.2. Digitization 5.2.3. Adding attribute data 5.2.4. Classification 5.2.5. Socioeconomic survey

6 Results, Conclusions and Recommendations

References

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I express my grateful thanks to AAG (Association of American Geographers) for giving me the opportunity to explore the wide dimensions of Remote Sensing. Also I am grateful to ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development) for good hospitality and knowledge sharing during the workshop at Nepal.

I would like to offer my gratitude to Dr. Suneet Naithani, Assistant professor, Doon University who put his trust in my abilities and whose active guidance and criticism helped me shape this project.

Also I am thankful towards my HOD and all the faculty members of School of Environmental Studies and Natural Resource Management for allowing me to gain practical knowledge about my interest in topic at MYCOE (My Community Our Earth), SERVIR program which is a joint initiative taken by AAG (Association of American Geographers), ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development), NASA, ESRI and USAID (United States agency for International Development).

This acknowledgement would not be complete if I did not mention the general helping attitudes and activities of all the participants at MYCOE, SERVIR workshop held at Nepal from 17-27 February 2013. They have created a highly helpful and comfortable ambience, which was most essential for carrying out my work.

Urvi Lakhera

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Abstract Since industrialization, human activities have significantly altered the atmospheric composition, leading to climate change of an unprecedented character that ultimately results in increased global mean surface temperature. This warming has directly impacted the temperature sensitive snow and ice cover, resulting in rapid glacial melt that increase the size and number of glacial lakes to the stage of glacial lake outburst floods which calls for a major catastrophe in near future. Being close to the Tropic of Cancer, the Himalayan glaciers receive more heat and hence they are very sensitive to the rising temperature both at regional and global levels. Scientific evidence indicates that glaciers in the Hindu-Kush-Karakoram and Himalayan (HKKH) region show fluctuations (advancing or retreating) w.r.t. climatic variations. The implications of these fluctuations result in increase in glacial wastage have not been precisely characterized. Incomplete science and unresolved uncertainties about glaciers need to be addressed. The proposed study area i.e. Dunagiri Glacier, an important glacier in Chamoli district of Uttarakhand state and adjoining habitats is the magical land, a treasure house of natural splendour and divine beauty of Uttarakhand. The glacier is small but an important component of the Dhauliganga River which contributes its magnitude to the river Alaknanda’s catchment. It is noticeable that the river Alaknanda is being shelved with major hydroelectric dams in near future. Very few studies have been reported for this mighty glacier which is situated at the fringe of Nandadevi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR) known for its biodiversity. While seeing the scientific value of the study, the objectives are set to study the spatial extant of Dunagiri Glacier and its adjoining habitat, to study carrying capacity

of

village

ecosystem

emphasizing

waste

categorization

(biodegradable & non-biodegradable) and socio economic impacts of climatic anomalies and to study the population dynamics of adjoining habitat. The study will be conducted with primary and secondary data for the fulfilment of objectives provided by SERVIR. The combination of satellite remote sensing

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data and GIS will be used for better interpretations and more accurate results for the inventory of glacier. The study reveal the current status of Dunagiri glacier (retreating, advancing, stable) and if so its immediate impacts on the surrounding habitats, flora and fauna. Also, data will be generated regarding the current utilization of resources by the people living nearby and their dynamics along with simultaneous waste generation characterization which may be one of the parameter adding to the cause of rising temperature. Last but not the least the database can be used by many researchers for future studies and for precise results of witnessing climatic change in Himalayas.

Keywords: Climate change, Hindu-kush-karakoram and Himalayan (HKKH) region, GIS (Geographic Information System), Carrying capacity.

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Chapter1: Introduction

1.1. Overview Glacier ice covers some 10 per cent of the earth’s land surface at the present time and covered about three times as much during the ice ages. However, at present, all but about one per cent of this ice is in areas remote from normal human activities, the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Thus it is not surprising that the relatively small glaciers on mountain areas were the first to attract attention (The Physics of Glaciers, W.S.B. Paterson). Global glacier cover, at present, is reported to be about 15,000,000 km² of which 114,800 km2 is in the HKKH (Hindu-Kush, Karakoram and Himalayas) Ranges of High Asia, with the number of identifiable glaciers exceeding about 50,000 (Armstrong et al, 2010; Dyurgerov and Meier 2005). Glaciations’ in the Himalayan mountain chain is a consequence of the last ice age-Pleistocene, two million years to date. What led to this ice age is still a matter of discussion? Many a theories have been put forward to explain the advent of glaciations and the origin of glaciers. Whatever the explanation, the fact is that we did have an Ice Age. It was not a continuous phase; there were periods of cold climate with accumulation and advance of ice cover with periods of warm climate and ice degeneration. The northern hemisphere ice cover and its periodic fluctuations are now, generally, believed to be the direct consequence of the periodic instability and surging of the Antarctic ice sheet. (MoEF Discussion Paper on Himalayan glaciers). Glaciologists believe that there may have been as many as 21 glacial cycles during the last ice age, alternating with number of interglacial warm periods. Each successive glacial cycle, obviously, being less than the previous ones. Present era, which is attributed to the interglacial warm period, has, by and large, been the period of glacier retreat. Within the Himalayan Mountain chain, the territorial limits of India have the largest ice cover in terms of number of glaciers. These comprise glaciers varying in size from a small niche glacier to as

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large as 74 km long-Siachen glacier, the second largest glacier outside the Polar Regions (MoEF Discussion Paper on Himalayan glaciers). Since the inception of glacier studies, it has been believed that glaciers are the easiest and perhaps the most sensitive indicators of climate change. The glacial environs of the Himalayas are widely accepted to be susceptible to climate forcing. Though the Indian hydrology is greatly dependant on the South –West Monsoons, during the rest of the year glacier melt water feeds the rivers and sustains the population. Thus, the scientific study of the Himalayan glaciers and their response to the climatic variability is of utmost importance if India is to attain sustainable growth (DST, 2012). Recently, glacier mass-balance data has gained an increased attention in global climate change detection studies (Meier, 1984; Oerlemans and Fortuin, 1992; Kuhn, 1993; Dyurgerov and Meier, 1997a; Gregory and Oerlemans, 1998) as the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007a; 2007b) has shown that glaciers contributed about 20% to the sea level rise over the previous century. Even so, due to the lack of a comprehensive database glaciological data are not widely used in hydrology and for climate monitoring. However, the need for spatial and temporal monitoring of glaciers has been recognized. Glaciers, world over are being inventoried by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). Prior to going in the detail study of the glaciers, it would, perhaps, be proper to give a brief explanation as to what is a glacier and its characteristics?

What is a glacier? A glacier is a large mass of ice formed by compaction and re-crystallisation of snow, moving slowly by creep down slope, due to the stress of its own weight, and surviving from year to year. The flow movement, irrespective of whether it is a few centimetres a day or, as in the case of surging glaciers, tens of metres a day, differentiates a glacier from a dead ice body. Ice forming a glacier can derive either directly from liquid transformed to ice at the glacier surface or, as is generally the case, from the precipitation of snow and ice crystals from the atmosphere. Water vapour, which freezes on contact with the glacier surface, forms several types of ice, the most important of which is rime. It is formed when super-cooled water droplets strike a cold solid object and freeze on impact. 8

Major contributor to the ice formation is, however, the annual snow fall-direct precipitation, which may continue, at a stretch, for months, during the winter season. Snow that accumulates, over the glacier surface, during the previous winter, if it is not removed in the following summer, will gradually undergo a change to glacier ice. The term firn is generally applied to the snow that has survived a summer melt season and has begun its transformation to ice. Transformation of firn to ice takes place through a variety of processes, whose, over all, effect is to increase the crystal size, eliminate the air passages and thus increase the overall density of ice to anywhere around 0.85gcm³ to 0.90gcm³. A normal valley glacier, in its longitudinal profile, from the head to the terminus exhibits two characteristic zones: 1. Accumulation zone; 2. Ablation zone.

Accumulation Zone Accumulation is the addition of ice or snow to the glacier surface by snowfall, hail, drift snow, avalanche snow and the rain that freezes. The zone, over the glacier surface, where the accumulation takes place relative to the previous year’s surface, is termed as the accumulation Zone. It is easily identifiable in a glacier as a clear white snow/ice surface devoid of any surface moraines.

Ablation Zone Ablation is the loss of ice from the glacier by melting, evaporation, calving and deflation etc. The zone, over the glacier surface, within which the loss of ice takes place, as compared to the previous year’s surface, is called the Ablation Zone. It is highly dirty and rubble covered and often the glacier surface is marked by melt water ponds, or even occasionally with the presence of supra-glacial lake.

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Fig.1: Diagrammatic representation of zones of glacier

Equilibrium Line Line that theoretically separates the accumulation zone from the ablation zone over the glacier surface is called the Equilibrium Line. This line, presumably, marks the surface of the glacier where the accumulation and ablation are at par. Basically the position of the line is governed by the mass balance of the glacier. Positive balance brings down the position of this line on the glacier surface and the negative balance leads to the recession of this line on the glacier surface. Equilibrium line, in a broad way, corresponds to the permanent snow line and is used; now days, by glaciologists to identify the two zones of a glacier on satellite imageries/vertical air photographs.

The Snout-lowest extremity of a glacier The snout-lowest extremity of a glacier, basically, a part of the ablation zone reflects the personality and the health of a glacier. Snout of an advancing glacier is relatively clean and shows a bulging nature while that of a retreating glacier is highly degenerated. It is this characteristic feature of the snout that had led the glaciologists to believe that, “the snout marks the point where the melting caused by the increased temperatures of the lower altitudes balances the supply of ice from above”. The region above the snow-line on any glacier is its region of supply; below the snow-line is the region of waste. Yet during the colder months of the year on most glaciers there are constant supply and little waste taking place right down to the snout. In the depths of winter all precipitation 10

feeds the glacier as snow, the sun has little power, radiation and conduction are consequently negligible, rain and running water non-existent. Sometimes, though very rarely, it may lead to a seasonal advance in winter, a seasonal retreat in summer. The summer retreat is usually accompanied by a flattening and temporary degeneration of the snout. In the winter and spring a glacier, more than often, exhibits the nature of a steep-fronted clean glacier with the winter snow/ice covering the supra-glacial moraine; in summer and autumn the sun and rain flattens the snout by melting and en-glacial moraine comes to the surface. These are normal seasonal signs and should not be wrongly adduced as evidence of secular or periodic movement, as they often are. Reversal of the above, i.e., when a glacier in summer shows a steep-fronted end, or in winter a flattened can be considered as evidence for periodic or secular advance or retreat.

