Sustainable Development and Planning Sustainable

13 downloads 0 Views 3MB Size Report
0.450. 2.171. 0.779. 2015. 1.978. 0.945. 2.309. 0.673. 2.814. 0.599. 2.364 ..... capacity to impact in urban regeneration through assuming the implied costs. ...... 80 mol.% was used. When supplying the methane-hydrogen fraction in amount of ...
International Journal of

Sustainable Development and Planning Encouraging a unified approach to achieve sustainability

Volume 12, Number 5, 2017 TM

Objectives The International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning responds on the necessity to relate the fields of planning and development in an integrated way and in accordance with the principles of sustainability. The Journal covers all aspects of planning and development including environmental design, planning and management, spatial planning and sustainable development. It is the aim of the editors of the Journal to create an interdisciplinary forum where all the issues related with the concept of sustainability (environmental, spatial, economical and social), are open for scientific discussion.

Coordinator C.A. Brebbia Wessex Institute, UK

International Editorial Board

K. Aravossis National Technical University, Greece A. Balducci AESOP, Italy J. Barnes University of the West of England, UK S. Basbas Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece E. Beriatos University of Thessaly, Greece H. Bjornlund University of South Australia, Australia C. Booth University of the West of England, UK C. Borrego University of Aveiro, Portugal R. Brandtweiner Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria S. Brody Texan A&M University, USA Ni-Bin Chang University of Central Florida, USA M.E. Conti University of Rome, Italy M. Cunha Universidade de Coimbra, Portugal L. D’Acierno ‘Federico II’ University of Naples, Italy

A. Gospodini University of Thessaly, Greece K.L. Katsifarakis Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece H. Kawashima University of Tokyo, Japan E. Larcan Politecnico di Milano, Italy D. Longo University of Bologna. Italy G. Lorenzini University of Parma, Italy G.K. Luk Ryerson University, Canada I.G. Malkina-Pykh Russian Academy of Sciences, St Petersburg, Russia S. Mambretti Politecnico di Milano, Italy Ü. Mander University of Tartu, Estonia J.F. Martin-Duque Universidad Complutense, Spain M.A. Martins-Loucao University of Lisbon, Portugal J.L. Miralles i Garcia Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain M. Mohssen Lincoln University, New Zealand V. Pappas University of Patras, Greece F. Pineda Complutense University, Spain U. Pröbstl-Haider BOKU, Austria

D. Proverbs University of Birmingham, UK R.M. Pulselli University of Siena, Italy G. Reniers University of Antwerp, Belgium S. Riley Teritary Engg & Sustainable Technology Pty Ltd, Australia G. Rizzo Universita di Palermo, Italy G. Rodriguez Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain R. Rojas-Caldelas Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexico F. Russo University of Mediterranean Reggio Calabria, Italy S. Samant National University of Singapore, Singapore M. Sepe University of Naples, Italy R. Sjoblom Tekedo AB / Luleå University of Technology, Sweden J.H.R. van Duin Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands J-Z. Xiao Tongji University, China M. Zamorano University of Granada, Spain

International Journal of

Sustainable Development and Planning Encouraging a unified approach to achieve sustainability

Volume 12, Number 5, 2017

COORDINATOR Carlos A. Brebbia

Wessex Institute, UK

Southampton, Boston

ii

Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

PUBLICATION AND OPEN-ACCESS FEE WIT Press is committed to the free flow of information to the international scientific community. To provide this service, the Journals require a publication fee to be met by the authors or the research funding bodies for each paper published. The fee in this Journal is €130 per published page and is payable upon acceptance of the paper. The paper will then be Open Access, i.e. immediately and permanently free to everybody to read and download. FREQUENCY AND FORMAT The International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning will be published in eight issues per year in colour. All issues will be supplied to subscribers both online (ISSN: 1743-761X) and in paper format (ISSN: 1743-7601). SUBMISSIONS The International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning is a refereed journal. In order to be acceptable for publication submissions must describe advances made in one or more of the topics listed on the right or others that are in-line with the objectives of the Journal. If you are interested in submitting a paper please contact: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING WIT, Ashurst Lodge, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK. Tel: 44 (0) 238 029 3223, Fax: 44 (0) 238 029 2853 Email: [email protected] TYPES OF CONTRIBUTIONS Original papers; review articles; short communications; reports of conferences and meetings; book reviews; letters to the editor and selected bibliography. Papers essentially of an advertising nature will not be accepted. AUTHORS INSTRUCTIONS All material for publication must be submitted in electronic form, in both the native file format and as a PDF file, and be PC compatible. The text area is 200mm deep and 130mm wide. For full instructions on how to format and supply your paper please go to: www.witpress.com/authors/submit-a-journal-paper SAMPLE COPY REQUEST Subscribe and request your free sample copy online at: www.witpress.com/journals

♦ Sustainable development ♦ Rural planning ♦ Urban planning ♦ Urban and regional design ♦ Ecosystems analysis and protection ♦ Natural resource management ♦ Coastal planning and policy ♦ Waste management ♦ Environmental infrastructure ♦ Air, water and soil pollution ♦ Remediation and recovery ♦ Geo-informatics and the environment ♦ Environmental impact assessment ♦ Environmental economics ♦ Environmental legislation and policy ♦ Tourism and the environment ♦ Social issues ♦ Resources management ♦ Planning in less favoured areas ♦ Regional economics ♦ Utilities and networks ♦ Energy resources ♦ Education and health ♦ Cultural heritage issues ♦ Visual impact and noise pollution

SUBSCRIPTION RATES 2017: Vol 12, Issues 1 – 8, Online and print access US$1900.00

ISSN: 1743-761X (on line) and ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format) © WIT Press 2017. Printed in Great Britain by Printondemand Worldwide.

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 853–866

PLANNING ACTIVITIES IN COASTAL AREAS ITALIAN AND CROSS-BORDER APPROACHES ALONG THE ADRIATIC SEA DONATELLA CIALDEA L.a.co.s.t.a. Laboratory (Laboratory for the activities related to the territorial and environmental development) University of Molise, Via De Sanctis 86100 Campobasso, ITALY.

ABSTRACT Coastal areas are the typical ‘critical zones’ for the planning activities. This paper illustrates the results realised by the L.a.co.s.t.a. Laboratory of the University of Molise in Italy, in order to compare the analysis of urban and territorial planning processes in force in Italy and in its Cross-border Countries along the Adriatic Sea. The work has examined the historical evolution of the laws and norms relating to the landscape protection in different situations, with particular attention to those preserving the landscape values in harmony with the territorial plans, to contrast the growing anthropic development especially along the coastal zones. The aim of our research is to define the different levels of territorial survey and develop a basic cartography for the countries involved in our survey so as to assure the validity of the methodology used in analysing the territory by taking into account the diverse territorial conditions of each country. Keywords: coastal zones, landscape, planning.

1  INTRODUCTION This paper contains the results of the international comparative studies in planning activities related to the coastal areas along the Adriatic Sea, which have been undertaken during the recent years by the L.a.co.s.t.a. Laboratory of the University of Molise, as part of the projects financed by the Interreg IIIA Programme Adriatic Cross Border (‘Sustainable Development of Coastal Areas’) and by the NPPA Neighbourhood Programmes INTERREG/CARDSPHARE (“Archaeological and Environmental Sites”) whose Scientific Director was Prof. Donatella Cialdea. The approach to planning activities it not the same in the countries that were examined : in fact it is very different in Italy and in the Cross-Border Countries. Italian processes aim to unify the concepts of ‘urban’ and ‘landscape’ approaches, that traditionally followed different planning and legislative schemes. In the Balkan States, the planning processes derive from a historical and political context profoundly marked by events from 1991 till date. The main laws of land-use planning were drawn up after 1991, ex novo or as replacements for existing ones, proposing a totally different system from the previous one, where existing. Our work was carried out by developing a detailed analysis of the policies for the planning activities control and analyszing some typical situations along the coastal areas of which, as noted, diverse countries with different planning policies overlook. The analysed examples concern, in particular, the central part of the Adriatic coast: the Italian side is represented by the Molise Region while for the Cross-border coasts the Croatian and the Albanian cases are involved. In fact, these countries were partners in some recent projects carried out on already mentioned EU funds by the L.a.co.s.t.a Laboratory.

© 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-853-866

854

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

2  THE URBAN AND LANDSCAPE POLICIES The Italian planning system began in a historical and temporal context that is very different from that of Croatia and Albania, and is the result of a stratification of plans and regulations from the 1940s till today. In fact, in Italy, the legislative framework was for the first time organized in the still enforced Urban General Law No. 1150 of 1942, which has been changed or revised through the years. Despite the wealth of laws produced in this sector, both in quantity and in quality, the results on the territory are not what were expected. The attention that was given to ‘landscape’ and ‘cultural heritage’ protection from the 1930s contributed to the enlargement of the Italian legislative framework that is formed by complete and extended laws (Law No. 1089 and Law No. 1497 of 1939 and Law No. 431 of 1985) not always well interpreted and put into act by Local and Regional Administrations. The orientation and ‘identification of the policy for national territorial organization’ are currently under the National Government jurisdiction but it has no powers to actually draw up Urban Plans. From 1998 Provinces – which contain some Municipalities – must draw up a General Plan of the Province’s Territory that should deal with the various territorial planning themes without excluding the landscape and the environment. These plans should be able to fill the gaps caused by Regional Plans, scheduled by the Urban General Law of 1942 and never enacted by administrations in charge. It is also important to underline the aim of linking, within the Provincial Plans, the ‘urban’ and ‘landscape’ themes that traditionally followed different legislative and planning rules. The Galasso Law (the already mentioned Law No. 431/1985) delegated landscape conservation to a specific ‘Vast Area Landscape Environmental Plan’, which had started out as sectorial plans but often became the only planning tool above the municipal level. The General Plan of the Province’s Territory should comply with the Landscape Plans where they exist, and, regarding landscape conservation, fill the planning gaps in the territory, which have been caused by the absence of landscape plans. There is a problem in the coordination between landscape planning and physical planning but mainly between the General Plan of the Province’s Territory and the existing sectorial plans. The stratification of plans which overlap at different levels, often approved whilst the Urban Plans are still in force, causes a situation that is complex and difficult to interpret. The drawing up of sectorial plans contributes to the creation of conflicts and contradictions between the different planning tools and doubt about the interpretation of the plans and their activation on the territory. Italy’s physical and urban planning system is characterised by a surplus of laws and plans that, aiming to deepen the knowledge of every aspect of territorial management, causes many difficulties for their application and for management of realization times [1–8]. In the Balkan States, 1991 can be seen as a turning point in the history of these countries: in that year, Croatia declared its independence from the Federation, while in Albania, the Parliamentary Democracy replaced the Socialist Government of Enver Hoxha. Moreover, in Croatia and in Albania, in parallel to the consolidation of the Republic, the decentralization of administrative functions from Central Government to Local Government Units occurred with the consequent delegation of planning activities. The first laws for land-use planning were, therefore, drawn up after 1991, proposing a system totally different from the previous one. The territorial analysis conducted on the countries in the case studies reveals that the increasing anthropic use mostly concerns coastal areas, leaving almost or entirely unchanged the inland areas, with the exception of the areas of the capital, Zagreb or Tirana. As a result of this non-regulated urban development suffered by the two Balkan Countries, their spatial planning systems are forced to deal with the increasing development within the territory,



D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

855

t­rying to shorten as much as possible the time necessary for the implementation of these plans. This need is even more evident in Albania, where the processes of formation and implementation of plans are often very long, thus contributing to the extension of the phenomena of illegal building [9–11]. In particular, in Croatia, the process of the decentralisation of state power began in the early 1990s and became one of the fundamental elements in the democratisation of the State. Currently, the subdivision of administrative and decisional competences is established by the law on local and regional autonomy (‘Official Gazette’ n. 33/2001), which identifies two levels of government units below that of the state. The first unit is the county: within the county, power is divided between two other local government units, namely, cities and municipalities, which represent a grouping of territories, on the basis of the number of inhabitants. A municipality is constituted by groupings of settlements which together reach a total of 10,000 inhabitants: groupings of over 10,000 inhabitants constitute a city. However, despite the existence of a political division with so many branches, the country has a joint territorial plan to which the individual plans of the counties, cities and municipalities must refer [12–14]. During the process of decentralisation, the territorial planning system was updated and improved in order to respond to new needs and within the space of 10 years all counties had their own territorial plan based upon the principles laid down by the central government. The Croatian Republic Territorial Planning Strategy, the text which forms the basis of the entire Croatian planning system, was drawn up and approved in 1997, in conformity with the Territorial Planning Law of 1994. This very important document, drawn up at the end of the civil war, made a realistic analysis of the situation in post-war Croatia and provided the foundations for all future planning throughout the Republic. Territorial planning must, therefore, valorise the presence of the natural resources which, although not many in number, constitute a patrimony of great value for the diversity and quality which characterise them. However, a territorial management system must also take into account not just the strengths but also their weaknesses In fact, the strategy also highlights the main problems afflicting the country, which constitute a menace for future sustainable development. The key texts kept in the library together with the law on territorial planning (‘Official Gazette’ n. 30/94, 68/98, 61/00, 32/02 and 100/04) establish the level of territorial planning levels and the types of obligatory plans for the counties, cities and municipalities: 1. County territorial plans; 2. Territorial plans in areas with particular characteristics; 3. Territorial plans for cities and municipalities; 4. General urban plans; 5. Local urban plans; 6. Detailed plans. The landscape is one of the elements protected by the territorial plan, which dedicates a specific article to the subject at the end of the norms attached to the plan entitled ‘Protection measures for landscape values’. In Albania the territorial management was in the hands of two specific bodies, one at the state level, the Council for Territorial Management, and one at the local level, the District Council. The latter was abolished following the decentralisation of functions to Local Government Units which were organised by Law No. 8653 of the 31/07/00 ‘Territorial-administrative division of local government units in the Albanian Republic’. The first level remains that defined as ‘Communes and Municipalities’, that is the local government base units which both have the same competences and authority. The only difference between a commune and a municipality derives from the fact that the first acts in rural areas and the second in urban areas. The second level was introduced by the law of 2000 and is defined as ‘Region’. This represents a territorial and administrative unit comprising several Communes and Municipalities with the same interests, the same geographical, traditional, economic and social characteristics.

856

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

The border of the Region coincides with that of the Cities and Municipalities which fall within it. The regions are divided into districts. The territorial planning system was updated, in parallel to the decentralisation process described above, by the Urban Planning Law No. 8405 of the 17/09/1998. According to the present law on urban planning a ‘Regional Urban Planning Study’ is a complex urban study, which includes the territory of one or more municipalities or districts; a ‘General Plan’ is an urban planning study of a specific aspect, which includes the entire national territory or its parts; an ‘Environmental Study’ is that which determines the ecological conditions or situation of a given area; a ‘General Planning Scheme’ is a complex urban planning study of a limited area and includes an examination of the prospects for expansion of a city’s territory and the suburban zones of a village, settlement or centre for accommodation, industry and so on; and a ‘Partial Urban Planning study’ is a detailed study based on the forecast of a general town planning scheme, and includes parts of the territory where regulated actions are foreseen. In contrast to the general picture of coastal management, several important planning and protection operations have been undertaken in areas of particular environmental value. Coastal management plans have been drawn up for these areas and in some cases zoning of the park or protected area has been approved. Moreover, Albania’s remaining coastal areas are protected by a decision of the Council of Ministers No. 321 of the 20/07/92 which defined a Protected Coastal Strip that extends along the entire Albanian coastline and is denominated the ‘vija kufizuese bredgetare’, that is the ‘red line’. The ‘line’ runs at a distance of 300 m from the coast, at 150 m from river banks and 200 m from historical and archaeological sites. In the areas delimited by this line every operation is subject to the approval of the Council for Territorial Planning (KRT). Moreover, both Croatia and Albania are areas rich in environmental values. In particular, in Croatia the numerous islands that characterise the country form an environmental patrimony of considerable importance, safeguarded through the instrument of protected areas and through the implementation of the Nature 2000 Network. There are also sites of international interest such as Ramsar areas and a MAB Reserve. Despite the rapid building development, the Albanian coasts are still rich in uncontaminated naturalistic values between beaches and lagoons that outline a very articulated coast. Even along the Albanian coast there are numerous Ramsar areas and the Government is taking steps towards drafting a list of areas for inclusion in the Nature 2000 Network. Moreover, the aim of this paper is related to underline in our case-study the presence of interesting natural features that have been described in order to extend our territorial methodology to the Cross-Border Countries. 3  THE COMPARATIVE TERRITORIAL ANALYSES A methodology to compare territorial analyses, drawn up by L.a.co.s.t.a. in recent years, was expanded on the systems based on the territorial planning of the Balkan Countries. It is based on the quality landscape aims researching, in order to provide useful contributions about ‘measures for the protection of landscape values’. The identification of quality landscape aims is a methodology for setting up territorial studies which can aid decision making on the part of local agencies as regards planning in the coastal zone; therefore, the territories analysed are the coastal areas belonging to the countries involved in the project. Therefore, in the first instance material was sought out which would permit a homogeneous reading of the territory in all three countries. It is obvious that the analysis of diverse entities requires the use of uniform tools, as far as possible standardised and known (Fig. 1). The study areas, where the territorial analysis was undertaken, were



D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

857

Figure 1:  The Land Use Map with the unified legend. Source:  DIVA Processing in ArcGis by l.a.co.s.t.a. Lab.

chosen on the basis of two parameters: 1. coastal conditions and 2. the presence of environmental value areas. The coastal sample areas are very different. The Croatian coast, rich in natural and cultural features – some of which are recognised as world heritage sites by UNESCO, presents a very varied situation from an orographic point of view. Often high and rocky, in other tracts the coast is flat. Really interesting are the mouths of the rivers Cetina and Neretva. These are areas in which there is heavy anthropological pressure – also linked with beach tourism – and the widespread presence of natural environments of great value. The Albanian coast is characterised in the northern part by flat areas of alluvial origin with marshy zones and lagoons between the river mouths; several of which are recognised as wetlands under the Ramsar Convention. In contrast, the south coast is mainly high and rocky. There are two interesting areas: the lagoons of Karavasta and Butrint close to which there are important archaeological sites. In Italy we have a different condition: the coast is flat and the major communication infrastructures (state road, motorway and railway) run along the Italian Adriatic coast, especially in the Molise Region, together with the widespread presence of structures used in the summer. Moreover, in these sample areas we have conducted our research and applied our methodology: Our elementary data were collected and divided according to the five Resource Systems. They are: Physical-Environmental Resources System; Landscape-Visual Resources System; Historical-Cultural Resources System; Agricultural-Productive Resources System: Demographic-Tourism Resources System (Fig. 2a). In some cases, the data was extrapolated from maps and is usable in the form of shape files with polygons characterised by attributes that are easily transformable into grids; in other cases, the data is of numeric type (shape files) but is formed by data points (and diffusion algorithms have been elaborated for each i­ ndividual

858

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

case); in yet other cases, the data was provided by the local administration (and for each case disgregation algorithms have been found for the creation of grids containing information useful for research purposes). The data for each system is processed in three chosen states, these are the Present State; the State evolved over time; and the Previsional State, that is with reference to the formulation of urban planning tools currently in use. Therefore, three basic grids were created, which serve as a reference for the reading of each resource system. They were constructed starting from several primary documents. The term basic grid defines the layers constituting the information base of the management system for the territorial data, which is useful for landscape analysis. Comparisons between the basic grids of each resource system will create the information and evaluations which will form the research conclusions (Fig. 2b). To create the grids the raster data model was applied; precisely because the data derives from various sources and is unhomogeneous (from traditional map data to that in GIS format,

Figure 2:  (a) Diagram showing data collection. Source: Our elaboration (b) From the systems to the evaluation. Source:  Our elaboration.



D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

859

with different levels of geo-referencing from the lowest level to data shape points), the raster model is the least approximate for this type of application. As is known, the two main systems for modelling the real world in GIS are the raster model and the vector model. An extremely concise description of the specifications of each model in relation to the type of data to be processed is that the vector model suits discrete data, for example administrative boundaries, the limits of an urban planning zone, the electricity lines and data shape points, but is not good for representing data of a continuous nature such as the altimetrical model of a territory, the influence of a data shape point on the surrounding territory and distribution models in general because such phenomena do not have precise boundaries without any breaks. Moreover, the raster model facilitates intersection analysis with data of diverse accuracy because the accuracy is defined (knowingly by whoever conducts the analysis) by the size of the data cell used (and, therefore, by the accuracy established for the model) and not by the accuracy of the data collection. An evaluation was assigned regarding the importance of each single element for each of the above mentioned categories; this evaluation is known as a value and may vary in a domain given by the following scale of ordinal type points: Low; Medium; High; Exceptional. In this form the synthesised maps were digitalised for the purposes of the project thus obtaining layers of vector information divided into the above categories and by different primitive graphic representations (point, line or polygon). Although the importance of the information contained in the layer regarding geological instability was recognised, the decision was taken during the construction of the basic raster, to omit the elements it contained. This choice was motivated by the obvious difference in the nature of the information in this layer; in fact, it does not present a positive value but a negative one. Therefore, the following four raster were obtained, one for each category of interest: Historic; Agricultural; Naturalistic; Visual. The study wanted to take a close look at the aspects of planning in coastal areas, which are particularly interesting from an environmental point of view. For Croatia we analysed the area of the Neretva River Delta, south of Split, and, for Albania, the area of the Karavasta Lagoon, south of the port of Durres. We have chosen these two cross-border areas as they have several aspects in common: both are areas included in the Ramsar Convention List, both are coastal areas and, in particular, both are situated in an agricultural productive context. We aimed to analyse these sites, because of their naturalistic importance and also because of the attention paid to planning tools to support their protection (Fig. 3). Moreover, the conditions of the coastal area in the Molise Region are different: it has numerous natural areas classified as Sites of Community Importance – which are located along the mouths of major rivers and along the coast and where there are residual sand dunes – but there are no Ramsar areas. They are also inserted in a typically agricultural context, for which specific planning norms are totally lacking. As regards the geological characteristics on both sides there are soils of the same age although the more recent land typical of the Italian coastline is totally missing on the Balkan coasts. This difference creates totally different geographical features along the two coast lines. The western coast is mainly linear and flat with sandy beaches, with the exception of some promontories. This geographical shape is defined by the land’s geology, which is mostly clay deposits and sandstones, as well as by the presence of surface runoff that brings sediment and detritus material along the coast. The eastern coast, in the section between the Gulf of Trieste and the border between Montenegro and Albania, on the other hand, is characterised by a very indented coastline flanked by numerous islands that run parallel to the coast [15–19]. This shape is defined by the mainly karstic nature of the coastal region, where, for several hundreds

860

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Figure 3:  The sample areas. Source:  Processing in ArcGis by l.a.co.s.t.a. Lab.

kilometres, there are rivers carrying alluvial sediment to the coast. Finally, on the Albanian coast, flat shapes return, coastlines of floodplains and lagoons. The Croatian coasts along the Adriatic Sea, therefore, constitute a rich environmental heritage, within a complex system of protected areas: they have a jagged outline, with 1200 islands, islets and rocks and with important contexts, such as the archipelago of Kornati (Dugi Otok), Mljet (Mljet), the Brijuni (Brioni) and the waterfalls of the Krka. Croatia became a part of the European Union in July 2013 and, therefore, the Government began to align to European Directives for environmental protection. The final list of Nature 2000 Network sites is in the process of being adopted by the Croatian Government. The list



D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

861

will be sent to the European Commission together with the standard forms and maps. It is expected that the final list will contain more than 700 SCI proposals (174 of which will be caves) and 38 SPAS[20], thus putting Croatia, together with Slovenia and Bulgaria, on top of the standings among the countries with highest percentages of territory included in the Nature 2000 Network. Practically the whole of the coastline and the islands are being inserted within the Nature 2000 Network. In addition, Albania is characterised by a rich biodiversity and a wide presence of ecosystems, which are untouched or only slightly affected by anthropic activity [21–22]. The Law no. 8906/2002 on protected areas [23] incorporated from previous initiatives many indications, regarding the protection and enhancement of natural resources. Prior to 1990, Albania had a centralised economic system that managed to maintain a relative balance between rural and urban people. After 1990, the liberalisation of the economy produced a process of urbanisation and migration from the countryside to the city of proportions never known before. Movements of population from the countryside to the cities have led to a significant increase in the population centres in coastal urban with significant consequences on the environment. A number of animal species have begun to disappear, others have suffered a dangerous decrease in their number and others are at risk of extinction. Threats to the various natural ecosystems, especially forests and lagoon areas displace the local animal species by putting at risk the inherited natural balances. As a potential candidate country for accession to the European Union, Albania has undertaken to combat environmental degradation. The promotion of Nature 2000 Network in Albania might help the Albanian Government to align its environmental legislation with that of the European Union, as well as to create development opportunities for the local communities that live in rural areas. 4  RESULTS The results of the study applied to the case of Croatia and in particular the case of the Neretva delta has been illustrated. It is particularly interesting because of the close relationship between the development of settlements and tourist activities along the coastlines and infrastructures. In fact, there are numerous processes involved in the evolution of land use caused by anthropic activities. In recent years the road networks, including roads and highways, have increased. This new network has connected very distant areas within each country and replaced the local roads that, in Croatia, followed the tortuous course of the coast and, in Albania, ran through the central part of the country, from North to South along the contours of the mountain territories. Until 2000, the major Croatian infrastructures were built in the northern part of the country in order to connect the coast with the capital Zagreb and the latter with the rest of Eastern Europe. The motorway network, almost non-existent before 2000, is now completed in almost all the main directions. The A1 Motorway, also called Dalmatinska Autocesta, which runs nearly parallel to the coastline, connects Zagreb with Sibenik, Split up to Plocˇe constituting an important artery for the development of the Croatian coastal area. Moreover, new ports have infrastructures that have changed the profile of the coast. Croatia, really rich in islands, presents 56 marinas in service for recreational craft. The main ports are Zadar, Split and Dubrovnik, locations from which it is easy to reach the islands and the tourist coastal towns too. Other territorial transformation of coastal areas is due to agriculture that occupies large flat areas. At the same time, there are strong natural and landscape values [24–25]. The lower course of the Neretva River is a rare bio-ecological complex, as the result of centuries of natural modifications and more or less recent anthropic changes. The Neretva is the only river in the Region that opens into the sea with a delta mouth. At the same time the delta area

862

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

presents the most intensive level of anthropic transformation. If in the past, the alluvial plain was known for malaria that systematically troubled the people, the improvements in the region over the last 30 years that have been undertaken using FAO funds have much improved the general conditions of life in the region. The Neretva river delta always attracts the attention of those who want to take advantage of its resources. It is evident that the different morphological modifications, introduced by human activities in the delta area, are expression of the different cultures which in time survived. However, the most significant transformation of this area appeared in recent decades, with a process of progressive reclamation aimed at protecting the region from flooding. An important aggression to the marshes was the drainage of the Modricˇ Lake and of the entire lagoon. This modification caused the destruction of the habitat of many species of seabirds and migratory birds that used this area. The lower valley of the Neretva River is still at risk from the further expansion of the port and the urban area of Plocˇ e, c as well as from vacation homes, industries and water pollution phenomena caused upstream by sewage from Mostar. The lower valley of the Neretva River is also subject to agricultural exploitation, but water drainage is less intense than in the past. However, the agrarian landscape integrates with the surrounding environment by providing the entire area a character strongly anthropiszed and for this it is different from the rest of the coast. The landscape of the Neretva delta is defined as the Green Pearl of the Croatian Southern Coast. In this paper we present the analyses carried out on the site of the Neretva Delta and especially the analysis of the land use related to different types of protected zones in this area (Fig. 4) and the analysis of agricultural use of the area set in the county plan (Fig. 5). In particular, Fig. 4 shows the analysis of the land use, through the Corine Land Cover data. This area is not a real protected area, although the establishment of the Neretva Delta Park was already proposed in 2003 and then again in 2007.

