Apr 13, 2018 - Preliminary Results â Erosion Risk. ⢠43 WHS at risk (88 %). ⢠Highest risk: Tyre, Lebanon. ⢠Italy (11), Croatia (7), Greece (4), Tunisia (4). 04/13/ ...
Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise Lena Reimann¹, Athanasios T. Vafeidis¹, Sally Brown², Jochen Hinkel³ and Richard S. J. Tol4 ¹ Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Germany ² Faculty of Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, UK ³ Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany 4 Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, UK
Starting Point Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) assessments:
How will vulnerability to the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) change in the 21st century?
? • UNESCO World Heritage Sites (WHS) as important vulnerability indicator – high intangible value – may lose Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) – special adaptation needs
• Decision-makers need information about potential SLR impacts for adaptation planning 04/13/2018
Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Study Aims 1) Assess WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under SLR scenarios until 2100 • • •
1,073 natural and cultural WHS (2017) cultural WHS Mediterranean region
2) Support decision-makers in adaptation planning • • •
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point out WHS most at risk prioritise adaptation strategies basis for local-scale assessments
Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Methods – Data Processing Data constraints
Data pre-processing
• Tabular data with point coordinates • Data points partly misplaced • Data do not account for serial sites
• Add data entry of each serial site • Correct misplaced sites • Manually digitise polygon of each site
Old City of Dubrovnik, Croatia 04/13/2018
Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Methods – Risk Analysis FLOOD RISK Vulnerability
100-yr floodplain • Storm surge
• Sea-level rise (3 scenarios)
Hazard
RISK
• Vertical land movement Exposure
Wolff et al., 2018, Sci Data
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Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
• Flood area adapted from • IPCC, Flood depth 2014
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Methods – Risk Analysis EROSION RISK Vulnerability
Sea-level rise
Hazard
RISK
Exposure
• Distance from the coast • Coastal material • Mean wave height • Sediment supply
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Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Methods – Risk Analysis INDEX
0 not at risk
1 very low
2 low
3 moderate
4 high
5 very high
Flood area [%]
0
≤5
5 - 10
10 - 25
25 - 50
> 50
Flood depth [m]
0
≤ 0.1
0.1 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
>1
> 1000
500 - 1000
200 - 500
50 - 200
10 - 50
≤ 10
-
sandy
Indicator
FLOOD RISK
Flood risk index
EROSION RISK Distance [m] Coastal material
rocky
-
muddy; rocky with pocket beaches
Mean wave height [m]
≤ 0.2
0.2 - 0.4
0.4 - 0.6
0.6 - 0.8
> 0.8
Sediment supply index
< 1.5
1.5 - 2.4
2.5 - 3.4
3.5 - 4.4
≥ 4.5
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Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
Erosion risk index
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Preliminary Results – Flood Risk (high-end) • 41 WHS at risk (84 %) • Italy (13), Croatia (7), Greece (3)
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• Venice: Flood area 98.5 % Flood depth 3.5 m
Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Preliminary Results – Erosion Risk • 43 WHS at risk (88 %) • Highest risk: Tyre, Lebanon • Italy (11), Croatia (7), Greece (4), Tunisia (4)
04/13/2018
Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Implications for Adaptation Relocation
Accommodation
Protection
• Must not compromise the site‘s OUV
• Must be analysed on a case-by-case basis • Should account for both risks and long-term SLR
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Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Summary & Further Work • First-order assessment – Possible to rank and compare WHS – Basis for adaptation planning
• Almost all coastal WHS (98 %) at risk from at least one hazard until 2100 • Local-scale assessments needed to develop adaptation measures – Use and further develop our extended WHS data
– Include local data, vulnerability indicators, more detailed modelling approaches
• Apply the method to other regions
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Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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Closing Remarks • Reimann et al. (under review): “Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise“ • Coastal UNESCO cultural Heritage data (shapefiles, tables) available upon publication
Thank you for your attention!
04/13/2018
Lena Reimann
EGU 2018, Vienna
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