Why are Glaciers Important? Glaciers carve and transform the surrounding and underlying landscape through erosion, abrasion, plucking, movement and deposition. Like a huge conveyor belt glaciers transport earth material down from the lofty mountains carving valleys and discharging the material along the sides and at the terminal of the glacier. The glaciers normally terminate into a fluvial system which carries the soil, sediments and boulders along the river valleys, depositing and transporting, to ultimately join the oceanic system, thus completing the journey from mountain to sea. Glaciers are the storehouse of water in solid phase holding about 77% of the worlds fresh water resources. They feed major rivers with unique run-off characteristics, buffering changes in the river flows. Glaciers serve as proxy for weather parameters in areas and locations where direct measurements are not feasible. They also store some unique information about the past climate and atmospheric composition. Landforms and sediments produced by glaciers provide geologic proxies for climate/environmental change. Also, as a source of scenic beauty, glaciers are a major tourist attraction and source of revenue in many countries.

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The Himalayan glaciers constituting the dominant component of the High Mountains of Asia, the largest glacier-mountain system outside the Polar Regions, occupy the highest altitudes in the world and feed the perennial life-sustaining rivers of north India. Due to their extreme altitude, Himalayan glaciers form and modulate regional and global climate systems on several time and spatial scales. Melt waters from glaciers on reaching the Bay of Bengal alter its salinity and density distribution and thus affect the oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns. Monitoring, studying and understanding glaciers are, therefore, of vital importance for managing the river flows and power generation, conserving the biodiversity, weather forecasting and sustaining the life-livelihood-systems of the Himalayan terrain and the plains below. In the context of the global warming and climate change, the fears are that the melting of glaciers will drastically affect the landscape, slope stability, the water cycle, the sediment load in rivers, the sea level and natural hazards far beyond the historical and Holocene variability.

Classification of Glaciers: Glaciers are categorized in many ways but principally by their morphology (Fig. 2) and thermal characteristics. In the morphological classification, there are two main categories, confined and unconfined. Mountain glaciers are confined by topography, Continental glaciers are unconfined. Mountain glaciers that flow down a valley are called valley glaciers. Cirque glaciers are the smallest of mountain glaciers and form in amphitheatre like bowls. A piedmont glacier is a valley glacier that spills out into the adjacent flat land. Unconfined glaciers are usually massive; they can be 1000’s of sq. Km in area and 1000’s of meters thick.

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Classification

Morphology

Confined Ice

Cirque Glacier

Valley Glacier

Peidmont Glacier

Temperature

Unconfined Ice

Surface

Bed

Continental Ice sheets /Caps

Temperature Polar,Sub Polar

Warm based,Cold based

Fig.2: Classification of Glaciers

Indian Himalayan Glaciers The Himalaya support nearly half of humanity “Him” “ means snow “alaya” means mountain.. The mountains of snow have also been called the third pole, since they are the third largest body of snow on our planet after the Antarctic and Arctic. The total spread of the Himalaya lies between Latitudes 250 and 350 N and Longitudes 600 and 1050 E covering an area of 4.6x106 Km2 above 1500 m asl. Out of this, 3.28x106 Km2 lies above 3000 m asl and 0.56x106 Km2 lies above 5400 m asl (Shanker and Srivastava, 2001). In India, the range extends form over a length of about 2500 Km from Pamir (beyond Karakoram Range) in the west to Mishmi Hills in the east with convexity to the south. The width varies between 150 and 400 Km. There are ~14 peaks above 8000 m high and many more over 7000 and 6000 m (Ramakrishnan and Vaidyanathan, 2008). 20 The Himalayan mountain system extends over 12 states in India. Though the main Himalayan range is in India, Nepal and Bhutan, the northern slopes extend into the Tibetan Plateau. Between Tibet in the north and the IndoIndo Gangetic Plain in the south, the main range can be divided into: Trans Himalaya

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(Tethys domain-Karakoram range, Ladakh range, Zaskar range, elevation 3K-6k m asl), Great Himalaya (Himadri, elevation 6k-8k m asl), Lesser Himalaya (Pir Panjal, Dhauladhar ranges) and Outer Himalaya (Siwalik, elevation range 100800 m asl).(Fig.3) This parallel to sub-parallel chain of high mountains has been formed by an intricate matrix of faults, thrusts and folds caused by the collision of the Indian plate with the Asian Plate, initiated ~ 50 Ma, and the resultant orogenic activity. The process of collision is still active and is manifested in various forms of neotectonic, geologic and geophysical activities. As the mountain chain gradually rose, glaciers began to emerge on its landscape to eventually become the perennial source of water to the extra peninsular rivers of the Indian subcontinent. The glaciers in the Indian Himalaya have been inventoried on the basis of two first order river basins e.g. the Indus and the Ganga (Kaul, 1999; Raina and Srivastava, 2008; Sangewar and Shukla, 2009).These have been further subdivided up to fifth order basins. On the basis of this inventory, there are 9,575 glaciers in the Indian Himalaya with the Indus Basin having 7,997 (33,679 Km2) and the Ganga Basin, which includes the Brahmaputra basin also, having 1,578 (3,787 Km2) glaciers. The total area under glaciers is estimated to be 37,466 km2.

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Fig.3: The Hindu-Kush-Himalayan Region adapted from ICIMOD report on The status of Glaciers.

The HKKH region extends from 15.950 to 39.310 N latitude and 60.850 to105.040E longitude, encompassing an area of mountains more than 4,192,000 km2 in the eight countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. The region is one of the most dynamic, fragile and complex mountain systems in the world as a result of tectonic activity and the rich diversity of climates, hydrology and ecology (The status of glaciers in the Hindu KushHimalaya Region, ICIMOD). The HKKH mountain ranges, especially the Himalayas, determine the climate patterns for a large part of lower Asia. The entire phenomenon of South-West Monsoons that sustains the Indian agriculture is based on the undulated Himalayan topography as they retain the moisture laden winds within the 15

country. They are also responsible for local and regional weather systems that keep their environs pleasant, which along with their scenic beauty, contribute to attracting thousands of tourists every year. The glaciers are located in five states namely, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. The J & K State has the highest number of glaciers - 3,136 covering nearly 13 % of the State’s territory. Nine per cent of Garhwal Himalaya is covered by 917 glaciers, Sikkim has 450 glaciers spread over 912 km2, Arunachal Pradesh has 162 glaciers covering 228 km2 (Linda, 2008). Siachin glacier in the Indus basin is the longest glacier (73 Km) having ~542 Km2 area and ~108 Km3 of ice volume. In the Ganga basin, Gangotri glacier is about 30 Km long with an area of ~144 Km2 and ~29 Km3 of ice volume. In the Indus basin, 68% of the glaciers have less than 1 Km2 area; in Ganga and Brahmaputra basins, 42% and 68% of the glaciers respectively have less than 1 Km2 of area. There are 60 glaciers in the Ganga basin, 191 glaciers in the Indus basin and 13 glaciers in the Brahmaputra basin which have area greater than 10 Km2 (Kaul, 1999; Raina and Srivastava, 2008). The study area is in Uttarakhand, which has a wildly diverse topography that ranges from hills to peaks and cliffs to ridges. This beautiful state boasts of rich forests, rivers, mountain peaks and glaciers. It is these very glaciers, which feed some of the most important rivers of India. The glaciers of Uttarakhand have an aesthetic appeal of their own. Some of these mighty glaciers are considered holy while some are visited just because of their sheer magnificence. Some of the most popular glaciers of Uttarakhand state are Bunder Punch, Dokriani Bamak, Doonagiri Glacier, Gangotri Glacier, Kafni Glacier, Khatling Glacier, Milam Glacier, Namik Glacier, Pindari Glacier, Ralam Glacier, Sunderdhunga Glacier, Maiktoli Glacier and Sukhram glacier. Several of these glaciers are also indispensable components of the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve which covers an area of 7,385.31 km2 and at an average elevation of more than 3,500 m above mean sea level. This Reserve has been a part of the UNESCO World Network of Biosphere Reserves since 2004 and was declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 1988. The park encompasses the Nanda Devi Sanctuary, a glacial basin surrounded by a ring of peaks, 6,000 -

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7,500 m high, and outlined by the tributaries of the river Ganges i.e. Dhauliganga, Girthiganga, Goriganga and Rishiganga. The sanctuary is divided into an Inner and Outer part, and the Doonagiri Glacier, which is our study area, is a part of the Outer Sanctuary and an important contributor to the Dhauliganga system of glaciers. This increases the need to study this particular glacier, as it lies in the fringe area of a national park that houses many species on the IUCN RED List, whose conservation is a global priority and any change in the regime of this glacier would directly impact the same.

1.2. Objectives The overall research question that needs an answer is:

“What is the relationship between the spatial extents of the glacier with respect to the socio economics of the dependant population systems?”

To achieve the above said research question the step by step objectives are as follows: 1. To study spatial extent of Doonagiri glacier. 2. To study population dynamics of adjoining habitats. 3. To study the carrying capacity of village ecosystem emphasizing waste categorization

(biodegradable

and

non

biodegradable)

and

socioeconomic impacts of climatic anomalies.