Figure 4: Land use Analysis of the Neretva’s Delta area. Source: Corine Land Cover, Promotion of Networks and exchanges in countries of South Eastern Europe REReP 3.4.23, Processing in ArcGis by l.a.co.s.t.a. Lab.



D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

863

Figure 5: Norms in agricultural zones of the Neretva’s Delta area. Source: Prostorni plan Županije Dubrovnik-Neretva, Processing in ArcGis by l.a.co.s.t.a. Lab.

In our map, protected areas such as fish and bird reserves and protected landscapes are highlighted. This area was also included in the Ramsar List in 1993, with an extension of 12.742 ha and, finally, it was classified as a Site of Community Importance and inserted in the European Nature 2000 Network and, as such, it is pending approval and, therefore, its Management Plan. The area is therefore affected by various types of protection, lacking a total and organic safeguard in the area. Because of its environmental peculiarity, the Dubronik-Neretva County Plan regulates its land use. Figure 5 shows, in fact, the requirements relating to the agricultural and forestry uses of the area under consideration, proposed by this plan, combining the environmental and landscape safeguards for a correct and sustainable land use. This area is of fundamental importance for agricultural production especially of fruit trees and citrus fruits. This production, which supplies all the national and international markets, is abundant because it arises from those territories that were subject to the land reclamation projects during the 1950s. 5  CONCLUSIONS Planning in coastal areas is certainly a central aspect of our study. In this paper a specific application regarding the case of the Neretva’s Delta was illustrated, but the methodology was applied to other case studies. The most interesting considerations concern the comparison between the different situations in different countries, because the very different urban policies in place influence territorial assessments. Along the coastline areas, in fact, the most critical elements of the demographic and economic development of the involved regional contexts, converge. In the Molise case study, the region has experienced over the last three decades an intense construction activity, mainly concentrated in some municipalities: it highlights the existence of a real risk of a large-scale process of urbanisation of the Molise coast.

864

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

A similar phenomenon is certainly sweeping the coastal landscape of Albania, in which there is, since the 1990s, the above mentioned process of urbanisation of the coastal strip, mainly concentrated in the vicinity of major urban areas, such as Durres and Vlora. Moreover, the methods of planning and the landscape of Croatia and Albania, having newly developed tools and recent laws, because of the troubled political history of these countries, present the benefit of having the spatial policy closely tied to the landscape policy. The planning system in Albania began to be amended in the late 1990s, to adapt to the new political subdivisions and the decentralisation process that was started in those years. In response to the drastic changes in the use of the Albanian territory, the Albanian Government aims to address territorial development by implementing the concept of sustainable development considering all the components of the territory. The aim is not only to plan the sustainable development of the Albanian territory but also to decentralise some planning activities. In fact, it transfers the decision-making process for the drafting and approval of urban planning by the Central Government to Local Governments. In Croatia, issued new guidelines with respect to planning in the mid 1990s, which were later formulated as guidelines for the protection of the territory and the quality of the environment. Ten years later, in 2007, the first generation of laws on planning, the Law on Physical Planning and Construction Law was enacted, that governs the system of urban planning and the construction sector, the authority of State Power and Local Governments. Another reason that prompted our research towards the deepening of a planning policy of Croatia was the Government’s focus on the coastal areas, with the precise aim of containing urban sprawl along the coastline. The Croatian Government, in fact, strengthened the safeguards of the coastal heritage, extending the buffer zone of coastal and forcing counties to update their urban plans based on that law. The Plan of the Dubrovnik-Neretva County, in fact, has among its measures, the preservation and development of cultural, natural, historical and monumental and environmental, in addition to the conservation of marine resources. The plan identifies the landscapes to be protected and provides to extend the areas to be exploited, also including degraded areas and uninhabited islands, intended for tourist use and excluded from new construction projects. In conclusion, it was important to start from the most recent planning considerations in the Balkans Countries, while in Italy the inevitable temporal overlap of legislation has always separated the general planning from the planning oriented to landscape preservation. Therefore, the analysis of case studies identified in the Cross-border Countries is a contribution to the deepening of the relationship between spatial planning and landscape planning, as the urbanisation of coastal areas inevitably also affects the inner territories, invested from economic pressure issues related to tourism development that make the integrity of the environment and the landscape vulnerable in its more fragile contexts. Our methodology foresees the drawing up of a comparative and evaluation analysis for each of the resource systems, (that is, physical-environmental resource, landscape-visual resource, historic-cultural resource, productive-agricultural resource, demographic-tourism resource). Synthetic values emerge from the processing for each resources system, through the transformation of elementary data into indicators. For each resource system a final synthetic value was then calculated, which constitutes the orientation of the landscape quality aims for each territorial environment examined. Such landscape quality aims, according to the dictates of the new approaches are oriented to conservation, sustainable development and re-qualification, in order to achieve the evaluations targeted towards the search for landscape quality aims.



D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

865

REFERENCES [1] Cialdea, D., Coastal zones along the Adriatic Sea. Italian and Cross-border experiences. WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, Vol 148, WIT Press, pp. 237–248, 2015. [2] Cialdea, D., The Landscape features in the urban context. Sustainable strategies for the small town in the South of Italy. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Changing Cities II: Spatial, Design, Landscape & Socioeconomic dimensions, ed. A. Gospodini. Grafima Publ.: Thessaloniki, pp. 169–179, 2015. [3] Cialdea, D., Research Methodology. Territorial Survey Interreg Reports. Materials for Adriatic Cross Border Project. Report No. 1. GES.S.TER. Project/Interreg IIIA vol. 1, pp. 1–88, ArtiGRaficheLaregione, Campobasso, 2005. [4] Cialdea, D., et al. Land Survey Materials. In Interreg Reports. Materials for Adriatic Cross Border Project Report No. 2 Land Use Evaluation. Analysis in the Different Landscape Performances GES.S.TER. Project/Interreg IIIA vol. 2 Chapter 4, pp. 173–177, ArtiGRaficheLaregione, Campobasso, 2006. [5] Cialdea, D., et al. The GIS architecture elements for the coastal areas along the Adriatic Sea. In Proceedings of the 46th Congress of the European Regional Science Association, “Enlargement, Southern Europe & the Mediterranean”. PAPER NO. 348, Published on web wwwsre.wu-wien.ac.at /ERSA/ERSAC, 2006. [6] Cialdea, D. & Privitera, S., The state of the environment on the Adriatic coast: elements of value and conflict. In Proceedings of the 13th National Meeting of APDR University of Azores, Angra do Heroismo, Azores, Paper No. 241, Published on the web www. apdr.pt, 2007. [7] Cialdea, D., Definition of Landscape Quality Aims and Ongoing Research. In Cialdea, D. Interreg Reports. Materials for Adriatic Cross Border Project Report No. 3. Environmental Assessment GES.S.TER Project/Interreg IIIA. vol. 3 Chapter 4, pp. 154–173, ArtiGRaficheLaregione, Campobasso, 2007. [8] Cialdea, D., The study of Adriatic coastal areas: valorization hypothesis for sustainable development. In Proceedings 13th National Meeting of APDR University of Azores, Portugal, Paper n. 240, Published on the web www.apdr.pt, 2007. [9] Ledio, A., Changing Planning Cultures- The Case of Albania. Radboud University: Nijmegen, 2012. [10] Aliaj, B., Vulnerability in Albanian Cities, Dealing with Informality in Tirana. Vienna, European Urban Research Association/ EURA conference 2012. [11] Ministria e Drejtësisë, Strategjia Ndërsektoriale. Reforma në fushën e të drejtave të pronësisë 2012-2020, Tirana: Ministria e Drejtësisë, 2012. [12] Runko Luttenberger, L., Environmentally and Tourism-Friendly Urban Planning Model – The Case of Croatia, Tourism in Southern and Eastern Europe, pp. 387–394, 2013. [13] Dumbovic´ Bilušic´, B., Landscape as a New Strategy for Spatial Planning in Croatia in 16th International CEMAT Symposium and 12th Council of Europe Meeting of the Workshops for the Implementation of the European Landscape Convention“Vision for the Future of Europe on Territorial Democracy,” Thessaloniki, Greece, 2–3 October 2012. [14] Dzelalija, M., Medunic-Orlic, G., Londo, A., Muda, V., & Privitera, S., Environmental Values. In Cialdea, D. Interreg Reports. Materials for Adriatic Cross Border Project Report N. 2 Land Use Evaluation. Analysis in the Different Landscape Performances GES.S.TER. Project/Interreg IIIA, Campobasso:Arti Grafiche La Regione, pp. 100– 134, 2006.

866

D. Cialdea, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

[15] De Stefani, C., The two sides of the Adriatic Sea. Proceedings of the VIII Italian ­Geographical Congress, Florence, pp. 76–106, 1921. [16] Almagiã, Who R., Sestini A., Trevisan L. (Edited by), Atlas of geographic types of the Military Geographic Institute, 2ND edition, Florence, I. G. M., 1948. [17] Lanzafame G., Tortorici L., Geological Observations on the middle and lower basin of the Biferno River (Molise). Geol Roman, 1976. [18] Go, I.P. (Ed), Anatomy of an Orogen: The Apennines and adjacent Mediterranean Sponsored, Kluver Academic Publishers, pp. 165–176, 2001. [19] Vezzani, L., Ghisetti, F. & Feast, A., Geological Map of the Molise. 1:100,000, ­Florence, SELCA, 2004. [20] European Commission, Implementare le Direttive Habitat e Uccelli in Croazia, in ­Natura2000 Notiziario natura e biodiversità, no. 34, pp. 623–633, 2013. [21] Dida, M., State of Forest Tree Genetic Resources in Albania. Forest Genetic Resources Working Papers, working Paper FGR/ 62E. Forest Resources Development Service, Forest Resources Division. FAO, Rome, 2003. [22] Papayannis, T. & Pritchard, D.E., Cultures and Wetlands in the Mediterranean: An Evolving Story, Athens, Med-INA, 2011. [23] Albanian Law for Protected Areas N. 8906, 06 June 2002. [24] Glamuzina, B.& Glamuzina, M., Management of the Neretva River Estuary: Past and Future of a rich and fragile Natural Heritage, Naše Blackberries, no. 46 vol. 5–6, pp. 226–230, 2001. [25] Conte Dubrovnik- Neretva, Prostorni plan Županije, Paper 1.3 Uvjeti Korištenja, Uređenja The Zaštite Prostora Područja Posebnih Uvjeta Korištenja ztaništa (Izvor Park podataka Županijski Zavod za prostorno uređenje Dubrovnik).

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 867–882

LAND USE MODELS AND SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANS: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING G. POZOUKIDOU1, N. GAVANAS2 & E. VERANI2 of Spatial Planning and Development, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece. 2Transport Engineering Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece.

1School

ABSTRACT The notion of integrative and multidisciplinary approach in developing and implementing sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs) has been prevalent in the transportation planning agenda for several years now. The benefits of such approach include preparing better and public legitimate plans and promoting cooperative planning culture. In this context, European Commission (EC) currently promotes the concept of the SUMP, which can be defined as a strategic planning framework for the urban multimodal transport system combining multi-disciplinarity, policy analysis and decision making, while its objectives concise with the main pillars of sustainable urban mobility. Furthermore application guidelines for SUMP propose a combination of appropriate techniques and tools, for successful conduction of the activities and fulfilment of the requirements of the planning process. In this context, this paper argues that the use of Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) models could enhance the prospect of successful implementation of such plans. Therefore, it explores the possibility of integrating LUTI models in the various phases of a SUMP cycle. To do so, it starts with an investigation and recording of the different types of land use models and their functionality. It then specifies the criteria that someone should use in order to choose the appropriate LUTI model and it proposes a framework for the integration of LUTI models into a SUMP cycle. Finally, it discusses the expected benefits and drawbacks from such integration. The paper concludes that integration of LUTI models into the SUMP cycle, could enhance the strategic and communicative aspects of SUMPs, mainly due to the fact that LUTI models can be used as testing and evaluating tools of alternative ‘mobility futures’, and as tools to communicate and ensure mutual understanding amongst involved stakeholders and individuals. Keywords: integrated strategic planning, land use transport interaction models, mobility plans, sustainable development, sustainable urban mobility.

1  INTRODUCTION The evolution of the transport system is directly related to the mobility needs of a region in each time period, in order to obtain access to specific socio-economic activities. More specifically, transport system aims at overcoming the spatial and time separation between inter-related activities. An example from the daily travel on urban scale is the separation between place-of-work and place-of-residence. At the same time, new transport infrastructure or service may lead to an opportunity to access an activity, which was previously not accessible, thus affecting the relation between socio-economic activities [1]. The location and organisation of socio-economic activities within the boundaries of a spatial entity is described by the land use system. The land use system can be assessed by the following land use features [2, 3]: (a) type, location and spatial features, (b) characteristics and distribution of demand for socio-economic activity and (c) differentiation between the demand and supply of land uses. Main urban land uses comprise employment, education, commerce, services and recreation. An example frequently encountered in the international literature concerning the interaction between urban transport and land use system, refers to the concentration of main

© 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-867-882

868

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

land uses in an area with access from main public transport stations and the corresponding effect on land prices [4, 5]. Apart from the effect of the operation of the transport system to the accessibility conditions, transport infrastructure itself is a land use, which influences the land use system by occupying part of the available surface. This issue is significant mainly within urban areas due to the limited available space and fragmentation and segregation effects that may derive from the structure of transport infrastructure developments per se [6, 7]. There are several approaches in dealing with the analysis of the interaction between the transportation system and the land use system, one of them being the sustainable urban mobility planning approach. In opposition to conventional planning, where the increasing demand in mobility is coped with the constant increase of infrastructure, sustainable urban mobility planning is a holistic approach that aims at the maximisation of the efficiency of the transportation system while minimising transport externalities, i.e. the negative effects on the urban development, the natural environment, the economic competitiveness and the quality of life. Thus, the analysis of the interaction between the transportation system and the land use system is established as a main part of contemporary mobility planning because it integrates essential features of urban development [8]. Another significant feature of the sustainable urban mobility planning approach is that it strongly promotes the collaboration and consensus building among involved stakeholders into the various stages of the planning process. Achieving consensus among different forms of knowledge and different stakeholders from science and policy is quite a challenging task [A0]. Towards this purpose several methodologies have been developed. Some of them rely on qualitative approaches while other on quantitative methods where assessment of several planning goals for each stakeholder is performed [9–11]. Usually these methods establish a framework, which solves mobility decision-making problems in a systematic way and help in selecting the optimal policies to achieve sustainable mobility. The final decision in regard to the desired urban mobility scenario should integrate simultaneously all relevant stakeholders with different interests, some of them opposed to each other and with different criteria, which have to be consensuated [9]. Regardless the method used, consensus building seems to be a necessary procedure in order to overcome implementation challenges that most of the time cofound the execution of even strong policies and planning structures [11]. In this context, European Commission (EC) currently promotes the sustainable strategic planning approach for urban mobility in the framework of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) [12]. A SUMP is a strategic plan for the urban multimodal transport system that combines inter-disciplinary planning and policy analysis with decision making. Its objectives coincide with the components of sustainable mobility, i.e. accessibility for all, efficient and affordable mobility services, enhancement of safety and security, decrease of emissions and improvement of energy efficiency and upgrade of the urban environment. More specifically, it covers the whole planning process from the preparatory and goal setting stages to the elaboration and implementation/evaluation stages through a series of elements that consist of a set of activities and correspond to the specific objectives of the plan. The plan unravels in a circular pattern concluding in the setting of the basis for the conduction of the next SUMP. A combination of the appropriate techniques, such as quality management and benchmarking, and tools, such as indicators and models, are used in the context of a SUMP in order to successfully conduct the corresponding activities and achieve the goals of each element. One of the tools proposed by the SUMP guidelines is the Land Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI)



G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

869

models, which can be used during the preparatory stage in order to analyse the strategic scenarios regarding the impact of the transportation system on locational choices [13]. The scope of this paper is to investigate the potential contribution of the implementation of a LUTI model in the context of a SUMP’s objectives and activities. Based on previous work, the paper argues that the contribution of a LUTI model into the SUMP cycle may exceed the use during only the preparatory stage, and proposes a framework, which fully integrates a LUTI model into the SUMP cycle [14]. The first part of the paper provides a presentation of the definition of a typical land use model, the classification of land use models, as well as the role and contribution of these models to strategic transport planning. The next part refers to the description of the framework for the full integration of a typical LUTI model into the SUMP cycle. The paper concludes with an outline of the possible emerging problems and implementation issues and the overall added value from the full integration of a LUTI model to the SUMP cycle. 2  LAND USE MODELS: DEFINITION AND ROLE IN STRATEGIC TRANSPORTATION PLANNING A LUTI model is a tool for the support of strategic planning through the estimation of trends in locational choices and the forecast of land use patterns by combining the features of mobility, the socio-demographic characteristics, the features of the industry, the geomorphological and wider environmental factors, the availability of urban networks and the institutional and policy frameworks [15]. According to Fig. 1, the available infrastructure and the physical characteristics of the wider urban space and the way these features are taken into account by

Figure 1:  Form of a typical LUTI model.

870

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

the planning and policy framework create the conditions which determine the locational choices of the industry. These choices affect the locational choices of households that work in the industry according to the demographic and socio-economic features as well as to the demand and supply of the transportation system. In this way, the model is able to produce forecasts for the prediction of future land use patterns. Various LUTI models with different approaches were developed during the late 1970s and 1980s. Indicative examples are the works of Lowry, Putman, Echenique, Anas and others [16–18]. However, many of the earlier models accepted criticism regarding mainly the high cost of implementation due to the high requirements for data collection and management in relation to their ability to produce valid and case-specific results [19]. Later factors like the evolution of computers and new technologies, the ability to produce and manage geo-spatial data through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the emergence of innovative concepts, such as sustainable planning, lead to the enhancement of existing and the development of new types of land use models. In this context microsimulation, discrete choice and cellularautomata (CA) based models have been the mainstream approach in the last 10–15 years. In comparison to the early approaches of LUTI models these models tend to be more disaggregate and temporally dynamic in focus, while they are designed to be more user friendly [20]. Indicative examples of new generation models are Urbansim, SLEUTH, TIGRISXL and UPLAN. 2.1  Classification and types of urban models Using the appropriate LUTI model is essential for its successful integration in the strategic transportation planning process. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the different types of LUTI models that could correspond to different planning needs. Following is a short description of the classification criteria and the basic characteristics of each class. There are several methodologies for classifying urban models, associated mainly to the criteria used to formulate the classes. Such criteria can be the reference scale, simulation mode, time horizon, etc. [21–25] Moreover, in most cases the proposed classification is the outcome of a comparative analysis of specific urban models and therefore the criteria used serve only the classification of specific models under study. Therefore in this paper a more general classification is presented that refers to the full range of urban models combining three criteria that substantially define the character of a model: time, scale and representation of spatial correlations. The three main classes formed are: the spatial interaction models, the dynamic aggregated urban models and finally the models incorporating the ‘bottom-up’ approach and operate in small spatial units. Spatial Interaction Models: Spatial interaction models are the most applied category in urban planning practice, and the first generation of these models were static synthetic economic and spatial interaction models. Their theoretical background is identified in the science of regional economics, location theories, and urban economics. They embody the principle of suitability of land as a result of the interaction between various production factors. This category is represented by various kinds of models, which can be divided into four subcategories the entropy models, the macroeconomic and general equilibrium models, the activity based models and the microsimulation models. Dynamic Urban Models: A key element of this class of models is the interpretation of the process of urban development under the notion that both development and changes in space



G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

871

and time occur in a nonlinear way, thus creating discontinuities and random disturbances in space [22]. Allen, in 1978, borrowed the concept of ‘order through fluctuation’ from the physical and biological sciences to interpret the development of urban systems [25]. Today, very few dynamic urban models have been developed and even less have put into planning practice. Cellular Automata models: Cellular automata models are probably the most common type of urban models. Their special characteristic is the way they depict geographic space, from which they have taken their name, were space is considered to have the form of a grid or matrix of cells (cells). The basic principle they incorporate is that changes in land use can be explained by the present state of a cell and changes to that of neighbouring cells. Therefore, as regards land use correlation principles, they incorporate the principle of historical continuity and land use neighbouring interactions. For instance, the construction of a transport axis in a peri-urban zone will increase the accessibility of this zone, which in turn will trigger the process of mutation of land use from agricultural to residential or commercial. Conclusively the classification presented here, highlights the fact that there is a great variety of land use models that could be used in strategic spatial planning. Each category presents certain advantages and disadvantages that make them appropriate or not, depending on the urban/transportation planning goals. Therefore, the next section presents how land use models can be integrated into the strategic transportation planning process. 2.2  The role of LUTI models in strategic transportation planning Land use models can play a significant role in setting the framework and substance of a strategic transport plan. Relevant bibliography emphasizes the importance of treating cities as complex and evolving systems and adopting a holistic approach in order to achieve the goals of sustainable urban mobility [12]. As such, LUTI models have received a renewed attention as tools and methodologies that enable city governments and citizens to design sustainable mobility policies. LUTI models can help in various stages and in various ways in the process of a strategic transport plan. First, they can help achieve an understanding of the interaction and interrelationship between the transportation and land use system. This explanatory ability of the cause-effect relation represented in LUTI models, could determine decisions about sole planning investments or even the core of the proposed strategic approach. Second, they can be used as tools for visual experimentation during the planning process. One of the main qualities of LUTI models is their predictive abilities that are built in the system. As such, they can visualize and communicate to the user the impact of new infrastructure, policies etc., enabling the creation of alternative future scenarios. Finally, LUTI models could be very powerful communicative tools and play a significant role in a participatory planning process. More specifically in a process where different planning stakeholders are coming together to negotiate upon different interests, LUTI models could play a significant role in communicating the mutual interdependence among various perceptives, forming in that way new perceptions and values that will eventually set the ground for a collaborative decision making process. In order to ensure high quality results and useful conclusions that support strategic planning, it is essential for the planning authority to choose the appropriate LUTI model, which corresponds to the study and the available infrastructure and resources (Fig. 2).