1.3. Justification The present study of variability in climate change and its impact on the glacial regimes and its relationship with the socio economic status of the dependant people is the first of its kind. A beginning has been made to document these changes in the glacial regime and to suggest measures to strengthen the vulnerable hill communities. There are several reasons as to why Doonagiri Glacier of Uttarakhand has been chosen as study area. These are listed below in order of importance:

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To the best of our knowledge, there have been two in-depth studies on the Doonagiri glacier during 1984-92 by Geological Survey of India (GSI), Govt. of India (Raina et al, 2012). This was essentially a monitoring and inventorying project in which they monitored parameters such as the annual retreat of the termini in meters, the change in Net Mass Balance, Average Melt Water Discharge in melt season (summer) in million cusecs, Suspended Sediment load, etc. thus, making the scope of our study a territory hitherto unexplored, as the present objective of the study is mainly to establish a relationship between the changes occurring in the glacial regime and the lives and livelihoods of the people dependant on it. The

Doonagiri

Glacier,

being

an

important

component

of

the

Dhauliganga System of glaciers which feeds the river Alaknanda’s catchment, is a small glacier which has a quicker response time and exhibits drastic sensitivity towards climatic anomalies (Raina et al., 2012). Accessibility, data availability and the stipulated time frame are the other determining factors. There is a great scope for further studies in this field of the socio economic impact of anomalies in the glacial regime, as it is the life of the people living in the vicinity that is affected first and in way that might make it very hard for them to recuperate as they are mostly vulnerable communities with no standby resource base to count on. Such mountain community specific studies are the need of the hour in today’s world. Hill areas are the protectors of the water towers and water pumps that sustain the very beings of the people of the low lying areas. A database of details regarding the Doonagiri glacier will be created that may be utilized by future researchers and scholars to further examine this aspect of climate change and its effect on the glaciology of Higher Himalayas.

1.4. Organization of the Report Chapter I covers the introductory and background information including significance of the study and its objectives. Chapter II deals with the state-of-theart review and explores the open questions regarding research topics. At the end of chapter II, a set of hypotheses is developed in order to test whether the 18

formulated objectives have been achieved. Chapter III contains the reviewed literature. Chapter IV is an introduction to the study area. Chapter V describes the research methodology in order to be able to answer the research questions and to test the hypotheses as well as the limitation of the study. Finally, Chapter VI deals with results, conclusions and recommendations of the current research as well as propositions for future research.

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Chapter2: State-of-the-Art Review and Development of Hypotheses 2.1. General Weather and climate have a very important influence on life on the earth. They are part of the daily experience of human beings and are essential for food, health and well-being (IPCC, 2001c, p.87). Weather is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere, characterized by the temperature, precipitation, wind, solar radiation, clouds, air pressure and humidity (IPCC, 2001c, p.87; Oliver and Hidore, 2003, p.7). Climate is defined as average statistics of meteorological conditions (Graedel and Crutzen, 1993, p.5). It refers to the average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period used as modern measures of climate is 30 Years (IPCC, 2001c, p.788). Climate on the earth varies in space and time because of natural as well as anthropogenic forcing factors (IPCC, 2001c, p.89). Any change in the forcing factors and their interactions may result in climate variations leading to possible impacts on life on the earth. This chapter aims to briefly summarize the information on the state-of- the-art review on climate change and its impacts on the world and on Doonagiri Glacier and its immediate inhabitants. Based on the available information, the knowledge gaps in this field are pointed out. At the end of this chapter, some working hypotheses for the current study have also been developed.

2.2. Climate Change –Global Context The climate system consists of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface and the biosphere (IPCC, 2001c, p.88). The atmosphere is the most unstable and rapidly changing part of the system. Climate has changed considerably throughout the history of the earth due to change in its forcing components, whether natural or anthropogenic. But the rate of global climate change during the 20th century was greater than before (IPCC, 2001a, p.45). For example, average global temperature increased by approximately 0.6±0.20C during the 20th century, which was greater than in any other century in the last 1,000 years (IPCC, 2001a, p.45). The warming rate

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became even more pronounced during the second half of the last century, which was predominantly due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001a, p. 51; Graedel and Crutzen, 1993, p. 5) Propelled by some incontrovertible evidence/ data produced by IPCC reports, it is now generally agreed that the climate system has been warming since about 1750 (post industrialization era), primarily due to increase in the concentration of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (379 ppm) and CH4 (1774 ppb) in 2005 far exceed the natural range over the last 6, 50,000 years. The increase in GHG concentrations over the pre-industrial time is very likely attributed to anthropogenic activities i.e. burning of fossil fuels, land use changes and agricultural activity. There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming (IPCC, 2007a, b).

Fig.4: Atmospheric concentration of important long-lived green house gases over the last 2000 years (Adapted from IPCC, 2007 b)

2.2.1. Global Temperature Change Measured temperature records of the earth have only been available since 1861 (IPCC, 2001c, p.113). The earth’s temperature before the instrumental period has been reconstructed using different indirect tools and methods like tree rings, 21

corals, ice sheets, ice cores, borehole measurements, glaciers, ancient sediments and sea level changes etc (IPCC, 2001c,p.130; Oliver and Hidore, 2003, p.261). The long term temperature record derived from paleoclimatic record shows clear evidence of fluctuations in temperature resulting in glaciation and deglaciation periods in the history of the earth since its formation some 4 billion years ago (WMO, 1991, p.72; Graedel and Crutzen, 1993, p.209). Reconstructed temperature records of the Earth during its entire history of development showed that there was a cooling trend up to 150,000 years before the present (yr BP) and a rapid warming trend thereafter till 120,000 yr BP (Graedel and Crutzen, 1993, p.209; Oliver and Hidore, 2003, p.267). Again, there was a cooling trend from 120,000 yr BP to 18,000 yr BP. The period from 18,000 to 5,500 yr BP corresponds to the deglaciation of the earth, i.e. a warming period (Oliver and Hidore, 2003, p. 275). The warming peaked about 5,500 yr BP when the mean atmospheric temperature of mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere was about 2.5°C above that of the present (ibid, p.276). Then, there was a cooling trend up to some 2500 yr BP and again warming after that (WMO, 1991, p.73). The warming trend continued up to about 1200 AD, when the average temperature was higher than today (Oliver and Hidore, 2003, p. 276). Then, there was a cooling trend up to about 1800 AD. During the time from 1450 AD to 1880 AD, this is also known as the Little Ice Age, glaciers enlarged to their maximum extent in the present era, “very cold winters led to the freezing of rivers and lakes that are seldom deeply frozen today, the ice was so thick that ice fairs were held on the frozen water” (ibid, p. 277). The observed temperature record from 1861 to 2000 shows that the earth’s temperature is increasing (see Figure 5) and most of the warming occurred during the second half of the twentieth century (IPCC, 2001a, p.152). The equivalent linear rate of global temperature trend for the period of 1861 to 2000 was

0.044°C/decade,

but

that for

the

period

of

1901

to

2000

was

0.058°C/decade (ibid, p.115). The warming rate over the period 1976-2000 was nearly twice that of the years 1910-1945.

22

Fig.5: Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature (after IPCC, 2001a, p.153)

The 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 was the warmest year in the instrumental record since 1861 (IPCC, 2001a, p.152). Available daily maximum and minimum temperature data indicate that the minimum temperature has increased at nearly twice the rate of maximum temperature since 1950s (IPCC, 2001c, p.106). The linear trend of increase in global average near-surface air temperature has risen to 0.74°C /100years for the period (1906-2005) as compared to the corresponding trend of 0.6°C/100 years for the period (1901-2000). The temperature increase has been particularly sharp in the last fifty years with an added acceleration during the last three decades and signs of a climate shift around 1978 (Fig.6).

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Fig.6: Global mean temperature trends (Adopted from IPCC, 2007b)

Further increase in temperature @ 0.2°C per decade is projected for the next two decades for a range of emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios, IPCC). Even if GHG and aerosol concentrations were to remain constant at the year 2000 levels, a further warming ~ @ 0.1°C per decade is expected, as the energy content in the environment grows. The decade of mid-nineties (19952005) has been the warmest since 1850. Based on observational records and climate model simulations, major changes in the extent of snow cover and other components of the hydrological system like rainfall patterns, intensity and extremes, widespread melting of snow, changes in soil moisture and run-off are projected. Over the 20th century, precipitation has mostly increased over land in high northern latitudes, while decreases have dominated from 10°S to 30°N since 1970s. Extreme events have become more common (Bates et al., 2008). The Northern Hemisphere which contains nearly 98% of the seasonal snow cover is witnessing a long-term decreasing trend (Armstrong and Brodzik, 2001; IPCC, 2007c). The snow cover decline has been particularly sharp over Eurasia since 1979, including over southwest Asia and over the Himalaya-Tibet Plateau region (~ 4% from 1997-2003) (Goes et al., 2005). There have been significant decreases in water storage in mountain glaciers and 24

this phenomenon is likely to get accentuated in the course of the century (IPCC, 2007d). Shifts in the seasonal river flows, in time and quantity are likely to adversely affect the water availability in dry and warm periods (Bates et al., 2008; Barnett et al., 2005). It is now accepted that the rate of temperature rise increases with elevation (Beniston et al., 1997; Liu and Chen, 2000), making mountain ranges and raised plateaus especially vulnerable to effects of global warming. In fact, mountains and raised plateaus have shown two to three times of the average rise in temperatures.

2.2.2. Change in Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture Temperature change causes alteration in relative humidity, vapor pressure and evaporation from land and water bodies and this relation is largely nonlinear (FAO, 1998, p.40). Increasing temperatures generally result in an increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere that leads to change in precipitation pattern and increase in atmospheric moisture (IPCC, 2001b, p.198). Warmer temperatures could lead to more active hydrological cycle and changes in atmospheric circulation (IPCC, 2001c, p.142). Global land precipitation has increased by 2% since the beginning of the 20th century, but largely varied in space and time (ibid). Despite the irregularity in the trends of precipitation in the last century (see Figure 2.3), the annual average precipitation in mid- and high latitudes was increasing while that in tropics and sub-tropics was decreasing (IPCC, 2001c, p.143). Annual average precipitation over the 20th century increased by between 7 to 12% for the zones 30ºN to 85ºN and by about 2% between 0ºS to 55ºS (ibid, p. 142). Similarly, there were significant decreases in rainy days throughout Southeast Asia and the South Pacific and there has been a pattern of continued aridity throughout North Africa since 1961 (ibid, p. 143).

2.3. Climate Change and Himalayas Basic patterns of the climate in the Himalayan region are governed by the summer and winter monsoon systems of Asia (Mani, 1981, p.4). The central and eastern Himalaya receives most precipitation during summer and the western Himalayan region receives most of its precipitation in winter. In the summer, the land mass of Asia gets much hotter than the sea areas to the east and south 25

resulting in the formation of low- pressure area over land and high-pressure area over the north pacific and south Indian oceans. This pressure difference makes the moist air move from the oceanic areas towards the centre of Asia. The moist air moving towards the land areas releases part of its moisture under appropriate conditions as rain over the Indian subcontinent. This is known as summer monsoon rain. In the winter, the land area of Asia gets much colder than the adjoining seas and becomes the high-pressure area. Therefore, the air moves from land to sea in the winter (see Critchfield, 2002, p.169). The Himalayan regions show a wide variety of climates. For every 1000 m of altitude, there is generally about a 6°C temperature drop (Mani, 1981, p.5). However, the temperature may vary from place to place. An east-facing slope has warm mornings and cool afternoons while a west-facing slope the opposite. The Himalaya itself acts as a climatic divide between the Indian subcontinent to the south and the central Asian highland to the north. A substantial part of the summer monsoon rain occurs largely because of the orographic influence of the Himalaya on the monsoon winds (ibid, p.8). The snow and ice over the Himalaya play an important role on the radiation balance of the region and on the strength of Indian monsoon (Meehl, 1994, p.1033; Khandekar, 1991, p.637). It is very difficult to identify an accurate change in the Himalayan climate because of its large size, inaccessibility and unavailability of systematic climatological data (Chalise, 1994, p.383). The data on actual measurements of the changes in microclimate in most of the areas of the Himalaya remain empty and the limited climate observations are available only at the hill-stations in the foot-hills that have to be used to build up a broader picture of the climatology of the Himalaya (Mani, 1981, p.14) Glaciers in the Himalayas are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow inputs and melt output. As temperature warms, glaciers retreat, unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt; the converse is also true. Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcing. Variability in temperature, precipitation, and en-glacial and sub-glacial hydrology can strongly determine the evolution of a glacier in a particular 26

season. Therefore, one must average over a decadal or longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to smooth out the local short-term variability and obtain a glacier history that is related to climate. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2, and preliminary estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present. The

most

significant

climate

late Pliocene (approximately

3

processes

million

years

since

the

ago)

are

middle the

to

glacial

and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years. Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate.

2.4. Aerosol Loading: An important but ill-understood factor is the contribution of black carbon and other aerosols to the temperature rise in the Himalaya-Tibet region and their contribution to glacier melting (Menon et al., 2010, Gautam et al., 2009). The above discussed temperature trends are partly attributable to the forcing by the Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABC), which are layers of air pollution containing aerosols such as black carbon, organic carbon and dust (Ramanathan et al., 2005). The black carbon and other species in the haze are world- wide phenomena, but more intensely observed in south and East Asia during premonsoon months. The black carbon and other species in the haze reduce the average radiative heating of the ocean by as much as 10% and enhance the atmospheric solar radiative heating by 50 to 100% (Ramanathan et al., 2002). These perturbations in the radiative budget significantly impact the rainfall and temperature distribution in the region. The temperature trend attributable to

27

black carbon is comparable to that of GHG and sulphate aerosols. According to Ramanathan et al., (2007) the melting of the Himalayan glaciers is related to BC aerosols and GHGs of 0.25K per decade, from 1950-present, of which BC associated heating is 0.12K per decade. There are reports of both increasing and decreasing temperature anomalies ascribed to aerosol loading. This is an area of very active field-cum modelling research and is particularly relevant to our region. The Indo-Gangetic plains have high levels of pre-monsoon pollution and dust loading which peak in May (Singh et al., 2004). During the pre-monsoon inflow, dust aerosols are transported from the north-western deserts into the Ganga plains and get concentrated there because of the barrier posed by the Himalayan range. Due to heavy convection and large scale topographic variations, the aerosols are transported and vertically advected to high altitudes, up to 8 Km, and possibly play an important role in the observed enhancement of the glacier melt in the Indo-Tibet region. The measurements and modelling of these constituents must become an important component of glacier studies in India (MoEF, 2011). An aerosol/ dust cover of 400gm/m2 – a thickness of about 2mm - has the maximum effect as far as melting of glaciers is concerned. This impact is maximum on north facing glaciers in the month of September. Additional thickness of dust up to 4mm does not make any appreciable change in melting. In fact thickness of dust beyond 6mm serves more as an insulator rather than a conductor of solar heat.

2.5. Physical Impacts of Climate Change 2.5.1 Impacts on Water Resources and Hydrology- a Global Perspective Water is fundamental to human life and many other social, economic and industrial activities. It is required for agriculture, industry, ecosystems, energy, transportation, recreation and waste disposal (Frederick and Gleick, 1999, p.1). Therefore, any changes in hydrological system and water resources could have a direct effect on the society, environment and economy. There are very complex relations between climate, hydrology and water resources. Climatic processes influence the hydrologic processes, vegetation, soils and water demands (Kaczmarek et al., 1996, p.5). Water resources are influenced by various social, technical, environmental and economic factors. Climate change 28

is just one of many pressures that hydrological systems and water resources are facing (IPCC, 2001b, p.195). Water on the earth exists in a space called hydrosphere at the crust of the earth, which extends about 15 km up into the atmosphere and about 1 km down into the lithosphere. The process of water circulation in the hydrosphere through different paths and states is called hydrological cycle (Chow et al., 1988, p.2). The hydrological process has no end or beginning and its processes occur continuously. Water evaporates from the land surface and water bodies into the atmosphere; is transported and lifted in the atmosphere until it condenses and precipitates back on the land or water bodies (Dixit, 2002, p.6). Precipitated water may be intercepted by vegetation, may flow through the surface or subsurface, may return to the atmosphere through evaporation and/or may flow to the sea. The cycle begins again and the water remains in continuous movement because of solar energy (Chow et al., 1988, p.2). Therefore, any changes in the climatic system or the energy balance in the atmosphere may alter the water balance of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation is the main driver of variability in the water balance over space and time. Change in precipitation could have very important implications for hydrology and water resources (IPCC, 2001b, p.197). Floods and droughts primarily occur as a result of too much or too little of precipitation. Various empirical and model studies suggest that the trends in precipitation vary in space and time over the globe, with a general increase in mid- and high latitudes in the northern hemisphere and a general decrease in the tropics and subtropics in both hemispheres. Increasing temperatures mean decreasing proportions of precipitation as snowfall. Snow may cease to occur in areas where snowfall currently is marginal. This would have substantial implications for hydrological regimes (ibid). Warmer temperature increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere (Cline, 1992, p.21, IPCC, 2001b, p.198); which generally results in an increased potential evaporation, i.e. evaporative demands. However, the actual rate of evaporation is constrained by water availability. The amount of water stored in the soil influences directly the rate of actual evaporation, ground water recharge and generation of runoff (IPCC, 2001b, p.199). A reduction in soil moisture could

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lead to a reduction in the rate of actual evaporation from a catchment despite an increase in evaporative demands that creates moisture deficit in the soil as well as in the atmosphere (Cohen et al., 1996, p.42). The local effects of climate change on soil moisture will vary not only with the degree of climate change but also with soil characteristics. The lower the water holding capacity of the soil, the greater is the sensitivity to climate change (IPCC, 2001b, p.199). Changes in precipitation and evaporation have a direct effect on the ground water recharge. More intense precipitation and longer drought periods, which are considered to be expected impacts of climate changes for most of the land areas of the world (IPCC, 2001a, p.246), could cause reduced ground water recharge. Ground water is the major source of water across much of the world. Less ground water recharge means reduction in water availability in these areas (IPCC, 2001b, p.199). Changes in river flows from year to year have been found to be much more strongly related to precipitation changes than to temperature changes (IPCC, 2001b, p.200). The patterns of changes in river flow are broadly similar to the change in annual precipitation, i.e. increases in high latitudes and many equatorial regions, but decreases in mid-latitudes and some subtropical regions (ibid, p. 203). Generally, increase in evaporation means that some areas may experience reduction in runoff despite some increases in precipitation. The real impacts of climate changes vary with catchment characteristics. For example, the streams with smaller catchments are generally more sensitive to these changes (IPCC, 2001b, p.203). Under climate change, many river systems show changes in the timing and magnitude of seasonal peak and low flows. For example, peaks tend to occur earlier due to earlier snowmelt in cold climate zones (Cohen et al., 1996, p.30). Although there is widespread consensus that climate changes cause substantial impacts on hydrology and water resources, the magnitude and direction of these impacts vary in space and time (ibid, p.42). Over 97% of the world’s water is contained in the oceans. It is salty and not suitable for drinking (Singh and Singh, 2001, p.5). Out of the available fresh water on the earth, about 77% is stored as glaciers and ice caps (ibid, p.9), which are very sensitive to climate change. The warmer temperatures would cause

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widespread melting of glaciers and many small glaciers may disappear (IPCC, 2001b, p.193). Many rivers maintaining flows through the summer season are supported by glaciers. Snow and glaciers supply at least one-third of the water used for irrigation in the world (Singh and Singh, 2001, p.20). Higher temperatures will increase the ratio of rain to snow; accelerate the rate of snow- and glaciermelt; and shorten the overall snowfall season (Frederick and Gleick, 1999, p.9). Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the temperatures have been generally increasing (Oliver and Hidore, 2003, p. 277) and the majority of the world’s glaciers are retreating (IPCC 2001b, p.208). Orlemans and Hoogendorn (1989, p.399) have reported that 1 K temperature change leads to a change of equilibrium-line altitude (i.e. the altitude where the accumulation of a glacier equals to its ablation) of 130 m in the Alps. Increasing temperature shifts the permanent snowline upward. This could cause a significant reduction of water storage in the mountains, which is likely to pose serious problems of water availability to many people living in the hills and downstream (Kulkarni et al., 2004, p.185).