872

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Figure 2:  Criteria for the selection of the appropriate LUTI model. In specific, the first criterion refers to which model should be selected according to the conceptual basis of the model, the level of spatial reference and the time dependency. It is obvious that these criteria correspond to the criteria used for the classification of urban models presented in previous section of this paper that ended up to three main categories (spatial interaction, dynamic, cellular automata models), which includes several subcategories. It is very likely that the selection of a model would depend on its flexibility and adjustability to the scope and specific objectives of the study or alternatively a series of models would be selected in order to serve the various needs (in scale, time and purpose) in every stage of the strategic planning process. Furthermore the compatibility of the model with other models, such as econometric or traffic models, which are currently used by the authority, is another significant criterion. In addition, the existing infrastructure of the planning organization and human resources, especially employees with appropriate expertise, and the available budget for acquiring new infrastructure and expertise, should be taken into account in relation to the model’s requirements concerning cost, infrastructure data and the technical and scientific/technical support provided by the model provider. Additionally, a noticeable added value of the model is the ability to build upon the data and results of the study and to be used in other similar studies in the future. Finally, one should take into consideration the use of the model by other planning authorities and institutions and the conduction of an evaluation with the participation of



873

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

experts. Several studies for the evaluation of LUTI models by experts were conducted by planning and administrative authorities in the United States of America (USA) [26]. 3  INTEGRATION OF A LUTI MODEL TO THE SUMP CYCLE 3.1  Brief presentation of the SUMP cycle The SUMP cycle includes the four basic stages (a) Preparing well, (b) Rational and transparent goal setting, (c) Elaborating the plan and (d) Implementing the plan, covering the process of strategic planning from the preparation to the implementation and final evaluation and identifying the corresponding milestones, i.e.: (a) Analysis of problems and opportunities concluded, (b) Measures identified, (c) SUMP document adopted and (d) Final impact assessment concluded. Each stage comprises a set of elements that include a number of activities, which are essential in order to overcome the corresponding milestone (Table 1). In this way, the SUMP is concluded with the update and review of the implementation results and the identification of the key-features that will lead to the conduction of another SUMP cycle. Table 1:  SUMP stages, steps and activities. Stages A. Preparing well

Steps

Activities

1. Determine your 1.1 Commit to overall sustainable mobility potential for a successful principles SUMP 1.2 Assess impact of regional/national framework 1.3 Conduct self-assessment 1.4 Review availability of resources 1.5 Define basic timeline 1.6 Identify key actors and stakeholders 2. Define the development process and scope of plan

2.1 Look beyond your own boundaries and responsibilities 2.2 Strive for policy coordination and an integrated planning approach 2.3 Plan stakeholder and citizen involvement 2.4 Agree on workplan and management arrangements

3. Analyse the mobility situation and develop scenarios

3.1 Prepare an analysis of problems and opportunities 3.2 Develop scenarios (Continued)

874

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Table 1: (Continued) Stages

Steps

B. Rational and 4. Develop a common transparent vision goal setting

Activities 4.1 Develop a common vision of mobility and beyond 4.2 Actively inform the public

5. Set priorities and mea- 5.1 Identify the priorities for mobility surable targets 5.2 Develop SMART targets 6. Develop effective packages of measures

6.1 Identify the most effective measures 6.2 Learn from others’ experience 6.3 Consider best value for money 6.4 Use synergies and create integrated packages of measures

C. Elaborating the plan

7. Agree on clear respon- 7.1 Assign responsibilities and resources sibilities and allocate 7.2 Prepare an action and budget plan budgets 8. Build monitoring and 8.1 Arrange for monitoring and evaluation assessment into the plan 9. Adopt Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan

9.1 Check the quality of the plan 9.2 Adopt the plan 9.3 Create ownership of the plan

D. Implementing the plan

10. Ensure proper management And communication

10.1 Manage plan implementation 10.2 Inform and engage the citizens 10.3 Check progress towards achieving the objectives

11. Learn the lessons

11.1 Update current plan regularly 11.2 Review achievements understand success and failure 11.3 Identify new challenges for next SUMP generation

Source: Bührmann et al. [13] 3.2  Description of the LUTI model integration framework The proposed framework for the integration of a LUTI model to the SUMP cycle is based on the scope of maximising the potential contribution of the model to the successful



G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

875

Figure 3:  Framework of a typical LUTI model integration to the SUMP cycle. conduction of the aforementioned activities. The overview of the framework is presented in Fig. 3. There are four (4) phases, which formulate the proposed LUTI integration framework corresponding to the four (4) stages of the SUMP cycle and eleven (11) actions which are connected to the appropriate activities of the eleven (11) SUMP elements. More specifically, either the outcome of an Activity of the SUMP cycle (from here after referred to as SUMP Activity) can be used as input for the corresponding action for the integration of the LUTI model (from here after referred to as LUTI Action) or a LUTI Action can provide outputs for the support of a SUMP Activity, as described in the following sub-sections. 3.2.1  Phase 1. Predictive (Strategy oriented) The first phase of the proposed integration framework aims at the selection and preparation (adjustment) of the appropriate LUTI model and the development of the strategic scenarios. The results from the deployment of strategic scenarios are expected to support the analysis of problems and opportunities, according to the SUMP’s first Milestone. The first LUTI Action is the definition of the model’s scope in relation to the needs of the specific study. This action depends on the following SUMP Activities: (a) 1.1, aiming at the understanding of which sustainable mobility principles will be adopted by the plan and how, (b) 1.2, involving among others the analysis of the transportation and land use policy priorities which should be taken into account by the model and (c) 1.6, aiming at the definition of the network of stakeholders from different transport-related sectors. The next action refers to the selection of the most suitable model and its adjustment to the plan’s purpose. The action depends on the aforementioned scope as well as on the SUMP Activity 1.5, i.e. the setting of the plan’s timeline, which will define the time dynamic characteristics of the model and the desired time reference of the short-term and long-term forecasts. After the selection of the most suitable model, the formulation of strategy based scenarios, i.e. a series of scenarios based on the strategic approach of

876

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

the plan as suggested in SUMP Activity 3.2, takes place [12]. However, in order to formulate resilient and realistic scenarios, one should take into close consideration the analysis of problems and opportunities, conducted during SUMP Activity 3.1. The final action of this phase is the assessment of the strategy-based scenarios, which are expected to lead to generic forecasts of the urban development patterns according to the examined urban mobility strategies. These forecasts can be exploited in the context of the SUMP Activities 4.1 and 5.1, which aim respectively at the identification of the strategic directions and the setting of specific priorities for sustainable urban mobility planning. Moreover, the demonstrative capabilities of the model can create a space for discussion among the stakeholders and the public (SUMP Activity 4.2). 3.2.2  Phase 2. Predictive (Target oriented) During the second phase, the LUTI model can be updated according to the quantified targets set by the second stage of the SUMP in order to provide more-detailed forecasts of the way that the selected measures for the enhancement of urban mobility are expected to affect the land use system. In this way the model can contribute to the SUMP’s second milestone, i.e. the identification of the suitable measures. The SUMP Activity 5.2 has the objective of developing a series of Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-bound (SMART) targets through the selection and formulation of a set of indicators. The corresponding LUTI Action aims at the model’s update according to these targets so as to be able to produce estimations of indicator values (especially the ones related to the impact of transport on land use) in different time projections. After the formulation of scenarios based on the appropriate combinations of transport-related measures and interventions, the target based model can be used to estimate the impact of these measures on the land use system and support the decision making of SUMP Activity 6.1 for the identification of the most effective measures. 3.2.3  Phase 3. Evaluation The specific phase aims at the update of the LUTI model according to the real data that derive from the regular monitoring of indicators during the stage of the SUMP’s elaboration and the provision of accurate estimations that can be used to check the progress during the stage of the SUMP’s implementation and the milestone of the adoption of the plan’s document. The SUMP Activity 8.1 refers to regular monitoring of a core set of measurable indicators for the evaluation of the plan’s elaboration. These measurements can be used as input in the LUTI Action for the update of the model. Then, the updated model can be used for the reassessment of the target-based scenarios according to real data. The estimations from the reassessment can provide useful conclusions on the progress of the plan’s implementation and the achievement of its objectives concerning mainly the goals related to urban development. Moreover, the review of the model’s assessment results during the strategic-, target- and real data based scenarios should be made in order to evaluate the progress of the plan towards the achievement of land use related objectives. 3.2.4  Phase 4. Validation The objective of the phase is the overall validation of the LUTI model in order to contribute to the SUMP’s last milestone, i.e. the conclusion of the final impact assessment, and to make the necessary changes and adjustments for its implementation in the next SUMP. Towards this purpose, the results and conclusions from the SUMP Activities: (a) 10.3 Check progress towards achieving the objectives and (b) 11.1 Update current plan regularly, should be



G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

877

Figure 4: Schematic representation of the outcomes from the LUTI model integration in relation to the SUMP’s milestones. embedded in the LUTI Action for the model’s validation. This process will ensure that the model will keep up with the whole SUMP cycle and be prepared for future use. In order to better understand how the integration process works, the following diagram depicts the relation between the main outcomes of every LUTI phase and the corresponding milestones for each SUMP stage (Fig. 4). 4  THE CASE STUDY OF THESSALONIKI 4.1  Spatial and transport characteristics of the study area Thessaloniki is the second largest metropolitan area in Greece after Athens and one of the largest cities in the wider Balkan region. The regional unit of Thessaloniki has a population of approximately 880,103 inhabitants [27]. The city’s centre, which is bounded by mountainous terrain from the north and the gulf of Thermaikos from the south accommodates a mix of land uses with the main commercial stores and services sharing the same space with dense residential uses. Nowadays, development of residential areas and commercial centres are being observed mainly at the eastern suburbs and some urban areas of the northwest, which were relatively underdeveloped until recently, while the industrial zone of the city resides at the western edge. The majority of city’s movements are made by private car as the only available public transport mode within the city is the public bus. Moreover, approximately 25% of the 2.3∙106 daily trips in the city have their origin or destination in the centre leading frequently to congestion [28]. There is an active discussion over the last years between the city’s authorities,

878

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

the stakeholders and the planners on possible solutions that can decrease private car dependency in the city. Recently, a bicycle network and a public bicycle sharing system were developed while a metro system and a seaborne transport system are under development. In the meantime, there are several urban regeneration schemes, which are being gradually implemented mainly within the city centre, which include traffic calming measures and the pedestrianisation of roadway segments. Moreover, other alternatives are being examined at the level of strategic planning, such as the expansion of the orbital road network and the development of surface railway systems. 4.2  Outline of Thessaloniki’s SUMP Thessaloniki’s SUMP was initiated in 2010 by the city’s Public Transport Authority (ThePTA) in the context of the project: ‘ATTAC’ of the European Union’s SEE Transnational Cooperation Programme [29]. The participating stakeholders comprise the public transport organisations, municipalities, institutes, technical chambers and citizens’ associations of the wider metropolitan area. The SUMP is mainly focused on the enhancement of the city’s public transport system and the counter-measures against private car dependency. The main components of the plan are the following: (a) Mobility forum with the participation of the stakeholders, (b) Internal evaluation procedures, (c) Public information and dissemination, (d) Measures for the upgrade of public and active transport and road traffic management, (e) Allocation of resources for the plan’s financing requirements, (f) Monitoring methods and indicators and (g) Establishment of a dedicated SUMP Unit. The main measures included in Thessaloniki’s SUMP comprise:

• • • • • • • •

Smart and integrated ticketing and payment. Bus rapid transit and priority at intersections. Bus feeder lines to the metro system, which is currently under construction. Promotion of a tramway system complementary to the metro system. Pedestrianization and public space regeneration. Improvement of the bicycle network and the bicycle sharing system. Operation of the seaborne transport system. Flexible road transit including innovative taxi services. Congestion charging, access control and integrated parking management policy as instruments against private car dependency. Public awareness campaigns for sustainable mobility.

4.3  Prospects for the integration of a LUTI model to Thessaloniki’s SUMP The implementation stage of Thessaloniki’s SUMP is expected to introduce a number of measures with significant effect on the city’s mobility conditions. Moreover, these measures are also due to generate an impact on the land use patterns. International literature provides us with many examples of such measures and their implicationssuch as [30, 31]: (a) An intermodal public transport system is expected to affect locational choices and land rents which are expected to increase within the areas of public transport stations, (b) Promotion of active transport is expected to increase the interaction of travellers with the adjacent land uses along their trip while drivers usually interact with the land uses located at the beginning and end of each trip, and (c) Restrictive measures for private car use combined with regeneration



G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

879

schemes within the city centre and other congested areas aims also at the upgrade of the urban environment. The determination of the aforementioned impacts on the city’s land use system secures a holistic approach of strategic planning that becomes essential due to the proposed measures and interventions for the improvement of urban mobility. The use of a LUTI model is an effective tool for the estimation and assessment of the appropriate features that can support such an analysis. In terms of the integration of a LUTI model into a SUMP, there are no functional or structural problems. Problems might occur due to reasons that are related to the functionality of the LUTI model itself. In the case of Thessaloniki’s SUMP there were some issues that are briefly presented: (a) Data acquisition issues: LUTI modelling is a quite data intensive task. Application of such a model includes calibration and validation procedures that heavily rely on data quality and availability. Despite the significant progress in data acquisition processes there is still a lot of effort to be done in order to obtain appropriate urban mobility statistics and land use data. More specifically in the case of the city of Thessaloniki two data acquisition issues arose: (i) The issue of spatial analysis unit: Most of data needed for LUTI models (i.e. socioeconomic data) is available in census tract level, provided by the Hellenic Census Bureau. On the other hand transportation data is available on different spatial analysis unit, this of Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ’s). As such a process of ‘spatial matching’ of these two spatial units should be applied in order to achieve full spatial data compatibility. (ii) The issue of in time reference: Despite the fact that most of the data needed to run a LUTI model is available there are serious issues when it comes to its temporal reference. In the case of Thessaloniki, a transportation study was conducted in 1997 and is the only available source for detailed and appropriate transport data. As such it is predetermined that any analysis would start with data that depicts the 1997 situation of the city, when meanwhile employment, household and market ‘reality’ has radically changed over the last four years, due to the economic crisis. Furthermore, the effects of economic crisis are in many ways related to the calibration of the model. Therefore, if the model has to be calibrated with 1997 data, due to data availability, it will be implicitly assumed that past urban development trends will continue to occur. (b) Usability issues: Despite that LUTI models are quite common in academia, their use in policy making and planning is scarce. This is due to the fact that potential users might not have the skills to use such models [32]. Recently there has been several efforts to develop more user driven LUTI models that account for the requirements of policy makers and are integrated in the collaborative decision making process. 5  CONCLUSIVE REMARKS In this paper there was an effort to demonstrate that integration of LUTI models into SUMPs could bring substantial benefits to the contemporary strategic planning approach. In this context it proposes a framework for the full integration of such models into a SUMP cycle. It is obvious that such integration enhances the strategic and communicative aspects of SUMPs, mainly due to the fact that LUTI models can be used as testing and evaluating tools, and as tools to communicate and ensure mutual understanding amongst involved stakeholders.

880

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Successful integration of LUTI models into a SUMP cycle is not unconditional. More specifically, it seems that there are no functional or structural integration problems per se, but problems might occur due to reasons that are related to the functionality of the LUTI model itself. These problems are mostly related to the data needed in order to run LUTI models’ calibration and validation procedures, which heavily rely on data quality and availability. Other concerns in regard to appropriate data have to do with compatibility issues, meaning that data for LUTI models must be consistent (spatially and temporal wise) with data used for transportation models within SUMP. Nevertheless, it is expected that all the above datarelated problems will not be much of an issue, since in the last decade there is significant progress in data acquisition practices. Finally it one of major pitfalls of LUTI models is their usability issues. Despite that these models are quite common in academia, their use in policy making and planning practice is scarce. This is due to the fact that potential users might not have the skills to use such models. Recently there has been an effort to develop more user driven LUTI models that account for the requirements of policy makers and are integrated in the collaborative decision making process. Summarizing, this paper advocates that integrating LUTI models in a SUMP process could significantly improve its strategic and communicative aspects. The necessary conditions for this to happen are related to certain applicability aspects of LUTI models. These include (a) data availability with certain spatial and temporal specifications (b) understanding the communicative role that a LUTI model can play and finally (c) the presence of an expert (i.e. planner) that has the ‘know how’ to facilitate the different aspects of LUTI models into the planning process. REFERENCES [1] Rodrigue, J.P., The Geography of Transport Systems, 3rd edn., Routledge Press: New York, 2013. [2] Geurs, K.T. & van Wee, B., Land-use/transport interaction models as tools for sustainability impact assessment of transport. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 4(3), pp. 333–355, 2004. [3] Driessen, P.M. & Konijn, N.T., Land-use Systems Analysis, Wageningen Agricultural University: Wageningen, 1992. [4] Newman, P. & Kenworthy, J., Sustainabilty and Cities. Overcoming Automobile Dependence, Island Press: Washington D.C, 1999. [5] Alonso, W., Location and Land Use. Toward a General Theory of Land Rent, Harvard University Press: Harvard, 1964. [6] EEA, available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/land-take-2 [7] Seiler, A. & Folkeson, L., Habitat Fragmentation Due to Transportation Infrastructure. COST 341 Swedish national state-of-the-art report. VTI publishing: Linkoping, 2006. [8] van Wee, B., Land use and transport: research and policy challenges. Journal of Transport Geography, 10(2), pp. 259–271, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0966-6923(02)00041-8 [9] Curiel-Esparza, J., Mazario-Diez, J.L., Canto-Perello, J. & Martin-Utrillas, M., Prioritization by consensus of enhancements for sustainable mobility in urban areas. Environmental Science & Policy, 55, pp. 248–257, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.10.015



G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

881

[10] Jackson, J. & Holden, M., Sustainable development compromise[d] in the planning of metro Vancouver’s agricultural lands – the Jackson Farm Case. Sustainability, 5(11), pp. 4843–4869, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su5114843 [11] Vermote, L., Macharis, C., Hollevoet, J. & Putman, K., Participatory evaluation of regional light rail scenarios: a Flemish case on sustainable mobility and land-use. Environmental Science & Policy, 37, pp. 101–120, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.08.013 [12] European Commission, A concept for sustainable urban mobility plans. Annex to the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: “Together towards competitive and resource-efficient urban mobility”. European Commission: Brussels, 2013. [13] Bührmann, S., Wefering, F. & Rupprecht, S., Guidelines. Developing and implementing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan, Eltisplus Project. Intelligent Energy Europe Programme, Rupprecht Consult: Cologne, 2011. [14] Pozoukidou, G., Gavanas, N. & Verani, E., Potential contribution of LUTI models in contemporary strategic planning for urban mobility: a case study of the metropolitan area of Thessaloniki. WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, 168, WIT Press, 2015, ISSN 1743-3509. [15] Pozoukidou, G., Land use models: review and perspective in spatial planning (in Greek). Aeichoros, 13, pp. 118–140, 2010. [16] Putman, S.H., Integrated Urban Models, Policy Analysis of Transportation and Land Use, Pion Limited: London, 1983. [17] Lowry, I.S., A Model of Metropolis, Rand Corporation: Santa Monica, 1964. [18] Lee, D. B. Jr., Requiem for large-scale models. Journal of the Americal Institue Planners, 39(3), pp. 163–178, 1973. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01944367308977851 [19] Lee, D., Retrospective on large-scale urban models. Journal of the American Planning Association, 60(1), pp. 35–40, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01944369408975549 [20] EUNOIA 2013 D2.1 Methods and tools for urban mobility policy, available at: http:// www.eunoia-project.eu/media/uploads/deliverables/eunoia_d2.1_methods_and_tools_ for_urban_mobility_policy_ed_1_11nov2013.pdf (accessed 06 March 2016). [21] Wegener, M., Overview of land-use transport models (Chapter 9). Transport Geography and Spatial Systems, eds. D.A. Hensher & K. Button, Kidlington: Pergamon/Elsevier Science, pp. 127–146, 2004. [22] Batty, M., Urban modelling. International Encyclopedia of Human Geography, eds. N. Thrift & R. Kitchin, Elsevier: Oxford, pp. 51–58, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-008044910-4.01092-0 [23] OECD, Impact of Transport Infrastructure Investment on Regional Development, OECD Publications: Paris, 2004. [24] TAG, Land use/transport interaction models, Department for Transport: London. [25] Allen, P.M. & Sanglier, M., A dynamic model of growth in a central place system. Geographical Analysis, 11(3), pp. 256–272, 1979. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1979.tb00693.x

882

G. Pozoukidou, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

[26] Debrezion, G., Pels, E. & Rietveld, P., The impact of rail transport on real estate prices: An empirical analysis of the Dutch housing markets. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 31(3), pp. 1–24, 2006. [27] EL.STAT., available at: http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYE [28] Organization for the Master Plan and Environmental Protection of Thessaloniki, General Transport Study (G.T.S) of Thessaloniki Metropolitan Area, Denco, Trademco, Infodim, Aggelidis, Truth, SDG, WS-Atkins: Thessaloniki, 2000. [29] ATTAC Project, available at: http://www.southeast-europe.net/en/projects/approved_ projects/?id=132 [30] Walsh, R., NCHRP Synthesis 436: Local Policies and Practices That Support Safe Pedestrian Environments. A Synthesis of Highway Practice, Transportation Research Board: Washington D.C., 2012. [31] Debrezion, G., Pels, E. & Rietveld, P., The impact of rail transport on real estate prices: An empirical analysis of the Dutch housing markets. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 31(3), pp. 1–24, 2006. [32] Pozoukidou, G., Utilisation of urban modeling tools in decision making processes. The TELUM case study. In The Context, Dynamics and Planning of Urban Development: a Collection of Papers, eds Y. Psycaris & P. Skayannis, Volos: University of Thessaly Press, pp. 63–84, 2008.

C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 883–893

A GIS SPATIAL ANALYSIS MODEL FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARD MAPPING APPLICATION IN ALPINE AREA C. AUDISIO1, G. NIGRELLI2, A. PASCULLI3, N. SCIARRA3 & L. TURCONI2 at University of Chieti-Pescara, Department of Engineering and Geology, Via dei Vestini, Chieti (Italy). 2CNR IRPI Torino, Strada delle Cacce 73, Torino (Italy). 3University of Chieti-Pescara, Department of Engineering and Geology, Via dei Vestini, Chieti (Italy).

1PhD

ABSTRACT This research describes an application of an existing method for evaluating landslide susceptibility in alpine contest that may be considered a useful support in better land-use planning and risk management. In order to perform the method and improve it creating landslide maps of probability, we investigated the several conditioning factors that in general affected these morphological processes. Firstly, a landslide inventory was prepared using both in-depth analysis of historical records and aero-photos (or orthophotos) investigation. Secondarily, a set of conditioning factors which may affect slope movement and failure (particularly lithology, geomorphology, land use, slope angle and aspect) was considered. Then, the method involved the application of GIS techniques, specifically, spatial Data Analysis application. The thematic maps of conditioning factors overlapping together with the support of the raster calculator allowed the susceptibility map creation. The method was applied to the Germanasca Valley, a small basin in the Italian Western Alps. This easy to use method allows one to individuate various classes of susceptibility and to identify slope, lithology and geomorphology, driven by old landslide events as the main conditioning factors. Furthermore, the individuation of area susceptible to landslides verification is strictly related to risk and, as a consequence, this method permits specific zone to be selected for detailed engineering geology studies in land-use planning. Keywords: GIS, landslides, susceptibility zonation, western alps, Italy.

1  INTRODUCTION A landslide can be defined as the movement of a mass of rock, debris or earth down a slope [1]. Landslides can have several causes, including geological, morphological, physical and human, but only one trigger. The most common natural landslide triggers include intense rainfall, rapid snowmelt, water-level change, volcanic eruption and earthquake shaking [1]. Also other kinds of phenomena like pyroclastic grain crushing, due to suction variation, may induce landslides in a volcanic area [2]. In addition, landslides represent one of the primary and serious risk factors in mountainous areas where the human impact is high, so potential landslide-prone sites should therefore be identified and monitored. The definition of a landslide risk map includes zonation showing temporal probability (likelihood) of a landslide occurring throughout an area [3]. On the contrary, the basic concept for landslide susceptibility involves the spatial distribution of landslides-prone areas without any temporal implication [4]. Tools for handling and analyzing spatial data (i.e. GIS) may facilitate the application of quantitative techniques in landslide hazard assessment and mapping [5]. The increasing use of GIS techniques since the 1980s has led to the development of methods that could address these problems [6–8]. This paper intends to deal with these problems and illustrates a method that, incorporating GIS (the software is ESRI ArcGIS ®) techniques, is also easily applicable

This paper is part of the Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Risk Analysis (RISK 2016) www.witconferences.com

© 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-883-893

884

C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

to small mountain basins. A multi-criteria evolution technique, characterized by advantages like the requirement of just few parameters and fast analysis, was selected. This method was verified on a small area in North-Western Italy: the Germanasca Valley. The resulting cartography can work at small-scale (1: 50,000 – 1:100,000) on small or medium basins, so the result may be acceptable even when various types of landslides are considered together. In addition, the subdivision need not be necessarily detailed but reliable. The map can be used not as a predictive tool, but rather to individuate a spatial prediction of landslide occurrences, so that a monitoring system started there. This can be a further valid support for local authorities, need to acquire, quickly, data and reliable technical support. 2  THE STUDY AREA The Germanasca Valley lies in the central sector of the Cotian Alps (Western Piedmont, NW Italy), bordering to the North, West and East with the Chisone Valley and to the South with the Pellice Valley (Fig. 1). It extends around 197 km2 in area. The hydrographic network has a convergent dendriform pattern. The main morphometric features are listed in Table 1. The geological properties of the study area and the chief morphogenetic processes associated are described in the next sections. Human intervention is widespread in the valley bottoms and in the mid-lower slope areas, where villages are located and the chief agro-silvo-pastoral activities are carried out. Talcum mines and quarries are also present. In the Germanasca Valley, the pluviometric regime is Prealpine continental [9]. The mean monthly rainfall has a bimodal pattern with two maxima, a higher one in spring and a lower one in autumn, and two minima, one in winter and the other in summer. Spring is the season with the greatest amount of rainfall and number of rainy days, while autumn is marked by maximum rainfall intensity. The seasonal rainfall distribution is similar throughout the basin. The average monthly temperature in Perrero station ranges from −0.1°C in January

Figure 1: Sketch map of the Germanasca Valley (Piedmont Region, NW Italy). TIN figure on the DEM 50 × 50 grid. The squares indicate the main villages of the valley.



885

C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Table 1: The chief morphometric parameters of the germanasca valley. measurements taken with gis techniques on the regional technical map, scale 1:10,000. Morphometric Parameters Basin area Basin perimeter Max elevation Min elevation Mean elevation Basin circularity Drainage density Constant of channel maintenance Number of streams Stream length Bifurcation ratio (ponderale mean) Direct bifurcation ratio (ponderale mean) Bifurcation index (ponderale mean) Number of hierarchical anomalies Hierarchical anomaly density Hierarchical anomaly index

Units

Value

km2 km m a.s.l. m a.s.l. m a.s.l.

196.86 68.23 3,060 600 1,871 0.53 3.23 0.31 1,411 635.42 3.98 3.00 0.98 1,253 6.36 1.19

km/km2 km2/km n km

a.s.l = above sea level

to 18.0°C in August (mean annual 9.1°C). The average annual days of frost is 92 [10]. An analysis of the rainfall events lasting some days was done over a span of ninety years [9, 11]. The analysis points out that the most common rainfall event has a mean duration of 3 to 5 days, with the peak day occurring between days 2 and 4. The seasonal distribution of rainfall events (for this basin, total rainfall > 100 mm) has one maximum in autumn and another in the spring. Extreme rainfall events (for this basin, total rainfall > 250 mm) last 8 days on average and most often peak on day 4 (39%). These events occurred most often in spring and autumn. 3  MATERIALS AND METHODS With this method, several thematic maps are constructed each representing a factor that conditions a landslide. The predisposing factors were chosen based on experience and knowledge of the region conditions, but an historical data landslides inventory has been added. In addition, the made widely use of GIS for analysis and map elaboration. Landslide susceptibility is determined from the preparatory variables that make the slope susceptible to failure without actually initiating it. By combining these factors with the temporal aspect of triggering variables, a map according to the risk definition can be obtained. The primary objective is to generate susceptibility maps, the method was restricted to some conditioning factors. In this study, we used geology, geomorphology, land use, slope and aspect. These factors were derived partly from survey data and photointerpretation (second data entry, Fig. 2) and partly from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM Regione Piemonte, third data entry, Fig. 2). All the combining factors were inserted in the GIS as different layers. Each conditioning factor affects the landslide phenomena with a determinate weight [1]. Therefore, a weight was

886

C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

assigned to each combining factor basing our choice on exploring possible situations in alpine area (weight range 0–1 in Table 2). Moreover, each factor includes different classes (e.g. the bedrock map is characterized by different lithologies). Each class has a different influence on landslide conditioning. We assigned a rating to each class, according to the influence that such a class has in this area. The ratings had values within a range from 1 to 10 and they are briefly specified in each class. The lower the rating is, the lower is the influence on landslide probability. Based on these ratings, through the use of GIS we converted the triggering factors from vector to raster and the GIS generated various maps, specific to each factor. We inserted these maps in a spatial analysis and we obtained a series of preliminary susceptibility maps using a simple raster calculation (addition and multiplication as in Fig. 3). Then, we added to each map the raster of landslide historical inventory: the presence of landslide increases the landslide susceptibility, its absence doesn’t affect susceptibility (feedback analysis). This process led to the generation of definitive landslide susceptibility maps.

Figure 2:  Flow chart of landslide susceptibility analysis. Table 2:  Causative factors and assigned weights for each susceptibility map.

Aspect Slope Geology Geomorphology Land use

Map 1

Map 2

Map 3

Map 4

Map 5

Map 6

0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

0.05 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.05

0.05 0.40 0.20 0.30 0.05

0.05 0.20 0.20 0.40 0.05

0 0.40 0.30 0.30 0

0 0.50 0.50 0 0

Figure 3: Sketch of the applied methodology for obtaining map 6; numbers and maps are only examples. The same sketch can be done for the other maps.



C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

887

Figure 4: The classified susceptibility maps obtained with the method for the different combination of weight assignment. Intense red color denotes higher susceptibility. These maps, however, cannot be directly used, but need to be reclassified, from high to low values, based on the frequency information from the histogram; processes directly made by the use of GIS (Fig. 4). Finally, a validation process for choosing the most reliable susceptibility map has to be done. 3.1  Landslides inventory Landslide susceptibility evaluation should be based on a detailed analysis of land dynamics and previous landslides activities. The landslide inventory derived from the analysis of

888

C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

historical data and aerial photographs. The CNR-IRPI historical landslide inventory of the Germanasca Valley spans a period from 1,763 to the present. The inventory permits the retrieval of preliminary information about landslide location and timing. The historical inventory of the study area contains reports on 153 landslide events including rock falls, planar and rotational slides, complex landslides and debris flows. Moreover, the use of historical data for analyzing geomorphological processes implies a number of problems: absence of relevant evidence (magnitude, process duration and areal distribution) and historical data are not of first hand source. The correct approach implies a logical process that allows the extrapolation of useful information from the paper documents. This process has allowed to make the records more suitable for GIS. We inserted all the information in the GIS, using a specific tool, as a point layer because it is a better way to graphically represent standard historical data [12]. Since the historical research can leave some doubts about the distribution and the areal extension of each phenomenon, aerial photographic analysis can contribute importantly to complete the historical inventory and to have landslide distribution and reconstruction of their evolution in the last sixty years. The analysis was then compared with the published information from national studies [13]. For the purposes of our study, the landslide information taken from photointerpretation was digitized as polygons. This layer was then incorporated into the geomorphologic map of the basin. 3.2  Geology The study area is located in the central part of the Western Alps where an imbricated stack of the continental crust (Dora Maira massif) and oceanic units (Piedmontese Zone) are recognizable [14]. In the upper basin of the valley there are outcrops of oceanic units (calcschists – high rating) with small but rather extensive metabasites and amphibolites (low rating). From the mid-valley to the confluence with the Chisone Stream the outcrops consist of lithotypes, such as graphitic micaschists (also with phengite, quartz, biotite and garnet), graphitic schists characterized by high foliation (low rating), fine-grained gneiss with a graphitic ­composition and metaconglomerates (medium to high rating [14]). The quaternary deposits comprise glacial deposits in the summit areas of the valley, ­particularly evident talus at the foot of rocky outcroppings and deposits resulting from fluvial dynamics (medium to low rating). 3.3  Geomorphology The Germanasca Valley is the product of fluvial and slope dynamics in glacial modeling. Traces of deposits and forms resulting from glacial modeling are now present only in the uppermost parts of the basin. The deposits and forms produced by fluvial and torrential dynamics are concentrated along rivers. Slope dynamics is the predominant modeling factor in the basin. Specifically, the characteristic geomorphologic context in which the area develops, slope steepness and its geology are among the chief reasons for the concentration of landslide phenomena in this area. About 30% of the study area is affected by the landslide. Based on aerial photographic analysis and fieldwork, the landslide inventory map, showed that most of the valley is characterized by extensive deep-seated gravitational deformations, partially reactivated as complex landslides, falls, small rock/debris slides and minor flows concentrated chiefly in stream incisions. The sectors in deep-seated gravitational deformations occupy about 30 km2 (15% of the total area), while complex landslides about 12 km2



C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

889

(6% of the total area), such as falls and toppling. The last two are very common owing to the presence of various outcrops, particularly at higher elevations. Only about 1 km2 of this area is occupied by rock/debris slides similar for flow-prone areas and soil slips. Identifying flows was very difficult because the phenomena are punctual and not so common. Since the area occupied by flow and soil slip is so small, they were not considered in the susceptibility analysis. Ratings were assigned to stable and active landslides. 3.4  Land use Vegetation cover and land use contribute less to defining landslide susceptibility than to implementing the preparatory variables listed above. Generally, barren areas are more subject to superficial erosion and wash out, whereas vegetation cover with a well developed root system may diminish processes affecting superficial soils (i.e. soil slip). The type of vegetation and its degree of density will variously influence the rate of erosion in an area. Land-use analysis was conducted using a photointerpretation study of the basin [15]. The data were analyzed, grouped according to the vegetation class morphology. In this way, five classes were defined from low to high rating: streams, lakes and urban areas, agricultural land (pastureland and sown land), thickly vegetated areas (conifer and broad-leaved wood), sparsely vegetated areas (scrubland) and barren land. 3.5  Slope angle The slope angle was obtained from a digital elevation model with a 50 × 50 m grid and using Spatial Analyst GIS extension (DEM Regione Piemonte). Slope angle varies from 0° at the valley bottom along the Germanasca Stream to over 60° along the rocky banks of the upper valley; slope angle values were grouped into 10 classes of 5°. Ratings were assigned proportionally to the values and considering that the value for 0°–5° class is inherent only to the 5° slope. 3.6  Slope aspect Slope aspect was obtained from a digital elevation model with a 50 × 50 m grid using Spatial Analyst GIS extension (DEM Regione Piemonte); slope aspect values were grouped into eight classes of 45°. The data show that the west-facing sectors (high rating) have the highest proportion of area susceptible to landslide comparing with inventory whereas those facing SE to NE (low rating) are characterized by the lowest percentage. 4  RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The process enabled us to create various maps (Fig. 4) that differed in content regarding landslide susceptibility. Then, we validated the maps to identify the best correspondence to the real situation in the study area. The first step was a qualitative validation. All maps showed that the areas near the confluence of the Germanasca and Chisone rivers belong to the lowest landslide susceptibility class. Also the main drainage network is easy recognizable: a lower susceptibility class for the river and a higher class on the side slopes. Areas affected by pronounced glacial phenomena, generally characterized by undulated morphology and low slope angle, moderate amounts of debris and classified as pastureland, belonged to a low susceptibility class on all maps with the exception of map 6. Taken together, these observations provide a first evidence for the validity of the raster calculation. The quantitative validation

890

C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

was done by calculating the number of pixels for each susceptibility class and the number of pixels actually in a landslide area for each susceptibility class; then the percentage of landslides that really occurred in each susceptibility class was calculated. The work was done for each map. The percentage of surveyed landslides emphasizes the correspondence between the evaluated and the real susceptibility, particularly for the high susceptibility classes. Map 6 has a larger high and very high susceptibility area than the other maps. Considering the representativeness of the map, the percentage ratio between the number of pixels actually in a landslide area in high and very high susceptibility class and the number of pixels in the same class in the entire basin is the lowest (40% instead of 80%–90% of the other maps). The map leads to overvalue of high susceptibility and to underestimate the lower one. The slope and geology are the main conditioning factors for landslides in the study area, but detailed geomorphological information can improve the spatial prediction. The weight assigned to the land use and the aspect does not affect the analysis substantially. Map 1 (with 0,20 weight for aspect and land-use) and map 5 (in which aspect and land use were not considered) shows a different distribution and area of susceptibility classes but almost the same percentage of surveyed landslides in each class, except for the very high value (94% and 81%, respectively). Aspect and land use are the factors that mainly conditioned shallow landslides, phenomena that are marginally present in this area, so they can be considered factors of lower importance. While, the aspect may be very important for falls, in these conditions, the elevation also has to be considered: the importance increases with altitude. All the other maps show almost the same percentage of all the susceptibility classes, map 2 presents the lowest value. This analysis is supported by the overlapping of the four different maps. The overlaying of map 2 with the others presents the lowest values. Overlaying the maps in twos, the best overlapping is represented by maps 3 and 5 (54%). The main difference is the areas at very high and very low susceptibility, which are higher in the map 3. Map 4 (high geomorphological weight) best illustrates landslide area, but it has a rough susceptibility classification for the other parts of the basin. Map 2 has the highest percentage of medium susceptibility class but does not accurately represent the low susceptibility value. Maps 3 and 5 were generated with the same slope and geomorphology weight, but different geology, aspect and land use (Table 2). Comparing the two maps, using a Spatial Data analysis in the GIS, in the part of the basin where landslides are present, the susceptibility is the same for 38%. Map 5 presents an underestimation of 58% and an overestimation of only 3%. In the part of the basin where landslides are absent, the correspondence between susceptibility in the two maps is 61% and in the map 5 the underestimation is 26%. In conclusion, the maps are both powerful, but map 3 is to be preferred, for a better conservative evaluation of susceptibility. So, in the study area, where the only slope and geology are combined the result is unacceptable. The use of aspect and land use changes the result slightly but the geomorphological information improves the susceptibility classification. A weight of 0.30 gives a reliable predictive power in the area not yet covered by landslides. One consideration concerns the geology of the areas classified as most susceptible to landslides. The high and very high classes comprised areas with geology composed of calcschists, phyllites and micaschists. Our results are in line with those from previous small-scale regional studies reporting landslide susceptible areas with geology consisting of much the same components [16]. 5  CONCLUSION Since the method was calibrated on this investigation site, it may be applied to territories where the lithological and morphological situations are similar; the alpine setting can be



C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

891

used. Furthermore, the final map can be easily analyzed also by non-specialized technicians and become a reliable tool for local authorities to individuate the risk area. Furthermore, such information could lay the basis for a more detailed study of landslide susceptibility in the area, for example, considering the different typology of landslides separately. In addition, landslide susceptibility of an unstable slope is closely correlated with diverse rock position and structure. Current ongoing studies will apply this method to map other basins in the Western Alps. The results of climate analysis studies examining rainfall characteristics, landslide and flooding [17] of the area will soon make it possible to evaluate the interaction between rainfall and landslide susceptibility. The landslide susceptibility map of the Germanasca Valley could provide a valuable reference for more accurate risk studies on site. While our study does not offer a complete solution to the problem, it may provide a useful tool for correct land-use planning and hazard management, which is of growing concern as human pressure on the environment increases. Moreover, in order to gain more insights into the risk evaluation, a subsequent step is the application of mathematical and numerical models that can be planned and focused to areas where the occurrence of landslides is most probable. The mathematical models are based on the balance of important physical quantities, closed with specific equations including the material behaviour, erosion [18], rheology. Numerical modeling is based on many different approaches, commonly very expensive by computer time point of view: Finite Element Method; Finite Difference Method and so on. However, more recently, a simplified, but reliable techniques, avoiding the cumbersome necessity to build a numerical grid, have been applied to study, in particular, fast landslides occurrence. Among these proposals the ‘mesh-less’ approach SPH (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics), seems to be very promising (among many others: [19–22]). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to thank the Comunità Montana Valli Chisone e Germanasca (Piemonte, Italy) for providing some environmental shape files. REFERENCES [1] Cruden, D.M. & Varnes, D.J., Landslides types and processes. In Landslides Investigation and Mitigation, Special Report 247, Transportation Research Board National Research Country, eds. A.K. Turner & R.L. Schuster, National Academy Press: Washington, DC, pp. 36–75, 1996. [2] Esposito, L., Esposito, A.W., Pasculli, A. & Sciarra, N., Particular features of the physical and mechanical characteristics of certain Phlegraean pyroclastic soils. Catena, 104, pp. 186–194, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2012.11.009 [3] Spieker, E.C. & Gori, P.L., National landslide hazard mitigation strategy: a framework for loss reduction. USGS Open File Report 00–450, 49, 2000. [4] Brabb, E.E., Innovative approaches to landslide hazard and risk mapping. Proceedings 4th ISL, Toronto Canada, pp. 307–324, 1984. [5] Calista, M., Miccadei, E., Pasculli, A., Piacentini, T., Sciarra, M. & Sciarra, N., Geomorphological features of the Montebello sul Sangro large landslide (Abruzzo, Central Italy). Journal of Maps, 12, pp. 1–10, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17445647.2015.1095134 [6] Clerici, A., Perego, S., Tellini, C. & Vescovi, P., A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method. Geomorphology, 48, pp. 349–364, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00079-X

892

C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

[7] Van Westen, C.J., Rengens, N. & Soeters, R., Use of geomorphological information in indirect landslide susceptibility assessment. Natural Hazards, 30, pp. 399–419, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000007097.42735.9e [8] Yalcin, A. & Bulut, F., Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and digital photogrammetric techniques: a case study from Ardesen (NE-Turkey). Natural Hazards, 41, pp. 201−226, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9030-0 [9] Nigrelli, G., Studio delle condizioni pluviometriche del bacino idrografico del Torrente Germanasca. GEAM, 111, pp. 49–56, 2004. [10] Regione Piemonte, Distribuzione regionale di piogge e temperature. Collana studi climatologici in Piemonte, Vol 1, Direzione dei Servizi Tecnici di Prevenzione, Settore Meteoidrografico e Reti di Monitoraggio - Università degli Studi di Torino, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, 1998. [11] Nigrelli, G., Analysis and characteristics of pluviometric events in the Germanasca Valley (Italian Western Alps). Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria, 28, pp. 147–158, 2005. [12] Audisio, C., Nigrelli, G. & Lollino, G., A GIS tool for historical instability processes data entry: an approach to hazard management in two Italian Alpine river basins. Computers and Geosciences, 35(8), pp. 1735–1747, 2009; doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2009.01.012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2009.01.012 [13] ARPA Piemonte, Progetto IFFI: Web-site Visited on March 20 at http://www.arpa. piemonte.it, 2008. [14] Borghi, A., Cadoppi, P., Porro, A., Sacchi, R. & Sandrone, R., Osservazioni geologiche nella Val Germanasca e nella media Val Chisone (Alpi Cozie). Bollettino del Museo Regionale di Scienze Naturali, 2(2), pp. 504–529, 1984. [15] Comunità Montana Valli Chisone e Germanasca, Piano di Bacino dei Torrenti Chisone e Germanasca, Unpublished report, p. 126, 2002. [16] Regione Piemonte, Banca dati geologica. Settore prevenzione del rischio geologico, meteorologico e sismico Italian Government Report, 1990. [17] Turconi, L., Nigrelli, G. & Conte, R., Historical datum as a basis for a new GIS application to support civil protection services in NW Italy. Computers & Geosciences, 66, pp. 13–19, 2014; doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2013.12.008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2013.12.008 [18] Pasculli, A. & Sciarra, N., A Probabilistic approach to determine the local erosion of a watery debris flow. 11th International Congress for Mathematical Geology: ­Quantitative Geology from Multiple Sources, IAMG, Liege; Belgium, 2006; ISBN: 978-296006440-7; Scopus: 2-s2.0-84902449614. [19] Minatti, L. & Pasculli, A., Dam break smoothed particle hydrodynamic modeling based on Riemann solvers. 8th International Conference on Advances in Fluid Mechanics, AFM 2010; Algarve; Portugal, 69, pp. 145–156, 2010; ISBN; 9781845644765. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/AFM100131 [20] Minatti, L. & Pasculli, A., SPH numerical approach in modelling 2d muddy debris flow. 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation Mechanics, Prediction and Assesment, pp. 467–475, 2011, ISBN: 9788895814469; doi: 10.4408/ IJEGE.2011-03.B-052. [21] Pasculli, A., Minatti, L., Sciarra, N. & Paris, E., SPH modeling of fast muddy debris flow: numerical and experimental comparison of certain commonly utilized approaches.



C. Audisio, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

893

Italian Journal of Geosciences, 132(3), pp. 350–365, 2013, doi: 10.3301/IJG.2013.01; Scopus: 2-s2.0-84886468697. [22] Pasculli, A., Minatti, L., Audisio, C. & Sciarra, N., Insights on the application of some current SPH approaches for the study of muddy debris flow: numerical and experimental comparison. 10th International Conference on Advances in Fluid Mechanics, AFM 2014, WIT Transactions on Engineering Sciences, 82, pp. 3–15, 2014; ISBN: 9781845647902; doi: 10.2495/AFM140011; Scopus: 2-s2.0-8490761123.

D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 894–907

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF URBAN SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGIES: THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCHING BEHAVIOUR CHANGE D. MÜLLER-EIE & L. BJØRNØ Department of industrial economics, risk management and planning, University of Stavanger, Norway.

ABSTRACT Implementing urban sustainability strategies has proven to be difficult. This paper aims at developing a holistic understanding of the urban sustainability concept with the help of a conceptual model, as well as offering a framework for understanding and researching the implementation of urban sustainability strategies. Here, individual behaviour change is understood as one of the main objectives of such strategies. Through a conceptual model, four types of opposing and sometimes contradictory relationships are identified: (1) between global aims and local implementation, (2) between institutional pressure and the behaviour of individuals, (3) between strategic measures and personal consequences and (4) between attitudes and behaviour. These relationships are discussed in order to illustrate stalling factors in urban sustainability implementation. Looking at behaviour change as a major goal of urban sustainability implementation, several social and individual behavioural theories are reviewed in order to construct a holistic and a compound model of the dynamics of behavioural change. By revealing a dual implementation process, consisting of provision on one side and choice on the other, we demarcate several important aspects for realising and researching urban sustainability strategies and their effectiveness. A more holistic way of assessing and monitoring the implementation of urban sustainability strategies is also proposed. The paper argues that rather than looking at the changes in the urban population’s behaviour as a result, we must view them as an internal and essential sub-concept of urban sustainability. Keywords: adoption, behaviour change, diffusion of innovations, individual and collective behaviour, public travel, urban sustainability.

1  INTRODUCTION In a conference paper presented at the Sustainable City 2014 conference in Siena, we proposed to view the concept of urban sustainability as a social innovation [1]. Our intention was to understand why the implementation of urban sustainability is slow and met with reluctance. By embracing the complexity and the many layers of the urban sustainability concept, we try to point out internal sub-concepts (e.g. sustainable transportation), as well as its relationship with other concepts (e.g. climate change, global economy, social equity). We claim that a lack of understanding of the bigger picture leads to professional fragmented implementation, and unwillingness amongst the general public to change their behaviour and lifestyles (e.g. less travel, less consumption, less energy use). In March 2015 another conference paper was submitted that reviews several behaviour change theories [2]. We find that by combining a holistic understanding of urban sustainability strategies and generating awareness for the high relevance of individual behaviour and its factors, it is possible to assess and monitor urban sustainability strategies from a different (more holistic) perspective. Therefore, this paper discusses several critical moments regarding behavioural change and proposes a compound ideological and methodical set of factors in order to realise © 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-894-907



D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

895

and research the implementation of urban sustainability strategies in concrete projects, as well as being able to assess and monitor the success of such projects. 2  THE URBAN SUSTAINABILITY CONCEPT Urban sustainability is defined as a compound concept consisting of several sets and subsets of concepts, levels, strategies and actors: Globally (in terms of aims and objectives) urban sustainability is defined as a city’s capacity to meet formal, functional, social, economic and cultural standards that enable its population to live well and thrive without negatively impacting on global environmental, social and economic conditions. Locally (strategically) urban sustainability can be described as the facilitation and coordination between formal and functional strategies, such as sustainable land use (compactness, intensity, density) and sustainable transportation as well as their integration, in addition to cyclic resource management. Furthermore, the implementation of urban sustainability depends on two concepts: the provision of sustainable infrastructure and policy by urban institutions and collective and individual sustainable behaviour by the urban population [1]. Structuring and thereby simplifying the concept of urban sustainability like this leads to a division into two arenas: the goals (meaning the intentions, aims and objectives of urban sustainability); and the more concrete implementation (in terms of means actors and effect) (Fig. 1). Because the sustainable development emerged as the World Commission on Environment Development’s response to global environmental, social and economic issues (WCED, 1989), the concept is often defined through the aim of achieving environmental balance, social justice and economic feasibility. Attempting to give these aims more substance, often the concrete objectives, such as reduction of air pollution (CO2 emission), are described.

Figure 1:  The urban sustainability concept, divided into goals and implementation (sustainable option + sustainable behaviour) (authors).

896

D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

­ owever, a continued focus on these concepts keeps the discourse both rhetorically and ideoH logically in an arena that hinders concrete actions and may lead to empty consensus [3]. The focus of this paper lies on the implementation of urban sustainability. Here, strategic decisions are the main prerequisites for realising urban sustainability. This includes modal shift, transit-oriented development, compact built environment, high population densities, accessibility, 5-minute cities, etc. Different actors such as urban planners and designers, urban policy makers and - not least – the urban population locally implement these strategies. It is therefore important to regard the collective and individual behaviour as an important factor for realising urban sustainability strategies. 3  THE INCONSISTENCIES OF URBAN SUSTAINABILITY Based on this simplified graphic model of urban sustainability, several areas of dissonance can be pointed out (Fig. 2). First, the non-conclusive relationship between global aim and local realisation; second, the non-communicative relationship between institutions and individual inhabitants; third, the con-compatible relationship between strategic/normative changes and individual desirability; and fourth, the non-commitive relationship between an individuals’ attitude and behaviour. All four presented areas of conflict can help to explain the slow and reluctant process of implementing urban sustainability, and therefore need to be addressed when implementing urban sustainability strategies. While we are looking at general areas of conflict within the urban sustainability concept, Anable et al. [4] have identified barriers for behaviour change. They range individual-subjective factors and particularly perceived behaviour control, self-efficacy, locus of control and denial among one of four powerful barriers to change. Other barriers to effective behaviour

Figure 2:  Areas of inconsistency within the urban sustainability concept (authors).



D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

897

change can be individual-objective (knowledge, habit), collective-subjective (social dilemma, shared norms, trust) or collective-objective (context, situation, communication) factors. Above, a description of the conceptual inconsistencies as we see them is presented and exemplified. 3.1  Non-conclusive relationship: global and abstract aims vs. local and concrete implementation There is a gap between the global and abstractly formulated goals and the concrete local materialisation of urban sustainability. Abstract formulations can lead to a false consensus in contrast to the contentious concrete measures that are proposed. For instance, people do not consider the global reduction of CO2 emissions when purchasing a new home. They also do not take the hypothetical relationship between building types and the reduction of demand for domestic energy and travel into consideration. There is also a lack of conclusive scientific research regarding the relationship and the effectiveness of the implemented strategies and their effect on the mentioned global aims [5–7]. This discrepancy and non- conclusiveness makes it difficult for institutions to commit to local sustainability strategies, and it makes it almost impossible for the general public to grasp and contribute to the urban sustainability discourse. There is a discrepancy between the global evidence for climate change and necessity for local alleviation and the relationship between the two. This demands action in places and by individuals that have not necessarily felt the effects of the problem. Without the immediate feeling of inconvenience, humans are unlikely to make drastic changes. This makes it difficult to get support from the broad public and is partly what causes slow progress [8]. 3.2  Non-communicative relationship: institutional change vs. individual change Many different groups of actors and stakeholders are involved in the implementation of urban sustainability. Here, another gap exists between the institutions that are deciding about sustainable strategies and the people who make changes. When for instance introducing densification strategies, institutions rarely communicate the goals and reasons behind them, while individual cannot be expected to have adequate knowledge to interpret their environmental intentions. Strategies are often normative and unpopular, and stand in stark contrast to individual desirability. Urban policy operates with positive and negative incentives, while much of planning and design practice is based on the tacit assumption that the physical environment can manipulate and facilitate certain behaviour. This reveals that there is a lack of acknowledgement of behaviour change as a major goal of urban sustainability strategies, and that open and mutual communication between different stakeholders is a prerequisite for bettering the implementation process. Therefore, awareness raising, educational programs and explicit behaviour change programs can have a good effect in individual behaviour and lifestyle changes [9, 10]. This communication is often influenced by the use of rhetoric. While institutions often use prescriptive rhetoric, such as ‘people’ or ‘they’ need to use more public transport, it is in fact ‘we’ or ‘us’. Such a rhetorical change can lead to institutions and facilitators to be forced to view themselves also as users, at the same time as the population might gain a greater feeling of ownership of such statements.