2.5.2. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources – the Himalayan Perspective 2.5.2.1 Snow and Glacier Changes in the snowfall pattern have been observed in the Himalayas in the past decades (IPCC, 2001b, p.553). Almost 67% of the glaciers in the Himalayas have retreated in the past decade (IPCC, 2001b, p.553). The Gangotri glacier in the western Himalayas has been retreating by about 30 m yr-1 (ibid, p.554). The Pindari glacier in Uttar Pradesh of India retreated by 2,840 m during 1845-1966 with an average retreat rate of 135.2 m yr-1 (Shrestha, 2005, p.77). Snow and glacier melt forms an important part of annual runoff of many Himalayan rivers. For example, the snow and glacier contribution into annual flows of major rivers in the eastern Himalayas is about 10% but more than 60% in the western Himalayas (IPCC, 2001b, p.565). Stream flow in most of the Himalayan Rivers is minimal in winter and early springs because flows decrease rapidly after the monsoon rains (Kattelmann, 1993, p.103). Dry season runoff of these rivers is largely comprised of snow and glacier melts, which is the main source of water for irrigation, hydroelectric power and drinking water supply for the population

31

downstream (Singh and Singh, 2001, p.21). Increasing temperature would lead to reduction in snow and glacier volume and thereby reduction in water availability in the Himalayas. In addition, reduction in Himalayan snow cover would lead to heavier monsoon in the Indian sub-continent (Khandekar, 1991, p.644; Meehl, 1994, p.1047) that would increase the likelihood of floods. All of the observed glaciers in the Himalayas have been retreating during recent decades (Ageta et al., 2001, p.45) at a higher rate than any other mountain glaciers in the world (Nakawo et al., 1997, p.54). Increasing temperatures reduce the proportion of snow to rain that causes the reduction in the glacier accumulation and a decrease in the surface albedo, which result in an increased glacier ablation (Ageta et al., 2001, p.45). Therefore, reduced snowfall simultaneously decreases accumulation and increases ablation, which ultimately results in accelerated glacier retreat. Melting of snow and glacier amplifies the warming effect by providing additional feedback (Meehl, 1994, p.1034) that may result in a rapid retreat of glaciers, creation of many new glacier lakes and expansion of existing glacier lakes. Glacier lakes are developed in the space once occupied by their mother glaciers and are generally supported by loose moraine dams (Mool et al., 2001a, p.121). Many glacier lakes have been formed during the second half of the last century in the Himalayas (Yamada, 1998, p.1). The supporting moraine dam can collapse due to the increased hydrostatic pressure of greater water depths in the glacier lakes. This may cause an immediate release of a large volume of the lake water and a devastating flood known as glacier lake outburst flood (Yamada, 1998, p.1; IPCC, 1998, p.400).

2.5.2.2 River Discharge The Himalayan Rivers are expected to be very vulnerable to climate change because snow and glacier melt water make a substantial contribution to their runoff (Singh, 1998, p.105). However, the degree of sensitivity may vary among the river systems. The magnitudes of snowmelt floods are determined by the volume of snow, the rate at which the snow melts and the amount of rain that falls during the melt period (IPCC, 1996b, p.337). Because the peak melting season in the Himalayas coincides with the summer monsoon season, any intensification of monsoon or accelerated melting would contribute to increased

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summer, runoff that ultimately would result in increased flood disasters (IPCC, 2001b, p.565). The increase in temperature would shift the snowline upward, which reduces the capacity of natural reservoir. This situation would increase the risk of flood in the Himalayan region (ibid). The annual runoff of the Alkananda River in the western Himalayas increased by 2.8% yr-1 for 1980-2000, whereas that of Kali Gandaki River in Nepal Himalayas increased by about 1% annually for 1964-2000 (Shrestha, 2005, p.75). A runoff sensitivity analysis by Mirza and Dixit (1997, p.78) showed that a 2ºC rise in temperature would cause a 4% decrease in runoff, while a 5ºC rise in temperature and 10% decrease in precipitation would cause a 41% decrease in the runoff of the Ganges River near New Delhi. Glacier retreat has immediate implications for downstream flows in the Himalayan Rivers. In rivers fed by glaciers, the runoff first increases as more water is released by melting due to warming. As the snow and glacier volume gets smaller and the volume of melt water reduces, dry season flows will decline to well below present levels (Shrestha, 2005, p.77). About 70% of the dry season flow of the Ganges River is supplied by the catchments in the Nepal Himalayas (IPCC, 1998, p.395), which will be badly affected by the recession of glaciers. River discharge is influenced by climate, land cover and human activities (Sharma et al., 2000a, p157), so it is difficult to disaggregate the climatic impact from non-climatic impacts on river discharge.

2.6. The Socioeconomic Impacts The impacts of climate change on the earth system will not be always gradual and even, rather mostly nonlinear. Substantial lags, thresholds and interactions can be anticipated even if the human-caused forcing functions themselves vary gradually and continuously (Vitousek and Lubchenco, 1995, p.61). The impacts will be the highest for the least developed countries in the tropical and subtropical areas (AfDB et al., 2003, p.5; DFID, 2004, p.1). The countries with fewest resources are likely to bear the greatest burden of climate change in terms of loss of life and relative effect on the economy (AfDB et al., 2003, p.5). Many of the world’s poor are living in geographically vulnerable places under vulnerable environmental, socioeconomic, institutional and political conditions. Climate change provides an additional threat placing additional strains on the 33

livelihoods of the poor (ibid, p.11). Agriculture, which is the only available means of livelihood for many of these poor, is one of sectors most vulnerable to climate change. Increased water demand and decreased water availability as a result of climate change may adversely affect the society and economy. People in the remote regions of the Himalayas have for centuries managed to maintain a delicate balance with the fragile mountain environments. This balance is likely to be disrupted by climate change and it would take a long time for a new equilibrium to be established (IPCC, 1996b, p.204).

2.6.1 Effects on the Water Withdrawals Climate fluctuations affect human behavior, which in turn may alter the water supply demand balance in different regions of the world (Kulshrestha, 1996, p.107). Warmer conditions would most likely increase water withdrawals (Frederick and Gleick, 1999, p.30). A rise in temperature of 1.1ºC by 2025 would lead to an increase in average per capita domestic water demand by 5% in the UK (IPCC, 2001b, p.211). In a warmer climate, dry season water use for crops may be higher because of higher evapotranspiration (Mirza and Dixit, 1997, p.86). Agricultural water demand is considerably more sensitive to climate change (IPCC, 2001b, p.211), which accounts for almost 70% of the total water withdrawal in the world (Kulshrestha, 1996, p.125).

2.6.2 Agriculture and Food Security Climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture in many parts of the world (IPCC, 1998, p.397). Particularly vulnerable are subsistence farmers in the tropics, who make up a large portion of the rural population and who are weakly coupled to markets (IPCC, 2001b, p.270). Agriculture in Tropical Asia is vulnerable to frequent floods, severe droughts, cyclones and storm surges that can damage life and property and severely reduce agricultural production and could threaten food security of many developing countries in Asia (IPCC, 1998, p.397; Pachauri, 1992, p.82; IPCC, 2001b, p.535). Reduced food production may have several adverse impacts for these people, such as loss of income to farmers, loss of nutritional base, increased suffering/illness due to hunger, loss of life due to starvation etc (Hohmeyer, 1997, p.76). Mountain agriculture, practiced close to the margins of viable production, could be highly sensitive to climate change (Carter and Pary, 1994, p.420). Risk levels of climate change often increase

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exponentially with altitude, therefore, small changes in the mean climate can induce large changes in agricultural risks in mountain areas (ibid, p.421). The growing water scarcity due to climate change will pose a serious threat to food security, poverty reduction and protection of the environment (IIASA, 2002, p.9). Sensitivity of food production to climate change is greatest in developing countries due to less advanced technological buffering to droughts and floods (Parry et al., 1998, p.8.2). Domestic production losses in these countries resulting from climate change will further worsen the prevalence and depth of hunger, and this burden will fall disproportionately on the poorest of the poor (IIASA, 2002, p.12). Debt and poor level of infrastructure in these countries will make it difficult to distribute food in food-deficit areas that could create a threat to the lives of many poor people (Hohmeyer and Gärtner, 1992, p.32). A doubling of CO2 could result in about 900 million deaths over a 20-year period in the world by 2030 (ibid). The developing countries, which account for more than four-fifths of the world’s population, share relatively lower level of global CO2 emission but will suffer most from the negative impact of the global CO2 emission (see IIASA, 2002, p.12). Kavi Kumar (2003, p.349) has shown that a 1ºC rise in mean temperature in India would have no significant effects on wheat yields, while a 2ºC increase would decrease wheat yields in most places in India. Similarly, every 1ºC rise in temperature would cause a decline in rice production in the southern Indian state of Kerala by about 6% (ibid). Bhatt and Sharma (2002, p.118) pointed out that each 0.5ºC increase in temperature would reduce wheat productivity in north-west India by about 10%. Likewise, with a temperature change of +2ºC and accompanying precipitation changes by +15%, the fall in farm-level total netrevenue in India would be nearly 25% (ibid, p.119). Food security is “a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for active and healthy life” (FAO, 2001, p.49). In other words, food security consists of availability of food, access to food and absorption of food (Swaminathan, 2002, p.198). Foodavailability is a function of production; and food-access depends mainly on purchasing power (Ziervogel et al., 2006, p.4). Similarly, food-absorption depends

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upon access to safe drinking water and environmental hygiene (FAO, 2001, 32), which might be deteriorated by climate change. 2.7. Climate change in Doonagiri, Uttarakhand Doonagiri village lies at the snout of the Doonagiri Glacier. Fafar (kuttu), Potato, Jai (Ooa), Faran (Jimbua), Chipi are the chief crops that are grown by the villagers to sustain their livelihood. Also some herbs such as kutki (Picrorrhiza), Choru, Chipi, Keeda jadi (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) are also grown within this region. According to the villagers, during the interview session the production of the chief crops that generally includes potato, kuttu, faran and chipi are increased to the great extent than before because of the reduced rainfall in the village. As observed by the villagers, earlier the rainfall occurs quite frequently and that too so heavy that it usually ends up destroying most of the crops. Though it sounds a boon to the villagers but also it shows the change in climatic patterns within the region. Also less rainfall means change in the precipitation patterns which ultimately affects the health of the glacier and is an indicator of climate change.