898

D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

3.3  Non-compatible relationship: strategic and normative change vs. individual desirability Another area of conflict is the dissonance between strategic choice (e.g. regarding modal shift towards public and soft travel) and the way individuals make decisions based on personal interests and premises, often without knowledge about or concern for the environmental ramifications of their choices and actions. From an urban sustainability point of view, there is no arguing that a significant modal shift is beneficial, if not necessary. For the individual, however, it is different. While rationally most people are aware that it is beneficial for the ‘greater good’ if they decide to take the bus instead of the car, it is difficult to see personal benefits. Individual choice often rests on individual benefits and costs [11]. In this way, urban sustainability on a strategic level is not compatible with and does not incorporate urban individuals and their lifestyle choices. While a more sustainable lifestyle and travel behaviour can have advantageous, it is difficult to convey this to the public [12]. This contradiction between institutional rationality and individual emotional response is a problem in the implementation of urban sustainability strategies. While peoples’ desires are individually understandable they are not collectively beneficial [13]. Thus, good urban sustainability strategies should (if possible) cater toward personal gain, such as shorter travel time, lower travel cost, more convenience, larger perceived control or better self-image. 3.4  Non-committing relationship: attitudes vs. behaviour A last gap is the non-committing relationship between individual’s attitudes and their behaviours, also known as the attitude-behaviour gap [4, 14]. While there might be a general positive attitude towards urban sustainability, this does not necessarily result in displaying the respective sustainable behaviour [15–17]. For instance, while people might be positive toward public and soft travel modes for commuting, they might still choose to car. Likewise, despite being positive toward the benefits of soft travel (such as the improvement of physiological and psychological health), people might still not choose to cycle or walk; due to other factors influencing their behaviour more dominantly. Knight describes this as being positive towards saving ‘the environment’ but sceptical towards interfering with ‘my environment’ [18]. Research shows that awareness and information are not sufficient in changing behaviour, but only in changing attitudes [4, 16], while the discussion below shows how information is a crucial first but not sufficient step in the adoption of more sustainable urban behaviour. Based on this, it is not relevant to use attitude as a relevant predictor for behaviour, as has often been the case in empirical studies regarding behaviour change. 4  THE COMPOUND MECHANISMS OF BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE The above discussion reveals that much of the concept of urban sustainability directly or indirectly aims at changing behaviour. While urban strategies, plans, designs and policies all aim at changing collective behaviour (Fig. 3), they often fail to incorporate what individual decision-making is really based upon: financial situation, life situations, age, values, beliefs, interests, emotions and habits. We argue that a truly holistic model of implementing urban sustainability, i.e. changing urban behaviour from unsustainable to sustainable, must be twofold, consisting of provision, consisting for instance of transport infrastructure, public transport service (coverage, frequency, prices), car incentives, etc., on one side and choice on the other (Fig. 4). Urban institutions need to admit to themselves and to the urban population



D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

899

Figure 3:  Traditional view of affecting behaviour in urban disciplines (authors).

Figure 4: Proposed dynamic model of affecting behaviour through urban disciplines combined with social and personal attributes (authors).

in question that they are trying to change behaviour, while the urban population need to develop a sense of responsibility and accountability. 4.1  Infrastructural aspects of behavioural change No doubt, necessary infrastructure is a prerequisite for behaviour change, i.e., modal change from car to public transport is not possible without viable public transport infrastructure in place. The same is true for domestic energy reduction through technological solutions such as low-energy housing, CHP, etc. This is not to say that people do not change without infrastructure, e.g. cycling and walking do not necessarily depend on infrastructure. However, when changing behaviour from unsustainable to sustainable, the physical framework must be in place for the individual to have a real alternative. However, the meaning of infrastructure has often been overestimated. There is no guaranteed correlation between the provision of infrastructure and an increased use. It has for instance been shown that the provision of sustainable neighbourhood features not necessarily leads to more sustainable behaviour [19, 20], but rather mixed results. On the other hand, did sustainable features have an impact on awareness, social cohesion and contact [19], which supports the need for a holistic perspective which integrates social and community aspects. 4.2  Policy aspects of behavioural change Urban policies are usually used in support of provided infrastructure. Currently, most aim directly at encouraging sustainable behaviour (subsidies in public transport for better service or pricing, tax breaks or preferred lanes for electrical cars, etc.) and discouraging from unsustainable behaviour (increased parking fees, road tax, road toll, etc.). While such positive and negative incentives can affect people’s convenience or finance, there might not be a direct link with changing behaviour due to a lack of rational decision-making (see section 4.3). In addition, financial incentives only work in societies that are sensitive to financial change. In affluent population, financial incentives will have less of an impact [21].

900

D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Another aspect is participatory and inclusive processes. While policies provide for and often dictate inclusion and participation, those are often more informative and include only a small portion of the inhabitants. We therefore argue that actively including individuals should be addressed through community aspects and decision-making as discussed in section 4.3. If ideas about changing also emerge within the urban society itself, they will feel a greater sense of ownership of the idea and possible identify themselves with the new behaviour. As such, policies together with physical and infrastructural provision are a necessary but not sufficient step in achieving behavioural change. 4.3  Socio-cultural aspects of behavioural change Choice, or the adoption of certain behaviour, is not only based on individual psychological aspects (see section 4.4), but also on the social and cultural environment the individual lives in. Theories that support social decision-making are Social Capital theory [22] and the ­Diffusion of Innovation [23]. Interpersonal theories include Triandis’ Theory of Interpersonal behaviour (TIB) [24] and Social Learning theory (SLT). For a full review see Anable et al. [4]. There is no doubt that community social and cultural aspects, such as norms, values, beliefs and moral, influence individual decision-making. These factors are often referred to as normative [25] or symbolic [4, 26, 27], since they are based on what the individual believes to be a good or the right choice as well as considering the meaning of their choice as it impacts on their social status and role. Further, some social theories (Norm Activation Theory [28] and Values-Beliefs-Norms Theory [29]) have described altruistic behaviour that is motivated by responsibility and obligation towards common welfare. Consequently, it is beneficial to take the role social groups and communities play whenever introducing infrastructural or policy change. This has for instance been studied in social behaviour change programs, for instance EcoTeams, which are found to be effective programs but generally work to isolated and small-scale [9]. Here, particularly communication seems to be a decisive factor. According to Rogers [23] diffusion theory, communication plays a strong role in spreading innovative ideas and it is defined by the limits of social interaction and time. This socio-dynamic process of diffusion of innovations can be related to using information in order to enhance awareness in urban sustainability [30]. While communication and information has previously been invalidated as sufficient ground for behaviour change [16], Rogers [23] presents knowledge as a critical first step in a five-stage process (knowledge, persuasion (positive or negative attitude), decision (acceptance or rejection), implementation (use) and confirmation). Furthermore, time is seen to be an important element in this process; both the time it takes for a member of the social system to adopt the innovation (individual) and the time it takes for the innovation to achieve a critical mass (collective). In order to achieve quicker adoption, quick diffusion of an innovation is essential. For instance, the adoption by high-status individuals of a social network as well as communication among homogeneous social groups as well as between heterogeneous social groups is discussed. Integrating socio-cultural measures has so far received little attention within urban spatial and political disciplines, and we argue that processes such as social marketing [ 3 1 ] need to become an inherent part of introducing urban sustainability strategies, infrastructure and policies.



D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

901

4.4  Personal-psychological aspects of behavioural change Drivers of urban behaviour (e.g. travel) have been thoroughly investigated [4, 16, 32], and repeatedly practical and rational drivers as strongest decision-making base have been invalidated [33] Instead, emotional and affective factors (such as freedom, control, pleasure, stress, enjoyment, relaxation, independence, etc.) have been promoted to play a decisive role [4]. In addition has the role of habitual behaviour and its resilience to change been investigated [34, 35]. Theories that investigate individual decision-making are amongst other the Deficit Model [36], the Rational Choice Theory and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) [37]. Here, rational factors, such as cost and benefit are decision basis. For a full review see Anable et al. [4]. However, often decisions are governed by emotions (affect) such as pride, happiness, satisfaction, excitement, pleasure, fear, worries, anger, stress or boredom [33, 38]. Based on their pleasure-oriented nature of such emotions they are often referred to as hedonic factors [25, 26]. According to Owens and Drifill [16] price, awareness, trust, commitment, moral obligation, cultural norms, routines, social networks, fashion, comfort and convenience are all factors that impact individual behaviour. Therefore, in order to manipulate individual behaviour effectively, the sustainable choice must be the emotionally most appealing. This is particularly important, since individuals tend to decide in favour of their emotions over reason [33]. If changing individuals’ behaviour and changing it fast is key for achieving urban sustainability, then social-cultural and possibly more important hedonic factors need to be taken into account. This may be in part through designing infrastructure, services and policy to appeal to these decision-making factors, as well as highlighting them through social marketing and public communication strategies. 5  THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS Based on the review above, we propose a stronger focus on the urban individuals and an incorporation of their decision-making and its factors into strategic approaches that aim at making cities more sustainable. Personal and psychological attributes need to be taken into account, as well as community aspects and the force of communication between social and cultural milieus (Fig. 5). In addition, the different actors implementing urban sustainability (i.e. institutions and individuals) have to engage in a mutual communication process in order to achieve a synergistic effect. Thus, an integrated approach addressing the change of urban behaviour needs to incorporate infrastructure, policy, society and the individual. While this seems obvious, previous attempts at implementing urban sustainability strategies have mainly focused on urban infrastructure and policy. They rarely include individual behaviour, other than as a measure of monitoring the success or failure of said strategies. Based on this, and based on the possibilities that reveal themselves when integrating knowledge from other disciplines, we propose that urban sustainability must be viewed as an inherently anthropocentric concept, rather than issues revolving around infrastructure provision and policy introduction. 5.1  Theoretical implications Ideologically, this means that the planning and design disciplines need to revisit their tacit hypothesis that the provision of the physical environment and political measures are

902

D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Figure 5: Proposed integrated and dynamic model of affecting behaviour through urban disciplines as well as through addressing community and personal aspects (authors). sufficient in changing community’s and the individual’s behaviour. They must gain an understanding of the importance of different factors for individual decision-making and based on this adjust strategies and their implementation. While it is possible and fruitful to cooperate with other disciplines that have greater awareness for such decision-making processes (such as environmental psychology, sociology, communication theory, social marketing, etc.), we also find that an extension of urban planning, urban design and urban policy to incorporate such sociological and psychological knowledge and understanding is useful. Thus, multi-disciplinary is necessary professionally, while urban sustainability theory and research must be extended to include and integrate such interdisciplinary fields. So, when designing and proposing urban sustainability strategies, an increased awareness for individual behaviour change as well as its crucial factors needs to become common. As Jenks & Dempsey state “ it is behaviour, lifestyles and peoples’ aspirations that are at the heart of achieving a sustainable environment” [39]. 5.2  Methodological implications The proposed twofold framework also has methodological implications. “With no clear rules that can be generally applied, local authorities need clear guidance and methods to assess the consequences of adopting different development strategies” [17]. For assessment and monitoring for instance, this means that there need to be several methods recording both infrastructure and policies, as well as recording individual choice and their motivation and intention. Over time, this will lead to a better understanding of which infrastructural change, policy change and other factors lead to successful implementation and resulting adoption of sustainable behaviour. However, as mentioned earlier, time as a relevant aspect should not be underestimated, as it seems to be the



D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

903

case that particular large-scale behaviour change (social and cultural) depends on a certain establishing phase. Both infrastructure and policy need to be assessed with the help of indicator systems. Criteria for good indicators revolve around a clear definition, data availability, measurability, data quality, understandability, change sensitivity, policy relevance, implementability and accuracy in order to evaluate the context and success of projects [40–42]. In addition, they must be regularly updated, since the purpose of indicators is to monitor change, give early warnings, set targets, review performance and give information, communicate about the implemented strategy [43]. However, “the whole issue of indicators is a dynamic one” and “indicators will need to be revised in response to changing circumstances, and as our knowledge develops” [42]. It is therefore also recommended to use a mixture between objective and subjective indicators [44]. Collective behaviour can be documented in large-scale surveys, as is for instance the case for travel surveys. It is also possible to register collective travel behaviour through ICT systems, as is already the case for instance in public transport or through road toll systems. Here, a large amount of data are generated that can prove a rather holistic picture of urban travel behaviour. This big data can give information regarding the amount of people choosing to behave in certain ways. Depending on the used methodology, there is little information shedding light on motivation, intention and reasons for the displayed behaviour. Thus, personal choice needs are explored and registered through individual questionnaires and interviews. Particularly when interest is on motivation for behaviour (i.e. which factors lead to display behaviour) interviews might be advisable. However, like any self-reported information, such data can be flawed by social desirability and lack of knowledge (memory, etc.). Another important point is to address the issue of choice and decision-making on all levels of the urban system. Just like for infrastructural and political issues, not only single communities should be addressed but the city or urban region needs to be seen as a whole. Raising awareness for behavioural aspects within planning professions, can help to ensure that the individuals choice as well as communication aspects become an integral part of urban development on all levels. In order to be able to gain a greater understanding of the relation and interaction between infrastructure, policy and behaviour, it is necessary to study the implementation of urban sustainability strategies in-depth, from a holistic point of view and preferably over time. Stavanger region, for instance, is undergoing some large scale changes, both with regards to public transport infrastructure and transport policy. County council Rogaland together with the Norwegian National Public Road Administration (NPRA) [Statens vegvesen] are currently planning ‘Bussway 2020’ [45]: 45 km of bus-only lanes that allow public transport to run smoothly through traffic congestions, according to the model of Luzern, Leeds and Bristol. The project will be finished in 2021 and 55 new high frequency and environmentally friendly busses will run on those lanes. They are also planning a ‘bicycle highway’ [sykkelstamvei] that runs parallel to the motorway, connecting the city centre with one of the largest work place concentrations in the region. In support of these infrastructural interventions, a new system of collecting road toll [Bypakke Nord-Jæren] is introduced [46], that targets commuting centres and operates with double prices during peak-hours. All these projects are planned to be finished and working within the next five years. These projects are unique in a Norwegian context and offer great research opportunities. We therefore propose a holistic assessment and monitoring longitude-study, collecting

904

D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

r­ eference data before project implementation, and then or several datasets to compare changes after project implementation. In order to gain knowledge about behavioural changes and their actual reasons it is advisable to retrieve data from one or several closed sample (for instance travel habits within certain companies). On the other hand, it might also be useful to record socio-cultural changes regarding the popularity and status of the projects over time. This can be done both based on newspaper reviews, survey or interviews. While it is too early to propose a concrete research approach, it is obvious that the implementation of these urban projects represents tremendous research opportunities. Therefore, assessment and monitoring methods for urban sustainability strategies also need to incorporate an increased awareness for individual behaviour and its factors. 6  DISCUSSION This paper covers a series of observations and reviews that lead to a better understanding of the urban sustainability concept and its reluctant implementation on one hand, as well as a deeper understanding for the meaning of individual behaviour change and its factors on the other hand. We have also briefly discussed theoretical and ideological implications of our observations for urban planning and policy disciplines, as well as possible research applications of the represented principles. The presentation of inconsistencies does not necessarily warrant for solutions. However, raised awareness in addition to continued research into the topic might be able to alleviate some of the issues that were pointed out and cause continuously slow and reluctant realisation and achievement of urban sustainability. Further, an increased focus on individual behaviour and behaviour change as the key to implementing urban sustainability strategies is important. Not only can it ensure more tailored strategies it might also create an increased focus on communicating the strategies to final users and, thus, install a sense of responsibility and ownership in the urban population. Finally, there are some theoretical and methodological implications that have so far been undercommunicated. We hope that this paper offers a basis for continued interest and research into the topic of behavioural change and its factors in relationship to urban projects. This paper is based on the conference paper Müller-Eie, D. & Bjørnø, L., “Urban sustainability as social innovation” WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, Vol 191, WIT Press, 2015, ISSN 1743-3541. It also refers to Müller-Eie, D. & Bjørnø, L., “Urban sustainability and individual behavior” WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, Vol 168, WIT Press, 2015, ISSN 1743-3509. REFERENCES [1] Müller-Eie, D. & Bjørnø, L., Urban sustainability as social innovation. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 191, WIT Press, 2015, ISSN 17433541. [2] Müller-Eie, D. & Bjørnø, L., Urban sustainability and individual behavior. WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, 168, WIT Press, 2015, ISSN 1743-3509. [3] Redclift, M., Sustainable development (1987–2005): an oxymoron comes of age. Sustainable Development, 13(4), pp. 212–227, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.281 [4] Anable, J., Lane, B. & Kelay, T., An Evidence Base Review of Public Attitudes to Climate Change and Transport Behaviour, The Department for Transport, 2006.



D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

905

[5] Williams, K., Does intensifying cities make them more sustainable? In Achieving Sustainable Urban Form, eds K. Williams, E. Burton & M. Jenks, E & FN Spon: London, 2000. [6] Welbank, M., The search for a sustainable urban form. In The Compact City: A Sustainable Urban Form? eds M. Jenks, E. Burton & K. Williams, E & FN Spon: London, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203362372_the_search_for_a_sustainable_urban [7] Breheny, M., The compact city and transport energy consumption. Transaction Institute of British Geographers, 20, pp. 81–101, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/622726 [8] Hillman, M., In favour of the compact city. In The Compact City - A Sustainable Urban Form? eds M. Jenks, E. Burton & K. Williams, E & FN Spon: London, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203362372_in_favour_of_the_compact_city [9] Davidson, S., Up-scaling social behaviour change programmes: the case of ecoteams. In Engaging the Public with Climate Change: Behaviour Change and Communication, eds L. Whitmarsh, S. O’Neill & I. Lorenzoni, Earthscan: London, 2011. [10] Weber, C. & Perrels, A., Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions. Energy Policy, 28, pp. 549–566, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00040-9 [11] Ben-Akiva, M. & Bierlaire, M., Discrete choice methods and their applications to short term travel decisions. In Handbook of Transportation Science, Springer, pp. 5–33, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5203-1_2 [12] Barrett, G., The transport dimension. In The Compact City: a Sustainable Urban Form? eds M. Jenks, E. Burton & K. Williams, E & FN Spon: London, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203362372_the_transport_dimension [13] Schelling, T.C., Micromotives and Macrobehavior, New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1978. [14] Lane, B. & Potter, S., The adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK: exploring the consumer attitude–action gap. Journal of Cleaner Production, 15(11–12), pp. 1085–1092, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2006.05.026 [15] Næss, P., Can urban development be made environmentally sound? Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 36(3), pp. 309–333. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09640569308711949 [16] Owens, S. & Drifill, L., How to change attitudes and behaviours in the context of energy. Energy Policy, 36, pp. 4415–4418, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.031 [17] Hertwich, E.G., Life cycle approaches to sustainable consumption – a critical review. Environmental Science & Technology, 39(13), pp. 4673–4684, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es0497375 [18] Knight, C., Economic and social issues. In the Compact City: A Sustainable Urban Form? eds M. Jenks, E. Burton & K. Williams, E & FN Spon: London, 1996. [19] Ornetzeder, M., Hertwich, E.G., Hubacek, K., Korytarova, K. & Haas, W., The environmental effect of car-free housing: A case in Vienna. Ecological Economics, 65, pp. 516–530, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.07.022

906

D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

[20] Williams, K., Dair, C. & Lindsay, M., Neighbourhood design and sustainable lifestyles. In Dimensions of the Sustainable City, eds M. Jenks & C. Jones, Springer: Dordrecht, 2010. [21] Müller-Eie, D., Urban environmental performance and individual behaviour: a comparison between freiburg and stavanger. In Glasgow School of Art: Mackintosh School of Architecture, University of Glasgow: Glasgow, 2012. [22] Bourdieu, P., The forms of capital.(1986). Cultural Theory: An Anthology, pp. 81–93, 2011. [23] Rogers, E.M., Diffusion and Innovation, 5 edn., New York: Free Press, 2003. [24] Triandis, H.C., Interpersonal Behavior, Brooks/Cole Publishing Company Monterey, CA, 1977. [25] Lindenberg, S. & Steg, L., Normative, gain and hedonic goal frames guiding environmental behavior. Journal of Social Issues, 63(1), pp. 117–137, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-4560.2007.00499.x [26] Schuitema, G., Anable, J., Skippon, S. & Kinnear, N., The role of instrumental, hedonic and symbolic attributes in the intention to adopt electric vehicles. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 48, pp. 39–49, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2012.10.004 [27] Steg, L., Car use: lust and must. Instrumental, symbolic and affective motives for car use. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 39(2–3), pp. 147–162, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2004.07.001 [28] Schwartz, S.H., Normative influences on altruism. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 10, pp. 221–279, 1977. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60358-5 [29] Stern, P.C., Dietz, T., Abel, T.D., Guagnano, G.A. & Kalof, L., A value-belief-norm theory of support for social movements: The case of environmentalism. Human Ecology Review, 6(2), pp. 81–98, 1999. [30] Gauzin-Müller, D., Sustainable Architecture and Urbanism – Concepts, Technologies, Examples, Basel: Birkhäuser, 2002. [31] Brannigan, F., Dismantling the consumption-happiness myth: A neuropsychological perspective on the mechanisms that lock us in to unsustainable consumption. In Engaging the Public with Climate Change: Behaviour Change and Communication, eds L. Whitmarsh, S. O’Neill & I. Lorenzoni, Earthscan: London, 2011. [32] Whitmarsh, L., O’Neill, S. & Lorenzoni, I. (eds), Engaging the Public with Climate Change: Behaviour Change and Communication, Earthscan: London, 2014. [33] Huijts, N.M.A., Molin, E.J.E. & Steg, L., Psychological factors influencing sustainable energy technology acceptance: A review-based comprehensive framework. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(1), pp. 525–531, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2011.08.018 [34] Schwanen, T., Banister, D. & Anable, J., Rethinking habits and their role in behaviour change: the case of low-carbon mobility. Journal of Transport Geography, 24, pp. 522–532, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.06.003 [35] Verplanken, B., Old habits and new routes to sustainable behaviour. In Engaging the Public with Climate Change: Behaviour Change and Communication, eds L. Whitmarsh, S. O’Neill & I. Lorenzoni, Earthscan: London, 2011.



D. Müller-Eie & L. Bjørnø, Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

907

[36] Burgess, J., Harrison, C.M. & Filius, P., Environmental Communication and the Cultural Politics of Environmental Citizenship, 1998. [37] Ajzen, I., The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), pp. 179–211, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90020-T [38] Anable, J. & Gatersleben, B., All work and no play? The role of instrumental and affective factors in work and leisure journeys by different travel modes. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 39(2–3), pp. 163–181, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2004.09.008 [39] Jenks, M. & Dempsey, N. (eds), Future Forms and Design for Sustainable Cities, Elsevier: Amsterdam, XIII, 2005. [40] Keirstead, J. & Leach, M., Bridging the gaps between theory and practice: a service niche approach to urban sustainability indicators. Sustainable Development, 16, pp. 329–340, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.349 [41] Brohmann, B., Fritsche, U., Hartard, S., Schmied, M., Schmitt, B., Schünfelder, C., Schütt, N., Roos, W., Stahl, H., Timpe, C. & Wiegmann, K., Nachhaltige Stadtteile auf innerstädtischen Konversionsflächen: Stoffstromanalyse als Bewertungsinstrument, Öko-Institut: Darmstadt/Freiburg/Berlin, 2002. [42] Tate, J., Void dwellings – a ‘headline’ indicator? Sustainable Development, 10, pp. 36–50, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.176 [43] Alberti, M., Measuring urban sustainability. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 16, pp. 381–424, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0195-9255(96)00083-2 [44] Adolphe, L., A design tool for global evaluation of urban sustainability. In PLEA Environmentally Friendly, James & James Science Publishers: Lisbon, 1998. [45] County Council, R., Bussvei 2020. 2014 20.03.2015], available at: http://www.rogfk.no/ Vaare-tjenester/Samferdsel/Bussvei-20202. [46] County Council, R., Bypakke Nord-Jæren. 2014 20.03.2015]; available at: http://www. rogfk.no/Vaare-tjenester/Samferdsel/Bypakke-Nord-Jaeren.

D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 908–921

ASSESSMENT OF AN URBAN SUSTAINABILITY AND LIFE QUALITY INDEX FOR ELDERLY D. ASTIASO GARCIA1, F. CUMO2, E. PENNACCHIA1, V. STEFANINI PENNUCCI3, G. PIRAS1, V. DE NOTTI2 & R. ROVERSI2 1DIAEE (Department of Astronautic, Energetic and Electric engineering), Sapienza University of Rome, Italy. 2CITERA, Interdepartmental Centre for Territory, Building, Conservation and Environment, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy. 3Department of Planning, Design, and Technology of Architecture, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy.

ABSTRACT The research here presented originates from some of the ongoing challenges of our society: the demographic changes and the high share of population living in urban areas. The aim of the research is the definition of an index of sustainability and quality of life for elderly at suburban scale, not only able to outline aspects related to the local territorial context but also to represent the neighbourhood level. This would provide significant added value to existing indicators that represent the quality of life for much larger areas as cities, regions and nations. Indeed, it is universally recognised that the quality of life varies quite considerably depending on whether you live in different neighbourhoods or urban areas. The index proposed with the research is elaborated on the base of objective and subjective indicators integrated with the judgment of experts, in order to give an accurate and truthful weight to each indicator. Moreover, it has been elaborated for microscale analysis, dividing urban areas into cells, in order to highlight more in detail the real needs of each specific zone. As a result, the elaborated index would be an available tool to be provided to the local public administration to facilitate and optimise the urban planning and management, prioritizing interventions on the base of the sustainability principles and subjective needs of the population, in particular of elderly. Keywords: ageing society, built environment, urban cell, urban sustainability index.

1  INTRODUCTION Although ageing is a global phenomenon, Europe is already the oldest continent [1]. In the Strategic Research Agenda of the Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) More Years, Better Lives - The potentials and Challenges of Demographic Change, it is underlined that the demographic change underway is modifying the shape of Europe. In particular, while the size of population remains stable, the average age of the population is steadily rising, due to increasing life expectancy, low fertility rates and complex patterns of migration. In the last 20 years, the median age of the European population rose by 12% and it is projected an increase of 16% by 2060. At the same time, the proportion of people over 65 years rose by 27%, while the proportion aged over 80 years is growing rapidly [2]. In Europe, in less than four decades, over a third of the total population is projected to be above 60 years of age and the ratio of persons aged 65 or older compared with the working age population is thus expected to rise strongly [3]. The ageing of populations will entail many challenges due to the growing pressures on different aspects related to society as economic performance, social and health care and public finances. The deterioration of mental and physical capacity has become a challenge of society at international level, especially due to dementia and Alzheimer’s diseases [4]. At the same time, innovative technologies have been adopted in the last years for the improvement of the health of elderly people [5]. In the long-term prospects, it is essential that older population stays healthy, independent, active and involved in families life, society and economy as long as possible. OECD studies affirm that science

© 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-908-921



D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

909

and technology, and particularly ICT applications, are focal themes to achieve these societal goals [6]. It has been stated that solutions to the challenge of the impact of population ageing on our standard of living in the future could be: tools to raise labour force participation at older ages and bridge employment. To these considerations must be added that ‘today more than half the world population lives in cities’ [8]. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) [9], in 1960, the urban population was 34% of the world total and in 2014, this percentage is increased to 34%. This figure is constantly increasing; the growth is expected to be of about 1.84% per year, between 2015 and 2020, 1.63% per year, between 2020 and 2025 and 1.44% per year, between 2025 and 2030. In 2015, about 10% of the global population (7349 millions) lived in Europe (738 million), the European population is projected to decrease between 2015 and 2050 [10]. Urban dwellers are the majority, around 75%, of the European population and urban areas are expanding across Europe with more citizens that are moving from the city centres, but urbanisation is not a simple process, the drivers of it are multiple and often interrelated, as ageing, migration or trend to smaller and more households [11]. Cities are areas that concentrate people, opportunities and solutions but at the same time condense challenges and difficulties. Elderly are particularly vulnerable to the impacts produce by an urban area. As stated in the Italian Position Paper Moving forward for an Ageing Society: Bridging the distance, [12], the increase of the elderly population entails that our society adopts a new approach. The reduction of the physical and virtual distances is a major societal challenge: for example, the distances between places of residence, employment and services; social, economic and cultural distances; distances between different generations or material and spiritual needs. The re-establishment of the appropriate distances, while preserving the necessary interconnections, is the key strategy to guarantee the societal resilience from the effect of ageing population. It is an opportunity to our society to grow as a whole. The research presented in this article arises from the abovementioned Italian Position Paper, and in particular, it examines one of the four priority areas identified in the document: the built environment. The aim of the research is to elaborate a new method for assessing life quality of elderly at suburban scale, integrating objective indicators, coming from statistical data, and subjective indicators, taking into account both the opinions of experts and elderlies. Although many life quality indices have been elaborated in literature, most of them are not specifically related to the elderly. A significant example of quality-of-life index is the Global Age Watch Index [13] which, however, defines a national framework of the older populations. In this context, the paper first highlights what are the main themes that could influence life quality of elderlies in urban areas and then, after a brief analysis of the state of the art about this topic, a new methodology for assessing life quality of aged people in cities will be presented. The last part of the paper will provide a discussion of the results obtained by testing the methodology presented. 2  ESSENTIAL FEATURES FOR AGE-FRIENDLY CITIES The ongoing significant demographic changes imply the need for a rethinking of the city in terms of greater protection of vulnerable groups of the population in order to achieve satisfactory levels of life quality. It is important to consider the connection between environment and older people in order to balance the physical and social changes associated with ageing within a flexible and evolving environment [14]. The urban living is the prevalent social framework

910

D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

for most of the world’s population, and it has the ability and strength to shape many factors within populations [15]. The creation of age-friendly cities has been promoted by the WHO as a fundamental strategy to address the challenges posed by the combining trends of demographic changes and urbanisation [16]. As stated by Fadda et al. [17], space and territory are the basis of social networks that generate collective and individual age group identities. It is proved that age-friendly initiatives in the social and physical environment and stakeholder collaborations are essential elements that will facilitate the creation of a mutually enhancing environment for older people [18]. In 2007, the WHO published a Guide for Global Age-friendly Cities. Age-friendly cities are defined as places that allow people of all ages to participate in community activities, to be treated with respect, and where who can no longer take care of themselves can find help in order to have a satisfying and decent life. The WHO has defined the term ‘active ageing’ as the process of optimizing opportunities for health, participation and security in order to enhance quality of life as people age [19]. As stated by the WHO [20], an age-friendly city considers elderly people as sources of capacity and resources, thus actively it involves and support older people through policies, services and facilities in order to enhance their quality of life. In broad terms, an age-friendly city should: anticipate, respect and take into account the needs, preferences and decisions of older people; protect the most vulnerable citizens; encourage their inclusion and active participation to community life. The WHO’s Guide proposes and analyses eight topics related to active ageing covering the features of the city’s structures, environment, services and policies that condition the senior citizens’ quality of life. Outdoor spaces, buildings and transportation concern the physical environment, while social participation, respect/social inclusion, civic participation and employment, communication/information and community support/ health services are determinant for the mental well-being, for the definition of the opportunities offered by the social environment and also for the economic implications [20]. The WHO Guide defines a framework for making informed choices and for developing flexible community assessment tools that can be tailored and adapted to local circumstances: a needs assessment identifies the gaps in and opportunities for improving a community’s age-friendliness and involves identifying the tools that you will use to collect the information, such as surveys, focus groups or questionnaires. The collected information is aimed at developing an action plan or a road map that will guide the community’s age-friendly planning. The present research elaborates a checklist on the base of the WHO age-friendly cities recommendations, integrating it into a methodology for the definition of a urban sustainability and life quality index for elderly (see Section 4). 3  STATE OF THE ART The background of this research concerns two main areas of intervention: quality of life and urban environments, connected by a common subject of interest, the elderly. The main and most significant initiatives in Europe related to these aspects are three Joint Programming Initiatives (JPI). The JPI ‘More Years Better Lives, The potentials and Challenges of Demographic Change’ that is based on a transnational and multi-disciplinary approach in order to find solutions and opportunities from the underway demographic change. It envisages five working groups on the issues: health and performance; welfare and social systems; work and productivity; education and learning; housing, environment and mobility. Furthermore, it explores four overlapping domains: quality of life, health and well-being;



D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

911

economic and social production; governance and institutions; sustainable welfare. The JPI called ‘Neurodegenerative Disease Research’ that faces the challenge of neurodegenerative diseases. The purpose of this JPI is to find causes, develop cures and appropriate ways to care, with the aim of give a boost to the definition of solutions to reduce the symptoms of the disease and the social and economic impact for patients, families and healthcare systems. Finally, the JPI ‘Urban Europe’ that arises from the need to contrast the challenges related to urban areas that society will face. The aim of the JPI ‘Urban Europe’ is to create attractive, sustainable and economically feasible urban areas. In particular, it promotes the transformation of urban areas into centres of innovation, sustainability and technology, with intelligent transport and logistic systems, promoting social cohesion and integration, the reduction of the ecological footprint and the climate neutrality. In 2014, the Committee of Ministers of EU Member States adopted a recommendation on the promotion of human rights of older persons, the purpose of which is to promote, protect and ensure the full and equal enjoyment of all human rights and fundamental freedoms by all older persons and to promote respect for their inherent dignity [21]. In the Recommendation, it is stated that elderly representative organisations should be consulted in case of adoption of measures that have an impact on the enjoyment of their human rights. A significant European ongoing project is The Dublin City Age-Friendly Strategy 2014–2019: it is conceived as an answer to the ‘Declaration on Age-friendly Cities and Communities in Europe’ signed in Dublin by the EU representatives in 2013. The Dublin Declaration frames, the commitment to meet the needs of the increasing elderly population through a more inclusive community and urban environment sharing principals, values and approaches. The Dublin municipality is actuating the strategy, composed by nine objectives and five action plans [22]. The Swedish Symbio City is a conceptual scenario aimed at the urban sustainable development through the promotion of a holistic, integrated and multidisciplinary method to be applied by cities that want to create quarters. The quality of life of citizens, especially the most fragile, is the ultimate goal at the centre of the model, including health, comfort and safety [23]. More focused on the residential needs of the elderlies is the work of the International Longevity Centre and Habitneg Housing Association (United Kingdom): they are developing and experimenting design criteria to build age-friendly houses and urban environments [24]. At national level is important and significant the Italian Position Paper Moving Forward for an Ageing Society: Bridging the Distances, which illustrates the harmonisation of technology and humanity, and the reduction of scale of the community, in order to induce it to perceive the real needs of citizens, ensuring the resilience of our society to the ageing population. In addition, a unique project in the world is the ‘Train the brain’ project of the Italian National Research Council, realised by prof. Maffei. This initiative has the purpose of verifying the ability of adequate brain stimuli, such as physical and intellectual activities, to change the course of the most common neurodegenerative diseases. Nayolor et al. [25] and Sun et al. [26] highlighted the importance of analysis of both objective factors (as health status, behavioural and social–psychological aspects that are objectively and statistically measurable) and subjective factors (as the perceived ones) for assessing quality of life of elderly people. In addition, Yung et al. [27] affirmed that the planning of public open spaces in urban renewal districts should address the special social needs of the relatively concentrated elderly population. Finally, a Significant Bilateral Project about sustainable quality of life in urban areas is the So.UR.CE. (Sustainable Urban Cells) project, which was approved within the Executive Programme on Scientific and Technological Cooperation between the Italian Republic and the Kingdom of Sweden and financed by the Italian

912

D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Ministry for Foreign Affairs jointly with the Ministry of Education, Universities and Research. The purpose of the So.UR.CE. project was to develop guidelines and policies at microscale level (urban cell), in order to rethink the urban areas and the integrated design of building systems, with the goal of energy saving and environmental sustainability, in order to improve the quality of life of all citizens, including the elderlies [28]. The theoretical model and methodology developed by the project have been translated into operational tools for the public administration providing concrete support to the process of planning, financing and implementation of measures needed to improve the quality of life and environmental sustainability in urban areas [29, 30], with particular regard to natural protected areas [31–33]. The studies on age-friendly cities and communities have given rise to researches that have mainly produced a range of descriptive strategies or practices, but there is a lack of documentation on the effectiveness of these approaches [18]. The evaluation of age-friendly initiatives can be facilitated by the availability of tools based on indicators through tracking and benchmarking [34]. 4  METHODOLOGY FOR THE DEFINITION OF A URBAN SUSTAINABILITY AND LIFE QUALITY INDEX FOR ELDERLY The main philosophical approaches to quality of life define the good life differently: (1) religious or philosophical norms; (2) satisfaction of preferences; (3) subjective well-being [35]. The expression quality of life is used by most persons as goodness of life within the environment [36], but the standard indicators of the quality of life are related to all the aspects of life as wealth, employment, built environment, health, education, recreation and leisure time, and social belonging [37]. Many disciplines have adapted the definition of quality of life to their research domain, but the understanding about it should be extended and integrated to other disciplines because it is a multifaceted concept [38]. In this paper, quality of life is considered as dependent on the fulfilment of material and intangible needs [12]. Both categories include basic needs that must be met in order to guarantee at least the minimum standards of quality of life, considering physical and mental components [26]. Taking into account such aspects, it is possible to give an objective evaluation of the quality-of-life levels. However, at the same time, the concept in question has a ­significant subjective component, since it is the individual who establish, according to his own judgment, what makes his own life pleasant, rewarding and satisfying. In particular, in order to enhance their quality of life, aged people need to live in urban areas with services, initiatives and features for optimizing their health, security perception and perceived well-being [25, 27]. Therefore, the elaborated index includes: objective indicators, statistical and literature data about the analysed areas; subjective indicators, obtained asking opinions to the elderly about their needs and priorities; judgement of experts, whose expertise is needed for giving a truthful weight to each indicator [39]. Moreover, an added value of the index is that it is elaborated for microscale analysis, dividing urban areas of interest into urban cells [28] in order to highlight real needs of each specific subzone. In particular, the elaborated Life Quality Index (LQI) derives from the average value of the subindices described in the following subparagraphs: OII, the Objective Indicators Index and SII, the Subjective Indicators Index, as reported in eqn (1).

LQI = (OII + SII ) / 2(1)



D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

913

4.1  Objective indicators analysis A first analysis took into account the main objective indicators, whose values are available in official databases at microscale [40], considering five broad areas (quality of life; business and labour; services and environments; population and leisure) included in two main streams: elderly quality of life and key features of urban environment. For each of the two main aspects, the indicators essential to consider have been selected in order to make an urban area age friendly as housing, climate, structures, urban green areas, recycling, population density and birth rate (Table 1). The indicators analysed in the research were selected from a set of objective indicators used nationally to assess the quality of life in urban areas [40], on the base of a set of parameters considered fundamental to evaluate the age friendliness of a city [20]. In details, we started to elaborate the methodology proposed analysing indicators that are referred to the quality of life and to the total population. Later, we took into account the main topics developed by WHO [20], whose assessment is necessary to make a city an age-friendly city, in order to consider only the parameters significant for an age-friendly urban area. In addition, for each indicator, it was evaluated the percentage change (PC, Table 1) to eliminate the different weight of any indicator due to the different unit of measurement as well as the different order of magnitude. It has been calculated comparing the values of each parameter with the national average of the same indicators (eqn (2), where ‘lo’ and ‘hi’ indicate the lower and the higher values, respectively).

PC = 100 −

lo ⋅ 100 (2) hi

As used by authors in a previous similar research [41], the final score varies between −3 and +3 depending on the positive or negative change compared to the national average (positive values when the situation in the urban cell is better than the national average). This approach allows to eliminate the differences coming from the different order of magnitude of each considered parameter. It is necessary to evaluate the national average in order to make a comparison between different urban areas and to identify the major criticalities of a specific zone considered. If the variation is greater than 15% will be assigned the value ±3, depending on whether the situation of the urban cell is better or worse than the national average. For variations from 10 to 15%, the score will be ± 2, from 5 to 10% it will be equal to ± 1, while for variations below 5%, the final score will be zero. As reported in eqn (3), the OII has been obtained standardizing in a range from −100 to 100 the sum of each indicator final score, according with three previous studies [42, 43] where different indicators have to be compared for the elaboration of a final single index which includes different parameters. i =16

∑ scores

OII = 100 ⋅

i =1

 i =16   ∑ scores   i =1  max

(3)

4.2  SII - Subjective indicators analysis The analysis of subjective indicators consist in a double scale analysis plus experts opinions. It includes 14 indicators that are submitted to the judgment of the elderly population of the

914

D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Table 1: scheme for a calculation of the OII in a pilot urban cell. Pilot urban cell Working age population / elderly population (%) Climate - Annual thermal excursion (°C) Health - Hospital emigration rate (%) Population density of urban areas (inhabitants / km²) Elderly Birth-rate (births per 1,000 quality of life people) Young people (% of aged under 25) Bookshops (per 1,000 people) Events and shows (per 1,000 people) Restaurants and coffee shops (per 1,000 inhabitants) Key features House price (€/m2) of the urban environment Broadband coverage (%)

National Percentage average change

Score (from −3 to +3)

57,00

47,30

17,0

3

16,00

22,39

−28,5

3

100,00

9,20

−90,8

−3

1.555,00 2.220,00

42,8

3

10,20

8,63

15,4

3

28,00

25,30

9,6

1

0,00

0,08

100,0

−3

98,00

63,63

35,1

3

7,20

6,15

14,6

2

2.600,00 2.165,89

16,7

3

100,00

92,11

7,9

1

Cycle paths (meters per 1,000 inhabitants)

0,00

41,60

100,0

−3

Charging stations managers

0,00

1,00

100,0

−3

38,00

33,40

12,1

2

2,00

1,74

−14,9

2

58,00

106,40

45,5

−3

Recycling (%) Facilities for children (municipal crèches per 10,000 inhabitants) Urban green areas (m2 per inhabitant) Total scores

11



D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

915

analyzed urban cell. The methodology foresees that a sample of retired people that live in the analyzed urban cell assign for each indicator a value of satisfaction. In particular, it was asked to a statistically significant number of retired people to attribute two different weights to each indicator with reference to the urban cell where they live: a satisfaction degree, ranging from −3 to +3, called ‘E’ Subjective Evaluation, and a value of Subjective Importance (Is), ranging from 0 to 5. The feedback on the citizens satisfaction (E) are computed in the final index without any alteration while it is necessary reflect on the section related to the importance and weights to be assigned to each of the 14 indicators. In fact, it is well known that there are different criterion of allocation of weights to the parameters; it is possible, for example, rely solely on the judgment of users (risking to elaborate a subjective assessment limited to personal experiences) or on the evaluation carry out by a pool of technicians and scientists (getting more balanced values but with the possibility to not represent the sensitivity of local users). Considering the two options described above, in the presented research it was chosen to adopt a methodology able to take into account both components, attributing averaged weights called ‘Iw’ (Weighted Importance) obtained considering to the same extent the views expressed by the experts and those resulting from the submission of questionnaires to the elderlies (Table 2). Each Individual Evaluation Index (IEI) was obtained standardizing from −100 to 100 the products of E and Iw, using the same approach of eqn (3). Then, by means of the same standardisation method, the global Subjective Indicator Index (SII) was obtained standardizing from −100 to 100 the sum of each IEI, as reported in eqn (4). i =13

∑ IEI

SII = 100 ⋅

i =1 i =13

i

(4)

   ∑ IEI   i =1  max 4.3  LQI – Life quality index assessment For each analysed suburban area, according to eqn (1), the overall Life Quality Index (LQI) derives from the average values of the objective (OII) and subjective (SII) indicators indexes. Therefore, in order to integrate these different values, the total scores of OII and SII have been standardised in a range from −100 to 100, with the values of ±100 assigned to the highest or lowest possible value. In particular, these standardisations have been calculated as reported in eqns (3) and (4). 5  FIELDS OF APPLICATION AND CASE STUDIES EXPECTED IN FUTURE This methodology was designed for a microscale analysis, in order to have an index for each urban cell. An urban cell is an elementary form of territory within which plan, design, implement and manage the interventions of urban, energetic, natural resources and socioeconomic redevelopment [28]. The subdivision of an area in urban cells allows to analyse the needs of the elderly people at suburban microscale in order to identify local intervention for improving their quality of life; moreover, it permits to design interventions in small portions of the city comparing life quality indices and criticalities of different zones of the same city. The quality of life depends on whether you live in a major European city, even more so if we consider distinct urban areas forming part of the same Province.

916

D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Table 2: Scheme for a calculation of the SII in a pilot urban cell. Iw Is Ie expert E subjective weighted subjective importance evaluation importance importance (from (from (from (from 0 to 5) −3 to +3) 0 to 5) 0 to 5)

Macroareas

Elderly quality of life

E x Iw

Safety and security 1 perception

5

5

5.0

5.00

Purchasing power

0

4

3

3.5

0.00

Family relationships satisfaction

3

5

5

5.0

15.00

Social relationships −1 satisfaction

3

4

3.5

−3.50

Healthcare satisfaction

5

4

4.5

−9.00

0 Satisfaction of basic needs services (supermarket, pharmacy, etc.)

5

4

4.5

0.00

1

2

3

2.5

2.50

2

1

3

2.0

4.00

−2

2

3

2.5

−5.00

Satisfaction of accessibility of places

−1

3

3

3.0

−3.00

Satisfaction of urban traffic

−3

3

2

2.5

−7.50

Public transport satisfaction

1

2

3

2.5

2.50

Dwelling liveability and comfort

0

2

3

2.5

0.00

Services for culture and leisuresatisfaction Key features Travels and of the urban holidays environment Perception of urban green

Total score

−2

1.00



D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

917

The developed methodology can be applied to any urban areas of different size (number of inhabitants) because each reference territory is divided into urban cells. The urban cells are areas characterised by homogeneous characteristics (social, environmental, cultural, economic, demographic) with a population density of between 1500 and 3000 inhabitants. As case study, we have analysed the following Italian municipalities: Trevignano (5000 inhabitants); Ladispoli (50,000 inhabitants, Fig. 1); Rimini (100,000 inhabitants); Florence (380,000 inhabitants); Rome (3,000,000 inhabitants). As tested in other research studies about environmental management and impact factors analysis of the same research team [44–47], GIS software will be used for the elaboration geographic databases useful for identifying areas characterised by critical values. As regards the number of persons interviewed, we have considered a sample of 130 people for each municipality. This number was determined on the base of two aspects: the sample size was of 600 residents in each of the 107 provinces in the research on the index of quality of life elaborated by Il Sole 24 ore [48]; considering the year 2015 the Italian population over the age of 65 is the 21.7% of the total population [40]. 6  CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT This study’s main objective was to help broaden the knowledge of the condition of older people by providing a tool to detect it and support the identification of interventions, aimed to higher levels of well-being of the elderly. The review of the literature on age-friendly initiatives, concerning the social and physical environment, demonstrates that multi-stakeholder collaborations are important factors that will help to build a mutually enhancing environment

Figure 1: urban cells delimitation in Ladispoli town.

918

D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

for older people [18]. In particular, city planners, policy makers and research institutions should be encouraged to take a proactive approach and engage with the older people themselves to create age-friendly cities. The first goal is the knowledge of their current quality of life and their needs in order to develop specific initiatives. It is particularly important to consider the cultural and socio-economic influences of the ageing local population when determining measures, programs and activities. The use of indicators was recommended in the literature as a way of collecting expectations and evaluating the principals deficiencies in urban environments. Indicators are also helpful to assess outcomes and effectiveness of interventions and activities [48, 49]. In the setting of investigations and age-friendly interventions, the most part of researches and experiences are limited to small older person communities in small towns or districts of a city or they consider the city as whole, ignoring that they are a diverse mix of communities including different social, cultural, economic and ethnic groups. Moreover, cities are composed by various zones with their own physical characteristics and different level of quality of life. Through the aggregation of several urban cells, basic modules in which is divided a city, it is possible to take into account the specific needs and features of a limited urban area and, after the combination, outline a general overview of the city, in order to develop programs involving different scales. Next steps of this research are: carry out interviews to privileged witnesses, submit to elderly in the above urban contexts a specific questionnaire to fill in, collect data and elaborate the results. Urban planning represent definitely one of the most significant areas of use of social indicators, and, to be qualified as sustainable, it must take into equal consideration economy, society and environment through an integrated approach. The proposed life quality index can be a tool to provide to local public administrations in order to plan the management of their areas by organizing interventions on the basis of the subjective and objective needs of the elderly population. Further research that considered different communities and different urban environments would allow decision and policy makers to explore how ageing affects these settlements and whether age-friendly interventions need to be adjusted to ensure success. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was carried out within the significant bilateral project PRACTICE (Planning Rethinked Ageing Cities Through Innovative Cellular Environments), financed by the Italian Ministry for Education, Universities and Research (MIUR) under the Executive Programme on Scientific and Technological Cooperation between Italian Republic and the Kingdom of Sweden for the years 2014–2016. REFERENCES [1] Neyer, G., Andersson, G., Kulu, H., Bernardi, L.&Bühler, C. (eds), The Demography of Europe, Springer, 2013. [2] Eurostat, Active Ageing and Solidarity Between the Generations: a Statistical Portrait of the European Union, 2012, Publications Office of the European Union: Luxembourg, 2011. [3] Cuaresma, J.C., Loichinger, E. & Vincelette, G.A., Aging and income convergence in Europe: A survey of the literature and insights from a demographic projection exercise. Economic Systems, 40(1), pp. 4–17, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.07.003



D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

919

[4] EU Joint Programme. Neurodegenerative Disease Research, Why choose neurodegenerative diseases?available at: http://www.neurodegenerationresearch.eu/about/why/ [5] Jouin, M., Gouriveau, R., Hissel, D., Péra, M.C. & Zerhouni, N., Degradations analysis and aging modeling for health assessment and prognostics of PEMFC.Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 148, pp. 78–95, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.12.003 [6] OECD, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2014, OECD Publishing: Paris, 2014. [7] Smaliukiene, R. & Tvaronaviĕienė, M., Bridge employment: an opportunity for aging society.19th International Scientific Conference, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences,156, pp. 388–391, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.208 [8] United Nations, World’s Population Increasingly Urban with More Than Half Living in Urban Areas, UN: New York, 2014. [9] World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory data, World Health Organization: Geneva, 2014. [10] United Nations, World Population Prospects – The 2015 Revision, UN: New York, 2015. [11] European Environment Agency, Ensuring quality of life in Europe’s cities and towns, EEA Report No 5/2009, Copenhagen, 2009. [12] Presidenza Italiana del Consiglio dell’Unione Europea e Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca. Moving forward for an Ageing Society: Bridging the Distances, Italian position paper, Palombi: Roma, 2014. [13] Global AgeWatch Index 2015, available at: http://www.helpage.org/global-agewatch/ [14] Beard, J.R. & Petitot, C., Ageing and urbanization: Can cities be designed to foster ­active ageing? Public Health Reviews, 32, pp. 427–450, 2010. [15] Galea, S. & Vlahov, D., Urban health: Evidence, challenges, and directions.Annual Review of Public Health, 26, pp. 341–365, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.26.021304.144708 [16] World Health Organization, Health 2020: a European Policy Framework Supporting Action across Government and Society for Health and Well-Being, World Health Organization: Geneva, 2012. [17] Fadda, G., Cortés. A., Olivi, A. & Tovar, M., The perception of the values of urban space by senior citizens of Valparaiso. Journal of Aging Studies, 24, pp. 344–357, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaging.2010.07.001 [18] Steels, S., Key characteristics of age-friendly cities and communities: A review.Cities, 47, pp. 45–52, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.02.004 [19] World Health Organisation, Active Ageing: a Policy Framework. World Health Organisation: Geneva, 2002. [20] World Health Organisation, Global Age-friendly Cities: A Guide, World Health Organisation: Geneva, 2007. [21] Council of Europe. Recommendation CM/Rec(2014) of the Committee of Ministers to Member States on the Promotion of Human Rights of Older Persons, Council of Europe: Bruxelles, 2014. [22] Dublin Municipality, Dublin city Age Friendly Strategy 2014-2019, Dublin, 2014. [23] Ranhagen, U. & Groth, K., The Symbio City Approach, a Conceptual Framework for Sustainable Urban Development, SKL International:Stockholm, 2012.