Also Brahma Kamal i.e. Saussurea obvallata (sacred and state flower of uttarakhand) which is found at an altitude of around 4500m and above is also disappearing from the area because of non availability of suitable climatic conditions that lead to the growth of the flower. (observation by villagers) Agriculture plays a major role in sustaining the livelihood of the villagers as most of them are subsistence farmers and grow crops for fulfilling their own needs. The villagers move to the doonagiri village only when the temperature is favourable for growing crops i.e. in May-June and come back later in October back to the base camp as winter (snowfall) starts. But due to climatic shifts in the weather the time period which earlier was favourable for growing crops has also been shifted by 1 month. It has also been observed in 30 years that the length of the Doonagiri glacier has been receded to nearly 1 km, as observed by the villagers and the reason being the temperature rise within the particular area that has accelerated the melting of glacier to a greater extent. Also due to the climate change the onset of winters has also been shifted from October to November.

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2.8. Open Questions The following open questions were found after analyzing the available information: How are the seasonal temperature and precipitation changes observed in the past climatic records? What are the expected physical impacts of climate change on glacier mass balance, agriculture and availability of water downstream in the Doonagiri area of Uttarakhand? What are the economic and social implications of these changes? How will the poorest of the poor be affected by such changes?

2.9. Development of Hypotheses Based on the analysis of the aforementioned information, the following hypotheses were developed: The temperature in Himalayas is increasing and the rates of warming are higher in the higher elevations. The maximum temperatures in Himalayas are increasing faster than the minimum temperatures. A rise in temperatures will cause an accelerated glacier retreat and a decreased snow to- rain ratio. There is a change in precipitation and the rates of change vary in seasons. The river runoff will be substantially affected by climate change. Climate change will cause significant impacts on agriculture, food security and poverty. The likelihoods of floods and droughts will increase due to climate change.

37

3. Review of Literature Glaciers are one of the most obvious, and seemingly simple, indicators of climate change. However, glaciers themselves are physically complex and spatially diverse. The dramatic statements that glaciers are smaller than they have been for over 200 years since the Little Ice age are not particularly surprising or enlightening. However, the increasing rate of change raises concerns. The data corresponding to particular glaciers in the Himalayas and surrounding mountains are very sparse, limited mostly to terminus location data that do not comprehensively describe overall conditions of the glaciers. Many of the glaciers in the extended Hindu Kush-Himalayan region are retreating, but there is no spatially comprehensive or region wide evidence that the glaciers in the region are retreating faster than glaciers in any other location in the world. Individual glaciers can respond with great variability to a changing climate. Therefore, it is important to involve more regional scale estimates in the analysis of Himalayan glacier mass balance (The Glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, Report by ICIMOD p1). Internationally, glaciers have always attracted a diverse group of scientists as it is the only landform that affects each and every ecosystem en route to the seas in the form of melt water in the river. Thus, if glaciers are threatened, the entire flora and fauna dependant on the river systems originating from the same will also be affected. Glacial studies have been going on for decades on various parameters relevant to the changes in their regime and the number of these studies has only increased recently at the international level (Palsson et al., 2012; Johanssen et al., 2012; Kaab et al., 2012; Berthier et al., 2012; Gardelle et al., 2012; Azam et al., 2012; etc.). In terms of the research on glaciers, the Himalayas have always been given there due importance. Many scientists have studied these magnificent mountains (Bolch et al., 2012; Armstrong et al., 2010; Fischer et al., 2010; Raina et al., 2009; Khadka et al., 2009; etc.). The constraint of accessibility and data availability limited the number of researchers earlier but with the advent of new geospatial technologies it has become possible to map and study these ranges. 38

The first ever study conducted on the Doonagiri Glacier was by the Geological Survey of India (GSI), in the process of their documentation and inventorying project during 1984-92. It was in this period that it was realized that this particular glacier was showing a negative mass balance (Raina et al, 2012). In 2001, a study conducted by Srivastava and Swaroop, concluded that the snout of the Doonagiri glacier was fluctuating on a temporal scale (Srivastava and Swaroop, 2001; Swaroop et al., 2001). Recently, a study documenting the suspended sediment concentration (SSC), suspended sediment load (SSL) and yield was also undertaken for the same glacier by Shrivastava et al (2012). However, in the last decade the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over mountain terrains has become a much talked about issue. In 2006, Anders et al., derived a relationship between the variability in precipitation in the Himalayas and the orographic uplift caused by the undulated topography of the area. It was found that even after removing sampling errors, there were a few pockets in the range of tens of kilometers, where a significant visible change in precipitation could be seen on the decadal scale. Altitude acts as an important factor in determining the type and amount of precipitation (Singh et al., 2003). Upadhyay et al., in 1991, postulated that in peak winters the snow cover increases to about 30-50 times the actual permafrost. In areas where the topographic relief is heavily undulated, the climatological parameters vary over very short distances. The major challenge is to determine whether the observed weather patterns are due to meso-scale variations or due to a large scale climatic anomaly and to develop interpolation and/or extrapolation techniques such that an accurate estimation of spatial patterns in existing topoclimates can be formulated (Alford et al., 1992). One assessment of future glacier melt in the Himalaya recently receiving widespread attention was published in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group (WG) II report (Cruz et al. 2007), “Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at a current rate.” However this statement wasn’t accepted by the IPCC as no evidence was

39

presented .In contrast, 2007 IPCC WG I authors of ‘Changes in Glaciers and Ice Caps’ correctly noted that “the glaciers of High Mountain Asia have generally shrunk at varying rates and that several Karakoram glaciers are reported to have advanced and/or thickened” (Lemke and Ren 2007). Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the HKH region is no exception. A number of noticeable impacts related to climate change have already been documented. For example, the temperature has increased in the Nepalese Himalayas by between 0.15 and 0.6°C per decade (Shrestha et al. 1999), which is two to eight times higher than the global mean warming of 0.74°C over the last 100 years (IPCC 2001a, 2001b). The glaciers in much of the region show signs of shrinking, thinning, and retreating. Among others, this is leading to the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, which could lead to an increase in the number of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) (Ives 1986; Kattelmann 2003; Mool et al. 2001a, 2001b; Richardson and Reynolds 2000; Quincey et al. 2007; Yamada 1998; Zimmermann et al. 1986; Bolch et al. 2008). A number of GLOFs have already been reported in this region (Bajracharya et al. 2007; Mool 1995; Mool et al. 2001a, 2001b; Reynolds 1998; Yamada 2000, 1998; Yamada and Sharma 1993).If the present trends persist, the store of glacier ice will gradually be reduced, which will impact on the availability of water resources (Barnett et al. 2005; IPCC 2007). Climate and glacier changes cannot be generalized across the region, however; and the consequences of any change for glaciological hazards and water resources are complex and thus difficult to predict. The general trend appears to be one of glacial retreat, as in many mountain areas in the world, but observations of individual glaciers indicate that the annual retreat rates vary from basin to basin. In some cases the rate has doubled in recent years compared to the early seventies (Bajracharya et al. 2007). At the same time, increasing ice mass balances and growing glaciers have been reported in the Karakoram mountains in the western part of the region (Hewitt 2005, 2010; Scherler et al. 2011) illustrating the complexity of the situation. It is likely that there are large variations in glacier response to a complex pattern of climatic changes within the Himalayas.

40

In any case, a study relating these scientific facts with the socio economics of the dependant population is unique and hasn’t been carried out yet. Thus, the scope for further studies in this field is immense. These hill folk are highly vulnerable as they have no back up resource base to fall back upon. They are also the protectors of the water towers and water pumps on the country which sustain most of our Indian populations. In view of the above it is imperative to conduct a study examining the relationship between the changes in the meteorological variables and the spatial extent of the glacier with agricultural production and resulting population dynamics of the affected ecosystems. Notwithstanding the importance of the HKH region, there is a lack of data on the snow and glacial resources of these mountains, and especially of the long-term information on glaciers required for a credible scientific assessment. Glacier inventories have been compiled for some parts of the region using different approaches, but there has been no comprehensive coordinated assessment. A long-term consistent glacier database is needed to support assessments of glacier status across the region and understanding of climate change impacts on glaciers, as well as for climate and hydrological monitoring (Report by ICIMOD on Status Of Glaciers in the HKKH Region, 2p)

41

4. Study Area 4.1. Introduction Uttarakhand, formerly Uttaranchal, state of India, located in the north-western part of the country. It is bordered to the northwest by the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, to the northeast by the Tibet Autonomous Region of China, to the southeast by Nepal, to the south and southwest by the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, and to the west by a tiny segment of the Indian state of Haryana. Its capital is the north-western city of Dehra Dun. Doonagiri which is also known as Dronagiri, a north facing glacier, is an important component of the Dhauliganga system of glaciers in Uttarakhand. It is located in Chamoli district of Uttarakhand state of India. The Glacier (30°33’30”N: 79°53’30”E) is approachable by an 18 km long foot/mule track from the head Jumma (30036’00”N: 79048’30”E) via Ruwing (30037’15”N: 79049’45”E) and Dunagiri (30036’00”N: 79052’30”E) villages across Dhauliganga river. Dunagiri is the last village in the valley. There is a good place to camp at the foot of the glacier. The best time to visit the place is between May to October. Jumma is situated 48 kms from Joshimath (30041’00”N: 79050’30”E) on way to Malari. The glacier is covered by toposheet No. 53N/14 of Survey of India. The glacier melt stream, Dunagiri Gad, emanates from the snout of the glacier, 3 kms south east of Dunagiri village, and drains finally into Dhauliganga river, a major tributary of Alaknanda. Dunagiri Gad is an elongated northwest-southeast trending bound by several high peaks- 5069m, 6506m, 6931m, and 5372m. The Purvi Dunagiri peak forms divide between Dunagiri glacier and Bagini glacier, the largest of all the glaciers in the catchment and forms the main feeder to Dunagiri Gad. Garpak Gadhera, a tributary to Dunagiri gad is mainly fed from Lampak and kalla bank glaciers. The overall gradient of Dunagiri melt stream, constituting a part of Dunagiri gad, is 1:4 from Dunagiri glacier upto its confluence with Dhauliganga river (Report on glacier front fluctuation studies in parts of H.P. and U.P. by Geological Survey of India).