920

D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

[24] International Longevity Centre UK, Building our Futures: Meeting the Housing Needs of an Ageing Population, London, 2006. [25] Naylor, M.D., Hirschman, K.B., Hanlon, A.L., Abbott, K.M., Bowles, K.H., Foust, J., Shah, S. & Zubritsky, C., Factors associated with changes in perceived quality of life among elderly recipients of long-term services and supports. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 17(1), pp. 44–52, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jamda.2015.07.019 [26] Sun, W., Aodeng, S., Tanimoto, Y., Watanabe, M., Han, J., Wang, B., Yu, L. & Kono, K., Quality of life (QOL) of the community-dwelling elderly and associated factors: A population-based study in urban areas of China. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, 60(2), pp. 311–316, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.archger.2014.12.002 [27] Yung, E.H.K., Conejos, S. & Chan, E.H.W.,Social needs of the elderly and active aging in public open spaces in urban renewal.Cities, 52, pp. 114–122, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.11.022 [28] Cumo, F., Astiaso Garcia, D., Calcagnini, L., Rosa, F. & Sferra, A.S., Urban policies and sustainable energy management. Sustainable Cities and Society, 4, pp. 29–34, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2012.03.003 [29] Astiaso Garcia, D., Cumo, F., Giustini, F., Pennacchia, E. & Fogheri, A.M., Ecoarchitecture and sustainable mobility: an integrated approach in Ladispoli town. WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, 142, pp. 59–68, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/ARC140061 [30] Astiaso Garcia, D., Cumo, F., Pennacchia, E. & Sforzini, V., A sustainable requalification of bracciano lake waterfront in Trevignano Romano. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning,10(2), pp. 155–164, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/SDP-V10-N2-155-164 [31] Cumo, F., Astiaso Garcia, D., Stefanini, V. & Tiberi, M., Technologies and strategies to design sustainable tourist accommodations in areas of high environmental value not connected to the electricity grid. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 10(1), pp. 20–28, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/SDP-V10-N1-20-28 [32] Bruschi, D., Astiaso Garcia, D., Gugliermetti, F. & Cumo, F., Characterizing the fragmentation level of Italian’s National Parks due to transportation infrastructures. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 36, pp. 18–28, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.02.006 [33] Astiaso Garcia, D., Bruschi, D., Cinquepalmi, F. & Cumo, F., An estimation of urban fragmentation of natural habitats: Case studies of the 24 italian national parks.Chemical Engineering Transactions, 32, pp. 49–54, 2013. [34] Feldman, P.H. & Oberlink, M., The advantage initiative:developing community indicators to promote the health and well being of older people. Family & Community Health, 26, pp. 268–274, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00003727-200310000-00004 [35] Diener, E. & Suh, E., Measuring quality of life: economic, social, and subjective indicators. Social Indicators Research, 40, pp. 189–216, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006859511756 [36] Brown, R.J.&Brown, I., The application of quality of life. Journal of Intellectual Disability Research, 49(10), pp. 718–727, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2788.2005.00740.x



D. Astiaso Garcia, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

921

[37] Gregory, D., Johnston, R.&Pratt, G. (eds), Quality of life. In Dictionary of Human Geography, Wiley-Blackwell:Oxford, 2009. [38] Mohit, M.A., Quality of life in natural and built environment -an introductory analysis. AMER International Conference on Quality of Life 2013, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 101, pp. 33–43, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.07.176 [39] Guidi, G., Gugliermetti, F., Astiaso Garcia, D. & Violante, A.C., Influence of environmental, economic and social factors on a site selection index methodology for a technological centre for radioactive waste management. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 18, pp. 505–510, 2009. [40] Tuttitalia.it Statistiche Demografiche, Struttura della popolazione dal 2002 al 2015, available at: http://www.tuttitalia.it/statistiche/indici-demografici-struttura-popolazione/ [41] Cumo, F., Di Matteo, U. & Rosso, M., Predisposizione di una scheda tecnica per la valutazionepreliminare delle condizioni di sicurezza dei lavoratori e dei fruitori degli ambienti espositivi. Acts of the 61° Congresso Nazionale della Associazione Termotecnica Italiana, I, 2006. [42] Astiaso Garcia, D., Cinquepalmi, F. & Cumo, F., Air quality in Italian small harbours: A proposed assessment methodology. Rendiconti Lincei, 24(4), pp. 309–318, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12210-013-0254-0 [43] Astiaso Garcia, D., Cumo, F., Gugliermetti, F. & Rosa, F., Hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) risk assessment along the Italian coastline. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 32, pp. 115–120, 2013. [44] De Santoli, L., Cumo, F., Astiaso Garcia, D. & Bruschi, D., Coastal and marine impact assessment for the development of an oil spill contingency plan: The case study of the east coast of Sicily. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 149, pp. 185–196, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/cp110241 [45] Cumo, F., Cinquepalmi, F. & Astiaso Garcia, D., Data gathering guidelines for the mapping of environmental sensitivity to oil spill of the Italian coastlines. WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, 99, pp. 119–125, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/CENV080111 [46] De Santoli, L., Astiaso Garcia, D. & Violante, A.C., Planning of flood defence management and rehabilitation of the natural habitat in the downstream part of the river Tiber. WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, 100, pp. 25–34, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/GEO080031 [47] Gugliermetti, F., Cinquepalmi, F. & Astiaso Garcia, D., The use of environmental sensitivity indices (ESI) maps for the evaluation of oil spill risk in Mediterranean coastlines and coastal waters. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 102, pp. 593–600, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/sdp070572 [48] Il Sole 24ore, IPR Marketing, Dossier sulla Qualità della vita 2007, available at: http://www2.iprmarketing.it/file/dossier%20qualitt%20vita%202007%20-%20il%20 sentiment%20ipr.pdf [49] Beard, J.R. & Petitot, C., Ageing and urbanization: Can cities be designed to foster active ageing? Public Health Reviews, 32, pp. 427–450, 2010.

J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 922–932

MEASUREMENT OF SYSTEM COORDINATION DEGREE OF CHINA NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES J.X. WU, X.M. WANG*, X. WANG & W.J. PENG School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China.

ABSTRACT Local governments in China have been presented with an opportunity to become more sustainable through the program of China National Sustainable Communities (CNSCs). This program is aimed at guiding CNSCs toward sustainable development among resources, economy, environment and society. This article is focused on coordinated development patterns of CNSCs, in which the integrated coordination of CNSCs was analyzed. The entire process of the coordinated development of CNSCs being taken as object of study, the concept of coordination degree for CNSCs was proposed and a coordination degree evaluation system framework for CNSCs was built, which was divided into four subsystems, namely resource, economic, environment and social subsystems. Furthermore, a coordination degree evaluation indicator system for CNSCs was set up and the index weight was calculated based on component importance with the method of Principal Components Analysis used for data analysis. Finally, an evaluation model for coordination degrees of CNSCs was established. Besides, a hierarchy for coordination degrees to evaluate sustainable development levels was also set up. For application of the proposed model and the hierarchy for coordination degrees of CNSCs, two national sustainable communities, Chengmai county and Baisha county in Hainan Province, were analyzed for case study. Keywords: China National Sustainable Communities, construction, coordination degree, evaluation.

1  INTRODUCTION The traditional pattern of industrialization and urbanization in China, characterized by high input, consumption and emission, is not able to meet the needs of development. There is an urgent demand to explore new development patterns, which can help achieve coordinated development among resources, economy, environment and society. As a practice of sustainable development strategies in China, the program of China National Sustainable Communities (CNSCs) has received increasing concerns from governments and experts. In 1986, CNSCs was introduced by the government of China as a national program for comprehensive demonstration of sustainable development. This program is aimed at exploring mechanisms and patterns for coordinated development among resources, economy, environment and society in different types of regions and providing demonstrations for implementation of sustainable development strategies [1, 2]. It allows mechanism innovation and decision making by local governments, combined with local characteristics, to correct and reduce contradiction and incongruity in the process [3]. Sustainable development is a crucial and necessary choice for China. As a sustainable development demonstration, the program of CNSCs has achieved an increasingly significant progress over 30 years. By 2015, the program of CNSCs has already developed into an enormous network platform for sustainable communities with 189 CNSCs distributed in 31 provinces and 145 cities in China. Figure 1 shows the geographical distribution of CNSCs. China is exploring theory and practice actively in the fields of addressing urban climate change and sustainable development [4]. Based on the characteristics of China, experts

© 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-922-932



J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

923

Figure 1:  Distribution of CNSCs in China.

c­ onducted extensive related research from perspectives of urban planning, building design, transportation planning and social participation [5, 6]. Some practical theories and technologies applied to China were presented, which provided theoretical and technical supports for the planning and construction of CNSCs. Monitoring and evaluating the status and degree of sustainable development were not only the basis for integrated decision-making and coordination management mechanism of sustainable development but also the foundation for implementation of sustainable development strategies [7]. Coordinated development is the core content of sustainable development and the evaluation of coordination degrees is applicable to the sustainable assessment of urban ecological systems and economic systems [8]. The research on coordinated development mechanisms and evaluation methods for coordination degrees of CNSCs contributes to tackling sustainable-related problems in China.

924

J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

2  METHODOLOGY 2.1  Definition of Coordination Degree and Technical Route for Evaluation Coordination refers to the harmonious and virtuous-cycle relationship between two or more kinds of subsystems or elements in a system [9]. Coordinated development refers to an evolution process from junior to senior, from simplicity to complexity or from disorder to order based on the harmonious and virtuous-cycle relationship between subsystems or elements in a system [10]. Consequently, the system coordination of CNSCs refers to an orderly state, characterized by sustainable utilization of resources, sustainable growth of economy, sustainable improvement of environment and sustainable development of society, which can be achieved by reaching the coordination status among the subsystems of resources, economy, environment and society or elements of a system in the process of development and evolution. Sustainability is a continuous optimization process with the change of economy, society and environment rather than a fixed state [11]. From the angle of system theory, sustainable development refers to development at a higher level, which is based on coordinated development of subsystems of resources, economy, environment and society [12]. CNSCs become the carrier of sustainable development. In the development process of CNSCs, sustainable utilization of resources, sustainable growth of economy, sustainable improvement of environment and sustainable development of society play important roles. Therefore, sustainable communities are defined as an open system made up of four subsystems, namely resource subsystem, economy subsystem, environmental subsystem and social subsystem. The four subsystems influence and interact with each other, jointly promoting the improvement and optimization of sustainable communities constantly. Coordination degree, reflecting the harmony degree among subsystems or elements in a system in the development process and the tendency of systems from disorder to order, is taken as a quantitative index to evaluate system coordination [13]. The coordination degree of CNSCs refers to the degree of harmony reached through coupling relationship between subsystems (i.e. coordination of various subsystems) in the construction process of CNSCs. The calculation of system coordination of CNSCs includes four stages. At the first stage, the evaluation index reflecting the development level of CNSCs is established. Next, the method of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to determine the weight of indicators. Measurement of the development level for all subsystems and their coordination is the main priority at the third stage. Finally, the system coordination degree of CNSCs is computed based on all our previous work. 2.2  Evaluation index for coordination degrees of CNSCs Based on the ‘construction and planning index system of CNSCs’ [2] issued by the Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21 and the ‘innovation capability evaluation index system of CNSCs’ [14, 15] issued by Department of Social Development of Ministry of Science and Technology, we proposed the coordination degree evaluation index system (Table 1) through index selection and improvement. Here, the new evaluation index system of CNSCs was divided into four subsystems: that is, resources subsystem (B1), economic subsystem (B2), environmental subsystem (B3) and social subsystem (B4).



J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

925

Table 1:  Evaluation index system of CNSCs. Objective

Subsystems

Index C101: Population family planning rate (%) C102: Natural population growth rate (‰) C103: Forest coverage (%)

B1: Resources subsystem

C104: Per capita area of cultivated farmland (acres) C105: Energy consumption amount per unit  output value of ten thousand Yuan(tons of standard coal equivalent, TCE) C106: Water consumption amount per unit  ­output value of ten thousand Yuan (ton) C201: Annual growth rate of GDP (%) C202: Per-capita GDP (ten thousand yuan) C203: Locally budgetary revenue growth rate (%)

B2: Economic ­subsystem

C204: Proportion of GDP accounted for by  added value of the tertiary industry (%) C205: Per-capita disposable income of urban  households (yuan)

A: Coordination degree of CNSCs

C206: Per-capita net income of rural residents  (yuan) C301: Standard discharge rate of industrial  wastewater (%) C302: Treatment rate of domestic sewage (%) B3: Environmental subsystem

discharge rate of industrial C303: Standard  gases (%) C304: Comprehensive utilization rate of indus trial solid waste (%) C305: Treatment rate of household garbage (%) C306: Per-capita green area of public places  (square meter) C401: Registered urban unemployment rate (%)

B4: Social ­subsystem

C402: Utilization rate of tap water (%) rate of old-age insurance for C403: Coverage  urban workers (%) (Continued)

926 Objective

J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Subsystems

Index rate of social old-age insurC404: Coverage  ance for farmers (%) C405: Number of health workers per thousand  population (person) C406: Cable TV coverage of the population (%) C407:Aeonatal mortality rate (‰) C408: Crime rate (‰) C409: Proportion of fiscal expenditure  ­accounted for by triple expenses ­concerned about science and technology (%) C410: Proportion of every ten thousand popu lation accounted for by college degree or above population (%) of fiscal expenditure accountC411: Proportion  ed for by education spending (%) C412: Illiteracy rate among young and  middle-aged people (‰)

The data need to be normalized by eqn (1).

Z ij =

Xij − m j Sj

(1)

where Xij refers to the original value of Index j, mj refers to the average value of Index j in a selected period of time and Sj refers to the standard deviation of Index j. k

In addition, the conditions w j

nk

≥ 0, ∑ w kj =1 needs to be met, where w kj refers to the weight j =1

of Index j in System k calculated by the method of PCA. Some parameters, such as characteristic value, variance contribution rate and accumulated variance contribution rate of components, need to be computed, and the components with their accumulated variance contribution rates more than 90% are recognized as principal components. Then, the variance contribution rates of principal components are used to obtain the coefficient of indexes in linear combination. After normalization, the weight of indexes is calculated. Equation (2) is used to calculate the development level of four subsystems, namely resources (re), economy (ec), environment (en) and society (so). nk

SDk = ∑ w kj z kj , k ∈ {re,ec,en,so} (2)

j =1



J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

927

Table 2:  Five levels of coordination degree for CNSCs (U). Coordination degree(U)

0.00–0.20

0.21–0.40

0.41–0.60

0.61–0.80

0.81–1.00

Coordination level

Serious imbalance

Medium imbalance

Basic coordination

Good coordination

Excellent coordination

where SDk refers to the development level of System k and w kj refers to the weight of Index j in System k. Equation (3) is used to calculate the coordination degree between all subsystems.

Uij = 1 −

SDi − SD j max ( SDi , SD j )

, 0 ≤ Uij ≤ 1, i, j = 1 4, i ≠ j (3)

where Uij refers to the coordination degree between System i and System j, 0 ≤ Uij ≤ 1. The formula for the coordination degree for the sustainable development of CNSCs is expressed in eqn (4):

U=

1 3 4 ∑ ∑ Uij (4) 6 i =1 j = i +1

where U refers to the coordination degree for the sustainable development of CNSCs, 0 ≤ Uij ≤ 1. If the development level of four subsystems (resources, economic, environmental and social) tends to be in harmony, the coordination degree of CNSCs (U) is in a higher level; on the contrary, if the development level of four subsystems tends to be imbalance, the coordination degree of CNSCs (U) is in a lower level. When four subsystems tends to be perfect coordinate, U =1; on the contrary, once four subsystems tends to be completely uncoordinated, U =0. Based on the principle of clustering analysis and five-level grading method [16], the coordination degrees of CNSCs (U) are divided into five levels (Table 2). 3  DATA PROCESSING 3.1  Data sources The sustainable communities in Chengmai County and Baisha County of Hainan Province were taken for case study on the coordination degree of CNSCs. Chengmai County and Baisha County were approved as national sustainable communities in 2013 and 2014, respectively, and have received extensive attention from experts for their uniqueness of tropical islands. Commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology of Hainan province, our team from Huazhong University of Science and Technology prepared the construction plan for the sustainable communities in Chengmai County and Baisha County. Chengmai County is located in the northwest of Hainan Island with 114.33 km of coastline and abundant ecological and historical resources. Baisha County is a typical minority autonomous county located in the west center of Hainan Island. Table 3 shows the construction status of the sustainable communities in Chengmai County and Baisha County. All related data are from ‘Construction Plan of National Sustainable Community of Chengmai County (2012–2016)’ [17] and ‘Construction Plan of National Sustainable Community

928

J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Table 3: Construction status of sustainable communities in Chengmai County and Baisha County. Item

Chengmai County

Subject

Protection of resources and environDevelopment of ecological indusment in ecological core areas, inheritries and improvement of urban and tance of the Li nationality culture and rural livelihood at the county scale improvement of people’s livelihood in in the tropical island area of China the tropical island area of China

Objective

Ecological county New industrialized county Leisure and low-carbon tourism county Demonstration base of high-efficiency tropical agriculture

Intensive ecological agriculture base Processing and trade base of green agricultural and forestry products Leisure and longevity preservation tourism resort Demonstration area of ecology protection

Ecological agriculture New industries Low-carbon tourism industry People's livelihood

Protection of environment and natural resources Tropical eco-agriculture Ecological tourism industry Social issues and people's livelihood Protection and inheritance of Li nationality culture

Priority

Baisha County

of Baisha County (2014–2018)’ [18]. The planned construction period for the sustainable communities in both counties is 5 years, and the base year for index calculation was 2011 and 2013, respectively. 3.2  Results from model 3.2.1  Data analysis By the method mentioned in Section 2, the program SPSS v19.0 was used to process the data from the national sustainable communities in Chengmai County and Baisha County from 2011 to 2018. Table 4 illustrates the weight of all indexes. 3.2.2  Calculation of coordination degrees Equation (2) was applied to calculate the levels of sustainable development for all subsystems with the results shown in Table 5. Equation (3) was applied to calculate the coordination degrees among all subsystems with results shown in Table 6. The results show that the coordination degree for the sustainable community of Chengmai County in 2011 is 0.531, which belongs to the level of Basic Coordination according to Table 2, whereas the coordination degree of the sustainable community of Baisha County in 2013 is 0.650, which belongs to the level of Good Coordination. Although Chengmai County was better than Baisha County in the aspects of economic foundation and resources, Chengmai County was worse in system coordination of development.



929

J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Table 4:  Component matrix. Index

Integrated score

Weight

Chengmai Baisha Chengmai Baisha

Index

Integrated score

Weight

Chengmai Baisha Chengmai Baisha

C101

0.899

0.899

0.243

0.243 C304

0.900

0.900

0.167

0.167

C102

-0.902

-0.902

0.013

0.013 C305

0.885

0.885

0.166

0.166

C103

0.902

0.902

0.244

0.244 C306

0.902

0.902

0.167

0.167

C104

-0.900

-0.900

0.013

0.013 C401

0.894

0.894

0.141

0.141

C105

0.902

0.902

0.244

0.244 C402

0.849

0.849

0.138

0.138

C106

0.902

0.902

0.244

0.244 C403

-0.868

-0.868

0.010

0.010

C201

0.900

0.900

0.199

0.199 C404

-0.782

-0.782

0.016

0.016

C202

0.900

0.900

0.199

0.199 C405

-0.809

-0.809

0.014

0.014

C203

0.872

0.872

0.196

0.196 C406

0.838

0.838

0.137

0.137

C204

-0.863

-0.863

0.014

0.014 C407

0.812

0.812

0.135

0.135

C205

0.860

0.860

0.195

0.195 C408

0.740

0.740

0.130

0.130

C206

0.879

0.879

0.197

0.197 C409

0.699

0.699

0.127

0.127

C301

0.902

0.902

0.167

0.167 C410

-0.560

-0.560

0.033

0.033

C302 C303

0.898 0.901

0.898 0.901

0.167 0.167

0.167 C411 0.167 C412

-0.560 0.160

-0.560 0.160

0.033 0.086

0.033 0.086

Table 5:  Sustainable development level of subsystems. Resource system

Economic system

Time

Environmental system

Chengmai Baisha Chengmai Baisha Chengmai 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2.071 2.018 1.927 1.874 1.978 2.133

0.518 0.716 0.945 1.163 1.375 1.284

2.078 1.346 1.618 1.930 2.309 2.718

0.905 0.490 0.673 0.924 1.334 1.675

0.469 1.312 1.937 2.473 2.814 2.996

Social system

Baisha Chengmai Baisha

0.251 0.450 0.599 0.985 1.669 2.045

1.468 1.417 1.971 2.171 2.364 2.609

0.268 0.779 0.888 1.123 1.259 1.684

Table 6:  Coordination degree. Region

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Chengmai

0.531

0.812

0.908

0.857

0.839

0.842

0.650

0.837

0.851

0.913

Baisha

2017

2018

0.895

0.841

930

J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

3.2.3  Development trend analysis According to Table 5, the coordination degrees for both Chengmai County and Baisha County rise significantly from 0.531 in 2011 to 0.908 in 2013 and from 0.650 in 2013 to 0.841 in 2018, respectively, after the planned construction is completed. The state of coordinated development tends to be stable, and the coordination between the subsystems has been effectively improved, as shown in Fig. 2.

Figure 2: 2011–2018 cooperation level of National Sustainable Communities in Hainan Province.



J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

931

4  CONCLUSIONS In the 1980s, China started its environmental protection policies and sustainable development strategy. CNSCs, as the primary national program for comprehensive demonstration of sustainable development, achieved an increasingly significant progress since 1986 and lack of a set of appropriate evaluation methodology. In this article, the concept of coordination degree for CNSCs was proposed, an evaluation index system for coordination degrees of CNSCs was set up and a hierarchy for coordination degrees to evaluate sustainable development levels was presented (e.g. see Tables 1 and 2). Besides, the evaluation index system for coordination degrees of CNSCs is based on the resource, environment, economic and social subsystems, which can identify the main factors that affect coordinated development of CNSCs and can also weaken the influences caused by the differences in economic and social levels between different regions from the results of evaluation and comparison. The evaluation model for coordination degree of CNSCs has good comparability and operability and can provide decision support for evaluation of coordinated development ability, improvement of management level and promotion of construction experiences of CNSCs. CNSCs have already developed into an enormous network platform for sustainable communities (e.g. see Fig. 1), which distribute in different regions and include various development types. To achieve coordinate development among resources, economy, environment and society is the objective for CNSCs in the future. At last, some policy implication for CNSCs was presented: (1) stimulate sustainable technology innovation and application in CNSCs; (2) encourage CNSCs to explore environmental governance innovation mechanism; (3) attach great importance to the undeveloped and resources-rich region; (4) promote social participation in the planning and construction of CNSCs. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study is supported by Key Project of National Science and Technology Support Program ‘Green Ecological Village Planning and Construction Monitoring Technology Research and Demonstration’ (2014BAL04B03-3). REFERENCES [1] Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Introduction to sustainable communities, available at http://www.acca21.org.cn/local/eindex.htm. (accessed 16 August 2015). [2] Department of Rural and Social Development of Ministry of Science and Technology & Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Study and practice of the China National Sustainable Communities, Social Sciences Academic Press: Beijing, 2006. [3] He, G.H. & Liu, X.M., Construction management reformation and innovation of China National Sustainable Communities, Social Sciences Academic Press: Beijing, 2012. [4] Wu, J.X. & Wang, X.M., Actions of low-carbon construction for cities responding to climate change impacts in China, Proceedings of the 2011 World Sustainable Building Conference, Helsinki, Finland, 2011. [5] Sadownik, B. & Jaccard, M., Sustainable energy and urban form in China: the relevance of community energy management. Energy Policy, 10(4), pp. 520–527, 2014. [6] Hua, H. & Xiong, Y.H., Research on Assessment of Urban Transportation Low-carbonization Development, 2013 International Conference on Materials, transportation and Engineering (CMTEE 2013), Taichung, Taiwan, 2013.

932

J.X. Wu, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

[7] Bicik, V., Holub, O. & Marik, K., Platform for coordination of energy generation and consumption in residential neighborhoods. Innovative Smart Grid Technologies (ISGT Europe), 3rd IEEE PES International Conference and Exhibition, pp. 1–7, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isgteurope.2012.6465610 [8] Zhang, X.L. & Huang, S.L., Theory and Application on Coordination Degree of ­Population, Economic Development and Ecological Environment, China Environmental Science Press: Beijing, pp. 23–26, 2008. [9] Wang, Q.H. & Yang, S.H., An approach to evaluation of sustainability for Guangzhou’s urban ecosystem. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 10(1), pp. 69–81, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504500309469787 [10] Zhang, R., An empirical study on the correlation and coordination degree of linkage development between manufacturing and logistics. Journal of Software, 12(7), pp. 2800–2807, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.4304/jsw.7.12.2800-2807 [11] Soubbotina, T.P., Beyond economic growth: an introduction to sustainable development (Second Edition), World Bank Institute, 2004. [12] Roseland, M., Sustainable community development: integrating environmental, economic, and social objectives. Progress in planning, 54(2), pp. 73–132, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0305-9006(00)00003-9 [13] Zulplpiya, M., Analysis of the ecology-economy coordination degree in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang. China Asian Journal of Chemistry, 25(16), pp. 9034–9040, 2013. [14] Department of Social Development of Ministry of Science and Technology, Innovation capability monitor questionnaire of China National Sustainable Communities, http://www.acca21.org.cn/local/experi/syqdev/notice20140331.htm [15] Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, China National Sustainable Communities’ innovation capability evaluation report 2014, Science and Technology Literature Press: Beijing, 2014. [16] Chen, H.R. &Wang, X.M., Study of China National Sustainable Community’s classification evaluation method based on clustering analysis. China Population, ­Resources and Environment, 20(3), pp. 149–154, 2010. [17] Chengmai County People’s Government & Huazhong University of Science and ­Technology, General plan of sustainable community of Chengmai country, Hainan province(2012-2016), 2011. [18] Baisha County People’s Government & Huazhong University of Science and Technology, General plan of sustainable community of Baisha country, Hainan province (20142018), 2013.

N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 933–945

PUBLIC SPACE REGENERATION STRATEGIES: THE CASE OF SALOU N. SALVADO1, I. DE RIVERA2 & D. LORENZO2 de Proyectos Arquitectónicos de la UPC, Spain. 2Unidad Predepartamental de Arquitectura, URV, Spain.

1Departamento

ABSTRACT Salou, which is one of the many highly specialized tourist resorts located on the Spanish Mediterranean coast, is a hundred kilometres south of Barcelona. Within its narrow boundaries of 1.481 ha, Salou hosts 7.4 million overnight stays per year and is home to 52 hotels. A ratio which ranks Salou amongst the tenth most visited municipalities in Spain [1]. Distance from Salou’s historical town centre, the area of Carles Buigas Avenue (CB) emerges as being the heart of the municipality’s tourism and leisure industry. Salou developed, as did so many other Spanish coastal touristic locations, during the sixties and seventies as a consequence of the increasing demand for sun and beach destinations amongst the European and Spanish middle classes. Unfortunately, the “ageing” of this built up area clamours for close attention today. The visible physical degradation of the property is becoming a cause for concern and preoccupation amongst the main property owners and investors: public administration, hotel managers, shopkeepers and neighbours. Hotels emerge as the key problem within the set physical boundaries of this study. They occupy approximately 50% of the total land surface, 28 out of a total of 52 hotels within the town being concentrated in that area. This accumulation of hotels also breaks the particularity of the predominance of second residences which is so customary along the Spanish Coast. This paper delves into the data and proposals obtained from analysing the public space of the CB area. Similarly, as a consequence of the previous analysis, a set of proposals for intervention are also presented. The proposals are conceived to be developed within different time scales, in response to political and social willingness and economic capacity. The objective of the work is to induce an urban and tourism paradigm shift in the area, thus facilitating the emergence of a new tourism model. Solutions are urgently needed to provide specific answers to a particular scenario, which has similitudes to those of other Mediterranean Coastal Developments specialized in tourism activities, which too, after being operative for more than forty years, are suffering from deterioration or abandonment. Despite it still being an open process, the study understands that due to the complexity of the committed task and the scale of the area, the goal will require the active commitment and collaboration of the property owners (administration, hotel managers, investors and neighbours). Keywords: coastal planning, coastal tourism, ecology, public space quality, sustainable development, tourism specialization, urban decay, urban design urban regeneration, urban strategy.

1  INTRODUCTION The Mediterranean coastal town of Salou is located 100 km south of Barcelona in the geographical locality of Camp de Tarragona, An area with a GDP growth 3 points over the Catalunya average between 2001–2005 [2]. Camp de Tarragona itself is a complex area, in which towns, tourism and industry have coexisted in a very intense and possibly contradictory manner since the last century. Salou is the main town of the Mediterranean coastal tourist destination known as “Costa Dorada” (Fig. 1). The town grew around its commercial port, which was very important up until the late nineteenth century, from which it developed into a summer and tourist resort in the early twentieth century, thanks to the railway connection linking it to Reus. The train popularly called the “carrilet” transported bathers and holidaymakers to the beaches of “Poniente” and “Levante” (Figs 1 and 2), two of the largest coastal beaches located in the flat area of the municipality of Salou. © 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-933-945

934

N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Figure 1:  The “Costa Dorada” context.

The tourist developments along the Mediterranean coast are of a seasonal nature [3]. Salou’s population growth is linked to tourism; it has high variations between seasons [4]. In the summer months the population increases by six, which defines the rhythm of economic activity [5]. Salou is a benchmark for tourism on the Catalan coast, and was placed in the tenth position with respect to the number of overnight stays in Spain 2013 [6]. The municipality has a total of 69 tourist establishments and 3 campsites, providing a total of 30,000 to 37,000 hotel places (beds) [7, 8]. Its economic activity is concentrated in the months of July and August, although there is a growing tendency towards extending the season. However, at present, there is no activity whatsoever in the hotel sector between the second fortnight of November and the beginning of the second half of February, coinciding with the temporary closure of the Port Aventura theme park. The urban development has been polarized during the development of the town. Whilst the oldest hotel structures (developed during the 60’s and the 70’s) are concentrated at one end of the town around the Carles Buigas (CB) Avenue, the newest ones are concentrated around the theme park (Port Aventura), and the urban facilities are located at the other end of the town in the area known as Barcelona Street. After forty years, the area requires a thorough revision due to evidence of urban degradation. The initial analysis has been focused on three main areas: common space, hotel facilities, and commercial and leisure activities. The results have shown a lack of public and private investment within the area, and a risk of obsolescence of the urban and tourism model. The hotel facilities have not been refurbished or renovated since their initial development, apart



N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

935

Figure 2:  Hotels renovation and opening. from essential maintenance work. Moreover, the commercial activities have grown out of control as a result of an increasing demand for specialized leisure and night activities. Over a period of four months, from January to April 2014, graphic and statistical documents have been undertaken to identify the logic and organization behind the area of study [9]. The analysis considers three aspects: the physical constraints of the site, the urban constraints and the economic and use constraints. Drawing out the area’s existing urban developments was our main analytical method, it was necessarily the starting point of our efforts to learn about the site [10]. Understanding how the city functions in real life is essential for the creation of a consistent strategy to improve social and economic life [11]. After this analysis the team focused on developing a diagnosis that would allow the development of specific proposals in an environment capable of regenerating and reversing the current degradation tendency. In this article we present those problems affecting public administration and which directly affect the quality of public space, design and planning. 2  AREA OF STUDY 2.1  Main data The area of study is located in the South-East of the town of Salou, and its backbone is the Carles Buigas (CB) Avenue. This road has a great deal of commercial activity, and

936

N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

the area acts as the link between the town centre and the Passeig de Jaume I: the town’s historic waterfront and major tourism and commercial hub. The area of study covered is 768,082 m2. It is an urban area, consisting mainly of detached buildings mostly used for hotels and apartment-hotels, although there are some small isolated summer houses and apartment blocks used as second residences. The area we are analysing has the particularity of being the point where the topographic coastal relief begins that configures Salou Cape, another touristic area of Salou, which boarders the Pineda (Vila-seca). Within its limits one can clearly define two specific zones that are delimited by Carles Buigas Avenue: that of the northern zone with much larger plots and topographically a lot flatter (only the Park of Salou presents a slope and a limit between its own plot of land and the surrounding streets); and the southern zone, which borders the Sea and whose topographical relief is formed by cliffs and small bays: The cove of the beach of “Capellans” and the inlet of the “Llenguadets”. The first centred within the area and the other located on its extreme. It is therefore in this area, delimited between Carles Buigas Avenue and the Sea, where the plots of land have to topographically resolve their relationship with the street, where one can discover conflictive points of contact between the built up space and the natural relief of the land. While the smaller plots with isolated buildings dedicated to housing have a more friendly relationship with the street and the topography, in contrast the hotel plots that have a much greater dimension present large walls or barriers that separate the public space from the private (Fig. 3). This difference is a consequence of the need to generate a large flat surface area to locate the hotel’s pool and recreation area. In the plan, Fig. 4, by means of drawing the boundaries and topographical changes one can recognize and differentiate the plots that are more than a meter above street level (dark green) and those that are sunken below the public space level (light green), giving us a clear idea of the walls and vertical cuts caused by this cross between topography and use. 2.2  Mobility The neighbourhood is connected to the town of Salou, to Reus and Tarragona through three main axis: Carles Buigas Avenue, Principat d’Andorra Avenue and Pompeu Fabra Avenue. Although Brussel·les Street was the main connection between Salou Cape and the Coast Road in the past, it has lost its importance nowadays due to its continuity being cut off by the tourist resort Lumine, which acts as a barrier between the urban area of Salou and Salou Cape. However, it still maintains its importance as an inter-municipal connector. An example of this is the public transport line that connects them in this part of town: the line CambrilsSalou-Salou Cape-Tarragona, which provides service to residents and visitors nearby. The other streets give an internal service.

Figure 3:  Street walls along the property plots in Salou.



N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

937

Figure 4:  Modifications of the topography of the site.

Carles Buigas Avenue, which provides commercial continuity to Passeig Jaume I, is undoubtedly the backbone of the whole area and requires special attention in this study. The other roads that also have more pedestrian intensity are: the continuation of Colon Street via the coast with the new “Seaside Path” that leads to Llarga beach, and the streets of Amposta and Valls that connect the area to the beach of Capellans. Other data to consider is the large amount of public land designated to roads and parking. Of a total area of public domain comprising 22,3 Ha (which includes streets, pavements, pedestrian zones, parks and gardens), the area designated to roads is 92.198,3 m2 (41.24%) and the public parking area represents 11,68% (26.164 m2), some 2090 places, while the private parking area represents 3,94% of the entire study area, some 330 places (Fig. 5). The high number of free parking spaces available on the street has the effect of making alternative payment parking, whether municipal or that offered by hotels in the area, most of the time under-used (Fig. 6). 2.3  Public Space The area in the public domain accounts for 30% of the study area (223.579,4 m2), of which only 38.41% is guaranteed space for pedestrians 24 hours a day (pavements and pedestrian streets), 20.35% is occupied by parks and gardens with restricted opening hours, and the remaining 41.24% is allocated to vehicles. Concerning this 30% of the public domain, the pedestrian-vehicles hierarchy is unclear, the space exclusively dedicated to pedestrians not being very fluid or continuous. In an area that receives 11,000 visitors in its moments of maximum stress, there are few streets exclusively for pedestrians. Only Zaragoza Street, which has a commercial character, and the “Seaside Path”, which is a promenade in front of the sea that gives continuity to the promenade of the Llarga beach are the sample of public pedestrian space and easily accessible.

938

N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Figure 5:  Parking areas.

Figure 6:  Summer – winter parking.



N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

939

If we pay attention to the quality of the pedestrian space within the field of study, we realize that the topographic factor and the orientation of the plots clearly aggravate the pedestrian permeability of the southern sector. As previously mentioned, the steep topography has given place to major platforms that level the plots, resulting in a hermetic and impassable limit, and the quality impoverishment of streets and public spaces. The buildings located between Brussel·les Street and Tortosa Street, as well as those located between Brussel·les Street and Gavina Street create an impassable wall or barrier for pedestrians, which is only surpassed by the views and its relation with the Sea. In other streets, without the added value of visual contact with the Sea, the quality of public space is even lower (Fig. 4). The study of the types of trees within this area has allowed us to differentiate between deciduous and evergreen, the height and the density of shadow, establishing the level of comfort of the streets in the summer. It was considered that streets with dense vegetation were in no doubt the streets most desired for pedestrian routes. Observing Fig. 7, we can establish that the presence of trees is concentrated mainly on the Carles Buigas Avenue in the northern sector of the area, with evergreen trees of a certain height. In the southern sector the trees are only concentrated on the main streets – Brussel·les Street, Amposta Street and Vendrell Street - with smaller deciduous trees on Vendrell Street and palm trees on Colon Street. The pavement width of most of the streets is less than 2 m, except the East-West longitudinal axis and two of the North-South transversal routes, Amposta and Vendrell Streets, coinciding with tree areas. 3  SPECIFIC PROPOSALS TO GET RID OF THE DEGRADATION PROCESS IN PUBLIC SPACE On the basis of all the analysis developed over more than a year and synthesized in the previous points, the following conclusions are obtained: 3.1  Streets and the quality of public space 1. The perimeter condition of Brussel·les Street, the Coastal Road and Pompeu Fabra Avenue allow placing a ring-road access, emptying the traffic within the centre of the area and establishing a hierarchy between streets, pacifying the area and correctly dimensioning the pavements and roads, giving priority to pedestrians and eliminating the unevenness between the road and sidewalk. The scenario posed considers the reduction of vehicles within the area of Carles Buigas Avenue by reducing the amount of circulation directions and expanding the exclusive scope or priority for pedestrians. The pedestrian zoning of Carles Buigas Avenue, will convert it into the hub of a network where pedestrians have priority and where the streets perpendicular to this Avenue recognize its new condition and become restricted access streets. Vehicle access will only be possible to load and unload goods within a restricted time schedule and to provide access to car parks and hotels. Mobility will be complemented by public transport: bicycles and electric buses, which together with improved accessibility and urban space for pedestrians will ensure pleasant journeys and a reduction in time. 2. The reorganisation of the traffic hierarchy, the circulation hierarchy and the defining of the streets for pedestrian use only leads us onto the necessary rethinking of the parking system in the area. It is understood that actual parking needs are of diverse natures.

940

N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Figure 7: Trees and shadows.

1. Those of the residents, who can count on having or not a private parking space in the buildings in which they reside. 2. Those of the visitors of short or long term duration who stay in holiday homes and apartments, who can count on having or not a private parking space in the buildings in which they reside. 3. Those of the visitors of short and medium term duration who stay in hotels and can count on parking in those places. 4. Those of day visitors who expect to find parking in the area related to the nature of the activities available (beach/restaurants/nightlife) in a defined time zone of a different duration but never lasting more than 24 hours.



N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

941

5. Those of occasional day visitors with the desire or need to do something of short duration in the area. It is a question of parking needs which at present are indiscriminately covered given the existing parking spaces in the public area. This surface area available for car-parks in the street causes the alternative public or private parking, such as that offered by hotels, with a ratio of five rooms per car, to be ineffective. The road-system reorganization proposed implies gaining public space in the area for pedestrians, by removing car-parks from a significant part of the public space and organizing a system of parking spaces in such a manner as to take into account the different needs of the users. It proposes to integrate a part of the parking spaces in the accommodation facilities, which should have a specific and integrated management system, and study the relocation of the remaining parking spaces in parking lots located in the outskirts of the area or in other parts of Salou. 3.2  Public space limit versus open private space The detailed study of the access to hotels, together with the creation of service roads should resolve the topographical discontinuities between the street and the interior of the plot of land, fomenting a good relationship between the two and providing more permeability between public and private space, but we must also ensure that public parks and gardens do not generate a barrier with their own streets. From a thorough analysis of the hotels, one can determine that the majority of the hotels in the area have a type of programme layout on the ground floor comprising: an entrance hall, reception and a vertical communications core, lounge or living area of the hotel, service area, bar-restaurant and other client services. Swimming-pools and recreational areas are located in the open outdoor space. The proposal suggests the greater nexus that some of the services included in the hotels, such as bar, restaurant, boutique, gym or spa, could have in connection with the public space thus providing a new relationship between the hotel and the city (Fig 8). These proposals may have different degrees of intervention, involving more or less investment and a greater or lesser implication of the public sector. According to this implication three levels of intervention are proposed, taking into account that each one of them will implicate the latter: 1. Internal restructuring of the programme of services for the public within the hotel’s own surroundings. 2. Redistribution and organisation of the outdoor areas of the hotel and their relationship with the street. 3. Interchange of building development potential and management of the floors below ground level. 3.3  Quality of public space The preservation of the vegetation mass of the hotel and residential plots of land as well as the public space should be guaranteed. It is imperative to rethink and increase the quantity of trees in the pacified and re-urbanized streets as we have found many streets where trees are

942

N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

Figure 8: Construction of pedestrian zone in Carles Buigas. none existent. A good selection of the type of trees in the streets will ensure the areas of shade, providing an increase of freshness and therefore comfort for pedestrians. Carles Buigas is an urban sector with little vegetation, very urbanized and not very permeable, with a very high cut off surface. To increase the vegetation four levels of action are proposed: 1. In terms of hotel and private open space, measures (regulations) will be necessary to maintain the transpiration of the land, avoiding paving to the extent possible and promoting the introduction of native species of vegetation that help improve the quality of the air. 2. The creation of new areas of vegetation and new inland “corridors” of biodiversity. This action would be linked to the reduction of vehicle mobility and would create streets with a strong presence of vegetation and pavement transpiration. 3. According to new EU directives on public space, having high rates of enclosed urban areas is a serious factor which should be mitigated [12]. This district has areas that clearly exceed this percentage. There are constructive solutions that improve pavement transpiration, termed SUDS (Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems). 4. In terms of landscaping, one could consider planting vegetation on roofs that have a strong public presence, or that could be visible from the hotels. This intervention could



N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

943

take place on the roofs of one-level-high commercial premises or the roof of the apartment building of the Capellans beach which has a serious impact on the street. 4  CONCLUSIONS Despite the proposals presented for Salou have similitudes with similar cases implemented in Spain: Playa de Palma (Mallorca), Costa del Sol Occidental (Andalucia), San Bartolomé de Tirajana (Gran Canaria) and Puerto de la Cruz (Tenerife) [13], the strategy differs on the innovation, focus on the methodology rather than in the final proposal. It does not aim the development of every particular proposal, which could delay the beginning of the project, but the boot of the process through small and low budget interventions to test their capacity to shift none desired urban trends at the same time that work as a catalyser to transform the area. Likewise, the project attempts to involve public and private stakeholders in the funding of the project. While in touristic areas under process of decay the working as usual process of doing was to financially support the regeneration with public funds [13], the context set after the 2008 financial crisis has required the reorganization of previous models. Public financial capacity, especially from municipal administrations, falls diminishing the administrative capacity to impact in urban regeneration through assuming the implied costs. In consequence, innovative solutions are required to overcome the blocking situation. First, contrary to similar urban regeneration programs with many levels of the administration involved that make the plan inoperative, the Salou urban strategy aims to work bottom-up. There is an absence of other administrations further than the municipality in the managing process. This is reducing bureaucracy, the scale of the plan and the risk of the excessive control from higher levels of governance within the administration [14]. The excessive aspiration of other related plans has driven to the failure of the development by an enormous scale that makes the process inoperative (Palma de Mallorca) and its magnanimous associated costs, also excessively supported on the public administrations (Puerto de la Cruz) [13]. Second, contrary to common regeneration programs, this plan aims to be compressive by the number of sectors involve in the analysis of the study and the development of the proposals [15]. Moreover, public participation is considered key to guarantee the success of the urban regeneration process [15]. Thus, further from previous meeting with the identified main stakeholders in the area: administration and hotels managers, workshops with neighbours, retailers, tourist operators, etc. are being programmed for the summer of 2016, previous to the development of any specific proposal for development. Third, taking advantage of the location in the area of 28 of the 52 the hotels in the municipality, hotel investors were identified as key stakeholders for the development of the urban strategy. Hotel investors are particularly interested in improving urban conditions in the area, pushed by economic and personal reasons1. Moreover, since the tourism market has succeeded in overcoming the crisis period after 2008, hotel companies have today the financial capacity to act. Likewise, their relative small number of representatives (less than the total number of hotels, concentrated in few big hotel groups), contribute to make approval and support of the strategies easier and faster, reducing too extensive times of similar plans [13]. Thus, this initiative aims to, in one hand promote (local) administrative leadership and in the other hand involve private sector with specific and relevant roles to guarantee the success of the process [16]. The plan sets enhance low cost initiatives developed and funded by the local administration to improve public areas, at the same time that, costly developments like 1  The most relevant hotel managers in the area are local families with strong roots in the territory.

944

N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

hotel infrastructure renovations are supported by the private sector, despite coordinated and shared under a public-private vision. REFERENCES [1] Hosbec, D. d. E., HOSBEC Monitor. Informe de coyuntura turística Benidorm Costa Blanca Comunidad Valenciana, 2015. (Fuente: HOSBEC, INE y elaboración propia; HOSBEC 1er Semenstre 2015), available at: http://docplayer.es/1810787-Hosbecmonitor-informe-de-coyuntura-turisticabenidorm-costa-blanca-comunidad-valenciana. html (accessed 11 December 2015). [2] Delgado, X., Xarxa arterial del Camp de Tarragona, Barcelona: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), 2004. [3] Sabban, M., Report on sustainable tourism in the Mediterranean. (Assembly of European Regions; Ile-deFrance Regional Council/FR. 4th Meeting of ARLEM’s Commission for sustainable development (SUDEV) on 16 January 2013 and adopted during the 4th ARLEM plenary session on 18 February 2013 in Brussels, Belgium, 2012, available at: http://cor.europa.eu/en/activities/arlem/activities/meetings/Documents/sudevreport2012-tourism-en.pdf (accessed 15 December 2015). [4] Anton Clavé, S., Diferenciació i reestructuració de l’espai turístic : processos i tendències al litoral de Tarragona. Tarragona: El Mèdol, 1997. [5] Salvadó, N., De-Rivera, I., Salvadó, T. & Lorenzo, D., A declining coastal tourist resort model analysis. The case of Avinguda Carles Buigas in Salou, Costa Dorada. Opportunities for regeneration. WIT. Transactions on Built Environment, 148, WIT Press, 2015, ISSN 1743-3509. [6] Observatorio del FEDECT, Fundación de Estudios Turísticos de la Costa Dorada, available at: http://www.pct-turisme.cat/, 2014. [7] Ajuntament de Salou, Àrea de Promoció Econòmica. Dades socioeconòmiques del municipi de Salou, 2012. [8] IDESCAT, Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya, available at: http://www.idescat.cat, 2014. [9] Salvadó, N., De-Rivera, I., Salvadó, T. & Lorenzo, D., L’avinguda de Carles Buigas de Salou: estratègies de regeneració urbana. Primer document, anàlisi de l’estat actual rum[lab], grup de recerca arquitectura, territorio i paisatge, Unitat predepartamental d’arquitectura, Escola d’arquitectura de Reus, 2014. [10] Venturi, R., Izenour, S., & Scott Brown, D., Learning from Las Vegas - Revised Edition: The Forgotten Symbolism of Architectural Form Paperback, 1977. [11] Jacobs, J., The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Random House: New York, 1961. [12] European Commission., Directorate-General for the Environment., 2012. Guidelines on best practice to limit, mitigate or compensate soil sealing. Luxembourg: Publications Office, (accessed 29 December 2015). [13] Rodríguez, I. & Such, M.-P., La política turística española de apoyo a la renovación y reestructuración de destinos turísticos maduros: una valoración a partir de las experiencias piloto recientes [en línea] Fecha de consulta: dd-mm-aa. En: ACE: Architecture, City and Environment = Arquitectura, Ciudad y Entorno, 9(25), pp. 437–466, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5821/ace.9.25.3635 [14] Simancas, M., de Souza, A. & Núñez, M., La renovación de los espacios públicos de las áreas turísticas consolidadas. In Destinos turísticos maduros ante el cambio.



N. Salvado, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

945

Reflexiones desde Canarias, eds : R. Hernàndez & A. Santana, Instituto Universitario de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales de la Universidad de La Laguna: Producciones Gráficas S.L. pp. 183–216. [15] Alterman, R., A comparative view of neighborhood regeneration programs in nine countries: are the lessons transferable? Urban Affairs Review (Formerly Urban Affairs Quarterly), 30(5), pp. 749–765, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/107808749503000514 [16] Simancas, M. & Moises, R., La renovación edificatoria de la oferta turística de alojamiento en destinos consolidados: La experiencia de Canarias. Cuadernos De Geografia, 87, pp. 23—44.

A. Domnikov, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017) 946–955

RISK-ORIENTED INVESTMENT IN MANAGEMENT OF OIL AND GAS COMPANY VALUE A. DOMNIKOV, G. CHEBOTAREVA, P. KHOMENKO & M. KHODOROVSKY Academic Department of banking and investment management, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Russia.

ABSTRACT Capital-intensive investment projects with high level of risk are the driver of the company’s value growth, but under certain conditions they may lead to a default. The financial cycle specifics of the projects in oil and gas industry related to the need for significant initial investment, as well as structural specifics of raising capital, determine the necessity of an integrated and comprehensive assessment of investment risks. The article offers the author’s approach to assessing the impact of investments on the value of oil and gas business, based on RAROC (risk-adjusted return on capital) indicator. A method of an investment project-risk assessment is devised taking into account modern approaches to risk management in the industry. Proposed is a selective algorithm for making an investment decision on the basis of a double criterion index of efficiency, with due regard to the taken risks and comparison of target and unacceptable solvency. The practical focus of the research is shown on the example of investment portfolio analysis of an oil and gas company. The results of the research can be used in the process of financial decision making by management of oil and gas companies, and by investors and analysts. Keywords: economic capital, investment risks, investments, oil and gas company, RAROC model, selection of investment projects, unacceptable risk, value management.

1  INTRODUCTION Defining a modern model of the world economic development, the oil and gas business is characterized by the presence of a significant number of risks, that have a negative impact on the performance of companies in the industry. At the same time, at implementation of investment projects of oil and gas companies associated with the construction of new or modernization of existing facilities, there appear further complications related to high-capital intensity and long payback period of investments. These factors create a contradiction in making objective investment decisions, hinder the industry development and determine the main challenges facing an oil and gas company. These tasks shall be solved by the development of an approach, which will allow a ­comprehensive evaluation not only of the efficiency of an oil and gas company as a whole, but also of each of its subsidiaries, as well as identifying, with the account of the industry specifics, those of them that are unprofitable and lower the economic value of the company. The result of this research is the author’s approach to assessing the value of oil and gas companies, based on the RAROC model, which allows evaluating the investment effectiveness in various areas of business and types of risk, and developing a program of the company cost management. In the future, the use of such tools must become the basis of making strategic management decisions related to the optimization of oil and gas companies.

This paper is part of the Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Risk Analysis (RISK 2016) www.witconferences.com

© 2017 WIT Press, www.witpress.com ISSN: 1743-7601 (paper format), ISSN: 1743-761X (online), http://www.witpress.com/journals DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V12-N5-946-955



A. Domnikov, et al., Int. J. Sus. Dev. Plann. Vol. 12, No. 5 (2017)

947

2  VALUATION OF OIL AND GAS COMPANY Valuation of business pursues a variety of goals, both strategic and operational in nature, and related to the decisions of owners and top management of a corporation. In this article, the main purpose of the valuation of oil and gas companies means not only assessing the level of efficiency of the business as a whole and its individual areas, but also the development on this basis of a cost management mechanism for oil and gas companies based on the quality of managerial decisions. The original concept of company valuation based on the method of economic value added (EVA), as proposed in the 80s of twentieth century by Stern Stewart & Co c­ onsulting company, was further developed in the framework of RAROC models. This model allows accounting of the existing risks in the company as a whole and in its individual units, applying the basic principles of the theory of economic capital. Under this approach, the value of the business is being transformed on the basis of profitability, adjusted for the level of accepted risks as shown in eqn (1):

EP = ( RAROC − HR ) * ECAP (1)

where EP - economic profit, which characterizes the added value of a business; RAROC risk-adjusted return on capital; HR – hurdle rate, which characterizes the required profitability of the stock capital, assessed through CAPM model; ECAP – value of economic capital. Given the RAROC transformation into economic profits, it is easy to show, which investments create value and which ones destroy it, based on the comparison of RAROC and HR. If the value of RAROC exceeds the hurdle rate, the investment value is created, if RAROC