42

The glacier extends for 6.5 km with an average width of 500m and occupies an area of 2.56 sq km, between elevations of 5150 m above m.s.l at its head, to 4240 m above m.s.l. at its snout. The ablation and accumulation zones of the glacier are well discernible. (Report on glacier front fluctuation studies in parts of H.P. and U.P. by Geological Survey of India). The glacier is bounded by prominent lateral moraines, left being more prominent than the right. The right lateral moraine starts from around 4810 m.a.s.l. and descends down upto 4200 m.a.s.l. where it merges with terminal moraine ridge. The left lateral moraine starts from 4825 m.a.s.l. and descends upto 3400 m.a.s.l., this moraine forms a part of Dunagiri glacier upto 3800 m.a.s.l. and beyond that, it forms part of the trunk glacier which occupied the valley in the past.(Srivastava and Swaroop, 1998). Historically it is said that when Lakshmana is severely wounded during the battle against Ravana, Hanuman is sent to fetch the Sanjivani, a powerful life-restoring herb, from Dronagiri Mountain, in the Himalayas, to revive him. Upon reaching the Dronagiri parvat he finds himself unable to identify which herb it is, he lifts the entire Dronagiri parvat. The portion which Hanuman dug out of the Himalayas or the dronagiri parvat was actually the right shoulder of dronagiri parvat!! & still the wounds of dronagiri parvat are alive!! It is said that dronagiri parvat is still feeling the pain of losing his right shoulder!! The residents of dronagiri parvat area still worship & pray to dronagiri so that dronagiri parvat's pain could be less. People living in the village where dronagiri is situated feel themselves so lucky that they are residing under the shelter of an auspicious & holy mountain which saved the life of lakshman!!!

43

Fig.7.Map of Study Area

4.2. Topography The topography of the area shows highly rugged and varied terrain. Along with the varying topography the altitude ranges from 2578-5150 m. The topography of the area has also been influenced by avalanches and landslides. Landslides are common features during rainy season. The area surrounding the dunagiri has complex terrain. Most of the area is snow bound.

4.3. Drainage A stream originates from the Dunagiri glacier commonly known as dunagiri gad, ultimately joins the Dhauliganga near the Juma Village. Dhauliganga is one of the principal tributary of Alaknanda river. Alaknanda river is one of the headstreams of the Ganges which is the major river of Northern India and the holy river of Hinduism. 44

4.4. Climate The area typically exhibits temperate and alpine climate. Most of the area falls above subalpine zone which remains snow covered during winter months. Broadly, three season can be recognised for the park area viz. summer (April to June), Rainy (July to September) and winter (October to March). Winter is severe and main precipitation is received in the form of snow. Rains are mostly confined to rainy season.

4.5. Plant and Animal life Most of the forests in this area are temperate forests. Common tree species found in the studied area are as follows: Cedrus deodara Himalayan (blue) pine Rhododendron Poplar Polygonum Betula utilis (Bhojpatra) Maple The area is not rich in animal species and the only known animal is Musk deer. Other animals such as sheeps, cattle, and dogs are being domesticated by the villager who according to the statistics and analysis the number of sheeps has been totally vanished from the area. Also some Yaks have been seen in the area which generally comes from the border area for grazing only.

4.6. Population Composition The population of the villages in this area are migratory and belongs to the Bhotiya community, a scheduled tribe consisting of two subgroups known as Tolcha and Marchha. The language spoken in this region is mostly pahari but some people talk in hindi also.

45

5. Data Base and Research Methodology 5.1. Data Description The data used in the project are summarized as follows: Base Map of the study area (Survey of India Toposheet No. 53N/14). SERVIR Data. LANDSAT VII Data (FCC images) of the study area (2009) GLOB cover map (ICIMOD, HKKH) Image Processing and classification (ERDAS Imagine 9.3) GIS database (ArcGIS 10.1).

5.2. Methodology 5.2.1. Preliminary Preparations a) The methodology utilizes GIS to evaluate the entire region based on certain evaluation criteria for the analysis of the spatial extent of the glacier with respect to variation in precipitation and the socio economics of the dependant population systems. The criteria based on which GIS database is created can be categorized into two groups: 1. Physical information. 1.1 Glacial Geomorphology 1.2 Slope 1.3 Spatial Extent 1.4 Drainage 1.5 Other Landforms 1.6 Distance from snout 1.7 Distance from streams 1.8 Contour map 2. Socio-economic criteria. 2.1 Population dynamics 2.2 Biomass estimation 2.3 Climate history of the area 2.4 Disaster history of the area

46

b) Toposheet No. 53 N/14 obtained from Survey of India was then georeferenced by locating coordinate points in ERDAS 9.1. c) Satellite Imagery required has been sourced from MENRIS, ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal. d) In order to extract maximum information so as to get detailed thematic maps showing drainage, land use pattern etc., the corresponding geo-referenced map was then exported to SERVIR (satellite) imagery and with the help of the district boundary (Chamoli), the area required for the study was extracted.

5.2.2. Digitization The resultant map information was then digitized for getting hold of separate features contained in the map in order to prepare separate thematic maps and the digitization is done in Arc GIS 10.1.

5.2.3. Adding Attribute Data: Non spatial Data such as vegetation type, settlement, glacier landforms, and drainage were added accordingly using the corresponding toposheet. In order to obtain the maximum accuracy in mapping, ground validation of all the visual interpretation patterns will be done. GPS points were taken for snout position, location of residential area, stream locations, agricultural fields etc. and this attribute data will also be incorporated in the map.

5.2.4 Classification: After the digitization got over, classification was done in order to extract land use/land cover pattern of the proposed study area. The classification was done on Arc GIS 10.1. so as to gain maximum information about the land use of the Dunagiri region. The classified land use pattern was then categorized into different field attributes i.e. Snow, Exposed rocks with slope grasses, Alpine pastures with grasses, Dense forest, Open forest, Settlement, River, River sand and Scrubs. The Land use map of Dunagiri is shown as follows:

47

Fig.8: Land Use/Land cover Map of Dunagiri

5.2.5. Socio economic surveys: The survey questionnaire was developed using a survey tool called “CRiSTAL (Community based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods)” developed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). The chief questions that this survey should answer are: 1. What are changes in dates of the advent of monsoons from year to year? 2. What are the changes in the crop cycles in the last decade? 3. How far has the snout position retreated or advanced or stable? 4. How has the above affected the lives and livelihood of the inhabitants?

48

5. What are the months during which the village migration occurs? 6. What strategies are utilized by the villagers to dispose off the waste generated during the residence period in the dunagiri village? 7. How much the livelihood of the villagers is dependent on the resource (Forest) available in the vicinity of the area? The mode of questioning was group discussions and personal interviews depending upon the age groups. 5.2.6. Review of all published and unpublished data regarding the area/topic of interest will be collected from all sources, internet, journals, and books. PRELIMINARY INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE DATA

RECONNAISSANC E VISIT FOR GROUND TRUTH COLLECTION DELINEATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES OF

CHECKING OF INTERPRETATION & VALIDATION OF INTERPRETATION

FINALISATION OF INTERPRETATION BASE MAP PREPARATION USING

TRANSFER OF THEMATIC DETAILS FAIR DRAWING OF FINAL MAPS

AREA CALCULATION USING GIS

Fig.9. Steps in geomorphological mapping through visual interpretation of satellite images. 49

6. Results, Conclusion & Recommendations The proposed project was basically much more towards the social impacts of Climate change and to study the regional changes that can be one of the causes of warming within the region which is ultimately hampering the health of Dunagiri Glacier. As per the GIS database is concerned the available data was not sufficient to create accurate scientific evidence whether or not the Glacier is receding, advancing or stable. The data and knowledge at present available for the proposed region are grossly inadequate for developing either a regional or global understanding of climate change processes. It is essential to have an improved understanding of the biophysical processes taking place in the region to provide the basis for informed decision making, risk and vulnerability mapping, adaptation and mitigation strategies, and effective biodiversity conservation and management. The following are some of the data gaps that were the major limitations during the project: 1. Meteorology: The time series data for surface temperatures currently available for the region do not provide a satisfactory sampling of the entire region, and there is almost complete lack of reliable ground-truthed, time series, surface temperature data for high-altitude and remote areas as in case of Dunagiri glacier. Measurements of precipitation are even scarcer than temperature data. More observational data sets are needed for the region (daily, monthly and seasonal). Observational data on a finer scale will be needed to test and refine models and to capture baselines. 2. Cryosphere: The extent to which glacial mass and seasonal snow cover have diminished in the area over the past few decades remains extremely uncertain as a result of the lack of substantial time series data for the region. There is a lack of observational data on ice stores, the extent to which snow and glacial melt contribute to stream-flow composition in high-altitude catchments, the spatial variation in glacial and snowmelt, measurements of snow-depth, and estimation of snow to water equivalence. 3. Atmospheric pollutants: Long term anthropogenic climate forcing as a result of increased production of aerosols and GHGs is underway in the whole HKH region. 50

The data collected to date have been sufficient to generate awareness of the ‘atmospheric brown cloud’, but much more systematic, observational data are needed for the extensive modelling required to predict accurately the extent to which this mass of pollutant gases and particulates ( mostly O3 and black carbon) are contributing to a changing climate in the HKH region globally. Similarly, reliable information on GHG emissions and sinks are at present very limited and mostly not available for the HKH region including the proposed region. 4. Socioeconomic data required: More socioeconomic data is available than the biophysical data for the region. Much of the data however aggregated at a level that precludes their use in the study of mountain-specific change. There is a pressing need for data that are disaggregated geographically and in other ways related to impact; for example, by gender, economic groups, and so on from the region; that can be used to develop a baseline overview of the mountain situation, to investigate climate-related changes and impacts, and as a base for predicting possible future scenarios. Population growth and migration. The Dunagiri region is at present experiencing a hitherto unprecedented movement of its population. People in large numbers are migrating either to the base camps within the same district or migrating to urban areas for better opportunities and good lifestyle leaving behind rural one. There is a growing recognition that such vast migrations and resettlements of people

need

to

be

documented

and

understood

since

they

have

consequences for the environment, land use, energy requirements, water supply, air quality, and so on. Many regional experts now question whether the changes that accompany migration can have consequences that far outweigh those commonly attributed to the growing concentrations of GHGs. Disaggregated data are needed to help sort how each is contributing to climate change.

The socioeconomic profile of the region has been studied by personal interviews with the villagers. The villagers shift to the base camp during the time period i.e. from October to May because of the heavy snowfall within the region and correspondingly that cause inaccessibility within the region. The base camp is situated in three villages i.e. Pursari, Maithana, Ghat of Chamoli district. It has

51

been observed during the interview session that most of the population of dunagiri village is of the age above 40 years as most of the younger generation has been shifted to the city area for either higher studies or for jobs. According to the survey questionnaire asked to the villagers about the dunagiri glacier and past climatic patterns, the results have been summarised as follows: 1. The villagers generally go to the Dunagiri village during May till October. The purpose of visiting the region at this time is mainly agriculture. During their stay at the village they grow potato, Fafar (kuttu), Faran (Jimbua), Jai (Ooa) and Chipi. Also the villagers go to the forest area in search of an herb i.e. KEEDA JADI (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) which costs around more than two lakh per kg. The herb is used as an aphrodisiac, also to treat a variety of ailments such as fatigue and cancer and to cure impotency. The observed fact regarding climate change by the villagers was slightly ironical as according to the villagers in the past few years the rainfall has been reduced to a greater extent which they feel is a boon to their agricultural practices because earlier rainfall was so heavy that it usually ends up destroying most of the crops. Also less rainfall means change in the precipitation patterns which ultimately affects the health of the glacier and is an indicator of climate change. 2. Also Brahma Kamal i.e. Saussurea obvallata (sacred and state flower of uttarakhand) which is found at an altitude of around 4500m and above is also disappearing from the area because of non availability of suitable climatic conditions that lead to the growth of the flower. 3. The temperature has been increased drastically in the past years and also the monsoon has been shifted to entirely by 1 month.

52

41 45 40 35 30 25

warming

20

no change

15 4

10 5 0 Temperature

Fig.10 Column showing temperature change. Fig.10:

4. It has also been observed in past years that the length of the Doonagiri glacier has been receded to nearly 1 km, as observed by the villagers and the reason being the temperature rise within the particular area that has accelerated the melting of glacier to a greater extent. Also due to the climate change the onset of winters has also been shifted from October O to November.

53

17 18 16 14 12 10

moving back

8

no change

5

6 4 2 0 snout position

Fig.11:: Showing change in snout position of Dunagiri Glacier as observed by the villagers.

5. According to the villagers some noticing changes has also been seen in the growth of vegetables, fruits and some cereals. For example earlier the size of cabbage was small but now it is up to 15-20 15 20 kg big , size of potato has also been increased, the temperature rature is now tending to favourable for the growth of apple, pear and rajma. Although the apple plant grown in the area is bonsai (shorter) but yes it has started showing hope of growth. This all indicates a clear evidence of climate change as compared to the past climatic patterns. 6. The villagers often go to nearby forest area for the collection of fuel wood and fodder in Dunagiri region. Though the collected fuel wood and fodder does not significantly indicate over exploitation of resource. The following chart shows the consumption of fuel wood and fodder within the dunagiri region:

54

25

Number of villagers

20

15

Fuel wood consumption (kg/day)

10

5

0 5

10

15

Fig. Fig.12: Chart showing Fuel wood consumption

12

Number of villagers

10 8 Fodder consumption (kg/day)

6 4 2 0 3

5

8

Fig. Fig.13: Chart showing Fodder consumption

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7. Glaciers are the significant indicators of climate change and this change can be global or regional. In order to justify this statement the carrying capacity has been analyzed for the region with specific reference to waste characterization. It has been observed that most of the villagers is living with complete harmony with the surroundings and as far as waste is concerned the local dumping site of the village was examined and it has been found that most of the waste was biodegradable i.e. paper, cloth bags. Some plastics were also found in the waste but that quantity is not enough alone to cause climate change within the area. During interview it has been asked to the villagers that what type of carrying bag they use while going to the village, most of them answered that they always use cloth bags made at home to carry the materials to the village as plastic bags can be torn any time while trekking so cloth bags are the best. The common method of waste disposal is dumping in open ground and then burning the whole waste. The vegetable waste produced is used in the agricultural field along with the manure. Some pictures showing waste dumped within Dunagiri region are as follows:

56

57

Conclusions Glaciers can be thought of as long-term reservoirs, storing water in one place over many decades – unlike rain, or even seasonal snow melt, that typically reach the stream flow within days to months. This glacier storage acts like a large volume water tank on the mountain side with new water coming in the top throughout much of the year, and some of the older water running out the bottom during the melt season. The annual balance question involves whether more water runs out from the bottom during melt than arrives at the top during a given year – and of course it is the long term that is ultimately more important than the annual or short term – that is, the climate versus the weather.

The analysis of data clearly revealed that the temperature within the region has been changing as years are passing and the maximum temperature has been raising more as compared to the minimum temperature. Though the results are mostly based on the villager’s observation in the past decades. Also by compiling all the data together, it can be said that the Dunagiri Glacier is

58

receding though scientific evidence is required to prove the statement. As per the climate change is concerned it can be said that it is due to global change and not the regional change as the villagers are very much in harmony with their surroundings and nobody wants to spoil their home and dunagiri village is still home to many people despite of the fact that the village is highly inaccessible and very tough terrain lead its way. For the populations relying on the water resources provided by the Himalayan drainages, primary measures

should

involve

well-planned management,

conservation, and efficient use of the water that is currently available to them. The potential for rapidly increasing consumption or mismanagement of existing water resources should perhaps be of much greater concern than the relatively small changes that may occur in either the climate or hydrology in the coming decades. Finally, although glaciers across the Himalayan region may not be disappearing at as rapid a rate as had been previously thought, the need remains for mitigation and adaptation to the response of these glacier systems to climate change, as well as for the continued development of accurate estimates of the potential impact of melting glaciers on downstream water resources.

Making the information available The data generated in this study including the attribute information is being made publically available and can be used by decision makers, scientists, and governments in different fields of application. The data are provided through a web portal accessible at mountain geoportal that allows easy access, spatial sub-setting, and online analysis. It is hoped that this open approach and the use of a transparent methodology will help in avoiding future misunderstandings related to the Hindu Kush-Himalayan glaciers. In this case, it will be important to develop appropriate ways to share the snow data. The planned cryosphere web portal should include dynamic spatial analysis tools and extraction based on area of interest to facilitate area and user-specific analyses. Issuing of a regular snow bulletin for the region is also being considered.

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Recommendations The following recommendations are made to ensure that the work on snow cover estimation in the HKH region continues in the way needed to provide the critical results necessary for input into long term models of climate change, as well as short term mapping and modeling to predict future changes. 1. The present work in generating MODIS snow cover products should be continued and put into operation as an automated system. 2. Historical snow cover data such as AVHRR should be accessed and processed for the HKH region to go back in time and generate snow cover data over a longer temporal framework. 3. A dynamic online system should be developed as an enterprise environment in the form of a single gateway to ensure wider dissemination of products. 4. Information about snow cover should be compiled and disseminated in the form of a regular bulletin.

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Annexure A Survey Questionnaire Socio-Economic and Demographic Profile Name of the Respondent: Address: 1. Sex: years)

1.Male

3. Religion

2.Female

2. Age (in completed

4. Cast

5. Do you have a transport? 1. Car

2. Jeep

3.Tractor

4. Bullock cart

6. Education of the respondent:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

7.Occupation of Respondent:

Illiterate Literate but no formal education School upto 5 years (Class V) School upto 6-9years (Class 6-9) School upto class X Under Graduate Post Graduate Professional (Doctor, Engg, LLB, MBA) Technical (IT/Diploma) Others (specify)

1. Farmer 2. Wage labourer 3. Skilled worker 4. Petty trader (shopkeeper) 5. Self employed 6. Service- Government 7. Service- Private 8. Homemaker 9. Student 10. Retired 11. Unemployed 12. Others

8. Type of house use? 1. 2. 3. 4.

5. None

9. What type of cooking fuel do you

Pucca Semi Pucca Hut Kutcha

1. LPG/Gas 2. Kerosene 3. Firewood 4. Gobar gas/Biofuels 5. Others (specify)

61

10. Name five most pressing problems faced by your community?

Area

Issue

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

11. History of Dunagiri glacier as per the observation of villagers? 1. Receding 2. Advancing 3. Stable

12. Disaster specific history of the family Natural/Man made

Year of event

Type of Event

Human Death/Injured

Livestock Loss

Assets damaged

13. How much resource consumption in terms of fuel and fodder? (Per day) Fuel (kg/day)

Fodder (kg/day)

14. What is the method of waste disposal employed by the villagers in the during their stay in the village? 1. 2. 3. 4.

Open burning Composting Collection of waste in the pit Open Dumping

Survey by:

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